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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread
CORRECTION
CON jump 5 to draw level with LAB in today's Populus poll
Lab 34 (+2), Con 34 (+5), LD 8 (-), UKIP 15 (-3), Greens 5 (-1),
0
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Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,108
Eh? Surely that is either 1 or 2?
How's those shares of yours and your second home????/... How many kitchens do you have.. Labour luvvies who try to pretend they are just regular ordinary man of the people guys seem to acquire them and lots of money?
How much do you think that ED "man of the people" 's total worth is now he is married, their net joint income and how many kitchens all told..
If you buy at £10 a seat and they get 1, you lost £8. If they get 2, you win £2.
We will get 5 years of what the French call 'Co Habitation' and the Americans term a lame duck presidency. It will be political paralysis with the Government blocked from making any serious policy changes and an orgy of pointless political game-playing to fill the vacuum.
Good. There is far too much law anyway.
The Tories meanwhile get a chance to tear themselves apart after Cameron is ousted while not being torn to pieces in the ratings as they get a boost from the few people who don't like the SNP and Labour working together to stop them, allowing the new leadership to bemoan how if only Cameron had listened to the right he would surely have won a majority.
And under his breathe to her "The bloody wife can see us!"
@SophyRidgeSky: Miliband says he won't get into how other parties may or not vote after election, when I ask if he'll rule out confidence & supply with SNP
or not.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31904118
We could have a parliament where there is less change for the sake of dogma or to undo the other guy's changes. Change only when approved by cross bench majorities. Doesn't sound that bad actually.
It won't be troubling the barge pole....
18 months ago I would have bought it, it seemed like that potentiality would have led to a boost by now. But now? Not buying it.
I refer of course to tomorrow's Budget statement and specifically to the colour of George Osborne's tie, which surely simply HAS to be BLUE.
There's a huge disparity in the odds between the four bookies covering this market -
Betfred go 4/7, Hills offer 8/15, Laddies are evens, whilst those nice people at Betfair Sportsbook are prepared to pay a whopping 2/1. Don't hang about as this price isn't going to last long.
DYOR (if you really must!)
I noted the source of the tip and bet accordingly both on FGS and anytime scorer
Harry Kane 7.69 1,434.07 Lay
Harry Kane 3.02 976.63 Lay
1,111 minutes
A whopping £1.25 max stake on Blue 2-1.
What Labour, UKIP, Green and SNP supporters don't like is the Lib Dems supporting the Conservatives. Even the Lib Dems and some Conservatives don't like the Lib Dems supporting the Conservatives.
Such people may change their minds when they see the chaos created with a minority government and no party prepared to vote to cut government spending.
Contemptible comment by Murphy.
Conservative 33.52%
UKIP 14.86%
Lib Dems 8.08%
SNP 4.76%
Greens 4.52%
Others 0.32%
PC 0.24%
BNP 0.24%
Which means that "Others" as you've defined it is 5.5% exactly.
Just the endorsement Ed was looking for...
I'm on the Betfair naughty list
People are not going to be so sure about an idea that they won't be swayed if they find out it is proposed by someone they don't trust.
I actually think that is a reasonably rational way to react, given that you are asking people to make judgements in the absence of perfect information. It has its problems, of course, not the least of which is that people seem to be awful judges of who deserves their trust, as the success of various confidence tricksters, and the failures of many relationships, serves to demonstrate.
Taking it back to Ed M and Labour ratings, that's where it gets silly for me, because people are saying they trust Labour and like Labour a lot, but they don't like Ed M, so what they think is that Ed M will have no or negligible impact on what Labour is or does, which seems unlikely even if he were as weak as people think.
Southam and Henry Mason were right about Ed from the off.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
In fact my crystal ball - I actually have a genuine one at home - shows much clearer mud, than all the pollsters do.
#Expectationsmanagement
Among telephone polling companies, it's 8 Conservative leads to 5 Labour, since the start of the year.
Bst let Clegg take the tar and feathers.
Grant Schapps needs to resign quickly if he is not to damage his party, how could he have carried on sustaining his lie for so long.It appears very dishonourable indeed.
But weighting UKIP and the Lib Dems to their 2010 result is nonsense in my opinion
;-)
The SNP are at their absolute max in the polls whereas even with the LibDems at 8% the yellow peril will outpoll the SNP almost 2:1
But you have a meme to push, for your own sanity no doubt, press on
Still huge volatility - UKIP at 15% with Populus and just 9% with ICM. The duopoly has 71% which is notably higher than with other pollsters.
It's a fair poll for the Conservatives (their highest score with any pollster) and a decent poll for Labour but where can either side go from here if the LDs, UKIP and the rest are down to near core numbers ?
I think this is as high as either Conservative or Labour can go - the question then becomes whether both can hold this high share over the next few weeks.
It is a poor poll for the LDs - no question. Whether it's an outlier for them and UKIP given the high numbers for the duopoly remains to be seen.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already.
Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
It suggests that the Conservatives could have a bad night in England, but its all too close to call and all to play for.