The full Ashcroft article is well worth a read. The focus group accounts are particularly good, both funny and perceptive:
Some were also doubtful about the idea of re-electing the Conservatives to “finish the job”: “How can you finish the job of running the country? Are they suddenly going to say ‘there, we’ve finished’ and disappear down the pub?”
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.
What on earth is the SNP score with Lord A? Must be over 5%?
"Another Party" are on 3%, along with Plaid on 1%, SNP on 5% and BNP on <1%.
That leaves: Respect, assorted other socialists, English Democrats and the odds and sods, gaining the support of 3% between them, which seems a bit optimistic.</p>
The remaining rump of the LibDems are putting in a concerted effort though.. Here in Sutton where they have Brake and Burstow as MPs they have through the LD phonebank machine rung the whole constituency twice already. Sutton and Cheam which is a target 40/40 seat is getting visits from cabinet ministers galore by the Tories and there is a real Stalingrad feel to the fight on the street. In C&W its much more low key with most pundits expecting a comfortable win for Brake.
Sutton and Cheam and Carshalton and Wellington will be held even if the Lib Dems go sub 15 seats or so. Probably sub 10
The really interesting one is Bermondsey. My instinct is that a continued strong personal vote will see Hughes over the line, but it's touch and go - Labour seem to be doing really well in the inner-London suburbs.
Sutton, Carshalton, Twickenham, and Bermondsey will all be Lib Dem holds in London, IMHO.
The only one that seems like a certain loss is Brent Central. I think Hornsey is a probable loss, Kingston a probable hold.
I think Kingston will be a LibDem HOLD. The most fascinating seat is Hornsey that should be a comfortable Lab GAIN but from what I'm hearing is going to be a dog fight to the finish - TCTC.
The key in Hornsey will be the Tory vote. Given on-going uber-gentrification in those parts of the constituency with £ million plus houses (Highgate, Muswell Hill, Crouch End), it would not be a huge surprise to see that rise. If it does, Ms Featherstone may be in trouble as you'd expect the Labour vote to go up too.
I doubt if gentrification would make any difference to the Tory vote here. They're trendy upper middle class rather than Tory upper middle class in this seat.
There is some serious money moving in now. Muswell Hill was always affluent, but there are parts that have gone way upmarket. Just look at the house prices.
This election is going to come down to whether Labour can GOTV in the marginals.
@politicshome: Ed Miliband on Tories vs Labour ground war: "They’re a virtual party – they exist as a Lynton Crosby hologram...but they don’t have people."
@faisalislam: Conservatives arguing that issue by issue support of SNP for a Miliband Govt could be "utter chaos"... Upgraded from coalition "chaos"...
Lord A comments: "The proportion of voters saying they most trusted Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to manage the economy was unchanged at 26% since I last asked the question in October. This put them 17 points behind David Cameron and George Osborne, down two points at 43%. Just over one fifth (21%) of Labour voters said they trusted Cameron and Osborne more than Miliband and Balls, and swing voters most trusted the Tory team by 49% to 20%."
2010 : Lab + Con = 65.1 % 2015 (Mar) ICM : Lab + Con = 71% (+6%) 2015 (Mar) Ash : Lab + Con = 60% (-5%)
Rise or fall of the small parties ?
Ashcroft (4pm) 60%
Something definitely out of kilter between the pollsters.
Assuming that the Conservatives and Labour are both polling in a range of 29-35%, then you'll sometimes get them (sometimes both parties at once) at extreme ends of those ranges. Ashcroft and ICM have produced two such polls today.
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.
What on earth is the SNP score with Lord A? Must be over 5%?
"Another Party" are on 3%, along with Plaid on 1%, SNP on 5% and BNP on <1%.
That leaves: Respect, assorted other socialists, English Democrats and the odds and sods, gaining the support of 3% between them, which seems a bit optimistic.</p>
Clearly the Pirate vote is stronger than expected... ;-)
In seriousness - I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see historic highs at this election for 'Another Party' - purely on the basis of increased candidates standing all over the place for minor parties.
Very little betting reaction thus far to today's polls, although Spreadex had previously trimmed their generous looking mid-spread Tory seats price from 288 to 285 seats.
Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious guddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.
The Lib dems look to me like they will lose over 30 seats now, at least 8 to the SNP, putting them down in the mid 20s. The idea that they are a good bet to gain Watford or anywhere else seems frankly absurd to me.
The reason why the LibDems are competitive in Watford is because not every seat will perform under UNS.
Oh I am convinced that with a well known and liked local candidate they will significantly out perform the UNS. But win?? It's preposterous.
If the Lib Dems were back up to 13% and climbing she would be well in the game. But they're not.
But, look how Dorothy Thornhill did in the Mayoral election, along with Lib Dem candidates, notwithstanding the overall result for the Lib Dems.
We shall see. This is not a local election, it is a national one and I think she has no chance in what the Americans call a wave election.
I wish it wasn't so. I think the Lib Dems have contributed very positively to the governance of this country over the last 5 years providing stability, consistency and some sensible moderation. But I seem to be in a very, very small minority in believing that.
re the Lib Dems I agree with that, well up to a point.
There are somethings they have not acted either well or honorably over though.
Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.... Mike will put you in the "sin bin"! We don't mention the Lib-Dems impending meltdown on here.
No, sireeeeeeeeeeee....
@iainmartin1: "None of our participants was seriously considering the Liberal Democrats." Latest Lord Ashcroft poll + focus groups http://t.co/UOIh8B9Dzs
Very mixed ICM for the Tories. On the one hand to hold 36% is very impressive suggesting that their share of the vote might even go up in May. On the other Labour are right on their tails and going to gain a shedload of seats to offset the disaster in Scotland.
This is heading for a serious muddle, probably with Labour as the largest party but it is going to be too close to form a credible government with.
It looks like a big switch from Green to Labour. Although I think that 4% and 9% are the irreducible minimum for the Greens and UKIP respectively, and the two big parties will have to take votes off each other to achieve a decisive lead with ICM.
The Green threat hasn't really crystallised in marginals, so far as I can tell and the other candidates that I've talked to. Lots of people (not all left-wingers) quite like them, but see them more in the "snog" than "marry" category, as the sainted BBC3 might put it, and in marginal seats anti-Tory voters are looking for actual change.
All these polls are converging on a near-tie. Whenever any poll shows a party with a significant lead, the next one from the same institute reverses it, suggesting just normal sampling variation.
Surely the main takeaway from the polls today and over the weekend is the convergence. As the GE approaches almost all the pollsters are showing that it is too close to call, and that a hung parliament is a near certainty.
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.
What on earth is the SNP score with Lord A? Must be over 5%?
"Another Party" are on 3%, along with Plaid on 1%, SNP on 5% and BNP on <1%.
That leaves: Respect, assorted other socialists, English Democrats and the odds and sods, gaining the support of 3% between them, which seems a bit optimistic.</p>
They'll stay at home.
I don't doubt that, but I would have thought that UKIP and the Greens would have swept up most of those sorts of respondents to the polls, even if they still didn't bother to turn out to vote.
@PaulBrandITV: All kicking off in Halifax, where it looks as though Unite's Karie Murphy has been kept off longlist of candidates to replace @Linda_Riordan
Despite this, if each of the leaders found themselves with the unexpected luxury of a free Friday night they would not necessarily all spend it in the same way, according to our groups. Mr Farage would inevitably go to the pub, possibly after a spot of fishing, or, for the cynics, “to a French restaurant with his German wife to complain about immigration”.
Mr Clegg, a likeable “family man”, would take his wife and children ten-pin bowling, or stay in with them to watch Bake Off.
Mr Miliband, if he did not have a “posh dinner party” planned, would be playing with the train set some suspect he has in his loft, or spend the time “reading the opinion polls for something to grab onto” (though the disparagers didn’t have much conviction here: of course he would make the most of extra time with his family).
Mr Cameron, meanwhile, would “get a helicopter to Cornwall” with Sam and the kids, where he would take the country air to help him focus on the job. Should the family be away, however, he would go “to his club” to engage in “mildly inappropriate banter with Conservative MPs and eight bottles of Cabernet Sauvignon.”
Just the tiniest bit laboured, possibly?
Plus I don't understand - are these things people spontaneously said, or multiple choice selections they have made? and are the people the same people who got asked VI, and if so, before or after? and what is the point, actually, of all this? It doesn't look, from the threader, like there is a complete famine of polls done by and expressly attributed to, in accordance with the universal convention, named BPC pollsters? It may not be a bouncy castle any more, but it's still a white elephant.
That's the third poll today so far without a Labour lead.
What on earth is the SNP score with Lord A? Must be over 5%?
"Another Party" are on 3%, along with Plaid on 1%, SNP on 5% and BNP on <1%.
That leaves: Respect, assorted other socialists, English Democrats and the odds and sods, gaining the support of 3% between them, which seems a bit optimistic.</p>
Clearly the Pirate vote is stronger than expected... ;-)
In seriousness - I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see historic highs at this election for 'Another Party' - purely on the basis of increased candidates standing all over the place for minor parties.
I agree with that too, but in 2010 the English Democrats and Respect combined polled just under 100,000 votes, and the largest other socialist slate picked up fewer votes across 37 seats than Health Concern in Wyre Forest.
A national 3% would be closing in on 1 million votes. There's a huge gulf in between where the odds and sods parties will poll more votes but still fall well short of a national 3%.
@PaulBrandITV: All kicking off in Halifax, where it looks as though Unite's Karie Murphy has been kept off longlist of candidates to replace @Linda_Riordan
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1h1 hour ago Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection
Afternoon all and Lord Ashcroft's 2% Tory lead this afternoon is the first time he has recorded 3 consecutive Tory leads.
It is starting to feel that the Tories really do have their nose in front, going into the final furlong... Could still be a photo finish, but more likely for Ed to fall off... I'm imagining him stood in the middle of the course as the Tories canter past the winning post, Labour's loose horse galloping off to do another circuit.
Big variation in polling at moment seems to be ukip share & that gives me jitters for betting.
Tories'll be pleased today. 2 leads n' a tie before the budget isnt bad.
One pollster (ICM whose methodology penalises new kids on the block more than any other) has them at 9. Every other pollster has them in the range 13-18. Meanwhile Labour are in the range 29-35 and the Tories in the range 29-36. UKIPs variation is no different to the other parties.
Ashcroft may not have thrown a grenade among the pigeons given his long-established volatility but to say 60% for CON-LAB poll versus 71% with ICM suggests it's taken Margin for Error out of a curry and twenty pints, got an obscene tattoo and left it half-naked on the last coach to Inverness.
How anyone can have "faith" in such divergent numbers is a total mystery. UKIP vary from 9% to 15%., Labour from 29 to 35 and the Conservatives from 31 to 36. One poll suggests the duopoly strengthening, the other shows it weakening.
For all the positive spin from the Tory-inclined, "surprisingly solid" isn't a term I'd use to describe the numbers today. Yes, they show a tiny Conservative lead but well within Margin of Error.
Wow, Ashcroft headline must surely be how soft the LD and UKIP vote is. For the former, 8% could be 3.5% - that would surely translate to 0 seats?
How do you make the jump from 8% to 3.5%?
Lazy maths, could in fact be 2.975% (8% * 35% of that subset certain to vote that way).
On the same measurement, the Conservatives would be just over 20% and Labour just under 20% so a huge amount for all sides to play for with seemingly a lot of people still to decide as was alluded to at the weekend.
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
Afternoon all and Lord Ashcroft's 2% Tory lead this afternoon is the first time he has recorded 3 consecutive Tory leads.
It is starting to feel that the Tories really do have their nose in front, going into the final furlong... Could still be a photo finish, but more likely for Ed to fall off... I'm imagining him stood in the middle of the course as the Tories canter past the winning post, Labour's loose horse galloping off to do another circuit.
The rule of thumb is that Tory governments gain (and Lab opposition lose) a handful of percentage points in the final part of campaign (according to Peter Kelner). So neck-and-neck would seem a fairly good place for Tories to be in during March.
Of course as this is the weirdest election since at least 1974, who knows?
@MichaelLCrick: Steph Booth - Cherie's sister, says Labour sent her an email 10pm Friday night asking her to apply for Halifax. "It smacks of desperation."
@MichaelLCrick: Snr Unite source on Harman's role in blocking Karie Murphy: "She'll have to answer for her actions in due course. It's deeply regrettable."
The rule of thumb is that Tory governments gain (and Lab opposition lose) a handful of percentage points in the final part of campaign (according to Peter Kelner). So neck-and-neck would seem a fairly good place for Tories to be in during March.
Of course as this is the weirdest election since at least 1974, who knows?
Another piece of wishful thinking from an arch-Blairite joke based on data points nearly twenty years old at the youngest?
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
Blame Paul Staines who runs Messagespace
Bugger.. I'll try to put up with it until it no longer appears (usually don't see the same ad for that long)
So effectively a tie. How the Tories got into this position with the most favourable economy in decades just shows the real cost of Thatcher's legacy. It'll obviously take more than two generations to remove the whiff from that particular stable.
Anyway lets see if Osborne can bribe us to give them another go. You better be generous George!
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 28s28 seconds ago Story alert. RT @AlanJonesPA: Karie Murphy says she is not on a shortlist to be Labour candidate in Halifax.
Must be a safe seat out there for her to parachute into ?
Must be one in Scotland....
Interesting to see in IPSOS MORI that the LDs are more popular than the Tories on the likeability index. Maybe it really is defeatism rather than toxicity that is the problem.
The rule of thumb is that Tory governments gain (and Lab opposition lose) a handful of percentage points in the final part of campaign (according to Peter Kelner). So neck-and-neck would seem a fairly good place for Tories to be in during March.
Of course as this is the weirdest election since at least 1974, who knows?
Another piece of wishful thinking from an arch-Blairite joke based on data points nearly twenty years old at the youngest?
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
You could turn your speakers of?
I'm often listening to music on my headphones, or watching a YouTube video, while browsing PB. Annoying to have to halt everything for an ad, and I don't want to use a ad blocker because I spam the site with refreshes
Comments
Some were also doubtful about the idea of re-electing the Conservatives to “finish the job”: “How can you finish the job of running the country? Are they suddenly going to say ‘there, we’ve finished’ and disappear down the pub?”
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-31-lab-29-lib-dem-8-ukip-15-green-8/#more-11056
That's only 3% lower than last time.
What you have to ask yourself is, are these people going to actually VOTE labour?
Yes they are labour supporters, just as we all like fluffy Kittens, rainbows and World Peace.
@CCHQPress: .@politicshome sure http://t.co/pLIZPQfaNa
In seriousness - I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see historic highs at this election for 'Another Party' - purely on the basis of increased candidates standing all over the place for minor parties.
Con 34
Lab 29
UKIP 18
Grn 9
LD 8
No, sireeeeeeeeeeee....
There are somethings they have not acted either well or honorably over though.
Still my mantra remains constant "anyone but Ed"
All these polls are converging on a near-tie. Whenever any poll shows a party with a significant lead, the next one from the same institute reverses it, suggesting just normal sampling variation.
SLAB/CON/LD supporters also know they are facing an extinction level event, which also should theoretically drive up turnout NOTB.
The next Survation Scotland poll should give us a better idea on that front.
SNP 2010 : 491,386
Yes 2014 : 1,617,989
@PaulBrandITV: All kicking off in Halifax, where it looks as though Unite's Karie Murphy has been kept off longlist of candidates to replace @Linda_Riordan
* In fairness a once in a generation opportunity.
Plus I don't understand - are these things people spontaneously said, or multiple choice selections they have made? and are the people the same people who got asked VI, and if so, before or after? and what is the point, actually, of all this? It doesn't look, from the threader, like there is a complete famine of polls done by and expressly attributed to, in accordance with the universal convention, named BPC pollsters? It may not be a bouncy castle any more, but it's still a white elephant.
A national 3% would be closing in on 1 million votes. There's a huge gulf in between where the odds and sods parties will poll more votes but still fall well short of a national 3%.
Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection
Tories'll be pleased today. 2 leads n' a tie before the budget isnt bad.
Ashcroft may not have thrown a grenade among the pigeons given his long-established volatility but to say 60% for CON-LAB poll versus 71% with ICM suggests it's taken Margin for Error out of a curry and twenty pints, got an obscene tattoo and left it half-naked on the last coach to Inverness.
How anyone can have "faith" in such divergent numbers is a total mystery. UKIP vary from 9% to 15%., Labour from 29 to 35 and the Conservatives from 31 to 36. One poll suggests the duopoly strengthening, the other shows it weakening.
For all the positive spin from the Tory-inclined, "surprisingly solid" isn't a term I'd use to describe the numbers today. Yes, they show a tiny Conservative lead but well within Margin of Error.
Story alert. RT @AlanJonesPA: Karie Murphy says she is not on a shortlist to be Labour candidate in Halifax.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
Don't mention the Tories!
I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it.
...and is it a 6pm start with everyone having left by 9pm?
Of course as this is the weirdest election since at least 1974, who knows?
Anyway lets see if Osborne can bribe us to give them another go. You better be generous George!
Interesting to see in IPSOS MORI that the LDs are more popular than the Tories on the likeability index. Maybe it really is defeatism rather than toxicity that is the problem.
When are we going to hear from RNB India again, the true Gold Standard.