So effectively a tie. How the Tories got into this position with the most favourable economy in decades just shows the real cost of Thatcher's legacy. It'll obviously take more than two generations to remove the whiff from that particular stable.
Anyway lets see if Osborne can bribe us to give them another go. You better be generous George!
I realise you were deeply traumatised by the years of Gordon Brown's premiership but did you completely lose your memory of the worst financial crisis in 80 years which the Tories inherited?
This country has never been more indebted for one thing so the economic conditions in 1997, 2001 and 2005 were far better. We are suffering from Brown's disastrous legacy now.
Out of date dinosaurs who rant on about Thatcher are just so 20th Century dontcha know?
Afternoon all and Lord Ashcroft's 2% Tory lead this afternoon is the first time he has recorded 3 consecutive Tory leads.
It is starting to feel that the Tories really do have their nose in front, going into the final furlong... Could still be a photo finish, but more likely for Ed to fall off... I'm imagining him stood in the middle of the course as the Tories canter past the winning post, Labour's loose horse galloping off to do another circuit.
ed = Devon Loch, if he ever gets that far in front in the first place.
The rule of thumb is that Tory governments gain (and Lab opposition lose) a handful of percentage points in the final part of campaign (according to Peter Kelner). So neck-and-neck would seem a fairly good place for Tories to be in during March.
Of course as this is the weirdest election since at least 1974, who knows?
Another piece of wishful thinking from an arch-Blairite joke based on data points nearly twenty years old at the youngest?
Don't take this personally, but I'd trust Kellner's judgement on these things more than I would yours.
Well what a pity the country haven't picked up on it and it looks like you have actually managed to lose about 10% in the last five years. Quite an achievement. I was going to give you some pro bono advice and suggest you public ally horse whip IDS but it's too late. Even George's hands are tied. Any largesse at this budget and the Labour soup kitchen posters will come out with a vengeance
I have now analysed the switching data from the latest Ashcroft polls (table 4).
It shows that 20% of 2010 Tory voters are switching to UKIP and 3% to Green 5% of 2010 Lab voters are switching to UKIP and 5% to Green. 25% of 2010 LD voters are switching to Lab, 17% to Green!, 13% to Con and 9% to UKIP.
It is only a small sample (500 excluding DK/WS etc) so I'm not taking it as gospel. However I have tweaked my matrix switching model a bit in that direction.
The results are: Con 263 seats Lab 283 seats LD 29 seats UKIP 2 seats Green 1 seat SNP 51 seats
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
Well what a pity the country haven't picked up on it and it looks like you have actually managed to lose about 10% in the last five years. Quite an achievement. I was going to give you some pro bono advice and suggest you public ally horse whip IDS but it's too late. Even George's hands are tied. Any largesse at this budget and the Labour soup kitchen posters will come out with a vengeance
What are a babbling about you you demented old fool......
@PaulBrandITV: All kicking off in Halifax, where it looks as though Unite's Karie Murphy has been kept off longlist of candidates to replace @Linda_Riordan
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1h1 hour ago Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
Well the 3-4 UKIP seat bet was a very good price at 7-1 I reckon.
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
On the face of it they've done the sort of analysis that should identify local areas of UKIP strength:
To calculate the distribution for the deviations from uniform swing for Ukip, we used the distribution of swings to Ukip in the 2014 European Parliament election.
This is not a perfect proxy for the general election, but it gives us a better idea as to the distribution of Ukip swings than the last general election – the overall rise in UKIP support between 2009 and 2014 in European elections (10.6 percentage points) is fairly similar to the rise in Ukip support we are currently seeing in election polls.
It would be interesting to know how many close second places their model predicts for UKIP, though.
Con still on 36 with ICM which shows the last poll probably wasn't an outlier.
I think Con holding at 36% and keeping a lead with ICM is probably the big news of the day...
IF this poll is accurate then the Conservatives have basically maintained their share of the vote since 2010. Given that they have certainly lost some voters to UKIP that would be a remarkable achievement (didn't I read on here that no governing party has increased its vote share at the subsequent election since 1386 or some such).
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1h1 hour ago Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection
9/2 available on the Tories at Hill's, or 4/1 chez Fred. Given what seems to be a Labour shambles just a few weeks before the big day, those have got to be value - Shadsy has already cut his odds sharply.
I have now analysed the switching data from the latest Ashcroft polls (table 4).
It shows that 20% of 2010 Tory voters are switching to UKIP and 3% to Green 5% of 2010 Lab voters are switching to UKIP and 5% to Green. 25% of 2010 LD voters are switching to Lab, 17% to Green!, 13% to Con and 9% to UKIP.
It is only a small sample (500 excluding DK/WS etc) so I'm not taking it as gospel. However I have tweaked my matrix switching model a bit in that direction.
The results are: Con 263 seats Lab 283 seats LD 29 seats UKIP 2 seats Green 1 seat SNP 51 seats
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1h1 hour ago Halifax MP Linda Riordan has written to Lab general secretary alleging "underhand and anti-democratic manipulation" in Halifax selection
9/2 available on the Tories at Hill's, or 4/1 chez Fred. Given what seems to a Labour shambles just a few weeks before the big day, those have got to be value - Shadsy has already cut his odds sharply.
Shadsy is 3-10, that's arbable and generally he is on the right side of arbs. So yes definitely value @ 9-2.
"Win" is being able to form the next Gov't, so it doesn't even need to be a win on seats for Labour. But perhaps it does for Ed...
All 3 leaders out at 10-1 with Shadsy before year end is a must addition to anyone's portfolio imo.
I was thinking about recently. I'm not sure it's necessarily right that a messy result means the leaders are out on their ear. If we end up with an unstable result, with no viable government being possible, then it would be quite dangerous for either of the big parties to start trying to switch leader - they might get caught with their pants down by a sudden GE. To a lesser extent, the same applies to the LibDems.
So effectively a tie. How the Tories got into this position with the most favourable economy in decades just shows the real cost of Thatcher's legacy. It'll obviously take more than two generations to remove the whiff from that particular stable.
Anyway lets see if Osborne can bribe us to give them another go. You better be generous George!
Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things...
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
I have now analysed the switching data from the latest Ashcroft polls (table 4).
It shows that 20% of 2010 Tory voters are switching to UKIP and 3% to Green 5% of 2010 Lab voters are switching to UKIP and 5% to Green. 25% of 2010 LD voters are switching to Lab, 17% to Green!, 13% to Con and 9% to UKIP.
It is only a small sample (500 excluding DK/WS etc) so I'm not taking it as gospel. However I have tweaked my matrix switching model a bit in that direction.
The results are: Con 263 seats Lab 283 seats LD 29 seats UKIP 2 seats Green 1 seat SNP 51 seats
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
What bet do you suggest?
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.
Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
What bet do you suggest?
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.
Too late for that!!
11/4 is probably still a good price for 3-4 seats if you think they'll only get 3
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
What bet do you suggest?
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.
Too late for that!!
11/4 is probably still a good price for 3-4 seats if you think they'll only get 3
I will top up my 3-4 seat bet as it is good value in my opinion. I was fortunate enough to get on at 9/1.
Mike - while you are on. I'm starting to get adverts with audio which you can't stop without muting the entire computer. Anything you can do about this - are you able to chose less obtrusive ads?
Blame Paul Staines who runs Messagespace
Yes, I think there's a market for a tool to silence adverts only. (Working title: STFU )
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......
Write a cheque to the tax man if it pains you so much. They will quite happily accept it.
Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.
She's a good example of someone who the worse you treat them, the more they like you.
Roger.. the great PB socialist is quite happy to be better off from taking money away from some disabled pleb on benefits... and blames the Tories...WHAAAATT..
Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.
She's a good example of someone who the worse you treat them, the more they like you.
Lol.
When Mrs D stops voting Labour you know they are in trouble. Looks like she is tempted by UKIP. That will be Labour's downfall, the exodus of the WWC to UKIP.
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......
I'd imagine that's from asset price inflation, more than income. That results from QE and low interest rates, on which Labour policy differs not at all from Con.
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
What bet do you suggest?
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he's a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland
All he has ruled out is a coalition. He has not ruled out supply and confidence, which most English voters would see as cash for "ayes", unless he does rule this out too, as Cameron has, it will poison Labours relationship with English voters.
(the cash being English taxpayers cash disappearing into Scotland in return for supporting Labour motions in Parliament that won't be applied to Scotland as they have devolved powers on most of the matters).
We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
I'll eat my hat if Labour poll 35% on the day. With almost half of all Labour voters not rating him they're at risk, even more than usual, of their vote not turning out where it matters.
However, and on the credit side for Labour, the Tories have lost an awful lot of ground activists over the last 5 years.
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
What bet do you suggest?
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
I'll eat my hat if Labour poll 35% on the day. With almost half of all Labour voters not rating him they're at risk, even more than usual, of their vote not turning out where it matters.
However, and on the credit side for Labour, the Tories have lost an awful lot of ground activists over the last 5 years.
Polling Observatory predict 33.7% apiece, on the day.
Another poll showing a virtual tie - we can probably agree that both the previous ICM and the previous Populus were probably outliers.
I do think it's striking that 52% say they "like the Labour Party". I wouldn't have expected that most people these days would feel emotionally attached to any party.
It is really not that suprising. Take Gillian Duffy for example, repeatedly branded a bigot by Labour MPs over the years yet still votes for them.
She's a good example of someone who the worse you treat them, the more they like you.
One does wonder what Labour would have to do to put that half of the population off them. I find it simply astonishing.
We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
Roughly speaking the tories are back where they were in 2010 by replacing UKIP losses with blue Liberals and labour have gained some Red Liberals.
However thats UNS. I think, crucially Tories have lost shedloads of UKIP voters in safe seats where they can afford to lose them and gained Blue Liberals in Libdem-Tory marginals like Sutton and Cheam and Somerton and Frome.
Labour have gained lots of red Liberals in safe Labour seats and Lib/Lab Marginals and lost UKIP votes in Tory/ Labour Marginals like Croydon Central
Basically the unwinding of the "Labour Bias" in the electoral system.
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
What bet do you suggest?
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
Southend Railway?
The Fenchurch St & Liverpool St lines...I have a half baked theory that people that commute to the City using these lines are the type to vote UKIP and the stations in Essex that they stop at are indicators of where UKIP will do well
Could say the same for Kent too
These people see the effects of mass immigration everyday without living in the areas affected.. we have seen plenty of poling that suggests opponents of immigration live in areas not affected by it, and I reckon this is a reason why
Polling observatory is forecasting 60 LAB gains from CON then looks to me or so.
Punters should take note that they are forecasting only 3 UKIP seats. This is very significant because Rob Ford is one of the four academics behind the forecast.
What bet do you suggest?
I suggest being cautious on UKIP wins and not getting over-exposed.
I think that UKIP dont know their best prospects yet themselves (the Southend Railway constituencies excepted), but neither do their opponents.
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
Southend Railway?
The Fenchurch St & Liverpool St lines...I have a half baked theory that people that commute to the City using these lines are the type to vote UKIP and the stations in Essex that they stop at are indicators of where UKIP will do well
Could say the same for Kent too
These people see the effects of mass immigration everyday without living in the areas affected.. we have seen plenty of poling that suggests opponents of immigration live in areas not affected by it, and I reckon this is a reason why
Oh yes of course - for some reason had the Pier Railway in mind
We've pretty much now reached the vote shares (for Conservative and Labour) that Polling Observatory is predicting on the day.
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
I'll eat my hat if Labour poll 35% on the day. With almost half of all Labour voters not rating him they're at risk, even more than usual, of their vote not turning out where it matters.
However, and on the credit side for Labour, the Tories have lost an awful lot of ground activists over the last 5 years.
Polling Observatory predict 33.7% apiece, on the day.
If the polls are still showing a tie by polling day, I might expect a 1.5-2% lead in actual votes cast for the Tories.
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too
Sky saying budget will predict growth of 3% this year and borrowing 6Bn down on forecast.
If that is true, Osborne will be literally dancing around Despatch box when he announces that. I await to see what if any magical accounting has been undertaken.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
I'm starting to think that Ed is nothing like the buffoon many think he is. He's ruled out all possibility of letting the SNP into government.
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too
No hasn't.
You have polling as up to date as post announcement
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......
Ah. Welcome to the Lump of Wealth Fallacy. We've been expecting you.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
Good evening all. Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
@faisalislam: Nov 1976, Hamish Watt, SNP MP, offers a secret deal to the Conservatives/ Thatcher... Gold from Thatcher archives: http://t.co/0kgS0jqWUm
Comments
This country has never been more indebted for one thing so the economic conditions in 1997, 2001 and 2005 were far better. We are suffering from Brown's disastrous legacy now.
Out of date dinosaurs who rant on about Thatcher are just so 20th Century dontcha know?
Well what a pity the country haven't picked up on it and it looks like you have actually managed to lose about 10% in the last five years. Quite an achievement. I was going to give you some pro bono advice and suggest you public ally horse whip IDS but it's too late. Even George's hands are tied. Any largesse at this budget and the Labour soup kitchen posters will come out with a vengeance
It shows that 20% of 2010 Tory voters are switching to UKIP and 3% to Green
5% of 2010 Lab voters are switching to UKIP and 5% to Green.
25% of 2010 LD voters are switching to Lab, 17% to Green!, 13% to Con and 9% to UKIP.
It is only a small sample (500 excluding DK/WS etc) so I'm not taking it as gospel. However I have tweaked my matrix switching model a bit in that direction.
The results are:
Con 263 seats
Lab 283 seats
LD 29 seats
UKIP 2 seats
Green 1 seat
SNP 51 seats
Not much change.
Broxtowe 8% Lab majority (4,000)
Bermondsey 8% LD majority (3,500)
Sutton & Cheam 3% Con majority (1,500)
"Con still on 36 with ICM which shows the last poll probably wasn't an outlier.
I think Con holding at 36% and keeping a lead with ICM is probably the big news of the day..."
Gin
if your idea of progress is to go from 31-36 to 35-36 in a month then you have plenty to look forward to in the next three months!
All 3 leaders out at 10-1 with Shadsy before year end is a must addition to anyone's portfolio imo.
Labour lead with the rest.
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things...
I think Ed will just be content to take a drive down the Mall in a Jag and to meet herMaj
11/4 is probably still a good price for 3-4 seats if you think they'll only get 3
Back in the real world, a win is getting your policies implemented. A minority government will find it hard to do so.
"Interesting that you describe "the most favourable economy in decades"
Quite a turnaround from the 2009 biggest slump in decades.
If even you are agreeing that Osborne and Alexander have fixed things..."
I've no idea. All I know is that from unearned income I'm much wealthier than I was in 2010 which I imagine some disabled pleb on benefits is paying for. It's the Tory way......
All seem to have a similar methodology so why is Polling Observatory producing such a different result?
When Mrs D stops voting Labour you know they are in trouble. Looks like she is tempted by UKIP. That will be Labour's downfall, the exodus of the WWC to UKIP.
Our secret Mr Dancer
The difference with other forecasters is that the latter expect continued slow movement towards the Conservatives
What does it tell us? Absolutely nothing except that he looks like a major player. He's moving from a rather absurd no hoper into a PM in waiting. In one swipe he diminishes Nicola to a petty provincial council leader. I'd be surprised if it doesn't do Labour some good in Scotland too
I think there will be surprises. Possibly in Anglophone Wales. But who knows where? If there is a second election soon then I expect better targeting by both kippers and their opponents.
(the cash being English taxpayers cash disappearing into Scotland in return for supporting Labour motions in Parliament that won't be applied to Scotland as they have devolved powers on most of the matters).
However, and on the credit side for Labour, the Tories have lost an awful lot of ground activists over the last 5 years.
However thats UNS. I think, crucially Tories have lost shedloads of UKIP voters in safe seats where they can afford to lose them and gained Blue Liberals in Libdem-Tory marginals like Sutton and Cheam and Somerton and Frome.
Labour have gained lots of red Liberals in safe Labour seats and Lib/Lab Marginals and lost UKIP votes in Tory/ Labour Marginals like Croydon Central
Basically the unwinding of the "Labour Bias" in the electoral system.
@DPJHodges
Don't agree much with @MSmithsonPB. But you have to admire his single-handed attempts to turn the UK betting markets in Labour's favour.
Could say the same for Kent too
These people see the effects of mass immigration everyday without living in the areas affected.. we have seen plenty of poling that suggests opponents of immigration live in areas not affected by it, and I reckon this is a reason why
KD struggling as Tories vote for the chicken in droves
Below is a story that for all my cynicism I never expected to read: A man sent to prison for 4 months in Scotland for simply singing a song.
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/je-suis-billy-boy-free-speech-for-football-fans/16774#.VQcfSxCsV0Q
Please tell
May 2015 has vote shares of Con 33.2, Lab 33.1 converting to seats of Con 281, Lab 264.
Polling Observatory has vote shares of Con 33.7, Lab 33.7 converting to seats of Con 265, Lab 285
Difference in vote lead of 0.1 - but difference in seat lead of 37.
Dolt.
Room for some chunky giveaways?
Looks like there is suddenly some juice.