Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.
I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.
But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.
There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.
Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
I think you're wrong.
This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.
I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.
I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.
But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.
I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
Oh for goodness sake Casino not this again. Even if the Tories wanted to commit budgetary suicide, the Libdems are not going to sign up to IHT cuts when they have this on their website
The Conservatives can't be trusted to deliver fair taxes by themselves. We blocked their plans to give millionaires a £270,000 inheritance tax cut and they refuse to create a mansion tax because they are worried it would affect their big donors.
This is very much a longshot, and I have no inside knowledge (tm), but I feel that it's possible that the Conservatives may announce some hefty rail developments in the southwest.
This could either be: *) Funding (or funds for progressing) reopening Tavistock to Meldon as part of a local line, with the possibility of diversionary services from the Dawlish seawall at a cost of about £900 million; *) A new Dawlish avoiding tunnel (wahey!) under Haldon Hill at £1.5-2.5 billion. *) Other speed improvements on the South Devon banks.
My reasoning? 1) There are lots of seats up for grabs in the southwest; 2) It partially offsets one argument against HS2 ("See, other people are getting investment!", ignoring the massive amount of money being pumped into electrification) 3) Cameron has made several speeches about the need for improvements. 4) Network Rail is investigating alternatives, especially wrt the CBA /BCR of the alternatives (1).
Personally I favour a new tunnel, but it'd be an interesting development considering Labour's woeful history of rail investment.
Do you think it would be wise for Osborne to bore the electorate to death on his last budget?
Take it that you've not been to the SW lately. Can guarantee its the first thing any visiting politico will be asked about is the rail link. Even had the Transport Secretary going by train to Meldon near Okehampton last December to inspect the underside of the metal viaduct.
In political terms most Cons and Libdems favour reopening the LSW route via Okehampton (realistic cost £250-£500 million) as it gives all sorts of benefits throughout the area.
Labour, who only have representatiives in Exeter and Plymouth, want a Dawlish Diversion (about £2.5 billion and nimby outrage with no benefit to North / Mid/ West Devon and North Cornwall).
Seems like Millwall fans had their annual jolly up at Rotherham last Saturday, I work with someone who is a season ticket holder at Rotherham and he said it was mayhem with 1,300 Millwall turning up.
Apparently it got really nasty when the Millwall contingent kept singing 'You knew, and you did f*** all' at the South Yorkshire plod, who obviously don't like having the truth thrown at them.
Also they sang "You only sing when your grooming" apparently
The irony of this thread is it based on a tweet from an employee of the paper who has single handedly turned polling into a snore bore....
News international have ruined polling in this country. The problem is the more polls that are published the more rogues you get and because the rogues are the most exciting ones they are the ones that get publicised the most, despite there being literally dozens of surrounding polls which cast doubt on the rogues.
Add to that the proliferation of increasingly biased propagandist supplementary questions (e.g. the ITV's polling last week) and frankly the whole thing is becoming rather sordid
... Plus six of the twenty missing miles on the Dartmoor route (Bere Alston to Tavistock) are going to happen as a developer funded reopening anyway. With a Parkway Stn at the A30/A386 junction at Sourton and through Waterloo-Plymouth services it would be give swathes of North Devon and Cornwall a boost.
All a Dawlish diversion achieves is a few minutes off the existing journey, with buses still needed if there is a problem west of Newton Abbot and the probable closure of Teignmouth and Dawlish stations next the first time a major problem blocked the sea wall stretch of the line after the diversion opened.
With the Okehampton route all the weekend and overnight possessions to spend £300 making the south devon route resilient wont leave the south west isolated with buses to Plymouth. I would say the Dawlish wall is the least of their worries. The high sandy cliffs above several miles of the track and the curves round the sides of hills on the South Devon Banks west of Newton Abbot would be what kept me awake at night if I was the engineer responsible for that route.
Plus - Labour (as expressed by their two local MPs in Plymouth and Exeter) favour a Dawlish Diversion and are anti reopening the Okehampton Route, whereas the many many more Conservative & Libdem local MPs (other than certain MPs in South Devon) are in favour of reopening the Okehampton route not the unaffordable Dawlish Diversion.
This is probably too much information for others, but I'll continue. Note, IANAE, just an interested observer.
The Oakhampton option has the problem of being around a national park, parts have a cycleway on it, it does not serve the population centres of South Devon, and requires two reversals for trains going on to Penzance. Pathing might be a problem north of Exeter. There are also some buildings on the line (including, I think, council office in a piece of really well-thought-out local planning).
In addition, AIUI the soon-to-be-reopened Tavistock section is only being developed for local passenger services. That is easily rectifiable if they make the decision to reopen the whole thing soon.
On the other hand, it could form a genuine local service to both Plymouth and Exeter, and would be more useful as a non-diversionary service. It'll attract both local support and local opposition from nimbys.
The Dawlish diversion is simpler from a planning point of view (esp. with respect to the national park), will easily allow later electrification (which the Oakhampton line would not), is easier operationally, and will allow faster journey times. It will be more expensive, but also serves the major population centres of Torbay, which the Oakhampton alternative does not.
I'd love to know where you got the figures for the Oakhampton contingency from .
It's horses for courses. I'd be happy with either (or both!)
So is anyone surprised that neither Oxfordshire county council nor Thames Valley police have seen any need to take disciplinary action action employees who for years tolerated industrial scale child abuse ?
Just like Rotherham council and the South Yorkshire police.
Until we start putting plods and social workers in jail this level of abuse is going to continue.
And that includes council executives and chief plods as well as their minions.
Instead of letting them retire with payoffs and full pensions and then seeing them given other jobs by their mates.
Likewise the banks are not going to clear up their act (see the Barclays story today for yet more evidence of their misconduct) until people start going to jail.
Osborne for all his many failings does understand that a budget a month before a close election isn't a time to preach to the choir. If he wants to turn the East Midlands airport into an international hub-though boring-at least it might have a purpose
Likewise the banks are not going to clear up their act (see the Barclays story today for yet more evidence of their misconduct) until people start going to jail.
The same for the media. My replacement for the Leveson rubbish would be simple: if the media publishes a story as mendacious and evil as the Jeffries story (or the Mirror's fake photo) for reason only to increase circulation, then the editor should personally be prosecuted and face jail time.
... Plus six of the twenty missing miles on the Dartmoor route (Bere Alston to Tavistock) are going to happen as a developer funded reopening anyway. With a Parkway Stn at the A30/A386 junction at Sourton and through Waterloo-Plymouth services it would be give swathes of North Devon and Cornwall a boost.
All a Dawlish diversion achieves is a few minutes off the existing journey, with buses still needed if there is a problem west of Newton Abbot and the probable closure of Teignmouth and Dawlish stations next the first time a major problem blocked the sea wall stretch of the line after the diversion opened.
Plus - Labour (as expressed by their two local MPs in Plymouth and Exeter) favour a Dawlish Diversion and are anti reopening the Okehampton Route, whereas the many many more Conservative & Libdem local MPs (other than certain MPs in South Devon) are in favour of reopening the Okehampton route not the unaffordable Dawlish Diversion.
This is probably too much information for others, but I'll continue. Note, IANAE, just an interested observer.
The Oakhampton option has the problem of being around a national park, parts have a cycleway on it, it does not serve the population centres of South Devon, and requires two reversals for trains going on to Penzance. Pathing might be a problem north of Exeter. There are also some buildings on the line (including, I think, council office in a piece of really well-thought-out local planning).
In addition, AIUI the soon-to-be-reopened Tavistock section is only being developed for local passenger services. That is easily rectifiable if they make the decision to reopen the whole thing soon.
On the other hand, it could form a genuine local service to both Plymouth and Exeter, and would be more useful as a non-diversionary service. It'll attract both local support and local opposition from nimbys.
The Dawlish diversion is simpler from a planning point of view (esp. with respect to the national park), will easily allow later electrification (which the Oakhampton line would not), is easier operationally, and will allow faster journey times. It will be more expensive, but also serves the major population centres of Torbay, which the Oakhampton alternative does not.
I'd love to know where you got the figures for the Oakhampton contingency from .
It's horses for courses. I'd be happy with either (or both!)
Okehampton, and if you think someone trying to protect the national park is a nimby have another think about what "national" means.
"This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.".
Do Tories go on living at home with their parents till they're well into their 50's and 60's. If not why describe it as 'the family home'? It's just an asset like money or yachts or anything else. I can't for the life of me see why this should be protected from IHT anymore than any other possession
It's time for Tories to grow up and stop trying to perpetuate their privilege through the generations. If the Libs want to be part of it they'll be in worse trouble than they already are
I have friends right across the political spectrum; from Greens to Labour to Lib Dem to apathetic.
We disagree strongly about most things. But the unfairness of IHT is one thing that unites most of them. In several cases it will be the only hope they have of ever owning a home.
Trying to keep it a little short to avoid derailing the thread.
The cycleroute isn't a problem. The trackbed is double track and there is room for a single track railway and the cycle track (as is already the case for the last two open miles between Okehampton Stn and Meldon Viaduct, where the track and cycleway already run together on the trackbed. AIUI Devon CC own the 10 mile cycletrack on the closed trackbed not Sustrans, which means most of the route is owned by a single public body (so fewer landowner issues). Nat Park I think are not that bothered by it as it gets people into the park on public transport.
The reversing twice would be a problem if it became the main intercity line, but for a diversionary route that is fine. Even in pre nationalisation days the old Great Western and Southern railway drivers were trained on route knowledge of each others line because both used each others route for diversions so often.
AIUI The £900 million included about 40-60% contingency on top of the cost which was for a full blown double track intercity railway, not a secondary single track diversionary route. Apparently the contingency cost is buried in one of the NR reports. I got that from a members railway email group.
Aside from a handful of houses in parts of Tavistock (I believe the council offices are on the old station goods yard) a missing brodge over the A386 at Tavistock and minor missing bridges at Sourton & Brentor all the structures are intact and solid granite and the trackbed is basically unobstructed -except Meldon viaduct. The £900 million I gather assumed it would be rebuilt, but apparently the feasibility of refurbing/strengthening it is now to be looked at.
Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.
I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.
But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.
I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
Oh for goodness sake Casino not this again. Even if the Tories wanted to commit budgetary suicide, the Libdems are not going to sign up to IHT cuts when they have this on their website
The Conservatives can't be trusted to deliver fair taxes by themselves. We blocked their plans to give millionaires a £270,000 inheritance tax cut and they refuse to create a mansion tax because they are worried it would affect their big donors.
Easy. The threshold won't be raised to £1million. It'll be raised to £650k (the current married couples threshold) for each individual, so that it's equally fair to cohabiting siblings - who are growing. Or perhaps £740k, where it would be allowing for inflation. So no millionaires tax cut.
You forget politicians aren't like normal people: they almost always word things to give themselves wiggle room. But I don't think it'd be anything less than politically popular anyway.
Osborne for all his many failings does understand that a budget a month before a close election isn't a time to preach to the choir. If he wants to turn the East Midlands airport into an international hub-though boring-at least it might have a purpose
Announcing £300 million funding to reopen the Exeter-Okehampton-Tavistock-Plymouth railway is hardly choir preaching - its exactly the sort of feelgood but not expensive on a national scale announcement that chancellors like and benefits a swathe of both Tory and Libdem constituencies.
But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.
There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.
Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
I think you're wrong.
The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".
This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.
I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
Well we'll see.
There's a fundamental problem with your proposal that the LDs won't like:
IHT starts at £325k. If IHT is cut it benefits anyone just above the £325k figure.
In contrast any new council tax bands would only come in at £1m minimum.
So the overall effect is that anyone in the £325k to £1m range gets a major win.
They won't raise council tax as low as £325k - if they did it would be political suicide - an increased annual cost for modest homes - whereas most people aren't expecting to die soon - so benefit of IHT cut is a distant thing.
I'm sure Con will announce an IHT cut - but it will be Con manifesto, not Budget.
Yes but Council Tax is on 1980s (?) property values, and any new band would also be at values from the same time, so £325k = 1.5 million (? guess) today
Sure - I'm obviously talking about today's values.
My point is that the LDs are not going to agree to a large tax cut for people with homes with a value today in the range £325k to £1m.
Why? In Sutton & Cheam, Cheadle, Solihull, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton there are plenty of properties like that.
The Lib Dems won't be thanked for blocking it. And they need tactical votes from the Tories to survive.
Likewise the banks are not going to clear up their act (see the Barclays story today for yet more evidence of their misconduct) until people start going to jail.
The same for the media. My replacement for the Leveson rubbish would be simple: if the media publishes a story as mendacious and evil as the Jeffries story (or the Mirror's fake photo) for reason only to increase circulation, then the editor should personally be prosecuted and face jail time.
Simples.
Agreed.
That poor bloke got the treatment from the plods as well:
' Avon and Somerset Police admit “inadvertently” releasing Jefferies’ name. They deny leaking their belief in his guilt, but with plenty of wiggle room. Asked in her own statement to Leveson whether there had been any off-the-record contact between herself or her staff and journalists, Amanda Hirst, the force’s PR chief, replied merely that her department did not undertake any “off-the-record briefings.” As well as drawing an unasked semantic distinction between contact and more formal “briefings,” that doesn’t rule out the possibility of contact between journalists and non-press office staff.
Ms Hirst also revealed that there was a “criminal investigation into possible leaks” from the murder inquiry. At least two people were arrested for it, though it doesn’t seem they were charged. Four years later, an internal investigation into the matter continues; the wheels of police discipline grind slowly in Avon and Somerset. '
"The embarrassing over analysis of movements in opinion polls continues"
"Who wants to price up a bet that the order in tonight's yougov is the same as the GE?"
Tbf that might be seen as reinforcing the idea that movements in individual polls ain't that interesting (though probably the wrong site to make that point!).
Trying to keep it a little short to avoid derailing the thread.
The cycleroute isn't a problem. The trackbed is double track and there is room for a single track railway and the cycle track (as is already the case for the last two open miles between Okehampton Stn and Meldon Viaduct, where the track and cycleway already run together on the trackbed. AIUI Devon CC own the 10 mile cycletrack on the closed trackbed not Sustrans, which means most of the route is owned by a single public body (so fewer landowner issues). Nat Park I think are not that bothered by it as it gets people into the park on public transport.
The reversing twice would be a problem if it became the main intercity line, but for a diversionary route that is fine. Even in pre nationalisation days the old Great Western and Southern railway drivers were trained on route knowledge of each others line because both used each others route for diversions so often.
AIUI The £900 million included about 40-60% contingency on top of the cost which was for a full blown double track intercity railway, not a secondary single track diversionary route. Apparently the contingency cost is buried in one of the NR reports. I got that from a members railway email group.
Aside from a handful of houses in parts of Tavistock (I believe the council offices are on the old station goods yard) a missing brodge over the A386 at Tavistock and minor missing bridges at Sourton & Brentor all the structures are intact and solid granite and the trackbed is basically unobstructed -except Meldon viaduct. The £900 million I gather assumed it would be rebuilt, but apparently the feasibility of refurbing/strengthening it is now to be looked at.
The old LSWR Exeter-Plymouth line will be cheaper and more politically popular to reopen.
Therefore, if such a decision is taken, I expect this option will be chosen.
@Dannythefink: UKIP's Dulwich candidate says Malaysian airlines flight didnt crash might have been scheme to hide illegal immigrants http://t.co/m7KUzp3ebq
Peaked...
Lib Dem candidate for Twickenham says don't ban hate preachers from universities.
And Labour Mayoral Candidate (and well known Mastermind contestant) seems to think that punishments for shop lifting should some how be based upon how rich the shop is....it seems there a good number of politicians who are totally detached from the real world.
On topic: I think the two most likely movements tonight are either Green to Lab or UKIP to Con. As it gets serious, reason will start to beat sentiment.
The puzzle for me is the Lab Kippers. The best fit to current shares (in my model) is that UKIP is attracting 12% of the previous Labour vote and 10% (and shrinking) of the previous Tory vote. Tory Kippers are coming home. Lab Kippers are not.
Current snapshot using Feb Poll of Polls is Lab/Con share of 34%/34% and seats 282/272. But if half the Lab Kippers come home so only 6% remain with UKIP, the result is share of 35.6%/34% and seats of 301/260.
If all the Lab Kippers came home then it is a Labour majority - but that isn't going to happen.
Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.
I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.
But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.
I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
Oh for goodness sake Casino not this again. Even if the Tories wanted to commit budgetary suicide, the Libdems are not going to sign up to IHT cuts when they have this on their website
The Conservatives can't be trusted to deliver fair taxes by themselves. We blocked their plans to give millionaires a £270,000 inheritance tax cut and they refuse to create a mansion tax because they are worried it would affect their big donors.
Easy. The threshold won't be raised to £1million. It'll be raised to £650k (the current married couples threshold) for each individual, so that it's equally fair to cohabiting siblings - who are growing. Or perhaps £740k, where it would be allowing for inflation. So no millionaires tax cut.
You forget politicians aren't like normal people: they almost always word things to give themselves wiggle room. But I don't think it'd be anything less than politically popular anyway.
You can twist it in and out, slice it this way and that turn it round and round and upside down but it still won't change the reality the the Libdems have boasted how they've blocked it. If they U-turn its the Tuition fees all over again. Labour will slaughter both of them. Before an election it is just not worth the hassle and risk.
It ain't going to happen so why you keep flogging this dead horse I have no idea.....
Fluffily (where's Fluffy thoughts?) I'll just say that I've never read the Sun, and that the splendid name "Tom Newton Dunn" would grace a poem by Betjeman.
But the Budget is a Government statement, not a Conservative Party statement.
There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.
Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
I think you're wrong.
The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".
This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.
I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
Well we'll see.
There's a fundamental problem with your proposal that the LDs won't like:
IHT starts at £325k. If IHT is cut it benefits anyone just above the £325k figure.
In contrast any new council tax bands would only come in at £1m minimum.
So the overall effect is that anyone in the £325k to £1m range gets a major win.
They won't raise council tax as low as £325k - if they did it would be political suicide - an increased annual cost for modest homes - whereas most people aren't expecting to die soon - so benefit of IHT cut is a distant thing.
I'm sure Con will announce an IHT cut - but it will be Con manifesto, not Budget.
Yes but Council Tax is on 1980s (?) property values, and any new band would also be at values from the same time, so £325k = 1.5 million (? guess) today
Sure - I'm obviously talking about today's values.
My point is that the LDs are not going to agree to a large tax cut for people with homes with a value today in the range £325k to £1m.
Why? In Sutton & Cheam, Cheadle, Solihull, Sheffield Hallam, Bristol West, Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton there are plenty of properties like that.
The Lib Dems won't be thanked for blocking it. And they need tactical votes from the Tories to survive.
Houses under a million in Twickenham - Do those exist ?
@Dannythefink: UKIP's Dulwich candidate says Malaysian airlines flight didnt crash might have been scheme to hide illegal immigrants http://t.co/m7KUzp3ebq
Peaked...
Lib Dem candidate for Twickenham says don't ban hate preachers from universities.
And Labour Mayoral Candidate (and well known Mastermind contestant) seems to think that punishments for shop lifting should some how be based upon how rich the shop is....it seems there a good number of politicians who are totally detached from the real world.
He doesn't think that.
Speaking to Politics.co.uk after the launch, Lammy insisted his recommendations had been taken out of context.
"In 2014, effectively the government changed the rules and said that if you shoplift and if the value is less than £200 it should not be deemed serious. I have heard a lot of evidence from independent retailers that this is very problematic because for them 40, 50, 60 pounds day after day, that really does effect their bottom lines.
He attacked the Mail's reporting as "spurious".
"I can't account for those papers who have spuriously suggested [I had claimed] that it is okay to steal from Fortnum and Masons. It is not okay to steal from anybody and the whole thrust of this report is can we take theft more seriously whoever it is from and I can't underline that enough."
The central thrust of Lammy's report is that low-level property crime has been"effectively decriminalised" and that the police should be tougher on it.
To somehow suggest he is arguing the opposite is clearly misleading.
Ed Davey was taking OWNERSHIP of the tuition fee hike. He must be very popular in his constituency, as I can't see who could vote for him tactically either on the left or the right.
Trying to keep it a little short to avoid derailing the thread.
(Snip)
The reversing twice would be a problem if it became the main intercity line, but for a diversionary route that is fine. Even in pre nationalisation days the old Great Western and Southern railway drivers were trained on route knowledge of each others line because both used each others route for diversions so often.
AIUI The £900 million included about 40-60% contingency on top of the cost which was for a full blown double track intercity railway, not a secondary single track diversionary route. Apparently the contingency cost is buried in one of the NR reports. I got that from a members railway email group.
Aside from a handful of houses in parts of Tavistock (I believe the council offices are on the old station goods yard) a missing brodge over the A386 at Tavistock and minor missing bridges at Sourton & Brentor all the structures are intact and solid granite and the trackbed is basically unobstructed -except Meldon viaduct. The £900 million I gather assumed it would be rebuilt, but apparently the feasibility of refurbing/strengthening it is now to be looked at.
This reminds me of an old engineering mantra a manager of mine used to use: "there are no problems, only complexities!" ;-)
The complexity with building only a single-track railway (even with dynamic loops (*)) suitable for local services is that it may prove hard to fit paths for the extra services required when / if it becomes a diversionary route. The cheaper you go, the less capacity it has. And if the main impetus for reopening is to act as a diversionary route (with a side benefit of local services), then it should be fit for that purpose. Reducing or stopping local services to allow diversionary services would not be popular.
If the Okehampton line is to be reopened, they should spend the money and do it properly wrt the services that will run along it.
I think whichever option that choose will be popular in the southwest - it may not be people's first preference, but any option is potentially better than another outage.
(*) I know at this point I'll have confused all but the most obsessed railway nuts. For a car analogy, think of all those short sections of dual carriageway that were all the rage in the 70s and 80s and that led to loads of head-on collisions. Basically, they are passing loops that are long enough for the train being passed to continue at speed.
Incidentally, for those interested in rail, I hear from my contacts in the infrastructure industry that this project is now gathering a lot of steam (no pun intended)
It aims to link the Baltic states to Berlin and the EU standard gauge network. It also has a major security function, I understand, and the specifications will include structural gauge clearances for NATO military movements.
On topic: I think the two most likely movements tonight are either Green to Lab or UKIP to Con. As it gets serious, reason will start to beat sentiment.
The puzzle for me is the Lab Kippers. The best fit to current shares (in my model) is that UKIP is attracting 12% of the previous Labour vote and 10% (and shrinking) of the previous Tory vote. Tory Kippers are coming home. Lab Kippers are not.
Current snapshot using Feb Poll of Polls is Lab/Con share of 34%/34% and seats 282/272. But if half the Lab Kippers come home so only 6% remain with UKIP, the result is share of 35.6%/34% and seats of 301/260.
If all the Lab Kippers came home then it is a Labour majority - but that isn't going to happen.
I've been saying for ages the WWC will never return to the Labour Party that abandoned them.
@Dannythefink: UKIP's Dulwich candidate says Malaysian airlines flight didnt crash might have been scheme to hide illegal immigrants http://t.co/m7KUzp3ebq
Peaked...
Lib Dem candidate for Twickenham says don't ban hate preachers from universities.
And Labour Mayoral Candidate (and well known Mastermind contestant) seems to think that punishments for shop lifting should some how be based upon how rich the shop is....it seems there a good number of politicians who are totally detached from the real world.
He doesn't think that.
Speaking to Politics.co.uk after the launch, Lammy insisted his recommendations had been taken out of context.
"In 2014, effectively the government changed the rules and said that if you shoplift and if the value is less than £200 it should not be deemed serious. I have heard a lot of evidence from independent retailers that this is very problematic because for them 40, 50, 60 pounds day after day, that really does effect their bottom lines.
He attacked the Mail's reporting as "spurious".
"I can't account for those papers who have spuriously suggested [I had claimed] that it is okay to steal from Fortnum and Masons. It is not okay to steal from anybody and the whole thrust of this report is can we take theft more seriously whoever it is from and I can't underline that enough."
The central thrust of Lammy's report is that low-level property crime has been"effectively decriminalised" and that the police should be tougher on it.
To somehow suggest he is arguing the opposite is clearly misleading.
It wasn't just the Mail...the Guardian and Telegraph ran the same article and a whole follow up about if stealing from big or small shops different. Can't trust the papers these days.
Also, I have seen the section (as highlighted in the link) and it does say that...and I didn't say it was about softer sentences...I don't agree that where you stole something from matter...is sentences are too soft in general, well toughen them up.
Incidentally, for those interested in rail, I hear from my contacts in the infrastructure industry that this project is now gathering a lot of steam (no pun intended)
It aims to link the Baltic states to Berlin and the EU standard gauge network. It also has a major security function, I understand, and the specifications will include structural gauge clearances for NATO military movements.
Thanks - I hadn't head about that one. It's not as ambitious as China's plan for a high-speed line from their fine country into Europe: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28289319
Seems like Millwall fans had their annual jolly up at Rotherham last Saturday, I work with someone who is a season ticket holder at Rotherham and he said it was mayhem with 1,300 Millwall turning up.
Apparently it got really nasty when the Millwall contingent kept singing 'You knew, and you did f*** all' at the South Yorkshire plod, who obviously don't like having the truth thrown at them.
Also they sang "You only sing when your grooming" apparently
Not a fan of Millwall or their supporters. But well done to them, plod absolutely should have this thrown in their faces again and again. And any other forces that have allowed this to happen.
Andrew Neil @afneil 8s8 seconds ago High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.
Andrew Neil @afneil 8s8 seconds ago High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.
Bloody hell, Ed must be going spare.
Oh......
Ed has been tweeting his disgust at this outrage since the new broke....
Incidentally, for those interested in rail, I hear from my contacts in the infrastructure industry that this project is now gathering a lot of steam (no pun intended)
It aims to link the Baltic states to Berlin and the EU standard gauge network. It also has a major security function, I understand, and the specifications will include structural gauge clearances for NATO military movements.
Thanks - I hadn't head about that one. It's not as ambitious as China's plan for a high-speed line from their fine country into Europe: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28289319
Osborne has very little scope for anything in his budget.He is caught in a pincer trap, a 'giveaway' would be considered only as uncosted electioneering.Vague promises about housing, pensions etc just won't do and raising the IHT threshold would again be pandering to the already fortunate.Poor George has left it too late to make any difference and all will be forgotten on May 7th.
Ed wants to overturn 'historic convictions under indecency laws.'
Coming soon pardons for those who were involved in burning Protestants in Lewes.
I can understand why people want them overturned, but it would set a very costly and time-consuming process. We are governed by the laws which are in the statute book today, not 100 years ago, and definitely not 100 years in the future. More populism from the Labour benches, and it makes me despair for the future if they win (I know, hyperbole)
Osborne has very little scope for anything in his budget.He is caught in a pincer trap, a 'giveaway' would be considered only as uncosted electioneering.Vague promises about housing, pensions etc just won't do and raising the IHT threshold would again be pandering to the already fortunate.Poor George has left it too late to make any difference and all will be forgotten on May 7th.
It doesn't matter though, the tories are home and dry anyway.
They seem to be forecasting a tory gain in the borders too.
These boys are serious players, I've paid attention to their prognostications.
Some of their individual seat predictions look a bit dodgy (Tories 99% probable to recover Rochester & Stroud for example) but the overall picture looks pretty credible.
Osborne has very little scope for anything in his budget.He is caught in a pincer trap, a 'giveaway' would be considered only as uncosted electioneering.Vague promises about housing, pensions etc just won't do and raising the IHT threshold would again be pandering to the already fortunate.Poor George has left it too late to make any difference and all will be forgotten on May 7th.
Excellent of Labour spinners to dampen expectation ahead of the budget !
They seem to be forecasting a tory gain in the borders too.
These boys are serious players, I've paid attention to their prognostications.
Some of their individual seat predictions look a bit dodgy (Tories 99% probable to recover Rochester & Stroud for example) but the overall picture looks pretty credible.
I think they're understimating UKIP and... the SNP (Slightly)
They seem to be forecasting a tory gain in the borders too.
These boys are serious players, I've paid attention to their prognostications.
Some of their individual seat predictions look a bit dodgy (Tories 99% probable to recover Rochester & Stroud for example) but the overall picture looks pretty credible.
I think they're understimating UKIP and... the SNP (Slightly)
The SNP is a tricky one because the margins in quite a lot of SLAB seats are so similar that significant numbers could hang on or they could all go together as they did in 2011. Quite a small change in the swing could have a very big outcome in the seats.
Wishful thinking on my part indicates that they might underperform. They certainly did in 2010 which gave no indication at all of what was coming. Some of this was because they were husbanding resources for the more important fight and some because they do have a tendency to get squeezed in UK elections. It may be wishful thinking but I think they have the SNP about right.
My info is the SNP campaign is overpowering both Tory and Lib in Borders. On Saturday they had a team of 30 out and about in Hawick compared to a handful for the Tories and 2 or 3 for the poor Lib Dems.
Reading the tweet in the header I think UKIP and the Greens must be involved as it says two "different" parties and we all know the other three are all the same
They seem to be forecasting a tory gain in the borders too.
These boys are serious players, I've paid attention to their prognostications.
Some of their individual seat predictions look a bit dodgy (Tories 99% probable to recover Rochester & Stroud for example) but the overall picture looks pretty credible.
I think they're understimating UKIP and... the SNP (Slightly)
The SNP is a tricky one because the margins in quite a lot of SLAB seats are so similar that significant numbers could hang on or they could all go together as they did in 2011. Quite a small change in the swing could have a very big outcome in the seats.
Wishful thinking on my part indicates that they might underperform. They certainly did in 2010 which gave no indication at all of what was coming. Some of this was because they were husbanding resources for the more important fight and some because they do have a tendency to get squeezed in UK elections. It may be wishful thinking but I think they have the SNP about right.
The 2010 SNP General Election campaign was so poor I thought it was a piece of surrealist performance art because I couldn't believe they would be so deliberately bad.
They seem to be forecasting a tory gain in the borders too.
These boys are serious players, I've paid attention to their prognostications.
Some of their individual seat predictions look a bit dodgy (Tories 99% probable to recover Rochester & Stroud for example) but the overall picture looks pretty credible.
I think they're understimating UKIP and... the SNP (Slightly)
The SNP is a tricky one because the margins in quite a lot of SLAB seats are so similar that significant numbers could hang on or they could all go together as they did in 2011. Quite a small change in the swing could have a very big outcome in the seats.
Wishful thinking on my part indicates that they might underperform. They certainly did in 2010 which gave no indication at all of what was coming. Some of this was because they were husbanding resources for the more important fight and some because they do have a tendency to get squeezed in UK elections. It may be wishful thinking but I think they have the SNP about right.
Reading the tweet in the header I think UKIP and the Greens must be involved as it says two "different" parties and we all know the other three are all the same
By different perhaps he means one right wing (can only be Con) and one left wing (Lab, LD, Green or Ukip)..
They seem to be forecasting a tory gain in the borders too.
These boys are serious players, I've paid attention to their prognostications.
Some of their individual seat predictions look a bit dodgy (Tories 99% probable to recover Rochester & Stroud for example) but the overall picture looks pretty credible.
I think they're understimating UKIP and... the SNP (Slightly)
The SNP is a tricky one because the margins in quite a lot of SLAB seats are so similar that significant numbers could hang on or they could all go together as they did in 2011. Quite a small change in the swing could have a very big outcome in the seats.
Wishful thinking on my part indicates that they might underperform. They certainly did in 2010 which gave no indication at all of what was coming. Some of this was because they were husbanding resources for the more important fight and some because they do have a tendency to get squeezed in UK elections. It may be wishful thinking but I think they have the SNP about right.
The 2010 SNP General Election campaign was so poor I thought it was a piece of surrealist performance art because I couldn't believe they would be so deliberately bad.
Well it certainly lulled Labour into a false sense of security! They thought they could win back Holyrood with someone as useless as Iain Gray after that.
Cannot believe that Murphy gave him the education slot. It is an area of great vulnerability for the SNP and they gave it to the invisible man. A rare but serious mistake.
My info is the SNP campaign is overpowering both Tory and Lib in Borders. On Saturday they had a team of 30 out and about in Hawick compared to a handful for the Tories and 2 or 3 for the poor Lib Dems.
I have heard otherwise but I have also heard that the Lib Dems have pretty much given up on Kincardine, not to the Tories but to the SNP coming from 3rd.
My info is the SNP campaign is overpowering both Tory and Lib in Borders. On Saturday they had a team of 30 out and about in Hawick compared to a handful for the Tories and 2 or 3 for the poor Lib Dems.
I have heard otherwise but I have also heard that the Lib Dems have pretty much given up on Kincardine, not to the Tories but to the SNP coming from 3rd.
The irony of this thread is it based on a tweet from an employee of the paper who has single handedly turned polling into a snore bore....
News international have ruined polling in this country. The problem is the more polls that are published the more rogues you get and because the rogues are the most exciting ones they are the ones that get publicised the most, despite there being literally dozens of surrounding polls which cast doubt on the rogues.
Add to that the proliferation of increasingly biased propagandist supplementary questions (e.g. the ITV's polling last week) and frankly the whole thing is becoming rather sordid
I like polls (what else would we talk about every day?) but there's a lot in what you say. But at least the frequency means that rogues get reversed next day. If we only had one a week, it could seriously affect the political climate without reflecting anything at all.
The old LSWR Exeter-Plymouth line will be cheaper and more politically popular to reopen.
Therefore, if such a decision is taken, I expect this option will be chosen.
Agree, but it's probably not the best long-term option, especially if electrification is mooted.
It's one of these situations where there is no 'right' answer - whichever decision is made has advantages and disadvantages.
But I see any of the decisions being vote winners.
The "you can't electrify through the sea wall at Dawlish" meme is something of a strawman. As these photographs of Scotlands 25kV electrified equivalent, the atlantic sea wall in Ayrshire,taken quite recently show, courtesy Dailies Record and Mail.
You Wouldn't need to reinstate the Okehampton route as double track. If you wanted capacity for an hourly local service plus an hourly diverted service then a set of points at Coleford junction to give Coleford -Crediton double track using existing track, a three mile dynamic loop from Okehampton to Sampford Courtney, a three mile dynamic loop between Lydford and Marytavy (where a third old track the old GW Launceston Branch runs parallel and could host any future cycleway extension) and a three mile Dynamic loop at Bere Alston would allow a half hourly service.
Double track all the way would be a nice luxury but Salisbury - Exeter would be first in the queue for that, and Waterloo - Exeter is one of the most reliable routes in the country despite being mostly single track west of Salisbury.
My own view is get the line reinstated as bareboned cheaply as possible. Once running, if successful, it can be upgraded. If you load too much on the reopening costs it will never happen.
Eek I have some bets in one or two of those "Bad places for the SNP" constituencies (£40 6-4 Central Ayrshire, £30 @ 6-5 Stirling
Not necessarily bad, just they make me nervous until we get a better picture about whether tactical voting might in fact happen.
Sure - I think it will be tricky for Conservatives to vote tactically though, @Thescreamingeagles can barely bring himself to not waste his vote in Sheffield Hallam. And that is a much easier transfer than Tory -> Labour. I wouldn't be able to bring myself to vote Labour, ever. In the blood !
Eek I have some bets in one or two of those "Bad places for the SNP" constituencies (£40 6-4 Central Ayrshire, £30 @ 6-5 Stirling
Not necessarily bad, just they make me nervous until we get a better picture about whether tactical voting might in fact happen.
Sure - I think it will be tricky for Conservatives to vote tactically though, @Thescreamingeagles can barely bring himself to not waste his vote in Sheffield Hallam. And that is a much easier transfer than Tory -> Labour. I wouldn't be able to bring myself to vote Labour, ever. In the blood !
Mine is part of a vote swap with Sunil to ensure Lee Scott holds on in Ilford North.
So it is a tactical vote for the Tories, plus Clegg will hold on regardless of my vote.
Comments
In political terms most Cons and Libdems favour reopening the LSW route via Okehampton (realistic cost £250-£500 million) as it gives all sorts of benefits throughout the area.
Labour, who only have representatiives in Exeter and Plymouth, want a Dawlish Diversion (about £2.5 billion and nimby outrage with no benefit to North / Mid/ West Devon and North Cornwall).
The irony of this thread is it based on a tweet from an employee of the paper who has single handedly turned polling into a snore bore....
News international have ruined polling in this country. The problem is the more polls that are published the more rogues you get and because the rogues are the most exciting ones they are the ones that get publicised the most, despite there being literally dozens of surrounding polls which cast doubt on the rogues.
Add to that the proliferation of increasingly biased propagandist supplementary questions (e.g. the ITV's polling last week) and frankly the whole thing is becoming rather sordid
The Oakhampton option has the problem of being around a national park, parts have a cycleway on it, it does not serve the population centres of South Devon, and requires two reversals for trains going on to Penzance. Pathing might be a problem north of Exeter. There are also some buildings on the line (including, I think, council office in a piece of really well-thought-out local planning).
In addition, AIUI the soon-to-be-reopened Tavistock section is only being developed for local passenger services. That is easily rectifiable if they make the decision to reopen the whole thing soon.
On the other hand, it could form a genuine local service to both Plymouth and Exeter, and would be more useful as a non-diversionary service. It'll attract both local support and local opposition from nimbys.
The Dawlish diversion is simpler from a planning point of view (esp. with respect to the national park), will easily allow later electrification (which the Oakhampton line would not), is easier operationally, and will allow faster journey times. It will be more expensive, but also serves the major population centres of Torbay, which the Oakhampton alternative does not.
I'd love to know where you got the figures for the Oakhampton contingency from .
It's horses for courses. I'd be happy with either (or both!)
Eight-year old Vishal Mehrotra was murdered on his way home to Putney.
His father said he had given the police a recording of a man who claimed Vishal had been abducted and killed by "highly placed" paedophiles.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31717179
Telegraph go further...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11447447/IPCC-to-investigate-whether-police-covered-up-eight-year-old-boys-murder.html
Who knows if anything in it.
Just like Rotherham council and the South Yorkshire police.
Until we start putting plods and social workers in jail this level of abuse is going to continue.
And that includes council executives and chief plods as well as their minions.
Instead of letting them retire with payoffs and full pensions and then seeing them given other jobs by their mates.
"Take it that you've not been to the SW lately."
Osborne for all his many failings does understand that a budget a month before a close election isn't a time to preach to the choir. If he wants to turn the East Midlands airport into an international hub-though boring-at least it might have a purpose
Simples.
"It'd be better than watching one of your adverts. ;-)"
At last we agree on something!!
We disagree strongly about most things. But the unfairness of IHT is one thing that unites most of them. In several cases it will be the only hope they have of ever owning a home.
Chris EUBANK
Vanessa FELTZ
Anna FRIEL
Jade GOODY
Nigella LAWSON
Paul O'GRADY
Billie PIPER
Magdi YACOUB
Were these known beforehand?
CON
LAB
UKIP
Lib Dem
Green
SNP
PC
Seats wise
CON (Just)
LAB
SNP
Lib Dem
UKIP
PC
Green
Must be the orders... Wouldn't know how to price them up though.
You forget politicians aren't like normal people: they almost always word things to give themselves wiggle room. But I don't think it'd be anything less than politically popular anyway.
Peaked...
"Who wants to price up a bet that the order in tonight's yougov is the same as the GE?"
The Lib Dems won't be thanked for blocking it. And they need tactical votes from the Tories to survive.
That poor bloke got the treatment from the plods as well:
' Avon and Somerset Police admit “inadvertently” releasing Jefferies’ name. They deny leaking their belief in his guilt, but with plenty of wiggle room. Asked in her own statement to Leveson whether there had been any off-the-record contact between herself or her staff and journalists, Amanda Hirst, the force’s PR chief, replied merely that her department did not undertake any “off-the-record briefings.” As well as drawing an unasked semantic distinction between contact and more formal “briefings,” that doesn’t rule out the possibility of contact between journalists and non-press office staff.
Ms Hirst also revealed that there was a “criminal investigation into possible leaks” from the murder inquiry. At least two people were arrested for it, though it doesn’t seem they were charged. Four years later, an internal investigation into the matter continues; the wheels of police discipline grind slowly in Avon and Somerset. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/11287037/Christopher-Jefferies-was-treated-disgracefully-by-the-police-not-just-the-press.html
Latest #GE2015 Forecast from @UKElect
LABOUR 288
CONSERVATIVES 262
SNP 44
LIBDEM 32
PC 3
UKIP 1
GREENS 1
OTHER 19
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/uk-elect-general-election-forecast.html
The puzzle for me is the Lab Kippers. The best fit to current shares (in my model) is that UKIP is attracting 12% of the previous Labour vote and 10% (and shrinking) of the previous Tory vote. Tory Kippers are coming home. Lab Kippers are not.
Current snapshot using Feb Poll of Polls is Lab/Con share of 34%/34% and seats 282/272.
But if half the Lab Kippers come home so only 6% remain with UKIP, the result is share of 35.6%/34% and seats of 301/260.
If all the Lab Kippers came home then it is a Labour majority - but that isn't going to happen.
It ain't going to happen so why you keep flogging this dead horse I have no idea.....
Speaking to Politics.co.uk after the launch, Lammy insisted his recommendations had been taken out of context.
"In 2014, effectively the government changed the rules and said that if you shoplift and if the value is less than £200 it should not be deemed serious. I have heard a lot of evidence from independent retailers that this is very problematic because for them 40, 50, 60 pounds day after day, that really does effect their bottom lines.
He attacked the Mail's reporting as "spurious".
"I can't account for those papers who have spuriously suggested [I had claimed] that it is okay to steal from Fortnum and Masons. It is not okay to steal from anybody and the whole thrust of this report is can we take theft more seriously whoever it is from and I can't underline that enough."
The central thrust of Lammy's report is that low-level property crime has been"effectively decriminalised" and that the police should be tougher on it.
To somehow suggest he is arguing the opposite is clearly misleading.
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2015/03/03/did-david-lammy-really-say-it-s-okay-to-steal-from-fortnum-a
Iron maiden then make me a cup of tea
The notorious B.I.G.O.T
Simple minds
Were quite witty I thought
Ed Davey was taking OWNERSHIP of the tuition fee hike. He must be very popular in his constituency, as I can't see who could vote for him tactically either on the left or the right.
The complexity with building only a single-track railway (even with dynamic loops (*)) suitable for local services is that it may prove hard to fit paths for the extra services required when / if it becomes a diversionary route. The cheaper you go, the less capacity it has. And if the main impetus for reopening is to act as a diversionary route (with a side benefit of local services), then it should be fit for that purpose. Reducing or stopping local services to allow diversionary services would not be popular.
If the Okehampton line is to be reopened, they should spend the money and do it properly wrt the services that will run along it.
I think whichever option that choose will be popular in the southwest - it may not be people's first preference, but any option is potentially better than another outage.
(*) I know at this point I'll have confused all but the most obsessed railway nuts. For a car analogy, think of all those short sections of dual carriageway that were all the rage in the 70s and 80s and that led to loads of head-on collisions. Basically, they are passing loops that are long enough for the train being passed to continue at speed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_Baltica
It aims to link the Baltic states to Berlin and the EU standard gauge network. It also has a major security function, I understand, and the specifications will include structural gauge clearances for NATO military movements.
It's one of these situations where there is no 'right' answer - whichever decision is made has advantages and disadvantages.
But I see any of the decisions being vote winners.
Also, I have seen the section (as highlighted in the link) and it does say that...and I didn't say it was about softer sentences...I don't agree that where you stole something from matter...is sentences are too soft in general, well toughen them up.
U2 can come here and claim free money
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28289319
He went from Barking to Tooting in 45 minutes.
Oh......
Only kidding.
Because in France, one egg is un oeuf
It is free from the usual smut.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh41xkRaKxc
Nein.
Coming soon pardons for those who were involved in burning Protestants in Lewes.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
Please put spaces after full stops.
Wishful thinking on my part indicates that they might underperform. They certainly did in 2010 which gave no indication at all of what was coming. Some of this was because they were husbanding resources for the more important fight and some because they do have a tendency to get squeezed in UK elections. It may be wishful thinking but I think they have the SNP about right.
Cannot believe that Murphy gave him the education slot. It is an area of great vulnerability for the SNP and they gave it to the invisible man. A rare but serious mistake.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/mapping-snp-surge-return-to-scottish.html
http://i4.dailyrecord.co.uk/incoming/article4780773.ece/alternates/s615/weather.png
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/09/12/article-2036158-0DD870E500000578-925_634x286.jpg
You Wouldn't need to reinstate the Okehampton route as double track. If you wanted capacity for an hourly local service plus an hourly diverted service then a set of points at Coleford junction to give Coleford -Crediton double track using existing track, a three mile dynamic loop from Okehampton to Sampford Courtney, a three mile dynamic loop between Lydford and Marytavy (where a third old track the old GW Launceston Branch runs parallel and could host any future cycleway extension) and a three mile Dynamic loop at Bere Alston would allow a half hourly service.
Double track all the way would be a nice luxury but Salisbury - Exeter would be first in the queue for that, and Waterloo - Exeter is one of the most reliable routes in the country despite being mostly single track west of Salisbury.
My own view is get the line reinstated as bareboned cheaply as possible. Once running, if successful, it can be upgraded. If you load too much on the reopening costs it will never happen.
Most enjoyable discussion.
So it is a tactical vote for the Tories, plus Clegg will hold on regardless of my vote.