Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever could this mean?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever could this mean?
The next twenty-four hours is going to be fascinating, as well as this YouGov poll, at 5pm on Wednesday, Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest batch of constituency polling from both England and Scotland.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.
ie Green, Libdem and UKIP up a point or two each , Labour down foru or five five, tories static or dropping a bit from yesterday but with much extended lead due to labour being corked by the smaller parties.
blockquote class="Quote" rel="glw"> If there is any justice the Mirror Group will go bust. A scum paper written by scum.
On the individual seat forecast Con lead is 20 (292/272).
The above is based on a forecast Con vote lead of 2.2%.
So Hanretty sort of in line with Kellner - a small Con vote lead translates into a small Con seat lead.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
What we need are some thought provoking threads about things not directly concerned with miniscule poll movements that may or may not mean anything.. Dare I say it, interesting threads on political philosophy is something that the site is very low on
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
"In opening statements, he estimated that more than 2,000 calls were made to try to access voicemail messages in the case of Mr Yentob alone.
The court heard that one journalist hacked the phones of celebrities about 100 times a day between 2003 and 2004."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31712894
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-03-03/phone-hacking-rife-at-mirror-group-newspapers/
How many Labour politicians have taken the Mirror's gold in the last 16 years?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2012/07/124410-620x420.jpg
http://order-order.com/2010/09/10/take-a-look-in-the-mirror/
So in Britain we have a situation where the judge charged with investigating the crimes carried out by the media is covering up their crimes."
http://order-order.com/2012/04/10/britains-biggest-establishment-cover-up-conspiracy-thousands-of-crimes-committed-by-over-300-journalists-protected-from-exposure-by-a-judge-and-newspaper-editors/
Osborne likes big-bang. So my bets are still a headline-grabbing IHT cut (the freeze expires at the end of this FY) and new council tax bands for the highest value homes.
I also expect a small downpayment on his tax pledge from 1st October last year, to show what can be expected from a Conservative 2nd term if we stick to the "long-term economic plan". That might include a small lift in the 40p threshold and/or (probably and) a lift in the income tax-free allowance threshold.
You can draw your own conclusion about why the outrage was directed in one particular direction.
http://order-order.com/2012/04/10/britains-biggest-establishment-cover-up-conspiracy-thousands-of-crimes-committed-by-over-300-journalists-protected-from-exposure-by-a-judge-and-newspaper-editors/
There is zero chance of the LDs agreeing to an IHT cut. Literally zero. Not even 0.01%.
Sure, the Conservatives may announce anything as Conservative Party policy. But it will not be in the Budget. Unless the Coalition is formally dissolved beforehand.
And it turned into Greenpeace PR Dead Seagull - it's a joke. All up itself by not covering Royal stories in the past despite her being Head of State.
I squirm at my idealism all those years ago - I honestly thought for a year or so that their editorial panel had integrity - then they morphed straight back into their own pond.
Urgh. Just like the BBC = group think replacing honesty and full of self righteous angst.
I'm talking about the initial launch when I was still at school - so back in the mid 80s. I read the DTele and Times [when it wasn't on strike] back as a kid.
I wasn't your typical child! My favourite TV show was Horizon when I was about 10yrs old.
Bottom line is LDs have to agree to the Budget - Danny Alexander walks out of 11 Downing Street with Osborne - Osborne isn't going to suddenly say something the LDs haven't agreed.
Dan Hodges retweeted
Guido Fawkes@GuidoFawkes·2h2 hours ago
Giant story coming up.
EDIT - hang on, tell me its not whether Ed stood on a box or not??
Jeez
But I hope you are wrong and that he doesn't do these things.
The Lib Dems will agree to an IHT cut if they get something in return. In this case, that'd be higher local property taxes on higher value homes. It'd be sold as; "if you're in a high-value home, you can expect to make a bit more of a contribution for the local services you use whilst you're living, but not to be punished by the taxman when you want to pass on what's yours to your children when you die".
This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.
I think there are plenty of Lib Dems who'd want to take ownership of it as well. Many sitting Lib Dem MPs represent affluent middle-class areas.
Even if all the Lib Dem backbenches rebel, there's at least 322 votes for the government there and it will pass.
YouGov Prediction
Con Lead 2%
Now where is the Shadsy list of bingo words and phrases?
There's a fundamental problem with your proposal that the LDs won't like:
IHT starts at £325k. If IHT is cut it benefits anyone just above the £325k figure.
In contrast any new council tax bands would only come in at £1m minimum.
So the overall effect is that anyone in the £325k to £1m range gets a major win.
They won't raise council tax as low as £325k - if they did it would be political suicide - an increased annual cost for modest homes - whereas most people aren't expecting to die soon - so benefit of IHT cut is a distant thing.
I'm sure Con will announce an IHT cut - but it will be Con manifesto, not Budget.
This is very much a longshot, and I have no inside knowledge (tm), but I feel that it's possible that the Conservatives may announce some hefty rail developments in the southwest.
This could either be:
*) Funding (or funds for progressing) reopening Tavistock to Meldon as part of a local line, with the possibility of diversionary services from the Dawlish seawall at a cost of about £900 million;
*) A new Dawlish avoiding tunnel (wahey!) under Haldon Hill at £1.5-2.5 billion.
*) Other speed improvements on the South Devon banks.
My reasoning?
1) There are lots of seats up for grabs in the southwest;
2) It partially offsets one argument against HS2 ("See, other people are getting investment!", ignoring the massive amount of money being pumped into electrification)
3) Cameron has made several speeches about the need for improvements.
4) Network Rail is investigating alternatives, especially wrt the CBA /BCR of the alternatives (1).
Personally I favour a new tunnel, but it'd be an interesting development considering Labour's woeful history of rail investment.
(1): http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/
Does he mean movement in different directions?
My point is that the LDs are not going to agree to a large tax cut for people with homes with a value today in the range £325k to £1m.
"This has strong emotional resonance. The average London house-price (and family home) is now way above the IHT threshold. It also provides a solid (and fairer) answer to Labour's mansion tax proposal.".
Do Tories go on living at home with their parents till they're well into their 50's and 60's. If not why describe it as 'the family home'? It's just an asset like money or yachts or anything else. I can't for the life of me see why this should be protected from IHT anymore than any other possession
It's time for Tories to grow up and stop trying to perpetuate their privilege through the generations. If the Libs want to be part of it they'll be in worse trouble than they already are
'Anyone in the 325k to £1m range shouldn't pay IHT at all. The services of a private client solicitor will get IHT down to zero."
how apart from setting up a trust or giving it away 7 years before you die?
I would be more concerned about the risk of a child divorcing and their spouse going after a piece of the inheritance which is something which trusts can deal with.
Hope my dad's around to write a thread :-)
It has always been a big concern of taking positions for the GE....the story could go absolutely anywhere at any time.
"Transfer IHT allowance to spouse, regular gifts to dependants avoids the 7 year rule, trusts, agricultural relief, etc."
They're all automatic anyway. No need to involve a lawyer
I am as on tenterhooks as you are.
The £900 million was priced as an gold plated intercity grade railway with about £400 million contingency.
£200-£500 million is a more realistic price for a single track 75mph diversionary route, nearer £200 million if Meldon Viaduct can be refurbished not rebuilt (which explains the Transport secretary going by train to personally inspect it in December 2014)
Plus six of the twenty missing miles on the Dartmoor route (Bere Alston to Tavistock) are going to happen as a developer funded reopening anyway. With a Parkway Stn at the A30/A386 junction at Sourton and through Waterloo-Plymouth services it would be give swathes of North Devon and Cornwall a boost.
All a Dawlish diversion achieves is a few minutes off the existing journey, with buses still needed if there is a problem west of Newton Abbot and the probable closure of Teignmouth and Dawlish stations next the first time a major problem blocked the sea wall stretch of the line after the diversion opened.
With the Okehampton route all the weekend and overnight possessions to spend £300 making the south devon route resilient wont leave the south west isolated with buses to Plymouth. I would say the Dawlish wall is the least of their worries. The high sandy cliffs above several miles of the track and the curves round the sides of hills on the South Devon Banks west of Newton Abbot would be what kept me awake at night if I was the engineer responsible for that route.
Plus - Labour (as expressed by their two local MPs in Plymouth and Exeter) favour a Dawlish Diversion and are anti reopening the Okehampton Route, whereas the many many more Conservative & Libdem local MPs (other than certain MPs in South Devon) are in favour of reopening the Okehampton route not the unaffordable Dawlish Diversion.
*** Budget prediction ***
This is very much a longshot, and I have no inside knowledge (tm), but I feel that it's possible that the Conservatives may announce some hefty rail developments in the southwest.
This could either be:
*) Funding (or funds for progressing) reopening Tavistock to Meldon as part of a local line, with the possibility of diversionary services from the Dawlish seawall at a cost of about £900 million;
*) A new Dawlish avoiding tunnel (wahey!) under Haldon Hill at £1.5-2.5 billion.
*) Other speed improvements on the South Devon banks.
My reasoning?
1) There are lots of seats up for grabs in the southwest;
2) It partially offsets one argument against HS2 ("See, other people are getting investment!", ignoring the massive amount of money being pumped into electrification)
3) Cameron has made several speeches about the need for improvements.
4) Network Rail is investigating alternatives, especially wrt the CBA /BCR of the alternatives (1).
Personally I favour a new tunnel, but it'd be an interesting development considering Labour's woeful history of rail investment.
(1): http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/
Do you think it would be wise for Osborne to bore the electorate to death on his last budget?
Apparently it got really nasty when the Millwall contingent kept singing 'You knew, and you did f*** all' at the South Yorkshire plod, who obviously don't like having the truth thrown at them.