Eek I have some bets in one or two of those "Bad places for the SNP" constituencies (£40 6-4 Central Ayrshire, £30 @ 6-5 Stirling
Not necessarily bad, just they make me nervous until we get a better picture about whether tactical voting might in fact happen.
Sure - I think it will be tricky for Conservatives to vote tactically though, @Thescreamingeagles can barely bring himself to not waste his vote in Sheffield Hallam. And that is a much easier transfer than Tory -> Labour. I wouldn't be able to bring myself to vote Labour, ever. In the blood !
Mine is part of a vote swap with Sunil to ensure Lee Scott holds on in Ilford North.
So it is a tactical vote for the Tories, plus Clegg will hold on regardless of my vote.
I notice the Yougov hasn't been leaked yet, some people must be sitting on embargoes copies though
Nope, News International are very strict, and no embargoed copies are sent out.
Only they get copies.
Must be a proper ego trip for Mr Newton Dunn
I heard even Rupert Murdoch no longer gets a copy.
After he broke his paper's own embargo 6 hours early with THAT indyref poll.
LOL! Really? I'm sure that can't be true...
From a reliable source.
Maybe they don't send him the results but I'm sure if Rupert emailed and asked them what tonight's YG poll was showing nobody would tell him to P8ss off and wait like everybody would they?
If that's a 25 year polling low for the Lib's then that's also the lowest they've ever been with YouGov because the company didn't come on the scene until around 2002 I think?
5% has not been that unusual for the Lib Dems in Scotland but for the whole country? That would mean that their average score for every seat was on the edge of losing their deposit. That is really put out the lights time.
36% very good for the tories but they still need to squeeze the Labour vote more which is pretty strong as well.
5% has not been that unusual for the Lib Dems in Scotland but for the whole country? That would mean that their average score for every seat was on the edge of losing their deposit. That is really put out the lights time.
36% very good for the tories but they still need to squeeze the Labour vote more which is pretty strong as well.
Yes but one has to wonder just how firm that Labour score is when it comes to turn-out.
We cant even say panic is going to set in, because despite the polls there has been a mindset of defeat for Labour for the last six months. Dan Hodges was right. He called it out. You cant fatten the pig on market day. Labour in opposition havent done the donkey work, the graft, they've relied on sitting back and watching the government make unpopular decisions.
There was an idea mooted a week or so ago on here that we should all fess up to our worst GE bet..
I was going to say my bets vs AntiFrank, TGOHF et al taking 6/4 & 10/11 UKIP to bt Lib Dems on votes was my biggest mistake as only having £300 odd was massive ricket
But last week I backed LD to beat UKIP at 11/4 as a small hedge
@antifrank With the Libdems, I wouldn't be putting the house on the swing being uniform?
No, but beyond a certain point you would expect them to underperform uniform national swing, since not even the Lib Dems can tally negative votes in a constituency.
It may be me. On the yougov survey the other day I moved from Lib to Tory in a fit of pique over pension raids.
In terms of dumb bets: it looks as if I will owe the RNLI £20 and HL a bottle of Islay malt if UKIP get over 6% (I have hedged this with Shadsy though)
We cant even say panic is going to set in, because despite the polls there has been a mindset of defeat for Labour for the last six months. Dan Hodges was right. He called it out. You cant fatten the pig on market day. Labour in opposition havent done the donkey work, the graft, they've relied on sitting back and watching the government make unpopular decisions.
It's come back to haunt them.
The odd thing is that the only time EdM has been courageous was when he challenged his brother.
Then having become Labour leader through his brother's cowardice and complacency he has spent four years imitating than cowardice and complacency.
Just as DM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become Labour leader automatically, EdM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become prime minister automatically.
Comments
@TNS_UK: MT @telegraph:New pro-Union campaign identified tactical voting that could defeat SNP http://bit.ly/1wPC54t ⇦Our poll http://bit.ly/1LQlJBl
I'll get my coat and head for Mornington Crescent.......
A second Mid Staffs and not a single doctor or midwife has lost their job. Shameful.
So it is a tactical vote for the Tories, plus Clegg will hold on regardless of my vote.
I voted in Sheffield Central at the last GE, my Conservative vote made no difference to the result... but it was very close
Beeb ticker
@robindbrant: STORY: looks like @ukip has ditched its net migration target of 50,000, which spokesman was discussing only last week http://t.co/fDq5XJFWPc
Only they get copies.
Couldn't we "hack" them?
After he broke his paper's own embargo 6 hours early with THAT indyref poll.
Forbidden !
I avoid the Mirror like the plague, but you could ask?
Con 36 Lab 34, Lib Dems 5
http://t.co/QBVuFGmqjM
In your face
I am looking forward to a post-election interview with Clegg. Hopefully he will actually cry this time.
So so satisfying:
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/75108000/jpg/_75108785_75108329.jpg
But over analysing polls is boring and muggy anyway
http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/nick-clegg-looking-sad.jpg
36% very good for the tories but they still need to squeeze the Labour vote more which is pretty strong as well.
The Libs still going to get slaughtered
Not all that interesting really
But that's without factoring in Lib Dem incumbency, Scotland, and UKIP.
With the Libdems, I wouldn't be putting the house on the swing being uniform?
It's come back to haunt them.
I was going to say my bets vs AntiFrank, TGOHF et al taking 6/4 & 10/11 UKIP to bt Lib Dems on votes was my biggest mistake as only having £300 odd was massive ricket
But last week I backed LD to beat UKIP at 11/4 as a small hedge
#mug
308 Labour, 3 Plaid, 6 SNP, and 3 SDLP, and Lady Hermon.
3 Lib Dems hold the balance of power.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/572889036022525952
Ooops, sorry, broke the embargo for the next two polls.....
Are you positive? I am sure I have seen a bar chart that proves they can.....
So what are the odds that ALL the LibDems will lose their seats?
That must be a finite probability at this point. Unlikely still, but no longer impossible.
But lowest of the lot, TNS-BMRB/BBC Women's Hour (26th Jan) had them on just 4%
In terms of dumb bets: it looks as if I will owe the RNLI £20 and HL a bottle of Islay malt if UKIP get over 6% (I have hedged this with Shadsy though)
Skybet party over
Hope everyone piled into the 1-3 today.
Then having become Labour leader through his brother's cowardice and complacency he has spent four years imitating than cowardice and complacency.
Just as DM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become Labour leader automatically, EdM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become prime minister automatically.