The "you can't electrify through the sea wall at Dawlish" meme is something of a strawman. As these photographs of Scotlands 25kV electrified equivalent, the atlantic sea wall in Ayrshire,taken quite recently show, courtesy Dailies Record and Mail.
(snip)
You Wouldn't need to reinstate the Okehampton route as double track. If you wanted capacity for an hourly local service plus an hourly diverted service then a set of points at Coleford junction to give Coleford -Crediton double track using existing track, a three mile dynamic loop from Okehampton to Sampford Courtney, a three mile dynamic loop between Lydford and Marytavy (where a third old track the old GW Launceston Branch runs parallel and could host any future cycleway extension) and a three mile Dynamic loop at Bere Alston would allow a half hourly service.
Double track all the way would be a nice luxury but Salisbury - Exeter would be first in the queue for that, and Waterloo - Exeter is one of the most reliable routes in the country despite being mostly single track west of Salisbury.
My own view is get the line reinstated as bareboned cheaply as possible. Once running, if successful, it can be upgraded. If you load too much on the reopening costs it will never happen.
Most enjoyable discussion.
I never said that you 'can't' electrify the Dawlish line. I see three problems: two physical, one human: 1) The weather. Despite what you say above, it would be a problem at times - it is for conventional diesel-electric trains at the moment. 2) The tunnels. Whilst tunnels can be altered to allow the greater headroom required for electrification (usually by high-slung catenary and lowering the tunnel floor), it is an expensive and disruptive process. A new-build tunnel would not have the problem. 3) The biggie. I cannot see putting catenary between the holiday resort of Dawlish and the sea being very popular.
None of these are necessarily showstoppers, but they are problematic.
In addition, it's unlikely that the Okehampton line would ever be able to be electrified due to the proximity to the park, and you also have to factor for *expected* (although not certain) closures of the coastal route due to rising sea levels.
I'll bow to your superior knowledge of the potential train paths on the Okehampton route, but would argue against the bareboned approach. Too often infrastructure projects are bareboned, only for expensive alterations to be required a few years later. The ECML knitting is an example, as is the Scottish Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine line, which is having to be rebuilt just five years after being reopened. It's a mistake I fear they're making with the Borders line as well, although I wish it well.
Short term savings all too often lead to long term expenses - a quote which seems rather applicable to the modern political environment!
I was planning to run an AV thread this afternoon, and it got bumped because of the Issues Index, I was going to run it in the morning, but I need to revise it in light of this poll, so you'll probably get it on Thursday.
This YouGov poll is a snapshot with a sample of 1000 and MOE of 3% etc etc.
However, for fun, compared with the Feb Poll of Polls it would imply:
1) a movement of LD to LAB 2) a movement from Lab to UKIP (UKIP takes 20% of former Lab vote, up from 12%) 3) a movement from UKIP to Con (UKIP takes only 5% of former Con vote, down from 10%)
@antifrank With the Libdems, I wouldn't be putting the house on the swing being uniform?
At 5% or less, UNS starts to apply and the LD's can't escape the electoral black hole.
No, they UNDER perform UNS.
The premise that the LD's will do about 10 seats better than UNS that the polls suggest due to incumbency and tactical voting is around for 4.5 years now, but at 5% Baxter says 3 seats and UNS says 11 seats.
So clearly the LD's at 5% are at the event horizon, where the physical laws of LD local outperformance no longer apply.
Bob Worcester - look at the rating, not the lead. Con rating per last 12 YouGovs:
32 33 32 32 33 33 35 33 33 34 35 36
That does suggest Con rating has definitely moved up - even if last three are randomly high - at a minimum they have surely moved from 32.5 to 33; with decent chance they are now 33.5 (with YouGov methodology).
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
Only UKIP hurts the Tories?
The evidence that Cameron didn't know what he was doing in ignoring or being rude to and about those that have gone off to UKIP is looking somewhat thin this evening.
UKIP is undoubtedly picking up many of the disenchanted but can they get them to actually vote? I suspect a significant % of their support have not bothered in the past because none of the mainstream parties were really talking to them or their concerns.
After all its not going to change the supermarkets multiple buy offers.
It might if the duty cut only applied to on-sales as opposed to off license sales.
This would be a big help to pubs, where beer sales are down nearly 50% over a decade. British pub culture is dying.
I was joking. It wont make any real difference to voting intentions. And given all the stories in the news at the moment, telling us Osborne is going to knock a 1-2p off a pint is comical as the major news.
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
UKIP only hurts the Tories?
Stephen Shakespeare has an interesting article on tax avoidance. Like on so many economic issues Tory supporters are on one side and Lib Dem, Labour and Ukip supporters are on the other. I have a feeling one reason Miliband chooses the attacks on the Tories that he does are not just to try and win blues over to Labour, or Green or Lib Dem, but to dissuade kippers from going back to the Tories.
A Georgia woman was scheduled to die by lethal injection last Wednesday, but the execution was delayed due to the weather (we had snow), She was then scheduled to be executed at 7pm last night, but this too was postponed, as the pentobarbital was 'cloudy'.
Two postponements in 5 days sounds like cruel and unusual punishment.
We cant even say panic is going to set in, because despite the polls there has been a mindset of defeat for Labour for the last six months. Dan Hodges was right. He called it out. You cant fatten the pig on market day. Labour in opposition havent done the donkey work, the graft, they've relied on sitting back and watching the government make unpopular decisions.
It's come back to haunt them.
The odd thing is that the only time EdM has been courageous was when he challenged his brother.
Then having become Labour leader through his brother's cowardice and complacency he has spent four years imitating than cowardice and complacency.
Just as DM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become Labour leader automatically, EdM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become prime minister automatically.
If Miliband loses I think the biggest issue will be his lack of strategic thinking. If I was a party leader I would spend my first year setting down what my key election themes were going to be and then oppose the government in such a way as to fit with my themes. Miliband's thinking seems to be merely short term and he lets himself get pushed around e.g.
-Going on an anti cuts march and then saying he couldn't guarantee to reverse the cuts - Posing for the Sun and then apologising the next day - Forgetting the deficit and then being forced to mention it in another speech - Not being able to defend the mansion tax against Myleene Klass - The energy price freeze that became a price cap
After all its not going to change the supermarkets multiple buy offers.
It might if the duty cut only applied to on-sales as opposed to off license sales.
This would be a big help to pubs, where beer sales are down nearly 50% over a decade. British pub culture is dying.
I was joking. It wont make any real difference to voting intentions. And given all the stories in the news at the moment, telling us Osborne is going to knock a 1-2p off a pint is comical as the major news.
If it is just for on-sales 20p per pint is quite viable.
Good for white van man (err...unless he is driving!)
As a coalitionista, I have to say that the Lib Dems don't deserve the thrashing they're going to get. From my point of view, they've acted responsibly in the coalition, and the country is better off for it.
(Yes, there have been problems, but remember how many people on here and elsewhere in 2010 were expecting the coalition to fall apart within a few months?).
(Dons his flameproof pyjamas as he hops off to bed)
We cant even say panic is going to set in, because despite the polls there has been a mindset of defeat for Labour for the last six months. Dan Hodges was right. He called it out. You cant fatten the pig on market day. Labour in opposition havent done the donkey work, the graft, they've relied on sitting back and watching the government make unpopular decisions.
It's come back to haunt them.
The odd thing is that the only time EdM has been courageous was when he challenged his brother.
Then having become Labour leader through his brother's cowardice and complacency he has spent four years imitating than cowardice and complacency.
Just as DM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become Labour leader automatically, EdM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become prime minister automatically.
If Miliband loses I think the biggest issue will be his lack of strategic thinking. If I was a party leader I would spend my first year setting down what my key election themes were going to be and then oppose the government in such a way as to fit with my themes. Miliband's thinking seems to be merely short term and he lets himself get pushed around e.g.
-Going on an anti cuts march and then saying he couldn't guarantee to reverse the cuts - Posing for the Sun and then apologising the next day - Forgetting the deficit and then being forced to mention it in another speech - Not being able to defend the mansion tax against Myleene Klass - The energy price freeze that became a price cap
Saying he would abolish uni fees, then coming up with a plan to cut them to £6k, but in doing so only helping the rich?
@DavidL The same could be said about the Libdem switchers, and even at the polling booth many will pause before putting the cross?
At current polling levels nearly 1 in 5 of the electorate is a former Lib Dem voter. That is an incredible number of votes to spread around and pretty much everyone is benefitting to some degree, Labour the most of course. But the greens, UKIP and the Tories, they are all getting a slice too.
After all its not going to change the supermarkets multiple buy offers.
It might if the duty cut only applied to on-sales as opposed to off license sales.
This would be a big help to pubs, where beer sales are down nearly 50% over a decade. British pub culture is dying.
I was joking. It wont make any real difference to voting intentions. And given all the stories in the news at the moment, telling us Osborne is going to knock a 1-2p off a pint is comical as the major news.
If it is just for on-sales 20p per pint is quite viable.
Good for white van man (err...unless he is driving!)
Any good feeling from that is probably offset by the fact fuel has crept back up again.
@Speedy On the bright side, if the polls are really starting to move, the phony war is over, and the main event is starting. The bad news is that it was already going to be a longer than normal election campaign.
As a coalitionista, I have to say that the Lib Dems don't deserve the thrashing they're going to get. From my point of view, they've acted responsibly in the coalition, and the country is better off for it.
(Yes, there have been problems, but remember how many people on here and elsewhere in 2010 were expecting the coalition to fall apart within a few months?).
(Dons his flameproof pyjamas as he hops off to bed)
I wonder in 20-30 years time how history will look back on the likes of Clegg and Danny Alexander?
Labour absolutely have to keep it tight. If they are seen to be losing then it will be much much harder for them to win back their defectors to UKIP & the Greens.
As a coalitionista, I have to say that the Lib Dems don't deserve the thrashing they're going to get. From my point of view, they've acted responsibly in the coalition, and the country is better off for it.
(Yes, there have been problems, but remember how many people on here and elsewhere in 2010 were expecting the coalition to fall apart within a few months?).
(Dons his flameproof pyjamas as he hops off to bed)
I wonder in 20-30 years time how history will look back on the likes of Clegg and Danny Alexander?
People will look back on the Cleggasm as some sort of temporary collective derangement and wonder how it might have happened.
We cant even say panic is going to set in, because despite the polls there has been a mindset of defeat for Labour for the last six months. Dan Hodges was right. He called it out. You cant fatten the pig on market day. Labour in opposition havent done the donkey work, the graft, they've relied on sitting back and watching the government make unpopular decisions.
It's come back to haunt them.
The odd thing is that the only time EdM has been courageous was when he challenged his brother.
Then having become Labour leader through his brother's cowardice and complacency he has spent four years imitating than cowardice and complacency.
Just as DM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become Labour leader automatically, EdM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become prime minister automatically.
If Miliband loses I think the biggest issue will be his lack of strategic thinking. If I was a party leader I would spend my first year setting down what my key election themes were going to be and then oppose the government in such a way as to fit with my themes. Miliband's thinking seems to be merely short term and he lets himself get pushed around e.g.
-Going on an anti cuts march and then saying he couldn't guarantee to reverse the cuts - Posing for the Sun and then apologising the next day - Forgetting the deficit and then being forced to mention it in another speech - Not being able to defend the mansion tax against Myleene Klass - The energy price freeze that became a price cap
Going big on the NHS has not worked (Jan bed crisis is over, and Morecambe bay was on Labours watch), Cost of living Crisis has warped into deflation, and attacks on tax dodging and pensions seem to have not had much impact (perhaps WVM likes being paid in cash!).
But one swallow does not make a summer. Ashcroft is out tommorow, and the LD marginals will be the most interesting.
As a side note: AudreyAnne may be tipster of the season. Polls only moving in late Feb and Con looking like picking up a number of LD seats. She may be able to buy cousin Seth a few acorns.
After all its not going to change the supermarkets multiple buy offers.
It might if the duty cut only applied to on-sales as opposed to off license sales.
This would be a big help to pubs, where beer sales are down nearly 50% over a decade. British pub culture is dying.
I was joking. It wont make any real difference to voting intentions. And given all the stories in the news at the moment, telling us Osborne is going to knock a 1-2p off a pint is comical as the major news.
If it is just for on-sales 20p per pint is quite viable.
Good for white van man (err...unless he is driving!)
Any good feeling from that is probably offset by the fact fuel has crept back up again.
It hasn't 'crept' here - 2 weeks ago it was $1.69 a gallon, last week $2.13, now $2.23.
A Georgia woman was scheduled to die by lethal injection last Wednesday, but the execution was delayed due to the weather (we had snow), She was then scheduled to be executed at 7pm last night, but this too was postponed, as the pentobarbital was 'cloudy'.
Two postponements in 5 days sounds like cruel and unusual punishment.
We cant even say panic is going to set in, because despite the polls there has been a mindset of defeat for Labour for the last six months. Dan Hodges was right. He called it out. You cant fatten the pig on market day. Labour in opposition havent done the donkey work, the graft, they've relied on sitting back and watching the government make unpopular decisions.
It's come back to haunt them.
The odd thing is that the only time EdM has been courageous was when he challenged his brother.
Then having become Labour leader through his brother's cowardice and complacency he has spent four years imitating than cowardice and complacency.
Just as DM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become Labour leader automatically, EdM thought all he had to do was wait and he would become prime minister automatically.
If Miliband loses I think the biggest issue will be his lack of strategic thinking. If I was a party leader I would spend my first year setting down what my key election themes were going to be and then oppose the government in such a way as to fit with my themes. Miliband's thinking seems to be merely short term and he lets himself get pushed around e.g.
-Going on an anti cuts march and then saying he couldn't guarantee to reverse the cuts - Posing for the Sun and then apologising the next day - Forgetting the deficit and then being forced to mention it in another speech - Not being able to defend the mansion tax against Myleene Klass - The energy price freeze that became a price cap
Going big on the NHS has not worked (Jan bed crisis is over, and Morecambe bay was on Labours watch), Cost of living Crisis has warped into deflation, and attacks on tax dodging and pensions seem to have not had much impact (perhaps WVM likes being paid in cash!).
But one swallow does not make a summer. Ashcroft is out tommorow, and the LD marginals will be the most interesting.
As a side note: AudreyAnne may be tipster of the season. Polls only moving in late Feb and Con looking like picking up a number of LD seats. She may be able to buy cousin Seth a few acorns.
I am not sure what other angles Labour have left to go on...I think we will be hearing NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS and Cost of Living still a crisis...but so far that blank sheet of paper appears to be still basically blank. The uni announcement was a disaster, if that is the sign of policies to come it doesn't really bode well.
After all its not going to change the supermarkets multiple buy offers.
It might if the duty cut only applied to on-sales as opposed to off license sales.
This would be a big help to pubs, where beer sales are down nearly 50% over a decade. British pub culture is dying.
I was joking. It wont make any real difference to voting intentions. And given all the stories in the news at the moment, telling us Osborne is going to knock a 1-2p off a pint is comical as the major news.
It may shore up the pub landlords vote? (not the Al Murray one)
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
Only UKIP hurts the Tories?
The evidence that Cameron didn't know what he was doing in ignoring or being rude to and about those that have gone off to UKIP is looking somewhat thin this evening.
UKIP is undoubtedly picking up many of the disenchanted but can they get them to actually vote? I suspect a significant % of their support have not bothered in the past because none of the mainstream parties were really talking to them or their concerns.
According to the BES UKIP supporters are mostly voters. The Greens tend to have brought in more non-voters.
"UKIP is picking up support from those who distrust politicians, but crucially, this support is significantly higher among those distrusting of MPs and who tend to vote in general elections. The lesson we can take away from the BES internet panel is therefore that UKIP’s support is coming from those people who are politically engaged but disillusioned, much more than from those people who are politically disengaged and disillusioned. There is also some evidence that UKIP is making small inroads among the disillusioned and engaged, but not the disillusioned and disengaged. "
After all its not going to change the supermarkets multiple buy offers.
It might if the duty cut only applied to on-sales as opposed to off license sales.
This would be a big help to pubs, where beer sales are down nearly 50% over a decade. British pub culture is dying.
I was joking. It wont make any real difference to voting intentions. And given all the stories in the news at the moment, telling us Osborne is going to knock a 1-2p off a pint is comical as the major news.
If it is just for on-sales 20p per pint is quite viable.
Good for white van man (err...unless he is driving!)
Any good feeling from that is probably offset by the fact fuel has crept back up again.
It hasn't 'crept' here - 2 weeks ago it was $1.69 a gallon, last week $2.13, now $2.23.
As a coalitionista, I have to say that the Lib Dems don't deserve the thrashing they're going to get. From my point of view, they've acted responsibly in the coalition, and the country is better off for it.
(Yes, there have been problems, but remember how many people on here and elsewhere in 2010 were expecting the coalition to fall apart within a few months?).
(Dons his flameproof pyjamas as he hops off to bed)
I wonder in 20-30 years time how history will look back on the likes of Clegg and Danny Alexander?
People will look back on the Cleggasm as some sort of temporary collective derangement and wonder how it might have happened.
I suspect there was a fair amount of overlap between the Cleggasm and the Brandgasm. Real enough but amongst many people who weren't going to vote. It's an interesting thing to remember though that the pollsters got the result of the last election wrong, particularly in terms of vote share.
As a coalitionista, I have to say that the Lib Dems don't deserve the thrashing they're going to get. From my point of view, they've acted responsibly in the coalition, and the country is better off for it.
(Yes, there have been problems, but remember how many people on here and elsewhere in 2010 were expecting the coalition to fall apart within a few months?).
(Dons his flameproof pyjamas as he hops off to bed)
I wonder in 20-30 years time how history will look back on the likes of Clegg and Danny Alexander?
No one will remember they ever existed, except historians and some of the old PB'rs who will be alive to tell the tale before the lights went out on Liberalism (perhaps Billy Joel will make a song about it): "I've seen the lights go out of the Liberal Democrats"
It's been said a couple of times that (including by me) that 2015 might not be a bad election to lose for various reasons.
Lots of people usually reply to such posts as being nonsense as it's impossible to predict the future etc.etc.
However, I am convinced that 2015 will be a good election to lose, but only for Labour. In fact, I would go as far to say as Labour forming the next government might even create an existential crisis for them.
Reason 1) Public spending will have to be kept on a leash (I'm not going to use the word austerity, because it doesn't apply to the UK - look at Greece or Portugal or even Ireland if you want to see austerity). As soon as Labour ceases to become the main opposition in the northern WWC areas and they have to more or less follow the tories spending figures, then they are going to lose huge amounts of their core support. If UKIP plays it's cards correctly, it could do to Labour in the midlands and the North, what the SNP has done to Labour in Scotland.
Reason 2) Ed M isn't going to get anymore popular if he becomes PM. He will merely become less popular than he is already with Labour supporters.
Reason 3) There is bad feeling brewing in the Labour party. Usually parties in opposition before an election have an appearance of being united even if they are not. In this case there are fault lines there for all to see. Clearly Ed B is a problem for Ed M and if he gets it wrong after getting the keys to No 10, you could easily envisage another feud along the lines of Blair / Brown.
The tories don't have the same issues.
If they form the next government, then
1) everyone expects them not to spend more than the minimum 2) DC is reasonable popular within and outside the party - it might not continue but he is not starting from an appallingly low base. 3) Tories do have splits on Europe - a referendum might go some way to sorting that. There may be defections but as long as the number of defections is managed, it might not be so bad. Having no referendum is likely to hurt the tories more, as it will lead to the rightwing eurosceptics getting more and more restless.
Little wonder that Farage is secretly rooting for Labour as the upside to UKIP in a Labour government is massive.
Q: Why would Voting Intention move now? What has happened in the last week?
OK, we are getting nearer the crunch but I'm doubtful enough has happened to cause a move as big as indicated so far by this week's polls.
Just imho, this is a latent move that's been suppressed by the various NHS and tax avoidance stories. The Tories have got through a week without much against them.
There is a very close correlation between the upswing in English economic performance and the introduction of coffee to London.
Stick a bunch of bright, ambitious people in a small place, withdraw depressants and replace with a stimulant...
Beer was a public health victory, surely? Cutting down on infections from poor quality water...
in my former town up North in Japan they had a cucumber festival at the local shrine- for similar reasons. Eating cucumbers let you get hydrated without dying of cholera or whatever.
I was goign to say beer sounds like more fun, but i wonder what small beer tasted like. possibly less attractive than a half of mild...
It's been said a couple of times that (including by me) that 2015 might not be a bad election to lose for various reasons.
Lots of people usually reply to such posts as being nonsense as it's impossible to predict the future etc.etc.
However, I am convinced that 2015 will be a good election to lose, but only for Labour. In fact, I would go as far to say as Labour forming the next government might even create an existential crisis for them.
Reason 1) Public spending will have to be kept on a leash (I'm not going to use the word austerity, because it doesn't apply to the UK - look at Greece or Portugal or even Ireland if you want to see austerity). As soon as Labour ceases to become the main opposition in the northern WWC areas and they have to more or less follow the tories spending figures, then they are going to lose huge amounts of their core support. If UKIP plays it's cards correctly, it could do to Labour in the midlands and the North, what the SNP has done to Labour in Scotland.
Reason 2) Ed M isn't going to get anymore popular if he becomes PM. He will merely become less popular than he is already with Labour supporters.
Reason 3) There is bad feeling brewing in the Labour party. Usually parties in opposition before an election have an appearance of being united even if they are not. In this case there are fault lines there for all to see. Clearly Ed B is a problem for Ed M and if he gets it wrong after getting the keys to No 10, you could easily envisage another feud along the lines of Blair / Brown.
The tories don't have the same issues.
If they form the next government, then
1) everyone expects them not to spend more than the minimum 2) DC is reasonable popular within and outside the party - it might not continue but he is not starting from an appallingly low base. 3) Tories do have splits on Europe - a referendum might go some way to sorting that. There may be defections but as long as the number of defections is managed, it might not be so bad. Having no referendum is likely to hurt the tories more, as it will lead to the rightwing eurosceptics getting more and more restless.
Little wonder that Farage is secretly rooting for Labour as the upside to UKIP in a Labour government is massive.
On the other hand, this could be 1983, with a lot of the pain having been got out of the way. And the PLP are about to shift leftwards, courtesy of Len - as they effectively did in the 1980s when the SDP was formed.
It's a very dangerous election for Labour to lose and it's a very dangerous election for Labour to win. That's what happens when you pick a bad leader.
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
UKIP only hurts the Tories?
The clue here is LD down 18%, Labour up 5%, Greens up 5%, so there is 8% missing probably to the Tories but that is an oversimplification.
SNP taking some off Labour so that would mean more going to Labour to balance out. So say 5 missing? Then again some Labour will have gone to greens so maybe that counteract that .. er doesn't it? Any road up... It seems to me the LDs are a bit lower than they should be for the policies they represent, but not hugely so. Their vote above that has been built on protest, not for actually doing anything in government. They have been very poor in enunciating the issues of actually being in government and the people who had voted for them are not interested in that anyway. Those people only want to complain and protest.
Tories have a tricky task. Harness the proto-UKIP vote and the anti UKIP vote. Will being plain vanilla Conservative win out?
@antifrank With the Libdems, I wouldn't be putting the house on the swing being uniform?
At 5% or less, UNS starts to apply and the LD's can't escape the electoral black hole.
No, they UNDER perform UNS.
The premise that the LD's will do about 10 seats better than UNS that the polls suggest due to incumbency and tactical voting is around for 4.5 years now, but at 5% Baxter says 3 seats and UNS says 11 seats.
So clearly the LD's at 5% are at the event horizon, where the physical laws of LD local outperformance no longer apply.
If you are suggesting the LDs are relying on Quantum Tunnelling then they do have a problem.
A Georgia woman was scheduled to die by lethal injection last Wednesday, but the execution was delayed due to the weather (we had snow), She was then scheduled to be executed at 7pm last night, but this too was postponed, as the pentobarbital was 'cloudy'.
Two postponements in 5 days sounds like cruel and unusual punishment.
A Georgia woman was scheduled to die by lethal injection last Wednesday, but the execution was delayed due to the weather (we had snow), She was then scheduled to be executed at 7pm last night, but this too was postponed, as the pentobarbital was 'cloudy'.
Two postponements in 5 days sounds like cruel and unusual punishment.
It's been said a couple of times that (including by me) that 2015 might not be a bad election to lose for various reasons.
Lots of people usually reply to such posts as being nonsense as it's impossible to predict the future etc.etc.
However, I am convinced that 2015 will be a good election to lose, but only for Labour. In fact, I would go as far to say as Labour forming the next government might even create an existential crisis for them.
Reason 1) Public spending will have to be kept on a leash (I'm not going to use the word austerity, because it doesn't apply to the UK - look at Greece or Portugal or even Ireland if you want to see austerity). As soon as Labour ceases to become the main opposition in the northern WWC areas and they have to more or less follow the tories spending figures, then they are going to lose huge amounts of their core support. If UKIP plays it's cards correctly, it could do to Labour in the midlands and the North, what the SNP has done to Labour in Scotland.
Reason 2) Ed M isn't going to get anymore popular if he becomes PM. He will merely become less popular than he is already with Labour supporters.
Reason 3) There is bad feeling brewing in the Labour party. Usually parties in opposition before an election have an appearance of being united even if they are not. In this case there are fault lines there for all to see. Clearly Ed B is a problem for Ed M and if he gets it wrong after getting the keys to No 10, you could easily envisage another feud along the lines of Blair / Brown.
The tories don't have the same issues.
If they form the next government, then
1) everyone expects them not to spend more than the minimum 2) DC is reasonable popular within and outside the party - it might not continue but he is not starting from an appallingly low base. 3) Tories do have splits on Europe - a referendum might go some way to sorting that. There may be defections but as long as the number of defections is managed, it might not be so bad. Having no referendum is likely to hurt the tories more, as it will lead to the rightwing eurosceptics getting more and more restless.
Little wonder that Farage is secretly rooting for Labour as the upside to UKIP in a Labour government is massive.
On the other hand, this could be 1983, with a lot of the pain having been got out of the way. And the PLP are about to shift leftwards, courtesy of Len - as they effectively did in the 1980s when the SDP was formed.
It's a very dangerous election for Labour to lose and it's a very dangerous election for Labour to win. That's what happens when you pick a bad leader.
Very fair points well made.
Perhaps 1997/2001 was 'Peak Labour' and it's downhill all the way thereafter.
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
UKIP only hurts the Tories?
The clue here is LD down 18%, Labour up 5%, Greens up 5%, so there is 8% missing probably to the Tories but that is an oversimplification.
SNP taking some off Labour so that would mean more going to Labour to balance out. So say 5 missing? Then again some Labour will have gone to greens so maybe that counteract that .. er doesn't it? Any road up... It seems to me the LDs are a bit lower than they should be for the policies they represent, but not hugely so. Their vote above that has been built on protest, not for actually doing anything in government. They have been very poor in enunciating the issues of actually being in government and the people who had voted for them are not interested in that anyway. Those people only want to complain and protest.
Tories have a tricky task. Harness the proto-UKIP vote and the anti UKIP vote. Will being plain vanilla Conservative win out?
That's why I said it's an oversimplification. Anyway for another oversimplification: if you are a liberal you vote Tory, if you are a lefty you vote Labour, and if you are a conservative you vote UKIP. So why vote for the LD's?
Q: Why would Voting Intention move now? What has happened in the last week?
OK, we are getting nearer the crunch but I'm doubtful enough has happened to cause a move as big as indicated so far by this week's polls.
Labour aren't making the case to "kick the bums out". They have dicked about for nearly five years without crafting policies. They expected a world of pain for the Coalition from hugely unpopular cuts. People have barely noticed them. They expected unemployment- especially youth unemployment - to be at toxic levels. We are at close to full employment, even with immigration not closed down. Labour has called everything wrong since 2010. Not just to the public, but far worse - to themselves. Basically, Ed's advisors expected a stroll. Bedroom tax. NHS. Evil bastard Tory tax evading bankers. Job done. Hello again Downing Street.
People have rumbled lazy Labour. Why would you take the risk?
As a general rule of thumb, the older voters tend not to switch much, while the younger ones are more amenable. I have a sort of theory that this accounts for the "swingback effect". As the election approaches, the decision moves down the age groups, until we get to teens making their minds up, or deciding not to bother.
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
UKIP only hurts the Tories?
The clue here is LD down 18%, Labour up 5%, Greens up 5%, so there is 8% missing probably to the Tories but that is an oversimplification.
SNP taking some off Labour so that would mean more going to Labour to balance out. So say 5 missing? Then again some Labour will have gone to greens so maybe that counteract that .. er doesn't it? Any road up... It seems to me the LDs are a bit lower than they should be for the policies they represent, but not hugely so. Their vote above that has been built on protest, not for actually doing anything in government. They have been very poor in enunciating the issues of actually being in government and the people who had voted for them are not interested in that anyway. Those people only want to complain and protest.
Tories have a tricky task. Harness the proto-UKIP vote and the anti UKIP vote. Will being plain vanilla Conservative win out?
That's why I said it's an oversimplification. Anyway for another oversimplification: if you are a liberal you vote Tory, if you are a lefty you vote Labour, and if you are a conservative you vote UKIP. So why vote for the LD's?
They used to be lefty liberals when the alcoholic was running the show.
Clegg, along with being in government and by association, reality, has robbed them of that brand differential.
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
UKIP only hurts the Tories?
The clue here is LD down 18%, Labour up 5%, Greens up 5%, so there is 8% missing probably to the Tories but that is an oversimplification.
SNP taking some off Labour so that would mean more going to Labour to balance out. So say 5 missing? Then again some Labour will have gone to greens so maybe that counteract that .. er doesn't it? Any road up... It seems to me the LDs are a bit lower than they should be for the policies they represent, but not hugely so. Their vote above that has been built on protest, not for actually doing anything in government. They have been very poor in enunciating the issues of actually being in government and the people who had voted for them are not interested in that anyway. Those people only want to complain and protest.
Tories have a tricky task. Harness the proto-UKIP vote and the anti UKIP vote. Will being plain vanilla Conservative win out?
That's why I said it's an oversimplification. Anyway for another oversimplification: if you are a liberal you vote Tory, if you are a lefty you vote Labour, and if you are a conservative you vote UKIP. So why vote for the LD's?
Vote LD because you like the coalition and coalition politics, rather than either Tory or Labour headbangers running the country.
The most astonishing thing about that YouGov poll (and other pollsters have a similar thing)
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
UKIP only hurts the Tories?
The clue here is LD down 18%, Labour up 5%, Greens up 5%, so there is 8% missing probably to the Tories but that is an oversimplification.
Tories have a tricky task. Harness the proto-UKIP vote and the anti UKIP vote. Will being plain vanilla Conservative win out?
That's why I said it's an oversimplification. Anyway for another oversimplification: if you are a liberal you vote Tory, if you are a lefty you vote Labour, and if you are a conservative you vote UKIP. So why vote for the LD's?
Vote LD because you like the coalition and coalition politics, rather than either Tory or Labour headbangers running the country.
Everyone knows that the coalition is dominated by Tories. The obvious thing to do if you like the coalition is to vote Tory.
As a coalitionista, I have to say that the Lib Dems don't deserve the thrashing they're going to get. From my point of view, they've acted responsibly in the coalition, and the country is better off for it.
(Yes, there have been problems, but remember how many people on here and elsewhere in 2010 were expecting the coalition to fall apart within a few months?).
(Dons his flameproof pyjamas as he hops off to bed)
I wonder in 20-30 years time how history will look back on the likes of Clegg and Danny Alexander?
There will have to actually be an extant Liberal Democrat party for anyone to consider such a question.
A Georgia woman was scheduled to die by lethal injection last Wednesday, but the execution was delayed due to the weather (we had snow), She was then scheduled to be executed at 7pm last night, but this too was postponed, as the pentobarbital was 'cloudy'.
Two postponements in 5 days sounds like cruel and unusual punishment.
I doubt the Almighty has time to make Pentobarbital cloudy - he's probably spending all his time on Obama and Netanyahu.
They will find a way to get it done.
They need to be careful with cloudy phenobarbital. It might have killed her.
It's pentobarbital - and on the face of it seems odd that they should be concerned, except that there was a recent botched execution.
But remember, in the days when the UK had capital punishment, the condemned was given a medical to determine whether he or she was well enough to be hanged.
I couldn't get my head round Davey attacking the Labour tuition fee proposals. Not because he wasn't making sense, he was. But the Lib Dems campaigned against the things - they could have taken the "We're sorry it was neccesary but .... fund HE blah blah sadly not possible to go back now."
He didn't, he called the plans "stupid".
The Lib Dems have gone native in the eyes of the left imo.
It's been said a couple of times that (including by me) that 2015 might not be a bad election to lose for various reasons.
Lots of people usually reply to such posts as being nonsense as it's impossible to predict the future etc.etc.
However, I am convinced that 2015 will be a good election to lose, but only for Labour. In fact, I would go as far to say as Labour forming the next government might even create an existential crisis for them.
The tories don't have the same issues.
If they form the next government, then
1) everyone expects them not to spend more than the minimum 2) DC is reasonable popular within and outside the party - it might not continue but he is not starting from an appallingly low base. 3) Tories do have splits on Europe - a referendum might go some way to sorting that. There may be defections but as long as the number of defections is managed, it might not be so bad. Having no referendum is likely to hurt the tories more, as it will lead to the rightwing eurosceptics getting more and more restless.
Little wonder that Farage is secretly rooting for Labour as the upside to UKIP in a Labour government is massive.
On the other hand, this could be 1983, with a lot of the pain having been got out of the way. And the PLP are about to shift leftwards, courtesy of Len - as they effectively did in the 1980s when the SDP was formed.
It's a very dangerous election for Labour to lose and it's a very dangerous election for Labour to win. That's what happens when you pick a bad leader.
Very fair points well made.
Perhaps 1997/2001 was 'Peak Labour' and it's downhill all the way thereafter.
@antifrank With the Libdems, I wouldn't be putting the house on the swing being uniform?
At 5% or less, UNS starts to apply and the LD's can't escape the electoral black hole.
No, they UNDER perform UNS.
The premise that the LD's will do about 10 seats better than UNS that the polls suggest due to incumbency and tactical voting is around for 4.5 years now, but at 5% Baxter says 3 seats and UNS says 11 seats.
So clearly the LD's at 5% are at the event horizon, where the physical laws of LD local outperformance no longer apply.
If you are suggesting the LDs are relying on Quantum Tunnelling then they do have a problem.
They are more relying on Quantum Leap for someone to possess Nick Clegg's body in early May 2010 and prevent him from entering a coalition with the Tories.
It's been said a couple of times that (including by me) that 2015 might not be a bad election to lose for various reasons.
Lots of people usually reply to such posts as being nonsense as it's impossible to predict the future etc.etc.
However, I am convinced that 2015 will be a good election to lose, but only for Labour. In fact, I would go as far to say as Labour forming the next government might even create an existential crisis for them.
The tories don't have the same issues.
If they form the next government, then
1) everyone expects them not to spend more than the minimum 2) DC is reasonable popular within and outside the party - it might not continue but he is not starting from an appallingly low base. 3) Tories do have splits on Europe - a referendum might go some way to sorting that. There may be defections but as long as the number of defections is managed, it might not be so bad. Having no referendum is likely to hurt the tories more, as it will lead to the rightwing eurosceptics getting more and more restless.
Little wonder that Farage is secretly rooting for Labour as the upside to UKIP in a Labour government is massive.
On the other hand, this could be 1983, with a lot of the pain having been got out of the way. And the PLP are about to shift leftwards, courtesy of Len - as they effectively did in the 1980s when the SDP was formed.
It's a very dangerous election for Labour to lose and it's a very dangerous election for Labour to win. That's what happens when you pick a bad leader.
Very fair points well made.
Perhaps 1997/2001 was 'Peak Labour' and it's downhill all the way thereafter.
In the same way that 1992 was 'Peak Tory'?
Not sure - they must have got more votes and share in 2010 than they did in 2001 ?
Comments
Changes since the last election.
Tories down 1%, UKIP up 11%
UKIP only hurts the Tories?
1) The weather. Despite what you say above, it would be a problem at times - it is for conventional diesel-electric trains at the moment.
2) The tunnels. Whilst tunnels can be altered to allow the greater headroom required for electrification (usually by high-slung catenary and lowering the tunnel floor), it is an expensive and disruptive process. A new-build tunnel would not have the problem.
3) The biggie. I cannot see putting catenary between the holiday resort of Dawlish and the sea being very popular.
None of these are necessarily showstoppers, but they are problematic.
In addition, it's unlikely that the Okehampton line would ever be able to be electrified due to the proximity to the park, and you also have to factor for *expected* (although not certain) closures of the coastal route due to rising sea levels.
I'll bow to your superior knowledge of the potential train paths on the Okehampton route, but would argue against the bareboned approach. Too often infrastructure projects are bareboned, only for expensive alterations to be required a few years later. The ECML knitting is an example, as is the Scottish Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine line, which is having to be rebuilt just five years after being reopened. It's a mistake I fear they're making with the Borders line as well, although I wish it well.
Short term savings all too often lead to long term expenses - a quote which seems rather applicable to the modern political environment!
However, for fun, compared with the Feb Poll of Polls it would imply:
1) a movement of LD to LAB
2) a movement from Lab to UKIP (UKIP takes 20% of former Lab vote, up from 12%)
3) a movement from UKIP to Con (UKIP takes only 5% of former Con vote, down from 10%)
Seats:
Con 310
Lab 256
LD 11
SNP 49
UKIP 2
Grn 1
Broxtowe Lab majority 3%
After all its not going to change the supermarkets multiple buy offers.
So clearly the LD's at 5% are at the event horizon, where the physical laws of LD local outperformance no longer apply.
32
33
32
32
33
33
35
33
33
34
35
36
That does suggest Con rating has definitely moved up - even if last three are randomly high - at a minimum they have surely moved from 32.5 to 33; with decent chance they are now 33.5 (with YouGov methodology).
UKIP is undoubtedly picking up many of the disenchanted but can they get them to actually vote? I suspect a significant % of their support have not bothered in the past because none of the mainstream parties were really talking to them or their concerns.
"He killed the Liberal Democrats.
Er....that's it."
This would be a big help to pubs, where beer sales are down nearly 50% over a decade. British pub culture is dying.
1 tied poll with YG
Lab 1% ahead with Optimum
Somerton and Frome is as close to buying Lib Dem money as you'll get, second choice incumbent, tiny majority etc 4-11 is big.
The same could be said about the Libdem switchers, and even at the polling booth many will pause before putting the cross?
Crossover continues....
Two postponements in 5 days sounds like cruel and unusual punishment.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/georgia-executions-kelly-gissendaner-brian-terrell-hold-n316471
-Going on an anti cuts march and then saying he couldn't guarantee to reverse the cuts
- Posing for the Sun and then apologising the next day
- Forgetting the deficit and then being forced to mention it in another speech
- Not being able to defend the mansion tax against Myleene Klass
- The energy price freeze that became a price cap
Good for white van man (err...unless he is driving!)
(Yes, there have been problems, but remember how many people on here and elsewhere in 2010 were expecting the coalition to fall apart within a few months?).
(Dons his flameproof pyjamas as he hops off to bed)
Will some of them go home? I certainly hope so.
Even better would be knock 20p off the price of a pub pint.
The money to be recouped with a 20p duty on the price of a cup of coffee in Starbucks etc.
It was beer which made Britain great not frothy coffee:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=hogarth+beer+street&rlz=1C1KMZB_enGB576GB576&es_sm=93&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=vzz2VPvkLoXDOYbpgJAL&ved=0CCEQsAQ&biw=1360&bih=653#imgdii=_&imgrc=9AzmPD9WG343GM%3A;1YQNwihf-gkLEM;http%3A%2F%2Fwww.shakespeares-sonnets.com%2FArchive%2FImages%2FBeerSt1.jpg;http%3A%2F%2Fwww.shakespeares-sonnets.com%2FArchive%2FBeerSt1.htm;1200;1412
Those two are from last week (field-work ended Friday in the case of the YG tie, and Thursday in the case of Opinium)
On the bright side, if the polls are really starting to move, the phony war is over, and the main event is starting.
The bad news is that it was already going to be a longer than normal election campaign.
"Will the last LD in Britain please turn out the lights"
At this rate the LD will be down to a single MP when the music stops in May, but who could that MP be?
On the Feb Poll of Polls, it is a LibDem majority of 200.
But one swallow does not make a summer. Ashcroft is out tommorow, and the LD marginals will be the most interesting.
As a side note: AudreyAnne may be tipster of the season. Polls only moving in late Feb and Con looking like picking up a number of LD seats. She may be able to buy cousin Seth a few acorns.
Don't shout at me when it appears because it's not on AV.
I must have misread the story, I am sure it continued until 2013.
I must read it again.
Calling Elvis, your services are required.
There is a very close correlation between the upswing in English economic performance and the introduction of coffee to London.
Stick a bunch of bright, ambitious people in a small place, withdraw depressants and replace with a stimulant...
"UKIP is picking up support from those who distrust politicians, but crucially, this support is significantly higher among those distrusting of MPs and who tend to vote in general elections. The lesson we can take away from the BES internet panel is therefore that UKIP’s support is coming from those people who are politically engaged but disillusioned, much more than from those people who are politically disengaged and disillusioned. There is also some evidence that UKIP is making small inroads among the disillusioned and engaged, but not the disillusioned and disengaged. "
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/is-nigel-farage-the-heineken-politician-is-ukip-reaching-the-parts-of-the-electorate-other-parties-cannot-reach/
CON—280 (33.3%)
LAB—263 (33.3%)
Admittedly they are probably giving the SNP 15 too many.
OK, we are getting nearer the crunch but I'm doubtful enough has happened to cause a move as big as indicated so far by this week's polls.
"I've seen the lights go out of the Liberal Democrats"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA8IwfPUTqg
Beer, tea and rum were what built an empire and revolutionised industry.
http://www.morecambebayinquiry.co.uk/
Note the downturn in deathrate from 2011 onwards.
(Am I correct in thinking that this hospital covers Farrons constituency?)
It's been said a couple of times that (including by me) that 2015 might not be a bad election to lose for various reasons.
Lots of people usually reply to such posts as being nonsense as it's impossible to predict the future etc.etc.
However, I am convinced that 2015 will be a good election to lose, but only for Labour. In fact, I would go as far to say as Labour forming the next government might even create an existential crisis for them.
Reason 1) Public spending will have to be kept on a leash (I'm not going to use the word austerity, because it doesn't apply to the UK - look at Greece or Portugal or even Ireland if you want to see austerity). As soon as Labour ceases to become the main opposition in the northern WWC areas and they have to more or less follow the tories spending figures, then they are going to lose huge amounts of their core support. If UKIP plays it's cards correctly, it could do to Labour in the midlands and the North, what the SNP has done to Labour in Scotland.
Reason 2) Ed M isn't going to get anymore popular if he becomes PM. He will merely become less popular than he is already with Labour supporters.
Reason 3) There is bad feeling brewing in the Labour party. Usually parties in opposition before an election have an appearance of being united even if they are not. In this case there are fault lines there for all to see. Clearly Ed B is a problem for Ed M and if he gets it wrong after getting the keys to No 10, you could easily envisage another feud along the lines of Blair / Brown.
The tories don't have the same issues.
If they form the next government, then
1) everyone expects them not to spend more than the minimum
2) DC is reasonable popular within and outside the party - it might not continue but he is not starting from an appallingly low base.
3) Tories do have splits on Europe - a referendum might go some way to sorting that. There may be defections but as long as the number of defections is managed, it might not be so bad. Having no referendum is likely to hurt the tories more, as it will lead to the rightwing eurosceptics getting more and more restless.
Little wonder that Farage is secretly rooting for Labour as the upside to UKIP in a Labour government is massive.
So, 4 point Labour lead tomorrow then...
in my former town up North in Japan they had a cucumber festival at the local shrine- for similar reasons. Eating cucumbers let you get hydrated without dying of cholera or whatever.
I was goign to say beer sounds like more fun, but i wonder what small beer tasted like. possibly less attractive than a half of mild...
It's a very dangerous election for Labour to lose and it's a very dangerous election for Labour to win. That's what happens when you pick a bad leader.
Any road up... It seems to me the LDs are a bit lower than they should be for the policies they represent, but not hugely so.
Their vote above that has been built on protest, not for actually doing anything in government. They have been very poor in enunciating the issues of actually being in government and the people who had voted for them are not interested in that anyway. Those people only want to complain and protest.
Tories have a tricky task. Harness the proto-UKIP vote and the anti UKIP vote. Will being plain vanilla Conservative win out?
They will find a way to get it done.
Perhaps 1997/2001 was 'Peak Labour' and it's downhill all the way thereafter.
Anyway for another oversimplification: if you are a liberal you vote Tory, if you are a lefty you vote Labour, and if you are a conservative you vote UKIP.
So why vote for the LD's?
People have rumbled lazy Labour. Why would you take the risk?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
I have a sort of theory that this accounts for the "swingback effect".
As the election approaches, the decision moves down the age groups, until we get to teens making their minds up, or deciding not to bother.
Clegg, along with being in government and by association, reality, has robbed them of that brand differential.
But remember, in the days when the UK had capital punishment, the condemned was given a medical to determine whether he or she was well enough to be hanged.
He didn't, he called the plans "stupid".
The Lib Dems have gone native in the eyes of the left imo.