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  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    TGOHF said:

    Once just once A Labour type will post that Ed will be PM because he is the best leader with the best policy and the polls are irrelevant. Won't they ?

    Probably not many Labour but loads of their kipper buddies will. How they yearn for Ed (look, he's not THAT crap) as PM and no tiresome referendum.
    I have noticed over at the Times comment section that Ed's biggest defenders are Kippers.
    Who needs to pay for the Dirty Digger when the Bedford One's Mighty Organ can tell us for free?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh Sweet Jesus lets just put it out here:

    Is shagging around really the worst crime in the world and is it such a massive skeleton ?!

    I think you can get away with it while in high office, but not if still merely running for high office for some reason.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh Sweet Jesus lets just put it out here:

    Is shagging around really the worst crime in the world and is it such a massive skeleton ?!

    I thought that was his missus.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    the whole westminster establishment is in meltdown,con lab and lib, a plague on all their houses. the public are rejecting the political classes, because they have been tested and found wanting. UKIP is just filling a political vacuum. Maybe we get the leaders we deserve
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    TGOHF said:

    Once just once A Labour type will post that Ed will be PM because he is the best leader with the best policy and the polls are irrelevant. Won't they ?

    Probably not many Labour but loads of their kipper buddies will. How they yearn for Ed (look, he's not THAT crap) as PM and no tiresome referendum.
    I have noticed over at the Times comment section that Ed's biggest defenders are Kippers.
    Who needs to pay for the Dirty Digger when the Bedford One's Mighty Organ can tell us for free?
    Indeed.

    You're all lucky to read me for free.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed
  • Adam Boulton in the Sunday Times sums it up

    Ed is teetering on the edge, with no one behind who can push

    If it's going to be anyone, it will be the Postie (who will likely be seen as a caretaker for a year or two maximum). I just don't see him wanting it. He'd rather be cosying up on the couch being polite to the likes of Portillo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TSE But according to the Survation poll both Johnson and Umunna do better than David M as well as Ed M
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Mr Flightpath for lying politicians please refer to GO/DC

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-723_en.htm
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    BenM said:

    The Tory Press is absolutely crapping itself. What an ugly spectacle.

    Those Bastards at the New statesman, Tory to the core.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Evening all,

    Have been out.

    Can someone sum up tonight's events in no more than 140 characters? :D

    Difficult, so I'd go to bed if I were you. (42 Characters)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Adam Boulton in the Sunday Times sums it up

    Ed is teetering on the edge, with no one behind who can push

    If it's going to be anyone, it will be the Postie (who will likely be seen as a caretaker for a year or two maximum). I just don't see him wanting it. He'd rather be cosying up on the couch being polite to the likes of Portillo.
    Did they poll for Hattie?

    After all, she has to agree to stand aside before anyone can be anointed leader.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    philiph said:

    Did they poll for Hattie?

    After all, she has to agree to stand aside before anyone can be anointed leader.

    Did they poll for Gordo?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited November 2014

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    TGOHF said:

    Once just once A Labour type will post that Ed will be PM because he is the best leader with the best policy and the polls are irrelevant. Won't they ?

    Probably not many Labour but loads of their kipper buddies will. How they yearn for Ed (look, he's not THAT crap) as PM and no tiresome referendum.
    I have noticed over at the Times comment section that Ed's biggest defenders are Kippers.
    Who needs to pay for the Dirty Digger when the Bedford One's Mighty Organ can tell us for free?
    Indeed.

    You're all lucky to read me for free.
    Wait, I shouldn't have been paying for this? I knew I was being ripped off.

    I'll get my coat.
    kjohnw said:

    Maybe we get the leaders we deserve

    Fact. They have developed down certain paths because that is what worked. If it didn't, they would have done whatever did work. Now it doesn't and they haven't had time to shift yet.

    Night all. EICIPM, even after all these unsourced rumblings of discontent.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited November 2014
    saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Without looking further down, so I maybe wrong, it looks like the only poll TSE has not posted,despite it being realeased nearly an hour ago.....mmmmm....strange that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Labour still being on course to win is not really news, compared to rumours of Labour infighting, given it is a longstanding thing whereas the Labour infighting has not been as openly discussed before. It remains the most important detail though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mr Miliband’s future as party leader could be raised at a meeting of the officers on the party’s ruling National Executive Committee this week. A key meeting of the NEC last week to plan for the year ahead was poorly attended.

    One NEC member said: “The place was in meltdown and a totally febrile atmosphere. There is a man is stuck in his job but no one wants it and everyone thinks he is useless. There is no resolution.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11218334/Conservatives-snatch-first-poll-lead-for-six-months-as-Ed-Milibands-woes-worsen.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    FU Lets hope its a bullseye!
  • Mildly interesting that the ICM Wisdom Poll has the LibDems on 13%, around double the level they are polling in VI polls and a mere 3% below UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014

    saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Without looking further down, so I maybe wrong, it looks like the only poll TSE has not posted,despite it being realeased nearly an hour ago.....mmmmm....strange that?
    Always wrong aren't you Compouter.

    I posted it down thread.

    In fact I think I was the first to do so.
  • No sign as yet of this supposed bad news story for Miliband in The Sunday Telegraph?
    It's almost 11:30 pm, the presses must be rolling by now.

    It was the Wisdom Poll they were talking about, Con ahead

    CON ahead in ICM wisdom/S Tel index where sample what would the vote share be NOT how they would vote.
    CON 31% LAB 30% LD 13% UKIP 16%
    Yebbut it's not a pukka poll is it?
  • 12 hours to go till the Tennis at the O2!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Without looking further down, so I maybe wrong, it looks like the only poll TSE has not posted,despite it being realeased nearly an hour ago.....mmmmm....strange that?
    Always wrong aren't you Compouter.

    I posted it down thread.
    That is why I stated "I maybe wrong"......not always wrong though.Did point our Labour were struggling in H&M.
  • Good evensong. Laughably awful polling for Ed Miliband, and the Conservatives. Perhaps the answer is for both parties to sacrifice their leaders and allow the press a clear run at the election.
    Adam Boulton for PM and Janan Ganesh as chancellor. Dib dib dib.
  • JohnO said:

    bigjohnowls doing a half decent impersonation of King Canute tonight.

    Thanks

    Tory PBers doing a good job of diverting attention from all tonights VI polls which are terrible for the Tories.

    It will not save them though.
    Level with Yougov terrible?

    Right.
    Sub-30% in two polls released on the same day?
  • Mildly interesting that the ICM Wisdom Poll has the LibDems on 13%, around double the level they are polling in VI polls and a mere 3% below UKIP.


    Some, less charitable, than me might suggest it be rebranded the ICM Ignorance Index.
  • No sign as yet of this supposed bad news story for Miliband in The Sunday Telegraph?
    It's almost 11:30 pm, the presses must be rolling by now.

    It was the Wisdom Poll they were talking about, Con ahead

    CON ahead in ICM wisdom/S Tel index where sample what would the vote share be NOT how they would vote.
    CON 31% LAB 30% LD 13% UKIP 16%
    Yebbut it's not a pukka poll is it?
    Martin Boon of ICM says it was the most accurate poll at the last General Election.

    But you are right not to stick it in your elbow.

    I don't put it it my main polling master spreadsheet
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821

    TGOHF said:

    Once just once A Labour type will post that Ed will be PM because he is the best leader with the best policy and the polls are irrelevant. Won't they ?

    Ed is Crap will be PM because he is the leader of the Lab party that has best/fairest policies for the difficult years ahead.

    The polls are onlyrelevant because every poll since i became a PB regular in June even those with small Tory leads show EICIPM.

    Thats as far as I could go TBF
    That 'best/fairest' is very telling. Why add fairest to best? If your fairness is not in conflict with best, it wouldn't need to be added.



  • HYUFD said:

    FU

    No need to be rude, HYUFD!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Oh so febrile. I know Ed is crap and all that but all those living in cloud cuckoo land who think that Alan Johnson is any better are losing the plot. Johnson is a 40 watt bulb.
  • HYUFD said:

    Well it looks like Labour should have picked Alan Johnson, but if Ed Miliband does not manage to sneak into No 10 through the back door they have a new Messiah in Chukka Umuna

    Indeed if you believe that polling Chukka wins easily, as not even the most cockeyed Conservative would forecast that deficit swinging back in around 180 days. But i would file all this stuff in the not going to happen draw.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    dr_spyn said:

    Simon Danczuk @SimonDanczuk · Nov 6
    Delighted to have @TristramHuntMP visit @RochdaleSFC today - he was very well received

    Well look who Hunt met on Thursday

    The non person Hunt visted the non person Danczuk somewhere in NW England.

    Plot thickens.

    I hope Danczuk defects if only so Mrs Danczuk leaves him!!!
    LOL - I can certainly understand your POV :-)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Just in case people were misled by the headlines.

    I can exclusively reveal that all 3 polls ie both real polls and the WI poll

    Would result in............ EICIPM as would every poll since i have been posting ie June 2014.

    The October erosion of the LAB lead has reversed in the early NOV polls so far so to quote Dave

    calm down dears!!

    In all seriousness John, imagine for one second he scrapes a win on those numbers.

    What do you think happens next?

    Still a lot of unpopular decisions to be made.
    Mayhem, Floater. And if there were a way of backing mayhem right now, I would back it.

    Those of us not wedded to a party can see the simple truth.

    Ed in charge of a weak government would be a disaster waiting to happen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033

    No sign as yet of this supposed bad news story for Miliband in The Sunday Telegraph?
    It's almost 11:30 pm, the presses must be rolling by now.

    It was the Wisdom Poll they were talking about, Con ahead

    CON ahead in ICM wisdom/S Tel index where sample what would the vote share be NOT how they would vote.
    CON 31% LAB 30% LD 13% UKIP 16%
    Yebbut it's not a pukka poll is it?
    Martin Boon of ICM says it was the most accurate poll at the last General Election.

    But you are right not to stick it in your elbow.

    I don't put it it my main polling master spreadsheet
    I can't remember if it is in mine. If it's on the wiki I list it.

    Did that count as a crossover? I need to plan some more flights ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Sunil Partly the reason Michael Dobbs named him in the first place

    TheLastBoyScout If Miliband loses it certainly could happen, Umunna would then be the man to beat and Ed Miliband is also likely to prefer him to Cooper and Burnham, Umunna was a supported of Ed in 2010, Cooper and Burnham have been accused of plotting against him
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014
    RobD said:

    No sign as yet of this supposed bad news story for Miliband in The Sunday Telegraph?
    It's almost 11:30 pm, the presses must be rolling by now.

    It was the Wisdom Poll they were talking about, Con ahead

    CON ahead in ICM wisdom/S Tel index where sample what would the vote share be NOT how they would vote.
    CON 31% LAB 30% LD 13% UKIP 16%
    Yebbut it's not a pukka poll is it?
    Martin Boon of ICM says it was the most accurate poll at the last General Election.

    But you are right not to stick it in your elbow.

    I don't put it it my main polling master spreadsheet
    I can't remember if it is in mine. If it's on the wiki I list it.

    Did that count as a crossover? I need to plan some more flights ;)
    Kinda does.

    I'm expecting the Guardian/ICM phone poll out on Monday around 5/6pm.

    So you need to be on a plane at that time mister.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    JohnO said:

    bigjohnowls doing a half decent impersonation of King Canute tonight.

    Thanks

    Tory PBers doing a good job of diverting attention from all tonights VI polls which are terrible for the Tories.

    It will not save them though.
    Level with Yougov terrible?

    Right.
    Sub-30% in two polls released on the same day?
    You know the PB rules Sunil....those polls don't count.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mildly interesting that the ICM Wisdom Poll has the LibDems on 13%, around double the level they are polling in VI polls and a mere 3% below UKIP.

    It is still a long way down from 2010, but the last couple of weeks has seen a modest uptick for the LDs, mostly it seems from Labour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,033

    RobD said:

    No sign as yet of this supposed bad news story for Miliband in The Sunday Telegraph?
    It's almost 11:30 pm, the presses must be rolling by now.

    It was the Wisdom Poll they were talking about, Con ahead

    CON ahead in ICM wisdom/S Tel index where sample what would the vote share be NOT how they would vote.
    CON 31% LAB 30% LD 13% UKIP 16%
    Yebbut it's not a pukka poll is it?
    Martin Boon of ICM says it was the most accurate poll at the last General Election.

    But you are right not to stick it in your elbow.

    I don't put it it my main polling master spreadsheet
    I can't remember if it is in mine. If it's on the wiki I list it.

    Did that count as a crossover? I need to plan some more flights ;)
    Kinda does.

    I'm expecting the Guardian/ICM phone poll out on Monday around 5/6pm.

    So you need to be on a plane at that time mister.
    No can do, I'm afraid! Next booking is second week in Dec. So Ed is safe??
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    No sign as yet of this supposed bad news story for Miliband in The Sunday Telegraph?
    It's almost 11:30 pm, the presses must be rolling by now.

    It was the Wisdom Poll they were talking about, Con ahead

    CON ahead in ICM wisdom/S Tel index where sample what would the vote share be NOT how they would vote.
    CON 31% LAB 30% LD 13% UKIP 16%
    Yebbut it's not a pukka poll is it?
    Martin Boon of ICM says it was the most accurate poll at the last General Election.

    But you are right not to stick it in your elbow.

    I don't put it it my main polling master spreadsheet
    I can't remember if it is in mine. If it's on the wiki I list it.

    Did that count as a crossover? I need to plan some more flights ;)
    Kinda does.

    I'm expecting the Guardian/ICM phone poll out on Monday around 5/6pm.

    So you need to be on a plane at that time mister.
    No can do, I'm afraid! Next booking is second week in Dec. So Ed is safe??
    Yay Ed is safe!

    Your contribution is appreciated.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Just in case people were misled by the headlines.

    I can exclusively reveal that all 3 polls ie both real polls and the WI poll

    Would result in............ EICIPM as would every poll since i have been posting ie June 2014.

    The October erosion of the LAB lead has reversed in the early NOV polls so far so to quote Dave

    calm down dears!!

    In all seriousness John, imagine for one second he scrapes a win on those numbers.

    What do you think happens next?

    Still a lot of unpopular decisions to be made.
    I don't rate Ed much higher than the Ed is Crap brigade but it will not stop me voting Lab to try to get rid of the Tories.

    I will take my chances on it being a longer term disaster for LAB, but you have to take each GE as it comes (football manager speak).

    With MPs like Danczuk and Mann it may well be but I agree with Eds policies that the better off have to shoulder the burden of deficit reduction and thats what matters to me.

    I honestly believe EIC will be PM but lets see what happens.
    Making my position clear I think Labour should not ever be let near the levers of power - their record speaks for itself.

    But I am not a fanboy for any other party either.

    In my honest opinion Ed would be a disaster and you would be better off losing rather than having him as PM for a couple of years.

    But power always more important to Labour than anything else.
  • It is worth noting that Ed wins on all polls this evening and David's Conservatives have somehow managed to get even worse. One might wonder whether the Euroshambles was an elaborate George ploy to #SaveEd
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Been out for the evening, but given that we agreed that these polls would show the impact of really scathing media coverage for Ed, they're a bit of a non-event. Up 3 with Opinium, down 1 with YouGov. Meh. The striking thing about the "But what if the party was led by X?" questions is that they don't make much difference (and if we did change to X the media would start picking X apart instead).

    Voting opinion is very settled - people know what they think about Cameron and Miliband and Clegg, and they've factored it in. It's a boring point and it doesn't make for an exciting news story, but it's the reality. The main significant change over the last year or so has been the advance of UKIP, for at Tory expense and then at Labour's. Potentially that could change in various ways. Otherwise, I don't think much will change at all.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited November 2014

    Been out for the evening, but given that we agreed that these polls would show the impact of really scathing media coverage for Ed, they're a bit of a non-event. Up 3 with Opinium, down 1 with YouGov. Meh. The striking thing about the "But what if the party was led by X?" questions is that they don't make much difference (and if we did change to X the media would start picking X apart instead).

    Voting opinion is very settled - people know what they think about Cameron and Miliband and Clegg, and they've factored it in. It's a boring point and it doesn't make for an exciting news story, but it's the reality. The main significant change over the last year or so has been the advance of UKIP, for at Tory expense and then at Labour's. Potentially that could change in various ways. Otherwise, I don't think much will change at all.

    Looking at the polls, Labour increases its lead in Opinium and Survation and falls back to parity on Yougov. With regards the papers, that right of UKIP MP Simon Danczuk has placed an article in every Labour supporters fave paper The Mail attacking Ed Miliband. The twitter attacks on him from the rank and file members is something to behold. Wonder how many party members will be running to his aid in a few months time when he has to defend his marginal seat of Rochdale. At least he will have the money from when his Mrs appears in Playboy/on Big Brother to fallback on.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014

    impartial said:

    How can the BBC news at 11pm not even mention Ed and his woes given the press emerging minute by minute. Serously behind the plot or is it a weak attempt to keep the EU story going? Mmmmmmm

    How do you think? It matters not a jot to those BBC lefties that Sky are actually LEADING on this story!

    Quite, unlike Sky their income is guaranteed by law. Makes them lazy i guess or lefties or both more like.

    The Mail story is a blatant lie. The Observer story is so vastly inflated in numbers as to fail the sniff test. Yes there is disquiet. Yes Danczuk is a scab. But a Labour party out to stab Ed in the back? Only non the script the press decided to write.

    Good man! Keep up that good work, both you and BenM. We don't want Ed going anywhere at the moment

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    edited November 2014
    Survation finds 42% of voters believe Cameron got a good result in EU budget negotiations against 33% disagreeing, 35% believe Miliband would have done worse. 54% want to leave the EU, 31% remain
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2827026/Voters-Cameron-EU-cash-half-Mail-Sunday-poll-say-PM-right-stand-Brussels-1-75bn-bill.html
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation asked an EU Referendum question too.

    Out: 54%
    In: 31%
    Undecided: 15%

    http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=8f029ae69e
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @RochdalePioneers

    'The Mail story is a blatant lie. The Observer story is so vastly inflated in numbers as to fail the sniff test. '

    What do you expect from the Tory press?.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Thelastboyscout No, the Tories are ahead with ICM and tied with yougov
  • So Miliband's engulfed in a crisis which nobody can quite put a finger on but seems to be growing in the media day by day. I always had a feeling the media would find a way of getting payback for Leveson. I have a hunch that this will drag on in some form or other until election day
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited November 2014
    Sky News
    Alan Johnson states he doesn't think he is up to the role and doesn't want to do it. Hard to see then how he can ever be considered when he had to leave the other post of shadow COE as he also thought he was not up to that role either . If Labour choose him then it will be a complete total turkey shoot.

    Knowing Labour though that won't stop them actually doing it of course
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    manofkent2014

    But will save the best bits for the election campaign.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    john_zims said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    'The Mail story is a blatant lie. The Observer story is so vastly inflated in numbers as to fail the sniff test. '

    What do you expect from the Tory press?.


    Thank goodness then for that bastion of honesty the left wing press. Where would we be without them?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation asked a Wisom Index style question too.

    1) Leaving aside what you would prefer to happen, which of the two main parties do you most expect to be in power after next year’s election?

    The Labour Party - 34%
    The Conservative Party - 37%
    Don’t know - 29%

    http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=8f029ae69e
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Survation asked an EU Referendum question too.

    Out: 54%
    In: 31%
    Undecided: 15%

    http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=8f029ae69e

    The sort of stats that won't get reported by the mainstream media.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited November 2014
    HYUFD ICM is NOT a Voting Intention poll, merely a prediction ("Wisdom Index")
  • Been out for the evening, but given that we agreed that these polls would show the impact of really scathing media coverage for Ed, they're a bit of a non-event. Up 3 with Opinium, down 1 with YouGov. Meh. The striking thing about the "But what if the party was led by X?" questions is that they don't make much difference (and if we did change to X the media would start picking X apart instead).

    Voting opinion is very settled - people know what they think about Cameron and Miliband and Clegg, and they've factored it in. It's a boring point and it doesn't make for an exciting news story, but it's the reality. The main significant change over the last year or so has been the advance of UKIP, for at Tory expense and then at Labour's. Potentially that could change in various ways. Otherwise, I don't think much will change at all.

    Looking at the polls, Labour increases its lead in Opinium and Survation and falls back to parity on Yougov. With regards the papers, that right of UKIP MP Simon Danczuk has placed an article in every Labour supporters fave paper The Mail attacking Ed Miliband. The twitter attacks on him from the rank and file members is something to behold. Wonder how many party members will be running to his aid in a few months time when he has to defend his marginal seat of Rochdale. At least he will have the money from when his Mrs appears in Playboy/on Big Brother to fallback on.
    Only a truly desperate leftie could in all seriousness say 'the Twitter attacks' and rely on that for your story.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    HYUFD ICM is NOT a Voting Intention poll, merely a prediction ("Wisdom Index")

    Sunil, you have be warned about this, your total disregard for PB Hodge rules tonight has been a total disgrace, and to make matter worse, no Ed is crap posts.I can see you being banned shortly.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    HYUFD said:

    Well it looks like Labour should have picked Alan Johnson, but if Ed Miliband does not manage to sneak into No 10 through the back door they have a new Messiah in Chukka Umuna

    Indeed if you believe that polling Chukka wins easily, as not even the most cockeyed Conservative would forecast that deficit swinging back in around 180 days. But i would file all this stuff in the not going to happen draw.
    Six months till polling day would be enough time for people to realise Chukka's another vacuous, diabolical modern politician who has nothing to say. A lamentable individual.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Been out for the evening, but given that we agreed that these polls would show the impact of really scathing media coverage for Ed, they're a bit of a non-event. Up 3 with Opinium, down 1 with YouGov. Meh. The striking thing about the "But what if the party was led by X?" questions is that they don't make much difference (and if we did change to X the media would start picking X apart instead).

    Voting opinion is very settled - people know what they think about Cameron and Miliband and Clegg, and they've factored it in. It's a boring point and it doesn't make for an exciting news story, but it's the reality. The main significant change over the last year or so has been the advance of UKIP, for at Tory expense and then at Labour's. Potentially that could change in various ways. Otherwise, I don't think much will change at all.

    Looking at the polls, Labour increases its lead in Opinium and Survation and falls back to parity on Yougov. With regards the papers, that right of UKIP MP Simon Danczuk has placed an article in every Labour supporters fave paper The Mail attacking Ed Miliband. The twitter attacks on him from the rank and file members is something to behold. Wonder how many party members will be running to his aid in a few months time when he has to defend his marginal seat of Rochdale. At least he will have the money from when his Mrs appears in Playboy/on Big Brother to fallback on.
    Only a truly desperate leftie could in all seriousness say 'the Twitter attacks' and rely on that for your story.
    "story"...... just a mere observation, old chum.
  • saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Without looking further down, so I maybe wrong, it looks like the only poll TSE has not posted,despite it being realeased nearly an hour ago.....mmmmm....strange that?
    Always wrong aren't you Compouter.

    I posted it down thread.

    In fact I think I was the first to do so.
    Always smug aren't you TSE?

    How's Dave at 29% working out for you?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    A BBC training video from 1987:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ped7YNlWm8
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited November 2014

    saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Without looking further down, so I maybe wrong, it looks like the only poll TSE has not posted,despite it being realeased nearly an hour ago.....mmmmm....strange that?
    Always wrong aren't you Compouter.

    I posted it down thread.

    In fact I think I was the first to do so.
    Always smug aren't you TSE?

    How's Dave at 29% working out for you?
    I did actually point out that I did state "I may be wrong" as I couldn't be arsed looking down the thread, and tonight and every other nights story is Ed is crap, no matter what the Tory Party polls.....and UKIP are getting even less. (thought I would throw that in just for you).
  • saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Without looking further down, so I maybe wrong, it looks like the only poll TSE has not posted,despite it being realeased nearly an hour ago.....mmmmm....strange that?
    Always wrong aren't you Compouter.

    I posted it down thread.

    In fact I think I was the first to do so.
    Always smug aren't you TSE?

    How's Dave at 29% working out for you?
    I did actually point out that I did state "I may be wrong" as I couldn't be arsed looking down the thread, and tonight and every other nights story is Ed is crap, no matter what the Tory Party polls.....and UKIP are getting even less. (thought I would throw that in just for you).
    That's the last time I stick up for you!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    saddened said:

    Survation poll:

    CON 29% +2%
    LAB 34% +3%
    UKIP 23% -1%
    LD - 6% -3%
    AP 8% -1%

    Disaster for Ed

    Yes because that's what all the major news outlets are focusing on isn't it?
    Without looking further down, so I maybe wrong, it looks like the only poll TSE has not posted,despite it being realeased nearly an hour ago.....mmmmm....strange that?
    Always wrong aren't you Compouter.

    I posted it down thread.

    In fact I think I was the first to do so.
    Always smug aren't you TSE?

    How's Dave at 29% working out for you?
    I did actually point out that I did state "I may be wrong" as I couldn't be arsed looking down the thread, and tonight and every other nights story is Ed is crap, no matter what the Tory Party polls.....and UKIP are getting even less. (thought I would throw that in just for you).
    That's the last time I stick up for you!
    :-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone remember the 1980s BBC medical programme "Bodymatters"?

    At the time it was one of the BBC's most popular programmes, but seems to have been completely forgotten about now, and there doesn't seem to be any footage of it on YouTube.

    http://genome.ch.bbc.co.uk/search/0/20?adv=0&q=Bodymatters&media=all&yf=1923&yt=2009&mf=1&mt=12&tf=00:00&tt=00:00
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone remember the 1980s BBC medical programme "Bodymatters"?

    At the time it was one of the BBC's most popular programmes, but seems to have been completely forgotten about now, and there doesn't seem to be any footage of it on YouTube.

    I remember it! I think I might even have a little bit of one of the episodes on an old videotape (but only in between the main programmes recorded on it).

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Sunil None the less the Tories are ahead and people expect Cameron to be back as PM, yougov is a voting intention poll and the Tories are tied in their Sunday Times poll
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Kentrising Those qualities did not stop Obama winning twice
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunil None the less the Tories are ahead and people expect Cameron to be back as PM, yougov is a voting intention poll and the Tories are tied in their Sunday Times poll

    HYUFD Whereas Survation and Opinium have the Tories on only 29%

    Also Obama seems to be as unpopular as Bush Jr.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Sunil Both Survation and Opinium have UKIP close to or above 20% relatively higher than other polls, which explains the lower Tory score.

    Both Obama and Bush Jnr got elected twice, even if they left office unpopular, Umunna would be more than happy to repeat their feat of 2 election victories. Night!
  • Anyone still awake? Impossible to sleep with this level of ear pain but the NHS say not to turn up until 8am.
  • Do we have data tables for the rest of the polls yet? Wikipedia only has the Survation poll for the Mail.
  • What are the YG scores for UKIP and LDs?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2014
    Interesting to see from the Survation poll that current declared Labour voters are much more anti-EU than current Conservative voters.

    Does this indicate that UKIP have more potential to attract existing Labour supporters than existing Conservative supporters if they are going to increase their support even further. Seems to be one obvious interpretation.

    The figures are (number of poll respondents, EU vote: IN:OUT)
    Conservative     116:78
    Labour 118:119
    Liberal Democrat 11:22
    SNP 14:10
    UKIP 162:12
    Green 6:18
    Oh. Survation must have labelled their columns wrong! I assume that these are the other way around, but I'm leaving it as in the Survation data tables.

    This would reverse my comment, of course.
  • Anyone still awake? Impossible to sleep with this level of ear pain but the NHS say not to turn up until 8am.

    Get well soon!
  • Anyone still awake? Impossible to sleep with this level of ear pain but the NHS say not to turn up until 8am.

    Get well soon!
    Thanks!

    At this stage I would accept getting well at any time - it begin to feels endless when you've been in pain for half a week.
  • Do we have data tables for the rest of the polls yet? Wikipedia only has the Survation poll for the Mail.

    YG should appear tomorrow, Opinium hopefully on Monday.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So all 3 polls which are "terrible" for Labour, will have............Labour, as the largest party, if not outright winner !
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2014

    Do we have data tables for the rest of the polls yet? Wikipedia only has the Survation poll for the Mail.

    YG should appear tomorrow, Opinium hopefully on Monday.
    Cheers. Not soon then. I'm waiting for £25 from Opinium. I don't remember from the timing or the secondary questions whether I would have likely contributed to this latest poll.

    Someone is paying Populus a lot of money for lots of private online opinion polls as I have a politics-oriented poll from them more often than twice a week at times, and I doubt they are polling me more than once for each of their twice-weekly opinion polls..
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Survation:

    Can't even win on their core message

    Q24. Can you imagine Ed Miliband improving the UK’s schools and hospitals?
    YES: 48%
    NO: 52%

    POEWAS

  • Indigo said:

    Survation:

    Can't even win on their core message

    Q24. Can you imagine Ed Miliband improving the UK’s schools and hospitals?
    YES: 48%
    NO: 52%

    POEWAS

    The poverty of Labour's ambition is that people might imagine Ed Miliband doing less damage to the UK's schools and hospitals than David Cameron, and that might be enough.

    For the main parties the next election does look like being a case of who is least crap, rather than who is best. That should favour the incumbent as the undecideds enter the polling booth, but it's going to be a crap mandate whichever of the two main parties has their nose in front in the end.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Survation:

    Can't even win on their core message

    Q24. Can you imagine Ed Miliband improving the UK’s schools and hospitals?
    YES: 48%
    NO: 52%

    POEWAS

    The poverty of Labour's ambition is that people might imagine Ed Miliband doing less damage to the UK's schools and hospitals than David Cameron, and that might be enough.

    For the main parties the next election does look like being a case of who is least crap, rather than who is best. That should favour the incumbent as the undecideds enter the polling booth, but it's going to be a crap mandate whichever of the two main parties has their nose in front in the end.
    Yes indeed. Their bigger problem is that none of the possible leaders, with the exception of Chuka can 60% of people believe will make the economy grow. Even more startling, they can't imagine any of the candidates, including Ed having their finger on the nuclear button (including roughly 3/4 of Labour VI)
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    We're being swamped by clichés. I'm fed up with all these people. The police should catch real criminals. Then they might learn. It's political correctness gone mad.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited November 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Survation finds 42% of voters believe Cameron got a good result in EU budget negotiations against 33% disagreeing, 35% believe Miliband would have done worse. 54% want to leave the EU, 31% remain
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2827026/Voters-Cameron-EU-cash-half-Mail-Sunday-poll-say-PM-right-stand-Brussels-1-75bn-bill.html

    Oh dear - and to think the Miliband/Farage coupling were telling us how badly this would play I the country.

    Maybe they need to 'consciously couple's:)
  • Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Survation:

    Can't even win on their core message

    Q24. Can you imagine Ed Miliband improving the UK’s schools and hospitals?
    YES: 48%
    NO: 52%

    POEWAS

    The poverty of Labour's ambition is that people might imagine Ed Miliband doing less damage to the UK's schools and hospitals than David Cameron, and that might be enough.

    For the main parties the next election does look like being a case of who is least crap, rather than who is best. That should favour the incumbent as the undecideds enter the polling booth, but it's going to be a crap mandate whichever of the two main parties has their nose in front in the end.
    Yes indeed. Their bigger problem is that none of the possible leaders, with the exception of Chuka can 60% of people believe will make the economy grow. Even more startling, they can't imagine any of the candidates, including Ed having their finger on the nuclear button (including roughly 3/4 of Labour VI)
    I can't imagine having my finger on the nuclear button. Talk about a sweaty palms moment! Can you?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Survation:

    Can't even win on their core message

    Q24. Can you imagine Ed Miliband improving the UK’s schools and hospitals?
    YES: 48%
    NO: 52%

    POEWAS

    The poverty of Labour's ambition is that people might imagine Ed Miliband doing less damage to the UK's schools and hospitals than David Cameron, and that might be enough.

    For the main parties the next election does look like being a case of who is least crap, rather than who is best. That should favour the incumbent as the undecideds enter the polling booth, but it's going to be a crap mandate whichever of the two main parties has their nose in front in the end.
    Yes indeed. Their bigger problem is that none of the possible leaders, with the exception of Chuka can 60% of people believe will make the economy grow. Even more startling, they can't imagine any of the candidates, including Ed having their finger on the nuclear button (including roughly 3/4 of Labour VI)
    I can't imagine having my finger on the nuclear button. Talk about a sweaty palms moment! Can you?
    No, but then I dont want to be the PM, it goes with the turf I think!

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited November 2014
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Survation finds 42% of voters believe Cameron got a good result in EU budget negotiations against 33% disagreeing, 35% believe Miliband would have done worse. 54% want to leave the EU, 31% remain
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2827026/Voters-Cameron-EU-cash-half-Mail-Sunday-poll-say-PM-right-stand-Brussels-1-75bn-bill.html

    Oh dear - and to think the Miliband/Farage coupling were telling us how badly this would play I the country.
    I think they are lucky the Labour Leadership Fiasco knocked if off the front pages. If the media had kicked it around for another day or two it might be a different story. But really its not this sort of stuff that decides how people want to vote. Personally I think most of the polling is so much hot air, in the polling booth people will have three things in mind imo. Tribal Loyalty, Who they want (or dont want) to be PM, and their pocket books. Farage is doing well because of the second of these, UKIP have the NOTA vote, and the "understands people like us" vote - ie they are hoovering up the social conservative vote that Dave and Ed so carelessly discarded.

  • Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Survation:

    Can't even win on their core message

    Q24. Can you imagine Ed Miliband improving the UK’s schools and hospitals?
    YES: 48%
    NO: 52%

    POEWAS

    The poverty of Labour's ambition is that people might imagine Ed Miliband doing less damage to the UK's schools and hospitals than David Cameron, and that might be enough.

    For the main parties the next election does look like being a case of who is least crap, rather than who is best. That should favour the incumbent as the undecideds enter the polling booth, but it's going to be a crap mandate whichever of the two main parties has their nose in front in the end.
    Yes indeed. Their bigger problem is that none of the possible leaders, with the exception of Chuka can 60% of people believe will make the economy grow. Even more startling, they can't imagine any of the candidates, including Ed having their finger on the nuclear button (including roughly 3/4 of Labour VI)
    "Person I can least imagine blowing up the world" sounds like a good way to choose a PM.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited November 2014

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Survation:

    Can't even win on their core message

    Q24. Can you imagine Ed Miliband improving the UK’s schools and hospitals?
    YES: 48%
    NO: 52%

    POEWAS

    The poverty of Labour's ambition is that people might imagine Ed Miliband doing less damage to the UK's schools and hospitals than David Cameron, and that might be enough.

    For the main parties the next election does look like being a case of who is least crap, rather than who is best. That should favour the incumbent as the undecideds enter the polling booth, but it's going to be a crap mandate whichever of the two main parties has their nose in front in the end.
    Yes indeed. Their bigger problem is that none of the possible leaders, with the exception of Chuka can 60% of people believe will make the economy grow. Even more startling, they can't imagine any of the candidates, including Ed having their finger on the nuclear button (including roughly 3/4 of Labour VI)
    "Person I can least imagine blowing up the world" sounds like a good way to choose a PM.
    Looks like Andy Burnham is your man then :)

    But it did say "finger on the button", not "pushing the button", so people might not be able to imagine that persons finger on the button because they think they might push it!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited November 2014
    Every time they look they find more hypocrisy from lefties, its the gift that keeps giving.

    "CMT boss Francois Woo last week confirmed that the migrant women from Bangladesh, India and Vietnam were paid £120 a month basic wage – equivalent to 62p an hour.

    The company claims that the dormitory accommodation and three meals a day they provide effectively brings the women’s salaries up to £210, but even that falls far short of the £290 voluntary living wage set by the Mauritian government. To achieve that, the women should be paid £1.47 an hour – not 62p.

    The claim by Whistles – whose chief executive Jane Shepherdson is believed to earn £300,000 a year – that the workers had union representation was also questioned by Jane Ragoo, president of the island’s Trade Unions Consultative Congress."

    And its supported by people that continuously bang on about a Living Wage.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    Survation finds 42% of voters believe Cameron got a good result in EU budget negotiations against 33% disagreeing, 35% believe Miliband would have done worse. 54% want to leave the EU, 31% remain
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2827026/Voters-Cameron-EU-cash-half-Mail-Sunday-poll-say-PM-right-stand-Brussels-1-75bn-bill.html

    Oh dear - and to think the Miliband/Farage coupling were telling us how badly this would play I the country.

    Maybe they need to 'consciously couple's:)
    That poll was taken before the lie was exposed
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Just read that Mail article where GO repeats his lie

    He insisted it was ‘not clear’ the £1.7m rebate was going to apply to the surcharge, which was demanded after a recalculation of Britain’s income relative to the other member states.

    This is a lie or GO cannot read.

    This was released by EU the day after the £1.7bn story

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-723_en.htm

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Has anyone Baxtered these terrible polls for Labour ?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited November 2014

    Just read that Mail article where GO repeats his lie

    He insisted it was ‘not clear’ the £1.7m rebate was going to apply to the surcharge, which was demanded after a recalculation of Britain’s income relative to the other member states.

    This is a lie or GO cannot read.

    This was released by EU the day after the £1.7bn story

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-723_en.htm

    That's from the 'Yes Minister' play book. Item 5

    Stage Two: Discredit the evidence you are not publishing, saying
    1. It leaves important questions unanswered.
    2. Much of the evidence is inconclusive.
    3. The figures are open to other interpretations.
    4. Certain findings are contradictory.
    5. Some of the main conclusions have been questioned. (If they haven't, question them yourself; then they have).

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    surbiton said:

    Has anyone Baxtered these terrible polls for Labour ?

    You will not be surprised to know that in all of them EICIPM even the WI non poll poll

    The Survation one has Lab 350 Con 241 LD 30
  • Just read that Mail article where GO repeats his lie

    Oh for the glory days of master negotiator Blair and his root & branch reform of the CAP eh?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Just read that Mail article where GO repeats his lie

    Oh for the glory days of master negotiator Blair and his root & branch reform of the CAP eh?

    Did they both have you fooled?
This discussion has been closed.