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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it d

SystemSystem Posts: 11,699
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

Oh dear. More poll woes coming for Ed Miliband in the Sunday @Telegraph tonight. Will they seal the Labour leader's fate?

Read the full story here


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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    edited November 2014
    Bloody hell

    Ed Miliband’s Labour party leadership was plunged into fresh crisis as senior Labour MPs revealed that at least 20 shadow ministers were on the brink of calling for him to stand down.

    The frontbenchers are willing to go public with their demand if the former home secretary, Alan Johnson, indicates that he would be prepared to step into the breach, should Labour be left leaderless just months from a general election. The senior status of the potential rebels and their numbers represent another grievous blow to Miliband’s authority, after attempts by his aides to minimise the extent of dissatisfaction in the party.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/08/ed-miliband-crisis-labour-mps-back-leadership-change
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Front page of the Observer

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18rKzgCQAAMEfB.jpg
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Opinium:

    Lab 32, Con 29, UKIP 19, LD 9
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Opinium Lab 32 (-1) Con 29 (-4) UKIP 19 (+1) LD 9 (+3)
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Stand down, stand down eddy, please stand down.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Tipping point.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Another dreadful poll for the Conservatives. 29% would be a worse result than either 1997 or 2001. Yet no one seems to think their leader is under any kind of threat on here.

    How low do the Tories have to go before the knives are out for Cameron - 25% or the first poll showing them in third behind UKIP after this week's Euro rebate fiasco.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    stodge said:
    Evening again all :)

    Another dreadful poll for the Conservatives. 29% would be a worse result than either 1997 or 2001. Yet no one seems to think their leader is under any kind of threat on here.

    How low do the Tories have to go before the knives are out for Cameron - 25% or the first poll showing them in third behind UKIP ?

    The latter, if only because I can conceive of a poll, rogue or not, where UKIP have more than 26, so Con need not fall that far before being behind them at some point.

    Of course the knives are already our for him, there seems a core of MPs who absolutely detest him and would do anything to see him fail, it's just they haven't seen a good opportunity to plunge those knives yet. As their goal is surely to purge the party of the Cameroonians as a whole, I would guess they would prefer to lose heavily in 2015 with Cameron so they can excise the lot, rather than switch to another Cameroon who might do a little better and delay the necessary cleansing fire.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    What's the fieldwork dates for the Opinium poll?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    Dave Cameron = Ed Miliband?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The thread title is misleading again.
    As Mike says, this is a poor poll for the Tories.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Oops Dave has negotiated a 4 point drop with the electorate. Would have been 8 but he won a rebate.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Its a race to the bottom....35% strategy, Labour and Tories, they wish...
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Front page of the Observer

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18rKzgCQAAMEfB.jpg

    Can't be right - all the papers will be leading with Osborne and the EU - especially the left-leaning ones... oh.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MarkHopkins said:

    What's the fieldwork dates for the Opinium poll?

    Logically the middle of the week.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Front page of the Observer

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18rKzgCQAAMEfB.jpg

    Can't be right - all the papers will be leading with Osborne and the EU - especially the left-leaning ones... oh.
    Is that part of the right wing conspiracy to not #backEd?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    29% and it's Ed has the problem ?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Apparently though all will be well according to the Observer article because Ed is going to make a big pro-EU speech to rally the nation behind him. What could possibly go wrong?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
    Tipping point for Ed.

    If 20 Shadow ministers are about to say publicly, in the name of God, go, then he's buggered.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014
    stodge said:

    Another dreadful poll for the Conservatives. 29% would be a worse result than either 1997 or 2001. Yet no one seems to think their leader is under any kind of threat on here.

    How low do the Tories have to go before the knives are out for Cameron - 25% or the first poll showing them in third behind UKIP after this week's Euro rebate fiasco.

    You'd think that the UK having the largest budget deficit in the EU might have some effect on the Conservatives re-election effort.

    Vote Conservative, Labour might be just as bad!

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/did-george-osborne-halve-britains-eu-bill-by-admitting-that-his-growth-is-a-mirage/
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    kle4 said:

    The latter, if only because I can conceive of a poll, rogue or not, where UKIP have more than 26, so Con need not fall that far before being behind them at some point.

    Of course the knives are already our for him, there seems a core of MPs who absolutely detest him and would do anything to see him fail, it's just they haven't seen a good opportunity to plunge those knives yet. As their goal is surely to purge the party of the Cameroonians as a whole, I would guess they would prefer to lose heavily in 2015 with Cameron so they can excise the lot, rather than switch to another Cameroon who might do a little better and delay the necessary cleansing fire.

    So a poor second in Rochester wouldn't be enough either ? Yet the Tories on here don't even want to talk about that. All they want to do is obsess with one Labour leader, provoke a crisis, get rid of said leader and start slagging off the successor whoever that may be.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
    Tipping point for Ed.

    If 20 Shadow ministers are about to say publicly, in the name of God, go, then he's buggered.
    Which shadow ministers?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
    Tipping point for Ed.

    If 20 Shadow ministers are about to say publicly, in the name of God, go, then he's buggered.
    I will believe it when I see it. We had week after week of this with Gordo, and nothing happened. Remember the snow plot, he was going to get knifed, they marched all the big hitters up to the top of the hill, and they all went into reverse gear.
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Oops Dave has negotiated a 4 point drop with the electorate. Would have been 8 but he won a rebate.

    LOL
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    Speedy said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    What's the fieldwork dates for the Opinium poll?

    Logically the middle of the week.
    No, usually Wed to Fri.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
    Tipping point for Ed.

    If 20 Shadow ministers are about to say publicly, in the name of God, go, then he's buggered.
    There are only 25 shadow ministers, I dare you to find 20 willing to say publicly for Ed to go.
    Because of the absurd number I do not believe the Observer article.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Johnson ruled out being leader earlier today.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/11/johnson-comes-out-in-support-of-miliband/
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Oops Dave has negotiated a 4 point drop with the electorate. Would have been 8 but he won a rebate.

    Excellent :)
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Interesting times
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Speedy said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    What's the fieldwork dates for the Opinium poll?

    Logically the middle of the week.
    No, usually Wed to Fri.
    Wednesday and Thursday is in the middle of the week.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
    Tipping point for Ed.

    If 20 Shadow ministers are about to say publicly, in the name of God, go, then he's buggered.
    There are only 29 shadow ministers, I dare you to find 20 willing to say publicly for Ed to go.
    Because of the absurd number I do not believe the Observer article.
    There are 29 members of the shadow cabinet, but there are more Shadow ministers than that, who shadow at Minister of State/PUS level
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
    Tipping point for Ed.

    If 20 Shadow ministers are about to say publicly, in the name of God, go, then he's buggered.
    Says 20 EX shadow ministers...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    The latter, if only because I can conceive of a poll, rogue or not, where UKIP have more than 26, so Con need not fall that far before being behind them at some point.

    Of course the knives are already our for him, there seems a core of MPs who absolutely detest him and would do anything to see him fail, it's just they haven't seen a good opportunity to plunge those knives yet. As their goal is surely to purge the party of the Cameroonians as a whole, I would guess they would prefer to lose heavily in 2015 with Cameron so they can excise the lot, rather than switch to another Cameroon who might do a little better and delay the necessary cleansing fire.

    So a poor second in Rochester wouldn't be enough either ? Yet the Tories on here don't even want to talk about that. All they want to do is obsess with one Labour leader, provoke a crisis, get rid of said leader and start slagging off the successor whoever that may be.
    The Tory vote is just not picking up, it is not being rewarded for the economy picking up at long last. It may be a negative and only partly effective strategy, but making Ed M's position seem even worse than Cameron's is the only change they've got. The poor Scottish polling and the sliver of an opportunity to make Labour seem even half as divided as the Tories already are - or to provoke them into actually being that divided - that provoked this spate of specific Ed M problems, may or may not work, but what else can they try that they haven't already?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Artist said:

    Johnson ruled out being leader earlier today.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/11/johnson-comes-out-in-support-of-miliband/

    Has Kate Hoey ruled herself out?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @charlotteahenry: Another horrendous frontpage for Ed coming up…this time from @IndyOnSunday

    @lisamarkwell: First look at tomorrow's @indyonsunday. #rainbowlist2014 and much more http://t.co/dPfod8nJJH
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    The latter, if only because I can conceive of a poll, rogue or not, where UKIP have more than 26, so Con need not fall that far before being behind them at some point.

    Of course the knives are already our for him, there seems a core of MPs who absolutely detest him and would do anything to see him fail, it's just they haven't seen a good opportunity to plunge those knives yet. As their goal is surely to purge the party of the Cameroonians as a whole, I would guess they would prefer to lose heavily in 2015 with Cameron so they can excise the lot, rather than switch to another Cameroon who might do a little better and delay the necessary cleansing fire.

    So a poor second in Rochester wouldn't be enough either ? Yet the Tories on here don't even want to talk about that. All they want to do is obsess with one Labour leader, provoke a crisis, get rid of said leader and start slagging off the successor whoever that may be.
    Yeah - almost like the silence about LD polling.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,304
    edited November 2014
    Con tend to poll badly with Opinium. Last 4 Opinium polls (oldest first):

    37-29
    34-32
    35-28
    33-33

    Very volatile - the last poll was a tie but there have also been Lab leads of 7 and 8 within the last six weeks.

    So this poll is very average for Opinium.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tipping point.

    What, the Tories on 29%?
    Tipping point for Ed.

    If 20 Shadow ministers are about to say publicly, in the name of God, go, then he's buggered.
    There are only 29 shadow ministers, I dare you to find 20 willing to say publicly for Ed to go.
    Because of the absurd number I do not believe the Observer article.
    There are 29 members of the shadow cabinet, but there are more Shadow ministers than that, who shadow at Minister of State/PUS level
    Correction just 25 not 29, so your task is even more difficult.
    The total number is only 25 including minister of state levels or 31 if you include a broader measure.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet_of_Ed_Miliband

    The Observer article looks like it belongs to the bin, if its just a collection of shadow pps.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    The ringleaders of the prospective coup have collected 20 names of frontbench colleagues – about one-fifth of shadow ministers – who expressed concern at the seriousness of the party’s plight and would act if Johnson offered any encouragement. They believe others would also support the move.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Just before I turn in and settle down to a re-read of Gardens of the Moon, I will say this.

    Me and my fellow Kippers don't care what is happening to Cammo, Clegg or Milliwhatsit. The fact the UKIP keeps firming up is all that counts and is the only thing that counts.

    Vote UKIP, get UKIP!
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    The only cards the Tories have to play are trying to sound tough on immigration which will convince no one and a giveaway Budget next spring.

    I'm pretty sure George "for Britain" Osborne is already trying to work out how much largesse he can get away with. Presumably, that will be followed by huge tax rises or spending cuts for either him or his unfortunate successor.

    Instead of "there is no money left" it'll be a case of "I've given all the money away in order to save my political skin" - the net effect will be the same.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    There are a lot of missing people in this opinion poll … ;)

    Where are the other 11%?!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab maj drifting...

    4.6
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Opinium is nothing out of the ordinary for the Tories with this pollster, but it equals a record low for Labour.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    Speedy said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Speedy said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    What's the fieldwork dates for the Opinium poll?

    Logically the middle of the week.
    No, usually Wed to Fri.
    Wednesday and Thursday is in the middle of the week.
    Is Friday the middle of the week?

    Last Opinium had a fieldwork end date of Friday 24th Oct.
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    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    MikeL said:

    Con tend to poll badly with Opinium. Last 4 Opinium polls (oldest first):

    37-29
    34-32
    35-28
    33-33

    Very volatile - the last poll was a tie bit there have also been Lab leads of 7 and 8.

    So this poll is very average for Opinium.

    YouGov should be more revealing.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alanbrooke said:

    29% and it's Ed has the problem ?

    Have you heard of swingback?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    MikeK said:

    Just before I turn in and settle down to a re-read of Gardens of the Moon!

    Good choice.

    Though I would say that surely Kippers do care what is happening to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband, inasmuch as if the image of them all gets even worse, it firms up the UKIP vote. If any of the big three were able to get a popular leader, it would at the very least even with an optimistic view of things for UKIP, slow their progress.
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    audreyanne said:

    There are a lot of missing people in this opinion poll … ;)

    Where are the other 11%?!

    Green 6 Nats 4 ?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    AndyJS said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    29% and it's Ed has the problem ?

    Have you heard of swingback?
    certainly, but are you suggesting it will hit 10% ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    69% of Labour MPs didn't vote for Ed in the leadership contest.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,328
    Away rom my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    It may not be a good poll for Ed but 29% for Dave?! And Rochester to come. What odds do you think Shadsy will give on both Parties changing Leaders before the GE?
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    audreyanne said:

    There are a lot of missing people in this opinion poll … ;)

    Where are the other 11%?!

    Green 6 Nats 4 ?
    Should be 11% but can't they publish them? If the Greens are within 3% of LibDems it seems a bit unfair.

    Bad Telegraph poll coming up for Labour.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The ringleaders of the prospective coup have collected 20 names of frontbench colleagues – about one-fifth of shadow ministers – who expressed concern at the seriousness of the party’s plight and would act if Johnson offered any encouragement. They believe others would also support the move.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    More dire news for the Tories and Ed is leading Labour to a minority government.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Oh my, even the Jews are having a go at Ed, saying he's toxic

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18wujdIEAAxJgB.jpg
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The ringleaders of the prospective coup have collected 20 names of frontbench colleagues – about one-fifth of shadow ministers – who expressed concern at the seriousness of the party’s plight and would act if Johnson offered any encouragement. They believe others would also support the move.

    Are those 20 MP's the same 20 MP's rumored to plead for Alan Johnson we heard 2 days ago?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Alanbrooke said:

    AndyJS said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    29% and it's Ed has the problem ?

    Have you heard of swingback?
    certainly, but are you suggesting it will hit 10% ?
    :^D LOL !
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Away from my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    ...


    I think they had UKIP at 21% in August.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,328
    stodge said:

    The only cards the Tories have to play are trying to sound tough on immigration which will convince no one and a giveaway Budget next spring.

    I'm pretty sure George "for Britain" Osborne is already trying to work out how much largesse he can get away with. Presumably, that will be followed by huge tax rises or spending cuts for either him or his unfortunate successor.

    Instead of "there is no money left" it'll be a case of "I've given all the money away in order to save my political skin" - the net effect will be the same.

    'Trying to sound tough' on immigration cannot work, Stodge. They cannot outbid UKIP.



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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Opinium (with all due, er, respect) should be classed in the same category (with all due, er, respect) as Lord A's weekly offering.

    Hugely entertaining.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Opinium 8 November 2014 ( 14 November 2013)

    LAB 32 (37) CON 29 (28) UKIP 19 (16) LD 9 (9)

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Away rom my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    It may not be a good poll for Ed but 29% for Dave?! And Rochester to come. What odds do you think Shadsy will give on both Parties changing Leaders before the GE?

    Not even close, the highest with this pollster with UKIP is 21%
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Away rom my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    It may not be a good poll for Ed but 29% for Dave?! And Rochester to come. What odds do you think Shadsy will give on both Parties changing Leaders before the GE?

    Nope 19% with opinium is not a new high, the highest is 21%.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,328
    MarkHopkins said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Away from my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    ...


    I think they had UKIP at 21% in August.
    Noted with thanks, Mark.

    So it's another solid score for them, but not a high water mark.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @christopherhope: BREAK Three point swing from Labour to Conservatives in just four weeks in ICM/@Telegraph poll tonight; Tories ahead for 1st time since May.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    audreyanne said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    audreyanne said:

    There are a lot of missing people in this opinion poll … ;)

    Where are the other 11%?!

    Green 6 Nats 4 ?
    Should be 11% but can't they publish them? If the Greens are within 3% of LibDems it seems a bit unfair.

    Bad Telegraph poll coming up for Labour.
    Sunday Times publish the YouGov.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    Oh poor Ed

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 32s32 seconds ago

    Sunday Times front page:

    "Labour voters say Miliband unfit to be PM"

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18x1n2CAAA_5mD.jpg:large
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh my, even the Jews are having a go at Ed, saying he's toxic

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18wujdIEAAxJgB.jpg

    Did you know that there is a hebrew slang word pronounced kipper. It means a skull cap, make of that what you will. And goodnight all. ;)
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MarkHopkins said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Away from my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    ...


    I think they had UKIP at 21% in August.
    That opinium poll wasn't that different that tonight's one, back then it was LAB 32, CON 28, UKIP 21, LD 10.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,504
    This might be true, but Labour being Labour excuses will always be made to delay the knifing: "The Tories are on 29%", "Let's wait for the Tory infighting after Rochester", "We're still on course for most seats" etc.

    Eventually they'll just run out of time.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Must say I am surprised by these negative Ed M stories having such prominence. Even if the Cameroon's interpretation of events in Europe are wholly correct, the picture the public has been getting is that they have been caught out spinning, and being caught in such behaviour about the despised EU seems even more headline grabbing than that Ed M has problems.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Scott_P said:

    @charlotteahenry: Another horrendous frontpage for Ed coming up…this time from @IndyOnSunday

    @lisamarkwell: First look at tomorrow's @indyonsunday. #rainbowlist2014 and much more http://t.co/dPfod8nJJH

    Ouch
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    Helpful headlines for Ed from Sunday Times - Labour Voters Say Ed Miliband Unfit to be PM.

    And Cameron is buried in poppies.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited November 2014
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Away rom my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    Nah.

    Opinium have UKIP on 18/19/20/21 regularly.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Wisdom Index...
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    edited November 2014
    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAK Three point swing from Labour to Conservatives in just four weeks in ICM/@Telegraph poll tonight; Tories ahead for 1st time since May.

    Oh dear not the headlines the kipper loons were wanting - EU deal doesen't get a mention.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @christopherhope: BREAK ICM asked if an election tomorrow, what would the vote share be? Result: Conservative 31% Labour 30% Lib Dems 13% UKIP 16% Others 9%
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAK Three point swing from Labour to Conservatives in just four weeks in ICM/@Telegraph poll tonight; Tories ahead for 1st time since May.

    Previous ICM was I think Lab 35, Con 31, UKIP 14, LD 11.

    So 3 point swing would put the Tories 2 points ahead.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAK Three point swing from Labour to Conservatives in just four weeks in ICM/@Telegraph poll tonight; Tories ahead for 1st time since May.

    The wisdom index is not a poll.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Here's the Opinium Chart for 2014.

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh poor Ed

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 32s32 seconds ago

    Sunday Times front page:

    "Labour voters say Miliband unfit to be PM"

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18x1n2CAAA_5mD.jpg:large

    I am guessing the telegraph bad news is about ed's personal rating rather than about vote shares.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    If there was a mechanism to remove Ed, that process would be in motion now, I have no doubt.

    However, there isn't. It is down to Ed realising he will cost Labour many, many seats and quite possibly the replacement of a Tory-led Coalition.

    I have said before, I think he will mull this over - and for the good of the party that has been his life, he will stand down, by a week on Monday. Marquee Mark my words....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    audreyanne said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Away rom my normal desk, so can anybody tell me if that is a new high for UKIP with this pollster?

    Nah.

    Opinium have UKIP on 18/19/20/21 regularly.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
    Highest Opinium score for UKIP (19%) for two months.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,504
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh poor Ed

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 32s32 seconds ago

    Sunday Times front page:

    "Labour voters say Miliband unfit to be PM"

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18x1n2CAAA_5mD.jpg:large

    That's truly awful. Miliband's disastrous conference 2014 speech will be studied for years as an example of how to totally throw an election away.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited November 2014
    kle4 said:

    Must say I am surprised by these negative Ed M stories having such prominence. .

    Two words: Mansion Tax.

    He snapped off the hand that fed him ...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alanbrooke said:

    AndyJS said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    29% and it's Ed has the problem ?

    Have you heard of swingback?
    certainly, but are you suggesting it will hit 10% ?
    I'm talking about Ed failing to win a majority, not the Tories winning one.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stodge said:

    The only cards the Tories have to play are.

    The autumn statement and the budget are two huge cards..
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    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    kle4 said:

    Must say I am surprised by these negative Ed M stories having such prominence. Even if the Cameroon's interpretation of events in Europe are wholly correct, the picture the public has been getting is that they have been caught out spinning, and being caught in such behaviour about the despised EU seems even more headline grabbing than that Ed M has problems.

    The EU thingy was always going to be taken over by bad polls for Ed.

    Pub talk today wasn't about the EU money it was about Ed's leadership.

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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAK Three point swing from Labour to Conservatives in just four weeks in ICM/@Telegraph poll tonight; Tories ahead for 1st time since May.

    Oh dear not the headlines the kipper loons were wanting - EU deal doesen't get a mention.
    Well I'm sure Tories must be wetting their panties with excitement at the thought they are polling at 2001 General Election levels........
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    MarqueeMark said:

    If there was a mechanism to remove Ed, that process would be in motion now, I have no doubt.

    However, there isn't. It is down to Ed realising he will cost Labour many, many seats and quite possibly the replacement of a Tory-led Coalition.

    I have said before, I think he will mull this over - and for the good of the party that has been his life, he will stand down, by a week on Monday. Marquee Mark my words....

    Why a week on Monday? That would be three days shy of the Tory rout at Rochester!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    @christopherhope: BREAK Three point swing from Labour to Conservatives in just four weeks in ICM/@Telegraph poll tonight; Tories ahead for 1st time since May.

    Oh dear not the headlines the kipper loons were wanting - EU deal doesen't get a mention.
    Kippers were predicting GO would resign by Tuesday,,,
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ST : Darling attacks mansion tax...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    If there was a mechanism to remove Ed, that process would be in motion now, I have no doubt.

    However, there isn't. It is down to Ed realising he will cost Labour many, many seats and quite possibly the replacement of a Tory-led Coalition.

    I have said before, I think he will mull this over - and for the good of the party that has been his life, he will stand down, by a week on Monday. Marquee Mark my words....

    Why a week on Monday? That would be three days shy of the Tory rout at Rochester!
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    If there was a mechanism to remove Ed, that process would be in motion now, I have no doubt.

    However, there isn't. It is down to Ed realising he will cost Labour many, many seats and quite possibly the replacement of a Tory-led Coalition.

    I have said before, I think he will mull this over - and for the good of the party that has been his life, he will stand down, by a week on Monday. Marquee Mark my words....

    Why a week on Monday? That would be three days shy of the Tory rout at Rochester!
    Because Labour cannot withstand more than two weekends of this....

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    kle4 said:

    Must say I am surprised by these negative Ed M stories having such prominence. Even if the Cameroon's interpretation of events in Europe are wholly correct, the picture the public has been getting is that they have been caught out spinning, and being caught in such behaviour about the despised EU seems even more headline grabbing than that Ed M has problems.

    No - it'a the picture painted by Labour and UKIP which is prominent on here - not in the real world.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    If Labour people really want Ed out, the best thing they can do is, is have a whip round, and pay for Mike to go on a holiday for the next two weeks.

    Because as we all know, NOTHING EVER HAPPENS WHEN MIKE GOES ON HOLIDAY
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    The Tories have seized their first lead in the ICM WISDOM INDEX.

    No crossover in VI then.

    Actually VI polls this week are much better for LAB despite the froth as I am sure the SUNIL ON SUNDAY will confirm.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh poor Ed

    Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick 32s32 seconds ago

    Sunday Times front page:

    "Labour voters say Miliband unfit to be PM"

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B18x1n2CAAA_5mD.jpg:large

    That's truly awful. Miliband's disastrous conference 2014 speech will be studied for years as an example of how to totally throw an election away.
    Not sure he was ever going to win it, TBH.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited November 2014
    Eastwinger said:

    kle4 said:

    Must say I am surprised by these negative Ed M stories having such prominence. Even if the Cameroon's interpretation of events in Europe are wholly correct, the picture the public has been getting is that they have been caught out spinning, and being caught in such behaviour about the despised EU seems even more headline grabbing than that Ed M has problems.

    The EU thingy was always going to be taken over by bad polls for Ed.

    Pub talk today wasn't about the EU money it was about Ed's leadership.

    LOL, you must go to a very interesting pub, discussing Ed's leadership.
This discussion has been closed.