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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM sees Ukip double its April share to 18 percent

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,035

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
    Mace Windu, like Master Yoda was so crap and inept, I mean they didn't even notice a Sith Lord right under their noses.

    That's the sort of mistake I'd expect from Hannibal or Ed Miliband
    The Force is strong with you, young Eagles. You are not a Kipper yet!
    UKIP wouldn't want me
    The Force is strong with you. A powerful Kipper you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth Eagles.
    Nooo, I'm more Jar Jar Binks
    Jar Jar - I spake!
    Qui Gon - The ability to speak does not make you intelligent!
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Me. Clearly since the locals he's making it up on a daily basis.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    toadmeister Great news that Cameron is bringing forward a Referendum Bill. Forget the Tory splits crap. Sit back and watch Labour and the LDs squirm

    And this as got me worried it's going to be another political f... up by cammers ;-)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I would ask on ConHome but I am afraid of certain people there.

    They should be ashamed of themselves, Andrea ;)

    But, yeah, 2 seats looks most likely for the Tories there anyway so it may not be James Cracknell MEP this time. Wasnt Colin Moynihan's seat in the south-west? He can maybe go for that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,694
    The irony is that Cameron actually did find a successful EU policy with his veto of late 2011.

    Conservative MPs were cheering him and the party was 6% ahead in the polls while EdM was in big trouble.

    And Cameron still went and tossed it away.

    He really is a sh1te politician isn't he.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826

    I would ask on ConHome but I am afraid of certain people there.

    If it's any consolation, I'm afraid of a few people there as well
  • And Cameron seems to have slipped another reversal of his posiution in wqithout anyone noticing really.

    Speaking ahead of talks with President Obama at the White House, Mr Cameron indicated that he could be prepared to support a British exit if his attempts to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU fails.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10053850/David-Cameron-relationship-with-EU-is-unacceptable.html

    How on earth are we expected to take Downing Street seriously when policy seems to be decided by whichever way the wind is blowing?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013

    The 15 Labour MPs for the Referendum are:

    Ronnie Campbell, Rosie Cooper, John Cryer, Ian Davidson, Jim Dowd, Natascha Engel, Frank Field, Roger Godsiff, Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins, John McDonnell, Austin Mitchell, Grahame Morris, Graham Stringer, Keith Vaz.

    No Gisella? I'm surprised.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Neil

    Yeah, they should. 2-3 vile people. They reached me on another blog accusing me to pretend being a swing voter on ConHome but they were sure to have unmasked me as the assistant of a Labour MP....or something like that. That was in 2010...but I looked at the Euro selection thread yesterday and 2 of them were still there. I am afraid of them.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,899
    Dr. Prasannan, the prequels are a great example of what happens when the storyline is sacrificed on the altar of hero (fallen hero, as it turns out) worship.

    I preferred the first film, where Vader was Grand Moff Tarkin's underling, and had the piss taken out of him by an ill-advised officer on the Death Star.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    At this rate,with the tory splits running big,wonder when the ukip/tory crossover will be ;-)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Plato said:

    The 15 Labour MPs for the Referendum are:

    Ronnie Campbell, Rosie Cooper, John Cryer, Ian Davidson, Jim Dowd, Natascha Engel, Frank Field, Roger Godsiff, Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins, John McDonnell, Austin Mitchell, Grahame Morris, Graham Stringer, Keith Vaz.

    No Gisella? I'm surprised.
    She was probably away and didn't have time to sign. It's a name I would expect to be in that mix.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    More on Europe. More pain for the Tories.

    My only wonder is can they keep this EU row going long enough to crash into the gay marriage row. Now that would be funny. UKIP might overtake the Tories.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    At this rate,with the tory splits running big,wonder when the ukip/tory crossover will be ;-)

    Split? Are there any no-referendum-thank-you Conservative MPs?

  • The irony is that Cameron actually did find a successful EU policy with his veto of late 2011.

    Conservative MPs were cheering him and the party was 6% ahead in the polls while EdM was in big trouble.

    And Cameron still went and tossed it away.

    He really is a sh1te politician isn't he.

    Except the number of areas the Government has vetoes on is reduced dramatically after 2014. Then most things go to Qualified Majority Voting (a list of the areas is provided in the linked article).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_in_the_Council_of_the_European_Union
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Maybe there are the same! One of my "accusers" is this charming lady
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/davehillblog/2010/may/04/shaun-bailey-sally-roberts-conservatives-hammersmith-heckler

    I would ask on ConHome but I am afraid of certain people there.

    If it's any consolation, I'm afraid of a few people there as well
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826
    Bobby Mancini sacked
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    I am afraid of them.....

    I find ignoring trolls like that the best way to go, Andrea.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,035
    edited May 2013

    Dr. Prasannan, the prequels are a great example of what happens when the storyline is sacrificed on the altar of hero (fallen hero, as it turns out) worship.

    I preferred the first film, where Vader was Grand Moff Tarkin's underling, and had the piss taken out of him by an ill-advised officer on the Death Star.

    Mr Dancer,
    It did seem strange in the original Star Wars that he was an "underling" to Tarkin. We know now that he was actually Palpatine's number 2.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    And this as got me worried it's going to be another political f... up by cammers ;-)

    I believe he calls them 'uh-ohs'. It makes him feel less like a failure.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,899
    Mr. Eagles, that seems a bit odd to me, though I'm not into football.

    Interesting that Ferguson used his address at Old Trafford to call on the club to stand by Moyes if there are tough times, as it stood by him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826

    Maybe there are the same! One of my "accusers" is this charming lady
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/davehillblog/2010/may/04/shaun-bailey-sally-roberts-conservatives-hammersmith-heckler

    I would ask on ConHome but I am afraid of certain people there.

    If it's any consolation, I'm afraid of a few people there as well
    Over at conhome, I've been called all sorts.

    A Lib Dem, a Labour supporter, a UKIPer, a Cameroon, a Cameron hater.

    If only they knew what a star you are.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826

    Mr. Eagles, that seems a bit odd to me, though I'm not into football.

    Interesting that Ferguson used his address at Old Trafford to call on the club to stand by Moyes if there are tough times, as it stood by him.

    I guess it is because they've regressed this season.

    But it is a silly decision.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    WE now know why the Conservatives support FPTP. UKIP gets ZERO seats.

    Oops, some other party has won the election from the blind side !
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Dr. Prasannan, the prequels are a great example of what happens when the storyline is sacrificed on the altar of hero (fallen hero, as it turns out) worship.

    I preferred the first film, where Vader was Grand Moff Tarkin's underling, and had the piss taken out of him by an ill-advised officer on the Death Star.

    Mr Dancer,
    It did seem strange in the original Star Wars that he was an "underling" to Tarkin. We know now that he was actually Palpatine's number 2.
    Could you handwave it as a naval style, captain on his own ship is in charge even if higher ranking person is on board?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    @TSE

    The thing that irriated me the most was that they actually come to another blog who had nothing to do with ConHome posting their accusations and making me look as pretty silly. And whilst replying to them, I was so angry that I made more spelling mistakes than usual. And so they even told me off for my grammar!

    I don't forget!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826

    Dr. Prasannan, the prequels are a great example of what happens when the storyline is sacrificed on the altar of hero (fallen hero, as it turns out) worship.

    I preferred the first film, where Vader was Grand Moff Tarkin's underling, and had the piss taken out of him by an ill-advised officer on the Death Star.

    Mr Dancer,
    It did seem strange in the original Star Wars that he was an "underling" to Tarkin. We know now that he was actually Palpatine's number 2.
    There's a simple explanation for that.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    surbiton said:

    WE now know why the Conservatives support FPTP. UKIP gets ZERO seats.

    Oops, some other party has won the election from the blind side !

    I can see you didn't understand the AV debates.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,899
    It's interesting that F1 teams, although immensely competitive, take almost the exact opposite approach to football clubs. Team principals change only very rarely and tend to hang around for ages.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    You would need an electoral system that would allow that. Come back to reality Sean. UKIP will probably have less seats than the greens after the next election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826

    @TSE

    The thing that irriated me the most was that they actually come to another blog who had nothing to do with ConHome posting their accusations and making me look as pretty silly. And whilst replying to them, I was so angry that I made more spelling mistakes than usual. And so they even told me off for my grammar!

    I still remember!

    I've stopped visiting conhome.

    That place will rot your brain.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    The irony is that Cameron actually did find a successful EU policy with his veto of late 2011.

    Conservative MPs were cheering him and the party was 6% ahead in the polls while EdM was in big trouble.

    And Cameron still went and tossed it away.

    He really is a sh1te politician isn't he.

    No, the irony is gullible tory eurosceptics actually believed his flounce. Along with the most amusing PBtories of course.

    When they couldn't avoid the fact that it was pure posturing and bullsh*t they were less than amused.
    Eurosceptics treated Cameron like a foul smell

    Betrayed by their hero, Cameron's eurosceptics are quickly returning to their bitter, angry roots.

    The last time David Cameron updated the Commons on his return from Brussels he was treated like a hero. The acclaim appeared to have no limits; the prodigal son, had he seen this display of lionising, must have felt like a big disappointment upon his own return. What a difference a follow-up summit makes. Today the Tory eurosceptics edged away from the PM, collectively wrinkling their noses as if he had made a bad smell.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2012/01/31/sketch-eurosceptics-treated-cameron-like-a-foul-smell

    Which will happen again because no matter how many times they get taken for fools they just keep coming back for more. Cammie will continue with empty posturing, Eurosceptics will continue banging on about Europe and Farage will keep laughing uproariously as they do all his work for him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    corporeal said:

    Dr. Prasannan, the prequels are a great example of what happens when the storyline is sacrificed on the altar of hero (fallen hero, as it turns out) worship.

    I preferred the first film, where Vader was Grand Moff Tarkin's underling, and had the piss taken out of him by an ill-advised officer on the Death Star.

    Mr Dancer,
    It did seem strange in the original Star Wars that he was an "underling" to Tarkin. We know now that he was actually Palpatine's number 2.
    Could you handwave it as a naval style, captain on his own ship is in charge even if higher ranking person is on board?
    I handwave it as Tarkin being a total badass whom Vader respected and that other officer a recent transferee who had never believed the tales of Vader's powers (despite, you know, the Emperor being a sorcerer - a fact about the movies I loves, in that the empire was just this evil militaristic power, who just happened to be run by a sorcerer. The Malazan Book of the Fallen series had a similar gimick in its backstory as a recall, perhaps in homage) or else had just been told he had terminal cancer and 'death by Vader' is covered under the Imperial benefits package for widows.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    It's interesting that F1 teams, although immensely competitive, take almost the exact opposite approach to football clubs. Team principals change only very rarely and tend to hang around for ages.

    The adage out of American sports is "They can't fire all the players..."

    When you've got two drivers then that's a much more feasible option.
  • What the flying feck does Cameron think he's doing? Truly, our political leaders are only chasing being in power, for powers sake.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    They reached me on another blog accusing me to pretend being a swing voter on ConHome

    Could have been worse, they might have accused you of being a "serial labour voter". ;^ )

  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    The liblabcon showing the seven stages of grief at the death of the three party system

    http://www.psychforums.com/relationship/topic84035.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IOS said:

    Charles.

    The efficient vote distribution is precisely because of the campaigning members you dolt!

    No, it's ruthless strategic decision making by the former leadership team to target financial resources and political messaging/policies at the marginal areas. Good campaigning, but ultimately has hollowed out the party and caused great damage to the political system in the UK.

    The activists are just pawns to be moved around as needed. They're not rooks or bishops, not even knights. Just pawns.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826
    edited May 2013
    Which reminds me, you all know the destruction of the first Death Star was an inside job by Darth Vader

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEPazLTGceI
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Nadine on Newsnight!

    Yay! I hope she's had a few at the party.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    I'm starting to think on Gin's line,cameron could be in trouble as tory leader,he's been found out at politics.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Nadine banging on about Europe on newsnight. At least she's stopped banging on about the out of touch posh boys, for the moment.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Sean

    Except I am not aware of an anti SNP pro independence party (is the SSP still going?)

    You need to see the back of the Tories for that analogy to work. UKIP can't overcome the hurdle of FPTP without destroying the Tories first.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Mick, nah, I just work for a Labour MP in a marginal. Actually, if any MP in a marginal needs a paid intern....
    Mick_Pork said:

    They reached me on another blog accusing me to pretend being a swing voter on ConHome

    Could have been worse, they might have accused you of being a "serial labour voter". ;^ )

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Chalres

    Sigh. Go away and read Kavanagh and Cowleys book on the 2010 general election. If that was the case our marginal seats would have had a uniform swing.

    I can't decide whether it is politics you don't really understand or if you are just a bit dim.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    Cameron has lost control.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Nadine is against a referendum in 2017 because that's when she plans to be on Celebrity Big Brother.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Baroness Thatcher's legacy is to be honoured with a £100million scholarship trust for "future leaders" at Oxford University backed by patrons including Tony Blair, Lord Owen and George Bush senior. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/10054970/Baroness-Thatchers-legacy-to-be-honoured-with-Oxford-University-scholarship-trust.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,323
    edited May 2013

    I'm starting to think on Gin's line,cameron could be in trouble as tory leader,he's been found out at politics.

    He certainly is/will be in big trouble if he doesn't start hearing his party and responding positively to what happened at the local elections.

    As I've explained once today, the political sands have shifted. First with UKIP's election performance and then with Lord Lawson's intervention the game has changed. Cameron has been trying to behave as though these things haven't happened and his leadership has been found wanting because of this.

    This latest development might just be the first signs he is waking up to the fact that the tide is coming in over the political establishments heads. Or then again it might be the final panic stricken death throws of a drowning man.

    One thing I am clear about, if Cameron and those around him don't start getting into the real world his leadership is very much at risk.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    edited May 2013
    Jonathan said:

    Cameron has lost control.

    And the parliamentary Tory party have lost their minds. It's hard to see how their behaviour is helping them achieve what they want, but I guess they don't care anymore. Standing on...principle?

    Really that's the problem. Cameron's no longer the man they want, he cannot make himself into what they want and be believed, but it's hard to actually replace him without letting Labour in through the gaping hole that was the front door.

  • Bayern Munich - new manager
    Manchester United - new manager
    Manchester City - new manager
    Chelsea - new manager
    Real Madrid - new manager almost certainly
    PSG - Ancellotti has not confirmed he is staying (has been mentionewd for Real Madrid)
    Barcelona - Manager in second season having been ill for much of his first season.

    Given that scenario what better time could there be for Ferguson to have retired?


  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Actually, if any MP in a marginal needs a paid intern....

    I suspect that will be a growing number of MPs Andrea so you just never know.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826

    Bayern Munich - new manager
    Manchester United - new manager
    Manchester City - new manager
    Chelsea - new manager
    Real Madrid - new manager almost certainly
    PSG - Ancellotti has not confirmed he is staying (has been mentionewd for Real Madrid)
    Barcelona - Manager in second season having been ill for much of his first season.

    Given that scenario what better time could there be for Ferguson to have retired?


    PSG announced today, that Real had asked them for permission to talk to Carlo, but they said no
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:


    Sigh. Go away and read Kavanagh and Cowleys book on the 2010 general election. If that was the case our marginal seats would have had a uniform swing.

    I cant quite remember the figures exactly but didnt Labour underperform UNS in 2010?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited May 2013
    @SeanT

    He will only understand if you explain it in an algorhythm
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Jonathan said:

    Cameron has lost control.

    That assumes he ever had a measure of it over this issue. He didn't. He just kept feeding the fires while hoping this time would draw a line under it. A somewhat peculiar expectation given how banging on about Europe has 'helped' tory leaders in the past.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826
    Neil said:

    IOS said:


    Sigh. Go away and read Kavanagh and Cowleys book on the 2010 general election. If that was the case our marginal seats would have had a uniform swing.

    I cant quite remember the figures exactly but didnt Labour underperform UNS in 2010?
    http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2010/05/seat-calculators-uns-and-2010-general.html
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Good evening, everyone.

    Many things are noteworthy in that poll (I've not checked the thread so I imagine they've been covered already). The Conservatives on 28 might look awful, but they're only 6 points behind Labour. UKIP should be delighted with this result with a pollster who has typically had them lower than the other pollsters.

    On the plus side for the Lib Dems, they could be 11 points lower.

    Seats are decided by the swing. CON to LAB 7%.; LD to CON 2%. LD to LAB 9%.

    Thanks, kippers !! WE understand you have a serious point - whatever that is.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,035

    Which reminds me, you all know the destruction of the first Death Star was an inside job by Darth Vader

    Cool video! Have you seen this? I actually did it myself!

    http://starwars.com/play/online-activities/crawl-creator/?cs=v6vcp82ed4

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826

    Which reminds me, you all know the destruction of the first Death Star was an inside job by Darth Vader

    Cool video! Have you seen this? I actually did it myself!

    http://starwars.com/play/online-activities/crawl-creator/?cs=v6vcp82ed4

    That made me smile, a lot, you should be very proud.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited May 2013
    surbiton said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Many things are noteworthy in that poll (I've not checked the thread so I imagine they've been covered already). The Conservatives on 28 might look awful, but they're only 6 points behind Labour. UKIP should be delighted with this result with a pollster who has typically had them lower than the other pollsters.

    On the plus side for the Lib Dems, they could be 11 points lower.

    Seats are decided by the swing. CON to LAB 7%.; LD to CON 2%. LD to LAB 9%.

    Thanks, kippers !! WE understand you have a serious point - whatever that is.

    Now add in some swingback, and the next tranche of UKIP gain from all parties.... and there could be three parties in the 20s in 2015.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Just been told likely to be push in shadow cabinet tomorrow for Labour to come out for referendum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,826
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 32s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%. Labour lead down at 7 points again.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%. Labour lead down at 7 points again.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,323
    edited May 2013
    Something else thats clear is that it looks like a dreadful decision for Cameron to be in the US while this is all going on.

    I said it would look bad and it does. Whenever a leader is out of country while a crisis is going on it always looks worse. The fact he is with the absurd Obama - Someone who didn't even bother to send one representative to Baroness Thatchers funeral - Just makes it all more surreal.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Neil said:

    IOS said:


    Sigh. Go away and read Kavanagh and Cowleys book on the 2010 general election. If that was the case our marginal seats would have had a uniform swing.

    I cant quite remember the figures exactly but didnt Labour underperform UNS in 2010?
    The Law of Averages dictate some party will do better and some worse. Barring some extraordinary polling [ like post facto exit polls ], UNS is the best guide we have.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    At this rate even Hodges will cancelhis bet with OGH about Labour winning the next GE.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tnewtondunn RT @Sun_Politics YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%. Labour lead down at 7 points again.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Nadine banging on about Europe on newsnight. At least she's stopped banging on about the out of touch posh boys, for the moment.

    Now she's on about 2017 not being soon enough
    She simply doesn't believe it's going to happen nor do any of the tory rebels but they have to keep pushing the sooner argument rather than outright saying Cammie is a liar. They are still MPs after all and don't have the freedom Portillo did to denounce it as an "insincere ploy".

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    DPJHodges If Labour were to agree to back referendum, and call for it this side of GE, David Cameron would be finished.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    GIN1138 said:

    Something else thats clear is thta it looks looking like a dreadful decision for Cameron to be in the US while this is all going on.

    I said it would look bad and it does. Whenever a leader is out of country while a crisis is going on it always looks worse. The fact he is with the absurd Obama - Someone who didn't even bother to send one representative to Baroness Thatchers funeral - Just makes it all more surreal.

    A prime minister can't put all foreign trips on hold just because there is some squabbling in the Westminster bubble. Nothing would ever get done in our relationships with other countries. These trips are normally planned well in advance of any political outbursts.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    If Cameron can come through this with some semblance of control over his party reestablished - and it looks like a big if, even if he just becomes like Nick Clegg, a political zombie that rolls on despite no life signs evident - those who did stick with him will be safe for life under his premisership, that's for sure. He needs people around him willing to stick their necks out for him without sounding tortured about it, and if they are out there, they're not being heard.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,323
    perdix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Something else thats clear is thta it looks looking like a dreadful decision for Cameron to be in the US while this is all going on.

    I said it would look bad and it does. Whenever a leader is out of country while a crisis is going on it always looks worse. The fact he is with the absurd Obama - Someone who didn't even bother to send one representative to Baroness Thatchers funeral - Just makes it all more surreal.

    A prime minister can't put all foreign trips on hold just because there is some squabbling in the Westminster bubble. Nothing would ever get done in our relationships with other countries. These trips are normally planned well in advance of any political outbursts.

    What exactly is he doing in the US?

    Why do our politicians not use the phone and SKYPE? Why don't they tele conference?

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    GIN1138 said:

    Something else thats clear is that it looks like a dreadful decision for Cameron to be in the US while this is all going on.

    I said it would look bad and it does. Whenever a leader is out of country while a crisis is going on it always looks worse. The fact he is with the absurd Obama - Someone who didn't even bother to send one representative to Baroness Thatchers funeral - Just makes it all more surreal.

    Obama may be many things but absurd he is clearly not.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tim said:

    DPJHodges If Labour were to agree to back referendum, and call for it this side of GE, David Cameron would be finished.


    Oh dear I agree with Hodges.

    Labour can finish Cameron's career tomorrow.
    But the Tories might replace him with someone who can win elections
    And by so doing will ruin any chance of Ed ever getting into number 10.

    Weekend - Mr ED no referendum (now?)
    Tuesday - Oh look a political advantage. I want a referendum Now!

    How to be seen as an opportunistic toss**
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    GIN1138 said:

    perdix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Something else thats clear is thta it looks looking like a dreadful decision for Cameron to be in the US while this is all going on.

    I said it would look bad and it does. Whenever a leader is out of country while a crisis is going on it always looks worse. The fact he is with the absurd Obama - Someone who didn't even bother to send one representative to Baroness Thatchers funeral - Just makes it all more surreal.

    A prime minister can't put all foreign trips on hold just because there is some squabbling in the Westminster bubble. Nothing would ever get done in our relationships with other countries. These trips are normally planned well in advance of any political outbursts.

    What exactly is he doing in the US?

    Why do our politicians not use the phone and SKYPE? Why don't they tele conference?

    Ravens
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Charles said:

    IOS said:

    Charles.

    The efficient vote distribution is precisely because of the campaigning members you dolt!

    No, it's ruthless strategic decision making by the former leadership team to target financial resources and political messaging/policies at the marginal areas. Good campaigning, but ultimately has hollowed out the party and caused great damage to the political system in the UK.

    The activists are just pawns to be moved around as needed. They're not rooks or bishops, not even knights. Just pawns.
    Alternatively, Labour safe seats tend to be demographically disposed to produce lower turnout than Conservative safe seats.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    edited May 2013
    philiph said:

    tim said:

    DPJHodges If Labour were to agree to back referendum, and call for it this side of GE, David Cameron would be finished.


    Oh dear I agree with Hodges.

    Labour can finish Cameron's career tomorrow.
    But the Tories might replace him with someone who can win elections
    How to be seen as an opportunistic toss**
    Now seems an appropriate time to be able to get away with such opportunism, as the opponents are commiting suicide in front of him, and just need a little hand to complete the job.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    Surely if the PMs career is truly in the LotO hands then his career is already finished.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,574
    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    You would need an electoral system that would allow that. Come back to reality Sean. UKIP will probably have less seats than the greens after the next election.

    The Holyrood electoral system was expressly designed to stop the SNP ever getting a referendum-demanding majority. It failed.

    No. It was designed to stop Labour ever getting a majority. It wasn't even considered that the SNP could - those central belt seats would always be Labour, wouldn't they?

  • If Ed Milliband backs Cameron on this referendum, then Cameron must surely be finished. Will Milliband pull the trigger, though?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    Why do our politicians not use the phone and SKYPE? Why don't they tele conference?

    That's not a politician thing. The technology for reasonable video conferencing has been around for ages (if not as easy and convenient as now), but most people don't like it. They put great faith in the human touch.

    Besides, visits like this aren't about acutally conferencing with other leaders, the details have to be hashed out by bureacrats well in advance, surely, so they could just do it by email. Meeting other leaders is a public relations exercise, that's all.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    If Ed Milliband backs Cameron on this referendum, then Cameron must surely be finished. Will Milliband pull the trigger, though?

    Why?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    DPJHodges If Labour were to agree to back referendum, and call for it this side of GE, David Cameron would be finished.


    Oh dear I agree with Hodges.

    Labour can finish Cameron's career tomorrow.
    But the Tories might replace him with someone who can win elections
    Well just look at how many gullible idiots believed Cammie over his flounce and his Cast iron referendum pledge.

    Of course little Ed could easily match the vapid cast iron commitment from Cammie on a conditional EU referendum precisely because it's so easily wriggled out and could be strung out indefinitely. He could even use all Cammie's excuses for doing so since they are already all there in place, "false choice" etc.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    On topic: I haven't gone through the full thread, so apologies if this point has already been made.

    I thought it would be interesting to compare with ICM a year ago:

    ICM/Guardian 2012-05-20 Con 36 Lab 41 LD 11 (UKIP not separately quoted AFAIK)
    ICM/Guardian 2013-05-12 Con 28 Lab 34 LD 11 UKIP 18

    So, if we believe ICM, the rise of UKIP over the last year has been accompanied by changes:

    Con -8
    Lab -7
    LD No change

    Thus, either it is simply not true that the rise of UKIP is disproportionately at the expense of the Tories, or it is true but it is compensated for by a swing from Labour to the Tories amongst non-UKIP supporters.

    Obviously you get slightly different figures depending on exactly which ICM poll you look at, but Labour leads of 5 to 8 points were typical in late spring/early summer last year - much the same as now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    It really is incredible to think Cameron could believe this latest strategem would work. I mean, he's not that dumb surely? He has to have some kind of alterior motive on this. If your enemies, external or particularly internal, are openly rebellious and contemptuous of you, logic might be that they will change their tune when you given them what they want, but it seems far more often the truth that they just become even more contemptuous because now they know they can beat you.
  • SeanT said:

    <blockquote


    I don't think Ed feels lucky, to be honest. He's pulling the trigger, but the safety is on.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,323

    GIN1138 said:

    Something else thats clear is that it looks like a dreadful decision for Cameron to be in the US while this is all going on.

    I said it would look bad and it does. Whenever a leader is out of country while a crisis is going on it always looks worse. The fact he is with the absurd Obama - Someone who didn't even bother to send one representative to Baroness Thatchers funeral - Just makes it all more surreal.

    Obama may be many things but absurd he is clearly not.

    I find him a very absurd, kind of weird character.

    He had all that airy fairy rhetoric at the start, but to me comes across as very aloof and his Presidency seems to be a case of spending 8 years going absolutely nowhere?

    Don't understand what all the hype is with him at all, or why our politicians and media degrade themselves by fawning all over him when he obviously hates their guts.

    I suppose we must be grateful that Cameron isn't quite as embarassing as Brown when it comes to Obamaworship, but even so that ain't saying much...

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    On topic: I haven't gone through the full thread, so apologies if this point has already been made.

    I thought it would be interesting to compare with ICM a year ago:

    ICM/Guardian 2012-05-20 Con 36 Lab 41 LD 11 (UKIP not separately quoted AFAIK)
    ICM/Guardian 2013-05-12 Con 28 Lab 34 LD 11UKIP 18

    So, if we believe ICM, the rise of UKIP over the last year has been accompanied by changes:

    Con -8
    Lab -7
    LD No change

    Thus, either it is simply not true that the rise of UKIP is disproportionately at the expense of the Tories, or it is true but it is compensated for by a swing from Labour to the Tories amongst non-UKIP supporters.

    Obviously you get slightly different figures depending on exactly which ICM poll you look at, but Labour leads of 5 to 8 points were typical in late spring/early summer last year - much the same as now.

    Or there is some swing from LibDem to UKIP and a simillar swing from Labour to LibDem and a smaller direct swing Labour to UKIP
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    DPJHodges For those asking, reason why Cam would be finished is because any referendum this side of GE and Cam would have to campaign to stay in.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    GIN1138 said:

    I find him a very absurd, kind of weird character.

    Compared to this guy?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFUUDrh9wNg

    *chuckles*

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,364
    Wait, I know Cameron's game now! He wants UKIP and the Torykippers to wear themselves out with impassioned rhetoric at a time of now elections, so that the size of the UKIP victory in 2014 is lessened as they will have played their hand too early and find it harder to engage with the public, while his internal enemies will have ostraxised themselves from him, leaving a loyal rump to rebuild from for 2015, knowing who his friends are.

    A brilliant and unconventional strategy. Worthy of George Osborne himself, I'd say.
  • philiph said:

    If Ed Milliband backs Cameron on this referendum, then Cameron must surely be finished. Will Milliband pull the trigger, though?

    Why?
    Because your man Cameron wants to stay in, and he'd have to campaign to stay in. He'll get slaughtered by his own party.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,323
    Mick_Pork said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I find him a very absurd, kind of weird character.

    Compared to this guy?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFUUDrh9wNg

    *chuckles*

    Well, I didn't mention the Republicans did I? They are even stranger. From what I could make out of the 2012 election Obama won because he slightly less odd than Mitt - OK, a LOT less odd than Mitt - but the whole US political system is pretty bizarre, IMO.

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    philiph said:

    Or there is some swing from LibDem to UKIP and a simillar swing from Labour to LibDem and a smaller direct swing Labour to UKIP

    Yes, but the net effect seems to be neutral, which doesn't quite fit the narrative.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    On topic: I haven't gone through the full thread, so apologies if this point has already been made.

    I thought it would be interesting to compare with ICM a year ago:

    ICM/Guardian 2012-05-20 Con 36 Lab 41 LD 11 (UKIP not separately quoted AFAIK)
    ICM/Guardian 2013-05-12 Con 28 Lab 34 LD 11UKIP 18

    So, if we believe ICM, the rise of UKIP over the last year has been accompanied by changes:

    Con -8
    Lab -7
    LD No change

    Thus, either it is simply not true that the rise of UKIP is disproportionately at the expense of the Tories, or it is true but it is compensated for by a swing from Labour to the Tories amongst non-UKIP supporters.

    Obviously you get slightly different figures depending on exactly which ICM poll you look at, but Labour leads of 5 to 8 points were typical in late spring/early summer last year - much the same as now.

    I've been making this point for some time. The only plausible point someone made in response, I think tim, was that essentially the number of people "voting" has gone up by the movement of 2010 voters from "not voting" to UKIP, augmented by 2010 non-voters. Thus the effect has been to move 2010 Tories to UKIP. Which is better for the Tories than them moving to Labour, but still not great.

    Still if you look at it that way, they should still be votes Labour gain rather than merely go to some third party.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    GIN1138 said:

    perdix said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Something else thats clear is thta it looks looking like a dreadful decision for Cameron to be in the US while this is all going on.

    I said it would look bad and it does. Whenever a leader is out of country while a crisis is going on it always looks worse. The fact he is with the absurd Obama - Someone who didn't even bother to send one representative to Baroness Thatchers funeral - Just makes it all more surreal.

    A prime minister can't put all foreign trips on hold just because there is some squabbling in the Westminster bubble. Nothing would ever get done in our relationships with other countries. These trips are normally planned well in advance of any political outbursts.

    What exactly is he doing in the US?

    Why do our politicians not use the phone and SKYPE? Why don't they tele conference?

    Cameron is doing several things in the US, like promoting British trade. That kind of thing needs the personal touch, not Skype. In any case he most likely would like to brief Obama in person about his visit with Putin. Some things may be better said privately, in person.
    The comments in the DT are very predictable... Obama is apparently a communist....

This discussion has been closed.