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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM sees Ukip double its April share to 18 percent
Farage’s party hits record high with any pollster
This evening ICM phone poll for the Guardian is the first survey we’ve had from any firm other than YouGov since Ukip performance in the May 2 local election.
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But is it here to stay?
That's good to know, that was my first reaction to this poll.
The harsh fact is that Con Lab, Lib are divided parties and are being punished by the voters.
UKIP is+9
Where have the other 3 gone? For "others" that would seem a pretty big move as well.
However, Grillo didn't need to keep his balls in the air for two years.
Lib-Dems at 11% with ICM is especially atrocious. Lets not forget that Ming was toast at 13%
But this is why the sands are shifting under Cameron. This is why someone as economically esteemed as Lord Lawson has said he would vote OUT and the UK could survive perfectly well outside the EU.
The political earth is moving under the political class. It's no good Cameron acting as though his party is being unreasonable and getting Obama to support him as though that will make any difference.
It was inevitable that one of the main response's to eurogeddon would be a huge rise in euroscepticism. It's happening. Cameron must start getting a grip or his leadership will not survive whats about to happen.
If UKIP does start to wobble where will the votes go? Now they are prised loose that may be very hard to predict.
When will @DPJHodges acknowledge the precision of Ed Miliband's 35% strategy? Only 1% off in the new ICM poll
If they aren't in first place next month then we can say they've stalled are going backwards.
"Labour's score of 34% is a miserable platform on which to build an election victory in 2015, and is its lowest since the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown's ejection from power in July 2010."
Are you guessing BNP gets the 3% or have you looked it up?
Really, on a 7% lead over the LibDumps? The model's broken.
He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath"
He's been the most credible lib dem on the media for quite some time. Of course that isn't saying too much but Farron is always out there when the other leadership hopefuls just don't seem to be in it.
Bar one.
Those who think Vince isn't interested just because the twit Gove waded in, should perhaps read this. Clegg still seems to be ensconced in a bubble insisting he's "still in the saddle" after the lib dems took yet another big hit on their base in the council elections, but that base knows what is happening and it's extremely unlikely they will be fine with the suicidal notion of a toxic Clegg leading the election campaign in 2015.
No doubt the Cameroon spinners are praying Clegg will lead the lib dems into the election considering all those lib dem tory battlegrounds.
I agree. Labour will be shockingly short-sighted if they drop 4% between polls and think they can rely on FPTP to see them through. The voters that defect now may well permanently change their voting patterns if they're not quickly persuaded back. That should worry all the big parties losing votes to UKIP.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/farage-factor-ukip-support-record
"ReluctantDissident
13 May 2013 6:09pm
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Terrifying: a Conservative/UKIP/BNP coalition in 2015, exit from the EU, rearmament, radical redistribution, end of the social contract and war by 2020, civil or otherwise."
The Tories need to talk about immigration and Europe more...
Yes. Go on calling UKIP voters "fairies". That approach is working wonders so far.
FPT Just a bit of alternate history, Socrates!
I'm undecided whether it should be full representation at Westminster, or a maybe a Austro-Hungarian style dual-monarchy.
Of course if I were King-Emperor, the British Empire/Commonwealth would be a fully democratic federation open to all English-speaking territories and even all territories liberated/occupied/administered by the UK and US throughout "real" history (yes, I have collated a list of them after several Wiki-browses!)
sincerely,
His Britanno-American Majesty, Emperor Sunil I.
Tories/UKIP 46% (+5)
Euroholics 45% (-8)
Ukip's support is in too much measure too broadly spread, whereas the LibDems now have clusters of concerntrated support that allows them to ride out a substantial decline in national support.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/dont-be-fooled-by-ukips-charm-it-is-xenophobic-and-creates-fear-8612768.html
"Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, an erstwhile City trader, the sort of chap millions of Britons have come to despise after the financial crash."
"The ugly truth is that Farage and his gang are encouraging the hatred of the outsider, blaming them for all ills, just as the BNP and NF did in their time. "
"But they must know or need to know that some of the values and people attached to this party are xenophobic and deeply reactionary."
"Now politicians must find gumption and take on this malevolent force which is exploiting understandable public fears. Journalists, too, need to take Farage seriously and interrogate him as they do other politicians. The ultra-regressive Tea Party in the United States was seen off by incisive opponents. Ukip can and must be too."
"It is worth considering Crosby's experience with the Libertas campaign, which contested elections to the European parliament in 2009. The party was formed by the Ireland-based businessman Declan Ganley, who spearheaded the no vote in Ireland's referendum on the EU's Lisbon treaty in 2008. With Crosby's help, it fielded more than 500 candidates a year later. All but one failed"
Crosby advised them to be ever more Eurosceptic in their posturing. Remind you of anything?
It's hard not to conclude those who were delighted with Cammie banging on about immigration, welfare and Europe are complete idiots.
At least there is plenty more time for the tories to bang on about them.
Baroness Timsis Back!
I did say if UKIP did well here tim would call all non labour voters racist
We are the proles and the Inner party dont like it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5w4ylfQycM
But you know you’ve touched a raw nerve when you start being denounced in the official annals. On Friday a Nationalist MSP from Glasgow, Bill Kidd, introduced a motion at Holyrood proposing:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/05/trident-the-snp-shoots-the-messenger/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=trident-the-snp-shoots-the-messenger&utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_campaign=18f9a010b8-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b70c7aec0a-18f9a010b8-50043421
"The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?"
2+2=5
2+2=5
2+2=5
2+2=5
2+2=5
2+2=5
It would be interesitng to know how many of the UKIP backers actually voted in 2010.
and why not ? You have more chance of a pledge getting met by the fairies than the PPE crowd. Since what the big 3 say isn't what they mean, what use is a manifesto anyway ?
The general public have had enough of these sneering cock-wombles telling them what to do.
"UKIP are just about hatred and dividing people. Besides, Farage is one of those bastard banker types."
On the other hand I heard the self confessed political anorak Diane James the other day, and although just a tad charmless, you could see she was more than capable of withstanding tough questioning
And Labour's policies are...?
Exactly.
Maybe I've got this wrong and EdMs right. Since the big 3 routinely break their manifesto pledges maybe not bothering to have any is the way to go.
Only John Major can save them now. ;^ )
Using mental gymnastics like that you could convince yourself that voters are hugely motivated by anything you care to mention, if you wanted to.
Concern about the NHS is related to the decline in bee populations.
Keeping rEd out of a debate would add 5% to the Labour vote.
All Milliband has to do is remind a couple of % of the labour/kipper swingers of some of the more right wing policies espoused by the kippers - et voila. Big majority.
This wasn't:
1987 General Election.
Labour in Scotland, 1.25m votes = 50 seats.
Alliance in England, 6.25m votes = 10 seats.
Can they, yes. Will they, the negotiations will certainly be interesting.
Even The Guardian, which can usually be relied upon to put the best spin possible on things for Labour, calls it a "miserable" poll for Labour.
And this is on the back of an incredibly lacklustre local election campaign for Labour.
Ed Miliband is no good. That may be the deciding factor over everything else in 2015....
But UKIP should not get complacent: there is a heck of a long way for them to go; not just in time, but also to get a good number of bums on seats in the HoC. Local organisation is key, as is getting over the hurdle that prevents people from voting in the same manner at a GE as they did in local or European elections.
This might be a bubble and deflate in a few months, or it may be the start of something much bigger.
Not being particularly aligned to any one party, I'm relishing this. It's going to be a really interesting couple of years.
I must admit, the policy of UKIP's I particularly like is the flat tax. It would be very good for me. And what pensioner can help but like their policy of a citizens pension for all, regardless of their circumstance. OGH would do very well out of that.
Lower taxes, higher spending, and a reduced deficit. What's not to like?
@BBCNormanS: Labour sources confirm Labour will vote against EU referendum amendment on wed
in 2008, 2 years prior to the General election, the Tories were on 41, and Labour were on 27
It is - of course - worth pointing out that the country at the heart of the Eurozone, Germany, is not suffering from the debilitating effects of the Euro. Its unemployment is at a 20 year low, and it runs a large trade surplus.
That isn't to say that Spain and Ireland haven't been hammered by the Euro, but it is odd to say that if we left the EU we'd be able to get to trade surplus with China, when Germany has clearly not been hampered either by the EU or the Euro in achieving selfsame.
I suspect the same can happen to UKIP. They can concentrate on the east coast, draft in their better people, use their Councillors as an activist base etc etc.
The only difference that I can see is that whereas the Lib Dems are natural pavement politicians UKIP on the other hand are natural pub bores. Not sure if the Kippers are up to the graft needed.
It will be interesting to see if the combination of four party politics and FPTP brings us a truly anomalous general election result at some point. If Labour were to win a majority on 30-33% of the vote, I would count that as decidedly unhealthy for democracy.
I'm not sure anyone has ever argued we'd get a trade surplus with China if we left.
I think Fat Ed would get a nasty shock in a head to head with Farage.
Alan Johnson is perfect in my view. He speaks, looks, acts and understands normal. Cruddas might be another. EdM would be a guaranteed disaster.
Tory Eurosceptics really are that gullible.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage offers to endorse Eurosceptic Tory MPs with his party's logo as a stamp of approval in the 2015 election
Anti-EU candidates can have two logos against name, UKIP leader says
Cameron's Washington trip overshadowed by questions about Brussels
Farage rules out full pact without a new Tory leader
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2323870/UKIP-leader-Nigel-Farage-offers-endorse-Eurosceptic-Tory-MPs-partys-logo-stamp-approval-2015-election.html
There'll be an increased demand from Labour for an examination of UKIP's policies. They'd better be careful we might notice Ed's blank sheet.
Do you still think you can control them, Ed and David?
He’s shaped like a giant pair of testicles, and holy cow is he terrifying.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/there-is-a-brazilian-mascot-for-testicular-cancer-named-mr-b
That would be you sunny.
I'm SNP and I've campaigned for them and will keep doing so. Who are you going to campaign for when you grow up Sunny? Tory or UKIP?
Still waiting.
Granted that was from 2% to 4%