Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.
Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.
If those percentages were repeated at the next election it would be the end of FPTP.
Why? This wasn't: 1987 General Election. Labour in Scotland, 1.25m votes = 50 seats. Alliance in England, 6.25m votes = 10 seats.
The press may take a slightly different line this time. It would not only be a majority Labour government on a miserable 34% of the vote, but also the LDs with 35 MPs and UKIP with none, despite the latter getting way more votes. That is completely and utterly beyond the pale.
I'll completely agree with you, depsite the fact we've just had a referendum on the voting system which under normal circumstances would silence the question for a generation we will need to revisit it pdq I think.
Possibly.
But, if Labour get a majority on a low vote share, then the UKIP "scared of the modern world" vote goes home to the Tories in opposition, who is going to make the case? A withering UKIP and a battered Lib Dems?
Oh dear Sunny. It's clear you are better suited to, ahem, working yourself into a frenzy over trains than politics, since it's not me who keeps answering differently when asked if you are you a UKIP supporter or a tory.
That would be you sunny.
I'm SNP and I've campaigned for them and will keep doing so. Who are you going to campaign for when you grow up Sunny? Tory or UKIP?
Still waiting.
Ha, if you're so SNP then why do you obsess about "Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?
You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!
OT and apologies to interrupt. But some debate re whether this an appropriate/correct/whatever use of FOI. I know little about it - can anyone clarify? (I thought FOI was for official records etc, rather than statements made by politicians in newspaper articles, as in this case...):
Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
True, but their outperformance goes back a long time and was maintained even when the D-Mark was excessively strong.
The UK actually has a very open, competitive economy - more so than the US in some ways, because they are still quite protectionist in their government procurement and in blocking acquisitions.
I suspect we're already getting most of the benefit from open competition, and we need to look elsewhere for improvement, most notably improving education, sorting out welfare policy, and attacking over-regulation and over-taxation.
If those percentages were repeated at the next election it would be the end of FPTP.
Why? This wasn't: 1987 General Election. Labour in Scotland, 1.25m votes = 50 seats. Alliance in England, 6.25m votes = 10 seats.
The press may take a slightly different line this time. It would not only be a majority Labour government on a miserable 34% of the vote, but also the LDs with 35 MPs and UKIP with none, despite the latter getting way more votes. That is completely and utterly beyond the pale.
Don't be so quick to write off UKIP's chances. Survation's crunching of the local election results gave UKIP 9 promising targets to work between now and the election, and Electoral Calculus suggests there is only a few points between UKIP getting a few seats, and UKIP getting a lot of seats.
Just a bit of alternate history, Socrates! I'm undecided whether it should be full representation at Westminster, or a maybe a Austro-Hungarian style dual-monarchy.
Of course if I were King-Emperor, the British Empire/Commonwealth would be a fully democratic federation open to all English-speaking territories and even all territories liberated/occupied/administered by the UK and US throughout "real" history (yes, I have collated a list of them after several Wiki-browses!)
sincerely,
His Britanno-American Majesty, Emperor Sunil I.
You have my vote. Well, as far as dictators need votes.
"Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?
You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!
I also noticed you still won't answer the question. Are you a tory or UKIP supporter sunny?
As for the stupidity of thinking not supporting the tories Cammie and Osbrowne means you are labour, how do you square that with your new party? (if indeed it is)
Although most people would like a say on Europe, there is no sense of urgency. Little more than one voter in every three (35%) demands an instant referendum, compared with 13% who are content to wait till general election day, and 30% who are happy to wait longer – until after David Cameron's promised renegotiation of membership. Some 14% say that the referendum should never take place at all.
Just before the prime minister's January speech, which first floated the prospect of an in/out plebiscite, ICM found a 51%-40% majority for quitting the EU. Far from rushing their leaders towards the door, voters have cooled on the idea since, and opinion is now almost evenly split: 43% say they would vote to quit, against a steady 40% who are inclined to stay in.
Since January there has actually been a four-point drop in the proportion saying they would definitely vote for Britain to leave the EU (a figure that now stands at 32%) and also in the proportion who would probably vote to leave (now 11%). Twice as many voters as before now say they are unsure about how they would vote – 17% as compared with 8% in January.
One problem for the main parties is that a proportion of the UKIP vote is for the NOTA party. Their policies won't matter much here - it's just a super protest.
Another chunk is the older, nostalgia vote - and that won't shift a lot either.
Even if the portion that listens carefully to financial and political argument do peel off, it may be a lot lower than many in the media think.
Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.
Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
German firms also just happen to be in a sweet spot, temporarily: they make the kind of high-end engineering, luxury cars, pharma, and quality machine tools which China can't copy - yet. Whereas firms in slightly lower tech Italy, France and Spain make stuff that China can copy, and therefore they have lost out.
But China (and other countries) will work out how to copy German goods, too, and make them cheaper, and then Germany will suffer, as well - though the branding of "made in Deutschland" will shield them to a certain extent.
It's also worth pointing out that German "success" is overstated. Germany is right now on the verge of recession and her workers have endured stagnant wages for years. Germany only looks "successful" compared to the economic euro basket cases that surround her.
Of course, the stuff that the Chinese and the Indians and other EMs will start to consume in huge amounts are the things the UK is good at: higher education, private healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, legal services. We need to do everything we can to penetrate those markets early before they reach maturation. That should mean free trade agreements to get rid of all these tariff barriers. It will take more than a decade for the protectionist EU to come round to this stuff, whereas individual countries can sort this out much quicker - see Iceland.
"Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?
You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!
I also noticed you still won't answer the question. Are you a tory or UKIP supporter sunny?
As for the stupidity of thinking not supporting the tories Cammie and Osbrowne means you are labour, how do you square that with your new party? (if indeed it is)
It is - of course - worth pointing out that the country at the heart of the Eurozone, Germany, is not suffering from the debilitating effects of the Euro. Its unemployment is at a 20 year low, and it runs a large trade surplus.
That isn't to say that Spain and Ireland haven't been hammered by the Euro, but it is odd to say that if we left the EU we'd be able to get to trade surplus with China, when Germany has clearly not been hampered either by the EU or the Euro in achieving selfsame.
Of course. As the prophet Nick Ridley warned the Euro is "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe"
To be fair to the Germans it's hardly their fault if they've kept wages down been efficient and worked hard. The problem is big chunks of the rest of Euroland were utterly feckless and didn't want to appreciate that sharing Germany's currency meant sharing responsibility too.
That said they are benefitting now except their customers of course in Euroland have maxed out the credit card, so how long will it last?
Again reform long term is not possible without addressing the glaring democratic defecit in Euroland ( and the EU ), and short term until Merkel's been ( presumably ) relected.
We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is. The locals proved that protest can turn into real votes as will the EU elections but MPs at westminster is the toughest of the three to crack.
Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.
Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
German firms also just happen to be in a sweet spot, temporarily: they make the kind of high-end engineering, luxury cars, pharma, and quality machine tools which China can't copy - yet. Whereas firms in slightly lower tech Italy, France and Spain make stuff that China can copy, and therefore they have lost out.
But China (and other countries) will work out how to copy German goods, too, and make them cheaper, and then Germany will suffer, as well - though the branding of "made in Deutschland" will shield them to a certain extent.
It's also worth pointing out that German "success" is overstated. Germany is right now on the verge of recession and her workers have endured stagnant wages for years. Germany only looks "successful" compared to the economic euro basket cases that surround her.
Of course, the stuff that the Chinese and the Indians and other EMs will start to consume in huge amounts are the things the UK is good at: higher education, private healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, legal services. We need to do everything we can to penetrate those markets early before they reach maturation. That should mean free trade agreements to get rid of all these tariff barriers. It will take more than a decade for the protectionist EU to come round to this stuff, whereas individual countries can sort this out much quicker - see Iceland.
Most of these services are unlikely to create jobs in Britain though.
We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is. The locals proved that protest can turn into real votes as will the EU elections but MPs at westminster is the toughest of the three to crack.
There's a by-election coming up in Aberdeen Donside. I expect UKIP to perform well.
According to that article ICM still don't prompt voters for UKIP (how long can they logically sustain this approach?)
That means 18% of voters are ignoring the prompted parties of Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, and replying with "UKIP" of their own volition.
In that light, this poll is even more extraordinary. It is probably underestimating UKIP support at an election (cf the polls failing to see UKIP's rise in the locals). At an election people will be able to see the word "UKIP" on a ballot, and they will remember that amusing Mister Farage.
UKIP might easily score over 20%, if we had a GE now.
The prompting has less to do with the ballot paper and more to do with the expectation of campaigning and media coverage. They may hang onto it for a good while to get a benchmark, keeping a question standard for comparability's sake is very very useful.
On the ICM I'd think we all need to see where we are after the Summer, to see if its a flash in the pan.Beyond that if ( huge if) we are still in this territory significantly post the Euro elections the very fact there's a 28/18 ish Tory/UKIP split will surely generate its own events within both parties as they are confronted with the really live possibility of PM Ed for 5 solid years on a third of the vote ( or less).
That would really bring the electoral system into question. Ed would've won fair and square but majority or not it won't be easy carrying the country through a difficult five years on that kind of support, especially as it would be barely above 30% in England.
According to that article ICM still don't prompt voters for UKIP (how long can they logically sustain this approach?)
That means 18% of voters are ignoring the prompted parties of Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, and replying with "UKIP" of their own volition.
In that light, this poll is even more extraordinary. It is probably underestimating UKIP support at an election (cf the polls failing to see UKIP's rise in the locals). At an election people will be able to see the word "UKIP" on a ballot, and they will remember that amusing Mister Farage.
UKIP might easily score over 20%, if we had a GE now.
The prompting has less to do with the ballot paper and more to do with the expectation of campaigning and media coverage. They may hang onto it for a good while to get a benchmark, keeping a question standard for comparability's sake is very very useful.
Sure. I can see the rationale behind ICM's approach; however I reckon it is, at the moment, leading people to under-estimate UKIP's actual support - see the recent by-elections and local elections.
If the UKIPalypse subsides, then ICM have no worries. But if the surge is sustained then ICM will HAVE to change - why exclude UKIP from prompting, but not the Lib Dems with barely half the support?
I have a lot of sympathy for pollsters, even before the UKIP surge, they are in extraordinary circumstances, with a coalition government, and it is difficult to get the various filters correctly.
Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.
Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.
Oooh. What's the magic to getting German family firms to sell equity? If you've truely figured out the answer, why are you wasting time here? You'd be making tens of millions of dollars broking deals.
Also, speaking as a member of a UK family with a couple of companies, we recut the equity every few years, bring in outside board members when needed, are very happy to share equity where it adds value (we do in 2 of the main companies and not in 1), form specific joint ventures to incentivise talented managers and even have a non-family CEO and Executive Group running the main business. Apart from that everything in your edit is correct...
Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.
Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
German firms also just happen to be in a sweet spot, temporarily: they make the kind of high-end engineering, luxury cars, pharma, and quality machine tools which China can't copy - yet. Whereas firms in slightly lower tech Italy, France and Spain make stuff that China can copy, and therefore they have lost out.
But China (and other countries) will work out how to copy German goods, too, and make them cheaper, and then Germany will suffer, as well - though the branding of "made in Deutschland" will shield them to a certain extent.
It's also worth pointing out that German "success" is overstated. Germany is right now on the verge of recession and her workers have endured stagnant wages for years. Germany only looks "successful" compared to the economic euro basket cases that surround her.
Of course, the stuff that the Chinese and the Indians and other EMs will start to consume in huge amounts are the things the UK is good at: higher education, private healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, legal services. We need to do everything we can to penetrate those markets early before they reach maturation. That should mean free trade agreements to get rid of all these tariff barriers. It will take more than a decade for the protectionist EU to come round to this stuff, whereas individual countries can sort this out much quicker - see Iceland.
Most of these services are unlikely to create jobs in Britain though.
All of them already do. Service exports are now a major part of our trade balance. Increased connectivity means a lot of this can be done through the internet, video conferencing and flights out to these places.
Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.
Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.
Oooh. What's the magic to getting German family firms to sell equity? If you've truely figured out the answer, why are you wasting time here? You'd be making tens of millions of dollars broking deals.
Also, speaking as a member of a UK family with a couple of companies, we recut the equity every few years, bring in outside board members when needed, are very happy to share equity where it adds value (we do in 2 of the main companies and not in 1), form specific joint ventures to incentivise talented managers and even have a non-family CEO and Executive Group running the main business. Apart from that everything in your edit is correct...
There's no magic answer. It's mainly cultural. However, a tough competitive environment is very effective at causing cultural change.
I was also speaking in generalities. Your sample size of two companies does not refute this. You obviously own some of the ones with better practices.
Interestingly, if you continue the swing to UKIP in Baxter beyond 18%, UKIP gain their first MP at 23% of the vote. This seat is
*drumroll*
Camborne and Redruth (Cornwall)
However, at less than 10% of the vote share, the Lib Dems continue to do well in the South West. They hold around 35 total seats in most scenarios, even as UKIP advances to the mid-20s.
An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.
For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.
Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?
As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.
However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.
Perhaps if the Westiminster canteen reduced the price of their oranges it would shake something loose?
Sorry??? That would be a reference to, what exactly?
Is there an MP with an orange fixation?
Memory tells me that a Conservative MP managed to kill himself while performing a peculiar form of masturbation that required choking, an orange/orange peel was involved somehow. Or perhaps memory is adding colour to the tale!
Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?
As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.
However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.
Perhaps if the Westiminster canteen reduced the price of their oranges it would shake something loose?
Sorry??? That would be a reference to, what exactly?
Is there an MP with an orange fixation?
Memory tells me that a Conservative MP managed to kill himself while performing a peculiar form of masturbation that required choking, an orange/orange peel was involved somehow. Or perhaps memory is adding colour to the tale!
Ah, yes. That was back in the John Major days was it not? No chance of history repeating itself there then. I don't think Cammie will be keen to go on a "back to basics" crusade but then who would have thought he would revert to John Major style banging on about Europe?
An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.
For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.
The SDP-Alliance vote turned out in the election. They just didn't win many seats.
Farage has had a free ride, there's a bonus waiting for the person who pricks his bubble. And Cameron will go nowhere near him.
I suppose in many ways Ed Balls is the man to give Farage a kicking, after all he's the man who kept Britiain out of the Euro and opposed British membership of the ERM when the Tories were in favour of it. And the recent poll suggests the public see him as a hard man.
Ed balls to give farage a kicking,balls can't even give Osborne a kicking.
Farage has had a free ride, there's a bonus waiting for the person who pricks his bubble. And Cameron will go nowhere near him.
I suppose in many ways Ed Balls is the man to give Farage a kicking, after all he's the man who kept Britiain out of the Euro and opposed British membership of the ERM when the Tories were in favour of it. And the recent poll suggests the public see him as a hard man.
Ed balls to give farage a kicking,balls can't even give Osborne a kicking.
Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.
One problem for the main parties is that a proportion of the UKIP vote is for the NOTA party. Their policies won't matter much here - it's just a super protest.
Another chunk is the older, nostalgia vote - and that won't shift a lot either.
Even if the portion that listens carefully to financial and political argument do peel off, it may be a lot lower than many in the media think.
The BBC and political class' version of inner city reality is a lie and has been for 40 years. 40 years ago maybe 1% of the population knew that whereas now it must be somewhere between 10% and 20% i guess. There's no point those people talking about it because the majority won't believe it while the BBC and political class maintain their fiction but that percentage has been sitting there like a dark pool for a long while wanting to put a finger in the eye of the political class for taking away their home.
That's just one element of the surge but the higher the main surge goes the more eye-pokers will come out of not voting and join in.
People need to look at the long term consequences of this. Labour aren't losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. Labour aren't suddenly losing Council seats in their heartlands. The Tories are.
So the Tories have more fronts to fight on and less members to do it.
An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.
For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.
You could have condensed that to "hmmm".
Yes, but how will I ever compete that first 50,000 word novel (or however many it's meant to be ?
Now, let's see "It was the best of polls, it was the worst of polls". Make it the opening line of a Tom Knox and you can't go wrong.
Hopefully a few more thousand Tory members will jump ship to UKIP
According to The Guardian write up, UKIP have converted 13% of 2010 Labour voters.
"Back in April, when Ukip were on 9% nationwide, 10% of Tory voters at the 2010 election had defected to Nigel Farage's party, compared with 2% of 2010 Labour voters and 8% of 2010 Lib Dems. The defection has now gathered pace: over a quarter of Cameron's 2010 backers, 27%, had switched to Ukip by May. Some 13% of 2010 Labour supporters have gone the same way, together with 12% of 2010 Lib Dems."
Hopefully a few more thousand Tory members will jump ship to UKIP
IOS , it looks like Labour is bleeding support to UKIP. Before very long UKIP could be the No.1 opposition party as Labour sinks under EdM's disastrous " No Referendum " pledge.
According to that article ICM still don't prompt voters for UKIP (how long can they logically sustain this approach?)
That means 18% of voters are ignoring the prompted parties of Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, and replying with "UKIP" of their own volition.
In that light, this poll is even more extraordinary. It is probably underestimating UKIP support at an election (cf the polls failing to see UKIP's rise in the locals). At an election people will be able to see the word "UKIP" on a ballot, and they will remember that amusing Mister Farage.
UKIP might easily score over 20%, if we had a GE now.
don't ICM always underrate UKIP??
The reaction to this poll on here has been fantastic
Nothing to see here!
smear smear smear
it's a flash in the pan!
those BNP voters must have got the hang of sorting out the low birth rate, they're 18% of the country now
Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.
Britain is an inspiration nation Germany is an organisation nation
Britain became a big deal through innovation. The problems started when that slowed down hence that's where the solution lies as well imo i.e. rewiring the education system and reversing the hippy/cultural marxist takeover that started in the 20s and 30s.
Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.
Britain is an inspiration nation Germany is an organisation nation
Very true.
Moreover, given all the angst on here about Germany out competing us, you'd expect the Krauts to be miles richer than the Brits. And yet, despite 5 years of British near- recession ...
To be fair a significant part of Germany did have to put up with the Soviets there for a few years. I am sure if it hadn't been for reunification costs the Germans would be a fair bit ahead.
I said members not voters. Labour is not losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. That is a long run indicator. This is poll is a short term one.
It may be a rough ride for Labour for a bit, but when the surge dies down. Labour won't have lost thousands and thousands of members and have another front to fight on.
Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.
I guess the theory that people mix up BNP and UKIP could be correct
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB In the ICM poll Ukip had 25% of men, 23% of pensioners and 27% of voters in the unskilled DE occupational grade.
Although it's possible that some of the UKIP vote may be people who set out to vote in 2009 and just got to the polling stations after stopping off along the way.
I said members not voters. Labour is not losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. That is a long run indicator. This is poll is a short term one.
It may be a rough ride for Labour for a bit, but when the surge dies down. Labour won't have lost thousands and thousands of members and have another front to fight on.
Your leader ,EdM , doesn't trust the British people with a vote on the EU. Why the hell should they give him their vote on anything seeing that he so despises them ?
I guess the theory that people mix up BNP and UKIP could be correct
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB In the ICM poll Ukip had 25% of men, 23% of pensioners and 27% of voters in the unskilled DE occupational grade.
Although it's possible that some of the UKIP vote may be people who set out to vote in 2009 and just got to the polling stations after stopping off along the way.
People need to look at the long term consequences of this. Labour aren't losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. Labour aren't suddenly losing Council seats in their heartlands. The Tories are.
So the Tories have more fronts to fight on and less members to do it.
Utter drivel. The stats show UKIP are taking CDE voters. Your core working class electors. If you aren't worried about this, you are a cretin.
Keep taking the Complacency Pills, and watch Britain swing hard to the right even as you burble contentedly.
Labour are worried hence the Milliband nonsense about not ruling out a referendum, the Vaz show and now apparently the Ed Balls the scourge of Farage, lol. Is this the same Labour party that gave us no referendum on the european consti...ooh sorry treaty of Lisbon, gave up the rebate and years and years of tedious spin about red lines.
I think there may just be a tiny credibility gap here somewhere.
You and whose army? They way I look at this poll UKIP have no seats and Labour has a majority. You simply have no capacity to win a majority. UKIP have only just started to work out how to run local elections yet alone a national general election.
Then you need members who will knock on doors. Labour have them in their tens of thousands. The Tories have hardly any and the ones they do have they are losing to UKIP.
That is what decides elections. Members and ground work.
Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.
Yes, well done. You will always rule in Stockport. Clutch that thought close to your tender heart as the country votes to bring back the lash, send asylum seekers to the workhouse, and make bear-baiting obligatory in primary schools.
Pedant point, Stockport Council is/was ruled by the Lib Dems, who are now the largest party.
That was completly off the point which I made. But if you don't want to vote Labour then don't.
We win a majority on this poll. Something no other party can do in the UK
Labour's membership numbers are as reliable as Labour's economic and voter statistics. I imagine many members come from one bedroom flats housing two dozen committed Labour activists.
Many things are noteworthy in that poll (I've not checked the thread so I imagine they've been covered already). The Conservatives on 28 might look awful, but they're only 6 points behind Labour. UKIP should be delighted with this result with a pollster who has typically had them lower than the other pollsters.
On the plus side for the Lib Dems, they could be 11 points lower.
Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.
Britain is an inspiration nation Germany is an organisation nation
Or maybe our culture has changed a lot since the Victorian age. I suspect the German approach to work and saving is more similar to Victorian Britain than we are.
Comments
EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.
But, if Labour get a majority on a low vote share, then the UKIP "scared of the modern world" vote goes home to the Tories in opposition, who is going to make the case? A withering UKIP and a battered Lib Dems?
You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/details_of_surveys_underpinning
The UK actually has a very open, competitive economy - more so than the US in some ways, because they are still quite protectionist in their government procurement and in blocking acquisitions.
I suspect we're already getting most of the benefit from open competition, and we need to look elsewhere for improvement, most notably improving education, sorting out welfare policy, and attacking over-regulation and over-taxation.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_UKIP.html
At least the trains will run on time!
Save your seat.
Yougov had the Lib Dems move from 18% to 30% between 5th and 25th September 2003 .
As for the stupidity of thinking not supporting the tories Cammie and Osbrowne means you are labour, how do you square that with your new party? (if indeed it is)
So does that mean you and Farage are labour supporters? Ha, indeed.
• Potential effect on general election hard to predict
• Tories suffer, but Labour and Lib Dems also hit
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented?CMP=twt_fd
Just before the prime minister's January speech, which first floated the prospect of an in/out plebiscite, ICM found a 51%-40% majority for quitting the EU. Far from rushing their leaders towards the door, voters have cooled on the idea since, and opinion is now almost evenly split: 43% say they would vote to quit, against a steady 40% who are inclined to stay in.
Since January there has actually been a four-point drop in the proportion saying they would definitely vote for Britain to leave the EU (a figure that now stands at 32%) and also in the proportion who would probably vote to leave (now 11%). Twice as many voters as before now say they are unsure about how they would vote – 17% as compared with 8% in January.
Ace comparison: tracking @guardian_clark VI simult's Wisdom Index. Also sharp drop for Con 28%, Lab 32%, but LD on 15.5%. UKIP 15%
One problem for the main parties is that a proportion of the UKIP vote is for the NOTA party. Their policies won't matter much here - it's just a super protest.
Another chunk is the older, nostalgia vote - and that won't shift a lot either.
Even if the portion that listens carefully to financial and political argument do peel off, it may be a lot lower than many in the media think.
I was going off a Paddy Ashdown interview from a few months ago, saying the Lib Dems current polling is nothing.
When he first became leader, their Vote share was closer to 0% than to 1%
"Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981"
Unprecedented since last time, then. You can hardly expect new political forces to come and go much quicker.
Calm down, dear! Calm down!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6810/comment-page-1
That said they are benefitting now except their customers of course in Euroland have maxed out the credit card, so how long will it last?
Again reform long term is not possible without addressing the glaring democratic defecit in Euroland ( and the EU ), and short term until Merkel's been ( presumably ) relected.
Nick Clegg in government is polling better than Ming did in opposition.
That would really bring the electoral system into question. Ed would've won fair and square but majority or not it won't be easy carrying the country through a difficult five years on that kind of support, especially as it would be barely above 30% in England.
As we say in Yorkshire, it's all fart and no follow through.
However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.
Also, speaking as a member of a UK family with a couple of companies, we recut the equity every few years, bring in outside board members when needed, are very happy to share equity where it adds value (we do in 2 of the main companies and not in 1), form specific joint ventures to incentivise talented managers and even have a non-family CEO and Executive Group running the main business. Apart from that everything in your edit is correct...
UKIP upto 18% (+9) but in the same poll EU out/in poll is 43/40, which is a 3 point lead, but down 9% since Jan
Sorry??? That would be a reference to, what exactly?
Is there an MP with an orange fixation?
I was also speaking in generalities. Your sample size of two companies does not refute this. You obviously own some of the ones with better practices.
An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.
For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.
A former MP for Eastleigh Stephen Milligan.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/the-death-of-an-mp-eastleigh-tories-remember-a-nice-guy-constituency-1392872.html
Whatever happened to that majority of 17,000+?
But Ed M has nicked the soapbox.
Huhne's release may even have merited a thread today were it not for the continuing tory UKIP convulsions.
Talking
About
Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983
Perhaps he's right.
But did 'the market' of six years ago predict a banking collapse, the worst financial crisis for a century and a European economic depression ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22255521
A round of applause for the recall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20626604
At least the soapbox had some utility.
That just makes it look like they are waiting for a passing forklift to haul little Ed away.
Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.
Breakthroughs require inspiration, continuing success requires organisation.
Britain is an inspiration nation
Germany is an organisation nation
Hopefully a few more thousand Tory members will jump ship to UKIP
Sadly, I found out this evening my local shop has banned me (again). They've even got my mugshot behind the counter.
Time for a new disguise.
That's just one element of the surge but the higher the main surge goes the more eye-pokers will come out of not voting and join in.
So the Tories have more fronts to fight on and less members to do it.
Now, let's see "It was the best of polls, it was the worst of polls". Make it the opening line of a Tom Knox and you can't go wrong.
"Back in April, when Ukip were on 9% nationwide, 10% of Tory voters at the 2010 election had defected to Nigel Farage's party, compared with 2% of 2010 Labour voters and 8% of 2010 Lib Dems. The defection has now gathered pace: over a quarter of Cameron's 2010 backers, 27%, had switched to Ukip by May. Some 13% of 2010 Labour supporters have gone the same way, together with 12% of 2010 Lib Dems."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented
Our membership levels are stable. The Tories is the one falling.
More and more time.
The reaction to this poll on here has been fantastic
Nothing to see here!
smear smear smear
it's a flash in the pan!
those BNP voters must have got the hang of sorting out the low birth rate, they're 18% of the country now
To be fair a significant part of Germany did have to put up with the Soviets there for a few years. I am sure if it hadn't been for reunification costs the Germans would be a fair bit ahead.
Who wants to bet UKIP poll 18% or more in the GE and get no seats at Even money.
If they don't get 18% then bets are void
I said members not voters. Labour is not losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. That is a long run indicator. This is poll is a short term one.
It may be a rough ride for Labour for a bit, but when the surge dies down. Labour won't have lost thousands and thousands of members and have another front to fight on.
I SAID MEMBERS
Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.
If the Labour Party is one of the bad debts at The Co-Op Bank...
Put your money where yours and Warsis mouths are
I think there may just be a tiny credibility gap here somewhere.
God,I wish the Euro elections were this year ;-)
That was completly off the point which I made. But if you don't want to vote Labour then don't.
We win a majority on this poll. Something no other party can do in the UK
The Co-op group has £3billion of assets. It will be fine.
When you get the lefties leave smearing the tories to smear ukip,you know you have made the big time ;-)
You and whose army? They way I look at this poll UKIP have no seats and Labour has a majority. You simply have no capacity to win a majority. UKIP have only just started to work out how to run local elections yet alone a national general election.
Then you need members who will knock on doors. Labour have them in their tens of thousands. The Tories have hardly any and the ones they do have they are losing to UKIP.
That is what decides elections. Members and ground work.
You think if ukip get 18% of the vote in 2015 they will fail to win a seat, put your money where your mouth is
Any amount you like at EVS, bets void if they poll less than 18%
Labour's membership numbers are as reliable as Labour's economic and voter statistics. I imagine many members come from one bedroom flats housing two dozen committed Labour activists.
Many things are noteworthy in that poll (I've not checked the thread so I imagine they've been covered already). The Conservatives on 28 might look awful, but they're only 6 points behind Labour. UKIP should be delighted with this result with a pollster who has typically had them lower than the other pollsters.
On the plus side for the Lib Dems, they could be 11 points lower.
Labour has the structure to fight a general election successfully. Which is why Labour will win 300 + seats and UKIP won't pick up 3.