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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM sees Ukip double its April share to 18 percent

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  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013

    Socrates said:

    Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

    Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
    Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.

    EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Pulpstar said:

    If those percentages were repeated at the next election it would be the end of FPTP.

    Why?
    This wasn't:
    1987 General Election.
    Labour in Scotland, 1.25m votes = 50 seats.
    Alliance in England, 6.25m votes = 10 seats.

    The press may take a slightly different line this time. It would not only be a majority Labour government on a miserable 34% of the vote, but also the LDs with 35 MPs and UKIP with none, despite the latter getting way more votes. That is completely and utterly beyond the pale.
    I'll completely agree with you, depsite the fact we've just had a referendum on the voting system which under normal circumstances would silence the question for a generation we will need to revisit it pdq I think.
    Possibly.

    But, if Labour get a majority on a low vote share, then the UKIP "scared of the modern world" vote goes home to the Tories in opposition, who is going to make the case? A withering UKIP and a battered Lib Dems?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Mick_Pork said:

    Pork is a Labour pig who periodically smears on some SNP lipstick.

    Amusing stuff from a self proclaimed fascist.
    Pork , keep on campaigning for the SNP. It'll help the other parties.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Mick_Pork said:

    Evening Micky
    :)

    Oh dear Sunny. It's clear you are better suited to, ahem, working yourself into a frenzy over trains than politics, since it's not me who keeps answering differently when asked if you are you a UKIP supporter or a tory.

    That would be you sunny.

    I'm SNP and I've campaigned for them and will keep doing so. Who are you going to campaign for when you grow up Sunny? Tory or UKIP?


    Still waiting.

    :)

    Ha, if you're so SNP then why do you obsess about "Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?

    You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!

    :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Lucky the poll was taken before Jacob Rees Mogg assumed the Tony Marlow roll for the Tories. Who breaks a butterfly on a wheel now!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Pulpstar said:

    Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

    Yeah the Lib Dems in 1989.

    Granted that was from 2% to 4%
    "LibDems - Doubling Here!"
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Pieter Scholtz ‏@BusCoachSA

    News Update Cameron faces growing party splits over EU - Up to 100 eurosceptic Conservative MPs are expected to ba... http://ow.ly/2wPhMa
    Back to the future.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    OT and apologies to interrupt. But some debate re whether this an appropriate/correct/whatever use of FOI. I know little about it - can anyone clarify? (I thought FOI was for official records etc, rather than statements made by politicians in newspaper articles, as in this case...):

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/details_of_surveys_underpinning
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Socrates said:

    Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.

    True, but their outperformance goes back a long time and was maintained even when the D-Mark was excessively strong.

    The UK actually has a very open, competitive economy - more so than the US in some ways, because they are still quite protectionist in their government procurement and in blocking acquisitions.

    I suspect we're already getting most of the benefit from open competition, and we need to look elsewhere for improvement, most notably improving education, sorting out welfare policy, and attacking over-regulation and over-taxation.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    If those percentages were repeated at the next election it would be the end of FPTP.

    Why?
    This wasn't:
    1987 General Election.
    Labour in Scotland, 1.25m votes = 50 seats.
    Alliance in England, 6.25m votes = 10 seats.

    The press may take a slightly different line this time. It would not only be a majority Labour government on a miserable 34% of the vote, but also the LDs with 35 MPs and UKIP with none, despite the latter getting way more votes. That is completely and utterly beyond the pale.
    Don't be so quick to write off UKIP's chances. Survation's crunching of the local election results gave UKIP 9 promising targets to work between now and the election, and Electoral Calculus suggests there is only a few points between UKIP getting a few seats, and UKIP getting a lot of seats.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_UKIP.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Oops caught out by thread change

    FPT

    Socrates said:

    What is the Potomac Compromise?

    Just a bit of alternate history, Socrates!
    I'm undecided whether it should be full representation at Westminster, or a maybe a Austro-Hungarian style dual-monarchy.

    Of course if I were King-Emperor, the British Empire/Commonwealth would be a fully democratic federation open to all English-speaking territories and even all territories liberated/occupied/administered by the UK and US throughout "real" history (yes, I have collated a list of them after several Wiki-browses!)

    sincerely,

    His Britanno-American Majesty, Emperor Sunil I.
    You have my vote. Well, as far as dictators need votes.

    At least the trains will run on time!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Con Mps should do individual deals with Ukip.

    Save your seat.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited May 2013

    Pulpstar said:

    Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

    Yeah the Lib Dems in 1989.

    Granted that was from 2% to 4%


    Yougov had the Lib Dems move from 18% to 30% between 5th and 25th September 2003 .

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    "Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?

    You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!

    :)

    I also noticed you still won't answer the question. Are you a tory or UKIP supporter sunny?

    As for the stupidity of thinking not supporting the tories Cammie and Osbrowne means you are labour, how do you square that with your new party? (if indeed it is)
    UKIP ‏@UKIP

    Farage: I cannot trust Mr Cameron, and, I would suggest, nor can anybody else. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10041502/Nigel-Lawson-calls-time-on-the-three-pint-Eurosceptic-heroes.html
    So does that mean you and Farage are labour supporters? Ha, indeed.

    :)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981

    • Potential effect on general election hard to predict
    • Tories suffer, but Labour and Lib Dems also hit

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented?CMP=twt_fd
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Although most people would like a say on Europe, there is no sense of urgency. Little more than one voter in every three (35%) demands an instant referendum, compared with 13% who are content to wait till general election day, and 30% who are happy to wait longer – until after David Cameron's promised renegotiation of membership. Some 14% say that the referendum should never take place at all.

    Just before the prime minister's January speech, which first floated the prospect of an in/out plebiscite, ICM found a 51%-40% majority for quitting the EU. Far from rushing their leaders towards the door, voters have cooled on the idea since, and opinion is now almost evenly split: 43% say they would vote to quit, against a steady 40% who are inclined to stay in.

    Since January there has actually been a four-point drop in the proportion saying they would definitely vote for Britain to leave the EU (a figure that now stands at 32%) and also in the proportion who would probably vote to leave (now 11%). Twice as many voters as before now say they are unsure about how they would vote – 17% as compared with 8% in January.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Martin Boon ‏@martinboon 1m

    Ace comparison: tracking @guardian_clark VI simult's Wisdom Index. Also sharp drop for Con 28%, Lab 32%, but LD on 15.5%. UKIP 15%
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    One problem for the main parties is that a proportion of the UKIP vote is for the NOTA party. Their policies won't matter much here - it's just a super protest.

    Another chunk is the older, nostalgia vote - and that won't shift a lot either.

    Even if the portion that listens carefully to financial and political argument do peel off, it may be a lot lower than many in the media think.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Pulpstar said:

    Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

    Yeah the Lib Dems in 1989.

    Granted that was from 2% to 4%


    Yougov had the Lib Dems move from 18% to 30% between 5th and 25th September 2003 .

    Thanks.

    I was going off a Paddy Ashdown interview from a few months ago, saying the Lib Dems current polling is nothing.

    When he first became leader, their Vote share was closer to 0% than to 1%
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    TSE

    "Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981"

    Unprecedented since last time, then. You can hardly expect new political forces to come and go much quicker.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Grandiose said:

    TSE

    "Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981"

    Unprecedented since last time, then. You can hardly expect new political forces to come and go much quicker.

    Unprecedented since the Greens in 1989.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

    Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
    Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
    German firms also just happen to be in a sweet spot, temporarily: they make the kind of high-end engineering, luxury cars, pharma, and quality machine tools which China can't copy - yet. Whereas firms in slightly lower tech Italy, France and Spain make stuff that China can copy, and therefore they have lost out.

    But China (and other countries) will work out how to copy German goods, too, and make them cheaper, and then Germany will suffer, as well - though the branding of "made in Deutschland" will shield them to a certain extent.

    It's also worth pointing out that German "success" is overstated. Germany is right now on the verge of recession and her workers have endured stagnant wages for years. Germany only looks "successful" compared to the economic euro basket cases that surround her.
    Of course, the stuff that the Chinese and the Indians and other EMs will start to consume in huge amounts are the things the UK is good at: higher education, private healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, legal services. We need to do everything we can to penetrate those markets early before they reach maturation. That should mean free trade agreements to get rid of all these tariff barriers. It will take more than a decade for the protectionist EU to come round to this stuff, whereas individual countries can sort this out much quicker - see Iceland.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Mick_Pork said:

    "Cammie" and "Osbrowne" like some Labour Party apparatchik like our tim? Hmmm?

    You will notice that my avatar hasn't changed since the Local Elections, Micky!

    :)

    I also noticed you still won't answer the question. Are you a tory or UKIP supporter sunny?

    As for the stupidity of thinking not supporting the tories Cammie and Osbrowne means you are labour, how do you square that with your new party? (if indeed it is)
    UKIP ‏@UKIP

    Farage: I cannot trust Mr Cameron, and, I would suggest, nor can anybody else. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10041502/Nigel-Lawson-calls-time-on-the-three-pint-Eurosceptic-heroes.html
    So does that mean you and Farage are labour supporters? Ha, indeed.

    :)



    Calm down, dear! Calm down!

    :)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

    Isn't this just ICM catching up with the other pollsters?

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/6810/comment-page-1
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2013

    rcs1000 said:

    @Socrates,

    It is - of course - worth pointing out that the country at the heart of the Eurozone, Germany, is not suffering from the debilitating effects of the Euro. Its unemployment is at a 20 year low, and it runs a large trade surplus.

    That isn't to say that Spain and Ireland haven't been hammered by the Euro, but it is odd to say that if we left the EU we'd be able to get to trade surplus with China, when Germany has clearly not been hampered either by the EU or the Euro in achieving selfsame.

    Of course. As the prophet Nick Ridley warned the Euro is "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe"
    To be fair to the Germans it's hardly their fault if they've kept wages down been efficient and worked hard. The problem is big chunks of the rest of Euroland were utterly feckless and didn't want to appreciate that sharing Germany's currency meant sharing responsibility too.

    That said they are benefitting now except their customers of course in Euroland have maxed out the credit card, so how long will it last?

    Again reform long term is not possible without addressing the glaring democratic defecit in Euroland ( and the EU ), and short term until Merkel's been ( presumably ) relected.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is. The locals proved that protest can turn into real votes as will the EU elections but MPs at westminster is the toughest of the three to crack.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Pulpstar said:

    Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

    Yeah the Lib Dems in 1989.

    Granted that was from 2% to 4%


    Yougov had the Lib Dems move from 18% to 30% between 5th and 25th September 2003 .

    Thanks.

    I was going off a Paddy Ashdown interview from a few months ago, saying the Lib Dems current polling is nothing.

    When he first became leader, their Vote share was closer to 0% than to 1%
    Yeah, we also hit 12% under Ming, not sure if we rebounded quite that fast though.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

    Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
    Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
    German firms also just happen to be in a sweet spot, temporarily: they make the kind of high-end engineering, luxury cars, pharma, and quality machine tools which China can't copy - yet. Whereas firms in slightly lower tech Italy, France and Spain make stuff that China can copy, and therefore they have lost out.

    But China (and other countries) will work out how to copy German goods, too, and make them cheaper, and then Germany will suffer, as well - though the branding of "made in Deutschland" will shield them to a certain extent.

    It's also worth pointing out that German "success" is overstated. Germany is right now on the verge of recession and her workers have endured stagnant wages for years. Germany only looks "successful" compared to the economic euro basket cases that surround her.
    Of course, the stuff that the Chinese and the Indians and other EMs will start to consume in huge amounts are the things the UK is good at: higher education, private healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, legal services. We need to do everything we can to penetrate those markets early before they reach maturation. That should mean free trade agreements to get rid of all these tariff barriers. It will take more than a decade for the protectionist EU to come round to this stuff, whereas individual countries can sort this out much quicker - see Iceland.
    Most of these services are unlikely to create jobs in Britain though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    corporeal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

    Yeah the Lib Dems in 1989.

    Granted that was from 2% to 4%


    Yougov had the Lib Dems move from 18% to 30% between 5th and 25th September 2003 .

    Thanks.

    I was going off a Paddy Ashdown interview from a few months ago, saying the Lib Dems current polling is nothing.

    When he first became leader, their Vote share was closer to 0% than to 1%
    Yeah, we also hit 12% under Ming, not sure if we rebounded quite that fast though.
    Just how crap was Ming?

    Nick Clegg in government is polling better than Ming did in opposition.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Mick_Pork said:

    We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is. The locals proved that protest can turn into real votes as will the EU elections but MPs at westminster is the toughest of the three to crack.

    There's a by-election coming up in Aberdeen Donside. I expect UKIP to perform well.

  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SeanT said:

    Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981

    • Potential effect on general election hard to predict
    • Tories suffer, but Labour and Lib Dems also hit

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented?CMP=twt_fd

    According to that article ICM still don't prompt voters for UKIP (how long can they logically sustain this approach?)

    That means 18% of voters are ignoring the prompted parties of Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, and replying with "UKIP" of their own volition.

    In that light, this poll is even more extraordinary. It is probably underestimating UKIP support at an election (cf the polls failing to see UKIP's rise in the locals). At an election people will be able to see the word "UKIP" on a ballot, and they will remember that amusing Mister Farage.

    UKIP might easily score over 20%, if we had a GE now.
    The prompting has less to do with the ballot paper and more to do with the expectation of campaigning and media coverage. They may hang onto it for a good while to get a benchmark, keeping a question standard for comparability's sake is very very useful.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is.

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Pulpstar said:

    Has any party of the major parties ever doubled their % in a month ?

    Yeah the Lib Dems in 1989.

    Granted that was from 2% to 4%


    Yougov had the Lib Dems move from 18% to 30% between 5th and 25th September 2003 .

    Ginger-gasm?

    :)

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited May 2013
    On the ICM I'd think we all need to see where we are after the Summer, to see if its a flash in the pan.Beyond that if ( huge if) we are still in this territory significantly post the Euro elections the very fact there's a 28/18 ish Tory/UKIP split will surely generate its own events within both parties as they are confronted with the really live possibility of PM Ed for 5 solid years on a third of the vote ( or less).

    That would really bring the electoral system into question. Ed would've won fair and square but majority or not it won't be easy carrying the country through a difficult five years on that kind of support, especially as it would be barely above 30% in England.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    corporeal said:

    Yeah, we also hit 12% under Ming, not sure if we rebounded quite that fast though.

    And how did the 2010 general election campaign go with Ming as leader? ;)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Mick_Pork said:

    We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is.

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

    Mr Hancock has been reported to be vacating Portsmouth South for over two years now.

    As we say in Yorkshire, it's all fart and no follow through.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Mick_Pork said:

    We need another by-election to see just how solid this polling surge is.

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

    Not by Mr Hancock
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

    As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.

    However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    If this polling continues, there's no way Dave will want to trigger a by-election, Poor Andrew Mitchell, he might not be our new man in Bruxelles.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    SeanT said:

    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:

    Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981

    • Potential effect on general election hard to predict
    • Tories suffer, but Labour and Lib Dems also hit

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented?CMP=twt_fd

    According to that article ICM still don't prompt voters for UKIP (how long can they logically sustain this approach?)

    That means 18% of voters are ignoring the prompted parties of Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, and replying with "UKIP" of their own volition.

    In that light, this poll is even more extraordinary. It is probably underestimating UKIP support at an election (cf the polls failing to see UKIP's rise in the locals). At an election people will be able to see the word "UKIP" on a ballot, and they will remember that amusing Mister Farage.

    UKIP might easily score over 20%, if we had a GE now.
    The prompting has less to do with the ballot paper and more to do with the expectation of campaigning and media coverage. They may hang onto it for a good while to get a benchmark, keeping a question standard for comparability's sake is very very useful.

    Sure. I can see the rationale behind ICM's approach; however I reckon it is, at the moment, leading people to under-estimate UKIP's actual support - see the recent by-elections and local elections.

    If the UKIPalypse subsides, then ICM have no worries. But if the surge is sustained then ICM will HAVE to change - why exclude UKIP from prompting, but not the Lib Dems with barely half the support?
    I have a lot of sympathy for pollsters, even before the UKIP surge, they are in extraordinary circumstances, with a coalition government, and it is difficult to get the various filters correctly.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

    As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.

    However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.
    Perhaps if the Westiminster canteen reduced the price of their oranges it would shake something loose?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

    Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
    Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.

    EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.
    Oooh. What's the magic to getting German family firms to sell equity? If you've truely figured out the answer, why are you wasting time here? You'd be making tens of millions of dollars broking deals.

    Also, speaking as a member of a UK family with a couple of companies, we recut the equity every few years, bring in outside board members when needed, are very happy to share equity where it adds value (we do in 2 of the main companies and not in 1), form specific joint ventures to incentivise talented managers and even have a non-family CEO and Executive Group running the main business. Apart from that everything in your edit is correct...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

    Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
    Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.
    German firms also just happen to be in a sweet spot, temporarily: they make the kind of high-end engineering, luxury cars, pharma, and quality machine tools which China can't copy - yet. Whereas firms in slightly lower tech Italy, France and Spain make stuff that China can copy, and therefore they have lost out.

    But China (and other countries) will work out how to copy German goods, too, and make them cheaper, and then Germany will suffer, as well - though the branding of "made in Deutschland" will shield them to a certain extent.

    It's also worth pointing out that German "success" is overstated. Germany is right now on the verge of recession and her workers have endured stagnant wages for years. Germany only looks "successful" compared to the economic euro basket cases that surround her.
    Of course, the stuff that the Chinese and the Indians and other EMs will start to consume in huge amounts are the things the UK is good at: higher education, private healthcare, pharmaceuticals, banking, legal services. We need to do everything we can to penetrate those markets early before they reach maturation. That should mean free trade agreements to get rid of all these tariff barriers. It will take more than a decade for the protectionist EU to come round to this stuff, whereas individual countries can sort this out much quicker - see Iceland.
    Most of these services are unlikely to create jobs in Britain though.
    All of them already do. Service exports are now a major part of our trade balance. Increased connectivity means a lot of this can be done through the internet, video conferencing and flights out to these places.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Mike's pointed something out to me.

    UKIP upto 18% (+9) but in the same poll EU out/in poll is 43/40, which is a 3 point lead, but down 9% since Jan
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

    As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.

    However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.
    Perhaps if the Westiminster canteen reduced the price of their oranges it would shake something loose?


    Sorry??? That would be a reference to, what exactly?

    Is there an MP with an orange fixation?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Better management practices and higher productivity are most driven by higher competition with other high productivity firms. LSE have done some great work on this. The most productive firms in the world are those in the US. Thus the best way UK firms can have their productivity boosted is for them to be exposed to open competition with USA. To do that we have to get a genuinely expansive EU-US trade deal, which won't happen because the French will nix it, or to join NAFTA.

    Whilst that sounds sensible enough in one sense, it's hard to reconcile with European experience. Are German firms exposed to competition more than British firms are? Rather the reverse, surely?
    Of course, there are other factors at play. As mentioned, Germany is benefitting from an overvalue currency and huge capital inflows seeking safety.

    EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.
    Oooh. What's the magic to getting German family firms to sell equity? If you've truely figured out the answer, why are you wasting time here? You'd be making tens of millions of dollars broking deals.

    Also, speaking as a member of a UK family with a couple of companies, we recut the equity every few years, bring in outside board members when needed, are very happy to share equity where it adds value (we do in 2 of the main companies and not in 1), form specific joint ventures to incentivise talented managers and even have a non-family CEO and Executive Group running the main business. Apart from that everything in your edit is correct...
    There's no magic answer. It's mainly cultural. However, a tough competitive environment is very effective at causing cultural change.

    I was also speaking in generalities. Your sample size of two companies does not refute this. You obviously own some of the ones with better practices.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Interestingly, if you continue the swing to UKIP in Baxter beyond 18%, UKIP gain their first MP at 23% of the vote. This seat is

    *drumroll*

    Camborne and Redruth (Cornwall)

    However, at less than 10% of the vote share, the Lib Dems continue to do well in the South West. They hold around 35 total seats in most scenarios, even as UKIP advances to the mid-20s.

    Where is AV when the right need it?

    Some of us advocated for it at the time.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    Evening all :)

    An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.

    The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.

    For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    lolz, 2nd one with a 5 pts to overlap
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

    As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.

    However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.
    Perhaps if the Westiminster canteen reduced the price of their oranges it would shake something loose?


    Sorry??? That would be a reference to, what exactly?

    Is there an MP with an orange fixation?
    Memory tells me that a Conservative MP managed to kill himself while performing a peculiar form of masturbation that required choking, an orange/orange peel was involved somehow. Or perhaps memory is adding colour to the tale!

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Isn't Mr Hancock expected to vacate Portsmouth South?

    As well waiting on Nigel Evans and Ribble Valley since both are pure speculation.

    However, with two years to go there is fairly good chance there will be a by-election triggered by something in that gap.
    Perhaps if the Westiminster canteen reduced the price of their oranges it would shake something loose?


    Sorry??? That would be a reference to, what exactly?

    Is there an MP with an orange fixation?
    Memory tells me that a Conservative MP managed to kill himself while performing a peculiar form of masturbation that required choking, an orange/orange peel was involved somehow. Or perhaps memory is adding colour to the tale!

    Ah, yes. That was back in the John Major days was it not? No chance of history repeating itself there then. I don't think Cammie will be keen to go on a "back to basics" crusade but then who would have thought he would revert to John Major style banging on about Europe? ;)

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited May 2013
    @anotherDave

    A former MP for Eastleigh Stephen Milligan.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/the-death-of-an-mp-eastleigh-tories-remember-a-nice-guy-constituency-1392872.html

    Whatever happened to that majority of 17,000+?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @mick_pork

    But Ed M has nicked the soapbox.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    dr_spyn said:

    @anotherDave

    A former MP for Eastleigh Stephen Milligan.

    Eastleigh is fast becoming quite the cursed seat.

    Huhne's release may even have merited a thread today were it not for the continuing tory UKIP convulsions.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Fops have gone and cocked this strategy up.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Keep
    Talking
    About
    Europe
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.

    The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.

    For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.

    The SDP-Alliance vote turned out in the election. They just didn't win many seats.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    So Bob Smithson's confidence that there is no risk to electricity supplies is based upon 'the market'.

    Perhaps he's right.

    But did 'the market' of six years ago predict a banking collapse, the worst financial crisis for a century and a European economic depression ?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    dr_spyn said:

    @mick_pork

    But Ed M has nicked the soapbox.

    I think it was half a pallet if memory serves. Standards are indeed slipping when you can't even get a decent soapbox to campaign on. ;)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    @Southam

    Farage has had a free ride, there's a bonus waiting for the person who pricks his bubble.
    And Cameron will go nowhere near him.

    I suppose in many ways Ed Balls is the man to give Farage a kicking, after all he's the man who kept Britiain out of the Euro and opposed British membership of the ERM when the Tories were in favour of it.
    And the recent poll suggests the public see him as a hard man.

    Ed balls to give farage a kicking,balls can't even give Osborne a kicking.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    tim said:

    @Southam

    Farage has had a free ride, there's a bonus waiting for the person who pricks his bubble.
    And Cameron will go nowhere near him.

    I suppose in many ways Ed Balls is the man to give Farage a kicking, after all he's the man who kept Britiain out of the Euro and opposed British membership of the ERM when the Tories were in favour of it.
    And the recent poll suggests the public see him as a hard man.

    Ed balls to give farage a kicking,balls can't even give Osborne a kicking.

    Ed " I'll say it again " Balls ;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20626604
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    dr_spyn said:
    LOL

    At least the soapbox had some utility.

    That just makes it look like they are waiting for a passing forklift to haul little Ed away.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Re Britain v Germany productivity etc

    Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.

    Breakthroughs require inspiration, continuing success requires organisation.

    Britain is an inspiration nation
    Germany is an organisation nation
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    It's a very very good poll for UKIP.

    Hopefully a few more thousand Tory members will jump ship to UKIP
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2013
    On topic - Ladbrokes' 4/7 on UKIP outpolling the tories in the Euros looks a steal. 57% return in a year.

    Sadly, I found out this evening my local shop has banned me (again). They've even got my mugshot behind the counter.

    Time for a new disguise.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    CD13 said:


    One problem for the main parties is that a proportion of the UKIP vote is for the NOTA party. Their policies won't matter much here - it's just a super protest.

    Another chunk is the older, nostalgia vote - and that won't shift a lot either.

    Even if the portion that listens carefully to financial and political argument do peel off, it may be a lot lower than many in the media think.

    The BBC and political class' version of inner city reality is a lie and has been for 40 years. 40 years ago maybe 1% of the population knew that whereas now it must be somewhere between 10% and 20% i guess. There's no point those people talking about it because the majority won't believe it while the BBC and political class maintain their fiction but that percentage has been sitting there like a dark pool for a long while wanting to put a finger in the eye of the political class for taking away their home.

    That's just one element of the surge but the higher the main surge goes the more eye-pokers will come out of not voting and join in.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    People need to look at the long term consequences of this. Labour aren't losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. Labour aren't suddenly losing Council seats in their heartlands. The Tories are.

    So the Tories have more fronts to fight on and less members to do it.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IOS said:

    It's a very very good poll for UKIP.

    Hopefully a few more thousand Tory members will jump ship to UKIP

    And labour by looks of it.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,927
    SeanT said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    An excellent poll for UKIP - no question - and a real fillip for their supporters. Conversely, a poor poll for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. Labour may comfort themselves that in the unlikely event of these numbers being repeated in May 2015, Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister with a significant majority.

    The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoyed 59% in 2010 - that is now 39% but with UKIP gainoing far more than Labour and that offers both more than a crumb of comfort. As others have said, we've been here before when the Alliance was polling 30% in the mid-80s and the incumbent Government was in third place. Yet at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder, the "protest vote" melted away. It was only with the significant direct movement from Conservative to Labour from 1993 onward that the shape of the 1997 landslide became apparent. The move is only slightly to Labour which suggests some of this UKIP can be won back by the Coalition parties.

    For all that UKIP supporters talk of their party changing the landscape, we simply don't know what will happen in May 2015. It will be interesting to see, for example, how UKIP polls after the summer holidays with a couple of months of rather less exposure for Nigel Farage. At the moment, though, UKIP is riding high and that's fine. In politics, one poll does not make a beakthrough and as far as 2015 is concerned, it's still all to play for.

    You could have condensed that to "hmmm".
    Yes, but how will I ever compete that first 50,000 word novel (or however many it's meant to be ?

    Now, let's see "It was the best of polls, it was the worst of polls". Make it the opening line of a Tom Knox and you can't go wrong.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    IOS said:

    It's a very very good poll for UKIP.

    Hopefully a few more thousand Tory members will jump ship to UKIP

    According to The Guardian write up, UKIP have converted 13% of 2010 Labour voters.

    "Back in April, when Ukip were on 9% nationwide, 10% of Tory voters at the 2010 election had defected to Nigel Farage's party, compared with 2% of 2010 Labour voters and 8% of 2010 Lib Dems. The defection has now gathered pace: over a quarter of Cameron's 2010 backers, 27%, had switched to Ukip by May. Some 13% of 2010 Labour supporters have gone the same way, together with 12% of 2010 Lib Dems."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tyke.

    Our membership levels are stable. The Tories is the one falling.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2013
    IOS said:

    It's a very very good poll for UKIP.

    Hopefully a few more thousand Tory members will jump ship to UKIP

    IOS , it looks like Labour is bleeding support to UKIP. Before very long UKIP could be the No.1 opposition party as Labour sinks under EdM's disastrous " No Referendum " pledge.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Of course the consequence of this is the Tories will end up spending more time talking about Europe.

    More and more time.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    SeanT said:

    Ukip surge in polls unprecedented since creation of the SDP in 1981

    • Potential effect on general election hard to predict
    • Tories suffer, but Labour and Lib Dems also hit

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/13/ukip-surge-polls-unprecedented?CMP=twt_fd

    According to that article ICM still don't prompt voters for UKIP (how long can they logically sustain this approach?)

    That means 18% of voters are ignoring the prompted parties of Clegg, Cameron and Miliband, and replying with "UKIP" of their own volition.

    In that light, this poll is even more extraordinary. It is probably underestimating UKIP support at an election (cf the polls failing to see UKIP's rise in the locals). At an election people will be able to see the word "UKIP" on a ballot, and they will remember that amusing Mister Farage.

    UKIP might easily score over 20%, if we had a GE now.
    don't ICM always underrate UKIP??

    The reaction to this poll on here has been fantastic

    Nothing to see here!

    smear smear smear

    it's a flash in the pan!

    those BNP voters must have got the hang of sorting out the low birth rate, they're 18% of the country now
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Good luck keeping UKIP out the debates by the way.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Re Britain v Germany productivity etc

    Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.

    Breakthroughs require inspiration, continuing success requires organisation.

    Britain is an inspiration nation
    Germany is an organisation nation

    Britain became a big deal through innovation. The problems started when that slowed down hence that's where the solution lies as well imo i.e. rewiring the education system and reversing the hippy/cultural marxist takeover that started in the 20s and 30s.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IOS said:

    Good luck keeping UKIP out the debates by the way.

    The way things are going,it's the lib dems who should be worried about a place at the debates ;-)

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    SeanT said:

    Re Britain v Germany productivity etc

    Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.

    Breakthroughs require inspiration, continuing success requires organisation.

    Britain is an inspiration nation
    Germany is an organisation nation

    Very true.

    Moreover, given all the angst on here about Germany out competing us, you'd expect the Krauts to be miles richer than the Brits. And yet, despite 5 years of British near- recession ...

    German GDP per capita: $41k

    British GDP per capita: $39k

    Basically the same.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
    Ah, that post-war Anglo-American "guidance" after ze war!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    IOS said:

    Good luck keeping UKIP out the debates by the way.

    The way things are going,it's the lib dems who should be worried about a place at the debates ;-)

    Only if they still have Clegg as leader. Under that circumstance they would probably welcome getting booted from them. ;)

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    To be fair a significant part of Germany did have to put up with the Soviets there for a few years. I am sure if it hadn't been for reunification costs the Germans would be a fair bit ahead.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    edited May 2013
    Gotta love the parliamentary seats projections here too... How quaint!

    Who wants to bet UKIP poll 18% or more in the GE and get no seats at Even money.

    If they don't get 18% then bets are void
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Moniker

    I said members not voters. Labour is not losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. That is a long run indicator. This is poll is a short term one.

    It may be a rough ride for Labour for a bit, but when the surge dies down. Labour won't have lost thousands and thousands of members and have another front to fight on.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    I SAID MEMBERS

    Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @IOS

    If the Labour Party is one of the bad debts at The Co-Op Bank...
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @Sam

    The BNP + UKIP vote is steady at 22% since 2009

    I guess the theory that people mix up BNP and UKIP could be correct

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
    In the ICM poll Ukip had 25% of men, 23% of pensioners and 27% of voters in the unskilled DE occupational grade.

    Although it's possible that some of the UKIP vote may be people who set out to vote in 2009 and just got to the polling stations after stopping off along the way.

    UKIP heartlands scene

    http://www.alamy.com/thumbs/6/{F4263D1C-1F25-4C08-BEC0-9A2260AFB750}/AE3MAJ.jpg

    give it up Baroness they didn't get 22% of the vote at the 2010 GE!!!!!

    Put your money where yours and Warsis mouths are
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    IOS said:

    Moniker

    I said members not voters. Labour is not losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. That is a long run indicator. This is poll is a short term one.

    It may be a rough ride for Labour for a bit, but when the surge dies down. Labour won't have lost thousands and thousands of members and have another front to fight on.

    Your leader ,EdM , doesn't trust the British people with a vote on the EU. Why the hell should they give him their vote on anything seeing that he so despises them ?

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    tim said:

    @Sam

    The BNP + UKIP vote is steady at 22% since 2009

    I guess the theory that people mix up BNP and UKIP could be correct

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
    In the ICM poll Ukip had 25% of men, 23% of pensioners and 27% of voters in the unskilled DE occupational grade.

    Although it's possible that some of the UKIP vote may be people who set out to vote in 2009 and just got to the polling stations after stopping off along the way.

    UKIP heartlands scene

    http://www.alamy.com/thumbs/6/{F4263D1C-1F25-4C08-BEC0-9A2260AFB750}/AE3MAJ.jpg

    Wow Tim, you really do dislike poor and old people don't you...
  • InMyHumOpInMyHumOp Posts: 16
    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    People need to look at the long term consequences of this. Labour aren't losing members to UKIP. The Tories are. Labour aren't suddenly losing Council seats in their heartlands. The Tories are.

    So the Tories have more fronts to fight on and less members to do it.

    Utter drivel. The stats show UKIP are taking CDE voters. Your core working class electors. If you aren't worried about this, you are a cretin.

    Keep taking the Complacency Pills, and watch Britain swing hard to the right even as you burble contentedly.
    Labour are worried hence the Milliband nonsense about not ruling out a referendum, the Vaz show and now apparently the Ed Balls the scourge of Farage, lol. Is this the same Labour party that gave us no referendum on the european consti...ooh sorry treaty of Lisbon, gave up the rebate and years and years of tedious spin about red lines.

    I think there may just be a tiny credibility gap here somewhere.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    It will be interesting to see how hard ukip hits the labour vote when the next set of council elections are held in mainly labour area's.

    God,I wish the Euro elections were this year ;-)
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Moniker.

    That was completly off the point which I made. But if you don't want to vote Labour then don't.


    We win a majority on this poll. Something no other party can do in the UK
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Dr Spyn

    The Co-op group has £3billion of assets. It will be fine.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ukip have made it.

    When you get the lefties leave smearing the tories to smear ukip,you know you have made the big time ;-)
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    You and whose army? They way I look at this poll UKIP have no seats and Labour has a majority. You simply have no capacity to win a majority. UKIP have only just started to work out how to run local elections yet alone a national general election.

    Then you need members who will knock on doors. Labour have them in their tens of thousands. The Tories have hardly any and the ones they do have they are losing to UKIP.


    That is what decides elections. Members and ground work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    I SAID MEMBERS

    Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.

    Yes, well done. You will always rule in Stockport. Clutch that thought close to your tender heart as the country votes to bring back the lash, send asylum seekers to the workhouse, and make bear-baiting obligatory in primary schools.
    Pedant point, Stockport Council is/was ruled by the Lib Dems, who are now the largest party.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    @tim

    You think if ukip get 18% of the vote in 2015 they will fail to win a seat, put your money where your mouth is

    Any amount you like at EVS, bets void if they poll less than 18%
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    IOS said:

    Moniker.

    That was completly off the point which I made. But if you don't want to vote Labour then don't.


    We win a majority on this poll. Something no other party can do in the UK


    Labour's membership numbers are as reliable as Labour's economic and voter statistics. I imagine many members come from one bedroom flats housing two dozen committed Labour activists.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Good evening, everyone.

    Many things are noteworthy in that poll (I've not checked the thread so I imagine they've been covered already). The Conservatives on 28 might look awful, but they're only 6 points behind Labour. UKIP should be delighted with this result with a pollster who has typically had them lower than the other pollsters.

    On the plus side for the Lib Dems, they could be 11 points lower.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013

    Re Britain v Germany productivity etc

    Maybe the attributes that allowed Britain to be the birth of the industrial and scientific revolutions are just different to those needed in mature economies.

    Breakthroughs require inspiration, continuing success requires organisation.

    Britain is an inspiration nation
    Germany is an organisation nation

    Or maybe our culture has changed a lot since the Victorian age. I suspect the German approach to work and saving is more similar to Victorian Britain than we are.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Ha Moniker you are howling at the moon aren't you.

    Labour has the structure to fight a general election successfully. Which is why Labour will win 300 + seats and UKIP won't pick up 3.
This discussion has been closed.