Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM sees Ukip double its April share to 18 percent

135

Comments

  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    @tim

    You think if ukip get 18% of the vote in 2015 they will fail to win a seat, put your money where your mouth is

    Any amount you like at EVS, bets void if they poll less than 18%

    I'll have £100.
    It'll be voided anyway.

    UKIP Vote Share Percentage At Next General Election
    UKIP Special

    Under 8%
    evens

    8% or over
    8/11

    You'll be all over that then

    Done

    I wouldn't pay on at 8/11 for two years but that is a terrible price

    Rather back between 10-20% at 13/8

    I'm on 10%+ at 6/4 with you boys, let battle commence
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,397
    Pong said:

    On topic - Ladbrokes' 4/7 on UKIP outpolling the tories in the Euros looks a steal. 57% return in a year.

    Sadly, I found out this evening my local shop has banned me (again). They've even got my mugshot behind the counter.

    Time for a new disguise.

    That's 4/7 has been around for a while, Pong.

    In fact the poll seems to have left the markets unmoved. It seems to me that punters are underestimate the UKIP surge and in addition to the bet you are pointing out, they must be sensational value to take a seat at the GE - 6/4 with Lads and Corals (who do not yet have your mug shot.)

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2013
    OGH "According to Electoral Calculus tonight's ICM poll would see LAB 359, CON 228, LD 35, Ukip 0 seats. A LAB majority of 68."

    These forecasts of the Lib Dems holding onto more than half their seats even though their vote share has halved, does seem questionable to me. At GE2015, some 12 of their current MPs will be 65+. It is therefore very conceivable that 10 of their MPs will stand down, so no incumbency there. Add in the massive decline in Scotland and the defection of voters to Labour and losses of circa 30 seem possible. Of course it has to be modelled, maybe one cold night I will do that.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SeanT

    Yes I know you're a Tory. I say again. You and who's army? You can't win a majority and UKIP will probably end up with less seats than the Greens.

    You think things would be different without the Lib Dems in power? Nah. Not at all. You just blame the coalition cos you would like things to be different.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @Sam

    And we're on that UKIP don't win the white vote in London at next year locals for £200 as well aren't we.
    Have to ask Mike and PtP to referee that, I'm happy to go with their conclusion on whether we have reliable data, i assume you are


    It's the white British vote not just white

    Yes I'll trust the ombudsmen!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,397
    @Morris

    Saw you Raikkonnen tip this morning and helped myself.

    Surely a case of the punters overlooking the quiet man?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Yes I know you're a Tory. I say again. You and who's army? You can't win a majority and UKIP will probably end up with less seats than the Greens.

    You think things would be different without the Lib Dems in power? Nah. Not at all. You just blame the coalition cos you would like things to be different.

    If they can flip the Tories while still retaining a decent chunk of the Labour and ex Labour vote then they could win outright - easily. Obviously that's not likely to happen but the possibility is there if they can hold position in the right spot.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Yes I know you're a Tory. I say again. You and who's army? You can't win a majority and UKIP will probably end up with less seats than the Greens.

    You think things would be different without the Lib Dems in power? Nah. Not at all. You just blame the coalition cos you would like things to be different.

    Dolt.

    I'm not a Tory OR a kipper. See my many comments dissing Cameron, passim
    TBH dissing Cameron is almost a qualification to be a Tory MP these days. Not sure it rules you out.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @IOS

    "Labour wont have another front to fight on"

    Is that your formal announcement of withdrawal from contention in Cornwall?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Punter, it technically wasn't a tip, but I do think the odds are deranged.

    However, if Pirelli *do* significantly alter the tyres it would probably penalise Lotus, help Red Bull and (to a lesser extent) help Mercedes and perhaps harm Ferrari. Worth paying attention to that.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Mr Jones.

    There is no way. You won't win MPs without a ground campaign. The right in this country has no way of winning a majority at the moment.

    The only way is for the Tories to elect an immigration loving, gay supporting 50p tax hiking pro climate change moderate.

    And then for the whinging whining UKIPers to man up and vote for them
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013

    Mr. Punter, it technically wasn't a tip, but I do think the odds are deranged.

    However, if Pirelli *do* significantly alter the tyres it would probably penalise Lotus, help Red Bull and (to a lesser extent) help Mercedes and perhaps harm Ferrari. Worth paying attention to that.

    We really do need to thank Pirelli for their contribution to an exciting F1 season.

    84 pit stops yesterday was hilarious

    Edit: There was talk pre race that it would be worth backing Mercedes to win at Monaco, what do you think?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 59s

    BREAKING: David Cameron is going to ram a law through Parliament to enforce an In/Out EU referendum - defying Labour and Libs to block it.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    IOS said:

    Mr Jones.

    There is no way. You won't win MPs without a ground campaign. The right in this country has no way of winning a majority at the moment.

    The only way is for the Tories to elect an immigration loving, gay supporting 50p tax hiking pro climate change moderate.

    And then for the whinging whining UKIPers to man up and vote for them

    If they flip the Tories they'll have the Tory party's ground campaigners. It's basically what could have happened in 2010 if the Cameroons had had a clue (except praps more so as Ukip's name may be less toxic up north). Like i say - not very likely but possible.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2013
    Charles said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:



    EDIT: Also, German family firms benefit from hiring in external managers and getting knowledgeable investors to buy equity stakes and give advice. The US is similar. UK family companies have a mad loathing to never give away equity, preferring to rely on bank loans the whole time. They also always appoint their kids to run the place, which is another example of the lack meritocracy in this country.

    Oooh. What's the magic to getting German family firms to sell equity? If you've truely figured out the answer, why are you wasting time here? You'd be making tens of millions of dollars broking deals.
    There's no magic answer. It's mainly cultural. However, a tough competitive environment is very effective at causing cultural change.

    I was also speaking in generalities. Your sample size of two companies does not refute this. You obviously own some of the ones with better practices.
    No sh1t, Sherlock!

    I spend my life trying to persuade family shareholders in German companies to sell and it is very very rare. It's a good reason, in fact, why many German industrial companies are better than ours: they remain family owned and take a long-term view, while in the UK there is all too much willingness to sell early

    My main family company =is in the business of staying close to family-owned businesses and activities. It gives us pretty good insight - our attitudes are not that rare.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Yes I know you're a Tory. I say again. You and who's army? You can't win a majority and UKIP will probably end up with less seats than the Greens.

    You think things would be different without the Lib Dems in power? Nah. Not at all. You just blame the coalition cos you would like things to be different.

    Dolt.

    I'm not a Tory OR a kipper. See my many comments dissing Cameron, passim
    TBH dissing Cameron is almost a qualification to be a Tory MP these days. Not sure it rules you out.
    I'd like to point pb-ers to my noting, a coupla days ago, that Jamie Oliver had all-but-endorsed UKIP in The Times.

    Say what you like about Jamie, he has his finger on the G Spot of British public opinion.

    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.
    You must have read a different interview to the one I read

    In a wide-ranging interview with The Sunday Times, Oliver, who employs thousands of people, attacked prisoner reforms, suggested that school meals were not being funded properly and said that although he did not support UKIP he loved the fact that the party was “stirring it up”.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Eagles, I heard such talk during practice (I hope they get McNish back for more commentary).

    Monaco is much like sector 3 of Spain, apparently:
    http://www.formula1.com/results/season/2013/897/7298/best_sector_times.html

    We can see that the Mercedes is about two to three tenths faster than everyone else. So, a 1-2 in qualifying is eminently possible. But their tyre management is terrible.

    However, degradation in Monaco will be less significant and it's a perfect track for using the cars to bunch up the field, as it's nigh on impossible to pass. I'm tempted by Mercedes-related bets, to be honest. Haven't made any yet, though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Mr Dancer, thank you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900
    AV.
    Tories.
    UKIP...

    Only a heart of stone could fail to laugh.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 1m

    See BBC TV 10 news for more from nick r on BREAKING Cameron plan to try to force Tory law through commons to enable uk in EU referendum.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    robindbrant See BBC TV 10 news for more from nick r on BREAKING Cameron plan to try to force Tory law through commons to enable uk in EU referendum.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IOS said:

    SeanT

    I SAID MEMBERS

    Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.

    But how many of those members will renew when Unite isn't paying their membership fee?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Another reason I'm glad I don't live in France, as I'm an apple whore.

    France preparing tax on Apple and Google to fund culture

    France is preparing to impose taxes on Apple and Google to finance the production of art, films and music in the country, in a move likely to worsen relations between business and Francois Hollande’s socialist government.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/electronics/10054717/France-preparing-tax-on-Apple-and-Google-to-fund-culture.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Yes I know you're a Tory. I say again. You and who's army? You can't win a majority and UKIP will probably end up with less seats than the Greens.

    You think things would be different without the Lib Dems in power? Nah. Not at all. You just blame the coalition cos you would like things to be different.

    Dolt.

    I'm not a Tory OR a kipper. See my many comments dissing Cameron, passim
    TBH dissing Cameron is almost a qualification to be a Tory MP these days. Not sure it rules you out.
    I'd like to point pb-ers to my noting, a coupla days ago, that Jamie Oliver had all-but-endorsed UKIP in The Times.

    Say what you like about Jamie, he has his finger on the G Spot of British public opinion.

    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.
    You'll enjoy this...

    http://youtu.be/f3qcgAQGbEI
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Yes I know you're a Tory. I say again. You and who's army? You can't win a majority and UKIP will probably end up with less seats than the Greens.

    You think things would be different without the Lib Dems in power? Nah. Not at all. You just blame the coalition cos you would like things to be different.

    Dolt.

    I'm not a Tory OR a kipper. See my many comments dissing Cameron, passim
    TBH dissing Cameron is almost a qualification to be a Tory MP these days. Not sure it rules you out.
    I'd like to point pb-ers to my noting, a coupla days ago, that Jamie Oliver had all-but-endorsed UKIP in The Times.

    Say what you like about Jamie, he has his finger on the G Spot of British public opinion.

    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.
    You must have read a different interview to the one I read

    In a wide-ranging interview with The Sunday Times, Oliver, who employs thousands of people, attacked prisoner reforms, suggested that school meals were not being funded properly and said that although he did not support UKIP he loved the fact that the party was “stirring it up”.
    If only you knew the power of the Dark Purple Side!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    BBCPolitics Lord Ahmed resigns from Labour Party bbc.in/17mBxu4
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    chrisshipitv BREAKING: Tories go it alone with legislation on EU. PARTY (not GOVERNMENT) will publish draft legislation Tues to guarantee 2017 referendum 38 seconds ago · reply · retweet · favorite

    michaelsavage Let the number crunching begin - are there enough EU referendum supporters to pass the new law? And how will Labour respond? #EUBill
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IOS said:

    Dr Spyn

    The Co-op group has £3billion of assets. It will be fine.

    Not if it's liabilities are greater than £3bn.

    Because then it would be trading while insolvent. And the Directors would be breaking the law. And a nice fluffy organisation affiliated with the Labour party wouldn't break the law. Would they?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Paywall

    A favourite for a safe Labour seat pulled out last night after claims of a trade union “stitch-up”.

    Karie Murphy, who was supported by Unite, Ed Miliband’s biggest union donor, said that she would not be taking part in the selection process for Falkirk, which has been dogged by accusations of foul play before it has started.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Gay Marriage and Europe in the commons over and over again, that'll solve the Tory problems

    Be funny if Labour and the Lib Dems called Cameron's bluff and put a 2014 date on Daves referendum.

    It would be funny and great for people like me,go for it.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    Yes I know you're a Tory. I say again. You and who's army? You can't win a majority and UKIP will probably end up with less seats than the Greens.

    You think things would be different without the Lib Dems in power? Nah. Not at all. You just blame the coalition cos you would like things to be different.

    Dolt.

    I'm not a Tory OR a kipper. See my many comments dissing Cameron, passim
    TBH dissing Cameron is almost a qualification to be a Tory MP these days. Not sure it rules you out.
    I'd like to point pb-ers to my noting, a coupla days ago, that Jamie Oliver had all-but-endorsed UKIP in The Times.

    Say what you like about Jamie, he has his finger on the G Spot of British public opinion.

    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.
    You must have read a different interview to the one I read

    In a wide-ranging interview with The Sunday Times, Oliver, who employs thousands of people, attacked prisoner reforms, suggested that school meals were not being funded properly and said that although he did not support UKIP he loved the fact that the party was “stirring it up”.
    If only you knew the power of the Dark Purple Side!
    Is it the lagershed yet?

    Do you know the difference between pink and purple?

    The grip.

    Boom tish
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    patrickwintour Reports>Cameron will publish draft in out referendum bill tomorrow for pick up by Tory backbenchers, and press LDs to give government time
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Charles

    Do you honestly believe this? I mean do you honestly think Unite are paying people to join?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Johnno, very dangerous for them to try that.

    Same year as a Scottish referendum would make timing absolutely critical. Even if it happened before the Caledonian referendum it would massively highlight a significant Anglo-Scottish dividing line.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    DPJHodges The Queen is looking at Prince Philip right now and saying "That bloody speech. Why did I bother'

    LOL
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
    Eh, at the end of the day Palpatine earned his reign of terror; he put so much work into it, I cannot begrudge him that.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The Lib-Dems had an In/Out referendum as a manifesto commitment at the last election. How can they possibly block one now?

    Or is a Lib Dem manifesto not worth the paper it's printed on?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
    Mace Windu, like Master Yoda was so crap and inept, I mean they didn't even notice a Sith Lord right under their noses.

    That's the sort of mistake I'd expect from Hannibal or Ed Miliband
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    IOS said:

    SeanT

    I SAID MEMBERS

    Labour membership is just about static at 200k. We aren't losing members. And we didn't as far as I can see end up losing significant council seats in our heartlands like the North West.

    But how many of those members will renew when Unite isn't paying their membership fee?

    You don't really understand do you Charles
    Please expand on your argument.

    200K members is like being the tallest midget in the room. They are all crap.

    The RSPB has 195,000 youth members for goodness sake.

    Labour, as the main opposition party and the inheritor of a great (if muddle-headed) political tradition should be able to inspire more than 200,000 to sign up.

    The lack of engagement in politics is, to my mind, one of the most worrying aspects of the disengagement and atomisation of modern Britain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    The Lib-Dems had an In/Out referendum as a manifesto commitment at the last election. How can they possibly block one now?

    Or is a Lib Dem manifesto not worth the paper it's printed on?

    That's probably why most versions seen will be electronic thesedays - they cannot not be worth the paper they're printed on if they aren't printed, right?

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    patrickwintour Reports>Cameron will publish draft in out referendum bill tomorrow for pick up by Tory backbenchers, and press LDs to give government time

    Crickey. UKIP really do have them worried!
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    The Lib-Dems had an In/Out referendum as a manifesto commitment at the last election. How can they possibly block one now?

    Or is a Lib Dem manifesto not worth the paper it's printed on?

    I know, you have to laugh.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1m

    LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    patrickwintour Reports>Cameron will publish draft in out referendum bill tomorrow for pick up by Tory backbenchers, and press LDs to give government time

    Crickey. UKIP really do have them worried!
    It's actually quite unseemly how terrified the Conservatives are (and the feeble efforts to drag Labour into their fear pathetic), and Cameron really has no control over anyone anymore, does he? I may have gone from being fairly optimistic about him, to realistic, to pitying him.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Maybe Clegg will whip them all to abstain saying that a real referendum would be In/Out... no, wait a minute...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SeanT said:


    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.

    Calm down Sean, you're getting carried away.
  • At this rate Cameron will be invoking article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before the Euro elections. UKIP clearly have got the Tories on the run.......
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    patrickwintour LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Maybe Clegg will whip them all to abstain saying that a real referendum would be In/Out... no, wait a minute...

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/334049789400473601
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The Lib-Dems had an In/Out referendum as a manifesto commitment at the last election. How can they possibly block one now?

    Because the commitment was for a referendum on the next significant treaty.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1m

    LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed

    LDs = Euroholics.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    patrickwintour Reports>Cameron will publish draft in out referendum bill tomorrow for pick up by Tory backbenchers, and press LDs to give government time

    Crickey. UKIP really do have them worried!
    Dave,me thinks cammers as seen ukip 19% poll ;-)

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Charles Charles Charles.

    Where to start. First of all at election times thousand, probably tens of thousands of Union members volunteer without being members of the party, The idea a union would ever pay a members subs is frankly stupid.

    On your point on the quality of the membership I actually think you're right. The problem is is that it actually really harms your overall point as Labour activism levels massively outweigh the Tories. You only have to read a few blogs to see what a problem its becoming.

    The reason why Labour can get 250 seats on 29% of the vote is precisely because Labour members are active.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Indeed PtP, there's value out there.

    There's a small nordic betting outfit called unibet who are offering 2.6/1 against UKIP winning at least 1 seat at the GE. Despite operating under a dodgy maltese license, they're generally sound & I've been paid out previously. They allowed me £50 at 11/4, before slicing a little off their odds.

    The problem with betting on UKIP is if they run joint-ticket candidates. I'm keeping stakes low for now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    edited May 2013

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
    Mace Windu, like Master Yoda was so crap and inept, I mean they didn't even notice a Sith Lord right under their noses.

    That's the sort of mistake I'd expect from Hannibal or Ed Miliband
    The Force is strong with you, young Eagles, but you are not a Kipper yet!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
    Mace Windu, like Master Yoda was so crap and inept, I mean they didn't even notice a Sith Lord right under their noses.

    That's the sort of mistake I'd expect from Hannibal or Ed Miliband
    The Force is strong with you, young Eagles. You are not a Kipper yet!
    UKIP wouldn't want me
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    The BBC says this draft bill comes amid 'growing ructions' in the Tory party. I wasn't away ructions still happened since 1880.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I think I'll go and buy Jamie Oliver's book tomorrow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 1m

    With Cameron offering govt time for EU bill he cldnt get in Queens Speech, scenarios where the coalition ends early come into view
  • patrickwintour LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed

    Oh well thats the last Libdem proposal thats going to get through this Parliament then.....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1m

    LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed

    LDs = Euroholics.
    Sunil,like it's been said,theys nothing liberal or democratic about the lib dems ;-)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    patrickwintour Reports>Cameron will publish draft in out referendum bill tomorrow for pick up by Tory backbenchers, and press LDs to give government time

    Crickey. UKIP really do have them worried!
    It's actually quite unseemly how terrified the Conservatives are (and the feeble efforts to drag Labour into their fear pathetic), and Cameron really has no control over anyone anymore, does he? I may have gone from being fairly optimistic about him, to realistic, to pitying him.
    Mr Cameron is the one who'll be sacked first if the polls don't turn around. So the panic comes from him.

    But they must all surely have the memory of the Canadian Conservatives' wipeout in mind when they look at the numbers. The unthinkable happened there, it can happen here too.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited May 2013
    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:


    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.

    Calm down Sean, you're getting carried away.
    And so out of character, too :)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Bonkers obsessive Tories

    @politicshomeuk: Conservative rebels not content with Cameron's EU referendum bill, call for Govt to support Queen's Speech amendment: http://t.co/r4eik1aVKl

    That is bonkers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1m

    LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed

    LDs = Euroholics.
    Sunil,like it's been said,theys nothing liberal or democratic about the lib dems ;-)
    Well maybe, but then it's also been said that Labour aren't really a party of labour anymore, and the Tories aren't really Tories anymore.

    I'm so confused.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
    Mace Windu, like Master Yoda was so crap and inept, I mean they didn't even notice a Sith Lord right under their noses.

    That's the sort of mistake I'd expect from Hannibal or Ed Miliband
    The Force is strong with you, young Eagles. You are not a Kipper yet!
    UKIP wouldn't want me
    The Force is strong with you. A powerful Kipper you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth Eagles.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited May 2013

    kle4 said:

    patrickwintour Reports>Cameron will publish draft in out referendum bill tomorrow for pick up by Tory backbenchers, and press LDs to give government time

    Crickey. UKIP really do have them worried!
    It's actually quite unseemly how terrified the Conservatives are (and the feeble efforts to drag Labour into their fear pathetic), and Cameron really has no control over anyone anymore, does he? I may have gone from being fairly optimistic about him, to realistic, to pitying him.
    Mr Cameron is the one who'll be sacked first if the polls don't turn around. So the panic comes from him.

    But they must all surely have the memory of the Canadian Conservatives' wipeout in mind when they look at the numbers. The unthinkable happened there, it can happen here too.

    Oh no question the panic comes from Cameron. You don't lose control over your party so obviously unless they can sense the panic and insecurity and know you cannot or won't stop them. They know they can defy him all they want because he's so palpably desperate.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Neil said:

    The Lib-Dems had an In/Out referendum as a manifesto commitment at the last election. How can they possibly block one now?

    Because the commitment was for a referendum on the next significant treaty.
    Fig leaf. I cannot believe they would've offered it if they thought there was a realistic prospect of it happening, let alone a possibility of losing. This the party that would've dived in gung ho into the Euro, and created an enormous Ireland in the process.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    Dr. Prasannan, are you suggesting Mace Windu is a member of UKIP?

    His light-saber aside, Mace Windu let his guard slip against Palpatine unfortunately!
    Mace Windu, like Master Yoda was so crap and inept, I mean they didn't even notice a Sith Lord right under their noses.

    That's the sort of mistake I'd expect from Hannibal or Ed Miliband
    The Force is strong with you, young Eagles. You are not a Kipper yet!
    UKIP wouldn't want me
    The Force is strong with you. A powerful Kipper you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth Eagles.
    Nooo, I'm more Jar Jar Binks
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cameron is feeding the beast again? Because it worked so well last time?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:

    The idea a union would ever pay a members subs is frankly stupid.

    It seems entirely sensible from an affiliated union's point of view to me, IOS. Which is probably why (according to credible media reports) UNITE is doing it.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    kle4 said:

    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1m

    LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed

    LDs = Euroholics.
    Sunil,like it's been said,theys nothing liberal or democratic about the lib dems ;-)
    Well maybe, but then it's also been said that Labour aren't really a party of labour anymore, and the Tories aren't really Tories anymore.

    I'm so confused.
    That's when ukip comes into your life ;-)

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    welshowl said:


    Fig leaf.

    Perhaps - but I dont see how you can appeal to them to live up to their manifesto and also ignore what the manifesto said at the same time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Dave is displaying all the brilliance of Varro and Paullus at Cannae
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    SeanT said:

    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:


    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.

    Calm down Sean, you're getting carried away.
    You clearly saw that I LABORIOUSLY repeated the word POTENTIALLY.

    Right?
    Yes, even that goes too far. In realistic terms it's potentially an SDP remoulding, it's not the Labour party circa 1918.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Hopi Sen nails it

    Hopi Sen ‏@hopisen 1m

    Seriously, No 10. I'll tell you what to do to win for money. I'll even pretend to have gone to leading public school. This is just unseemly.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    DPJHodges Oliver Letwin is currently on his way round to John Baron's flat, pizza in hand...

    Oh God no,camerons fcuked up again,not letwin.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Dave is displaying all the brilliance of Varro and Paullus at Cannae
    But who is Hannibal?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    SeanT said:

    corporeal said:

    SeanT said:


    In that light, this poll is entirely unsurprising. The people despise their rulers in a way we have not seen in many decades. This goes beyond an SDP type remoulding, this is potentially a revolution.

    Potentially.

    Calm down Sean, you're getting carried away.
    You clearly saw that I LABORIOUSLY repeated the word POTENTIALLY.

    Right?
    @SeanT

    Can I claim the 'patent' on the term "Euroholic"?

    Euroholic (n.) - one who is intoxicated with and/or addicted to the notion of ever-closer and ever-deeper union of one's country with its European neighbours and who cannot accept arguments to the contrary, often branding their opponents as "extreme" or "racist" or "xenophobic" or even just "stupid". A Euroholic is often heard repeating the mantra "My EU right or wrong!".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Dave is displaying all the brilliance of Varro and Paullus at Cannae
    But who is Hannibal?

    Ed Miliband.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    He's tried ignoring the problem, he's tried ridiculing the problem, he's tried appeasing the problem, and none of it has fixed the problem, so I'm not surprised he doesn't know what he's doing.

    Ultimately the problem is people. The general public for becoming increasingly eurosceptic and willing to listen to such anti-EU rhetoric more than the party leaders had counted on, and the parliamentary tory party, who have proven to have zero respect for Cameron's authority and willing to talk him down at every turn. Either he kowtows to them on all things and calls the LD bluff to end the coalition, or he is forced closer to the LDs to try and defeat his own rebellious wing, which just alienates him further.

    Is it too soon to suggest he will be a lame duck PM from hereon out? (no 'it's too late' jokes - he at least had the opportunity to get things done before)

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IOS said:

    Charles Charles Charles.

    Where to start. First of all at election times thousand, probably tens of thousands of Union members volunteer without being members of the party, The idea a union would ever pay a members subs is frankly stupid.

    On your point on the quality of the membership I actually think you're right. The problem is is that it actually really harms your overall point as Labour activism levels massively outweigh the Tories. You only have to read a few blogs to see what a problem its becoming.

    The reason why Labour can get 250 seats on 29% of the vote is precisely because Labour members are active.

    Where to start:

    The idea a union would ever pay a members subs is frankly stupid.

    Yesterday's Guardian perhaps: "allegations of mass recruitment of Unite members to the constituency with their fees being paid en bloc by the union." [ref: Falkirk West]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/12/unite-union-accused-manipulation-labour-selection

    Word of advice, dear boy. I know you lot think your supporters are stupid proles, but it's a *really* bad idea to let the mask slip. Look at the problems Cameron created for himself when some of his supporters figured out he didn't have too much time for theselves

    The problem is is that it actually really harms your overall point as Labour activism levels massively outweigh the Tories.

    Possibly, yes. I don't know enough of the details of how Labour works, but it wouldn't surprise me if union members (especially the public servants paid to do union work) volunteer to help Labour.

    But your problem is that you *always* look at things in relative, tribal terms. I don't care whether it hurts Labour or the Tories more. I *do* care that a massive section of society is disengaged from mainstream politics. UKIP scares me - because it is a very bad sign about the health of Britain's social-political settlement.

    The reason why Labour can get 250 seats on 29% of the vote is precisely because Labour members are active

    Nah, that's bull. The reason why Labour does better is partly because of better voting distribution, partly because of differential turnouts, partly because of slightly smaller average constituency sizes and partly because of the relative over-weighting of Wales and Scotland. Activism has very little to do with it.

    But do keep on telling yourself that when you are on the next 6am coach to Portsmouth South (or wherever).
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:


    What a disgusting little party of euro-weasels.

    You almost have to admire their cheek.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Dave is displaying all the brilliance of Varro and Paullus at Cannae
    Indeed, encircled and cut to bits. Still the Romans won the war though....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2013
    I'm almost certain that a referendum Bill will be moved before the general election. That's the vote that will count since, unlike the present amendment, it will have actual consequences. And, with the possible exception of Ken Clarke, my guess is that every Conservative MP will support that Bill when the moment arrives. Indeed, the interesting question is how many Lib Dems will vote in accordance with their own manifesto (here is an especially timely reminder); and how many Labour MPs will join them. Yesterday, 15 MPs, uneasy at their party's contempt for the voter, launched Labour for a Referendum.

    You hadn't heard about that? Well, it doesn't fit the churnalist agenda. The EU is covered purely as a 'Tory splits' issue. When, last week, a former Conservative MP wrote in the Times that he would vote to leave the EU, it dominated the headlines for 48 hours. When, the following day, a sitting Labour MP said the same thing on the same page of the same paper, no one picked it up.

    In the current climate, anything said by any Tory, however measured and moderate, is an 'outburst'. Any response is a 'slapping down'. Michael Gove says he backs the prime minister's policy. Philip Hammond says he agrees with Michael Gove. Out come the lazy explosives metaphors. www.blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100216699/tory-splits-what-tory-splits/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    kle4 said:

    Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 1m

    LDs reject draft Tory referendum bill saying "Cons are free to bang on about Europe, but this is an internal Tory trauma". Govt posit. fixed

    LDs = Euroholics.
    Sunil,like it's been said,theys nothing liberal or democratic about the lib dems ;-)
    Well maybe, but then it's also been said that Labour aren't really a party of labour anymore, and the Tories aren't really Tories anymore.

    I'm so confused.
    That's when ukip comes into your life ;-)

    I have seen the light!

    Actually not quite, but really what harm could it do at this point?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Dave is displaying all the brilliance of Varro and Paullus at Cannae
    Indeed, encircled and cut to bits. Still the Romans won the war though....
    Yay, someone who understands his history.

    I'm hoping the 2015 GE will be Ed's Zama.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I've just noticed the LD numbers. 11%. ICM have had the LDs ~15% forever.

    But with a blip.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm

    ICM also had the LDs @ 11 in May 2010. And at 12% in June 2011.

    Is this a normal post-local-elections-loss result for them?

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    It can't be long before we get this ;

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcRWiz1PhKU
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Neil

    I saw your comment from previous thread. Yes, one of the SW Tory MEPs is standing down. However, the other 2 have been reselected. I still have no clue if they meant reselected as standing somewhere on the list or reselected with the right of top 2 places (it apparently depends on if they got 60% of the electoral college in their favour). I would ask on ConHome but I am afraid of certain people there.
    Anyway, if the 2 sitting MEPs are at the top, right now I can't see the Tories holding the third seat.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Dave is displaying all the brilliance of Varro and Paullus at Cannae
    Indeed, encircled and cut to bits. Still the Romans won the war though....
    Yay, someone who understands his history.

    I'm hoping the 2015 GE will be Ed's Zama.
    Miliband delenda est? ( sorry cant do Latin future tenses!)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Hmm.

    If we did get an early referendum, I wonder how the blank sheet of paper would do.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Is this tonight on Cameron when he pulls of a masterstroke or will I be back saying Cameron is useless at politics ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Pong said:

    Anyone else get the impression Dave doesn't know what he's doing?

    Dave is displaying all the brilliance of Varro and Paullus at Cannae
    Indeed, encircled and cut to bits. Still the Romans won the war though....
    Yay, someone who understands his history.

    I'm hoping the 2015 GE will be Ed's Zama.
    Miliband delenda est? ( sorry cant do Latin future tenses!)
    Ceterum censeo Miliband esse delendam
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Charles.

    The efficient vote distribution is precisely because of the campaigning members you dolt!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The 15 Labour MPs for the Referendum are:

    Ronnie Campbell, Rosie Cooper, John Cryer, Ian Davidson, Jim Dowd, Natascha Engel, Frank Field, Roger Godsiff, Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins, John McDonnell, Austin Mitchell, Grahame Morris, Graham Stringer, Keith Vaz.
This discussion has been closed.