SeanT - Disagree slightly, I think there would be a narrow OUT vote today, but maybe a vote to stay in if Cameron can get some renegotiation of terms, particularly as Europe alters course anyway with a new banking union etc in prospect
Actual Con - Spot on (-4) Lab 34 (-4) LD 11 (-4) UKIP 18 (+9)
So LD/Lab being hit more than I thought they would be - the 35 - 40 region of the Labour vote is quite 'soft', but on these numbers 35 wins a landslide... but hmm 34 is not good at all for an opposition at this stage. Question is do the public now go full tilt and switch en masse to UKIP ? 9 - 18% is a collosal jump.
DPJHodges If Labour were to agree to back referendum, and call for it this side of GE, David Cameron would be finished.
Oh dear I agree with Hodges.
Labour can finish Cameron's career tomorrow. But the Tories might replace him with someone who can win elections
Well just look at how many gullible idiots believed Cammie over his flounce and his Cast iron referendum pledge.
Of course little Ed could easily match the vapid cast iron commitment from Cammie on a conditional EU referendum precisely because it's so easily wriggled out and could be strung out indefinitely. He could even use all Cammie's excuses for doing so since they are already all there in place, "false choice" etc.
Since you seem to still be far too obtuse to understand: The "cast iron" quote was a commitment for the Election That Never Was - which Brown chickened out of. It was valid at that time. After Brown chickened out of the election and signed Lisbon Cameron immediately said that it changed the situation - which it of course did. Nobody had yet voted in a General Election and the manifesto contained no such "cast iron" pledge.
Judge a PM by his election manifesto before the election that actually happened - not one article written before an election that was cancelled.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%. Labour lead down at 7 points again.
If we combine the two polls we ge Con 29.5 Lab 36 LD 10.5 (Ouch!) UKIP 16.
Clearly the kippers are the third party of British politics now. Will Farage be in the debates ? If hes not UKIP will rightly make a song and dance about it.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%. Labour lead down at 7 points again.
If we combine the two polls we ge Con 29.5 Lab 36 LD 10.5 (Ouch!) UKIP 16.
Clearly the kippers are the third party of British politics now. Will Farage be in the debates ? If hes not UKIP will rightly make a song and dance about it.
Ed Miliband should get out in front of this and advocate including Farage in the debates. It makes him look inclusive and bold, helps build grudges between Con and UKIP and hopefully costs Con more than it costs Lab.
The current tory reversion to John Major style bickering and running about like headless chickens over Europe and the EU referendum clearly wasn't a big enough clue for you either.
Time for the Tories to ditch their unnatural attachment to the penny-farthing electoral system (FPTP).
A Tory majority is now a pipe-dream for the foreseeable future, but Labour majorities on ever declining shares of the vote (even if Labour doesn't win a plurality) are a real and terrifying prospect under FPTP...
In 1884 Lord Salisbury insisted on a change to the electoral system to avoid, as he wrote: "the absolute effacement of the Conservative Party. It would not have reappeared as a political force for thirty years. This conviction...greatly simplified for me the computation of risks."
The change Salisbury insisted upon to avoid annihilation? The introduction of the radical concept of single-member constituencies, overturning the system that had stood more or less unchanged since Simon de Montfort summoned the first parliament in 1264...
130 years later it is time again for the Tories to think outside of the box. FPTP in single-member constituencies has had its day, and now only favours one party - Labour.
It is 21 years since the Tories last won a (narrow) parliamentary majority, and it could easily be another 21 years before they win another under FPTP, if at all...
History shows that single-member FPTP was forced into existence by the Tories purely for reasons of self-preservation in 1884, and not for any supposed intrinsic merits of the system.
Do the Tories have the wit in 2013 to see what Salisbury saw, and avoid oblivion, if necessary by abandoning some long-held assumptions, and acting ruthlessly in their own strategic interests?
Immigrants? We sent out search parties to get them to come... and made it hard for Britons to get work, says Mandelson
Former minister admits Labour deliberately engineered mass immigration Between 1997 and 2010 net migration to Britain totalled 2.2million
Labour sent out ‘search parties’ for immigrants to get them to come to the UK, Lord Mandelson has admitted.
In a stunning confirmation that the Blair and Brown governments deliberately engineered mass immigration, the former Cabinet Minister and spin doctor said New Labour sought out foreign workers.
He also conceded that the influx of arrivals meant the party’s traditional supporters are now unable to find work.
By contrast, Labour leader Ed Miliband has said his party got it wrong on immigration but has refused to admit it was too high under Labour.
Between 1997 and 2010, net migration to Britain totalled more than 2.2million, more than twice the population of Birmingham.
The annual net figure quadrupled under Labour from 48,000 people in 1997 to 198,000 by 2009
Lord Mandelson’s remarks come three years after Labour officials denied claims by former adviser Andrew Neather that they deliberately encouraged immigration in order to change the make-up of Britain.
Mr Neather said the policy was designed to ‘rub the Right’s nose in diversity’.
He said there was ‘a driving political purpose: that mass immigration was the way that the Government was going to make the UK truly multicultural’.
Senior Labour figures have been reluctant to concede they deliberately engineered the influx of migrants who have transformed communities over the past decade.
But, at a rally for the Blairite think-tank Progress, Lord Mandelson said: ‘In 2004 when as a Labour government, we were not only welcoming people to come into this country to work, we were sending out search parties for people and encouraging them, in some cases, to take up work in this country.’
He said: ‘The problem has grown during the period of economic stagnation over the last five, six years.’
Yesterday I watched the film "Caravaggio" (by Derek Jarman, 1986) starring the then-young-and-gorgeous Dexter Fletcher. It portrayed Michelangelo Merisi da Caravaggio as good looking, artistically talented (and able to earn a large income from his artistic works), sexually debauched and degenerate, and with a background of youthful sexual promiscuity and casual but sophisticated drunken violence.
Comments
A perfect storm and the best Labour can manage is a 6% lead with ICM..
Whereabouts if you don't mind me asking Mike? I have my first meeting on June 11th in Hornchurch
Lib + Lab : 45
!
Pulpstar predction
Con: 28 (-4)
Lab: 37 (-1)
LD: 13 (-2)
UKIP: 16 (+7)
Actual
Con - Spot on (-4)
Lab 34 (-4)
LD 11 (-4)
UKIP 18 (+9)
So LD/Lab being hit more than I thought they would be - the 35 - 40 region of the Labour vote is quite 'soft', but on these numbers 35 wins a landslide... but hmm 34 is not good at all for an opposition at this stage. Question is do the public now go full tilt and switch en masse to UKIP ? 9 - 18% is a collosal jump.
Judge a PM by his election manifesto before the election that actually happened - not one article written before an election that was cancelled.
Clearly the kippers are the third party of British politics now. Will Farage be in the debates ? If hes not UKIP will rightly make a song and dance about it.
It wasn't a commitment it was a lie for gullible foolsHas it sunk in yet?
Cammie's Cast Iron IN/OUT referendum pledge is no different since it is entirely conditional on renegotiations on a treaty that just won't happen.
He's already been called out on it by prominent tories who know perfectly well he would weasel out of it. Unlike the more gullible idiots. Not enough for you? Care to explain why so many tory MPs don't think Cammie's Cast Iron IN/OUT pledge is believable then? The current tory reversion to John Major style bickering and running about like headless chickens over Europe and the EU referendum clearly wasn't a big enough clue for you either. Cameroonian spinners just never learn.
A Tory majority is now a pipe-dream for the foreseeable future, but Labour majorities on ever declining shares of the vote (even if Labour doesn't win a plurality) are a real and terrifying prospect under FPTP...
Only one country in the world with an ENP that large retains FPTP: India...
For good reason. Without pacts, etc, FPTP starts to disintegrate as a credible electoral system around this level of parties.
I did warn those who voted against AV to be careful what they wished for...
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/04/25/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-av-through-the-looking-glass/
A COUNCIL'S priceless collection of 600 sewing machines will go on public display after being kept in storage for 30 years.
They were made at the giant Singer plant in Clydebank, which closed in 1980.
West Dunbartonshire Council have secured national accreditation for the collection from Museums Galleries Scotland. Council chiefs now hope to get government funding to put them on permanent display.
The largest collection of sewing machines in Europe and the second largest in the world includes the first ever Singer from 1851.
The change Salisbury insisted upon to avoid annihilation? The introduction of the radical concept of single-member constituencies, overturning the system that had stood more or less unchanged since Simon de Montfort summoned the first parliament in 1264...
130 years later it is time again for the Tories to think outside of the box. FPTP in single-member constituencies has had its day, and now only favours one party - Labour.
It is 21 years since the Tories last won a (narrow) parliamentary majority, and it could easily be another 21 years before they win another under FPTP, if at all...
History shows that single-member FPTP was forced into existence by the Tories purely for reasons of self-preservation in 1884, and not for any supposed intrinsic merits of the system.
Do the Tories have the wit in 2013 to see what Salisbury saw, and avoid oblivion, if necessary by abandoning some long-held assumptions, and acting ruthlessly in their own strategic interests?
In fact if Labour can match the vote share that Michael Foot got in 1983 they'd govern.
This is madness (and very unhealthy)
Former minister admits Labour deliberately engineered mass immigration
Between 1997 and 2010 net migration to Britain totalled 2.2million
Labour sent out ‘search parties’ for immigrants to get them to come to the UK, Lord Mandelson has admitted.
In a stunning confirmation that the Blair and Brown governments deliberately engineered mass immigration, the former Cabinet Minister and spin doctor said New Labour sought out foreign workers.
He also conceded that the influx of arrivals meant the party’s traditional supporters are now unable to find work.
By contrast, Labour leader Ed Miliband has said his party got it wrong on immigration but has refused to admit it was too high under Labour.
Between 1997 and 2010, net migration to Britain totalled more than 2.2million, more than twice the population of Birmingham.
The annual net figure quadrupled under Labour from 48,000 people in 1997 to 198,000 by 2009
Lord Mandelson’s remarks come three years after Labour officials denied claims by former adviser Andrew Neather that they deliberately encouraged immigration in order to change the make-up of Britain.
Mr Neather said the policy was designed to ‘rub the Right’s nose in diversity’.
He said there was ‘a driving political purpose: that mass immigration was the way that the Government was going to make the UK truly multicultural’.
Senior Labour figures have been reluctant to concede they deliberately engineered the influx of migrants who have transformed communities over the past decade.
But, at a rally for the Blairite think-tank Progress, Lord Mandelson said: ‘In 2004 when as a Labour government, we were not only welcoming people to come into this country to work, we were sending out search parties for people and encouraging them, in some cases, to take up work in this country.’
He said: ‘The problem has grown during the period of economic stagnation over the last five, six years.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324112/Immigrants-We-sent-search-parties-to-come--hard-Britons-work-says-Mandelson.html#ixzz2TEsa1nP2
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Does that remind you of anyone?