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Punters say there’s just a 29% chance the Iranian regime will fall by the end of the month

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,601
    Three US military personnel killed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,840
    I don’t want to give the mullahs any ideas (especially as I’m
    far from home in Shanghai) but given that all major Gulf Airports are now dark, and Russian/Ukrainian airspace is closed, that leaves one route east-west for most airlines

    The Baku Gap

    If Tehran launched a couple of missiles at Azerbaijan that would basically close down half the world’s air travel
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,319

    Zack Polanski
    @ZackPolanski
    ·
    Feb 28
    This is an illegal, unprovoked and brutal attack that shows once again that the USA and Israel are rogue states.

    The UK must end our cosy relationship with the USA and our ongoing support for Israel.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,866

    My holiday is now over.

    Boo, the past week has been fun.

    Should we crowd-fund another holiday for you?
    No.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,678

    The contrast between Jimmy Carter's military fiasco in Iran and Trump's success will make useful propaganda for the GOP.

    So the head of the Hydra has been cut off.

    Early days to confirm a victory. I hope you are tight, but I doubt it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,129

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028106880027894250

    Thick black smoke seen rising from the site of Iranian drone and/or missile strike on Camp de la Paix, a French naval base in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

    The French will be raising the white flag any moment.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,949
    edited 2:55PM

    HYUFD said:

    'Donald Trump is dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want. Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice.

    Read my full statement:'
    https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/2027820065886777456?s=20

    Being as it's Trump I am sure he will sell an Iraq-style fiasco as a win. Early days, and he might be lucky. With Qatar and the UAE on fire, the early signs are not great

    Remarkably some people will buy it too.
    Are you hoping some people will buy what you just wrote ?

    Qatar and UAE on fire ???

    A truly bizarre comment.
    Do you not follow the news?

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVVpcl_CQHe/?igsh=MXNwaHN5cjRmanh6eA==

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c204px4zddro
    Do you try to exaggerate everything which has happened into something you wish would happen ?

    Iran gets its leadership killed and its military destroyed while UAE gets trivial damage to a few buildings.

    Do you think a Sharjah warehouse burning for an hour is going to shift a single vote in the USA ?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    edited 2:58PM

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/. That's been Miliband's position, oddly enough (but he's kept very quiet about it for obvious reasons).

    And IIRC, they put something out about adjacent wells late last year.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,319
    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,531
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs. It would be a good thing for the NE of Scotland but nothing more. The only solution we have is reducing our exposure as quickly as possible.
    I never claimed it would reduce our energy costs
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    Leon said:

    I don’t want to give the mullahs any ideas (especially as I’m
    far from home in Shanghai) but given that all major Gulf Airports are now dark, and Russian/Ukrainian airspace is closed, that leaves one route east-west for most airlines

    The Baku Gap

    If Tehran launched a couple of missiles at Azerbaijan that would basically close down half the world’s air travel

    And even more oil. Directly into Europe via pipelines.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    edited 3:01PM
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs. It would be a good thing for the NE of Scotland but nothing more. The only solution we have is reducing our exposure as quickly as possible.
    I never claimed it would reduce our energy costs
    What did you mean by "More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere" then?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,227

    HYUFD said:

    'Donald Trump is dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want. Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice.

    Read my full statement:'
    https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/2027820065886777456?s=20

    Being as it's Trump I am sure he will sell an Iraq-style fiasco as a win. Early days, and he might be lucky. With Qatar and the UAE on fire, the early signs are not great

    Remarkably some people will buy it too.
    Are you hoping some people will buy what you just wrote ?

    Qatar and UAE on fire ???

    A truly bizarre comment.
    “On fire”

    LOL. A few minor incidents don’t make for a country “on fire”.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,574

    My holiday is now over.

    You didn't miss much while you were away.
    Phew, last week the other half and I talked about visiting Dubai in September.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,601

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    Aberdeen could do with the economic boost. Don’t let the Greens prevent it.
    Roo busy supporting the Iranian regime to worry about energy policy.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,042
    edited 3:13PM
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,678
    edited 3:11PM



    HYUFD said:

    'Donald Trump is dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want. Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice.

    Read my full statement:'
    https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/2027820065886777456?s=20

    Being as it's Trump I am sure he will sell an Iraq-style fiasco as a win. Early days, and he might be lucky. With Qatar and the UAE on fire, the early signs are not great

    Remarkably some people will buy it too.
    Are you hoping some people will buy what you just wrote ?

    Qatar and UAE on fire ???

    A truly bizarre comment.
    Do you not follow the news?

    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVVpcl_CQHe/?igsh=MXNwaHN5cjRmanh6eA==

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c204px4zddro
    Do you try to exaggerate everything which has happened into something you wish would happen ?

    Iran gets its leadership killed and its military destroyed while UAE gets trivial damage to a few buildings.

    Do you think a Sharjah warehouse burning for an hour is going to shift a single vote in the USA ?
    Are you aware of how the f***** in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard operate?

    This might shift some votes if it happens too often.

    https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/01/iran-security-official-says-khamenei-transition-process-to-begin-on-sunday
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,531
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs. It would be a good thing for the NE of Scotland but nothing more. The only solution we have is reducing our exposure as quickly as possible.
    I never claimed it would reduce our energy costs
    What did you mean by "More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere" then?
    Now that’s a good question. Next time ask not sssume. More supply just means more availability. Availability not constrained by a pinch point like Hormuz. The price will be controlled by global markets.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,319

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700
    Leon said:

    https://x.com/AmitSegal/status/2028098684584415680

    It’s now official: former Iranian president and Israel-hater Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was eliminated last night in the opening strike.

    The amazing fact is that his whereabouts were known because he had been under house arrest since he tried to carry out a coup a few weeks ago.

    Ah-me-dinner-jacket

    I will mourn him solely for his name
    Good riddance to even more vile rubbish.

    His name was fun though. Inspired the Jimmy Jab games.

    Jake: The first Jimmy Jabs were held in 2008, when the King of Iraq-
    Rosa: President, Iran.
    Jake: Armen Jimmy Jab.
    Rosa: Ahmadinejad.
    Jake: Came to New York, and were on call for nine glorious hours in case there were protests.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,601

    My holiday is now over.

    You didn't miss much while you were away.
    Phew, last week the other half and I talked about visiting Dubai in September.
    Hopefully you were given short shrift.

    A shitty place for a holiday.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,042

    The contrast between Jimmy Carter's military fiasco in Iran and Trump's success will make useful propaganda for the GOP.

    Rather unfair comparison. In the case of Carter, they were trying to rescue hostages by actually inserting forces into Iran. In the case of Trump they are just trying to kill Iranians (selected Iranians admittedly but with little regard for collateral damage) wihout having to put any troops into the country. The first of those is infinitely harder to achieve than the second.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    No it most definitely is not - and I could not care less if it was either.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,678

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    It breaches US law for starters.

    Mind you if these f****** fell I suspect Trump would be given a pass. If they don't, not so much.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs. It would be a good thing for the NE of Scotland but nothing more. The only solution we have is reducing our exposure as quickly as possible.
    I never claimed it would reduce our energy costs
    What did you mean by "More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere" then?
    Now that’s a good question. Next time ask not sssume. More supply just means more availability. Availability not constrained by a pinch point like Hormuz. The price will be controlled by global markets.
    Yeah, so I understood your point. And it's silly for the reasons I pointed out - increased UK production is going to have next to no impact on oil prices.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    It breaches US law for starters.

    Mind you if these f****** fell I suspect Trump would be given a pass. If they don't, not so much.
    How does it breach US law when every single US POTUS in the modern era has taken similar actions, as they are authorised to do?

    Name a single SCOTUS ruling or otherwise that says that every single US POTUS lately is acting illegally?

    Simply re-interpreting the constitution and saying "this is not allowed" when precedent says it is and the Courts and Congress and laws don't say otherwise does not make you right.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Wasn't there a announcement back in November saying new wells would be allowed? I didn't know about the electrification thing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,116

    Ooer, cat amongst artistic pigeons (a smallish flock I accept).

    WALDEMAR JANUSZCZAK
    @JANUSZCZAK
    The National Gallery of Scotland has announced it is paying tribute to the Scottish painter Jack Vettriano with a big display of his self portraits. What a collapse of judgement! Here's a ghastly 'smoker's' portrait they're showing. And something I wrote about Jack in 2004.

    https://x.com/JANUSZCZAK/status/2028099463668019523?s=20

    It is a somewhat modern take that art must disturb and challenge to be regarded as art. Art used to be commissioned by wealthy patrons just to give pleasure. Vettriano's work does that. The disdain for beauty applied to architecture in the post-war era has left our cities scarred with monstrosities.
    I knew someone who was furiously attacked by her “teachers” at the Slade, for her love of producing representational paintings.

    Why? It’s not as if abstract art is cowering in a corner, unrepresented.
    Ghouls.
    Massive insecurity is my thought. The obsessed anger with anyone not conforming to their “rules”.

    Bit like the thought process of the Iranian Mullahs - everyone must conform to my revolution. Otherwise the revolution is at risk.
    The sort of people that read 1984 and think “what a good idea”.
    I think humans are divided into three groups -

    1) Those that just accept how things are
    2) Those that understand that life is non-linear
    3) Those that fight against any manifestation of non-linearity.

    Non-linear is about how the world is layers of predictable and unpredictable. See a Mandelbrot set.

    All those “Burn the heretics”, “Line everyone up in one uniform, shouting hail to the One Leader” etc. are about attempting to impose linearity on the non-linear world.

    Which is ultimately why Fascism, Communism and all other implementations of ideology, with totalitarian ambition, fail.

    And as they stubble along, they create a feeling of similarity - many have described how 1984 spoke to them, in various repressive systems. That the ideology is secondary to the feeling of the attempt to enforce uniformity.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,742

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2028052929806999755

    The UK Defense Secretary said two missiles were fired toward Cyprus, where thousands of British troops are stationed.

    Defence.
    Only if the author is writing English vs American English
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,203

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    No it most definitely is not - and I could not care less if it was either.
    Are you now an expert in the thing that according to you doesn't exist?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,319

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    No it most definitely is not - and I could not care less if it was either.
    Thanks for the admission.

    International law not important to you.

    How about the right to defend yourself as a Nation attacked by foreign forces against international law. Is that not important to you either despite banging on about it for well over 2 years?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,227

    My holiday is now over.

    You didn't miss much while you were away.
    Phew, last week the other half and I talked about visiting Dubai in September.
    September’s a bit hot, better to wait until November.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,742
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I missed my flight home. Yep. I hear you all wisely sighing: “that’s war for you”

    Actually, it was food poisoning. Woke up with weird shivers and chills then vomited for an hour

    Unideal for a 15 hour flight

    Make sure you replace electrolytes before flying.
    Thanks. It was most unpleasant - and quite expensive - no refund on my flight

    But I’m already feeling a bit better and, actually, a few more days in Shanghai is not a great burden. The city is compelling and the hotels remain absurdly cheap
    Have you been to Suzhou, Wuxi, or Huzhou on the bullet train? Or closer (end of the metro) Zhuijaijaio?
    I haven’t. Would you recommend? I have 7 days left on my visa if I stay
    Xi’an to see the model army of you haven’t been before
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,531
    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs. It would be a good thing for the NE of Scotland but nothing more. The only solution we have is reducing our exposure as quickly as possible.
    I never claimed it would reduce our energy costs
    What did you mean by "More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere" then?
    Now that’s a good question. Next time ask not sssume. More supply just means more availability. Availability not constrained by a pinch point like Hormuz. The price will be controlled by global markets.
    Yeah, so I understood your point. And it's silly for the reasons I pointed out - increased UK production is going to have next to no impact on oil prices.
    Which I never said it would. 🤷‍♂️

    My point was about additional sourcing from a less risky jurisdiction but if you want to argue a point I never made feel free to
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,574
    Sandpit said:

    My holiday is now over.

    You didn't miss much while you were away.
    Phew, last week the other half and I talked about visiting Dubai in September.
    September’s a bit hot, better to wait until November.
    But our birthdays aren't in November.

    Pro tip, never date a teacher, scheduling holidays is a challenge, also don't date an English teacher, they dump you for improper use of a colon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,128


    Zack Polanski
    @ZackPolanski
    ·
    Feb 28
    This is an illegal, unprovoked and brutal attack that shows once again that the USA and Israel are rogue states.

    The UK must end our cosy relationship with the USA and our ongoing support for Israel.

    Yet you support the Mullahs who also have killed about 50,000 people.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,128

    My holiday is now over.

    Does that mean the war ends? How boring!

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,410

    My holiday is now over.

    No one seems to have told Trump.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,129
    🚫Iran’s IRGC claims to have struck USS Abraham Lincoln with ballistic missiles. LIE.
    ✅The Lincoln was not hit. The missiles launched didn’t even come close. The Lincoln continues to launch aircraft in support of CENTCOM’s relentless campaign to defend the American people by eliminating threats from the Iranian regime.

    https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2028124242273767557?s=20
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,042

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    No it most definitely is not - and I could not care less if it was either.
    Thanks for the admission.

    International law not important to you.

    How about the right to defend yourself as a Nation attacked by foreign forces against international law. Is that not important to you either despite banging on about it for well over 2 years?
    To be fair, although, as he knows, I actually disagree with him, Bart has always been consistent in his claim that International Law is a myth.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,227
    edited 3:26PM

    Sandpit said:

    My holiday is now over.

    You didn't miss much while you were away.
    Phew, last week the other half and I talked about visiting Dubai in September.
    September’s a bit hot, better to wait until November.
    But our birthdays aren't in November.

    Pro tip, never date a teacher, scheduling holidays is a challenge, also don't date an English teacher, they dump you for improper use of a colon.
    First week of Dubai tourist season is half term, end of October. Don’t be earlier than that, unless you really like hot and humid.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,128
    Leon said:

    I don’t want to give the mullahs any ideas (especially as I’m
    far from home in Shanghai) but given that all major Gulf Airports are now dark, and Russian/Ukrainian airspace is closed, that leaves one route east-west for most airlines

    The Baku Gap

    If Tehran launched a couple of missiles at Azerbaijan that would basically close down half the world’s air travel

    Looks interesting on Flightradar right now:

    https://www.flightradar24.com/29.67,21.69/3
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,860


    Zack Polanski
    @ZackPolanski
    ·
    Feb 28
    This is an illegal, unprovoked and brutal attack that shows once again that the USA and Israel are rogue states.

    The UK must end our cosy relationship with the USA and our ongoing support for Israel.

    Seemingly the cosy relationship with the USA has already been ended, by one D Trump.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Wasn't there a announcement back in November saying new wells would be allowed? I didn't know about the electrification thing.
    They said they would allow near field exploration in specific circumstances. But nothing has actually come of it yet and in the meantime companies are simply shutting up shop, fulfilling their obligations by properly abandoning wells and removing platforms and buggering off to spend their investment money in other parts of the world where people still want oil and gas production and also (as an additional consideration) where they won't tax them out of existence. Like Norway.

    So we don't burn any less oil and gas, we just buy it from Norway, who get all the tax revenue and the jobs.
    I disagree with that policy, but I'm going to guess that the Norway has similar electrification standard? And don't they have a similar tax regime too?

    My sense of this is that whatever policies you have in place will be overall immaterial in the path of prodiction over the next 20 years. Norway have got it right though in terms of having tiny domestic consumption - unlike us they won't be significantly damaged by whatever happens when the markets open.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,128

    Sandpit said:

    My holiday is now over.

    You didn't miss much while you were away.
    Phew, last week the other half and I talked about visiting Dubai in September.
    September’s a bit hot, better to wait until November.
    But our birthdays aren't in November.

    Pro tip, never date a teacher, scheduling holidays is a challenge, also don't date an English teacher, they dump you for improper use of a colon.
    My birthday's in November. But I'm sorry, TSE. I'm strictly butter side up.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,607

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Do any other countries carry out such performative economic madness, or is it just the UK that chooses to shoot itself in the foot?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,116
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Wasn't there a announcement back in November saying new wells would be allowed? I didn't know about the electrification thing.
    They said they would allow near field exploration in specific circumstances. But nothing has actually come of it yet and in the meantime companies are simply shutting up shop, fulfilling their obligations by properly abandoning wells and removing platforms and buggering off to spend their investment money in other parts of the world where people still want oil and gas production and also (as an additional consideration) where they won't tax them out of existence. Like Norway.

    So we don't burn any less oil and gas, we just buy it from Norway, who get all the tax revenue and the jobs.
    I disagree with that policy, but I'm going to guess that the Norway has similar electrification standard? And don't they have a similar tax regime too?

    My sense of this is that whatever policies you have in place will be overall immaterial in the path of prodiction over the next 20 years. Norway have got it right though in terms of having tiny domestic consumption - unlike us they won't be significantly damaged by whatever happens when the markets open.
    Their taxation policy is *stable* - rather than "must grab 'windfall profits'"
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,319


    Zack Polanski
    @ZackPolanski
    ·
    Feb 28
    This is an illegal, unprovoked and brutal attack that shows once again that the USA and Israel are rogue states.

    The UK must end our cosy relationship with the USA and our ongoing support for Israel.

    Yet you support the Mullahs who also have killed about 50,000 people.


    Zack Polanski
    @ZackPolanski
    ·
    Feb 28
    This is an illegal, unprovoked and brutal attack that shows once again that the USA and Israel are rogue states.

    The UK must end our cosy relationship with the USA and our ongoing support for Israel.

    Yet you support the Mullahs who also have killed about 50,000 people.
    Do I?

    Please show your workings of both the 50,000 number you quote and my support for Iran killing them.

    While you are at it are you now in support of another illegal war, and not too fussed about International law?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Wasn't there a announcement back in November saying new wells would be allowed? I didn't know about the electrification thing.
    They said they would allow near field exploration in specific circumstances. But nothing has actually come of it yet and in the meantime companies are simply shutting up shop, fulfilling their obligations by properly abandoning wells and removing platforms and buggering off to spend their investment money in other parts of the world where people still want oil and gas production and also (as an additional consideration) where they won't tax them out of existence. Like Norway.

    So we don't burn any less oil and gas, we just buy it from Norway, who get all the tax revenue and the jobs.
    I disagree with that policy, but I'm going to guess that the Norway has similar electrification standard? And don't they have a similar tax regime too?

    My sense of this is that whatever policies you have in place will be overall immaterial in the path of prodiction over the next 20 years. Norway have got it right though in terms of having tiny domestic consumption - unlike us they won't be significantly damaged by whatever happens when the markets open.
    Their taxation policy is *stable* - rather than "must grab 'windfall profits'"
    There's has been the same since 1975, while ours was only brought in by Sunak in 2022 (for 8 years, ending in 2030). So it's been stable at a much higher rate.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,531
    Emirati oil platform on fire after drone attack

    Back to the seventies we go

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/2028114840770773418?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700
    kinabalu said:

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    No it most definitely is not - and I could not care less if it was either.
    Are you now an expert in the thing that according to you doesn't exist?
    I don't deny it exists, I just insist that like the pirate code it is more guidelines than actual rules and that other nations don't abide by it as actual rules and nor should we except when it matches our politics.

    Carney has been cited as an expert repeatedly by people who like to claim it does exist firmly and should be followed and he has come out firmly in favour of the actions.

    I would be curious to hear anyone able to explain why Carney is wrong? I have not seen anyone try.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,725
    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,737
    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,742

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Having a sneaking suspicion that the US is randomly raining death on foreigners because there are domestic stories they would like to sideline makes it hard to cheer enthusiastically.

    The Iranian regime has been wishing death on America (and us) for almost 50 years so it's not entirely random.
    That is true, although the question "why now?" is a pertinent one.
    The Telegraph and NYT have the same story on “why now” so I suspect it’s true

    1. There were fears Iran was preparing its own unilateral attack on Israel

    2. Trump decided the Iranians really weren’t interested in serious talks on nukes

    3. The Israelis said - “we have an incredible opportunity coming up, may not happen again, the entire Iranian leadership is gathering in one place, on this one day”

    So they seized the moment. However twits like @DavidL think Trump should have gone to Congress, the UN, left wing British judges, Sky News TV and Lily Allen and her mum to get their “permission” before killing the most evil regime on earth
    Why do you think it will kill it?

    One of Trump's starting positions is that he will not send in soldiers to put boots on the ground, which is pretty much a guarantee of it not succeeding.
    Well they did literally slaughter almost all the upper echelon of the regime. In one day

    An incredible military success, whatever your thoughts on Trump, Bibi etc (and they are both odious - but then recall we supported Stalin over Hitler)

    Will this overthrow the regime in toto? It MIGHT. If America says “we will keep killing your leaders until you free your people” it could actually work

    A more moderate group might emerge, perhaps in the Iranian army, against the IRGC. Polls show that tens of millions of Iranians LOATHE the mullahs, so they wouldn’t lack support
    I don't know - those may be decent reasons. But my understanding is that they are organisationally dug in with 3 or 4 levels of deputies for everything.

    I think that there's a strong element of playing roulette hoping for a zero, here.

    I can't help wondering if the USA is actually as strong as Trump thinks it is - without reaching for my heavy skepticism on Trump, the US armed forces are thin in many respects. I am not sure that they cannot be reached to be given a bloody nose.

    I also wonder about attacks on the US mainland, but that depends if the Iranian regime has sleepers. We all know what a seismic event 9/11 turned out to be, and the last serious war events on US soil were 150 years ago.

    I guess we will find out.
    Is having 3 or 4 levels of deputies even particularly unusual? The US Presidential line of succession has 18 levels. The line of succession for the UK's head of state has 7 people ready to go before we hit any problems.
    Surely only 4? William, George, Charlotte, Louis?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,116
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Wasn't there a announcement back in November saying new wells would be allowed? I didn't know about the electrification thing.
    They said they would allow near field exploration in specific circumstances. But nothing has actually come of it yet and in the meantime companies are simply shutting up shop, fulfilling their obligations by properly abandoning wells and removing platforms and buggering off to spend their investment money in other parts of the world where people still want oil and gas production and also (as an additional consideration) where they won't tax them out of existence. Like Norway.

    So we don't burn any less oil and gas, we just buy it from Norway, who get all the tax revenue and the jobs.
    I disagree with that policy, but I'm going to guess that the Norway has similar electrification standard? And don't they have a similar tax regime too?

    My sense of this is that whatever policies you have in place will be overall immaterial in the path of prodiction over the next 20 years. Norway have got it right though in terms of having tiny domestic consumption - unlike us they won't be significantly damaged by whatever happens when the markets open.
    Their taxation policy is *stable* - rather than "must grab 'windfall profits'"
    There's has been the same since 1975, while ours was only brought in by Sunak in 2022 (for 8 years, ending in 2030). So it's been stable at a much higher rate.
    Not the entire group of taxes and costs on the oil & gas industry. Norway has had a deliberate policy of slow, signalled changes. The UK Governments have not.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,042

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Do any other countries carry out such performative economic madness, or is it just the UK that chooses to shoot itself in the foot?
    Ireland did the same a few years ago but their oil and gas industry had barely started. New Zealand and Denmark both had similar ideas but realised how stupid they were and reversed them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,678
    kinabalu said:

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    No it most definitely is not - and I could not care less if it was either.
    Are you now an expert in the thing that according to you doesn't exist?
    No, no, Barty believes the Laffer Curve exists, it's the rest of us who believe it doesn't work...oh sorry you meant International Law.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,227
    CNN interview with UAE international relations minister.

    https://x.com/dansemperepico/status/2028100794864840831

    "We have, before this began, been very clear about not having our territories be used to attack Iran. We have always encouraged dialogue and we have wanted to make sure that it doesn't amount to this because our region doesn't need another war."

    "By the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that. And really the ball is in Iran's court right now about how they want to deal with a neighborhood and a neighbor that has traditionally been a very fair and good neighbor to them."

    "We're not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks that are unlawful and unjustified."
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,737

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Which rather goes to show that this government are either moronic or downright wicked. Intentionally destroying our oil industry in this way should be an offence charged as treason.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,678

    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)

    In principle going after the Mullahs is a great idea. I am not so sure it will be as collateral free as the hawks on here are suggesting. I hope they are correct.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,116
    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700

    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)

    In principle going after the Mullahs is a great idea. I am not so sure it will be as collateral free as the hawks on here are suggesting. I hope they are correct.
    Who has suggested it will be collateral free?

    There will be collateral damage, of course there is, there always is.

    Inaction is not damage free though.

    The benefits outweigh the costs.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    edited 3:49PM
    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Which rather goes to show that this government are either moronic or downright wicked. Intentionally destroying our oil industry in this way should be an offence charged as treason.
    The 78% tax rate and the reduction of the tax allowance from 80% to 29% both happened under the Conservatives. So whatever you think of this government has to be applied to the last too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,678
    edited 3:50PM

    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)

    In principle going after the Mullahs is a great idea. I am not so sure it will be as collateral free as the hawks on here are suggesting. I hope they are correct.
    Who has suggested it will be collateral free?

    There will be collateral damage, of course there is, there always is.

    Inaction is not damage free though.

    The benefits outweigh the costs.
    As ever that remains to be seen.

    Apparently the Shah's grandson who lives in DC is a somewhat surprised he hasn't been approached...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,042
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Wasn't there a announcement back in November saying new wells would be allowed? I didn't know about the electrification thing.
    They said they would allow near field exploration in specific circumstances. But nothing has actually come of it yet and in the meantime companies are simply shutting up shop, fulfilling their obligations by properly abandoning wells and removing platforms and buggering off to spend their investment money in other parts of the world where people still want oil and gas production and also (as an additional consideration) where they won't tax them out of existence. Like Norway.

    So we don't burn any less oil and gas, we just buy it from Norway, who get all the tax revenue and the jobs.
    I disagree with that policy, but I'm going to guess that the Norway has similar electrification standard? And don't they have a similar tax regime too?

    My sense of this is that whatever policies you have in place will be overall immaterial in the path of prodiction over the next 20 years. Norway have got it right though in terms of having tiny domestic consumption - unlike us they won't be significantly damaged by whatever happens when the markets open.
    Their taxation policy is *stable* - rather than "must grab 'windfall profits'"
    There's has been the same since 1975, while ours was only brought in by Sunak in 2022 (for 8 years, ending in 2030). So it's been stable at a much higher rate.
    But again, theirs is not the same as ours as it allows and encourages exploration and development through tax concessions.

    The proof is in the pudding. Norway drilled 49 new exploration wells last year and made 21 news discoveries. We drilled none. They drilled more than twice that number of production wells. We drilled less than a dozen.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,042
    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Which rather goes to show that this government are either moronic or downright wicked. Intentionally destroying our oil industry in this way should be an offence charged as treason.
    The 78% tax rate and the reduction of the tax allowance from 80% to 29% both happened under the Conservatives. So whatever you think of this government has to be applied to the last too.
    And I was saying the same thing about the last government. Though Milibrains has gone much further with the non-tax disincentives.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,042
    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
    I agree. Though I think much of the concern comes from the fire hazard.

    Mind you I am probably in the minority as I think we should have a far more dispersed power generation system with mini nukes on the outskirts of every town. Pretty sure I am never going to get majority support for that one.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700
    edited 4:00PM

    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
    I agree. Though I think much of the concern comes from the fire hazard.

    Mind you I am probably in the minority as I think we should have a far more dispersed power generation system with mini nukes on the outskirts of every town. Pretty sure I am never going to get majority support for that one.
    In the past I would have agreed with you, but I don't think it makes economic sense anymore.

    Wind turbines, solar and batteries seem a cheaper solution.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    edited 4:01PM

    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
    I agree. Though I think much of the concern comes from the fire hazard.

    Mind you I am probably in the minority as I think we should have a far more dispersed power generation system with mini nukes on the outskirts of every town. Pretty sure I am never going to get majority support for that one.
    Lol. Mini-nuke in the Tesco car park.

    But batteries is another example of where the lack of link between local energy production and consumption blocks progress. If people in the town I grew up in could harness all the excess (free) power from the local wind farm via a community battery centre, you'd have 95% support.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,116

    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
    I agree. Though I think much of the concern comes from the fire hazard.

    Mind you I am probably in the minority as I think we should have a far more dispersed power generation system with mini nukes on the outskirts of every town. Pretty sure I am never going to get majority support for that one.
    It's faked up facebook version of concern about fire risk.

    I think a good part of it comes from the idea that it's something that they can't control. The Green councillors who are prodding away at the chap I know, who is solar farming, seem really frightened by his idea to supply 'leecy direct to the small business centre (re-purposed stable block) he runs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,203
    edited 4:04PM

    kinabalu said:

    Donald/ Benjamin started it

    Apparently that is all that counts

    See October 2023 for further information

    Presumably by SKS logic Iran has the right to defend itself?

    Oh hang on

    Iran provoked it by weaponising uranium, attacking other countries (both directly and indirectly) and attacking its own citizens.

    Does none of that matter to you? It does to me and others, fully justifying what the US and Israel have done who should have our full support.

    Listen to what Carney had to say, quite eloquently, on the matter.
    Course they did. What US and Israel have done is definitely fine in your book

    Its definitely not against International law is it?
    No it most definitely is not - and I could not care less if it was either.
    Are you now an expert in the thing that according to you doesn't exist?
    I don't deny it exists, I just insist that like the pirate code it is more guidelines than actual rules and that other nations don't abide by it as actual rules and nor should we except when it matches our politics.

    Carney has been cited as an expert repeatedly by people who like to claim it does exist firmly and should be followed and he has come out firmly in favour of the actions.

    I would be curious to hear anyone able to explain why Carney is wrong? I have not seen anyone try.
    OK, allow me.

    Carney is saying it's legal and justified because the attack is to stop Iran building a nuke which they would then fire at the US and Israel. So it's self-defence.

    The contra argument is that this is bullshit for three reasons:

    First, the threat is distant and hypothetical, esp since their capability was obliterated (per Trump) in the targetted bombing last year.

    Second, there were viable ongoing negotiations on the nuclear point and it wasn't clear the objective couldn't have been reached via that route.

    Third, both the US and Israel have stated that they are seeking not just preemptive nuclear disarmament but also (and in fact mainly) regime change.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 981

    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
    I agree. Though I think much of the concern comes from the fire hazard.

    Mind you I am probably in the minority as I think we should have a far more dispersed power generation system with mini nukes on the outskirts of every town. Pretty sure I am never going to get majority support for that one.
    The massive Gasoneters on the M6 raised carriageway right near Sphaghetti Junction used to freak me out. Now Star City Area

    You could almost touch them from the hard shoulder. .

    If the IRA had put a bomb under the carriageway there, Birmingham and the Black Country would have resembled Hiroshima.

    Mini nuclear is far safer.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,792
    Sandpit said:

    CNN interview with UAE international relations minister.

    https://x.com/dansemperepico/status/2028100794864840831

    "We have, before this began, been very clear about not having our territories be used to attack Iran. We have always encouraged dialogue and we have wanted to make sure that it doesn't amount to this because our region doesn't need another war."

    "By the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that. And really the ball is in Iran's court right now about how they want to deal with a neighborhood and a neighbor that has traditionally been a very fair and good neighbor to them."

    "We're not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks that are unlawful and unjustified."

    Other passive beneficiaries of UAE’s troubles this week: Singapore and Switzerland.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,227

    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
    I agree. Though I think much of the concern comes from the fire hazard.

    Mind you I am probably in the minority as I think we should have a far more dispersed power generation system with mini nukes on the outskirts of every town. Pretty sure I am never going to get majority support for that one.
    It's faked up facebook version of concern about fire risk.

    I think a good part of it comes from the idea that it's something that they can't control. The Green councillors who are prodding away at the chap I know, who is solar farming, seem really frightened by his idea to supply 'leecy direct to the small business centre (re-purposed stable block) he runs.
    Because the old-fashioned Greens appear to care more about reducing economic activity than carbon emissions.

    A future of SMR nuclear and battery storage supplying cheap energy to industry, is their worst nightmare.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 981
    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    To what extent? We produce about 0.7% of the world's oil. If we exploited every possible reserve, included future discoveries, we could increase our production by perhaps 10-15% in the next 10 years, relative to a steeply declining baseline. This would have infinitesimally small impact on world oil prices.

    I disagree with the restriction of new developments but I disagree even more with the bampot idea that reversing that decision would have any material impact on our energy costs.
    We should be maximising production from our existing wells, not leaving the oil in the ground.
    NSTA agrees: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/massive-opportunity-for-cheaper-easier-cleaner-production/
    LOL. The NSTA are a bunch of idiots (I know, I have to deal with them almost every day). No one suspends viable wells which are still capable of production if it is economic. But it is only economic if you can add additional production from new wells. It is called maintaining the plateau and it needs new wells to be drilled to compensate for falling production on existing wells so that the platform remains economic.

    I am currently involved in shutting down two of the largest North Sea oil fields. Abandoning hundreds of millions of barrels of recoverable oil. We are doing that for two important reasons. Firstly because the Government has banned new drilling so that the plateau can not be maintained and secondly because they have insisted on the electrification of all North Sea platforms by 2030. So platforms will no longer be able to power themselves by burning the gas they produce as a by-product from their wells. Instead they will have to link themselves to the national grid and be powered by electriicty rather than gas turbines or diesel. As a result loads of fields are no longer economic and are shutting down.
    Which rather goes to show that this government are either moronic or downright wicked. Intentionally destroying our oil industry in this way should be an offence charged as treason.
    The 78% tax rate and the reduction of the tax allowance from 80% to 29% both happened under the Conservatives. So whatever you think of this government has to be applied to the last too.
    Don't tell them truths like that

    They'll need to change their Joe 90 tory blue glaases
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,620
    It’s been a bad couple of years to be a friend of Russia.

    To paraphrase Kissinger:

    To be Russia’s enemy is dangerous. To be their ally is lethal.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,227
    Sean_F said:

    It’s been a bad couple of years to be a friend of Russia.

    To paraphrase Kissinger:

    To be Russia’s enemy is dangerous. To be their ally is lethal.

    Do they have any allies left?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,876
    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028136793745334540

    Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, for the first time, has authorized the Royal Saudi Armed Forces to strike back against Iran if necessary, calling attempted attacks by Iran against the east of the country and Riyadh “cowardly,” and stating that Iran knows that Saudi Airspace was not used for strikes against it by Israel or the United States, according to CNN.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,597
    Quick question. Brother who is a long time resident of Australia refers to Trump as a Sentinel. Not a phrase I have come across and assume it is a positive view.

    Translation please
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 981
    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    I agree re Llanberis

    Been down there several times.

    Fascinating

    Should have ordered 4 more at the time. I was told on a visit that sites had been identified

    I went down in 1992 and none of the turbines were running. The only time more than one had run was when Ken had found out that Mike Baldwin had been shagging Deirdre. It was emergency contingency

    Last time I went down in 2016 mid June all were running the chamber was shaking, they said at that time almost always on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,840
    MelonB said:

    Sandpit said:

    CNN interview with UAE international relations minister.

    https://x.com/dansemperepico/status/2028100794864840831

    "We have, before this began, been very clear about not having our territories be used to attack Iran. We have always encouraged dialogue and we have wanted to make sure that it doesn't amount to this because our region doesn't need another war."

    "By the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that. And really the ball is in Iran's court right now about how they want to deal with a neighborhood and a neighbor that has traditionally been a very fair and good neighbor to them."

    "We're not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks that are unlawful and unjustified."

    Other passive beneficiaries of UAE’s troubles this week: Singapore and Switzerland.
    And London

    Dubai really is in a pickle. Their whole shtick is “oasis of safety and stability” and sure, you can leave your phone on a table and it won’t be nicked, but people are super sensitive and averse to the possibility of being randomly bombed

    If the war ends tomorrow it would still take a while for them to repair the reputational damage. But it seems unlikely the war will end tomorrow

    1. The Iranians are going for the Samson Option - tear down the world - especially the Gulf States (not least because they can’t attack the USA directly, so the UAE etc is the next best thing)

    2. If we get regime change then that will still be months or years of instability - right next to Dubai

    3. If we don’t get regime change then a newly angry hostile Iran will make Dubai very uncomfortable

    So I don’t see how the UAE, Qatar, etc, avoid serious damage of various kinds
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    edited 4:15PM
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    theProle said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Another oil tanker on fire. Maersk suspend all shipping through strait of Hormuz.

    Well done Trump. A price worth paying. Gas prices through the roof for the midterms

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2028108550820499774?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I rather think destroying Iran's ability to close the straits should have been number one on the agenda.

    This is great news for oil producing countries - Putin's Russia included.

    And yet another reason to get fracking.
    And exploit our oil in the north sea
    This is insane. The damage an oil shock will do to the UK economy is many multiples the potential gains to our domestic oil industry. That's the the case in the US, where oil production is about 30x times higher than it is here. We are not Russia or Saudi Arabia, even if we maxxed out development and production.

    Thankfully, our domestic renewables are on fixed price contracts and are invulnerable to Iranian drone strikes . It's mad that we could live through a gas shock (Ukraine) and an oIl shock (Iran) and you'll still be banging on about fossil fuels.
    It’s not ‘insane’ you just disagree.

    More supply would help when there’s a constraint somewhere
    Crank up the solar
    Crank up the wind turbines
    Crank up the tidal buoys
    Build another 5 electric hydro mountain like Llanberis

    Renewable
    Renewable
    Renewable

    Ed knows!
    It's not either/or. People are going to be needing oil for at least the next 50-100 years, not maxing out the North Sea but instead paying the Russians/Iranians/Saudis etc for oil we could help ourselves to is completely barmy.

    The North Sea won't have any significant effect on the oil price, but that doesn't matter - the point of drilling for our oil is that HMG will get lots of lovely oil revenue, and the oil companies will create lots of well paid jobs in places like Aberdeen, both of which would do our economic situation a world of good.

    Also, you do realise that building 5 more Dinorwic's will be 30 years and several billion just for the planning process?
    It would actually be cheaper to build a couple of battery factories and make 5 more Dinoric's out of batteries. The numbers crossed over some years ago.

    In addition, you wouldn't site them all in one place. And you don't need a decade long planning enquiry for a few shipping containers of batteries - the Greens got very upset, IIRC, because the previous Conservative government put in an exception for power storage projects below 30 MWh - they aren't considered a power station. That would be about 10 ISO containers.
    It's quite extraordinary how upset people get about batteries. They can be hidden away quite easily - it's not like chucking lots of pylons up, or turbines, or a nuclear power station.
    I agree. Though I think much of the concern comes from the fire hazard.

    Mind you I am probably in the minority as I think we should have a far more dispersed power generation system with mini nukes on the outskirts of every town. Pretty sure I am never going to get majority support for that one.
    It's faked up facebook version of concern about fire risk.

    I think a good part of it comes from the idea that it's something that they can't control. The Green councillors who are prodding away at the chap I know, who is solar farming, seem really frightened by his idea to supply 'leecy direct to the small business centre (re-purposed stable block) he runs.
    Because the old-fashioned Greens appear to care more about reducing economic activity than carbon emissions.

    A future of SMR nuclear and battery storage supplying cheap energy to industry, is their worst nightmare.
    No, it's more benign than that in 90% of cases. People have a deep emotional attachment to the countryside, and do not like seeing it developed. People not keen on the idea of nuclear waste and have an irrational fear of a nuclear disaster.

    On 1) replacing a monoculture field with solar panels or batteries is usually better, overall, for the environment. But this is lost on these folks. They are also the sort of people who complain about beavers taking out trees, or removing sheep from uplands.
    On 2) not even worth trying to argue against this one. Nuclear has a very bad rep and it's difficult to shift.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,129
    Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu:

    "Our forces are now striking at the heart of Tehran with increasing intensity, and this will only intensify further in the coming days.

    We are in a campaign in which we are bringing the full power of the IDF to bear, as never before, in order to ensure our existence and our future.

    The combined effort with the United States enables us to do what I have long sought to do for 40 years — to decisively strike the terror regime."
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,347
    edited 4:15PM

    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)

    AIUI in the USA, around 2/3 of the Iranian-American community is not Muslim, and a lot of them are refugees of expellees of various types.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,128
    Yanks lose three servicemen in "Iran operation"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,804
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    It’s been a bad couple of years to be a friend of Russia.

    To paraphrase Kissinger:

    To be Russia’s enemy is dangerous. To be their ally is lethal.

    Do they have any allies left?
    Outside the White House? Not many, Orban, Fico, Lukashenko, all the good guys.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700

    Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu:

    "Our forces are now striking at the heart of Tehran with increasing intensity, and this will only intensify further in the coming days.

    We are in a campaign in which we are bringing the full power of the IDF to bear, as never before, in order to ensure our existence and our future.

    The combined effort with the United States enables us to do what I have long sought to do for 40 years — to decisively strike the terror regime."

    All power to their elbow.

    We should be using the RAF and our full military and intelligence power to support them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,823
    edited 4:21PM
    Battlebus said:

    Quick question. Brother who is a long time resident of Australia refers to Trump as a Sentinel. Not a phrase I have come across and assume it is a positive view.

    Translation please

    Sentinel (Marvel comics).
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,101

    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)

    In principle going after the Mullahs is a great idea. I am not so sure it will be as collateral free as the hawks on here are suggesting. I hope they are correct.
    Yep. Killing people and blowing things up is the easy part.

    Building a decent and successful society in a divided, traumatised and heavily armed country with no tradition of good government is infinitely harder, and Trump and Netanyahu are the two last people in the world who should be trying to do it.

    But we are where we are, and for the sake of Iran and the Middle East I wish them luck now they've started.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,700
    edited 4:20PM
    Fishing said:

    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)

    In principle going after the Mullahs is a great idea. I am not so sure it will be as collateral free as the hawks on here are suggesting. I hope they are correct.
    Yep. Killing people and blowing things up is the easy part.

    Building a decent and successful society in a divided, traumatised and heavily armed country with no tradition of good government is infinitely harder, and Trump and Netanyahu are the two last people in the world who should be trying to do it.

    But we are where we are, and for the sake of Iran and the Middle East I wish them luck now they've started.
    Tear the whole rotten edifice down, then let the locals rebuild something new.

    Persia has a long and dignified history.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,597
    Leon said:

    MelonB said:

    Sandpit said:

    CNN interview with UAE international relations minister.

    https://x.com/dansemperepico/status/2028100794864840831

    "We have, before this began, been very clear about not having our territories be used to attack Iran. We have always encouraged dialogue and we have wanted to make sure that it doesn't amount to this because our region doesn't need another war."

    "By the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that. And really the ball is in Iran's court right now about how they want to deal with a neighborhood and a neighbor that has traditionally been a very fair and good neighbor to them."

    "We're not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks that are unlawful and unjustified."

    Other passive beneficiaries of UAE’s troubles this week: Singapore and Switzerland.
    And London

    Dubai really is in a pickle. Their whole shtick is “oasis of safety and stability” and sure, you can leave your phone on a table and it won’t be nicked, but people are super sensitive and averse to the possibility of being randomly bombed

    If the war ends tomorrow it would still take a while for them to repair the reputational damage. But it seems unlikely the war will end tomorrow

    1. The Iranians are going for the Samson Option - tear down the world - especially the Gulf States (not least because they can’t attack the USA directly, so the UAE etc is the next best thing)

    2. If we get regime change then that will still be months or years of instability - right next to Dubai

    3. If we don’t get regime change then a newly angry hostile Iran will make Dubai very uncomfortable

    So I don’t see how the UAE, Qatar, etc, avoid serious damage of various kinds
    Do we want all those Dubai ex-pats back?

    The picture for the Gulf nations is clear - don't piss off the US, but they really have no security from their friendship with the Great Oaf. It's going to be increasingly attractive for them to build better relations with China. US diplomats are going to have to work very hard in the region.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,203
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    MelonB said:

    Sandpit said:

    CNN interview with UAE international relations minister.

    https://x.com/dansemperepico/status/2028100794864840831

    "We have, before this began, been very clear about not having our territories be used to attack Iran. We have always encouraged dialogue and we have wanted to make sure that it doesn't amount to this because our region doesn't need another war."

    "By the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that. And really the ball is in Iran's court right now about how they want to deal with a neighborhood and a neighbor that has traditionally been a very fair and good neighbor to them."

    "We're not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks that are unlawful and unjustified."

    Other passive beneficiaries of UAE’s troubles this week: Singapore and Switzerland.
    And London

    Dubai really is in a pickle. Their whole shtick is “oasis of safety and stability” and sure, you can leave your phone on a table and it won’t be nicked, but people are super sensitive and averse to the possibility of being randomly bombed

    If the war ends tomorrow it would still take a while for them to repair the reputational damage. But it seems unlikely the war will end tomorrow

    1. The Iranians are going for the Samson Option - tear down the world - especially the Gulf States (not least because they can’t attack the USA directly, so the UAE etc is the next best thing)

    2. If we get regime change then that will still be months or years of instability - right next to Dubai

    3. If we don’t get regime change then a newly angry hostile Iran will make Dubai very uncomfortable

    So I don’t see how the UAE, Qatar, etc, avoid serious damage of various kinds
    Do we want all those Dubai ex-pats back?

    The picture for the Gulf nations is clear - don't piss off the US, but they really have no security from their friendship with the Great Oaf. It's going to be increasingly attractive for them to build better relations with China. US diplomats are going to have to work very hard in the region.
    Tax on re-entry, I'd suggest.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,552
    edited 4:23PM
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    MelonB said:

    Sandpit said:

    CNN interview with UAE international relations minister.

    https://x.com/dansemperepico/status/2028100794864840831

    "We have, before this began, been very clear about not having our territories be used to attack Iran. We have always encouraged dialogue and we have wanted to make sure that it doesn't amount to this because our region doesn't need another war."

    "By the same token, if it needs to come to that, it will come to that. And really the ball is in Iran's court right now about how they want to deal with a neighborhood and a neighbor that has traditionally been a very fair and good neighbor to them."

    "We're not going to sit idly by as we continue to be recipients of such a barrage of attacks that are unlawful and unjustified."

    Other passive beneficiaries of UAE’s troubles this week: Singapore and Switzerland.
    And London

    Dubai really is in a pickle. Their whole shtick is “oasis of safety and stability” and sure, you can leave your phone on a table and it won’t be nicked, but people are super sensitive and averse to the possibility of being randomly bombed

    If the war ends tomorrow it would still take a while for them to repair the reputational damage. But it seems unlikely the war will end tomorrow

    1. The Iranians are going for the Samson Option - tear down the world - especially the Gulf States (not least because they can’t attack the USA directly, so the UAE etc is the next best thing)

    2. If we get regime change then that will still be months or years of instability - right next to Dubai

    3. If we don’t get regime change then a newly angry hostile Iran will make Dubai very uncomfortable

    So I don’t see how the UAE, Qatar, etc, avoid serious damage of various kinds
    Do we want all those Dubai ex-pats back?

    The picture for the Gulf nations is clear - don't piss off the US, but they really have no security from their friendship with the Great Oaf. It's going to be increasingly attractive for them to build better relations with China. US diplomats are going to have to work very hard in the region.
    Tax on re-entry, I'd suggest.
    Entry via the HMRC office in East Kilbride. It was always inevitable this was going to happen, and no-one likes a freeloader.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,203
    Fishing said:

    For what it is worth, there have been Iranian demonstrations here in the Seattle area on both sides. Here's an example of a pro-strike demonstration:
    https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/rally-seattle-freeways-us-strikes-iran/281-fa73afb9-3953-452d-a45c-7a2dbca82ff1

    (It's my impression that -- for now-- the pro-strike folks outnumber the anti-strike folks, even in this relatively leftist area.)

    In principle going after the Mullahs is a great idea. I am not so sure it will be as collateral free as the hawks on here are suggesting. I hope they are correct.
    Yep. Killing people and blowing things up is the easy part.

    Building a decent and successful society in a divided, traumatised and heavily armed country with no tradition of good government is infinitely harder, and Trump and Netanyahu are the two last people in the world who should be trying to do it.

    But we are where we are, and for the sake of Iran and the Middle East I wish them luck now they've started.
    Seconded - but sadly they won't be trying to do that.
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