Punters say there’s just a 29% chance the Iranian regime will fall by the end of the month
Punters say there’s just a 29% chance the Iranian regime will fall by the end of the month– politicalbetting.com
This might be the most eventful holiday in the history of PB editors. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor & Lord Mandelson both arrested, the Greens win their first ever by-election, and the Supreme Leader of Iran being assassinated by the Americans & Israelis.
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Ayatollah Khamanei closer !!
First, of course.
Just tuned in and the first thing I saw was Rachel Burdens pants
However Iran isn't showing much sign of capitulating yet. 'God is great. God is great. With deep sorrow, it is announced to the nation of Iran that Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, was martyred today in a joint criminal attack by the United States and the Zionist regime,' the anchor said in a clip posted on X.
The Council described Khamenei as a revered religious Islamic figure, and said his 'long dream of martyrdom became true.' It was noted that Khamenei was killed during the month of Ramadan.
According to the statement, Iranians were said to be mourning the leader's death but enemies of the country should note that 'martyrdom will spark a massive uprising in the fight against oppressors,' the outlet reported.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602967/Iran-Ayatollah-Ali-Khamenei-family-killed-airstrikes-trump.html
Iran has also just appointed a new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian,it seems is still alive while the process of a new Ayatollah appointment begins (which in Iran has rather more significance than our recent appointment of a new Archbishop of Canterbury, not least as women cannot apply). In that sense we are looking at the Shia equivalent of the Papal conclave, a leadership council is now running Iran in the meantime including the President and head of the judiciary
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15602967/Iran-Ayatollah-Ali-Khamenei-family-killed-airstrikes-trump.html
https://www.thenational.scot/news/national/25896933.council-assumes-leadership-duties-succession-process-begins-iran/
(Yes i know for these types its perpetual)
Answer - about as much as the Americans.
But they're not the half with the guns.
A russian-iranian Shahed hits a dormitory. Fire. Evacuations underway.
When it’s Dubai, the world is outraged.
When it’s Kharkiv, the world scrolls past.
Ukrainian lives are not worth less. Our lives are not cheaper.
https://x.com/NAFOvoyager/status/2027992427412300102
Wes Streeting responds to Labour's by-election defeat in a speech at Labour north conference:
"We’ve got to respect the voters by understanding why we lost. We lost because the party that represented hope in the eyes of too many voters wasn’t us.
"I’m sure some of you will have heard the speech made by Hannah Spencer, the winning candidate, on election night. That was a Labour speech."
"We mustn’t fall into the trap of sounding like our attack on the Greens is an attack on hope, or give the impression that there aren’t things that unite us as progressives, or – worst still – allow them to steal our clothes."
"That doesn’t mean we can’t take on the Greens and their positions, we should and we will.
"Because when it comes to the solutions needed to solve our country’s problems, we part ways with the Greens. And when it comes to being able to unite the centre and the left against Reform they don’t stand a chance."
https://x.com/pronouncedalva/status/2027845672553087055?s=61
Most impressive.
One of my close friends and colleagues is an Iraqi who I have known since 1992, shortly after she arrived escaping the first Gulf War. She hated Saddam and in quieter moments has told me of how his secret police "disappeared" medical students from her year.
However she loathes the Islamists who now control Baghdad to the point that her nieces cannot leave the house except in full Niqab, far worse than her fairly secular upbringing, not a lot different to mine in Eighties Britain
And also she hates the US (and Israelis - there being more than a whiff of anti-semitism to her "news" sources on Social Media and Arabic TV) for the destruction of her countryand what she sees as colonial looting of resources.
The enemy of my enemy is not always a friend and people rarely like those bombing their fellow citizens, not least because there is always collateral damage.
Tactical voting at least in 2024 was very strong between Lib Dems and Labour. Not sure if it was as strong between Greens and Labour but I assume so.
What do these voters think now? Are they less likely to vote tactically now due to a hatred of Labour?
Khamenei is dead. Good.
But I have family in Iran. My dad is there right now. And I'm not celebrating yet. Here's why.
Iran built the most layered contingency plan on Earth for this exact moment. Four levels of succession for every key position. Pre-authorized military strikes. Regional commanders who don't need orders from Tehran to act.
As you read this, there is already a new Supreme Leader. We just don't know who.
This isn't Maduro. The government didn't get overthrown. The system absorbed the hit. That's what it was designed to do.
Every credible intel assessment says the same thing: a post-Khamenei Iran is more likely to get harder, not softer. More IRGC. More dangerous. Potentially worse for the Iranian people than Khamenei himself.
Don't breathe yet. There's a long way to go.
https://x.com/Stealx/status/2027844448655495631
I'm not sure about what happens next, if he's right about the regime's resilience.
How long in practical terms can the US sustain a bombing campaign ?
Wes, did we ever get to the bottom of those vans at the by-election, the ones saying the Greens want your daughters for prostitues?
How can we be sure? It was not in their manifesto, which was quite detailed and included reducing postal votes and having PR
Had he left that out, he would have set a stake in the ground.
The final paragraph is unnecessarily arrogant
Contrition is a virtue not a weakness.
War, what war?
There is one of them.
If they go, via the ballot box or via other means, what follows will be a totally different policy or a clone policy but never quite the same.
The Ayatollah is a multi headed Hydra, chop one head off and another emerges, it might be as venomous, more venomous, it's always going to be venomous enough to be very poisonous.
It can and will out live it's slayer one way or another, it may have tens of thousands of lives yet.
I can't say that I have any idea, and realistically no-one else will have either - but of course it will be obvious with hindsight.
The Supreme Leader, Defence minister, army chief of staff and the police intelligence chief is a pretty good start 24 hours in. But maybe it's harder now after the initial attacks.
Ditto the use of the strategic stealth bombers for an extended period. Doing it direct from the USA is much more intensive on use of air tankers.
I think that was from the Telegraph Battle Lines podcast from yesterday - very, very good.
They also did some excellent analysis of what would happen to Iran, in terms of Balkanisation by region (Kurds etc).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_8TPiKxolg&list=PLJnf_DDTfIVAif-vifC6F2aoPB8GIw6dk (45 minutes)
The US and Israel have launched what President Donald Trump has described as "major combat operations" to try to bring about the end of the Iranian regime.
In this bonus episode, Roland and Venetia look at what we know so far - from Trump’s speech to strikes across the Middle East - and what might happen next, while Henry Bodkin, The Telegraph’s Jerusalem correspondent, reports from on the ground in Israel amid air raid sirens around the country.
Plus, Roland speaks to Jonathan Hackett, a 20-year US Marine Corps veteran and special operations capabilities specialist, as well as the author of Iran's Shadow Weapons: Covert Action, Intelligence Operations and Unconventional Warfare. Their conversation - which was recorded shortly before the attack began - covers how Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was offered an escape route but refused to take it, the state of the IRGC and why regime change in Iran will be so difficult.
The Greens, especially after we saw the deputy leader at a demo which was reportedly pro regime yesterday, are pretty much at worst okay with the Mullahs.
https://x.com/kasraaarabi/status/2027828487113809967?s=61
Fail to be the leader and you get the Tories, struggling to get noticed with Reform looking like the part of the right with the momentum (temporarily or otherwise).
Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran
Most of these wallets:
• were funded in the last 24h
• specifically bet for February 28
• bought "yes" hours before the strike
https://x.com/bubblemaps/status/2027718004193300791
The better (but harder) lesson is optimism, I reckon. Starmer, by age, temperament and life story, struggles with that. But if you can combine optimism in politics with realism in government, it's a potent mix.
Your Party may struggle more with that.
Iran just stated that they are going to hit very hard today, harder than they have ever hit before. THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE! Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
https://x.com/GBNews23653867/status/2027899681745867080?s=20
Of course, sometimes things are shit and difficult to fix and the public don't like hearing it, and if you're over optimistic and overpromise people call you out.
So it's a hard line to walk - and people only believe you if they already like you anyway.
Concerned at it costing votes.
https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/2028043564622516693?s=61
If Labour elect somebody and lurch to the proper left I won’t vote for them again.
After yesterday’s over-excited hysteria, a more sober assessment of the impact of events is starting to come through.
I’m sure no one thought the death of Khamanei or indeed most of the immediate leadership would bring the whole house of cards down - it rarely works that way. In 1989, the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe basically gave up and melted away - except Romania. When you have a Gaddafi or a Saddam, their capture or demise means the end of the regime because so much of it is individually invested in them.
Iran isn’t like that - there is a not insignificant portion of the population who are sad and angry at what they see as the murder of their religious leader. Many others are for now keeping their own counsel and that’s probably wise. Absent an occupying military force, it will have to be the population who can force change (back to 1989). Could, would, the regime fight a mass movement on that scale? The Shah couldn’t, the SED couldn’t - do we assume the IRGC would?
Iran isn’t yet completely incapacitated militarily and seems to have drones and missiles to fire at some of its neighbours (though not all). Presumably the job of follow up Israeli and American strikes will be to further weaken that capability and perhaps seek to weaken the IRGC beyond the immediate command structure.
We shouldn’t discount the possibility a new leadership will follow a more pragmatic line toning down the reality if not the rhetoric. I note Hezbollah have decided to sit this one out which has probably spared them an Israeli strike or twenty.
As I argued yesterday, I suspect the one thing everyone wants to avoid is the wholesale collapse of Government and society in Iran. Some on here were actively supportive of anarchy - we’ve never experienced it here. The idea of life without the protective blanket of a functioning civil society isn’t easy to contemplate. No work, no money, no food, no law and order - it’s little wonder some come to look back on repression as preferable and often embrace a new tyranny for the certainties it brings.
Maybe a metaphor.
On top of all the reporting that this war of aggression was planned well in advance, it seems that the reporting also indicates that the US political leadership are quite literally too stupid to understand basic diplomacy. I mean literally not smart enough.
https://bsky.app/profile/diplomatofnight.com/post/3mfxetjh7gs2y
I would have thought that the effect of desalination plants was minimal relative to changes in river outflow and evaporation (due to wind and temperature changes).
Do you have a link?
Version A: Netanyahu and Trump launched their attack in the middle of negotiations, which were just a smokescreen they were putting up.
Version B: Iran has spent the last decades being provocative, so anything goes.
There’s no organised opposition in Iran and all the weapons are in the hands of the regime were some key talking points.
And Trump and Netenyahu telling civilians to take back their country . How !
Actually, it was food poisoning. Woke up with weird shivers and chills then vomited for an hour
Unideal for a 15 hour flight
So with that said, looking ahead to the contest, either this year or next year, the communication and political skills of the replacement are imo more important than what wing of the party they are associated with.
Does not suggest Labour should go very left wing.
Trevor Phillips is one of the best and well informed journalist/ presenter in the media
He has a very impressive cv
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Phillips
Popular culture, eh? It has a lot to answer for.
“You’re not gonna believe this latest story. Over the past few years mossad undercover agents infiltrated as doctors and dentists in Iran. The Dentists gave priority to. Key military, and elite Iranian personnel. While doing a routine dental check up, they implanted tracking devices as fillings for cavities.
“On the other side, Gastro doctors implanted similar devices in their elite patients. Yesterday mossad knew exactly where each one of them were ( komayne’s wife and family members included )and sent missiles at them. Over 400 elite military in government personnel were eliminated in the first few moments ( maybe that’s one of the reasons why they knew where he was hiding )when Israel attacked.”
The mere fact that this *could* be true - it’s probably not, but no one can be sure - must terrify the fuck out of any enemy facing Israel
https://x.com/neveragainlive1/status/2027986181397365014?s=46
But F... F... S... Even if you think the problem with Labour's immigration policy is that it's costing votes, even if it is costing votes, you don't say that bit out loud on national TV.
Once again, Starmer rose due to the lack of a better alternative. He falls when one emerges. At this rate, he will be PM for ages.