I feel a bit sorry for Muslim voters. Their choice in this by-election was between a party open discussing mass-expulsions, another that refuses to criticise the ongoing genocide of a Muslim population, and the Greens.
I come at this from a very different political perspective, but I tend to agree. Moderate muslim voters would really have struggled. I don't think that Matt Goodwin's campaign was run particularly divisively, but I would concede he is a divisive figure.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
I assume they’re really referring to postal votes, where one household member fills in the forms for everyone. But that’s still lazy.
If the 9k figure quoted earlier for postal ballots is accurate, at most it shows a channel where undue influence could happen. It doesn’t show it did happen here, and it doesn’t show those voters wouldn’t have turned out in person anyway.
There is an argument to be had about postal voting, but I think this is not the right one.
Why would they be referring to postal votes?
It is an account specifically about visiting polling stations on election day.
It is an apparently reputable organisation, giving us a kind of examination that we are not used to, so I am inclined to take them seriously until we either have an explanation or more background.
This things get reactions - I can recall the leaning tower of outrage that appeared when Mother Theresa first opened a poverty work in the UK around 1980.
How DARE they suggest such services are required here?
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
If you're a candidate, or an agent, or anyone observing an election with permission - such as a duly appointed polling agent - the presiding officer is right there, with a hotline through to the ERO at the Town Hall, and if you see anything irregular going on, you simply need to have a word.
Big G double checking with his wife who he's supposed to be voting for probably isn't an imprisonable offence, tho
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
The LDs are now essentially boxed in mostly to the Home Counties areas where the Greens aren't established. Had last night's by-election been in, say, East Grinstead, they'd have played the role that the Greens just did, with Reform coming in second, just the same.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Greens fare in the rural seats they picked up at the last GE. Both won on the back of local dissatisfaction with environmental disasters. I suspect they’ll survive and maybe even increase their majorities if the Tory vote continues to collapse, but if there’s a Tory recovery I’m not so sure.
The Greens are no longer an environmental party first and foremost. They are misnamed. The Lib Dems have a long established history of meaningful green policies. They are, arguably, the “Teal” option. I am not worried about Greens eclipsing us, because of anything they’ve abandoned our patch and are playing elsewhere now, in seats where the LDs have always been also-rans.
One thing's for certain: we won't be hearing about Matt Goodwin ever again.
He'll be chosen for a winnable seat for Reform and he'll win. And when he loses next time round he'll be sent to the Lords. Sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings.
The Greens appear to be at a particular point in a cycle. Three things converge: polling rise, great victory in by election, lots of attention. A fourth factor is also in place: their policies at the moment involve uncountable quantities of free money to everyone who might possibly vote for them combined with quick fix solutions to everything.
Reform have had to move on from this, and there is a lot further to go. They have stalled in the polls The Greens might start getting a bit of serious attention now.
It isn't possible to be popular, realistic and truthful about governing in the current climate.
Unless, as mentioned by some posters below, you can start to be identified as a generational voice. Britain has needed a party of the young for many decades now.
The Labour policy seems to have been piss off pensioners, piss off younger people , lose their Muslim voters and chase the Reform vote . I’m actually surprised their polling isn’t worse !
Nigel's huge concern will be that Green is the new Turquoise. He must now be regretting the extent of those Tory defections. Polanski just seems so fresh out the box while Nigel, something of a furniture piece himself, is hobbled with a bunch of crusty old Tory eccentrics. A Reform reset is urgently required.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
I'm intrigued. How do you see that happening?
Because the Greens are now the left-wing protest vote.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
The LDs are now essentially boxed in mostly to the Home Counties areas where the Greens aren't established. Had last night's by-election been in, say, East Grinstead, they'd have played the role that the Greens just did, with Reform coming in second, just the same.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Greens fare in the rural seats they picked up at the last GE. Both won on the back of local dissatisfaction with environmental disasters. I suspect they’ll survive and maybe even increase their majorities if the Tory vote continues to collapse, but if there’s a Tory recovery I’m not so sure.
The Greens are no longer an environmental party first and foremost. They are misnamed. The Lib Dems have a long established history of meaningful green policies. They are, arguably, the “Teal” option. I am not worried about Greens eclipsing us, because of anything they’ve abandoned our patch and are playing elsewhere now, in seats where the LDs have always been also-rans.
The greens truly are the watermelon party now.
A soft Islamic party?
The one with a gay Jeeish Vegan leader?
Similar to those Iranian leftists who supported the overthrow of the Shah.
How well did they get on when the Ayatollahs were in charge ?
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
If you're a candidate, or an agent, or anyone observing an election with permission - such as a duly appointed polling agent - the presiding officer is right there, with a hotline through to the ERO at the Town Hall, and if you see anything irregular going on, you simply need to have a word.
Worth noting that confering over a vote is not illegal, but influencing is.
1.Impressively large Green win. In the febrility of our politics it's easy to forget how unprecedented this is for the Greens - they are a party that fought for decades to win one parliamentary seat, and haven't had a profile like this ever. My hope is that this profile gets them more scrutiny of their economic policies, which is their greatest weakness in my view.
2. On the other hand this is not the existential disaster for the main parties that some are claiming. A by-election is not a GE, and voters are indulging in protest voting to some extent. Labour clearly have no safe seats at the moment, nor do the Tories, but with competent leaders that could merely mean they have to actively win every seat by having a narrative that the public want to hear (as both the Greens and Reform do at present). Whether they do this or not is up to them.
3. Reform performed as expected I'd say - not brilliantly, not a disaster for them. However, with our overly simplistic media narratives I wouldn't be surprised if the 'unstoppable' narrative becomes 'stoppable'. Given it was a protest-y atmosphere, one might have expected them to draw more of the Lab vote away as the Greens clearly did. They hoovered up the Tory vote nicely.
4. The stereotyping of 'the Muslim vote' is unhelpful. We are a democracy. Just as leave voters should be respected for voting with their hearts in the Brexit referendum, any voter in G&D should be respected for voting for the party they believed can best serve Britain and the wider world. If as TSE says, that leads a Muslim voter to vote for a gay white Jew, this is a good thing, not a bad thing. Far better than not voting.
I think many muslims votes for the most pro-Gaza party despite their leader being a gay white Jew. I think if Polanski had been the candidate we would have seen a different story and I think it goes some way to explaining why he dodged the by-election.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
You are missing the point. They are not talking about voiding this by-election or fining anyone, so they do not need investigations and evidence for some non-jury trial in 2028. They're calling for tightening up existing procedures.
I've missed this "tax women with miscarriages" thing. It's seems like a overreaction to a sensible policy to me - do we extend the same logic to child benefit, child element of UC etc etc? I've always thought a tax allowance based on the number of dependent children would be a sensible policy - basic allowance = state pension, £7.5k additional for each child (per household). Bring a single parent with two kids on minimum wage entirely out of tax.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
This is how all election observation is done. The evidence is the witness testimony of the observers. We trust these observers, just as we trust them in somewhere like Zimbabwe or Georgia (to the extent they're allowed to act as observers there).
We have to protect democracy and that means taking this seriously (which also means not overreacting and pretending that it invalidates the overall result).
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
If you're a candidate, or an agent, or anyone observing an election with permission - such as a duly appointed polling agent - the presiding officer is right there, with a hotline through to the ERO at the Town Hall, and if you see anything irregular going on, you simply need to have a word.
Worth noting that confering over a vote is not illegal, but influencing is.
How did these observers detect influencing?
At a polling station, one person is supposed to go into one voting booth.
If there are two people together, in possession of ballot papers and talking to each other, that’s a problem.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
I have no idea however if they are “independent observers” I guess their role is to observe and then report what they see. If it happened and the people running the polling station didn’t do anything to stop it then that is an observation and the electoral commission will need to react and ensure that polling staff prevent it in the future.
When independent observers go to elections around the world they don’t step in at polling and intervene, they observe and report. Dangerous ground if independent observers start intervening as next thing all the parties have “independent observers” at polling stations stepping in and causing chaos.
Democracy Volunteers appear to form a significant and important part of the electoral observer corps in UK elections. They represent about 25% of the total neutral voting observers accredited by the Electoral Commission.
I think a significant element of the voting yesterday was a "Get rid of Starmer - now!" vote.
If Andy Burnham had stood, he would have been seen as the mechanism to bring that about. I think he would have got much closer. Certainly second, maybe even won.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
I have no idea however if they are “independent observers” I guess their role is to observe and then report what they see. If it happened and the people running the polling station didn’t do anything to stop it then that is an observation and the electoral commission will need to react and ensure that polling staff prevent it in the future.
When independent observers go to elections around the world they don’t step in at polling and intervene, they observe and report. Dangerous ground if independent observers start intervening as next thing all the parties have “independent observers” at polling stations stepping in and causing chaos.
Democracy Volunteers appear to form a significant and important part of the electoral observer corps in UK elections. They represent about 25% of the total neutral voting observers accredited by the Electoral Commission.
The response from some posters to the report from Democracy Volunteers this morning is an unfortunate reminder of how widespread and normal motivated reasoning is.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
If you're a candidate, or an agent, or anyone observing an election with permission - such as a duly appointed polling agent - the presiding officer is right there, with a hotline through to the ERO at the Town Hall, and if you see anything irregular going on, you simply need to have a word.
Worth noting that confering over a vote is not illegal, but influencing is.
How did these observers detect influencing?
At a polling station, one person is supposed to go into one voting booth.
If there are two people together, in possession of ballot papers and talking to each other, that’s a problem.
Another one that occurs round the world, is taking a picture of your ballot and showing it to the persons “influencing” your vote
"Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend."
Those busy stereotyping Muslim voters on this thread should consider this. There is a world of difference between communitary solidarity and being told how to vote.
It wasn't just Muslims voting against Goodwin, it was women not wanting to be taxed to force child rearing, and anyone with friends or family that would be persecuted by Reform.
It makes me proud to be British that the people of G and D rejected a rancid skidmark like Goodwin as their MP.
They voted for a party that offers support to Hamas. A party that energised them with foreign language ads playing on anti-Indian, anti-Hindu sentiment - overtly importing sectarian hatreds into the UK
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
And therefore the allegations are baseless if there is no evidence. It's down to he said she said.
You are missing the point. They are not talking about voiding this by-election or fining anyone, so they do not need investigations and evidence for some non-jury trial in 2028. They're calling for tightening up existing procedures.
Which detail exaclty?
Its always been one at a time into the booth, but not in the station itself. You can't stop chatting in the station crush area.
Nigel's huge concern will be that Green is the new Turquoise. He must now be regretting the extent of those Tory defections. Polanski just seems so fresh out the box while Nigel, something of a furniture piece himself, is hobbled with a bunch of crusty old Tory eccentrics. A Reform reset is urgently required.
Not really, Reform don't need to win seats that even voted for Corbyn in 2019 like Gorton and Denton (and its predecessor seats did).
Reform need to win seats that Boris won in 2019 and which then voted for Starmer in 2024, if they start voting against Reform they need to worry but they aren't yet
"Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend."
Those busy stereotyping Muslim voters on this thread should consider this. There is a world of difference between communitary solidarity and being told how to vote.
It wasn't just Muslims voting against Goodwin, it was women not wanting to be taxed to force child rearing, and anyone with friends or family that would be persecuted by Reform.
It makes me proud to be British that the people of G and D rejected a rancid skidmark like Goodwin as their MP.
They voted for a party that offers support to Hamas. A party that energised them with foreign language ads playing on anti-Indian, anti-Hindu sentiment - overtly importing sectarian hatreds into the UK
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
"Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend."
Those busy stereotyping Muslim voters on this thread should consider this. There is a world of difference between communitary solidarity and being told how to vote.
It wasn't just Muslims voting against Goodwin, it was women not wanting to be taxed to force child rearing, and anyone with friends or family that would be persecuted by Reform.
It makes me proud to be British that the people of G and D rejected a rancid skidmark like Goodwin as their MP.
They voted for a party that offers support to Hamas. A party that energised them with foreign language ads playing on anti-Indian, anti-Hindu sentiment - overtly importing sectarian hatreds into the UK
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
I don't think you have even one of the what three words you'd need to locate some morality
@AngelaRayner This result must be a wake up call. It’s time to really listen - and to reflect.
Voters want the change that we promised - and they voted for.
If we want to unrig the system, if we want to make the change we were sent into Government to make, we have to be braver.
A labour agenda that puts people first.
That’s what all of us across our movement need to rededicate ourselves to this morning.
All word salad and no actual policies.
So no change then to when Labour were in opposition.
Apart from she now wants to be in opposition to her own government.
On the contrary
Angela is vastly underrated
She can appeal to those very people who have rejected Blue Tories.
There is a window of opportunity opening, the hard graft of Reeves seeing marked improvement in economy, what Labour need is to shuffle soft left.
Angela will muller Polanski, she will talk to Farage in the more industrial terms the centre left will appreciate.
Miliband as per number 2 would have the respect of the old fashioned Greens pragmatic environmentalism he won't ever go fat enough for them, but he'll go a darned sight further than anyone else in the mainstream.
As Chancellor Darren Jones would have the confidence of the markets and City, be slightly freezer on fiscal policy and he's not Rachel Reeves so straight away a big up tick.
Labour will continue to benefit from reduced migration numbers enhancing some progress started by Sunak and as the left grow and Reform fade the immigration issue fades as Reform mop up the Tories who people a Home Counties and Agricultural protest Group that resemble the Liberal Party under Jeremy Thorpe, a dinosaur that is irrelevant.
No doubt Reform and Green and LD going forwards can have 50 to 100 seats, Nats combined can have 50 to 60,but as the Tories fade below the 40 mark, Labour has to grasp the future and reality.
If it gets this right, permanent Government in supply agreement or loose Coalition as the biggest and only Party that can command 200 to 250 seats and therefire centre left governance of the UK for at least 3 or 4 electoral cycles.
The old 2 Party system Is finished. What Labour has to do and can do is command and control the future.
Looser ties to USa Cliser ties to EU A rebuttal of Russian and Israeli foreign policy Closer to the growing power of China and India Fundamentally Green in Energy policy Multicultural
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
"Gails is the Greggs of the middle class" to quote Mrs Foxy.
Yes any suspected Reform voters trying to enter a Gails are redirected to their nearest Greggs so as not to lower the tone and put its posh customers off their sourdough, cinnamon bun and lattes
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
"Gails is the Greggs of the middle class" to quote Mrs Foxy.
Yes any suspected Reform voters trying to enter a Gails are redirected to their nearest Greggs so as not to lower the tone and put its posh customers off their sourdough, cinnamon bun and lattes
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
I dunno. It strikes me as a moderately useful result for the Lib Dems, in that there's now a potential ally for them winning seats they wouldn't have fought anyway. Suburban/rural constituencies with a Gail's can vote Lib Dem, and urban constituencies full of graduates can vote Green. I'd be interested to see how many Lib Dem/Green battles there might be, but I suspect the answer is "not many".
Certainly here in Oxfordshire it makes it pretty clear that, at the next election, the Greens need to concentrate on winning Oxford East while the Lib Dems need to concentrate on winning Banbury.
"Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend."
Those busy stereotyping Muslim voters on this thread should consider this. There is a world of difference between communitary solidarity and being told how to vote.
It wasn't just Muslims voting against Goodwin, it was women not wanting to be taxed to force child rearing, and anyone with friends or family that would be persecuted by Reform.
It makes me proud to be British that the people of G and D rejected a rancid skidmark like Goodwin as their MP.
They voted for a party that offers support to Hamas. A party that energised them with foreign language ads playing on anti-Indian, anti-Hindu sentiment - overtly importing sectarian hatreds into the UK
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
We've taken our first step on the road to becoming an Islamist theocracy, I fear.
Very interesting, how big the Mail is suddenly going on the Greens today.
"Gloating Greens predict they will crush Labour with 100 seats at the General Election" , is their main morning story for the day.
Yet if that ever looks like to happen, the Mail will roll out some anti-Green story along the lines of its "Clegg in NAZI slur" headline of 22 April 2010.
They’re out of volunteers for the meat grinder, and even the foreigners have stopped signing up for what they now see is certain death or serious injury.
Very interesting, how big the Mail is suddenly goimg on the Greens today.
"Gloating Greens predict they will crush Labour with 100 seats at the General Election" , is their main story.
The right-wing media has rather shot itself in the foot. They went full on in destroying Sir Keir thinking it would pave the way for a triumphant Nigel, but it now looks like it will pave the way for a triumphant Zak. Careful what you wish for and all that.
"Family interference" in UK politics is nothing new.
The fact a guy in a turban or Muslim or Jewish attire does it now S nothing new.
For generations the mainstream party votes were based on the patriarch doing what his father and grandfather had done. Educate brainwash bribe the kids to vote the way we always have.
More prevalent and successful for the Tories, quite simply because a Tory vote labelled you "middle class" at least, not like the riff raff Labour lot.
I chslkenge anyone over 50 not to recognise this, it was endemic.
@AngelaRayner This result must be a wake up call. It’s time to really listen - and to reflect.
Voters want the change that we promised - and they voted for.
If we want to unrig the system, if we want to make the change we were sent into Government to make, we have to be braver.
A labour agenda that puts people first.
That’s what all of us across our movement need to rededicate ourselves to this morning.
All word salad and no actual policies.
So no change then to when Labour were in opposition.
Apart from she now wants to be in opposition to her own government.
On the contrary
Angela is vastly underrated
She can appeal to those very people who have rejected Blue Tories.
There is a window of opportunity opening, the hard graft of Reeves seeing marked improvement in economy, what Labour need is to shuffle soft left.
Angela will muller Polanski, she will talk to Farage in the more industrial terms the centre left will appreciate.
Miliband as per number 2 would have the respect of the old fashioned Greens pragmatic environmentalism he won't ever go fat enough for them, but he'll go a darned sight further than anyone else in the mainstream.
As Chancellor Darren Jones would have the confidence of the markets and City, be slightly freezer on fiscal policy and he's not Rachel Reeves so straight away a big up tick.
Labour will continue to benefit from reduced migration numbers enhancing some progress started by Sunak and as the left grow and Reform fade the immigration issue fades as Reform mop up the Tories who people a Home Counties and Agricultural protest Group that resemble the Liberal Party under Jeremy Thorpe, a dinosaur that is irrelevant.
No doubt Reform and Green and LD going forwards can have 50 to 100 seats, Nats combined can have 50 to 60,but as the Tories fade below the 40 mark, Labour has to grasp the future and reality.
If it gets this right, permanent Government in supply agreement or loose Coalition as the biggest and only Party that can command 200 to 250 seats and therefire centre left governance of the UK for at least 3 or 4 electoral cycles.
The old 2 Party system Is finished. What Labour has to do and can do is command and control the future.
Looser ties to USa Cliser ties to EU A rebuttal of Russian and Israeli foreign policy Closer to the growing power of China and India Fundamentally Green in Energy policy Multicultural
How can Rayner be underrated when we have people continually telling us how brilliant she is ?
@Steven_Swinford This is the official Labour line this morning. Labour is comparing the Greens to Galloway and his failure to build on his own electoral successes
Labour source: “The Greens can win a by-election, but they cannot win a general election.
“George Galloway - who backed the Greens in this by-election - won seats mid-term, only to lose them again. And he certainly never became PM.
“The Green Party’s policies, including legalising all drugs and withdrawing from NATO, are not a serious programme for government."
The odd thing about this strategy is that Labour spent the entire by-election trying to pretend that the Greens didn't exist
Starmer said repeatedly that Labour was in a 'straight fight' with Reform UK. The Greens were excised from bar charts on leaflets. It attempted to present a genuine three-horse raise as a binary. The whole strategy looks surreal
As well as being not much cop at governing, it's also surprising just how bad this Starmer led government is at politics. I'm increasingly of the belief that Labour didn't win the general election, but simply benefitted from the Tories losing it on a grand scale. The trouble is now that the Tories are out of office and no longer taking the flack, Labours lack of ability, planning, ambition, leadership, and communication is really obvious to even the sort of person who "doesn't do politics". Labour need a miracle to turn this around, and we had all better hope they find one, as we face a government of Reform or the Greens, which I am certain will be every bit as disasterous as MAGA-GOP in the US is.
"Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend."
Those busy stereotyping Muslim voters on this thread should consider this. There is a world of difference between communitary solidarity and being told how to vote.
It wasn't just Muslims voting against Goodwin, it was women not wanting to be taxed to force child rearing, and anyone with friends or family that would be persecuted by Reform.
It makes me proud to be British that the people of G and D rejected a rancid skidmark like Goodwin as their MP.
They voted for a party that offers support to Hamas. A party that energised them with foreign language ads playing on anti-Indian, anti-Hindu sentiment - overtly importing sectarian hatreds into the UK
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
‘There won’t be that many, you’re scaremongering’
‘Ok there are more than we thought, but they’ll integrate eventually’
‘We have to learn to live together in a multicultural society, the 1950s have gone’
Nigel's huge concern will be that Green is the new Turquoise. He must now be regretting the extent of those Tory defections. Polanski just seems so fresh out the box while Nigel, something of a furniture piece himself, is hobbled with a bunch of crusty old Tory eccentrics. A Reform reset is urgently required.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
I have no idea however if they are “independent observers” I guess their role is to observe and then report what they see. If it happened and the people running the polling station didn’t do anything to stop it then that is an observation and the electoral commission will need to react and ensure that polling staff prevent it in the future.
When independent observers go to elections around the world they don’t step in at polling and intervene, they observe and report. Dangerous ground if independent observers start intervening as next thing all the parties have “independent observers” at polling stations stepping in and causing chaos.
Democracy Volunteers appear to form a significant and important part of the electoral observer corps in UK elections. They represent about 25% of the total neutral voting observers accredited by the Electoral Commission.
Lets be honest, this is just about a further drift to voter supression in the UK
1) A comparativlely difficult voter regsitration process by European standard.
2) Spurious requirement for photo ID that blatantly discriminated against the young & BME population.
3) Largely bogus suspicion over postal voting the use of which might be summed up as 'White pensioners good' / 'South Asian women bad'.
4) 'Independent' monitoring that is statistically dubious, targetting polling stations in predominantly asian area, exaggerating the issue and fanning the flames of look what "they" are doing now.
It's a repeat of Caerphilly. A not-Labour party can win big against Reform in a Labour seat. Tactical voting works, but you can only have one target, which is Reform in this case, I think.
How this plays out across the very large Labour estate, I'm not sure, but it doesn't look good for Labour.
Should add, while desperate for Labour, it was an equally bad loss for Goodwin. Reform was competing for third place with the tactically voted against Labour, miles behind the winners. Not where an insurgent party needs to be.
"Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend."
Those busy stereotyping Muslim voters on this thread should consider this. There is a world of difference between communitary solidarity and being told how to vote.
It wasn't just Muslims voting against Goodwin, it was women not wanting to be taxed to force child rearing, and anyone with friends or family that would be persecuted by Reform.
It makes me proud to be British that the people of G and D rejected a rancid skidmark like Goodwin as their MP.
They voted for a party that offers support to Hamas. A party that energised them with foreign language ads playing on anti-Indian, anti-Hindu sentiment - overtly importing sectarian hatreds into the UK
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
‘There won’t be that many, you’re scaremongering’
‘Ok there are more than we thought, but they’ll integrate eventually’
‘We have to learn to live together in a multicultural society, the 1950s have gone’
‘Allahu Akbar!’
Contemporary right wing discourse seems to entirely consist of reposting content from the 19th century with the word "Jewish" hastily scratched out and replaced with "Muslim"
Question: if you do care about the environment, passionately, from global warming to cleaner rivers, but you’re somewhat less keen on supporting Hamas or hating Hindus, exactly who are you meant to vote for now?
The Greens are entirely vacating the traditional “green” sector of British politics
It’s quite peculiar. Presumably some other party will seize that ground. Indeed it might be a useful way for Labour to recover. Eventually
Reform will use the nuttiness of the Greens as a reason to vote for them to stop it. I think last nights by election result will help Farage and Co in the long run. People can see that voting Green is voting for Islam, and there’s a big enough market for stopping that
Wow. This one merits the hype. Terrible for Labour, disappointing but solid enough for Reform, given such a poor top-down carpetbagging choice of candidate, and truly spectacular for Polanski and the Greens. Not close at all (except for second between Labour and Reform and for nowhere between the Cons and the LDs).
Congrats to PBers who got on at a good price a few weeks ago and to those yesterday who predicted not the win (since it was odds-on by then) but the big win. I will earn no plaudits whatsoever for announcing here for the very first time that I had this as a likely scenario. So I won’t.
The fabled ‘Realignment of British Politics’ has officially arrived then. Leaving aside partisan crows and bleats and red herring talk of ‘Burnham’ this has to be the main takeout. GRN are as much a threat to LAB as RUK are to CON. We have genuine 5 party politics in England and 7 in GB. What a fascinating period. Glad to be on PB for it.
I see a particular fiendish symmetry in the (precarious) position of the old duopoly parties. The Cons have a serious national challenger to their Right (Reform) plus a specific threat to their Left in their traditional heartlands (the LDs in the affluent southern shires). Labour have a serious national challenger to their Left (Greens) plus a specific threat to their Right in their traditional heartlands (Reform in the red wall).
Between a Rock and a Hard, the both of them. I can’t speak for the Tories, that would be impertinent, but I can for Labour and I’m afraid the stock phrase ‘no easy answers’ applies. In fact it might be a case of no answers at all. Why must everything have an answer? Fwiw my view is there are two necessary (but still not necessarily sufficient) conditions for Labour to have a decent chance of largest party at the next GE. The economy picks up and stays up. SKS is replaced by a much better communicator. The second being more in their power than the first.
I've just had another nibble laying that at about 3. That's moved out a bit but to me probably still value.
6/1 for the Tories looks quite tasty to me. There’s no way they are getting a majority but their odds of having a plurality in a very split and chaotic Parliament seem to me to be significantly increased by the growth of the Greens eating into the Labour vote.
Mainstream: "This loss was avoidable. Angeliki, members and our party staff worked tirelessly, but our leader and sections of the NEC blocked the one candidate who could have won it for us. That decision now looks like a catastrophic error."
Compass: "Labour’s leadership has turned its back on the nation’s progressive majority and blocked the only candidate – in Andy Burnham – who could have spoken for this hopeful future. The two party stranglehold on the UK’s politics looks broken. Only a progressive alliance can defeat Reform and the causes of Reform.”
Momentum: "Hundreds of hardworking Labour candidates up and down the country could face defeat in May. It’s time for a complete change in direction: the control-freakery and top-down politics has to end."
Meanwhile the BBC is reporting that some inside Labour really did think they were on for a hold.
Polanski and Spencer now speaking at the Green victory rally...
Wow. This one merits the hype. Terrible for Labour, disappointing but solid enough for Reform, given such a poor top-down carpetbagging choice of candidate, and truly spectacular for Polanski and the Greens. Not close at all (except for second between Labour and Reform and for nowhere between the Cons and the LDs).
Congrats to PBers who got on at a good price a few weeks ago and to those yesterday who predicted not the win (since it was odds-on by then) but the big win. I will earn no plaudits whatsoever for announcing here for the very first time that I had this as a likely scenario. So I won’t.
The fabled ‘Realignment of British Politics’ has officially arrived then. Leaving aside partisan crows and bleats and red herring talk of ‘Burnham’ this has to be the main takeout. GRN are as much a threat to LAB as RUK are to CON. We have genuine 5 party politics in England and 7 in GB. What a fascinating period. Glad to be on PB for it.
I see a particular fiendish symmetry in the (precarious) position of the old duopoly parties. The Cons have a serious national challenger to their Right (Reform) plus a specific threat to their Left in their traditional heartlands (the LDs in the affluent southern shires). Labour have a serious national challenger to their Left (Greens) plus a specific threat to their Right in their traditional heartlands (Reform in the red wall).
Between a Rock and a Hard, the both of them. I can’t speak for the Tories, that would be impertinent, but I can for Labour and I’m afraid the stock phrase ‘no easy answers’ applies. In fact it might be a case of no answers at all. Why must everything have an answer? Fwiw my view is there are two necessary (but still not necessarily sufficient) conditions for Labour to have a decent chance of largest party at the next GE. The economy picks up and stays up. SKS is replaced by a much better communicator. The second being more in their power than the first.
Reform will use the nuttiness of the Greens as a reason to vote for them to stop it. I think last nights by election result will help Farage and Co in the long run. People can see that voting Green is voting for Islam, and there’s a big enough market for stopping that
Presumably yesterday many voter in G & D decided Green nuttiness was preferrable to Reform nuttiness.
Question: if you do care about the environment, passionately, from global warming to cleaner rivers, but you’re somewhat less keen on supporting Hamas or hating Hindus, exactly who are you meant to vote for now?
The Greens are entirely vacating the traditional “green” sector of British politics
It’s quite peculiar. Presumably some other party will seize that ground. Indeed it might be a useful way for Labour to recover. Eventually
Yes, Labour I suppose. Unless they tack to the left under a new leader.
Mainstream: "This loss was avoidable. Angeliki, members and our party staff worked tirelessly, but our leader and sections of the NEC blocked the one candidate who could have won it for us. That decision now looks like a catastrophic error."
Compass: "Labour’s leadership has turned its back on the nation’s progressive majority and blocked the only candidate – in Andy Burnham – who could have spoken for this hopeful future. The two party stranglehold on the UK’s politics looks broken. Only a progressive alliance can defeat Reform and the causes of Reform.”
Momentum: "Hundreds of hardworking Labour candidates up and down the country could face defeat in May. It’s time for a complete change in direction: the control-freakery and top-down politics has to end."
Meanwhile the BBC is reporting that some inside Labour really did think they were on for a hold.
As I mentioned before, if they really did think that and it wasn’t just a projection of confidence in a last-ditch attempt to show they were the main left wing challengers to Ref, then they are screwed in May. It suggests a loss of confidence in canvas returns which will be very troubling. Labour have always had strength in these urban, multicultural seats in knowing how the wind is blowing.
Question: if you do care about the environment, passionately, from global warming to cleaner rivers, but you’re somewhat less keen on supporting Hamas or hating Hindus, exactly who are you meant to vote for now?
The Greens are entirely vacating the traditional “green” sector of British politics
It’s quite peculiar. Presumably some other party will seize that ground. Indeed it might be a useful way for Labour to recover. Eventually
Curiously, early Dave enjoyed considerable success with that very ruse. It was only when he ventured into the horror show of Tory EU politics that everything exploded.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
I'm intrigued. How do you see that happening?
Because the Greens are now the left-wing protest vote.
I don't see much likelihood of the Greens challenging the LD hegemony here in the Cotswolds. Stroud might be the stand-out. A collapse of the Labour vote there might lead to an LD/Green shoot out (that would be fun!) but then Stroud is 'idiosyncratic' to put it mildly.
Question: if you do care about the environment, passionately, from global warming to cleaner rivers, but you’re somewhat less keen on supporting Hamas or hating Hindus, exactly who are you meant to vote for now?
The Greens are entirely vacating the traditional “green” sector of British politics
It’s quite peculiar. Presumably some other party will seize that ground. Indeed it might be a useful way for Labour to recover. Eventually
Should be the Lib Dems. But they are busy opposing cycle infrastructure round me, so immediately disqualified.
"Despite Reform’s divisive rhetoric, thousands of Muslims voted for a party led by a gay Jew man, if that doesn’t scream integration, I don’t know what does. I predict the Faragist right will struggle to deal with this, Elizabeth Kübler-Ross is your friend."
Those busy stereotyping Muslim voters on this thread should consider this. There is a world of difference between communitary solidarity and being told how to vote.
It wasn't just Muslims voting against Goodwin, it was women not wanting to be taxed to force child rearing, and anyone with friends or family that would be persecuted by Reform.
It makes me proud to be British that the people of G and D rejected a rancid skidmark like Goodwin as their MP.
They voted for a party that offers support to Hamas. A party that energised them with foreign language ads playing on anti-Indian, anti-Hindu sentiment - overtly importing sectarian hatreds into the UK
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
‘There won’t be that many, you’re scaremongering’
‘Ok there are more than we thought, but they’ll integrate eventually’
‘We have to learn to live together in a multicultural society, the 1950s have gone’
‘Allahu Akbar!’
Contemporary right wing discourse seems to entirely consist of reposting content from the 19th century with the word "Jewish" hastily scratched out and replaced with "Muslim"
Whereas leftists have copied the antisemitism of the 19th century and added the word Israel.
Those Labour MPs rushing out their new strategy proposals need to just stop. There's no point even beginning to map a new strategy for Labour until Starmer has gone. He's such a distorting prism. Everyone, everywhere hates him. It may not be fair, but it's the political reality.
They’re out of volunteers for the meat grinder, and even the foreigners have stopped signing up for what they now see is certain death or serious injury.
They are eating their seed corn and the economic consequences of this disaster will blight them for decades. They had a demographic problem: they now face a catastrophe.
"Family interference" in UK politics is nothing new.
The fact a guy in a turban or Muslim or Jewish attire does it now S nothing new.
For generations the mainstream party votes were based on the patriarch doing what his father and grandfather had done. Educate brainwash bribe the kids to vote the way we always have.
More prevalent and successful for the Tories, quite simply because a Tory vote labelled you "middle class" at least, not like the riff raff Labour lot.
I chslkenge anyone over 50 not to recognise this, it was endemic.
Let's be clear. You are right that the heritability of voting is off the scale (same with class which might not be just a coincidence). This is not the same thing. HTH.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
The role of the observers is to observe, not to interfere.
Is it not their role to report criminality when they see it?
When I visited the seat I was struck just how many people liked the Greens and/or Spencer. But more importantly they knew what they didn’t want to happen, which was to wake up with a Reform MP, particularly one such as Matthew Goodwin, whose public pronouncements are so far from moderate opinion and whose statements about Britishness were seen by many people I spoke to as a direct attack on them personally.
Two polls published just before the by-election showed the Greens narrowly ahead. This was decisive in making the Greens the option of choice for anti-Reform voters.
Of the four by-elections that Reform has contested this parliament (two to the Westminster parliament, one to the Senedd in Wales, one in Holyrood) Nigel Farage’s party has won just one of them — in Runcorn, very narrowly. In that race, the previous Labour incumbent had literally been convicted for assaulting one of his own constituents.
Reform keeps adding more and more divisive positions to its platform and as a result, most British voters are going to try to stop it forming a government.
Labour is governing badly and over the past 18 months it has equivocated on the issues on which people most oppose Reform. So, where there is a viable way to stop Reform that doesn’t run through voting Labour, people will often take it. True of Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly and the Greens in Gorton. I’m not saying these parties don’t have an appeal of their own to some voters: they really do.
When I visited the seat I was struck just how many people liked the Greens and/or Spencer. But more importantly they knew what they didn’t want to happen, which was to wake up with a Reform MP, particularly one such as Matthew Goodwin, whose public pronouncements are so far from moderate opinion and whose statements about Britishness were seen by many people I spoke to as a direct attack on them personally.
Two polls published just before the by-election showed the Greens narrowly ahead. This was decisive in making the Greens the option of choice for anti-Reform voters.
Of the four by-elections that Reform has contested this parliament (two to the Westminster parliament, one to the Senedd in Wales, one in Holyrood) Nigel Farage’s party has won just one of them — in Runcorn, very narrowly. In that race, the previous Labour incumbent had literally been convicted for assaulting one of his own constituents.
Reform keeps adding more and more divisive positions to its platform and as a result, most British voters are going to try to stop it forming a government.
Labour is governing badly and over the past 18 months it has equivocated on the issues on which people most oppose Reform. So, where there is a viable way to stop Reform that doesn’t run through voting Labour, people will often take it. True of Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly and the Greens in Gorton. I’m not saying these parties don’t have an appeal of their own to some voters: they really do.
None of these by-elections have been held in an area where Reform is particularly strong, such as almost anywhere in the vicinity of the east coast of England.
Reform will use the nuttiness of the Greens as a reason to vote for them to stop it. I think last nights by election result will help Farage and Co in the long run. People can see that voting Green is voting for Islam, and there’s a big enough market for stopping that
Vote for a misogynistic, islamophobic racist? That's your takeaway from this? Or just your personal view?
If the by-election was won by a large muslim vote, then the conclusion is that misogyny and islamophobia are so unpopular with socially conservative, patriarchal muslims that they'll vote for a very socially liberal Party.
Reform will use the nuttiness of the Greens as a reason to vote for them to stop it. I think last nights by election result will help Farage and Co in the long run. People can see that voting Green is voting for Islam, and there’s a big enough market for stopping that
You could equally say the same thing about the nuttiness of Reform and that voting Reform is voting for fascism. There’s a big enough market for stopping that - perhaps as the turnout shows.
A green campaign would no doubt look very different in Liverpool or Newcastle.
When I visited the seat I was struck just how many people liked the Greens and/or Spencer. But more importantly they knew what they didn’t want to happen, which was to wake up with a Reform MP, particularly one such as Matthew Goodwin, whose public pronouncements are so far from moderate opinion and whose statements about Britishness were seen by many people I spoke to as a direct attack on them personally.
Two polls published just before the by-election showed the Greens narrowly ahead. This was decisive in making the Greens the option of choice for anti-Reform voters.
Of the four by-elections that Reform has contested this parliament (two to the Westminster parliament, one to the Senedd in Wales, one in Holyrood) Nigel Farage’s party has won just one of them — in Runcorn, very narrowly. In that race, the previous Labour incumbent had literally been convicted for assaulting one of his own constituents.
Reform keeps adding more and more divisive positions to its platform and as a result, most British voters are going to try to stop it forming a government.
Labour is governing badly and over the past 18 months it has equivocated on the issues on which people most oppose Reform. So, where there is a viable way to stop Reform that doesn’t run through voting Labour, people will often take it. True of Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly and the Greens in Gorton. I’m not saying these parties don’t have an appeal of their own to some voters: they really do.
In the course of my canvassing in a traditionally Conservative area, the two most commonly expressed voting intentions have been "Reform" and "Whoever is Most Likely to Beat Reform", with "Not Conservative or Labour" in third place. It's certainly shaping up to be an interesting election on May 7th.
Reform will use the nuttiness of the Greens as a reason to vote for them to stop it. I think last nights by election result will help Farage and Co in the long run. People can see that voting Green is voting for Islam, and there’s a big enough market for stopping that
Vote for a misogynistic, islamophobic racist? That's your takeaway from this? Or just your personal view?
If the by-election was won by a large muslim vote, then the conclusion is that misogyny and islamophobia are so unpopular with socially conservative, patriarchal muslims that they'll vote for a very socially liberal Party.
Reform will use the nuttiness of the Greens as a reason to vote for them to stop it. I think last nights by election result will help Farage and Co in the long run. People can see that voting Green is voting for Islam, and there’s a big enough market for stopping that
You could equally say the same thing about the nuttiness of Reform and that voting Reform is voting for fascism. There’s a big enough market for stopping that - perhaps as the turnout shows.
A green campaign would no doubt look very different in Liverpool or Newcastle.
Yes, fair point. It seems sectarian politics is here now, it was inevitable after mass immigration. It will only get nastier
Reform will use the nuttiness of the Greens as a reason to vote for them to stop it. I think last nights by election result will help Farage and Co in the long run. People can see that voting Green is voting for Islam, and there’s a big enough market for stopping that
You could equally say the same thing about the nuttiness of Reform and that voting Reform is voting for fascism. There’s a big enough market for stopping that - perhaps as the turnout shows.
A green campaign would no doubt look very different in Liverpool or Newcastle.
The rightwing talking points on the Greens also seem a little confused. They're simultaneously an incoherent hodge-podge of liberal secularists and religious extremists, and so overall unstable hippy dreamers, and a calculating trojan horse for minorities.
When I visited the seat I was struck just how many people liked the Greens and/or Spencer. But more importantly they knew what they didn’t want to happen, which was to wake up with a Reform MP, particularly one such as Matthew Goodwin, whose public pronouncements are so far from moderate opinion and whose statements about Britishness were seen by many people I spoke to as a direct attack on them personally.
Two polls published just before the by-election showed the Greens narrowly ahead. This was decisive in making the Greens the option of choice for anti-Reform voters.
Of the four by-elections that Reform has contested this parliament (two to the Westminster parliament, one to the Senedd in Wales, one in Holyrood) Nigel Farage’s party has won just one of them — in Runcorn, very narrowly. In that race, the previous Labour incumbent had literally been convicted for assaulting one of his own constituents.
Reform keeps adding more and more divisive positions to its platform and as a result, most British voters are going to try to stop it forming a government.
Labour is governing badly and over the past 18 months it has equivocated on the issues on which people most oppose Reform. So, where there is a viable way to stop Reform that doesn’t run through voting Labour, people will often take it. True of Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly and the Greens in Gorton. I’m not saying these parties don’t have an appeal of their own to some voters: they really do.
None of these by-elections have been held in an area where Reform is particularly strong, such as almost anywhere in the vicinity of the east coast of England.
And thats fine because thats not where most seats are.
Comments
It is an account specifically about visiting polling stations on election day.
It is an apparently reputable organisation, giving us a kind of examination that we are not used to, so I am inclined to take them seriously until we either have an explanation or more background.
This things get reactions - I can recall the leaning tower of outrage that appeared when Mother Theresa first opened a poverty work in the UK around 1980.
How DARE they suggest such services are required here?
Big G double checking with his wife who he's supposed to be voting for probably isn't an imprisonable offence, tho
https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/2027315699442434088
So no change then to when Labour were in opposition.
Apart from she now wants to be in opposition to her own government.
About early May should be long enough.
How well did they get on when the Ayatollahs were in charge ?
How did these observers detect influencing?
https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2027313105764487360
🇬🇧🇫🇷The UK and France are preparing a landing force for Ukraine.
2,000+ elite paratroopers.
“Orion” drills completed.
Landing. Defense. Ceasefire scenarios.
London and Paris say they’re ready to lead a peacekeeping mission.
We have to protect democracy and that means taking this seriously (which also means not overreacting and pretending that it invalidates the overall result).
If there are two people together, in possession of ballot papers and talking to each other, that’s a problem.
https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/135220/pdf/
If Andy Burnham had stood, he would have been seen as the mechanism to bring that about. I think he would have got much closer. Certainly second, maybe even won.
And you are cheering this on. We are halfway lost as a country, and you are morally lost as a person
Its always been one at a time into the booth, but not in the station itself. You can't stop chatting in the station crush area.
Reform need to win seats that Boris won in 2019 and which then voted for Starmer in 2024, if they start voting against Reform they need to worry but they aren't yet
"Gloating Greens predict they will crush Labour with 100 seats at the General Election" , is their main morning story for the day.
Angela is vastly underrated
She can appeal to those very people who have rejected Blue Tories.
There is a window of opportunity opening, the hard graft of Reeves seeing marked improvement in economy, what Labour need is to shuffle soft left.
Angela will muller Polanski, she will talk to Farage in the more industrial terms the centre left will appreciate.
Miliband as per number 2 would have the respect of the old fashioned Greens pragmatic environmentalism he won't ever go fat enough for them, but he'll go a darned sight further than anyone else in the mainstream.
As Chancellor Darren Jones would have the confidence of the markets and City, be slightly freezer on fiscal policy and he's not Rachel Reeves so straight away a big up tick.
Labour will continue to benefit from reduced migration numbers enhancing some progress started by Sunak and as the left grow and Reform fade the immigration issue fades as Reform mop up the Tories who people a Home Counties and Agricultural protest Group that resemble the Liberal Party under Jeremy Thorpe, a dinosaur that is irrelevant.
No doubt Reform and Green and LD going forwards can have 50 to 100 seats, Nats combined can have 50 to 60,but as the Tories fade below the 40 mark, Labour has to grasp the future and reality.
If it gets this right, permanent Government in supply agreement or loose Coalition as the biggest and only Party that can command 200 to 250 seats and therefire centre left governance of the UK for at least 3 or 4 electoral cycles.
The old 2 Party system Is finished. What Labour has to do and can do is command and control the future.
Looser ties to USa
Cliser ties to EU
A rebuttal of Russian and Israeli foreign policy
Closer to the growing power of China and India
Fundamentally Green in Energy policy
Multicultural
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/2027052027558207856
They’re out of volunteers for the meat grinder, and even the foreigners have stopped signing up for what they now see is certain death or serious injury.
"Family interference" in UK politics is nothing new.
The fact a guy in a turban or Muslim or Jewish attire does it now S nothing new.
For generations the mainstream party votes were based on the patriarch doing what his father and grandfather had done. Educate brainwash bribe the kids to vote the way we always have.
More prevalent and successful for the Tories, quite simply because a Tory vote labelled you "middle class" at least, not like the riff raff Labour lot.
I chslkenge anyone over 50 not to recognise this, it was endemic.
Yet not providing any evidence to show why.
And then building grand visions on the vacuous.
‘Ok there are more than we thought, but they’ll integrate eventually’
‘We have to learn to live together in a multicultural society, the 1950s have gone’
‘Allahu Akbar!’
Viewers in the UK have their own more recent programmes.
'Humiliated Tories lose deposit in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election'
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/humiliated-tories-lose-deposit-rutherglen-31119170
1) A comparativlely difficult voter regsitration process by European standard.
2) Spurious requirement for photo ID that blatantly discriminated against the young & BME population.
3) Largely bogus suspicion over postal voting the use of which might be summed up as 'White pensioners good' / 'South Asian women bad'.
4) 'Independent' monitoring that is statistically dubious, targetting polling stations in predominantly asian area, exaggerating the issue and fanning the flames of look what "they" are doing now.
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/reform-uk
The Greens are entirely vacating the traditional “green” sector of British politics
It’s quite peculiar. Presumably some other party will seize that ground. Indeed it might be a useful way for Labour to recover. Eventually
Congrats to PBers who got on at a good price a few weeks ago and to those yesterday who predicted not the win (since it was odds-on by then) but the big win. I will earn no plaudits whatsoever for announcing here for the very first time that I had this as a likely scenario. So I won’t.
The fabled ‘Realignment of British Politics’ has officially arrived then. Leaving aside partisan crows and bleats and red herring talk of ‘Burnham’ this has to be the main takeout. GRN are as much a threat to LAB as RUK are to CON. We have genuine 5 party politics in England and 7 in GB. What a fascinating period. Glad to be on PB for it.
I see a particular fiendish symmetry in the (precarious) position of the old duopoly parties. The Cons have a serious national challenger to their Right (Reform) plus a specific threat to their Left in their traditional heartlands (the LDs in the affluent southern shires). Labour have a serious national challenger to their Left (Greens) plus a specific threat to their Right in their traditional heartlands (Reform in the red wall).
Between a Rock and a Hard, the both of them. I can’t speak for the Tories, that would be impertinent, but I can for Labour and I’m afraid the stock phrase ‘no easy answers’ applies. In fact it might be a case of no answers at all. Why must everything have an answer? Fwiw my view is there are two necessary (but still not necessarily sufficient) conditions for Labour to have a decent chance of largest party at the next GE. The economy picks up and stays up. SKS is replaced by a much better communicator. The second being more in their power than the first.
Mainstream: "This loss was avoidable. Angeliki, members and our party staff worked tirelessly, but our leader and sections of the NEC blocked the one candidate who could have won it for us. That decision now looks like a catastrophic error."
Compass: "Labour’s leadership has turned its back on the nation’s progressive majority and blocked the only candidate – in Andy Burnham – who could have spoken for this hopeful future. The two party stranglehold on the UK’s politics looks broken. Only a progressive alliance can defeat Reform and the causes of Reform.”
Momentum: "Hundreds of hardworking Labour candidates up and down the country could face defeat in May. It’s time for a complete change in direction: the control-freakery and top-down politics has to end."
Meanwhile the BBC is reporting that some inside Labour really did think they were on for a hold.
Polanski and Spencer now speaking at the Green victory rally...
How has last night's by-election loss in Gorton & Denton affected Keir Starmer's potential exit date?
Ladbrokes now give him a 78% chance of being replaced this year and just a 20% chance of leading Labour into the next GE
2026 - 2/7
2027 - 11/2
2028 - 14/1
2029 or later - 9/1
Those Labour MPs rushing out their new strategy proposals need to just stop. There's no point even beginning to map a new strategy for Labour until Starmer has gone. He's such a distorting prism. Everyone, everywhere hates him. It may not be fair, but it's the political reality.
When I visited the seat I was struck just how many people liked the Greens and/or Spencer. But more importantly they knew what they didn’t want to happen, which was to wake up with a Reform MP, particularly one such as Matthew Goodwin, whose public pronouncements are so far from moderate opinion and whose statements about Britishness were seen by many people I spoke to as a direct attack on them personally.
Two polls published just before the by-election showed the Greens narrowly ahead. This was decisive in making the Greens the option of choice for anti-Reform voters.
Of the four by-elections that Reform has contested this parliament (two to the Westminster parliament, one to the Senedd in Wales, one in Holyrood) Nigel Farage’s party has won just one of them — in Runcorn, very narrowly. In that race, the previous Labour incumbent had literally been convicted for assaulting one of his own constituents.
Reform keeps adding more and more divisive positions to its platform and as a result, most British voters are going to try to stop it forming a government.
Labour is governing badly and over the past 18 months it has equivocated on the issues on which people most oppose Reform. So, where there is a viable way to stop Reform that doesn’t run through voting Labour, people will often take it. True of Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly and the Greens in Gorton. I’m not saying these parties don’t have an appeal of their own to some voters: they really do.
https://x.com/uklabour/status/2027095075390427627
The new No.10 Chief of Staff really need to start getting the interns right on the messaging.
If the by-election was won by a large muslim vote, then the conclusion is that misogyny and islamophobia are so unpopular with socially conservative, patriarchal muslims that they'll vote for a very socially liberal Party.
A green campaign would no doubt look very different in Liverpool or Newcastle.
https://x.com/dzismaksym/status/2027320053083832620