Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
Reform certainly need to abandon this notion of forcing the Christianity of the British Empire down everyone's throat. The Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub secularist was probably peak Nigel.
When a core part of the coalition you're seeking to build is white racists it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that you get a great big two fingers from Muslim voters. You can't have your cake and eat it.
Well yes but I agree with Stark Dawning that Refrorm were more widely appealing when they were the Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub-secularist party. White racists or those favouring American style conservative Christianity are a very narrow section of the electorate to go after. The only reasons I can see for doing so are either a) they have mistaken Britain for America, or b) they are personally keen on this stuff. And from what little I know of the individuals in charge, b seems unlikely. I inow I've developed this theme before, but I'm baffled by Reform's tactics. They appear to have missed the open goal - the Sunday afternoon diwn the pub grumblers, who, nevertheless, are no sort of zealots - of whom there are many - and are instead going for a weird coalition of furious Christians, white racists and Thatcherite free marketeers.
Courting the white racist vote puts a ceiling on Reform, you're right. But what is 'very narrow', that's a key question.
I think it's around 10% of the electorate. Or let's say it's far nearer 10% than 1%. You need a proxy since people don't answer 'yes' to 'would you consider yourself to be a racist?' For me the best proxy is having a *very* favourable opinion of Donald Trump. That's been polled a few times and it always gets about the 10% mark. So there, close enough for these purposes, is your white racist vote in this country. 10% if they all came out, but they won't so let's say 7%.
Now that's not huge but it is a non-trivial part of Reform's coalition. It's maybe a quarter of it. If they lose all or most of those voters to no-show and/or to Restore (who are most certainly fishing in that pond) it leaves them with an awful lot of 'Sunday pub grumblers' to win over to fill the gap.
That strikes me as an overestimate. A lot of the 7% are going to be contrarians, idiots, people who really like one niche aspect of him, like that he was in Home Alone 2 (ask Nick Palmer about that sort of thing), or people who didn't read the question properly. I'd say 3% at most. But even if it was 7%, I'd say you could easily get enough Sunday afternoon pub grumblers (this is an archetype of course, they don't physically have to be in the pub on a Sunday afternoon) who might be interested in a 'common sense says...' argument but who are currently turned off by the less attractive aspects of Reform.
How do you define “a racist”
I’m guessing someone like @kinabalu would say that anyone who believes “Islam is incompatible with British values” is a racist. According to YouGov, more than half of Brits believe this. So more than half of Brits are racist. Not “10%”
I am certain that @kinabalu would say that anyone who thinks “Muslim immigrants have had a negative impact on Britain” is racist. That’s 41% of Brits
And so on, and so forth
Like it or not Reform are fishing in a very large pool, probably comprising more than half the British people
It's fundamentalism that is fundamentally incompatible with British values. Applies whether Islamic, Christian, communist, fascist or environmentalist.
But that’s not the question asked
The question was “Is Islam incompatible with British values” and more than half of Brits think it is, indeed, incompatible
That number is only going to go up as well. The source where more and more people get their news is social media, YouTube and from on the ground reports. None of these have the same sensibilities as the BBC when it comes to race politics and immigrant crime. The video of the police woman defending free speech in Whitechapel went mega viral this week and was seen by millions of people as a bunch of Muslims try and bully and threaten a man for reading from the bible and the police woman for telling them that Britain (apparently) has free speech and to politely get fucked while they swarm around her and try and explain that it's "a Muslim area" and that the law of the land doesn't count in "their" part of London.
Reform certainly need to abandon this notion of forcing the Christianity of the British Empire down everyone's throat. The Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub secularist was probably peak Nigel.
When a core part of the coalition you're seeking to build is white racists it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that you get a great big two fingers from Muslim voters. You can't have your cake and eat it.
Well yes but I agree with Stark Dawning that Refrorm were more widely appealing when they were the Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub-secularist party. White racists or those favouring American style conservative Christianity are a very narrow section of the electorate to go after. The only reasons I can see for doing so are either a) they have mistaken Britain for America, or b) they are personally keen on this stuff. And from what little I know of the individuals in charge, b seems unlikely. I inow I've developed this theme before, but I'm baffled by Reform's tactics. They appear to have missed the open goal - the Sunday afternoon diwn the pub grumblers, who, nevertheless, are no sort of zealots - of whom there are many - and are instead going for a weird coalition of furious Christians, white racists and Thatcherite free marketeers.
Courting the white racist vote puts a ceiling on Reform, you're right. But what is 'very narrow', that's a key question.
I think it's around 10% of the electorate. Or let's say it's far nearer 10% than 1%. You need a proxy since people don't answer 'yes' to 'would you consider yourself to be a racist?' For me the best proxy is having a *very* favourable opinion of Donald Trump. That's been polled a few times and it always gets about the 10% mark. So there, close enough for these purposes, is your white racist vote in this country. 10% if they all came out, but they won't so let's say 7%.
Now that's not huge but it is a non-trivial part of Reform's coalition. It's maybe a quarter of it. If they lose all or most of those voters to no-show and/or to Restore (who are most certainly fishing in that pond) it leaves them with an awful lot of 'Sunday pub grumblers' to win over to fill the gap.
That strikes me as an overestimate. A lot of the 7% are going to be contrarians, idiots, people who really like one niche aspect of him, like that he was in Home Alone 2 (ask Nick Palmer about that sort of thing), or people who didn't read the question properly. I'd say 3% at most. But even if it was 7%, I'd say you could easily get enough Sunday afternoon pub grumblers (this is an archetype of course, they don't physically have to be in the pub on a Sunday afternoon) who might be interested in a 'common sense says...' argument but who are currently turned off by the less attractive aspects of Reform.
How do you define “a racist”
I’m guessing someone like @kinabalu would say that anyone who believes “Islam is incompatible with British values” is a racist. According to YouGov, more than half of Brits believe this. So more than half of Brits are racist. Not “10%”
I am certain that @kinabalu would say that anyone who thinks “Muslim immigrants have had a negative impact on Britain” is racist. That’s 41% of Brits
And so on, and so forth
Like it or not Reform are fishing in a very large pool, probably comprising more than half the British people
It's fundamentalism that is fundamentally incompatible with British values. Applies whether Islamic, Christian, communist, fascist or environmentalist.
Does that include Fundamentalist Extremist Unitarians?
“You will be invited, accepted, agreed with and offered weak cups of tea. Or else!!”
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of generational change witb the Greens.
She comes across as a more polished version of Ange.
I don’t think the Tory result is anything but disastrous by the way. Yes, it’s not a target seat for them, yes the usual by election squeeze has hurt them as an also-ran, but they are supposed to be the main standard bearer of centre-right politics in this country, so ending up with 1.9% is dismal, really. A large proportion of that vote has gone to Reform, exactly what they don’t need. The more people start seeing Reform as the leading party of the right, the worse it will get for them.
I still think the only thing they can do tactically is what they’re doing at the moment and hope a Reform decline will allow them back into the game as a more “sensible” option, but let’s not downplay the problems they are in.
According to electionmapsuk, the by-election result if replicated nationally would leave a Tory party in Parliament comprising solely of Bob Blackman. On his own. Except I believe he is stepping down next time around?
Bob Blackman who by a delicious irony is the BJP’s man in Westminster.
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of generational change witb the Greens.
She comes across as a more polished version of Ange.
She's from.a diifferent generation, and also a hint of some sort of different values, I think. That Millennials' mix of idealism and media awareness.
To me, it looks like we've clearly reached an "anybody but Labour" point, from which Labout will not recover this side of the general election. But it remains to be seen whether voters remain splintered between alternatives or manage to solidify behind one party or party leader.
It's all to play for, except if you're Labour - Who look doomed whatever happens. Con probably doomed as well, but Kemi does seem to be getting some traction and is more popular than her party, which can be an encouraging sign at general elections.
I agree. We’re like the Tories after Truss.
The Tories after Truss ticked up in the polls a bit. They then gradually slid to Truss lows because Sunak was rubbish. Granted he wasn't as rubbish as Starmer, but you only come across a gift like that once in a generation.
You’re one of the smarter posters here. Do you really think in Labour they have better options than the hapless Starmer ? Rayner, Streeting, Ed M (heaven forbid), Burnham ?
I can’t see it.
Streeting at least sounds far less robotic than Ace Starmer.
What would Ace Starmer Smoke you for breakfast ?
Taz: I know this probably won't interest you, but I'd hate myself for the rest of my life if I didn't at least suggest it. Ace Starmer: Suggest what, Taz? Taz: If you're interested, I'll be in my quarters at lunchtime, covered in Pineapple Pizza. Ace Starmer: I didn't know your bread was buttered that side, Taz. Taz: It isn't, I've been happily married for 35 years. It's just, a chap like you can turn a guy's head! Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. Lunch is... on Bridget. Taz: Would it make any difference if it was Anchovies? Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. I'm strictly butter-side up! Taz: Understood. [Ace leaves] Taz: What a guy!
Those Labour MPs rushing out their new strategy proposals need to just stop. There's no point even beginning to map a new strategy for Labour until Starmer has gone. He's such a distorting prism. Everyone, everywhere hates him. It may not be fair, but it's the political reality.
If they replace Starmer without a strategy they will end up in the same doom loop.
So they have to work out what the new strategy needs to be, and then choose the person best-placed to implement it.
Edit: Like, I don't think this is an amazing piece of insight on my part. Why is Hodges so superficial and unable to see it? It's supposed to be his job.
Hodges is not just a drama queen he's a clown. Can you imagine a serious journalist coming out with cant like that after lthe loss of a byelection which they almost certainly would have lost whoever the leader?
Hodges used to be very astute. Once he took the Daily Mail shilling he had to dial down the common sense.
It was undoubtedly a great night for the Greens, a potentially existential threat to Labour under FPTP. Not a fantastic night for Goodwin and his bunch of clowns but a brilliant night for Kemi Badenoch's PB Tories, or so it would seem.
I need to go away and reanalyse as I still don't see that last bit.
Why might this Tory disaster be good for them? (Though it probably won't be).
It shows that Reform can't win the next general election, they have peaked, and they are not the only populists in town. What follows is that the Tories can do the hard work of reoccupying their proper gap in the market: centre right, liberal democrat, Burkean, incremental, establishment, quiet, competent, dull.
It’s like all the Centrist Dads ion PB are literally wanking each other to death while saying “Yep, that’s it, Reform are finished”, “Totally agree, they’ve peaked, it’s all over, please cup my balls, “Certainly, also Reform CANNOT win, ooooooh yes”
On the basis of this seat on Reform's target list (pretty far down) then the performance is in line with national polling that, if replicated at a GE, would see them in power. Its also true to suggest that tactical anti-Reform voting is a thing that may stop that happening.
And mainly - far too much importance is ascribed to by-elections mid-term. we do it on here, the media are doing it today.
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
To me, it looks like we've clearly reached an "anybody but Labour" point, from which Labout will not recover this side of the general election. But it remains to be seen whether voters remain splintered between alternatives or manage to solidify behind one party or party leader.
It's all to play for, except if you're Labour - Who look doomed whatever happens. Con probably doomed as well, but Kemi does seem to be getting some traction and is more popular than her party, which can be an encouraging sign at general elections.
I agree. We’re like the Tories after Truss.
The Tories after Truss ticked up in the polls a bit. They then gradually slid to Truss lows because Sunak was rubbish. Granted he wasn't as rubbish as Starmer, but you only come across a gift like that once in a generation.
You’re one of the smarter posters here. Do you really think in Labour they have better options than the hapless Starmer ? Rayner, Streeting, Ed M (heaven forbid), Burnham ?
I can’t see it.
Streeting at least sounds far less robotic than Ace Starmer.
What would Ace Starmer Smoke you for breakfast ?
Taz: I know this probably won't interest you, but I'd hate myself for the rest of my life if I didn't at least suggest it. Ace Starmer: Suggest what, Taz? Taz: If you're interested, I'll be in my quarters at lunchtime, covered in Pineapple Pizza. Ace Starmer: I didn't know your bread was buttered that side, Taz. Taz: It isn't, I've been happily married for 35 years. It's just, a chap like you can turn a guy's head! Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. Lunch is... on Bridget. Taz: Would it make any difference if it was Anchovies? Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. I'm strictly butter-side up! Taz: Understood. [Ace leaves] Taz: What a guy!
As an aside, was saddened to hear of the death of Rob Grant yesterday.
Anyhow, today’s post drops onto my doormat, and, lo!, I have a ‘Dear Ian’ letter from that Nigel Farage, who tells me that Britain is at a turning point. So he personally invites me to a special public meeting on the island on 9th March, to meet the Reform candidates who will apparently be running our local council (which is one budget away from insolvency) after the elections in May. But, broken Britain can apparently be fixed, once council at a time. I’m impressed to hear that Reform councils have already saved millions of pounds, by cutting waste. Nigel is travelling across Britain to meet voters face to face, and I will hear how he will secure our borders, cut the cost of living, bring down energy bills, stop council waste, and put my community first.
Gorton and Denton can be treated as two by elections in one, with both of them heralding doom for Labour. They stand to lose the red wall en masse to Reform and their rainbow coalition seats to the Greens.
I'd be surprised if a party that would leave NATO, throw open our borders, and legalise drugs wins more than 20 seats at the next GE. Can't honestly see them hanging on to 2 of the 4 seats they won at the last GE to be honest. They will also have competition from Corbyn's party for the votes of those that are more concerned with the citizens of Gaza than the citizens of where they live. I don't think too many people are yet aware of what the Green's have become but they will be made aware by the next GE.
As for Reform, I think they will have declined by the next GE and tactical voting will do the rest.
Labour created the monster of harvesting Muslim community bloc votes and yesterday that monster came back to bite them. As I've said many times before, we are a multiracial country, not a multicultural country.
If you stir up grievance politics between groups based on religion or race, as Labour have done for decades, as Reform are seeking to do, and as the Greens have done successfully in this by-election, you are pitting neighbours against each other and you start to unravel the culture of tolerance that makes Britain great.
Our country is not broken, but this by-election showed that Labour, Reform and the Greens are trying very hard to break it. Labour trying to buy people off with more and more benefits spending. Reform telling people you can't be British if you aren't white. The Greens running a nasty, sectarian campaign while simultaneously wanting to legalise crack-cocaine.
Wow. That's actually quite good from Kemi. Did she write it? Thumping Labour while also not giving Reform any satisfaction. If she can continue on that line, with a bit of fleshing out, she may just have found a political sweet spot.
As a black woman with Conservative views, who has described herself as a first generation immigrant, she has already got the political sweet spot, the Tories need to continue to be patient with her. She is perfectly placed to be the non divisive option at the next GE. Badenoch’s ratings are on the up, and that should drag the Conservatives with them.
I am a Kemi defender, mostly, and I agree she needs time, but I think the more the party delivers results like it did last night and cedes the ground of opposition to Reform, the more chance there is that voters simply give up on the party*. The problem isn’t really of Badenoch’s making, but I have made the point that results like last night give Farage much more ammunition to present Reform as some kind of bulwark against a left wing coalition, as opposed to the Tories.
* I fully acknowledge that G&D is never going to be on the Tory target list.
I quite like the various quotes from Kemi discussed downthread. And I think if the Conservative Party decide this result shows they need someone else they are absolutely insane. Which potential leader would have done better? I know HYUFD often suggests that James Cleverly would appeal to LD voters, but squeezing the LD vote in G&D doesn't bring more, and these things are never one way - gains are always netted off with losses.
Labour lost their deposit and even more vote share in Chesham, Somerton and Tiverton and went on to a 400 plus seat landslide. All talk of the negatives of the Tory performance last night is irrelevant nonsense frankly
A Black, Conservative, female PM who pays no mind to tokenism, refuses to hide behind identity politics and has no time for multiculturalism is the left’s worst nightmare, hence their constant dismissal of her.
Hardly.
And I don't think she is PM, but rather LOTR, albeit on borrowed time.
Having got shot of Jenrick and Braverman, she then spurned the One Nation Tories.
So she seems to be aiming at a 10% strategy. There are a whole load of things she is against, but what actually is she for?
There are no obvious alternatives to supplant her so she probably gets to keep the job a bit longer, but what is her strategy? She is polling worse than the worst Tory election result in 2 centuries? How does she reverse that?
Her personal ratings are neck and neck for the best of the current leaders. The Conservatives have lost a load of votes to Reform, after losing hundreds of seats in a disastrous election. Getting those people to come back is an obvious way of reversing the current party VI, and Reform have a decent chance of implosion.
So her strategy is to wait for Reform to implode then hope to recieve some of the fragments?
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Absolutely, and combined with what I was mentioning about the more modem way she comes across, something significant may be happening, here.
Those Labour MPs rushing out their new strategy proposals need to just stop. There's no point even beginning to map a new strategy for Labour until Starmer has gone. He's such a distorting prism. Everyone, everywhere hates him. It may not be fair, but it's the political reality.
If they replace Starmer without a strategy they will end up in the same doom loop.
So they have to work out what the new strategy needs to be, and then choose the person best-placed to implement it.
Edit: Like, I don't think this is an amazing piece of insight on my part. Why is Hodges so superficial and unable to see it? It's supposed to be his job.
Hodges is not just a drama queen he's a clown. Can you imagine a serious journalist coming out with cant like that after lthe loss of a byelection which they almost certainly would have lost whoever the leader?
Hodges used to be very astute. Once he took the Daily Mail shilling he had to dial down the common sense.
It was undoubtedly a great night for the Greens, a potentially existential threat to Labour under FPTP. Not a fantastic night for Goodwin and his bunch of clowns but a brilliant night for Kemi Badenoch's PB Tories, or so it would seem.
I need to go away and reanalyse as I still don't see that last bit.
Why might this Tory disaster be good for them? (Though it probably won't be).
It shows that Reform can't win the next general election, they have peaked, and they are not the only populists in town. What follows is that the Tories can do the hard work of reoccupying their proper gap in the market: centre right, liberal democrat, Burkean, incremental, establishment, quiet, competent, dull.
It’s like all the Centrist Dads ion PB are literally wanking each other to death while saying “Yep, that’s it, Reform are finished”, “Totally agree, they’ve peaked, it’s all over, please cup my balls, “Certainly, also Reform CANNOT win, ooooooh yes”
The combined Reform & Tory vote was 8k in 2024 and 11.3k yesterday.
You shouldn't be trying to suck yourself off while fantasising about the 3rd reich just yet.
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Her speech was good in its own right, but also an uncanny echo of the speeches of Manchester socialists 100-130 years ago. I wouldn't expect the London Guardian to pick up on this and sure enough they didn't, but there was a very Manchester tinge to it, and I would like to think that was deliberate. (I doubt it was.)
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Anyhow, today’s post drops onto my doormat, and, lo!, I have a ‘Dear Ian’ letter from that Nigel Farage, who tells me that Britain is at a turning point. So he personally invites me to a special public meeting on the island on 9th March, to meet the Reform candidates who will apparently be running our local council (which is one budget away from insolvency) after the elections in May. But, broken Britain can apparently be fixed, once council at a time. I’m impressed to hear that Reform councils have already saved millions of pounds, by cutting waste. Nigel is travelling across Britain to meet voters face to face, and I will hear how he will secure our borders, cut the cost of living, bring down energy bills, stop council waste, and put my community first.
Serious question, will you go? In my time I have been to many meetings of parties I would never ever consider voting for (The exception being the NF who I met in other circumstances and who put me in hospital).
Always interesting to get the impressions of a non-supporter for these things.
I assume this point has been made already but I'll say it again anyway. By-elections in G&D and Caerphilly show how it's possible for the highly-motivated anti-Reform vote to coalesce around an 'outside' candidate who is not aiming for immediate power. In a general election, no-one has a clue how others might vote in their particular constituency and are therefore more likely to vote for what they want, and not what they don't want, based on national campaigning issues. I don't want to see Reform prevail, but on the basis of yesterday's vote I'm not assuming they can't.
🚨Reports of breaches of electoral law must be investigated 🚨
Since 1872, secrecy of the ballot has been a fundamental principle of British democracy.
The report published by Democracy Volunteers on the Gorton and Denton Parliamentary by-election says electoral offences were committed. It is completely unacceptable for anyone to be watched or pressured inside a polling station.
I have written to the Electoral Commission requesting a full inquiry.
Breaking: “Due to the ongoing security situation, we have taken the precautionary measure to temporarily withdraw UK staff from Iran. Our embassy continues to operate remotely,” the Foreign Office says
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Her speech was good in its own right, but also an uncanny echo of the speeches of Manchester socialists 100-130 years ago. I wouldn't expect the London Guardian to pick up on this and sure enough they didn't, but there was a very Manchester tinge to it, and I would like to think that was deliberate. (I doubt it was.)
Those Labour MPs rushing out their new strategy proposals need to just stop. There's no point even beginning to map a new strategy for Labour until Starmer has gone. He's such a distorting prism. Everyone, everywhere hates him. It may not be fair, but it's the political reality.
If they replace Starmer without a strategy they will end up in the same doom loop.
So they have to work out what the new strategy needs to be, and then choose the person best-placed to implement it.
Edit: Like, I don't think this is an amazing piece of insight on my part. Why is Hodges so superficial and unable to see it? It's supposed to be his job.
Hodges is not just a drama queen he's a clown. Can you imagine a serious journalist coming out with cant like that after lthe loss of a byelection which they almost certainly would have lost whoever the leader?
Hodges used to be very astute. Once he took the Daily Mail shilling he had to dial down the common sense.
It was undoubtedly a great night for the Greens, a potentially existential threat to Labour under FPTP. Not a fantastic night for Goodwin and his bunch of clowns but a brilliant night for Kemi Badenoch's PB Tories, or so it would seem.
I need to go away and reanalyse as I still don't see that last bit.
Why might this Tory disaster be good for them? (Though it probably won't be).
It shows that Reform can't win the next general election, they have peaked, and they are not the only populists in town. What follows is that the Tories can do the hard work of reoccupying their proper gap in the market: centre right, liberal democrat, Burkean, incremental, establishment, quiet, competent, dull.
I don’t follow this. I don’t think the average voter’s main takeaway from this result is that Reform can’t win the GE - it shows them as the main challenger in an inner-city seat.
There are many reasons why Reform may not win the next GE, but I’m not sure a by election result in a constituency with a 65%+ left wing vote profile tells us much.
The problem the Tories have is that "centre right, liberal democrat, Burkean, incremental, establishment, quiet, competent, dull" was never really the position of the majority of their voters. The majority of Conservative votes came from people who simply wanted the most plausible way of keeping the Labour Party out of power*. This role is now filled for many of them by Reform.
I don't know if Reform will win the next election but I don't think judging their success or failure based on a by-election where almost half of the constituency isn't white and ca. 30% are Muslim is a clever idea. It's probably one of their least likely pick ups based on demographics and they still got 28% of the vote which isn't bad. Reform probably got substantially over half of working class white votes in this constituency which means huge chunks of England and Wales are going to go light blue at the next election and if the Green strategy continues then I suspect that Reform will do even better as more WWC voters are put off by the left pandering to Muslim voters.
The lesson for Labour here is that they need to urgently start concentrating on splitting the Green unholy alliance of progressives and islamists. Labour can probably afford to lose one of those groups but certainly not both. We may go through a period of Labour really pushing LGBT stuff over the next year or so as they seek to force the Greens to either abandon the progressives or be forced to support these progressive policies and keep their fingers crossed that the "community leaders" slink away to whatever other islamist party pops up.
Aside from everything else, the Green alliance between progressives and Islamists (or perhaps just Muslims?) is on a pretty solid foundation of the genocide in Gaza. The SNP have independence, Reform small boats, the Conservatives... Stamp Duty? The point is these things can unify to an extraordinary degree, even when otherwise it's a contradiction.
Labour will find it very difficult to split the two groups, particularly as the ratio of support for Palestinians:Israelis is now 2:1. It's 5:1 among Remain voters, the same among Labour voters. I know the cost of living, NHS etc are in theory more important - but if the Greens keep pushing those topics too (as I see in my YouTube ads) AND are solid on Gaza then I see no path for Labour to take them on.
I actually see a vague route through economy/energy rather than cultural stuff. Shame they are so unimaginative on both.
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Reform certainly need to abandon this notion of forcing the Christianity of the British Empire down everyone's throat. The Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub secularist was probably peak Nigel.
When a core part of the coalition you're seeking to build is white racists it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that you get a great big two fingers from Muslim voters. You can't have your cake and eat it.
Well yes but I agree with Stark Dawning that Refrorm were more widely appealing when they were the Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub-secularist party. White racists or those favouring American style conservative Christianity are a very narrow section of the electorate to go after. The only reasons I can see for doing so are either a) they have mistaken Britain for America, or b) they are personally keen on this stuff. And from what little I know of the individuals in charge, b seems unlikely. I inow I've developed this theme before, but I'm baffled by Reform's tactics. They appear to have missed the open goal - the Sunday afternoon diwn the pub grumblers, who, nevertheless, are no sort of zealots - of whom there are many - and are instead going for a weird coalition of furious Christians, white racists and Thatcherite free marketeers.
Courting the white racist vote puts a ceiling on Reform, you're right. But what is 'very narrow', that's a key question.
I think it's around 10% of the electorate. Or let's say it's far nearer 10% than 1%. You need a proxy since people don't answer 'yes' to 'would you consider yourself to be a racist?' For me the best proxy is having a *very* favourable opinion of Donald Trump. That's been polled a few times and it always gets about the 10% mark. So there, close enough for these purposes, is your white racist vote in this country. 10% if they all came out, but they won't so let's say 7%.
Now that's not huge but it is a non-trivial part of Reform's coalition. It's maybe a quarter of it. If they lose all or most of those voters to no-show and/or to Restore (who are most certainly fishing in that pond) it leaves them with an awful lot of 'Sunday pub grumblers' to win over to fill the gap.
I really don't think that Matt Goodwin would have stood if he thought that he would come 4,000 votes behind Hannah the Plumber. Although, objectively, 28% is not bad for Reform in this seat as with Caerphilly it shows that Reform really are loathed by an awful lot of people. They'll vote for anyone to block Farage.
Reform CANNOT win a general election - their voter coalition is too narrow - even if they CAN do enough damage to the Tories and, to a lesser extent, Labour to prevent them winning, by removing parts of their voter coalitions. However, the LibDems and Greens are immune to Nige's charms.
The most likely result of the next GE is surely a left-of-centre Govt involving all or some of Labour, LibDems and Greens.
What happens after 2029 to the right will be of interest. Will Reform (minus, presumably, the retired 64 yr old Farage) be able to sustain its momentum even if its obvious they are too marmite to win an election? I suspect not. But it will require the Tories to keep their heads above water and return a credible number of MPs to re-emerge as the predominant right-of-centre option.
I don’t think the by-election shows that people will vote for anyone to block Farage. That underestimates the popularity of Spencer and the Greens in their own right.
What happens post-2029? Presumably Jenrick’s game plan is that he becomes leader of Reform and takes them into a merger with whatever’s left of the Tories.
If he had any sense it would have worked the other way round, ie, succeeds Kemi as Tory leader, and then merges Tories with post-Farage Reform. He messed up.
To me, it looks like we've clearly reached an "anybody but Labour" point, from which Labout will not recover this side of the general election. But it remains to be seen whether voters remain splintered between alternatives or manage to solidify behind one party or party leader.
It's all to play for, except if you're Labour - Who look doomed whatever happens. Con probably doomed as well, but Kemi does seem to be getting some traction and is more popular than her party, which can be an encouraging sign at general elections.
I agree. We’re like the Tories after Truss.
The Tories after Truss ticked up in the polls a bit. They then gradually slid to Truss lows because Sunak was rubbish. Granted he wasn't as rubbish as Starmer, but you only come across a gift like that once in a generation.
You’re one of the smarter posters here. Do you really think in Labour they have better options than the hapless Starmer ? Rayner, Streeting, Ed M (heaven forbid), Burnham ?
I can’t see it.
Streeting at least sounds far less robotic than Ace Starmer.
What would Ace Starmer Smoke you for breakfast ?
Taz: I know this probably won't interest you, but I'd hate myself for the rest of my life if I didn't at least suggest it. Ace Starmer: Suggest what, Taz? Taz: If you're interested, I'll be in my quarters at lunchtime, covered in Pineapple Pizza. Ace Starmer: I didn't know your bread was buttered that side, Taz. Taz: It isn't, I've been happily married for 35 years. It's just, a chap like you can turn a guy's head! Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. Lunch is... on Bridget. Taz: Would it make any difference if it was Anchovies? Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. I'm strictly butter-side up! Taz: Understood. [Ace leaves] Taz: What a guy!
As an aside, was saddened to hear of the death of Rob Grant yesterday.
Same here. I did post a link to the news yesterday.
I never knew he wrote , or co wrote, a number one hit.
Reform certainly need to abandon this notion of forcing the Christianity of the British Empire down everyone's throat. The Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub secularist was probably peak Nigel.
When a core part of the coalition you're seeking to build is white racists it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that you get a great big two fingers from Muslim voters. You can't have your cake and eat it.
Well yes but I agree with Stark Dawning that Refrorm were more widely appealing when they were the Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub-secularist party. White racists or those favouring American style conservative Christianity are a very narrow section of the electorate to go after. The only reasons I can see for doing so are either a) they have mistaken Britain for America, or b) they are personally keen on this stuff. And from what little I know of the individuals in charge, b seems unlikely. I inow I've developed this theme before, but I'm baffled by Reform's tactics. They appear to have missed the open goal - the Sunday afternoon diwn the pub grumblers, who, nevertheless, are no sort of zealots - of whom there are many - and are instead going for a weird coalition of furious Christians, white racists and Thatcherite free marketeers.
Courting the white racist vote puts a ceiling on Reform, you're right. But what is 'very narrow', that's a key question.
I think it's around 10% of the electorate. Or let's say it's far nearer 10% than 1%. You need a proxy since people don't answer 'yes' to 'would you consider yourself to be a racist?' For me the best proxy is having a *very* favourable opinion of Donald Trump. That's been polled a few times and it always gets about the 10% mark. So there, close enough for these purposes, is your white racist vote in this country. 10% if they all came out, but they won't so let's say 7%.
Now that's not huge but it is a non-trivial part of Reform's coalition. It's maybe a quarter of it. If they lose all or most of those voters to no-show and/or to Restore (who are most certainly fishing in that pond) it leaves them with an awful lot of 'Sunday pub grumblers' to win over to fill the gap.
I really don't think that Matt Goodwin would have stood if he thought that he would come 4,000 votes behind Hannah the Plumber. Although, objectively, 28% is not bad for Reform in this seat as with Caerphilly it shows that Reform really are loathed by an awful lot of people. They'll vote for anyone to block Farage.
Reform CANNOT win a general election - their voter coalition is too narrow - even if they CAN do enough damage to the Tories and, to a lesser extent, Labour to prevent them winning, by removing parts of their voter coalitions. However, the LibDems and Greens are immune to Nige's charms.
The most likely result of the next GE is surely a left-of-centre Govt involving all or some of Labour, LibDems and Greens.
What happens after 2029 to the right will be of interest. Will Reform (minus, presumably, the retired 64 yr old Farage) be able to sustain its momentum even if its obvious they are too marmite to win an election? I suspect not. But it will require the Tories to keep their heads above water and return a credible number of MPs to re-emerge as the predominant right-of-centre option.
I don’t think the by-election shows that people will vote for anyone to block Farage. That underestimates the popularity of Spencer and the Greens in their own right.
What happens post-2029? Presumably Jenrick’s game plan is that he becomes leader of Reform and takes them into a merger with whatever’s left of the Tories.
If he had any sense it would have worked the other way round, ie, succeeds Kemi as Tory leader, and then merges Tories with post-Farage Reform. He messed up.
He lost his nerve when kemi started getting her act together
One of the strangest takes from the by-election result is the conclusion that anti-Reform tactical voting is alive and well. But, on the contrary, the result seems to show that tactical voting on the right-wing is much more efficient than on the left.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
The SpaceX team behind it received clear instructions from its bosses: “‘No limits. Take off the gloves; use Starlink for anything to help Ukraine.’”
This can’t be right.
I keep reading here how he’s pro Russian and a Russian supporter.
No, that's Trump. Musk is just an amoral character, whose whims are less predictable than the orange ball of corruption.
MAGA certainly does not like Ukraine.
his is my first time learning of this, but apparently, Dan Crenshaw is in trouble.
Cruz has endorsed Crenshaw’s MAGA challenger, while Trump has endorsed every House Republican incumbent in Texas *except* Dan Crenshaw.
Crenshaw supports aid to Ukraine and voted to certify 2020 (despite having previously supported the failed lawsuit to overturn it — for the MAGA base, it wasn’t good enough to commit sedition only once; you had to do it twice). https://x.com/CenTexLib/status/2027089133781307601
Reform certainly need to abandon this notion of forcing the Christianity of the British Empire down everyone's throat. The Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub secularist was probably peak Nigel.
When a core part of the coalition you're seeking to build is white racists it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that you get a great big two fingers from Muslim voters. You can't have your cake and eat it.
Well yes but I agree with Stark Dawning that Refrorm were more widely appealing when they were the Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub-secularist party. White racists or those favouring American style conservative Christianity are a very narrow section of the electorate to go after. The only reasons I can see for doing so are either a) they have mistaken Britain for America, or b) they are personally keen on this stuff. And from what little I know of the individuals in charge, b seems unlikely. I inow I've developed this theme before, but I'm baffled by Reform's tactics. They appear to have missed the open goal - the Sunday afternoon diwn the pub grumblers, who, nevertheless, are no sort of zealots - of whom there are many - and are instead going for a weird coalition of furious Christians, white racists and Thatcherite free marketeers.
Courting the white racist vote puts a ceiling on Reform, you're right. But what is 'very narrow', that's a key question.
I think it's around 10% of the electorate. Or let's say it's far nearer 10% than 1%. You need a proxy since people don't answer 'yes' to 'would you consider yourself to be a racist?' For me the best proxy is having a *very* favourable opinion of Donald Trump. That's been polled a few times and it always gets about the 10% mark. So there, close enough for these purposes, is your white racist vote in this country. 10% if they all came out, but they won't so let's say 7%.
Now that's not huge but it is a non-trivial part of Reform's coalition. It's maybe a quarter of it. If they lose all or most of those voters to no-show and/or to Restore (who are most certainly fishing in that pond) it leaves them with an awful lot of 'Sunday pub grumblers' to win over to fill the gap.
I really don't think that Matt Goodwin would have stood if he thought that he would come 4,000 votes behind Hannah the Plumber. Although, objectively, 28% is not bad for Reform in this seat as with Caerphilly it shows that Reform really are loathed by an awful lot of people. They'll vote for anyone to block Farage.
Reform CANNOT win a general election - their voter coalition is too narrow - even if they CAN do enough damage to the Tories and, to a lesser extent, Labour to prevent them winning, by removing parts of their voter coalitions. However, the LibDems and Greens are immune to Nige's charms.
The most likely result of the next GE is surely a left-of-centre Govt involving all or some of Labour, LibDems and Greens.
What happens after 2029 to the right will be of interest. Will Reform (minus, presumably, the retired 64 yr old Farage) be able to sustain its momentum even if its obvious they are too marmite to win an election? I suspect not. But it will require the Tories to keep their heads above water and return a credible number of MPs to re-emerge as the predominant right-of-centre option.
This is such total shite. Hopecasting of the first water
Labour won a huge landslide with 33% of the vote
If the field is badly split (and it looks like it will be) under FPTP Reform could win a majority with 30%, and they got 29% in a very unfriendly constituency last night
We are in a new world, where wild things happen. Saying “this is impossible just because I don’t like it” is the statement of a fearful dimwit
Anyhow, today’s post drops onto my doormat, and, lo!, I have a ‘Dear Ian’ letter from that Nigel Farage, who tells me that Britain is at a turning point. So he personally invites me to a special public meeting on the island on 9th March, to meet the Reform candidates who will apparently be running our local council (which is one budget away from insolvency) after the elections in May. But, broken Britain can apparently be fixed, once council at a time. I’m impressed to hear that Reform councils have already saved millions of pounds, by cutting waste. Nigel is travelling across Britain to meet voters face to face, and I will hear how he will secure our borders, cut the cost of living, bring down energy bills, stop council waste, and put my community first.
Serious question, will you go? In my time I have been to many meetings of parties I would never ever consider voting for (The exception being the NF who I met in other circumstances and who put me in hospital).
Always interesting to get the impressions of a non-supporter for these things.
Potentially, I’d be up for it, although it would be a boring evening at home for the dog. But I clicked through to the site and I need to pay £5 to Reform to go. The venue is ‘GG’s bar and restaurant’ - how many people can they take?
One of the strangest takes from the by-election result is the conclusion that anti-Reform tactical voting is alive and well. But, on the contrary, the result seems to show that tactical voting on the right-wing is much more efficient than on the left.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
The Tories were 1000/1 to win and Labour were about 5/1
And we are meant to conclude that tactical voting by the right is much more efficient accross the board ?
We have some rewriting of history one the contrary side as well. One of the reasons the by-election shaped up to be a three-way split was precisely because the constituency was not a clear target for either the Greens or Reform, but had parts that were favourable to both parties.
After the result this is being retold as though the constituency was Bristol West, or Streatham. It wasn't exactly a top target seat for the Greens either.
Can someone please confirm whether Labour would have had to fight a Mayoral election when Burnham stepped down, or whether (as I heard) his deputy could have completed his term?
Theoretically they could have completed the term but the political pressures means we would have had a mayoral election.
Can someone please confirm whether Labour would have had to fight a Mayoral election when Burnham stepped down, or whether (as I heard) his deputy could have completed his term?
Hi deputy could have finished the term but there would have been a lot of pressure to hold a new election.
Can someone please confirm whether Labour would have had to fight a Mayoral election when Burnham stepped down, or whether (as I heard) his deputy could have completed his term?
In theory, yes.
In practice, the politics would have been far worse than the council elections thing. It wasn't a runner.
No. I’m calling that bollocks.
I’ll provide some substance to an argument, you all didn’t.
What are deputy’s for, if it’s not to deputise for a few years till the next election? Burnham has been in the seat forever, the fresh face, a woman mayor of major city, would have piqued interest and been warmly welcomed by both media and constituents.
Meanwhile, who you saying would have forced a by election - without any thread of legal recourse to tug on? Jenrick, Braverman, and the rest of Reform, they would have led a “do as we say, not as we are doing” charge of the Light Brigade the moment they opened their mouths.
It was a pathetically weak argument when desperate Labour leadership weaponised it against Burnham at the NEC - you guys parroting the same fantasy of how it “would definitely have played out” just made it appear even more unsubstantiated in cold light of the result, as you are backing the grubby crime without providing enough thought or merit to the counter argument how it could have played out.
What voters are actually looking for from leaders, is to play a hand, with poker face, and not cowardly fold all the time. There’s got to be a bit of toughing it out here and there - it’s never going to be all sweetness and light between two election wins. 79 to 83 definitely wasn’t - and that was just the start of something, not the end of it.
The low low prices in China are particularly striking in Shanghai. Which feels and looks like a great, wealthy American city - Chicago, or LA - only with more neon, better public transport, plus zero crime, litter and graffiti
And the Chinese version is ten times cheaper. It’s hard to get your head around
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Her speech was good in its own right, but also an uncanny echo of the speeches of Manchester socialists 100-130 years ago. I wouldn't expect the London Guardian to pick up on this and sure enough they didn't, but there was a very Manchester tinge to it, and I would like to think that was deliberate. (I doubt it was.)
Fuck all environmentalism in there, however.
Green, my arse.
Caroline Lucas was very good on that point on the radio earlier.
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Her speech was good in its own right, but also an uncanny echo of the speeches of Manchester socialists 100-130 years ago. I wouldn't expect the London Guardian to pick up on this and sure enough they didn't, but there was a very Manchester tinge to it, and I would like to think that was deliberate. (I doubt it was.)
Fuck all environmentalism in there, however.
Green, my arse.
Caroline Lucas was very good on that point on the radio earlier.
The lack of environmental policy, or Sandy's arse ?
One of the strangest takes from the by-election result is the conclusion that anti-Reform tactical voting is alive and well. But, on the contrary, the result seems to show that tactical voting on the right-wing is much more efficient than on the left.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
One of the strangest takes from the by-election result is the conclusion that anti-Reform tactical voting is alive and well. But, on the contrary, the result seems to show that tactical voting on the right-wing is much more efficient than on the left.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
The Tories were 1000/1 to win and Labour were about 5/1
And we are meant to conclude that tactical voting by the right is much more efficient accross the board ?
That's one take I suspose.
Reform won 94% of the combined Reform+Tory vote.
The Greens won 60% of the combined Green+Labour+Lib Dem vote.
That's way more efficient concentration of the right-wing vote behind one party than on the other side.
If 0.94x = 0.6y, then x = (0.6/0.94)y = 0.64y
With the efficiency of tactical voting seen in the by-election you would expect the right to triumph with just under two-thirds of the vote of the left.
Broadly speaking any constituency with a right-wing vote of 40% would be won by the right.
Even YouGov is giving Tory+Reform 42% across the country.
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Her speech was good in its own right, but also an uncanny echo of the speeches of Manchester socialists 100-130 years ago. I wouldn't expect the London Guardian to pick up on this and sure enough they didn't, but there was a very Manchester tinge to it, and I would like to think that was deliberate. (I doubt it was.)
You...you said the "S" word! CLEAR THE AREA! Labour people, please accept my apologies for the use of the s-word. The person responsible has been taken out and shot. CENTRISTS FOR EVER! (wipes sweat off brow)
Here are some pertinent by-election observations from the front-line, from Lizzie Dearden (a rising journo who was prominent on the Ilford Recorder back in my day and who has gone on to bigger and better stuff):
Potentially overplayed: Gaza; in the many conversations I had yesterday, even with people who identified themselves as Muslims, no one mentioned Gaza or Israel.
Potentially underplayed: Andrew Gwynne; as well as the dim public response to its national policies, Labour’s chances were hurt by the a scandal over WhatsApp messages where the former local Labour MP had mocked local voters.
Potentially overplayed: Anti-Reform tactical voting; no-one I spoke to said they were personally voting tactically, although several people thought it was happening. I saw Labour campaigners distributing these leaflets and they seem to have gone down badly. People didn't like being told what to do.
Potentially underplayed: Positive politics; everyone I spoke to who was voting Reform gave reasons as concerns and fears of various kinds, mainly over immigration and general state of the country. The Green voters generally said they were inspired by what the party was standing for and its vision.
Potentially underplayed: Campaign energy; the Greens were everywhere yesterday. They were on road junctions in the rain (my photo), they were door knocking, they were the only party that stopped me in the street.
Potentially overplayed: Labour's troubles; quite a lot of people I spoke to yesterday strongly suggested they could go back to voting Labour, and several believed Andy Burnham would have won the seat. Many said Keir Starmer should go and the party needed to change policies, but there is a route back.
Potentially underplayed: Personality politics; taking a step back from party politics, the 3 frontrunners were a charismatic local plumber with 4 greyhounds on the campaign trail, a southern ex-academic and a councillor who works in Arup's Stakeholder Engagement and Communications service
Re positive politics: It's 16 years ago now, but I did find that offering largely positive politics produced more durable support (though less intense) than negative attacks, which only last as long as people remember the alleged issue (and both sides can end up being disliked). I built up an image (hopefully accurate) of someone who would try to solve problems and was at any rate sympathetic, regardless of the prior political attitudes of the constituent. The result on unchanged boundaries was a swing 1992-2010 of 8% to Labour compsred with a national swing of 0.2%. I lost in the end, but by 390 in 2010 to 9900 by my predecessor in 1992. Most people don't pay that much attention to the ebb and flow of politics - if they decide they generally like someone's approach, they tend to stick with them.
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Her speech was good in its own right, but also an uncanny echo of the speeches of Manchester socialists 100-130 years ago. I wouldn't expect the London Guardian to pick up on this and sure enough they didn't, but there was a very Manchester tinge to it, and I would like to think that was deliberate. (I doubt it was.)
Fuck all environmentalism in there, however.
Green, my arse.
Caroline Lucas was very good on that point on the radio earlier.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Larry Ellison's kid are set to control a very large slice of US media. the chances of it being backed are slim indeed.
One family is about to control CBS, CNN, HBO, and TikTok. They’ll buy WBD with $24 billion in money from the Saudis, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. To win over Trump, they canceled Colbert, blocked a CECOT investigation, and blocked Talarico. Much more will follow. Block this rotten deal. https://x.com/BedoyaUSA/status/2027163326313066711
The low low prices in China are particularly striking in Shanghai. Which feels and looks like a great, wealthy American city - Chicago, or LA - only with more neon, better public transport, plus zero crime, litter and graffiti
And the Chinese version is ten times cheaper. It’s hard to get your head around
It depends if you value freedom or prosperity. The Chinese noted the problem with Russian modernisation - glasnost, perestroika, etc - and took the opposite path. In China, socialism with Chinese characteristics involved liberating the free market (with Party oversight) but removing the people from politics (a one party state where the Party takes all the decisions internally). This is how you end up with wealth, prosperity, cleanliness...but no political freedom.
Gorton and Denton can be treated as two by elections in one, with both of them heralding doom for Labour. They stand to lose the red wall en masse to Reform and their rainbow coalition seats to the Greens.
I'd be surprised if a party that would leave NATO, throw open our borders, and legalise drugs wins more than 20 seats at the next GE. Can't honestly see them hanging on to 2 of the 4 seats they won at the last GE to be honest. They will also have competition from Corbyn's party for the votes of those that are more concerned with the citizens of Gaza than the citizens of where they live. I don't think too many people are yet aware of what the Green's have become but they will be made aware by the next GE.
As for Reform, I think they will have declined by the next GE and tactical voting will do the rest.
The idea that the are going into an election saying "We will leave NATO" is utterly risible.
As is "legalise drugs".
Its far more likely to say decriminalise possession of small amounts of drugs and focus on evidence based harm reduction, and move the emphasis towards health treatments.
One of the strangest takes from the by-election result is the conclusion that anti-Reform tactical voting is alive and well. But, on the contrary, the result seems to show that tactical voting on the right-wing is much more efficient than on the left.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
The Tories were 1000/1 to win and Labour were about 5/1
And we are meant to conclude that tactical voting by the right is much more efficient accross the board ?
That's one take I suspose.
Reform won 94% of the combined Reform+Tory vote.
The Greens won 60% of the combined Green+Labour+Lib Dem vote.
That's way more efficient concentration of the right-wing vote behind one party than on the other side.
If 0.94x = 0.6y, then x = (0.6/0.94)y = 0.64y
With the efficiency of tactical voting seen in the by-election you would expect the right to triumph with just under two-thirds of the vote of the left.
Broadly speaking any constituency with a right-wing vote of 40% would be won by the right.
Even YouGov is giving Tory+Reform 42% across the country.
The most efficient distribution of the centre-left vote would have been for the Greens to have won by a single vote. As it was, they overshot by inefficiently distributing by a fair few thousand more.
Hannah Spencer looks like the face of young female Britain in a way few modern polit8cians do, interestingly. There's some sort of whiff of the promise of generational change witb the Greens, which may prove to be very powerful for people.
The first part of her victory speech (before she started banging on about billionaires) did capture the economic grievances of native young people in modern Britain in a more compelling way than I've seen any other British politician do.
Her speech was good in its own right, but also an uncanny echo of the speeches of Manchester socialists 100-130 years ago. I wouldn't expect the London Guardian to pick up on this and sure enough they didn't, but there was a very Manchester tinge to it, and I would like to think that was deliberate. (I doubt it was.)
Those Labour MPs rushing out their new strategy proposals need to just stop. There's no point even beginning to map a new strategy for Labour until Starmer has gone. He's such a distorting prism. Everyone, everywhere hates him. It may not be fair, but it's the political reality.
If they replace Starmer without a strategy they will end up in the same doom loop.
So they have to work out what the new strategy needs to be, and then choose the person best-placed to implement it.
Edit: Like, I don't think this is an amazing piece of insight on my part. Why is Hodges so superficial and unable to see it? It's supposed to be his job.
Hodges is not just a drama queen he's a clown. Can you imagine a serious journalist coming out with cant like that after lthe loss of a byelection which they almost certainly would have lost whoever the leader?
Hodges used to be very astute. Once he took the Daily Mail shilling he had to dial down the common sense.
It was undoubtedly a great night for the Greens, a potentially existential threat to Labour under FPTP. Not a fantastic night for Goodwin and his bunch of clowns but a brilliant night for Kemi Badenoch's PB Tories, or so it would seem.
I need to go away and reanalyse as I still don't see that last bit.
Who is saying it was a brilliant night for Kemi Badenoch?
"I need to go away "... heard that one before!
Have I done you the discourtesy of engaging with you since our spat in November? No, so please don't bother to engage with me.
Aw diddums.
You do implicitly reference me though, so I will respond even if it makes you cry
You'll have to remind me of when I have implicitly referenced you because I have avoided any interaction with you since November. I did give you a like last week for a particularly humorous post but other than that I don't recall. I tell you what I'll stay in my lane. I thought I already had.
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
The low low prices in China are particularly striking in Shanghai. Which feels and looks like a great, wealthy American city - Chicago, or LA - only with more neon, better public transport, plus zero crime, litter and graffiti
And the Chinese version is ten times cheaper. It’s hard to get your head around
It depends if you value freedom or prosperity. The Chinese noted the problem with Russian modernisation - glasnost, perestroika, etc - and took the opposite path. In China, socialism with Chinese characteristics involved liberating the free market (with Party oversight) but removing the people from politics (a one party state where the Party takes all the decisions internally). This is how you end up with wealth, prosperity, cleanliness...but no political freedom.
The low low prices in China are particularly striking in Shanghai. Which feels and looks like a great, wealthy American city - Chicago, or LA - only with more neon, better public transport, plus zero crime, litter and graffiti
And the Chinese version is ten times cheaper. It’s hard to get your head around
It depends if you value freedom or prosperity. The Chinese noted the problem with Russian modernisation - glasnost, perestroika, etc - and took the opposite path. In China, socialism with Chinese characteristics involved liberating the free market (with Party oversight) but removing the people from politics (a one party state where the Party takes all the decisions internally). This is how you end up with wealth, prosperity, cleanliness...but no political freedom.
IIRC polls regularly show that the Chinese are some of the more optimistic people on the planet. Not THE happiest, but certainly a lot less glum than Europeans and even Americans
I dunno. I feel like democracy has had its day. It’s now producing extremely bizarre results and it’s highly arguable that there are better more productive methods of governance than electing mediocre drones of low to middling intellect who have no rich private life or hinterland because that would be exposed by social media and turned into a vice. Or you get brazen liars and charlatans as only they can cope with the scrutiny
Look at all the UK’s recent prime ministers. And despair
One of the strangest takes from the by-election result is the conclusion that anti-Reform tactical voting is alive and well. But, on the contrary, the result seems to show that tactical voting on the right-wing is much more efficient than on the left.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
The Tories were 1000/1 to win and Labour were about 5/1
And we are meant to conclude that tactical voting by the right is much more efficient accross the board ?
That's one take I suspose.
Reform won 94% of the combined Reform+Tory vote.
The Greens won 60% of the combined Green+Labour+Lib Dem vote.
That's way more efficient concentration of the right-wing vote behind one party than on the other side.
If 0.94x = 0.6y, then x = (0.6/0.94)y = 0.64y
With the efficiency of tactical voting seen in the by-election you would expect the right to triumph with just under two-thirds of the vote of the left.
Broadly speaking any constituency with a right-wing vote of 40% would be won by the right.
Even YouGov is giving Tory+Reform 42% across the country.
Voters are not just right wing or left wing though. A big chunk are anti whoever is in government, hence the Labour vote halving, and for them Reform or Green may have been their choice, which protest vote should they go for?
The low low prices in China are particularly striking in Shanghai. Which feels and looks like a great, wealthy American city - Chicago, or LA - only with more neon, better public transport, plus zero crime, litter and graffiti
And the Chinese version is ten times cheaper. It’s hard to get your head around
It depends if you value freedom or prosperity. The Chinese noted the problem with Russian modernisation - glasnost, perestroika, etc - and took the opposite path. In China, socialism with Chinese characteristics involved liberating the free market (with Party oversight) but removing the people from politics (a one party state where the Party takes all the decisions internally). This is how you end up with wealth, prosperity, cleanliness...but no political freedom.
IIRC polls regularly show that the Chinese are some of the more optimistic people on the planet. Not THE happiest, but certainly a lot less glum than Europeans and even Americans
I dunno. I feel like democracy has had its day. It’s now producing extremely bizarre results and it’s highly arguable that there are better more productive methods of governance than electing mediocre drones of low to middling intellect who have no rich private life or hinterland because that would be exposed by social media and turned into a vice. Or you get brazen liars and charlatans as only they can cope with the scrutiny
Look at all the UK’s recent prime ministers. And despair
People have been calling time on democracy since Ancient Greece.
But the fact that even the most revolting tyrannies like the People's Democratic Republic of Korea or the People's Democratic Dictatorship in China or Putin with his farcical referenda and elections need to nod towards it shows that there's plenty of life in it yet. To say nothing of the hundreds of millions suffering in those countries who'd love to enjoy the rights we take for granted every day.
Being free to say that our democracy has had its day is a privilege we're incredibly lucky to enjoy, granted to us by that system of government our ancestors fortunately bequeathed us.
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Anyhow, today’s post drops onto my doormat, and, lo!, I have a ‘Dear Ian’ letter from that Nigel Farage, who tells me that Britain is at a turning point. So he personally invites me to a special public meeting on the island on 9th March, to meet the Reform candidates who will apparently be running our local council (which is one budget away from insolvency) after the elections in May. But, broken Britain can apparently be fixed, once council at a time. I’m impressed to hear that Reform councils have already saved millions of pounds, by cutting waste. Nigel is travelling across Britain to meet voters face to face, and I will hear how he will secure our borders, cut the cost of living, bring down energy bills, stop council waste, and put my community first.
Serious question, will you go? In my time I have been to many meetings of parties I would never ever consider voting for (The exception being the NF who I met in other circumstances and who put me in hospital).
Always interesting to get the impressions of a non-supporter for these things.
Potentially, I’d be up for it, although it would be a boring evening at home for the dog. But I clicked through to the site and I need to pay £5 to Reform to go. The venue is ‘GG’s bar and restaurant’ - how many people can they take?
Bugger that. Who the hell pays to go to see a politician spout bollocks - I mean no matter what party they are from?
If you support them and want to help you donate whilst you are there. But to pay to actually attend is garbage.
The low low prices in China are particularly striking in Shanghai. Which feels and looks like a great, wealthy American city - Chicago, or LA - only with more neon, better public transport, plus zero crime, litter and graffiti
And the Chinese version is ten times cheaper. It’s hard to get your head around
It depends if you value freedom or prosperity. The Chinese noted the problem with Russian modernisation - glasnost, perestroika, etc - and took the opposite path. In China, socialism with Chinese characteristics involved liberating the free market (with Party oversight) but removing the people from politics (a one party state where the Party takes all the decisions internally). This is how you end up with wealth, prosperity, cleanliness...but no political freedom.
IIRC polls regularly show that the Chinese are some of the more optimistic people on the planet. Not THE happiest, but certainly a lot less glum than Europeans and even Americans
I dunno. I feel like democracy has had its day. It’s now producing extremely bizarre results and it’s highly arguable that there are better more productive methods of governance than electing mediocre drones of low to middling intellect who have no rich private life or hinterland because that would be exposed by social media and turned into a vice. Or you get brazen liars and charlatans as only they can cope with the scrutiny
Look at all the UK’s recent prime ministers. And despair
To me, it looks like we've clearly reached an "anybody but Labour" point, from which Labout will not recover this side of the general election. But it remains to be seen whether voters remain splintered between alternatives or manage to solidify behind one party or party leader.
It's all to play for, except if you're Labour - Who look doomed whatever happens. Con probably doomed as well, but Kemi does seem to be getting some traction and is more popular than her party, which can be an encouraging sign at general elections.
I agree. We’re like the Tories after Truss.
The Tories after Truss ticked up in the polls a bit. They then gradually slid to Truss lows because Sunak was rubbish. Granted he wasn't as rubbish as Starmer, but you only come across a gift like that once in a generation.
You’re one of the smarter posters here. Do you really think in Labour they have better options than the hapless Starmer ? Rayner, Streeting, Ed M (heaven forbid), Burnham ?
I can’t see it.
Streeting at least sounds far less robotic than Ace Starmer.
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Reform certainly need to abandon this notion of forcing the Christianity of the British Empire down everyone's throat. The Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub secularist was probably peak Nigel.
When a core part of the coalition you're seeking to build is white racists it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that you get a great big two fingers from Muslim voters. You can't have your cake and eat it.
Well yes but I agree with Stark Dawning that Refrorm were more widely appealing when they were the Sunday-afternoon-down-the-pub-secularist party. White racists or those favouring American style conservative Christianity are a very narrow section of the electorate to go after. The only reasons I can see for doing so are either a) they have mistaken Britain for America, or b) they are personally keen on this stuff. And from what little I know of the individuals in charge, b seems unlikely. I inow I've developed this theme before, but I'm baffled by Reform's tactics. They appear to have missed the open goal - the Sunday afternoon diwn the pub grumblers, who, nevertheless, are no sort of zealots - of whom there are many - and are instead going for a weird coalition of furious Christians, white racists and Thatcherite free marketeers.
Courting the white racist vote puts a ceiling on Reform, you're right. But what is 'very narrow', that's a key question.
I think it's around 10% of the electorate. Or let's say it's far nearer 10% than 1%. You need a proxy since people don't answer 'yes' to 'would you consider yourself to be a racist?' For me the best proxy is having a *very* favourable opinion of Donald Trump. That's been polled a few times and it always gets about the 10% mark. So there, close enough for these purposes, is your white racist vote in this country. 10% if they all came out, but they won't so let's say 7%.
Now that's not huge but it is a non-trivial part of Reform's coalition. It's maybe a quarter of it. If they lose all or most of those voters to no-show and/or to Restore (who are most certainly fishing in that pond) it leaves them with an awful lot of 'Sunday pub grumblers' to win over to fill the gap.
That strikes me as an overestimate. A lot of the 7% are going to be contrarians, idiots, people who really like one niche aspect of him, like that he was in Home Alone 2 (ask Nick Palmer about that sort of thing), or people who didn't read the question properly. I'd say 3% at most. But even if it was 7%, I'd say you could easily get enough Sunday afternoon pub grumblers (this is an archetype of course, they don't physically have to be in the pub on a Sunday afternoon) who might be interested in a 'common sense says...' argument but who are currently turned off by the less attractive aspects of Reform.
How do you define “a racist”
I’m guessing someone like @kinabalu would say that anyone who believes “Islam is incompatible with British values” is a racist. According to YouGov, more than half of Brits believe this. So more than half of Brits are racist. Not “10%”
I am certain that @kinabalu would say that anyone who thinks “Muslim immigrants have had a negative impact on Britain” is racist. That’s 41% of Brits
And so on, and so forth
Like it or not Reform are fishing in a very large pool, probably comprising more than half the British people
I don't know about someone like kinabalu but the actual one doesn't think anything like half of Brits are seriously racist. The people we're talking about here would agree vigorously with the following sentiment:
"Some Muslims might be ok but most of them bring nothing but trouble. They just don't belong here. We risk being islamified out of all recognition, the rate they're coming in and breeding, and this is a massive concern."
What proportion of the electorate would sign up to that? Around 10% imo. Maybe a touch less on a good day.
Anyhow, today’s post drops onto my doormat, and, lo!, I have a ‘Dear Ian’ letter from that Nigel Farage, who tells me that Britain is at a turning point. So he personally invites me to a special public meeting on the island on 9th March, to meet the Reform candidates who will apparently be running our local council (which is one budget away from insolvency) after the elections in May. But, broken Britain can apparently be fixed, once council at a time. I’m impressed to hear that Reform councils have already saved millions of pounds, by cutting waste. Nigel is travelling across Britain to meet voters face to face, and I will hear how he will secure our borders, cut the cost of living, bring down energy bills, stop council waste, and put my community first.
Serious question, will you go? In my time I have been to many meetings of parties I would never ever consider voting for (The exception being the NF who I met in other circumstances and who put me in hospital).
Always interesting to get the impressions of a non-supporter for these things.
Potentially, I’d be up for it, although it would be a boring evening at home for the dog. But I clicked through to the site and I need to pay £5 to Reform to go. The venue is ‘GG’s bar and restaurant’ - how many people can they take?
Bugger that. Who the hell pays to go to see a politician spout bollocks - I mean no matter what party they are from?
If you support them and want to help you donate whilst you are there. But to pay to actually attend is garbage.
Reform is a business not dissimilar to Trump. Pay to get in and buy the merchandice.
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
"...Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said on Wednesday that the Chancellor should step aside if she was not prepared to approve the NMH deal. She said: “This is about investing in Britain for the future. I don’t see any of that. I see bean counting. I see, you know, let’s get our debt to GDP down a little bit and everything will be fine...That isn’t where we are. We have to invest in the industries of the future. Otherwise, where are the jobs?...If the Chancellor can’t make sure that she understands the vision that there has to be investment in the future, if she is so locked into those fiscal walls that she doesn’t understand that particular point, then maybe she’s not the person to carry out the vision.”..."
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
The defence industrial strategy happening in Europe just isn't over here.
Maybe they should transfer skills and production to drones and drone technology.
Any form of military helicopter is just a great big sitting duck.
One nick on a rotor and it's down
Except that
1) They are working on drone technology there 2) The Ukrainians, who are at the forefront of drone warfare, haven't got rid of helicopters. They use them, quite actively.
"We’ve seen the true colours of Zack Polanski’s Greens in this campaign. The Greens were able to capitalise on an endorsement from George Galloway to win over enough voters to push them over the line. Their willingness to welcome Galloway's divisive, sectarian politics is a sign that the Greens are not the harmless environmentalists they pretend to be, and their position on legalising all drugs shows how unstable this electoral coalition is. It cannot survive a general election campaign."
Completely the wrong approach. Very disappointing from Starmer. I thought he'd got himself some professionals to write those sorts of things for him. Lesson 1. You congratulate your opponents. You DONT tell voters that they've just voted in a bunch of pirates and cut-throats.
"We’ve seen the true colours of Zack Polanski’s Greens in this campaign. The Greens were able to capitalise on an endorsement from George Galloway to win over enough voters to push them over the line. Their willingness to welcome Galloway's divisive, sectarian politics is a sign that the Greens are not the harmless environmentalists they pretend to be, and their position on legalising all drugs shows how unstable this electoral coalition is. It cannot survive a general election campaign."
Completely the wrong approach. Very disappointing from Starmer. I thought he'd got himself some professionals to write those sorts of things for him. Lesson 1. You congratulate your opponents. You DONT tell voters that they've just voted in a bunch of pirates and cut-throats.
He's clearly decided these sorts of seats are worth sacrificing.
Our weapons procurement budget has actually fallen. Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
And they are going to fuck it up because Starmer is an idiot.
"In the UK there is an office, and in that office there are many desks. On one of them sits viewcode, very tired but typing happily and staring at the screen, with quiet music in the earphones. It has been a good week and work was done. But there is a kernel of doubt. How the f*** can Starmer be so, so rubbish? How? HOW???"
One of the strangest takes from the by-election result is the conclusion that anti-Reform tactical voting is alive and well. But, on the contrary, the result seems to show that tactical voting on the right-wing is much more efficient than on the left.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
The Tories were 1000/1 to win and Labour were about 5/1
And we are meant to conclude that tactical voting by the right is much more efficient accross the board ?
That's one take I suspose.
Reform won 94% of the combined Reform+Tory vote.
The Greens won 60% of the combined Green+Labour+Lib Dem vote.
That's way more efficient concentration of the right-wing vote behind one party than on the other side.
If 0.94x = 0.6y, then x = (0.6/0.94)y = 0.64y
With the efficiency of tactical voting seen in the by-election you would expect the right to triumph with just under two-thirds of the vote of the left.
Broadly speaking any constituency with a right-wing vote of 40% would be won by the right.
Even YouGov is giving Tory+Reform 42% across the country.
The most efficient distribution of the centre-left vote would have been for the Greens to have won by a single vote. As it was, they overshot by inefficiently distributing by a fair few thousand more.
Labour and the Greens combined got 24,344, whereas Reform got 10,578. However the Labour Green vote was split the winner would win be at least 1,594 votes ahead of Reform. They couldn't have won by a single vote
Comments
Now we can go without a visa I think a week or two in China is on the cards next time I'm over this way.
(Small whinge: today's transit at Shanghai required two internal airport trains. Two! Not the usual arrangement.)
“You will be invited, accepted, agreed with and offered weak cups of tea. Or else!!”
https://x.com/ablasalma/status/2027369229503070685?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Musk is just an amoral character, whose whims are less predictable than the orange ball of corruption.
Ace Starmer: Suggest what, Taz?
Taz: If you're interested, I'll be in my quarters at lunchtime, covered in Pineapple Pizza.
Ace Starmer: I didn't know your bread was buttered that side, Taz.
Taz: It isn't, I've been happily married for 35 years. It's just, a chap like you can turn a guy's head!
Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. Lunch is... on Bridget.
Taz: Would it make any difference if it was Anchovies?
Ace Starmer: I'm sorry, Taz. I'm strictly butter-side up!
Taz: Understood.
[Ace leaves]
Taz: What a guy!
And mainly - far too much importance is ascribed to by-elections mid-term. we do it on here, the media are doing it today.
Edit: lol soz. That was for @ianb2.
In case no one guessed
As for Reform, I think they will have declined by the next GE and tactical voting will do the rest.
It may happen, but it isn't under her control.
You shouldn't be trying to suck yourself off while fantasising about the 3rd reich just yet.
Whether or not this particular decision os justified, it is one of the consequences of that.
Thousands of jobs at Leonardo's Yeovil helicopter factory feared to be at risk after Treasury officials this morning refused to sign off £1bn medium helicopters deal.
Source familiar with the discussions says: "It's over."
Warns of "biblical" impact on jobs 1/2
https://x.com/mattotele/status/2027347073863950458
The defence industrial strategy happening in Europe just isn't over here.
Always interesting to get the impressions of a non-supporter for these things.
1. Very weak Chinese currency
2. Massive over build of luxury hotels pre covid
3. Tourism in China - domestic and foreign - still has not returned to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels, yet
The result is insane bargains. This is true right across China
5 star hotel rooms for £50 etc
🚨Reports of breaches of electoral law must be investigated 🚨
Since 1872, secrecy of the ballot has been a fundamental principle of British democracy.
The report published by Democracy Volunteers on the Gorton and Denton Parliamentary by-election says electoral offences were committed. It is completely unacceptable for anyone to be watched or pressured inside a polling station.
I have written to the Electoral Commission requesting a full inquiry.
https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/2027390691488280944?s=20
Breaking: “Due to the ongoing security situation, we have taken the precautionary measure to temporarily withdraw UK staff from Iran. Our embassy continues to operate remotely,” the Foreign Office says
Green, my arse.
*The reverse is also true of course.
Labour will find it very difficult to split the two groups, particularly as the ratio of support for Palestinians:Israelis is now 2:1. It's 5:1 among Remain voters, the same among Labour voters. I know the cost of living, NHS etc are in theory more important - but if the Greens keep pushing those topics too (as I see in my YouTube ads) AND are solid on Gaza then I see no path for Labour to take them on.
I actually see a vague route through economy/energy rather than cultural stuff. Shame they are so unimaginative on both.
I never knew he wrote , or co wrote, a number one hit.
The chicken song.
This isn't particularly surprising, since tactical voting on the Left is inhibited by a party of the Left being in government, so it's a bit odd that so many people have drawn the wrong conclusion.
his is my first time learning of this, but apparently, Dan Crenshaw is in trouble.
Cruz has endorsed Crenshaw’s MAGA challenger, while Trump has endorsed every House Republican incumbent in Texas *except* Dan Crenshaw.
Crenshaw supports aid to Ukraine and voted to certify 2020 (despite having previously supported the failed lawsuit to overturn it — for the MAGA base, it wasn’t good enough to commit sedition only once; you had to do it twice).
https://x.com/CenTexLib/status/2027089133781307601
It’s a great time to be travelling around Asia. Especially China
I’ve got a couple of commissions to come back here later in the year. I may extend them on my own shilling as the cost is so deliciously tiny
And we are meant to conclude that tactical voting by the right is much more efficient accross the board ?
That's one take I suspose.
After the result this is being retold as though the constituency was Bristol West, or Streatham. It wasn't exactly a top target seat for the Greens either.
I’ll provide some substance to an argument, you all didn’t.
What are deputy’s for, if it’s not to deputise for a few years till the next election? Burnham has been in the seat forever, the fresh face, a woman mayor of major city, would have piqued interest and been warmly welcomed by both media and constituents.
Meanwhile, who you saying would have forced a by election - without any thread of legal recourse to tug on? Jenrick, Braverman, and the rest of Reform, they would have led a “do as we say, not as we are doing” charge of the Light Brigade the moment they opened their mouths.
It was a pathetically weak argument when desperate Labour leadership weaponised it against Burnham at the NEC - you guys parroting the same fantasy of how it “would definitely have played out” just made it appear even more unsubstantiated in cold light of the result, as you are backing the grubby crime without providing enough thought or merit to the counter argument how it could have played out.
What voters are actually looking for from leaders, is to play a hand, with poker face, and not cowardly fold all the time. There’s got to be a bit of toughing it out here and there - it’s never going to be all sweetness and light between two election wins. 79 to 83 definitely wasn’t - and that was just the start of something, not the end of it.
https://x.com/zackpolanski/status/2027390278521246129
EXCL:
Zack Polanski overheard speaking loudly on his phone on a train saying there's shit loads of new green party members.
And the Greens are going to win elections right across England and Wales in May.
And the Chinese version is ten times cheaper. It’s hard to get your head around
The Greens won 60% of the combined Green+Labour+Lib Dem vote.
That's way more efficient concentration of the right-wing vote behind one party than on the other side.
If 0.94x = 0.6y, then x = (0.6/0.94)y = 0.64y
With the efficiency of tactical voting seen in the by-election you would expect the right to triumph with just under two-thirds of the vote of the left.
Broadly speaking any constituency with a right-wing vote of 40% would be won by the right.
Even YouGov is giving Tory+Reform 42% across the country.
They won't win any constituencies in Wales, they'll pick up seats thanks to d'Hondt.
the chances of it being backed are slim indeed.
One family is about to control CBS, CNN, HBO, and TikTok. They’ll buy WBD with $24 billion in money from the Saudis, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi. To win over Trump, they canceled Colbert, blocked a CECOT investigation, and blocked Talarico. Much more will follow. Block this rotten deal.
https://x.com/BedoyaUSA/status/2027163326313066711
As is "legalise drugs".
Its far more likely to say decriminalise possession of small amounts of drugs and focus on evidence based harm reduction, and move the emphasis towards health treatments.
Oh - just like their existing policy,
The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP has refused to sign off on the New Medium Helicopter contract.
@LDO_Helicopters had set today as the deadline for a decision otherwise the Yeovil factory to be closed with the loss of at least 3,000 jobs, ending UK helicopter manufacturing.
https://x.com/NavyLookout/status/2027377505871544432
I dunno. I feel like democracy has had its day. It’s now producing extremely bizarre results and it’s highly arguable that there are better more productive methods of governance than electing mediocre drones of low to middling intellect who have no rich private life or hinterland because that would be exposed by social media and turned into a vice. Or you get brazen liars and charlatans as only they can cope with the scrutiny
Look at all the UK’s recent prime ministers. And despair
But the fact that even the most revolting tyrannies like the People's Democratic Republic of Korea or the People's Democratic Dictatorship in China or Putin with his farcical referenda and elections need to nod towards it shows that there's plenty of life in it yet. To say nothing of the hundreds of millions suffering in those countries who'd love to enjoy the rights we take for granted every day.
Being free to say that our democracy has had its day is a privilege we're incredibly lucky to enjoy, granted to us by that system of government our ancestors fortunately bequeathed us.
If you support them and want to help you donate whilst you are there. But to pay to actually attend is garbage.
NEW THREAD
"Some Muslims might be ok but most of them bring nothing but trouble. They just don't belong here. We risk being islamified out of all recognition, the rate they're coming in and breeding, and this is a massive concern."
What proportion of the electorate would sign up to that? Around 10% imo. Maybe a touch less on a good day.
The helicopter they are working on (amongst others) is the Proteus helicopter: a full-on drone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsghRo7yfDE
And they are going to fuck it up because Starmer is an idiot.
Any form of military helicopter is just a great big sitting duck.
One nick on a rotor and it's down
1) They are working on drone technology there
2) The Ukrainians, who are at the forefront of drone warfare, haven't got rid of helicopters. They use them, quite actively.
"Slowly, the typing continues..."