I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
You can't apply vote changes from a by-election across the country like that to any useful end. By-election swings are typically much larger, not least because the intense campaigning generally turbocharges tactical voting.
You would expect the view changes to be different in a seat where the Tories were first or second at GE2024.
Badenoch has pulled the Tory polling up from its nadir. There's a long way to go to recover the ground lost since the last GE, but I think they are a lot less doomed than they appeared to be six months ago.
Am I the only person thinking she’s doing quite a good job?
Her solution for tuition fees is not a good one however she astutely gave the attention to the issue of tuition fees and has charted a course that isn’t going after pensioners. Something I have been calling for, for years.
There’s a space for a Tory Party that would do very well with the let’s say 25-45 age bracket. She’s made the first attempt at speaking to them.
They need to do away with their NIMBYism streak next.
If they stop being nimbys their support will halve immediately.
She may be ok, but the party is on life support. It'll survive to 2029 (though she won't) but it's 50/50 if they merge fully with Reform or a rump remains.
Kemi has made a few gains with under 35s relative to 2024, her stamp duty cut plan went down well with them.
Though yes the Tories have leaked significant numbers of over 50s to Reform so overall are still down on the last general election but the one positive is the average Tory is now younger under Kemi than they were under Rishi
Listening to Polanski talking at length, and the closest he came to talking about the environment was mentioning nationalising the water companies. Nothing about climate change, net zero, or energy policy. If you didn't know he was the leader of the Greens you would think he's some far-left follower of Corbyn.
There's a youth wave from the upcoming generation, trying to break through. First it went with Clegg, then it went with Corbyn, now it's flocking to Polanski.
You play on the pitch where the match is being held.
Yes, family voting is a thing. Labour has benefited from it enormously in the past. Anyone with any tactical nous campaigning in a Muslim constituency (or division, or ward) knows about it. We have a city councillor round here who is thick as cowshit and whose continued presence is only attributable to - let's say - community ties.
Reform squealing about it, as if it has come as some great surprise to them, is just further evidence that they have no local organisation. Reform are, more or less, a media-created construct. That can get you a long way - in many places across Britain, people now spend more time consuming the media (in its widest definition) than interacting with community networks of the sort that still exist in Muslim areas. But it's not yet clear that Reform actually have the organisation to win the 300 seats the polls are projecting.
There are wives outside the South Asian community who defer to their husbands’ views too. MAGA encourage that attitude on the other side of the Atlantic. What’s the solution? Clear civics lessons in schools?
Wives deferring to their husbands view isn't the problem. Sometimes my elderly mum will ask me who she should vote for in local elections as I generally know the candidates personally. The problems is if the sanctity of secret ballot was compromised in the polling station. Said wives should be able to vote against their husband's wishes without them knowing. If polling workers have failed to enforce the rules or have felt too intimidated to do so then that should be investigated.
Addressing the polling station issue when huge numbers vote by post is to check the locks on the front door while the back door is open. One day it will become obvious that having no proper checks on postal voting is a significant mistake.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
No, the way that 5 (or more in Scotland and Wales) party politics plays out in a country wedded to FPTP elections is that each party wins in different places. LDs will continue to do well in the yellow belt across Southern England and be the main opponent of Tories and Reform there. Tories willl retreat to prosperous Shires. Neither will be competitive elsewhere.
I wonder if Reform will continue to be so inefficiently distributed vote wise. It was their Achillies Heel in July 24, and was yesterday too. Labour may fall into the same trap with Greens snapping up their previously "safe seats". That Starmer win of wide but shallow support is vulnerable to the same result as Reform.
We have fractured politics right now, but there’s no reason why this should continue or why parties shouldnt aspire to reach beyond their core constituencies. That’s my point.
If the LDs are perfectly happy that they never win many or any northern urban seats again and they are happy essentially being a party of the leafy shires, fine, but it’s only 15 or so years ago they didn’t have such narrow aims.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
I assume they’re really referring to postal votes, where one household member fills in the forms for everyone. But that’s still lazy.
If the 9k figure quoted earlier for postal ballots is accurate, at most it shows a channel where undue influence could happen. It doesn’t show it did happen here, and it doesn’t show those voters wouldn’t have turned out in person anyway.
There is an argument to be had about postal voting, but I think this is not the right one.
The betting lesson, as TSE subtly notes in the header, is that prices are often wrong when the market opens, when the odds are set based on one person's gut feel.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
No, the way that 5 (or more in Scotland and Wales) party politics plays out in a country wedded to FPTP elections is that each party wins in different places. LDs will continue to do well in the yellow belt across Southern England and be the main opponent of Tories and Reform there. Tories willl retreat to prosperous Shires. Neither will be competitive elsewhere.
I wonder if Reform will continue to be so inefficiently distributed vote wise. It was their Achillies Heel in July 24, and was yesterday too. Labour may fall into the same trap with Greens snapping up their previously "safe seats". That Starmer win of wide but shallow support is vulnerable to the same result as Reform.
Any seat Boris won in 2019, which excludes Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton and which did not go from Tory in 2019 to LD in 2024 is now vulnerable to Reform. So Farage's party is at least efficient enough to still win most seats
Got to be very tempting, on the basis of yesterday's vote, for Labour to think about removing the right of commonwealth citizens to vote in general elections. Just dress it up as only having voting rights in place for countries that reciprocate.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
You can't apply vote changes from a by-election across the country like that to any useful end. By-election swings are typically much larger, not least because the intense campaigning generally turbocharges tactical voting.
You would expect the view changes to be different in a seat where the Tories were first or second at GE2024.
Badenoch has pulled the Tory polling up from its nadir. There's a long way to go to recover the ground lost since the last GE, but I think they are a lot less doomed than they appeared to be six months ago.
Am I the only person thinking she’s doing quite a good job?
Her solution for tuition fees is not a good one however she astutely gave the attention to the issue of tuition fees and has charted a course that isn’t going after pensioners. Something I have been calling for, for years.
There’s a space for a Tory Party that would do very well with the let’s say 25-45 age bracket. She’s made the first attempt at speaking to them.
They need to do away with their NIMBYism streak next.
If they stop being nimbys their support will halve immediately.
She may be ok, but the party is on life support. It'll survive to 2029 (though she won't) but it's 50/50 if they merge fully with Reform or a rump remains.
If the 25-45 Plan 2 generation vote for the Party that introduced Plan 2 tuition fees then you'd have to question whether they should have been accepted for University
I don't think that suggestion from Badenoch can compete with the Green Party proposing to abolish tuition fees.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
I assume they’re really referring to postal votes, where one household member fills in the forms for everyone. But that’s still lazy.
If the 9k figure quoted earlier for postal ballots is accurate, at most it shows a channel where undue influence could happen. It doesn’t show it did happen here, and it doesn’t show those voters wouldn’t have turned out in person anyway.
There is an argument to be had about postal voting, but I think this is not the right one.
No the "family voting" allegations were around in person voting.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
You mean, like the Conservatives?
We are seeing the political fragmentation of the country into areas or regions where two or perhaps three parties have an interest and other parties are nowhere.
The LDs have never been a national party and the Conservatives are no longer either - both will be fighting 100-125 seats in England at the next election, many will be the same but not all.
As for Reform, Labour and the Greens they will be excluded from most of those 100-125 seats in all honesty and they will be fighting other seats in other places alongside local Independents such as in my neck of the woods.
Labour might be able to fight 400 seats in England, Reform possibly 250-300 and Greens 100 based on opportunities and resources.
Last night's result will give the Greens a fillip in London and where they have no local pro-Muslim Independent group they will do well - Reform didn't do badly and I think they will surprise in Labour areas in London if perhaps less so in Conservative ones.
It was a poor though unsurprising result for the LDs and an awful result for the Conservatives and just goes to show how far having "an excellent candidate" doesn't take you. It was a better night for Labour in Southampton but another poor local council by-election for the Conservatives.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
Part of Reform's challenge is there's lots of groups of voters that have a strong rationale for voting against them. Muslims are one example. Liberals (in the traditional sense) another.
I'm not sure, other than Labour as the governing party, any other party has such a strong disadvantage when tactical voting comes into play.
If they can get to 35% then none of this matters - they win. But at 30% it's touch and go. At 25%, even if in the lead, I suspect they'll just pile up a lot of second places.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
The best ever performance by the Lib Dems (or further back, Liberals) in the old Manchester Gorton came in 2005, when Gerald Kaufman's majority was reduced from 11,300 to 5,800 (21% swing) due to voters turning on the Labour government because of a war in the Middle East. That particular aspect is not new to the seat.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
The role of the observers is to observe, not to interfere.
In practice when you are touring polling stations it might not feel safe to report concerns to the staff there and then but you would report it back to your agent, with evidence who would then instantly report the concern to the Returning Officer or his staff.
Dead people voting and personation is generally not obvious to tellers outside polling stations but only reveals itself when you check the polling numbers against the marked register. The phenomenon of three dead people voting in Kirkby Lonsdale of all places shows this is much more rife that those not used to electioneering imagine. "Well what did you do about it ?" Well nothing because we didn't know they were dead when the numbers were collected. Obviously we MIGHT well have challenged a result where it mattered, and there is a mechanism for searching the polls against the counterfoils but I don't think it has actually been done in 50 years.
I could rewrite electoral law with my experience, not in any partisan way but to make it absolutely clear what could and couldn't be done.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
The LDs are now essentially boxed in mostly to the Home Counties areas where the Greens aren't established. Had last night's by-election been in, say, East Grinstead, they'd have played the role that the Greens just did, with Reform coming in second, just the same.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Greens fare in the rural seats they picked up at the last GE. Both won on the back of local dissatisfaction with environmental disasters. I suspect they’ll survive and maybe even increase their majorities if the Tory vote continues to collapse, but if there’s a Tory recovery I’m not so sure.
The Greens are no longer an environmental party first and foremost. They are misnamed. The Lib Dems have a long established history of meaningful green policies. They are, arguably, the “Teal” option. I am not worried about Greens eclipsing us, because of anything they’ve abandoned our patch and are playing elsewhere now, in seats where the LDs have always been also-rans.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
OK, let's deal with Family Voting in the context of Gorton & Denton.
The BBC report is that Democracy Volunteers observed 545 cast votes and 32 cases of family voting, affecting 12% of voters.
They report a baseline figure of 1-2% across their observations, including 1% in Runcorn, so perhaps 3 cases.
So, there is a background level going on, but it is low, and I think we can reasonably draw that this is predominantly Muslim voters in this case.
What I don't know is what level of influence is being reported on, whether it is all interference in the booth, or a lower level "what are we doing" prior to the booth, pointing at the ballot box? We do need DV to be clear on exactly what they have observed, and whether any admonition and direction was provided by election officers to "not do that", which should suffice in many cases.
It needs investigating, understanding, and if need be stronger direction provided to election officers in handling cases. At strongest that could be something like urinal spacing voting - allowing officers to direct a (husband) at the first booth and a (wife) at the third, or making the husband clear the polling station before his wife votes.
Now, in terms of the election, Greens had a 12% majority, and we had 12% family voting. Let's say, at worst, this was all interference in the booth. However, half of the reported family voting was the influencer, whose ballot was presumably their own will, half was the influencee.
Even if you take it to its limit, that every single influenced (Muslim wife) voter was the highest level pressured to vote Green at the ballot box when they would have otherwise voted Reform, a fairly incredible proposition, you don't overturn the Green win here. More credible to think that such family voting could have prevented Labour from coming second in reality.
So, in summary, the take away here is to understand the nature of what happened in each case, from DV, from anything seen or intervened with by the election officers, and take away what extra we need to do next time in the polling station to squash down on these practices. No more, no less.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
I assume they’re really referring to postal votes, where one household member fills in the forms for everyone. But that’s still lazy.
If the 9k figure quoted earlier for postal ballots is accurate, at most it shows a channel where undue influence could happen. It doesn’t show it did happen here, and it doesn’t show those voters wouldn’t have turned out in person anyway.
There is an argument to be had about postal voting, but I think this is not the right one.
No the "family voting" allegations were around in person voting.
Sounds like the usual racist tropes from the new nasty party then.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
You mean, like the Conservatives?.
Exactly like the Conservatives. Not quite sure what the point is? All I am saying is that our political system has undeniably changed but there is no reason why national parties should just accept it and move on. By virtue of being national parties they should work to appeal to a national voter base. If they’ve decided that’s not for them, fine, but they are then regional minority parties not national ones.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
You play on the pitch where the match is being held.
Yes, family voting is a thing. Labour has benefited from it enormously in the past. Anyone with any tactical nous campaigning in a Muslim constituency (or division, or ward) knows about it. We have a city councillor round here who is thick as cowshit and whose continued presence is only attributable to - let's say - community ties.
Reform squealing about it, as if it has come as some great surprise to them, is just further evidence that they have no local organisation. Reform are, more or less, a media-created construct. That can get you a long way - in many places across Britain, people now spend more time consuming the media (in its widest definition) than interacting with community networks of the sort that still exist in Muslim areas. But it's not yet clear that Reform actually have the organisation to win the 300 seats the polls are projecting.
There are wives outside the South Asian community who defer to their husbands’ views too. MAGA encourage that attitude on the other side of the Atlantic. What’s the solution? Clear civics lessons in schools?
Wives deferring to their husbands view isn't the problem. Sometimes my elderly mum will ask me who she should vote for in local elections as I generally know the candidates personally. The problems is if the sanctity of secret ballot was compromised in the polling station. Said wives should be able to vote against their husband's wishes without them knowing. If polling workers have failed to enforce the rules or have felt too intimidated to do so then that should be investigated.
Addressing the polling station issue when huge numbers vote by post is to check the locks on the front door while the back door is open. One day it will become obvious that having no proper checks on postal voting is a significant mistake.
I can understand how you can only allow one person in the pollng Booth, which would maintain the secret ballot. I'm not sure how that can extend to the open area in front of the tellers desks. It's impossible to stop us talking to each other unless you allow only one person in the station at a time.
It's a repeat of Caerphilly. A not-Labour party can win big against Reform in a Labour seat. Tactical voting works, but you can only have one target, which is Reform in this case, I think.
How this plays out across the very large Labour estate, I'm not sure, but it doesn't look good for Labour.
Should add, while desperate for Labour, it was an equally bad loss for Goodwin. Reform was competing for third place with the tactically voted against Labour, miles behind the winners. Not where an insurgent party needs to be.
... what?! It's a genuine disaster for Labour. For Reform, it's pretty good. They doubled their vote-share, established themselves as the main right-wing party with the Conservatives nowhere. In the end the left-wing vote was just a bit too big in this particular constituency, and the vote split wasn't marginal enough anyway.
Their expectation management wasn't great and the reaction since the result deeply immature, and frankly a bit racist - do they really expect Muslims to vote for Reform? "Sectarian voting" is as much a result of their rhetoric than anything else. But their actual votes? Not bad at all, and they reflect that these ethereal previous non-voters are, actually, heading to the polling stations.
It depends if you think the Greens won because everyone thoroughly approves of their programme or because people were voting tactically. If the first I would agree with you - Huge swing from Labour to Greens; Reform did OK.
But actually I think there was a big tactical play. In which case almost losing to the squeezed party and massive gap with the winning party isn't where they need to be in a seat where they should expect to be at least a close second.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
For reasons I posted above, the logic doesn’t support that. Greens are drawing voters from the Corbynites. Might as well say there’s an interesting write up that has an SNP collapse in favour of Plaid Cymru.
You play on the pitch where the match is being held.
Yes, family voting is a thing. Labour has benefited from it enormously in the past. Anyone with any tactical nous campaigning in a Muslim constituency (or division, or ward) knows about it. We have a city councillor round here who is thick as cowshit and whose continued presence is only attributable to - let's say - community ties.
Reform squealing about it, as if it has come as some great surprise to them, is just further evidence that they have no local organisation. Reform are, more or less, a media-created construct. That can get you a long way - in many places across Britain, people now spend more time consuming the media (in its widest definition) than interacting with community networks of the sort that still exist in Muslim areas. But it's not yet clear that Reform actually have the organisation to win the 300 seats the polls are projecting.
There are wives outside the South Asian community who defer to their husbands’ views too. MAGA encourage that attitude on the other side of the Atlantic. What’s the solution? Clear civics lessons in schools?
Wives deferring to their husbands view isn't the problem. Sometimes my elderly mum will ask me who she should vote for in local elections as I generally know the candidates personally. The problems is if the sanctity of secret ballot was compromised in the polling station. Said wives should be able to vote against their husband's wishes without them knowing. If polling workers have failed to enforce the rules or have felt too intimidated to do so then that should be investigated.
Addressing the polling station issue when huge numbers vote by post is to check the locks on the front door while the back door is open. One day it will become obvious that having no proper checks on postal voting is a significant mistake.
Yes I agree but if you don't uphold the integrity of the polling station then there's no point reforming postal votes.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
No, the way that 5 (or more in Scotland and Wales) party politics plays out in a country wedded to FPTP elections is that each party wins in different places. LDs will continue to do well in the yellow belt across Southern England and be the main opponent of Tories and Reform there. Tories willl retreat to prosperous Shires. Neither will be competitive elsewhere.
I wonder if Reform will continue to be so inefficiently distributed vote wise. It was their Achillies Heel in July 24, and was yesterday too. Labour may fall into the same trap with Greens snapping up their previously "safe seats". That Starmer win of wide but shallow support is vulnerable to the same result as Reform.
Any seat Boris won in 2019, which excludes Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton and which did not go from Tory in 2019 to LD in 2024 is now vulnerable to Reform. So Farage's party is at least efficient enough to still win most seats
I don't think that Reform will win where there is a clear tactical vote against them. G and D and Carphilly demonstrate that very neatly, and that voters are well motivated to do so.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
The best ever performance by the Lib Dems (or further back, Liberals) in the old Manchester Gorton came in 2005, when Gerald Kaufman's majority was reduced from 11,300 to 5,800 (21% swing) due to voters turning on the Labour government because of a war in the Middle East. That particular aspect is not new to the seat.
Yes, the simple and obvious lesson from G and D is that Muslims and other sympathetic folk won't vote for parties that support the mass killing of Muslims. Labour doesn't need to move to the left in the sense of trans rights, DEI, economic or environmental policy. It just needs to stop toadying to the USA and Israel when those countries embark on killing sprees.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Not sure why this tweet has touches of French, but it’s succinctly accurate about the delusional scenarios flittering across the minds of the family voting guys.
PATRIOT NUMBER ONE 🏴 @nickisafraud Amina, 35 ans: "I want to vote for Matt Goodwin.... he's so handsome..."
Mahmud, 45 ans: "By Allah no wife of mine shall vote for anyone other than Hannah Spencer. Trans rights are human rights inshallah." 5:59 am · 27 Feb 2026
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
No, the way that 5 (or more in Scotland and Wales) party politics plays out in a country wedded to FPTP elections is that each party wins in different places. LDs will continue to do well in the yellow belt across Southern England and be the main opponent of Tories and Reform there. Tories willl retreat to prosperous Shires. Neither will be competitive elsewhere.
I wonder if Reform will continue to be so inefficiently distributed vote wise. It was their Achillies Heel in July 24, and was yesterday too. Labour may fall into the same trap with Greens snapping up their previously "safe seats". That Starmer win of wide but shallow support is vulnerable to the same result as Reform.
Any seat Boris won in 2019, which excludes Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton and which did not go from Tory in 2019 to LD in 2024 is now vulnerable to Reform. So Farage's party is at least efficient enough to still win most seats
I don't think that Reform will win where there is a clear tactical vote against them. G and D and Carphilly demonstrate that very neatly, and that voters are well motivated to do so.
As a Libdem I'd have voted Green or Labour to keep out reform if I'd lived in Gorton. subsequently it was obvious Labour was under pressure and likely to lose so I would have chosen Green.
Listening to Polanski talking at length, and the closest he came to talking about the environment was mentioning nationalising the water companies. Nothing about climate change, net zero, or energy policy. If you didn't know he was the leader of the Greens you would think he's some far-left follower of Corbyn.
Her victory speech seemed to leave out environmental issues too - not really a criticism as they can do what they want but she and Zac sounded very old old Labour.
My new favourite Labour MP is Karl Turner (?), sounded like a character from a Peter Kay comedy.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
You play on the pitch where the match is being held.
Yes, family voting is a thing. Labour has benefited from it enormously in the past. Anyone with any tactical nous campaigning in a Muslim constituency (or division, or ward) knows about it. We have a city councillor round here who is thick as cowshit and whose continued presence is only attributable to - let's say - community ties.
Reform squealing about it, as if it has come as some great surprise to them, is just further evidence that they have no local organisation. Reform are, more or less, a media-created construct. That can get you a long way - in many places across Britain, people now spend more time consuming the media (in its widest definition) than interacting with community networks of the sort that still exist in Muslim areas. But it's not yet clear that Reform actually have the organisation to win the 300 seats the polls are projecting.
There are wives outside the South Asian community who defer to their husbands’ views too. MAGA encourage that attitude on the other side of the Atlantic. What’s the solution? Clear civics lessons in schools?
Wives deferring to their husbands view isn't the problem. Sometimes my elderly mum will ask me who she should vote for in local elections as I generally know the candidates personally. The problems is if the sanctity of secret ballot was compromised in the polling station. Said wives should be able to vote against their husband's wishes without them knowing. If polling workers have failed to enforce the rules or have felt too intimidated to do so then that should be investigated.
Addressing the polling station issue when huge numbers vote by post is to check the locks on the front door while the back door is open. One day it will become obvious that having no proper checks on postal voting is a significant mistake.
Yes I agree but if you don't uphold the integrity of the polling station then there's no point reforming postal votes.
Need to wait for number of postal votes, there was talk of 9000 which would be 25% of votes cast. Anyone suggesting that 1 in 4 of in-person votes was coerced?
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
The best ever performance by the Lib Dems (or further back, Liberals) in the old Manchester Gorton came in 2005, when Gerald Kaufman's majority was reduced from 11,300 to 5,800 (21% swing) due to voters turning on the Labour government because of a war in the Middle East. That particular aspect is not new to the seat.
Yes, the simple and obvious lesson from G and D is that Muslims and other sympathetic folk won't vote for parties that support the mass killing of Muslims. Labour doesn't need to move to the left in the sense of trans rights, DEI, economic or environmental policy. It just needs to stop toadying to the USA and Israel when those countries embark on killing sprees.
I think a little more than that is required, but in any case that ship has sailed.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
You mean, like the Conservatives?
We are seeing the political fragmentation of the country into areas or regions where two or perhaps three parties have an interest and other parties are nowhere.
The LDs have never been a national party and the Conservatives are no longer either - both will be fighting 100-125 seats in England at the next election, many will be the same but not all.
As for Reform, Labour and the Greens they will be excluded from most of those 100-125 seats in all honesty and they will be fighting other seats in other places alongside local Independents such as in my neck of the woods.
Labour might be able to fight 400 seats in England, Reform possibly 250-300 and Greens 100 based on opportunities and resources.
Last night's result will give the Greens a fillip in London and where they have no local pro-Muslim Independent group they will do well - Reform didn't do badly and I think they will surprise in Labour areas in London if perhaps less so in Conservative ones.
It was a poor though unsurprising result for the LDs and an awful result for the Conservatives and just goes to show how far having "an excellent candidate" doesn't take you. It was a better night for Labour in Southampton but another poor local council by-election for the Conservatives.
In that Southampton by-election the LDs won through, despite a surge in the Green vote:
LD - 975 Labour - 954 Reform - 681 Green - 539 Tory - 288 Ind - 122 TUSC - 16
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
No, the way that 5 (or more in Scotland and Wales) party politics plays out in a country wedded to FPTP elections is that each party wins in different places. LDs will continue to do well in the yellow belt across Southern England and be the main opponent of Tories and Reform there. Tories willl retreat to prosperous Shires. Neither will be competitive elsewhere.
I wonder if Reform will continue to be so inefficiently distributed vote wise. It was their Achillies Heel in July 24, and was yesterday too. Labour may fall into the same trap with Greens snapping up their previously "safe seats". That Starmer win of wide but shallow support is vulnerable to the same result as Reform.
Any seat Boris won in 2019, which excludes Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton and which did not go from Tory in 2019 to LD in 2024 is now vulnerable to Reform. So Farage's party is at least efficient enough to still win most seats
I don't think that Reform will win where there is a clear tactical vote against them. G and D and Carphilly demonstrate that very neatly, and that voters are well motivated to do so.
Yes but those seats voted for Labour even in 2017 and 2019, they are not swing seats ie the ones that voted Conservative in 2019 but Labour in 2024. Whether those seats vote tactically against Reform will be key
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
For reasons I posted above, the logic doesn’t support that. Greens are drawing voters from the Corbynites. Might as well say there’s an interesting write up that has an SNP collapse in favour of Plaid Cymru.
Some lib dems are genuinely committed to the political center, bit I think there's a bunch of squishy feel-good types who don't like the main parties. I think the sense of energy behind the greens could attract them and I don't think the left wing platform would put them off
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
South Woodford Waitrose is only just across the boundary
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
Not really, for as I said most LD seats now voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015, they are not going Green, unlike inner city Labour seats
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
The role of the observers is to observe, not to interfere.
In practice when you are touring polling stations it might not feel safe to report concerns to the staff there and then but you would report it back to your agent, with evidence who would then instantly report the concern to the Returning Officer or his staff.
Dead people voting and personation is generally not obvious to tellers outside polling stations but only reveals itself when you check the polling numbers against the marked register. The phenomenon of three dead people voting in Kirkby Lonsdale of all places shows this is much more rife that those not used to electioneering imagine. "Well what did you do about it ?" Well nothing because we didn't know they were dead when the numbers were collected. Obviously we MIGHT well have challenged a result where it mattered, and there is a mechanism for searching the polls against the counterfoils but I don't think it has actually been done in 50 years.
I could rewrite electoral law with my experience, not in any partisan way but to make it absolutely clear what could and couldn't be done.
Sadly, I think that electoral law generally written decades ago and that still works for seats such as rural Cumbria, no longer applies in places such as Tower Hamlets and Gorton & Denton.
There needs to be a block on automatic postal votes, and GE day should be a public holiday.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
For reasons I posted above, the logic doesn’t support that. Greens are drawing voters from the Corbynites. Might as well say there’s an interesting write up that has an SNP collapse in favour of Plaid Cymru.
Some lib dems are genuinely committed to the political center, bit I think there's a bunch of squishy feel-good types who don't like the main parties. I think the sense of energy behind the greens could attract them and I don't think the left wing platform would put them off
I've voted Green the last three GEs myself, as well as once in a council election
Firstly sending material out without an imprint should bar the candidate under all circumstances and for my view the Reform candidate ought to have been barred for that full stop.
The counter, sending out material to fake another candidate should be an offence.
Sending out "neutral" material should be a £5,000 fine.
Anything sent out by post should have a sticker on it which has to be bought instead of an ordinary stamp showing whether it was individual or bulk but so the Post Office has a track of the quantites sent out. That could be easy now that stamps have changed.
Sending mail with an ordinary stamp should be an offence and conniving in such practice should bar that candidate and any other candidates with the same agent.
Obviously if any candidate says vote for another candidate then their expenses should be added to that candidate's
The Imprints should be in English or in Wales Welsh - they are having a similar issue in NZ at the moment.
I can't see much that can or ought to be done with electronic material but there needs to be an imprint or the equivalent.
Banning foreign donations because they won't be for us is very New Labour and not a good idea.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
You can't apply vote changes from a by-election across the country like that to any useful end. By-election swings are typically much larger, not least because the intense campaigning generally turbocharges tactical voting.
You would expect the view changes to be different in a seat where the Tories were first or second at GE2024.
Badenoch has pulled the Tory polling up from its nadir. There's a long way to go to recover the ground lost since the last GE, but I think they are a lot less doomed than they appeared to be six months ago.
Am I the only person thinking she’s doing quite a good job?
Her solution for tuition fees is not a good one however she astutely gave the attention to the issue of tuition fees and has charted a course that isn’t going after pensioners. Something I have been calling for, for years.
There’s a space for a Tory Party that would do very well with the let’s say 25-45 age bracket. She’s made the first attempt at speaking to them.
They need to do away with their NIMBYism streak next.
If they stop being nimbys their support will halve immediately.
She may be ok, but the party is on life support. It'll survive to 2029 (though she won't) but it's 50/50 if they merge fully with Reform or a rump remains.
If the 25-45 Plan 2 generation vote for the Party that introduced Plan 2 tuition fees then you'd have to question whether they should have been accepted for University
I don't think that suggestion from Badenoch can compete with the Green Party proposing to abolish tuition fees.
The problem with abolishing tuition fees is its the Corbyn solution. Nowhere near enough people believed that Corbyn's labour government could pay for all the goodies it promised and the same will happen here. The Greens are fishing in the same pool as Corbyn was.
I'm glad reform didn't win, and its hilarious to see the grace with which Farage has accepted the defeat. But I have no time for a party that campaigned in a by-election for Westminster with Gaza and teaching about sex in schools at the same time. Its like Gays for Gaza all over again.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
South Woodford Waitrose is only just across the boundary
Tricky to get over the wire and evade the sentries, especially so with the shopping bags on the way back.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone is telling stories then. Interesting.
It's the Trump (-lite) playbook, which they assume will excuse their failure with and fire up their base in the likes of Essex and Lincs, isn't it?
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
You mean, like the Conservatives?.
Exactly like the Conservatives. Not quite sure what the point is? All I am saying is that our political system has undeniably changed but there is no reason why national parties should just accept it and move on. By virtue of being national parties they should work to appeal to a national voter base. If they’ve decided that’s not for them, fine, but they are then regional minority parties not national ones.
Even at their respective zeniths, the Conservative and Labour parties didn't fight every single seat. No party had the resources then and none has now. If you aren't a presence in a seat, how can you campaign to get votes? How can you be aware of the local issues? Yes, if you have councillors it helps and GE campaigning is often just an extension of ongoing local activity.
That means messaging varies - the message in Godalming isn't the same as Gorton - the message in Esher isn't the same as East Ham. However much we may wish it, our politics is becoming an extension of the socio-economic reality of the United Kingdom - there isn't a single homogenous block (I doubt there ever was) and we are a series of different and disparate areas with differing needs and aspirations.
The Greens appear to be at a particular point in a cycle. Three things converge: polling rise, great victory in by election, lots of attention. A fourth factor is also in place: their policies at the moment involve uncountable quantities of free money to everyone who might possibly vote for them combined with quick fix solutions to everything.
Reform have had to move on from this, and there is a lot further to go. They have stalled in the polls The Greens might start getting a bit of serious attention now.
It isn't possible to be popular, realistic and truthful about governing in the current climate.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
"Gails is the Greggs of the middle class" to quote Mrs Foxy.
The Greens appear to be at a particular point in a cycle. Three things converge: polling rise, great victory in by election, lots of attention. A fourth factor is also in place: their policies at the moment involve uncountable quantities of free money to everyone who might possibly vote for them combined with quick fix solutions to everything.
Reform have had to move on from this, and there is a lot further to go. They have stalled in the polls The Greens might start getting a bit of serious attention now.
It isn't possible to be popular, realistic and truthful about governing in the current climate.
Unless, as mentioned by some posters below, you can start to be identified as a generational voice. Britain has needed a party of the young for many decades now.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
It’s not fertile ground for them now, but given the history of sizeable LD protest votes in seats of this profile (see for instance the post-Iraq war years) it must be a little concerning to see the party eclipsed as the natural protest vote in contests of this type. Clearly their focus lies on the shires and semi-rural formerly Tory seats now, but twas not always thus.
The danger is the LDs become a bit passé.
No, the way that 5 (or more in Scotland and Wales) party politics plays out in a country wedded to FPTP elections is that each party wins in different places. LDs will continue to do well in the yellow belt across Southern England and be the main opponent of Tories and Reform there. Tories willl retreat to prosperous Shires. Neither will be competitive elsewhere.
I wonder if Reform will continue to be so inefficiently distributed vote wise. It was their Achillies Heel in July 24, and was yesterday too. Labour may fall into the same trap with Greens snapping up their previously "safe seats". That Starmer win of wide but shallow support is vulnerable to the same result as Reform.
Any seat Boris won in 2019, which excludes Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton and which did not go from Tory in 2019 to LD in 2024 is now vulnerable to Reform. So Farage's party is at least efficient enough to still win most seats
I don't think that Reform will win where there is a clear tactical vote against them. G and D and Carphilly demonstrate that very neatly, and that voters are well motivated to do so.
Yes but those seats voted for Labour even in 2017 and 2019, they are not swing seats ie the ones that voted Conservative in 2019 but Labour in 2024. Whether those seats vote tactically against Reform will be key
Looking at Reform’s target seats it’s a real mixed bag. You have to say there’s some on the list that in numerical terms alone look like low hanging fruit but given the seat demographics are probably quite challenging for them. On the flip side there’s some safer seats numerically that I think they’d win at a canter right now.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone is telling stories then. Interesting.
It's the Trump (-lite) playbook, which they assume will excuse their failure with and fire up their base in the likes of Essex and Lincs, isn't it?
Except that the election monitors in question aren’t Trump/Reform adjacent, I understand.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
I have no idea however if they are “independent observers” I guess their role is to observe and then report what they see. If it happened and the people running the polling station didn’t do anything to stop it then that is an observation and the electoral commission will need to react and ensure that polling staff prevent it in the future.
When independent observers go to elections around the world they don’t step in at polling and intervene, they observe and report. Dangerous ground if independent observers start intervening as next thing all the parties have “independent observers” at polling stations stepping in and causing chaos.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
I assume they’re really referring to postal votes, where one household member fills in the forms for everyone. But that’s still lazy.
If the 9k figure quoted earlier for postal ballots is accurate, at most it shows a channel where undue influence could happen. It doesn’t show it did happen here, and it doesn’t show those voters wouldn’t have turned out in person anyway.
There is an argument to be had about postal voting, but I think this is not the right one.
AIUI it was not postal voting, it was observations in the polling locations. Why would we doubt it? Largely Muslim population, well known that Muslim populations can be rather patriarchal, would be no surprise at all to see husbands going in with wives (illegally) and telling them how to vote.
And to be honest most people in the country be they Muslim or not probably aren't really aware that it is illegal.
You play on the pitch where the match is being held.
Yes, family voting is a thing. Labour has benefited from it enormously in the past. Anyone with any tactical nous campaigning in a Muslim constituency (or division, or ward) knows about it. We have a city councillor round here who is thick as cowshit and whose continued presence is only attributable to - let's say - community ties.
Reform squealing about it, as if it has come as some great surprise to them, is just further evidence that they have no local organisation. Reform are, more or less, a media-created construct. That can get you a long way - in many places across Britain, people now spend more time consuming the media (in its widest definition) than interacting with community networks of the sort that still exist in Muslim areas. But it's not yet clear that Reform actually have the organisation to win the 300 seats the polls are projecting.
There are wives outside the South Asian community who defer to their husbands’ views too. MAGA encourage that attitude on the other side of the Atlantic. What’s the solution? Clear civics lessons in schools?
Wives deferring to their husbands view isn't the problem. Sometimes my elderly mum will ask me who she should vote for in local elections as I generally know the candidates personally. The problems is if the sanctity of secret ballot was compromised in the polling station. Said wives should be able to vote against their husband's wishes without them knowing. If polling workers have failed to enforce the rules or have felt too intimidated to do so then that should be investigated.
Addressing the polling station issue when huge numbers vote by post is to check the locks on the front door while the back door is open. One day it will become obvious that having no proper checks on postal voting is a significant mistake.
I would get postal voting back to its original intent - only for when you cannot make it to the polling booth. Its a disgrace that what we allow to happen.
Firstly sending material out without an imprint should bar the candidate under all circumstances and for my view the Reform candidate ought to have been barred for that full stop.
The counter, sending out material to fake another candidate should be an offence.
Sending out "neutral" material should be a £5,000 fine.
Anything sent out by post should have a sticker on it which has to be bought instead of an ordinary stamp showing whether it was individual or bulk but so the Post Office has a track of the quantites sent out. That could be easy now that stamps have changed.
Sending mail with an ordinary stamp should be an offence and conniving in such practice should bar that candidate and any other candidates with the same agent.
Obviously if any candidate says vote for another candidate then their expenses should be added to that candidate's
The Imprints should be in English or in Wales Welsh - they are having a similar issue in NZ at the moment.
I can't see much that can or ought to be done with electronic material but there needs to be an imprint or the equivalent.
Banning foreign donations because they won't be for us is very New Labour and not a good idea.
Foreign donations are already supposed to be banned. A problem now is attempts at “soft money” stuff - social media that just happens to target voters etc.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
The Greens appear to be at a particular point in a cycle. Three things converge: polling rise, great victory in by election, lots of attention. A fourth factor is also in place: their policies at the moment involve uncountable quantities of free money to everyone who might possibly vote for them combined with quick fix solutions to everything.
Reform have had to move on from this, and there is a lot further to go. They have stalled in the polls The Greens might start getting a bit of serious attention now.
It isn't possible to be popular, realistic and truthful about governing in the current climate.
Unless, as mentioned by some posters below, you can start to be identified as a generational voice. Britain has needed a party of the young for many decades now.
The Labour policy seems to have been piss off pensioners, piss off younger people , lose their Muslim voters and chase the Reform vote . I’m actually surprised their polling isn’t worse !
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
For reasons I posted above, the logic doesn’t support that. Greens are drawing voters from the Corbynites. Might as well say there’s an interesting write up that has an SNP collapse in favour of Plaid Cymru.
Yes there is a greater segmentation of the political landscape.
The Greens, to be fair to them, have now identified a potentially fruitful area to focus. That is traditionally strong Labour seats in urban areas. That opens up a lot more opportunities than their previous focus of highly liberal urban areas like Brighton or Bristol.
The Lib Dems will retain their focus in the south of England.
The question is how often the Green-Labour urban split let's Reform (or the Tories) through the middle.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
I have no idea however if they are “independent observers” I guess their role is to observe and then report what they see. If it happened and the people running the polling station didn’t do anything to stop it then that is an observation and the electoral commission will need to react and ensure that polling staff prevent it in the future.
When independent observers go to elections around the world they don’t step in at polling and intervene, they observe and report. Dangerous ground if independent observers start intervening as next thing all the parties have “independent observers” at polling stations stepping in and causing chaos.
They’re a well-known group, acting on behalf of the Electoral Commision. They’re not partisan activists.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
The LDs are now essentially boxed in mostly to the Home Counties areas where the Greens aren't established. Had last night's by-election been in, say, East Grinstead, they'd have played the role that the Greens just did, with Reform coming in second, just the same.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Greens fare in the rural seats they picked up at the last GE. Both won on the back of local dissatisfaction with environmental disasters. I suspect they’ll survive and maybe even increase their majorities if the Tory vote continues to collapse, but if there’s a Tory recovery I’m not so sure.
The Greens are no longer an environmental party first and foremost. They are misnamed. The Lib Dems have a long established history of meaningful green policies. They are, arguably, the “Teal” option. I am not worried about Greens eclipsing us, because of anything they’ve abandoned our patch and are playing elsewhere now, in seats where the LDs have always been also-rans.
@Steven_Swinford This is the official Labour line this morning. Labour is comparing the Greens to Galloway and his failure to build on his own electoral successes
Labour source: “The Greens can win a by-election, but they cannot win a general election.
“George Galloway - who backed the Greens in this by-election - won seats mid-term, only to lose them again. And he certainly never became PM.
“The Green Party’s policies, including legalising all drugs and withdrawing from NATO, are not a serious programme for government."
The odd thing about this strategy is that Labour spent the entire by-election trying to pretend that the Greens didn't exist
Starmer said repeatedly that Labour was in a 'straight fight' with Reform UK. The Greens were excised from bar charts on leaflets. It attempted to present a genuine three-horse raise as a binary. The whole strategy looks surreal
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
"Gails is the Greggs of the middle class" to quote Mrs Foxy.
Isn't it for the Hyacinth Buckets of the area ?
It would be interesting to see the overlap between Gails and the Poundbakery chain.
Goodwin's whinging comes across as pathetic. Did he expect Muslims to vote for a party that demonises them? The only thing that would have happened if more people had stayed with Labour is his party would have been pushed to third place.
I am a bit suspicious of these "family voting" allegations. If they were not drawn to the attention of the polling station staff (who meticululously apply the rules in my experience) then how are these allegations to be investigated or substantiated?
Apparently they were reporting to polling station staff, at the time. And were observed reporting them by members of the media.
I understand from Manchester Concil that no reports were made to polling staff nor police.
Someone said on Today that they believed they couldn’t report it as can only observe but not intervene. Not sure if this is true but I’m sure that whatever people already feel/believe will find the answer/excuse they want and nothing will happen further.
If they failed to report it to the authorities, and obviously didn't film or record it then how on earth do they expect it to be investigated?
Are you allowed to film in polling stations - genuine question?
No! You're not even allowed to photo your own ballot paper
Hence the observers not filming the alleged activity.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
There’s an interesting writeup that has a LibDem collapse in favour of the Greens at the general election.
For reasons I posted above, the logic doesn’t support that. Greens are drawing voters from the Corbynites. Might as well say there’s an interesting write up that has an SNP collapse in favour of Plaid Cymru.
Yes there is a greater segmentation of the political landscape.
The Greens, to be fair to them, have now identified a potentially fruitful area to focus. That is traditionally strong Labour seats in urban areas. That opens up a lot more opportunities than their previous focus of highly liberal urban areas like Brighton or Bristol.
The Lib Dems will retain their focus in the south of England.
The question is how often the Green-Labour urban split let's Reform (or the Tories) through the middle.
Those of us against Reform got lucky here. In other seats any sort of left wing split could let Reform in .
You play on the pitch where the match is being held.
Yes, family voting is a thing. Labour has benefited from it enormously in the past. Anyone with any tactical nous campaigning in a Muslim constituency (or division, or ward) knows about it. We have a city councillor round here who is thick as cowshit and whose continued presence is only attributable to - let's say - community ties.
Reform squealing about it, as if it has come as some great surprise to them, is just further evidence that they have no local organisation. Reform are, more or less, a media-created construct. That can get you a long way - in many places across Britain, people now spend more time consuming the media (in its widest definition) than interacting with community networks of the sort that still exist in Muslim areas. But it's not yet clear that Reform actually have the organisation to win the 300 seats the polls are projecting.
There are wives outside the South Asian community who defer to their husbands’ views too. MAGA encourage that attitude on the other side of the Atlantic. What’s the solution? Clear civics lessons in schools?
Bonkers isn't it! I've never herad such a feeble excuse for failure. Even Big_G on here announces who he AND HIS WIFE are goint to vote for.
Even the notion that people are being coersed has a racist vibe. I wish Reform would go and drown themselves
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
No Gail's or Waitrose in Streeting and Sunil's Ilford North either!
"Gails is the Greggs of the middle class" to quote Mrs Foxy.
Isn't it for the Hyacinth Buckets of the area ?
It would be interesting to see the overlap between Gails and the Poundbakery chain.
Come to Liverpool Street station, you will see a Gail's literally next door to a Greggs!
You play on the pitch where the match is being held.
Yes, family voting is a thing. Labour has benefited from it enormously in the past. Anyone with any tactical nous campaigning in a Muslim constituency (or division, or ward) knows about it. We have a city councillor round here who is thick as cowshit and whose continued presence is only attributable to - let's say - community ties.
Reform squealing about it, as if it has come as some great surprise to them, is just further evidence that they have no local organisation. Reform are, more or less, a media-created construct. That can get you a long way - in many places across Britain, people now spend more time consuming the media (in its widest definition) than interacting with community networks of the sort that still exist in Muslim areas. But it's not yet clear that Reform actually have the organisation to win the 300 seats the polls are projecting.
There are wives outside the South Asian community who defer to their husbands’ views too. MAGA encourage that attitude on the other side of the Atlantic. What’s the solution? Clear civics lessons in schools?
Wives deferring to their husbands view isn't the problem. Sometimes my elderly mum will ask me who she should vote for in local elections as I generally know the candidates personally. The problems is if the sanctity of secret ballot was compromised in the polling station. Said wives should be able to vote against their husband's wishes without them knowing. If polling workers have failed to enforce the rules or have felt too intimidated to do so then that should be investigated.
Addressing the polling station issue when huge numbers vote by post is to check the locks on the front door while the back door is open. One day it will become obvious that having no proper checks on postal voting is a significant mistake.
I can understand how you can only allow one person in the pollng Booth, which would maintain the secret ballot. I'm not sure how that can extend to the open area in front of the tellers desks. It's impossible to stop us talking to each other unless you allow only one person in the station at a time.
My wife and I always discuss who to vote for (before we go to the polling place) and usually agree a consensus candidate despite our politics not being the same.
I’m not sure a Muslim bloc vote mobilising behind a party with a deputy leader that supports Hamas and praises the October 7 Islamist rapes and pogroms of the Jews is “a victory for integration”, to be perfectly honest
Firstly sending material out without an imprint should bar the candidate under all circumstances and for my view the Reform candidate ought to have been barred for that full stop.
The counter, sending out material to fake another candidate should be an offence.
Sending out "neutral" material should be a £5,000 fine.
Anything sent out by post should have a sticker on it which has to be bought instead of an ordinary stamp showing whether it was individual or bulk but so the Post Office has a track of the quantites sent out. That could be easy now that stamps have changed.
Sending mail with an ordinary stamp should be an offence and conniving in such practice should bar that candidate and any other candidates with the same agent.
Obviously if any candidate says vote for another candidate then their expenses should be added to that candidate's
The Imprints should be in English or in Wales Welsh - they are having a similar issue in NZ at the moment.
I can't see much that can or ought to be done with electronic material but there needs to be an imprint or the equivalent.
Banning foreign donations because they won't be for us is very New Labour and not a good idea.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
No Gail's or Waitrose in Gorton and Denton, I am afraid it simply is not posh enough to vote LD now.
Charles Kennedy's LDs could have won it but most of those voters now back the Greens, the LDs now are largely made up of anti Brexit voters who voted for Cameron or Clegg in 2015
I can report back that my constituency now has two Waitrose's and two Gail's.
At the last election it already had two Waitrose's, but only one Gail's. So I think it's safe to say the Lib Dem incumbent should keep their seat.
Gail's uses delicious ingredients and so their cafes always smell nice.
They are the latest target for the PSC. It seems the original Gail - no longer involved with the business - was an Israeli. So, of course, that means buying one of their rather nice cheese scones means that you're 'funding genocide'.
But also very bad indeed for the Lib Dems, who have failed to capitalise on the collapse of the two parties who (barring the Coalition) have held power since World War II, and Your Party, who have spent so much time trying to fight each other they were unable to take advantage of a historic opportunity.
Meanwhile, the left wing lunatics and the latest Faragian vehicle are doing very well indeed.
LibDems either do brilliantly or terribly at by-elections. G&D was clearly not fertile ground for the party. We were last at the general election with 4%.
The LDs are now essentially boxed in mostly to the Home Counties areas where the Greens aren't established. Had last night's by-election been in, say, East Grinstead, they'd have played the role that the Greens just did, with Reform coming in second, just the same.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Greens fare in the rural seats they picked up at the last GE. Both won on the back of local dissatisfaction with environmental disasters. I suspect they’ll survive and maybe even increase their majorities if the Tory vote continues to collapse, but if there’s a Tory recovery I’m not so sure.
The Greens are no longer an environmental party first and foremost. They are misnamed. The Lib Dems have a long established history of meaningful green policies. They are, arguably, the “Teal” option. I am not worried about Greens eclipsing us, because of anything they’ve abandoned our patch and are playing elsewhere now, in seats where the LDs have always been also-rans.
I've missed this "tax women with miscarriages" thing. It's seems like a overreaction to a sensible policy to me - do we extend the same logic to child benefit, child element of UC etc etc? I've always thought a tax allowance based on the number of dependent children would be a sensible policy - basic allowance = state pension, £7.5k additional for each child (per household). Bring a single parent with two kids on minimum wage entirely out of tax.
Comments
Though yes the Tories have leaked significant numbers of over 50s to Reform so overall are still down on the last general election but the one positive is the average Tory is now younger under Kemi than they were under Rishi
If the LDs are perfectly happy that they never win many or any northern urban seats again and they are happy essentially being a party of the leafy shires, fine, but it’s only 15 or so years ago they didn’t have such narrow aims.
If the 9k figure quoted earlier for postal ballots is accurate, at most it shows a channel where undue influence could happen. It doesn’t show it did happen here, and it doesn’t show those voters wouldn’t have turned out in person anyway.
There is an argument to be had about postal voting, but I think this is not the right one.
Get that youth mobility scheme up and running and stop chasing Reform voters . Their Reform lite tribute act has the ending it deserved .
We are seeing the political fragmentation of the country into areas or regions where two or perhaps three parties have an interest and other parties are nowhere.
The LDs have never been a national party and the Conservatives are no longer either - both will be fighting 100-125 seats in England at the next election, many will be the same but not all.
As for Reform, Labour and the Greens they will be excluded from most of those 100-125 seats in all honesty and they will be fighting other seats in other places alongside local Independents such as in my neck of the woods.
Labour might be able to fight 400 seats in England, Reform possibly 250-300 and Greens 100 based on opportunities and resources.
Last night's result will give the Greens a fillip in London and where they have no local pro-Muslim Independent group they will do well - Reform didn't do badly and I think they will surprise in Labour areas in London if perhaps less so in Conservative ones.
It was a poor though unsurprising result for the LDs and an awful result for the Conservatives and just goes to show how far having "an excellent candidate" doesn't take you. It was a better night for Labour in Southampton but another poor local council by-election for the Conservatives.
I'm not sure, other than Labour as the governing party, any other party has such a strong disadvantage when tactical voting comes into play.
If they can get to 35% then none of this matters - they win. But at 30% it's touch and go. At 25%, even if in the lead, I suspect they'll just pile up a lot of second places.
Lots to play for over the next 2-3 years.
Dead people voting and personation is generally not obvious to tellers outside polling stations but only reveals itself when you check the polling numbers against the marked register. The phenomenon of three dead people voting in Kirkby Lonsdale of all places shows this is much more rife that those not used to electioneering imagine. "Well what did you do about it ?" Well nothing because we didn't know they were dead when the numbers were collected. Obviously we MIGHT well have challenged a result where it mattered, and there is a mechanism for searching the polls against the counterfoils but I don't think it has actually been done in 50 years.
I could rewrite electoral law with my experience, not in any partisan way but to make it absolutely clear what could and couldn't be done.
The Greens are no longer an environmental party first and foremost. They are misnamed. The Lib Dems have a long established history of meaningful green policies. They are, arguably, the “Teal” option. I am not worried about Greens eclipsing us, because of anything they’ve abandoned our patch and are playing elsewhere now, in seats where the LDs have always been also-rans.
The BBC report is that Democracy Volunteers observed 545 cast votes and 32 cases of family voting, affecting 12% of voters.
They report a baseline figure of 1-2% across their observations, including 1% in Runcorn, so perhaps 3 cases.
So, there is a background level going on, but it is low, and I think we can reasonably draw that this is predominantly Muslim voters in this case.
What I don't know is what level of influence is being reported on, whether it is all interference in the booth, or a lower level "what are we doing" prior to the booth, pointing at the ballot box? We do need DV to be clear on exactly what they have observed, and whether any admonition and direction was provided by election officers to "not do that", which should suffice in many cases.
It needs investigating, understanding, and if need be stronger direction provided to election officers in handling cases. At strongest that could be something like urinal spacing voting - allowing officers to direct a (husband) at the first booth and a (wife) at the third, or making the husband clear the polling station before his wife votes.
Now, in terms of the election, Greens had a 12% majority, and we had 12% family voting. Let's say, at worst, this was all interference in the booth. However, half of the reported family voting was the influencer, whose ballot was presumably their own will, half was the influencee.
Even if you take it to its limit, that every single influenced (Muslim wife) voter was the highest level pressured to vote Green at the ballot box when they would have otherwise voted Reform, a fairly incredible proposition, you don't overturn the Green win here. More credible to think that such family voting could have prevented Labour from coming second in reality.
So, in summary, the take away here is to understand the nature of what happened in each case, from DV, from anything seen or intervened with by the election officers, and take away what extra we need to do next time in the polling station to squash down on these practices. No more, no less.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorton_and_Denton
Lab/Green/Workers 75% at GE, 66% at by-election suggests a definite swing to Reform
Longterm trend appears to be Labour losing support to Green/Workers and now Green
Reform have picked up 5000 voters, 2000 from Conservatives so probably 3000 from Labour, leaving 5000 Labour switching to Green.
Green have picked up 10000 (3800 workers, 1000 LD, 5000 Labour?)
But actually I think there was a big tactical play. In which case almost losing to the squeezed party and massive gap with the winning party isn't where they need to be in a seat where they should expect to be at least a close second.
PATRIOT NUMBER ONE 🏴
@nickisafraud
Amina, 35 ans: "I want to vote for Matt Goodwin.... he's so handsome..."
Mahmud, 45 ans: "By Allah no wife of mine shall vote for anyone other than Hannah Spencer. Trans rights are human rights inshallah."
5:59 am · 27 Feb 2026
https://x.com/nickisafraud/status/2027262287933809138?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
My new favourite Labour MP is Karl Turner (?), sounded like a character from a Peter Kay comedy.
The Greens' candidate selection process, and their general professionalism, is obviously improving as well.
Also there’s got to be a less than zero chance of a Zarah Sultana flounce from YP to Green?
Anyone suggesting that 1 in 4 of in-person votes was coerced?
LD - 975
Labour - 954
Reform - 681
Green - 539
Tory - 288
Ind - 122
TUSC - 16
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15597989/Pro-Palestine-activists-vandalise-Winston-Churchill-statue-zionist-war-criminal-slogans.html
There needs to be a block on automatic postal votes, and GE day should be a public holiday.
Firstly sending material out without an imprint should bar the candidate under all circumstances and for my view the Reform candidate ought to have been barred for that full stop.
The counter, sending out material to fake another candidate should be an offence.
Sending out "neutral" material should be a £5,000 fine.
Anything sent out by post should have a sticker on it which has to be bought instead of an ordinary stamp showing whether it was individual or bulk but so the Post Office has a track of the quantites sent out. That could be easy now that stamps have changed.
Sending mail with an ordinary stamp should be an offence and conniving in such practice should bar that candidate and any other candidates with the same agent.
Obviously if any candidate says vote for another candidate then their expenses should be added to that candidate's
The Imprints should be in English or in Wales Welsh - they are having a similar issue in NZ at the moment.
I can't see much that can or ought to be done with electronic material but there needs to be an imprint or the equivalent.
Banning foreign donations because they won't be for us is very New Labour and not a good idea.
I'm glad reform didn't win, and its hilarious to see the grace with which Farage has accepted the defeat. But I have no time for a party that campaigned in a by-election for Westminster with Gaza and teaching about sex in schools at the same time. Its like Gays for Gaza all over again.
That means messaging varies - the message in Godalming isn't the same as Gorton - the message in Esher isn't the same as East Ham. However much we may wish it, our politics is becoming an extension of the socio-economic reality of the United Kingdom - there isn't a single homogenous block (I doubt there ever was) and we are a series of different and disparate areas with differing needs and aspirations.
Politics has to reflect that - how could it not?
Reform have had to move on from this, and there is a lot further to go. They have stalled in the polls The Greens might start getting a bit of serious attention now.
It isn't possible to be popular, realistic and truthful about governing in the current climate.
When independent observers go to elections around the world they don’t step in at polling and intervene, they observe and report. Dangerous ground if independent observers start intervening as next thing all the parties have “independent observers” at polling stations stepping in and causing chaos.
And to be honest most people in the country be they Muslim or not probably aren't really aware that it is illegal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRgHSxWnhqk
Congratulations to Matt Goodwin on his appointment as Shadow MP for Gorton and Denton.
Guess who is behind a lot of that?
The Greens, to be fair to them, have now identified a potentially fruitful area to focus. That is traditionally strong Labour seats in urban areas. That opens up a lot more opportunities than their previous focus of highly liberal urban areas like Brighton or Bristol.
The Lib Dems will retain their focus in the south of England.
The question is how often the Green-Labour urban split let's Reform (or the Tories) through the middle.
https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/2027142542685311359
This is the official Labour line this morning. Labour is comparing the Greens to Galloway and his failure to build on his own electoral successes
Labour source: “The Greens can win a by-election, but they cannot win a general election.
“George Galloway - who backed the Greens in this by-election - won seats mid-term, only to lose them again. And he certainly never became PM.
“The Green Party’s policies, including legalising all drugs and withdrawing from NATO, are not a serious programme for government."
The odd thing about this strategy is that Labour spent the entire by-election trying to pretend that the Greens didn't exist
Starmer said repeatedly that Labour was in a 'straight fight' with Reform UK. The Greens were excised from bar charts on leaflets. It attempted to present a genuine three-horse raise as a binary. The whole strategy looks surreal
It would be interesting to see the overlap between Gails and the Poundbakery chain.
Even the notion that people are being coersed has a racist vibe. I wish Reform would go and drown themselves
The Greens are now shorter in the betting than the Conservatives to win the most seats at the next GE.
Following last night's by-election, here's how we bet:
Reform UK - 7/4
Labour - 2/1
Greens - 11/2
Conservatives - 6/1
Restore Britain - 16/1
Lib Dems - 33/1
Your Party - 200/1
This result must be a wake up call. It’s time to really listen - and to reflect.
Voters want the change that we promised - and they voted for.
If we want to unrig the system, if we want to make the change we were sent into Government to make, we have to be braver.
A labour agenda that puts people first.
That’s what all of us across our movement need to rededicate ourselves to this morning.
At the last election it already had two Waitrose's, but only one Gail's. So I think it's safe to say the Lib Dem incumbent should keep their seat.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.253645106