Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Who to believe ? It's not as though either are particularly reliable sources, and it sounds like motivated reasoning on both sides.
Competing claims now about the status of Iran’s HEU. Senator Markwayne Mullin, on the Armed Services Committee, says U.S. intel determined Iran hadn’t moved it from Fordow before the American strike; two Israeli officials told NYT they likely did. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1937398505611636908
The last official location of the HEU, according to the IAEA on June 13, was Isfahan not Fordo. The tunnels there are said to be both deeper and in harder rock than Fordo. There's also a decent chance the HEU was moved anyway, as it was supposedly in easily transportable barrels.
What the US/Israel have done is target the known enrichment facilities, basically to stop or slow the final stages of enrichment, they have probably achieved their aims. It is a lot less likely that they have destroyed or secured the HEU itself, and Iran if it still posesses it will likely disperse it in many new sites.
The problem is that Iran no longer needs large scale enrichment facilities they can go slowly and still have enough weapons grade HEU quite soon for a handful of bombs. At which point external attemps at regime change are likely to cease, in the same way that nobody talks about toppling the North Korean regime since they developed the bomb.
It's not quite that easy: you can distribute a enrichment cascade, but it adds time and complexity to the process. And each cetrifuge only does a small amount of the enruchment, so getting 90kg or so of 80+% U235 is probably still a far amount of work.
But your fundamental point is, I think, sound. That is: getting the centrifuges and not the HEU just delays thing somewhat.
Hypothetically, what would prevent their secretly exchanging 200k of their enriched uranium with say 100k of weapons grade from Pakistan ?
They do, after all, share a border.
Plausibly deniable as having enriched it themselves.
People talk, and Pakistan has no wish to incur US disfavour.
Mind you, Pakistan has nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize. And I think Trump is sufficiently narcissistic that he would be happy for Iran to get a nuclear bomb, so long as he got the prize.
If the Tories ended up with 31 seats they would be in so much shell shock the last thing they would be thinking of would be government. Presumably they wouldn't even have any parliamentary structure or leadership left. It would take weeks or months to sort themselves out
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
A conundrum for Kemi. Should she agree to *not* cutting benefits? Bear trap alert sounded.
The "ceasefire agreement" (which Iran hasn't formally accepted), seems to give Israel an additional twelve hours of hostilities after Iran is expected to desist. Is that a correct reading ? https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937369989914272024
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
It does look mad, although we'd need absolute numbers as well to show that. For example, I'd expect PIP claims from young women to be fairly low, so the huge % increase may be small numbers.
Nevertheless, from personal experience I'm broadly on the government's side on this, as I know of PIP claims and amounts that are pretty hard to justify. Anecdotal, I know.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The "ceasefire agreement" (which Iran hasn't formally accepted), seems to give Israel an additional twelve hours of hostilities after Iran is expected to desist. Is that a correct reading ? https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937369989914272024
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Not long after I was diagnosed with high-functioning autism - more than two decades ago now - I was told that I could claim for Disability Living Allowance (which PIP replaced).
It's possible to construct a logical argument that my life is more difficult than a normal person's as a result of being autistic (and therefore would qualify), but I took (and take) the view that it wasn't so much more difficult that I wanted to go through the process of persuading someone that I was mentally disabled and incapable enough to require financial assistance from the state. There has to be a threshold somewhere, and it surely shouldn't be so low that I would qualify.
It might be that the large percentage increases (most likely from a low base) are due to people being encouraged to claim in similar circumstances, with improved diagnosis of young women with high-functioning autism or other conditions that are moderately debilitating.
FWIW, my wife also never made a claim, despite her condition (hypermobile EDS) preventing her from working, because we've been able to live off my income, and making a claim felt like it would take more effort than she had, which she'd rather use for something more enjoyable.
The system seems to be simultaneously too difficult for many genuinely needy to claim, and yet paying out to a credulity-straining number of people.
Another £30bn on defence. U turn on winter fuel. Rebellion on plans which just slightly slow huge increases in spending on disability benefits.
If spending goes only one way then so, inevitably, will tax. Historic increases already this decade. Looks like a lot more to come.
Labour MPs I have heard so far opposing their own government, including on R4 Today this morning have had nothing to say, and weren't asked, about their plans for funding their costly thoughts. Are they under the illusion this is someone else's problem?
They openly boast that they didn't enter politics to take difficult decisions.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
A conundrum for Kemi. Should she agree to *not* cutting benefits? Bear trap alert sounded.
Just say the bill is a mess and therefore cannot be supported. Like all oppositions do on almost everything. Or very publically offer Keir support if he is prepared to do x, y or z in the bill and make him crawl One or the other
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Um, it's growth statistics. Growth from 10 to 30 is an increase of 200%, but growth from 1,000,000 to 1,100,000 is an increase of 10%. You need to know the absolute change as well as the relative change.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
You cant help the disabled into work until you create the work to help them into and the conditions within workplaces to allow them to work. It was always about money, not helping the disabled
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
May I drive you all even madder? A list of PIP awards by category and success. The notable one for me (and any long term PB contributor) is the 40% success rate for writer's cramp. More than whiplash.
Having been involved in applications for PIP, the applications process is rigorous and time-consuming (process state). But even hardened benefits people get caught out by some of the successful applications which you would consider a fail.
It's not the process, or the checks/balances all of which absorb a lot of costs. It's the legislation and the legislators who need to have a long, hard look at the current statutes which is what Labour are attempting to do here.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
Oh, it'd require a much smaller backpack than that: 45kg of HEU takes up about 2 liters of space. So, it would be a sphere with a radius of just 8 centimeters.
Uranium - like some posters - is dense. And in it's highly enriched form, it is extremely stable too - so you're going to struggle to pickup any kind of signature from it.
And this is why it's *really hard* to find Iran's HEU.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Wonder how many of these MPs voted for the provision in the AD Bill allowing lack of access to help and resources for disabled people to be a reason for them to be killed?
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
You cant help the disabled into work until you create the work to help them into and the conditions within workplaces to allow them to work. It was always about money, not helping the disabled
Rayner's policy of increased employment rights makes it less likely that people with disabilities will be employed.
Labour had how many years to think of some joined up policies ?
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Um, it's growth statistics. Growth from 10 to 30 is an increase of 200%, but growth from 1,000,000 to 1,100,000 is an increase of 10%. You need to know the absolute change as well as the relative change.
Yep, an increase in COVID-related conditions would be showing up in the young person stats now, and would materialise as a huge percentage increase. But in terms of spending, a 5% increase for 50-year olds is much more problematic.
And this isn't made up. The stats for school children were dreadful from COVID onwards. School absenteeism, which is a decent proxy for other issues, has doubled since the pandemic.
I'd try and get peace if I was Iran, certainly till I'd got that 400 kilos of uranium ready.
That's the thing, isn't it. The optimum path for Iran's leaders is to play dead, while continuing to try and enrich as much uranium as possible.
Also: it's about 45kg of 80+% Uranium per bomb. So they don't need to do the whole lot - just getting 90 or 100kg would give them 2+ bombs.
Which would just invite an even stronger Israeli attack.
To threaten Israel Iran would require enough weapons to:
1) Survive Israeli first strikes 2) Get through Israeli defences 3) Hit something valuable in Israel 4) Work
I think that Iran is looking to have a bomb (or three) so that they can promise that in the event of a any future attack, they would detonate a nuclear weapon in Israel. FWIW, I doubt they'd worry about a missile delivery system. Much easier to either smuggle a bomb into Israel or to blow up a boat off the coast of Tel Aviv.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
You cant help the disabled into work until you create the work to help them into and the conditions within workplaces to allow them to work. It was always about money, not helping the disabled
Rayner's policy of increased employment rights makes it less likely that people with disabilities will be employed.
Labour had how many years to think of some joined up policies ?
Who to believe ? It's not as though either are particularly reliable sources, and it sounds like motivated reasoning on both sides.
Competing claims now about the status of Iran’s HEU. Senator Markwayne Mullin, on the Armed Services Committee, says U.S. intel determined Iran hadn’t moved it from Fordow before the American strike; two Israeli officials told NYT they likely did. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1937398505611636908
The last official location of the HEU, according to the IAEA on June 13, was Isfahan not Fordo. The tunnels there are said to be both deeper and in harder rock than Fordo. There's also a decent chance the HEU was moved anyway, as it was supposedly in easily transportable barrels.
What the US/Israel have done is target the known enrichment facilities, basically to stop or slow the final stages of enrichment, they have probably achieved their aims. It is a lot less likely that they have destroyed or secured the HEU itself, and Iran if it still posesses it will likely disperse it in many new sites.
The problem is that Iran no longer needs large scale enrichment facilities they can go slowly and still have enough weapons grade HEU quite soon for a handful of bombs. At which point external attemps at regime change are likely to cease, in the same way that nobody talks about toppling the North Korean regime since they developed the bomb.
It's not quite that easy: you can distribute a enrichment cascade, but it adds time and complexity to the process. And each cetrifuge only does a small amount of the enruchment, so getting 90kg or so of 80+% U235 is probably still a far amount of work.
But your fundamental point is, I think, sound. That is: getting the centrifuges and not the HEU just delays thing somewhat.
Hypothetically, what would prevent their secretly exchanging 200k of their enriched uranium with say 100k of weapons grade from Pakistan ?
They do, after all, share a border.
Plausibly deniable as having enriched it themselves.
Iran and Pakistan don't always get on that well. Iran is mostly Shi'a, Pakistan mostly Sunni. Pakistan had supported Iran after the Revolution and during the Iran-Iraq war. However, they supported different sides in the Afghan wars (Pakistan supported the Taliban, while Iran supported the Northern Alliance). But they have come more closely together in recent years.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Need to understand more about the data - there's the DLA-PIP transition, not sure whether that's age related*. You can still get DLA up to 16, then switch to PIP, but while that would explain a absolute large number of 'new' PIP claims in 16+, it wouldn't obviously explain a proportional increase in those claims (if that is what this is showing).
*If historic DLA recipients have been switched over in reverse age order then this could explain some of this. I don't really get the cliff-edge at 40-45 either; the cut off for keeping in DLA is older than that.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
The economics of Cameron's austerity was heavily flawed, in two ways. It was based on the assumption of multiplier effects of 0.5-0.9, when the evidence was and is that they are more like 1.5-2.0. Also they vastly overestimated the reaction of the bond markets to high public sector deficits - the markets tolerated much higher debt levels in many countries (Japan being the polar example), as long as those countries had and could borrow in their own currencies.
So we had the classic Keynesian paradox of thrift, and indeed Reeves is repeating the same mistakes - trying to close the deficit with growth-destroying measures that themselves strangle the economy, leading to higher debt levels and needing further growth-destroying measures going forward.
And neither government implemented the supply-side measures necessary to break us out of this doom loop - indeed both moved us the other way, as our continual slippage down international ease of doing business rankings shows.
That's why we've underperformed so chronically since 2008.
And this isn't made up. The stats for school children were dreadful from COVID onwards. School absenteeism, which is a decent proxy for other issues, has doubled since the pandemic.
Big fines for people taking their kids out for a cheeky holiday before July hols end to sort that issue out.
Off topic, my colleague reports Jamiroquai opened for Dua Lipa on Friday at Wembley; the kids around her apparently had no idea who he was
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
Wicked Starmer called out by the Mail for his pro-Iranian treason. Compare and contrast with Priti, Jimmy Cartlidge and Shappsy getting it right.
Starmer evil called out by the fragrant Nazanin Zahari Radcliffe for not condemning Trump's bombing of Iran.
Ie, Starmer so far spot on correct. Future remains unknown.
BTW the sense I get this morning is that Trump's dislikers (almost everyone including me) are unsure what to say and how to react to the 'ceasefire'. Don't plan to be pleased, and don't plan to be outraged.
Once again Trump has grabbed the agenda, this time by declaring peace and love and moving on.
If the Iranian regime agreed to such a humiliating ceasefire then they must be in an incredibly weak position. It makes no sense for Israel to stop now, when it has a chance to deliver a 'killing blow' & finish off the regime for good & permanently end the threat.
Now a very odd ceasefire period starts. Per President Trump, Israel now has 12 hours where it can strike Iran, but Iran cannot strike back.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
During lockdown, PIP assessments were done over the phone / internet.
The huge rise in SEND pupils (more than 50% of some classes in Wales are now SEND) will filter through.
Tiktok coaching?
Internet self-diagnosis leading to more people seeking real diagnosis?
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
It does look mad, although we'd need absolute numbers as well to show that. For example, I'd expect PIP claims from young women to be fairly low, so the huge % increase may be small numbers.
Nevertheless, from personal experience I'm broadly on the government's side on this, as I know of PIP claims and amounts that are pretty hard to justify. Anecdotal, I know.
Where young people are concerned it may be partly due to the parents' lack of ability to cope. Dealing with anyone with certain conditions is hard, and the parents' level of ability might make a big difference to the outcome for the child.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I've the kernel of a theory about the return of shy toryism next time - only this time around it will be Reform announcers who vote 'on the safe side' in the booth Of course we won't know until the next GE!
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
During lockdown, PIP assessments were done over the phone / internet.
The huge rise in SEND pupils (more than 50% of some classes in Wales are now SEND) will filter through.
Tiktok coaching?
Internet self-diagnosis leading to more people seeking real diagnosis?
Now you could just ask ChatGPT how to maximise your chances of success...
The "ceasefire agreement" (which Iran hasn't formally accepted), seems to give Israel an additional twelve hours of hostilities after Iran is expected to desist. Is that a correct reading ? https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937369989914272024
Looks like it's over anyway judging by X.
Who exactly is it, who is saying that "it's over" on X ?
It doesn't seem 'over' from the sources I'm looking at.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in an assessment says that "in light of the grave violation of the ceasefire by the Iranian regime, we will strike with force.”
If the Iranian regime agreed to such a humiliating ceasefire then they must be in an incredibly weak position. It makes no sense for Israel to stop now, when it has a chance to deliver a 'killing blow' & finish off the regime for good & permanently end the threat.
Now a very odd ceasefire period starts. Per President Trump, Israel now has 12 hours where it can strike Iran, but Iran cannot strike back.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Your comment reminds me of a very positive story. A man known to me, an ex-seaman, found life ashore too much to cope with and became alcoholic. He struggled with that life for years. Then, through some cause unknown to me, he lost a leg. When he recovered from that, he was his own person again. It seemed to me that he'd been unable to cope with the 'easy life' ashore and the increased physical challenge of simply living had sorted him out. Whatever the reason it was good to see.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
I think you have a point (last para) but my experience is that many people in the less desirable parts of town, but who work and keep their gardens tidy, are very resentful of those who play the system and, basically, stick two fingers up to those who "do the right thing." Therefore for the sake of social justice there has to be a rigorous approach to benefits. This point is all too often missed by the comfortably off in their comfortably off neighbourhoods who don't experience anti-social behaviour.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
The "ceasefire agreement" (which Iran hasn't formally accepted), seems to give Israel an additional twelve hours of hostilities after Iran is expected to desist. Is that a correct reading ? https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937369989914272024
Looks like it's over anyway judging by X.
Who exactly is it, who is saying that "it's over" on X ?
It doesn't seem 'over' from the sources I'm looking at.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in an assessment says that "in light of the grave violation of the ceasefire by the Iranian regime, we will strike with force.”
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
Does your family know about the increasingly left wing economic policies of Reform? 😏 Or is just about the furriners? 🧐
If the Iranian regime agreed to such a humiliating ceasefire then they must be in an incredibly weak position. It makes no sense for Israel to stop now, when it has a chance to deliver a 'killing blow' & finish off the regime for good & permanently end the threat.
Now a very odd ceasefire period starts. Per President Trump, Israel now has 12 hours where it can strike Iran, but Iran cannot strike back.
Have you not noticed the air superiority and constant degradation of missile launchers over the past couple of weeks.
Iran('s leadership, or what's left of it) is facing an extinction level event so they are likely going to agree to anything/everything.
Yeah, but if they actually agreed to just sit & be punched in the face for 12 hours, then things must be really bad. So bad that's there could genuinely be chance for Israel to finish off the Iranian regime, instead of giving them a chance to regroup & restart their nuclear weapons program.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I've the kernel of a theory about the return of shy toryism next time - only this time around it will be Reform announcers who vote 'on the safe side' in the booth Of course we won't know until the next GE!
I think that's true. But how big will be the effect? If there's only a handful, Reform lead the government, if it's massive the Conservatives have a chance. Somewhere in between and Labour benefit. My thesis is it will be small but significant - almost exactly the right amount to most benefit Labour.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
You cant help the disabled into work until you create the work to help them into and the conditions within workplaces to allow them to work. It was always about money, not helping the disabled
Rayner's policy of increased employment rights makes it less likely that people with disabilities will be employed.
Labour had how many years to think of some joined up policies ?
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I've the kernel of a theory about the return of shy toryism next time - only this time around it will be Reform announcers who vote 'on the safe side' in the booth Of course we won't know until the next GE!
This is why the Tories absolutely need to appoint a leadership team who look competent, experienced and credible as an alternative Government. Kemi's critical weakness is that she just does not strike enough people as a PM-in-waiting. But neither does Farage and his grisly crew. There's not a lot to choose from on the Tory benches but a Cleverly/Hunt combo (if the latter could be persuaded) seems the best choice.
Labour and Reform will be very happy with where the Tories are currently. Therefore they should do something which their opponents are not so happy about. Simples.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I've the kernel of a theory about the return of shy toryism next time - only this time around it will be Reform announcers who vote 'on the safe side' in the booth Of course we won't know until the next GE!
I think that's true. But how big will be the effect? If there's only a handful, Reform lead the government, if it's massive the Conservatives have a chance. Somewhere in between and Labour benefit. My thesis is it will be small but significant - almost exactly the right amount to most benefit Labour.
Indeed! I mean a lot also depends on the underlying VI twixt now and then. A Tory recovery into the mid 20s makes this much more powerful than going in on high teens
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
Does your family know about the increasingly left wing economic policies of Reform? 😏 Or is just about the furriners? 🧐
They’re Cornish. Of course it’s the Foreign. They’d vote to expel Devonians if they could
Only joking
Actually one of the main drivers was real passionate anger about subjects we are not allowed to discuss. This surprised me. Never been mentioned before
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
You cant help the disabled into work until you create the work to help them into and the conditions within workplaces to allow them to work. It was always about money, not helping the disabled
Rayner's policy of increased employment rights makes it less likely that people with disabilities will be employed.
Labour had how many years to think of some joined up policies ?
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Totally disagree. I hear this all 'leniency costs less' argument the time. It is usually from people who have never managed or led large teams.
If you don't have discipline, and rules enforced, society wise - far too many will start to swing the lead.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
I think you have a point (last para) but my experience is that many people in the less desirable parts of town, but who work and keep their gardens tidy, are very resentful of those who play the system and, basically, stick two fingers up to those who "do the right thing." Therefore for the sake of social justice there has to be a rigorous approach to benefits. This point is all too often missed by the comfortably off in their comfortably off neighbourhoods who don't experience anti-social behaviour.
It seems impossible to achieve this without a return to distinguishing between the deserving and the undeserving poor. The entire post WWII welfare state is predicated on not making that distinction, an the basis that a welfare tide raises the moral level of all boats. Which is not true.
I wonder if there is any data at all on the % of welfare payments that are spend on drugs, pubs, bookies, fags etc.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
During lockdown, PIP assessments were done over the phone / internet.
The huge rise in SEND pupils (more than 50% of some classes in Wales are now SEND) will filter through.
Tiktok coaching?
Internet self-diagnosis leading to more people seeking real diagnosis?
Now you could just ask ChatGPT how to maximise your chances of success...
I imagine people us it to gain access to prescription drugs: what symptoms do I need to have to ensure that I get prescribed [x].
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
Tories have just briefed that they are considering 'helping' the govt on the welfare bill. Looks like they are hoping to force a split in Labour.
I was just wondering whether they had the numbers to outweigh Labour rebels.
Yes. Labour rebels plus LDs, Green, PC and SNP is 183, the Tories abstaining might make it interesting as I think you can probably add another 20 or 30 to the rebels- then we are down to the indies, NI etc. If Tories vote in favour it passes but Labour probably implode somewhat with threats of deselection etc.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Totally disagree. I hear this all 'leniency costs less' argument the time. It is usually from people who have never managed or led large teams.
If you don't have discipline, and rules enforced, society wise - far too many will start to swing the lead.
The UK system is pretty unusual though: in most countries there's very generous support for the first year or so, and then support tapers off sharply. The idea being that you support people who've lost their job while they are searching, but they are very much under the gun to get a new job, because benefits then fall off a cliff.
By contrast, we have long term unemployment and disability benefits that just run and run.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
My Cornish family is affluent but not massively “posh”. They would have been mostly Blair in 1997, is my guess
Now overtly Reform. They all said “what choice do we have left, we’ve tried everything else”. Remember Cornwall voted reform big time at the Locals so they’re only reflecting a prevailing mood down here
Yes there’s definitely a sense of a taboo totally broken
Interestingly a couple expressed dislike or mistrust of Farage. So they’re voting Reform DESPITE Farage
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
I think you have a point (last para) but my experience is that many people in the less desirable parts of town, but who work and keep their gardens tidy, are very resentful of those who play the system and, basically, stick two fingers up to those who "do the right thing." Therefore for the sake of social justice there has to be a rigorous approach to benefits. This point is all too often missed by the comfortably off in their comfortably off neighbourhoods who don't experience anti-social behaviour.
It seems impossible to achieve this without a return to distinguishing between the deserving and the undeserving poor. The entire post WWII welfare state is predicated on not making that distinction, an the basis that a welfare tide raises the moral level of all boats. Which is not true.
I wonder if there is any data at all on the % of welfare payments that are spend on drugs, pubs, bookies, fags etc.
Deserving and undeserving are entirely subjective terms, but in any case pretty much all governments of the last 40 years have at the very least been noisy about distinguishing between the two. In fact it’s quite difficult to distinguish between the grandstanding rsoles.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
The more stigma there is against claiming benefits, the more generous they can afford to be. Encouraging everyone to claim the maximum they are entitled to has made the overall system worse.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Totally disagree. I hear this all 'leniency costs less' argument the time. It is usually from people who have never managed or led large teams.
If you don't have discipline, and rules enforced, society wise - far too many will start to swing the lead.
OK, lets play the scenario.
Disabled person with uncureable chronic condition is awarded welfare support for life. I've already given you a few examples.
Latest Tory twat comes along and demands discipline and rules. We have to weed out all these people swinging the lead. Of course we can't actually do this ourselves because state action is communism, so lets award a £405m contract to Capita who hire people with no medical understanding to conduct interviews off a script.
Because claimants are all scroungers lets book venues which are deliberately inaccessible. Two floors up and the lift isn't working. And then we ask the person awarded the payment for life if their leg has grown back.
I don't want leniency, I wan't compassion. And I want value for money. Humiliating people when they can't get better is a waste of your money as much as it is mine. The only purpose is performative twattery to ensure the votes of people whose newspapers have told them that all claimaints are scroungers to encourage their loyalty to vote Conservative.
Except of course they're increasingly dead now, and the new generation are voting Reform. So that worked...
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
Yeah, right. Sorry for being cynical, but the idea of the LibDems enacting anything "courageous" while in Govt is for the birds. 2015 did for that.
I may change my mind when I see the 2024 cohort of MPs out in the rural byways demonstrating for more new housing developments around the villages in their constituencies.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Totally disagree. I hear this all 'leniency costs less' argument the time. It is usually from people who have never managed or led large teams.
If you don't have discipline, and rules enforced, society wise - far too many will start to swing the lead.
The UK system is pretty unusual though: in most countries there's very generous support for the first year or so, and then support tapers off sharply. The idea being that you support people who've lost their job while they are searching, but they are very much under the gun to get a new job, because benefits then fall off a cliff.
By contrast, we have long term unemployment and disability benefits that just run and run.
As do France, Germany, Australia, Ireland, NZ and the Nordic nations.
Contributions based JSA is time limited then you move onto UC
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
If the Iranian regime agreed to such a humiliating ceasefire then they must be in an incredibly weak position. It makes no sense for Israel to stop now, when it has a chance to deliver a 'killing blow' & finish off the regime for good & permanently end the threat.
Now a very odd ceasefire period starts. Per President Trump, Israel now has 12 hours where it can strike Iran, but Iran cannot strike back.
Have you not noticed the air superiority and constant degradation of missile launchers over the past couple of weeks.
Iran('s leadership, or what's left of it) is facing an extinction level event so they are likely going to agree to anything/everything.
Yeah, but if they actually agreed to just sit & be punched in the face for 12 hours, then things must be really bad. So bad that's there could genuinely be chance for Israel to finish off the Iranian regime, instead of giving them a chance to regroup & restart their nuclear weapons program.
Bibi is getting a thwumping on X because he agreed to the DJT ceasefire.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
And the response would be 'because they're able to'....
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
Anecdotage is both critical and pointless. Critical in that you can sniff out trends before they appear in the numbers, and pointless that "well I don't know anyone who disagrees with me" doesn't trump reality contained in the numbers.
I love this type of person who gets het up about EVs. They don't want one, don't know anyone who wants one, and nobody is buying one. Then you point to sales going up and up and up and they move onto the next trope.
At the same time I have little doubt that large numbers of voters are hacked off with the political duopoly and want something different. But that is because its reflected in the numbers, not because of anecdotage. My circle of friends and acquaintances are not voting Farage in any circumstances, but that doesn't somehow negate the statistics showing that we are in the minority.
If the Tories ended up with 31 seats they would be in so much shell shock the last thing they would be thinking of would be government. Presumably they wouldn't even have any parliamentary structure or leadership left. It would take weeks or months to sort themselves out
Farage still couldn't form a government until the Tories had agreed to give him confidence and supply on today's Yougov (and 31 MPs is still more than the LDs had from 2015-2024 and they had a leadership and spokesman posts still)
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
It could be because of the quality of the management.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
To me the interesting thing is the possible shy Reform effect.
In polite society and professional contexts, admitting to liking or supporting Farage and Reform would not go down particularly well. But yet there’s plenty of people I know in private contexts, if you steer the topic to politics, who feel to me remarkably fed up, and I would not always put it past some of them to actually go Reform in the privacy of the voting booth.
Some of these people will still feel unable to take the full leap, and will probably end up Tory, I would say, but that’s just a guess. Some will however go the whole way.
It is a very odd phenomenon, borne out by this societal shift that seems to have grown out of the culture war and the rise of right wing populism.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
And the response would be 'because they're able to'....
How are they more able to than previously? There was the shift to telephone assessments during COVID, that Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters mention, but the system has been tightened since, hasn't it?
Given the mixed messages out of Iran overnight re cessefire, its not entirely impossible a coup is occuring or that Khomeini is dead
My guess is that any coup would be precipitated by protests on the streets of Tehran and other major cities. I just don't see the alternative power center in Iran for an insider coup.
Israel wants the Shah to be it
I don't think there's any evidence that he's particularly popular in Iran. Remember, the urbal liberals want something like a Western democracy, while the rura zeolots want a theocracy. The market for an incompetent despot* is a small one.
* Mind you, I'd have thought that about the US too
Plenty of western democracies have constitutional monarchies, the Shah would simply replace the Supreme Leader as head of state, he would not be head of government
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
The more stigma there is against claiming benefits, the more generous they can afford to be. Encouraging everyone to claim the maximum they are entitled to has made the overall system worse.
I don't like the word "stigma". If you are permanently disabled why should you be stigmatised?
At the same time I have these radical ideas about making work pay. That can't be done by slashing "benefits" as we have millions of working poor. Nor can it be done by setting a minimum wage which bankrupts companies.
We need to go after the cost of living. Housing & Energy are the big two. And neither party seem interested in anything other than fiddling around the edges.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
You cant help the disabled into work until you create the work to help them into and the conditions within workplaces to allow them to work. It was always about money, not helping the disabled
Rayner's policy of increased employment rights makes it less likely that people with disabilities will be employed.
Labour had how many years to think of some joined up policies ?
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
Yeah, right. Sorry for being cynical, but the idea of the LibDems enacting anything "courageous" while in Govt is for the birds. 2015 did for that.
I may change my mind when I see the 2024 cohort of MPs out in the rural byways demonstrating for more new housing developments around the villages in their constituencies.
The tuition fees thing was courageous (in the Yes Minister sense ).
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
To me the interesting thing is the possible shy Reform effect.
In polite society and professional contexts, admitting to liking or supporting Farage and Reform would not go down particularly well. But yet there’s plenty of people I know in private contexts, if you steer the topic to politics, who feel to me remarkably fed up, and I would not always put it past some of them to actually go Reform in the privacy of the voting booth.
Some of these people will still feel unable to take the full leap, and will probably end up Tory, I would say, but that’s just a guess. Some will however go the whole way.
It is a very odd phenomenon, borne out by this societal shift that seems to have grown out of the culture war and the rise of right wing populism.
Reform have a problem - so many of them are demonstrable nutters who put off the mainstream non-nutter voters.
Its a pity, because I am sympathetic to what they are trying to do even if the way they are doing it is mad / bad / dangerous. I want reform, but not Reform.
Comments
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Mind you, Pakistan has nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize. And I think Trump is sufficiently narcissistic that he would be happy for Iran to get a nuclear bomb, so long as he got the prize.
Is that a correct reading ?
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937369989914272024
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ?
Why is it disproportionately affecting women ?
Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/25-litre-backpack/s?k=25+litre+backpack
Nevertheless, from personal experience I'm broadly on the government's side on this, as I know of PIP claims and amounts that are pretty hard to justify. Anecdotal, I know.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
To threaten Israel Iran would require enough weapons to:
1) Survive Israeli first strikes
2) Get through Israeli defences
3) Hit something valuable in Israel
4) Work
Which were themselves encouraged by lockdown.
It's possible to construct a logical argument that my life is more difficult than a normal person's as a result of being autistic (and therefore would qualify), but I took (and take) the view that it wasn't so much more difficult that I wanted to go through the process of persuading someone that I was mentally disabled and incapable enough to require financial assistance from the state. There has to be a threshold somewhere, and it surely shouldn't be so low that I would qualify.
It might be that the large percentage increases (most likely from a low base) are due to people being encouraged to claim in similar circumstances, with improved diagnosis of young women with high-functioning autism or other conditions that are moderately debilitating.
FWIW, my wife also never made a claim, despite her condition (hypermobile EDS) preventing her from working, because we've been able to live off my income, and making a claim felt like it would take more effort than she had, which she'd rather use for something more enjoyable.
The system seems to be simultaneously too difficult for many genuinely needy to claim, and yet paying out to a credulity-straining number of people.
Or very publically offer Keir support if he is prepared to do x, y or z in the bill and make him crawl
One or the other
It was always about money, not helping the disabled
https://www.benefitsandwork.co.uk/personal-independence-payment-pip/success-rates
Having been involved in applications for PIP, the applications process is rigorous and time-consuming (process state). But even hardened benefits people get caught out by some of the successful applications which you would consider a fail.
It's not the process, or the checks/balances all of which absorb a lot of costs. It's the legislation and the legislators who need to have a long, hard look at the current statutes which is what Labour are attempting to do here.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
Uranium - like some posters - is dense. And in it's highly enriched form, it is extremely stable too - so you're going to struggle to pickup any kind of signature from it.
And this is why it's *really hard* to find Iran's HEU.
Labour had how many years to think of some joined up policies ?
But didn't.
Starmer evil called out by the fragrant Nazanin Zahari Radcliffe for not condemning Trump's bombing of Iran.
And this isn't made up. The stats for school children were dreadful from COVID onwards. School absenteeism, which is a decent proxy for other issues, has doubled since the pandemic.
*If historic DLA recipients have been switched over in reverse age order then this could explain some of this. I don't really get the cliff-edge at 40-45 either; the cut off for keeping in DLA is older than that.
So we had the classic Keynesian paradox of thrift, and indeed Reeves is repeating the same mistakes - trying to close the deficit with growth-destroying measures that themselves strangle the economy, leading to higher debt levels and needing further growth-destroying measures going forward.
And neither government implemented the supply-side measures necessary to break us out of this doom loop - indeed both moved us the other way, as our continual slippage down international ease of doing business rankings shows.
That's why we've underperformed so chronically since 2008.
Off topic, my colleague reports Jamiroquai opened for Dua Lipa on Friday at Wembley; the kids around her apparently had no idea who he was
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
BTW the sense I get this morning is that Trump's dislikers (almost everyone including me) are unsure what to say and how to react to the 'ceasefire'. Don't plan to be pleased, and don't plan to be outraged.
Once again Trump has grabbed the agenda, this time by declaring peace and love and moving on.
Wait and see required.
Now a very odd ceasefire period starts. Per President Trump, Israel now has 12 hours where it can strike Iran, but Iran cannot strike back.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937369332004139440
The huge rise in SEND pupils (more than 50% of some classes in Wales are now SEND) will filter through.
Tiktok coaching?
Internet self-diagnosis leading to more people seeking real diagnosis?
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Of course we won't know until the next GE!
It doesn't seem 'over' from the sources I'm looking at.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in an assessment says that "in light of the grave violation of the ceasefire by the Iranian regime, we will strike with force.”
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1937425724597469442
Iran('s leadership, or what's left of it) is facing an extinction level event so they are likely going to agree to anything/everything.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/crrzveqqdv1t
Labour and Reform will be very happy with where the Tories are currently. Therefore they should do something which their opponents are not so happy about. Simples.
Only joking
Actually one of the main drivers was real passionate anger about subjects we are not allowed to discuss. This surprised me. Never been mentioned before
It’s cut through
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
If you don't have discipline, and rules enforced, society wise - far too many will start to swing the lead.
I wonder if there is any data at all on the % of welfare payments that are spend on drugs, pubs, bookies, fags etc.
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
If Tories vote in favour it passes but Labour probably implode somewhat with threats of deselection etc.
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
By contrast, we have long term unemployment and disability benefits that just run and run.
Now overtly Reform. They all said “what choice do we have left, we’ve tried everything else”. Remember Cornwall voted reform big time at the Locals so they’re only reflecting a prevailing mood down here
Yes there’s definitely a sense of a taboo totally broken
Interestingly a couple expressed dislike or mistrust of Farage. So they’re voting Reform DESPITE Farage
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
Disabled person with uncureable chronic condition is awarded welfare support for life. I've already given you a few examples.
Latest Tory twat comes along and demands discipline and rules. We have to weed out all these people swinging the lead. Of course we can't actually do this ourselves because state action is communism, so lets award a £405m contract to Capita who hire people with no medical understanding to conduct interviews off a script.
Because claimants are all scroungers lets book venues which are deliberately inaccessible. Two floors up and the lift isn't working. And then we ask the person awarded the payment for life if their leg has grown back.
I don't want leniency, I wan't compassion. And I want value for money. Humiliating people when they can't get better is a waste of your money as much as it is mine. The only purpose is performative twattery to ensure the votes of people whose newspapers have told them that all claimaints are scroungers to encourage their loyalty to vote Conservative.
Except of course they're increasingly dead now, and the new generation are voting Reform. So that worked...
I may change my mind when I see the 2024 cohort of MPs out in the rural byways demonstrating for more new housing developments around the villages in their constituencies.
Contributions based JSA is time limited then you move onto UC
I love this type of person who gets het up about EVs. They don't want one, don't know anyone who wants one, and nobody is buying one. Then you point to sales going up and up and up and they move onto the next trope.
At the same time I have little doubt that large numbers of voters are hacked off with the political duopoly and want something different. But that is because its reflected in the numbers, not because of anecdotage. My circle of friends and acquaintances are not voting Farage in any circumstances, but that doesn't somehow negate the statistics showing that we are in the minority.
In polite society and professional contexts, admitting to liking or supporting Farage and Reform would not go down particularly well. But yet there’s plenty of people I know in private contexts, if you steer the topic to politics, who feel to me remarkably fed up, and I would not always put it past some of them to actually go Reform in the privacy of the voting booth.
Some of these people will still feel unable to take the full leap, and will probably end up Tory, I would say, but that’s just a guess. Some will however go the whole way.
It is a very odd phenomenon, borne out by this societal shift that seems to have grown out of the culture war and the rise of right wing populism.
https://x.com/novaramedia/status/1937192984988004483
At the same time I have these radical ideas about making work pay. That can't be done by slashing "benefits" as we have millions of working poor. Nor can it be done by setting a minimum wage which bankrupts companies.
We need to go after the cost of living. Housing & Energy are the big two. And neither party seem interested in anything other than fiddling around the edges.
Its a pity, because I am sympathetic to what they are trying to do even if the way they are doing it is mad / bad / dangerous. I want reform, but not Reform.