I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
You cant help the disabled into work until you create the work to help them into and the conditions within workplaces to allow them to work. It was always about money, not helping the disabled
Rayner's policy of increased employment rights makes it less likely that people with disabilities will be employed.
Labour had how many years to think of some joined up policies ?
But didn't.
Quite. They arent fit to govern
They should be eligible for a PIP claim then.
Nope, PIP is not an out of work, nor an out on your ear benefit
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
Yeah, right. Sorry for being cynical, but the idea of the LibDems enacting anything "courageous" while in Govt is for the birds. 2015 did for that.
I may change my mind when I see the 2024 cohort of MPs out in the rural byways demonstrating for more new housing developments around the villages in their constituencies.
The tuition fees thing was courageous (in the Yes Minister sense ).
Given the mixed messages out of Iran overnight re cessefire, its not entirely impossible a coup is occuring or that Khomeini is dead
My guess is that any coup would be precipitated by protests on the streets of Tehran and other major cities. I just don't see the alternative power center in Iran for an insider coup.
Israel wants the Shah to be it
I don't think there's any evidence that he's particularly popular in Iran. Remember, the urbal liberals want something like a Western democracy, while the rura zeolots want a theocracy. The market for an incompetent despot* is a small one.
* Mind you, I'd have thought that about the US too
Plenty of western democracies have constitutional monarchies, the Shah would simply replace the Supreme Leader as head of state, he would not be head of government
The son of the last Shah sounds interested. And he certainly looks like his dad.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Except it is not pennies.
It is thousands of pounds of "free" money that people feel entitled to.
But it is not free.
A starter for 10. Assume that people who neither need nor deserve cash getting it lowers the amount of cash available for those who do need it, and do deserve it.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
There are many people among my acquaintance who are on PIP. It doesn't seem to me that more than a couple of them are playing the system, whilst it does seem to me that more young people are genuinely less healthy than longer ago.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
We need a timescale of changes (ie a set of annual curves).
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat.
Yes some people need help. No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
Given the mixed messages out of Iran overnight re cessefire, its not entirely impossible a coup is occuring or that Khomeini is dead
My guess is that any coup would be precipitated by protests on the streets of Tehran and other major cities. I just don't see the alternative power center in Iran for an insider coup.
Israel wants the Shah to be it
I don't think there's any evidence that he's particularly popular in Iran. Remember, the urbal liberals want something like a Western democracy, while the rura zeolots want a theocracy. The market for an incompetent despot* is a small one.
* Mind you, I'd have thought that about the US too
Plenty of western democracies have constitutional monarchies, the Shah would simply replace the Supreme Leader as head of state, he would not be head of government
The son of the last Shah sounds interested. And he certainly looks like his dad.
So someone phones him up and says "Would you like to be head of an oil rich country where you can live a life of luxury. All you need to do, is agree to what we say you need to do".
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
We need a timescale of changes (ie a set of annual curves).
I could not find one.
Yep, the baseline is needed to have any hope of interpreting correctly. As are the absolute values as noted upthread.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
There are many people among my acquaintance who are on PIP. It doesn't seem to me that more than a couple of them are playing the system, whilst it does seem to me that more young people are genuinely less healthy than longer ago.
And also find it harder to access treatment. My husband has had to wait 8 months just to get a scan for his chronic sinusitis. It takes a minimum of 3 months where we are to start NHS talking therapy.
Who to believe ? It's not as though either are particularly reliable sources, and it sounds like motivated reasoning on both sides.
Competing claims now about the status of Iran’s HEU. Senator Markwayne Mullin, on the Armed Services Committee, says U.S. intel determined Iran hadn’t moved it from Fordow before the American strike; two Israeli officials told NYT they likely did. https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1937398505611636908
The last official location of the HEU, according to the IAEA on June 13, was Isfahan not Fordo. The tunnels there are said to be both deeper and in harder rock than Fordo. There's also a decent chance the HEU was moved anyway, as it was supposedly in easily transportable barrels.
What the US/Israel have done is target the known enrichment facilities, basically to stop or slow the final stages of enrichment, they have probably achieved their aims. It is a lot less likely that they have destroyed or secured the HEU itself, and Iran if it still posesses it will likely disperse it in many new sites.
The problem is that Iran no longer needs large scale enrichment facilities they can go slowly and still have enough weapons grade HEU quite soon for a handful of bombs. At which point external attemps at regime change are likely to cease, in the same way that nobody talks about toppling the North Korean regime since they developed the bomb.
If they are vaguely sane, the barrels are actually “bird cages” - 60% uranium can easily form a critical mass.
Quite often, these are an oil drum sized barrel, with a space frame cage inside, holding a small container in the middle, well away from the walls of the barrel.
The container holds the nuclear material. Often has neutron absorption built in to make it safer.
The name “bird cage” comes from the frame.
The idea is that the space frame inside the barrel keeps the nuclear material x cm away from anything else. So if you stack the drums etc no risk of criticality by accident.
As to further enrichment - they still need a full cascade for this. It’s easier than before, but still requires industrial scale facilities.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
To me the interesting thing is the possible shy Reform effect.
In polite society and professional contexts, admitting to liking or supporting Farage and Reform would not go down particularly well. But yet there’s plenty of people I know in private contexts, if you steer the topic to politics, who feel to me remarkably fed up, and I would not always put it past some of them to actually go Reform in the privacy of the voting booth.
Some of these people will still feel unable to take the full leap, and will probably end up Tory, I would say, but that’s just a guess. Some will however go the whole way.
It is a very odd phenomenon, borne out by this societal shift that seems to have grown out of the culture war and the rise of right wing populism.
Reform have a problem - so many of them are demonstrable nutters who put off the mainstream non-nutter voters.
Its a pity, because I am sympathetic to what they are trying to do even if the way they are doing it is mad / bad / dangerous. I want reform, but not Reform.
Your final sentence sums up exactly where I am. I want the country to tackle some of these deep seated issues that are eating away at people’s quality of life and hopes for the future, but Farage is offering snake oil.
A short segment from Rory the ex-Tory on all the points in his career when Netanyahu has demanded that Iran be attacked or regime change be imposed because they are about to develop nuclear weapons.
A short segment from Rory the ex-Tory on all the points in his career when Netanyahu has demanded that Iran be attacked or regime change be imposed because they are about to develop nuclear weapons.
Its funny how you can breathlessly alternate between saying that the attack was too late as Iran already have the HEU which they'll still have now even after the attack, and that its the boy who cried wolf.
The wolf was always there. It would have been better for these attacks to happen BEFORE they had the HEU, rather than afterwards.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
My Cornish family is affluent but not massively “posh”. They would have been mostly Blair in 1997, is my guess
Now overtly Reform. They all said “what choice do we have left, we’ve tried everything else”. Remember Cornwall voted reform big time at the Locals so they’re only reflecting a prevailing mood down here
Yes there’s definitely a sense of a taboo totally broken
Interestingly a couple expressed dislike or mistrust of Farage. So they’re voting Reform DESPITE Farage
As I mentioned, most people I befriended through the Conservative Party, are either members or supporters of Reform.
And, the Ipsos numbers are staggering. 51% of working class voters, and 42% of voters aged over 50 now support Reform. So anecdata and data are matching up.
The likelihood is, even at a typical university, you could get 10-15% supporting Reform.
Given the mixed messages out of Iran overnight re cessefire, its not entirely impossible a coup is occuring or that Khomeini is dead
My guess is that any coup would be precipitated by protests on the streets of Tehran and other major cities. I just don't see the alternative power center in Iran for an insider coup.
Israel wants the Shah to be it
I don't think there's any evidence that he's particularly popular in Iran. Remember, the urbal liberals want something like a Western democracy, while the rura zeolots want a theocracy. The market for an incompetent despot* is a small one.
* Mind you, I'd have thought that about the US too
Plenty of western democracies have constitutional monarchies, the Shah would simply replace the Supreme Leader as head of state, he would not be head of government
The son of the last Shah sounds interested. And he certainly looks like his dad.
So someone phones him up and says "Would you like to be head of an oil rich country where you can live a life of luxury. All you need to do, is agree to what we say you need to do".
"Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat."
Applies to Shahs too. Riches for life for being a poodle. Same as the last Shah.
As it happens I don't think the last Shah was a poodle. He was wilful and moved too far too fast.
I don't think a constitutional monarchy would be a bad idea for Iran. Especially if it meant the armed forces having a primary loyalty to a stability-seeking monarch instead of a politician.
But, in practice, unlikely to happen. There was a lot of talk after the collapse of the Soviet Union of monarchies being restored in Eastern Europe, especially Romania and Bulgaria where they still had living ex-kings. Never happened though.
Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat.
Yes some people need help. No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
I've been through the PIP application with a relative and the idea that it is easy is just laughable. It's extremely complicated with numerous stages and hoops to jump through. Also my relative's PIP application is to help them carry on working which is a point that people attacking PIP forget. It's not an incapacity benefit, it's there to allow people to live a normal life without being completely dependent on the state.
Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
People are economically rational. Who'd have thunk it.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
There are many people among my acquaintance who are on PIP. It doesn't seem to me that more than a couple of them are playing the system, whilst it does seem to me that more young people are genuinely less healthy than longer ago.
Indeed. And some of that is lifestyle stuff, and some of it is because a lot of people are waiting so long for medical treatment.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat.
Yes some people need help. No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
I've been through the PIP application with a relative and the idea that it is easy is just laughable. It's extremely complicated with numerous stages and hoops to jump through. Also my relative's PIP application is to help them carry on working which is a point that people attacking PIP forget. It's not an incapacity benefit, it's there to allow people to live a normal life without being completely dependent on the state.
Its complicated, especially for those who do need it.
But for those who don't need it, it can be easy relative to going to work for the same amount of money.
Especially since if you successfully get it, you can get it on top of your wages.
Yes its to help those who need it, but the problem is that those who don't need it getting it mean that there's less money for those who genuinely do need it. Not sure why so many fail to grasp this key point.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
The most powerful words in the English language are "It's not your fault. It's all the fault of [x]".
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
May I drive you all even madder? A list of PIP awards by category and success. The notable one for me (and any long term PB contributor) is the 40% success rate for writer's cramp. More than whiplash.
Having been involved in applications for PIP, the applications process is rigorous and time-consuming (process state). But even hardened benefits people get caught out by some of the successful applications which you would consider a fail.
It's not the process, or the checks/balances all of which absorb a lot of costs. It's the legislation and the legislators who need to have a long, hard look at the current statutes which is what Labour are attempting to do here.
I need numbers of cases.
Perhaps 40% for writers cramp means there are only 5 cases, or that the people got it filling in a form to apply for PIP?
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I'm fascinated by this sort of anecdata. Because in the circles I move in - which aren't exclusively middle class suburban: I know Wythenshavians and rural Cestrians too - I still know no out-and-proud Reform voters IRL. I don't doubt that they exist - but it's amazing how easy it is to go through life without encountering them. A less interested individual than me in my position would still assume that actually they're a fringe movement.
That said, the overton window has shifted in the last few years: the acceptability of expressing reform-adjacent opinions, even among very Guardiany middle class types, has definitely increased.
To me the interesting thing is the possible shy Reform effect.
In polite society and professional contexts, admitting to liking or supporting Farage and Reform would not go down particularly well. But yet there’s plenty of people I know in private contexts, if you steer the topic to politics, who feel to me remarkably fed up, and I would not always put it past some of them to actually go Reform in the privacy of the voting booth.
Some of these people will still feel unable to take the full leap, and will probably end up Tory, I would say, but that’s just a guess. Some will however go the whole way.
It is a very odd phenomenon, borne out by this societal shift that seems to have grown out of the culture war and the rise of right wing populism.
Reform have a problem - so many of them are demonstrable nutters who put off the mainstream non-nutter voters.
Its a pity, because I am sympathetic to what they are trying to do even if the way they are doing it is mad / bad / dangerous. I want reform, but not Reform.
Good morning
We are on an away with TFW to Barmouth for lunch then back for early evening
I simply have to agree completely and none of the parties are remotely addressing thr economic car crash on its way
Means testing the NHS and Pensions together with an increase in retirement age is inevitable
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I think that repeated scandals, and cover-ups of scandals, on the part of people in authority, have created very fertile ground for Reform.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
I love the idea it’s a ‘due pension’ when it clearly isn’t, and that’s not even what the £10 Billion is for, and they’ve also lost every court case over it.
Legislation changed the state pension age for women in 1995.
The movement split between the back to 60 lot and those just after a shakedown of cash.
What the latterare after is compo for a failure of admin, a 30 month or so delay in sending a letter. The former some CEDAW stuff which may or may not happen.
My state pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. I don’t feel entitled to anything as I bothered to keep myself informed.
Your final sentence sums up exactly where I am. I want the country to tackle some of these deep seated issues that are eating away at people’s quality of life and hopes for the future, but Farage is offering snake oil.
Snake oil flies off the shelves these days.
Around the time of the brexit nakba I remember some rat-faced fucking nobody from a shit hole like Sheffield saying that he was voting leave because 'it couldn't make things any worse'. I do hope he enjoyed the Boriswave.
Farage is it the artiste non pareil at harnessing that stripe of brainless reflex.
Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
People are economically rational. Who'd have thunk it.
It’s not that they’re rational - it’s that these people were so degraded and retarded they couldn’t work out that drinking from an open sewer was bad, they couldn’t identify different animals (seen daily) by name, they were nearly all illiterate and shunned education, and some were so inarticulate the anthropologist first assumed many of them were mute (as well as filthy, inbred, and riddled with disease)
And yet they showed notable skill in extracting maximum welfare benefits
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
"Reform voters are almost doubly as pessimistic about the future of the country than Conservative voters, with 59 per cent feeling pessimistic about Britain’s future, compared to 33 per cent of Conservatives; 84 per centt of Reform voters feel angry about the state of the country, compared to 59 per cent of the Conservatives.
"For all of these issues, current Reform voters bear greater resemblance to current Green voters than to Conservatives. These voters have lost any faith in mainstream parties to deliver meaningful change that they can feel in their day-to-day lives, whereas those still sticking to the traditional two parties are more likely to feel better off and optimistic."
Yep, @leon and his family seem a weird admixture of Green and Purple, and feeling the pinch to boot.
Given the mixed messages out of Iran overnight re cessefire, its not entirely impossible a coup is occuring or that Khomeini is dead
My guess is that any coup would be precipitated by protests on the streets of Tehran and other major cities. I just don't see the alternative power center in Iran for an insider coup.
Israel wants the Shah to be it
I don't think there's any evidence that he's particularly popular in Iran. Remember, the urbal liberals want something like a Western democracy, while the rura zeolots want a theocracy. The market for an incompetent despot* is a small one.
* Mind you, I'd have thought that about the US too
Plenty of western democracies have constitutional monarchies, the Shah would simply replace the Supreme Leader as head of state, he would not be head of government
The son of the last Shah sounds interested. And he certainly looks like his dad.
So someone phones him up and says "Would you like to be head of an oil rich country where you can live a life of luxury. All you need to do, is agree to what we say you need to do".
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I think that repeated scandals, and cover-ups of scandals, on the part of people in authority, have created very fertile ground for Reform.
No scandals in Reform or their candidates and elected representatives of course
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I think that repeated scandals, and cover-ups of scandals, on the part of people in authority, have created very fertile ground for Reform.
Indeed. It would be hard, I think, to deliberately design a scandal worse than {thing we can’t discuss on PB} for this.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I think that repeated scandals, and cover-ups of scandals, on the part of people in authority, have created very fertile ground for Reform.
No scandals in Reform or their candidates and elected representatives of course
Since they aren't the people in charge, such things bother the voters much less.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat.
Yes some people need help. No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
But why is there more word of mouth than before?
I've not seen evidence that a high proportion of people getting PIP don't need help, aren't genuinely in need, and/or don't meet the existing strict rules.
Sat down with large extended family in Cornwall last night. All ages from a very noisy 6 month old to an almost as noisy 80 year old. Lots of people
My family tends right but there are always some lefties. AFAICS every adult is now solidly Reform, with maybe one Tory left. The holdout adult - nephew’s girlfriend, age 30 - has gone from firm Labour to helpless despair and probably abstain
I've the kernel of a theory about the return of shy toryism next time - only this time around it will be Reform announcers who vote 'on the safe side' in the booth Of course we won't know until the next GE!
Families are poor psephological indicators, I think ? Mine have little but disdain for Reform/Farage irrespective of their right/left tendencies. Or we could be outliers.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I think that repeated scandals, and cover-ups of scandals, on the part of people in authority, have created very fertile ground for Reform.
Indeed. It would be hard, I think, to deliberately design a scandal worse than {thing we can’t discuss on PB} for this.
Though the Post Office tried hard.
Time and again, people in authority (private, public, and charitable sectors), demonstrate that they have complete and utter contempt, for those that they are meant to be serving. Eventually, the voters notice.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I think that repeated scandals, and cover-ups of scandals, on the part of people in authority, have created very fertile ground for Reform.
Indeed. It would be hard, I think, to deliberately design a scandal worse than {thing we can’t discuss on PB} for this.
Though the Post Office tried hard.
Time and again, people in authority (private, public, and charitable sectors), demonstrate that they have complete and utter contempt, for those that they are meant to be serving. Eventually, the voters notice.
Why the fascist racist shit scum don’t understand that they need to sit quietly in a corner and say “thank you”, is one of life’s enduring mysteries.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat.
Yes some people need help. No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
But why is there more word of mouth than before?
I've not seen evidence that a high proportion of people getting PIP don't need help, aren't genuinely in need, and/or don't meet the existing strict rules.
Think of it as exponential growth. A new system was put in place, some claimed (including some legit, some not) and as people find out from those they know who've got it, others think "I should get that too".
Anecdotally I know people who've got it who should not. Reporting them won't fix the problem.
The issue is that compared to going out to work to get the money that's available, then going through the process is very rewarding, if you can play the system.
Lets say hypothetically it takes 40 hours to play the system to get £1000 PIP (round fictional numbers). 40 hours may sound like a lot, but that means that the pay-off is £25 per hour which is very rewarding.
If you work part-time minimum wage and claim UC too then your real marginal tax rate means that working extra hours means you only get £2 to take home if you work an extra hour. To get that same £1000 you'd need to do 500 hours of extra work.
40 hours of playing the system or 500 hours of work? Easy choice for some.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
@AndyJS The ban on laptops to my mind made sense a few years back, but a smartphone (Particularly a high end one) could probably duplicate the reasons given as to the reason they're banned (Broadcast of the match, betting on the match)
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
No - obviously, when Reform fails, their former supporters will demand rejoining the EU, an increase in migration and an increase in taxes.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
lol calling a tax lawyer "far left"
It’s amusing, on here I have been labelled both far right and a leftie.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
lol calling a tax lawyer "far left"
Not just far left, but a far left activist.
Neidle has been just as critical of Labour as he has of any other party.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
lol calling a tax lawyer "far left"
It’s amusing, on here I have been labelled both far right and a leftie.
Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
People are economically rational. Who'd have thunk it.
It’s not that they’re rational - it’s that these people were so degraded and retarded they couldn’t work out that drinking from an open sewer was bad, they couldn’t identify different animals (seen daily) by name, they were nearly all illiterate and shunned education, and some were so inarticulate the anthropologist first assumed many of them were mute (as well as filthy, inbred, and riddled with disease)
And yet they showed notable skill in extracting maximum welfare benefits
It is economically rational for people with limited education and poor work prospects to seek to exploit the welfare system to maximum extent possible.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
The more stigma there is against claiming benefits, the more generous they can afford to be. Encouraging everyone to claim the maximum they are entitled to has made the overall system worse.
Go to any former council estate and there will be someone who knows the system inside out and for a £100 or so they will tell you how to game the system to maximize your benefits
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
"Reform voters are almost doubly as pessimistic about the future of the country than Conservative voters, with 59 per cent feeling pessimistic about Britain’s future, compared to 33 per cent of Conservatives; 84 per centt of Reform voters feel angry about the state of the country, compared to 59 per cent of the Conservatives.
"For all of these issues, current Reform voters bear greater resemblance to current Green voters than to Conservatives. These voters have lost any faith in mainstream parties to deliver meaningful change that they can feel in their day-to-day lives, whereas those still sticking to the traditional two parties are more likely to feel better off and optimistic."
Yep, @leon and his family seem a weird admixture of Green and Purple, and feeling the pinch to boot.
To be fair, they're right to be concerned about the effects of a Reform government.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
The Gaza Independents would surely take a few too. Depending on whether Polanski or the Middle class NIMBY brigade takes the leadership probably determines where the greens end up in London
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
What due pension - the only thing the WASPI women are complaining about is that no one called them weekly until they understood what the change and its impact on them was
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
I think that repeated scandals, and cover-ups of scandals, on the part of people in authority, have created very fertile ground for Reform.
No scandals in Reform or their candidates and elected representatives of course
Since they aren't the people in charge, such things bother the voters much less.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
The Gaza Independents would surely take a few too. Depending on whether Polanski or the Middle class NIMBY brigade takes the leadership probably determines where the greens end up in London
What seats are their best bet in the smoke.
Ilford (Wes S), Bethnal Green look best for indies, I made a mistake with Stratford, its not close! Let me look at Greens......
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
I love the idea it’s a ‘due pension’ when it clearly isn’t, and that’s not even what the £10 Billion is for, and they’ve also lost every court case over it.
Legislation changed the state pension age for women in 1995.
The movement split between the back to 60 lot and those just after a shakedown of cash.
What the latterare after is compo for a failure of admin, a 30 month or so delay in sending a letter. The former some CEDAW stuff which may or may not happen.
My state pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. I don’t feel entitled to anything as I bothered to keep myself informed.
I've mentioned before on here that the publicity at the time was certainly enough to inform me. As it happened I was the last year that wasn't affected, but if I could take notice the publicity was perfectly adequate. Generally speaking I don't take much notice of adverts.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
The Gaza Independents would surely take a few too. Depending on whether Polanski or the Middle class NIMBY brigade takes the leadership probably determines where the greens end up in London
What seats are their best bet in the smoke.
Ilford (Wes S), Bethnal Green look best for indies, I made a mistake with Stratford, its not close! Let me look at Greens......
Poplar and Stratford are their closest 2, they arent that close in either yet......
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
Why hope they disappoint in local govt ? That’s just partisan politics.
As a resident in a Reform council, and I didn’t vote for them, I really do hope they succeed here and do a good job. We’ve been let down by Labour and the coalition.
I’m sure it’s unrelated to Reform as we have a Labour PCC but our local Police force now actually do seem to be taking the issue of low level petty criminal damage and behaviour in our town centre seriously. Taking action and upping patrols.
At the time of the locals I was seriously considering Reform, and would have voted for them and not cared what people here thought. Ironic as the independent I voted for then joined them !! However the more I look at them nationally and their fleshing out of their policies the less impressed I am with them. It’s fine being NOTA. That only gets you part of the way.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat.
Yes some people need help. No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
But why is there more word of mouth than before?
I've not seen evidence that a high proportion of people getting PIP don't need help, aren't genuinely in need, and/or don't meet the existing strict rules.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
As much as London led the dip in Tory fortunes, it probably also saves them from utter wipeout in councils and MPs. They'd have something like 13 to 15 London MPs on this poll
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
As much as London led the dip in Tory fortunes, it probably also saves them from utter wipeout in councils and MPs. They'd have something like 13 to 15 London MPs on this poll
Yes, the Tories now poll better with ethnic minorities than whites astonishingly if you believe Ipsos (so many white working class and lower middle class white voters who voted for Boris in 2019 now having gone Reform).
So the most likely Tory holds are seats with lots of ethnic minority and upper middle class voters on current polls especially those in and around London
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
As much as London led the dip in Tory fortunes, it probably also saves them from utter wipeout in councils and MPs. They'd have something like 13 to 15 London MPs on this poll
Comments
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/regime-change-is-only-solution-iran-shahs-son-says-2025-06-23/
It is thousands of pounds of "free" money that people feel entitled to.
But it is not free.
A starter for 10. Assume that people who neither need nor deserve cash getting it lowers the amount of cash available for those who do need it, and do deserve it.
I could not find one.
Yes some people need help.
No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
@Bart
"Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat."
Applies to Shahs too. Riches for life for being a poodle. Same as the last Shah.
Quite often, these are an oil drum sized barrel, with a space frame cage inside, holding a small container in the middle, well away from the walls of the barrel.
The container holds the nuclear material. Often has neutron absorption built in to make it safer.
The name “bird cage” comes from the frame.
The idea is that the space frame inside the barrel keeps the nuclear material x cm away from anything else. So if you stack the drums etc no risk of criticality by accident.
As to further enrichment - they still need a full cascade for this. It’s easier than before, but still requires industrial scale facilities.
A short segment from Rory the ex-Tory on all the points in his career when Netanyahu has demanded that Iran be attacked or regime change be imposed because they are about to develop nuclear weapons.
(Starting in 1990).
https://youtu.be/nXPZR7MPAb8?t=525
Its funny how you can breathlessly alternate between saying that the attack was too late as Iran already have the HEU which they'll still have now even after the attack, and that its the boy who cried wolf.
The wolf was always there. It would have been better for these attacks to happen BEFORE they had the HEU, rather than afterwards.
And, the Ipsos numbers are staggering. 51% of working class voters, and 42% of voters aged over 50 now support Reform. So anecdata and data are matching up.
The likelihood is, even at a typical university, you could get 10-15% supporting Reform.
I don't think a constitutional monarchy would be a bad idea for Iran. Especially if it meant the armed forces having a primary loyalty to a stability-seeking monarch instead of a politician.
But, in practice, unlikely to happen. There was a lot of talk after the collapse of the Soviet Union of monarchies being restored in Eastern Europe, especially Romania and Bulgaria where they still had living ex-kings. Never happened though.
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
But for those who don't need it, it can be easy relative to going to work for the same amount of money.
Especially since if you successfully get it, you can get it on top of your wages.
Yes its to help those who need it, but the problem is that those who don't need it getting it mean that there's less money for those who genuinely do need it. Not sure why so many fail to grasp this key point.
"Other people are ripping you off"
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n11/william-davies/tv-meets-fruit-machine
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Perhaps 40% for writers cramp means there are only 5 cases, or that the people got it filling in a form to apply for PIP?
We are on an away with TFW to Barmouth for lunch then back for early evening
I simply have to agree completely and none of the parties are remotely addressing thr economic car crash on its way
Means testing the NHS and Pensions together with an increase in retirement age is inevitable
Legislation changed the state pension age for women in 1995.
The movement split between the back to 60 lot and those just after a shakedown of cash.
What the latterare after is compo for a failure of admin, a 30 month or so delay in sending a letter. The former some CEDAW stuff which may or may not happen.
My state pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. I don’t feel entitled to anything as I bothered to keep myself informed.
Around the time of the brexit nakba I remember some rat-faced fucking nobody from a shit hole like Sheffield saying that he was voting leave because 'it couldn't make things any worse'. I do hope he enjoyed the Boriswave.
Farage is it the artiste non pareil at harnessing that stripe of brainless reflex.
And yet they showed notable skill in extracting maximum welfare benefits
"Reform voters are almost doubly as pessimistic about the future of the country than Conservative voters, with 59 per cent feeling pessimistic about Britain’s future, compared to 33 per cent of Conservatives; 84 per centt of Reform voters feel angry about the state of the country, compared to 59 per cent of the Conservatives.
"For all of these issues, current Reform voters bear greater resemblance to current Green voters than to Conservatives. These voters have lost any faith in mainstream parties to deliver meaningful change that they can feel in their day-to-day lives, whereas those still sticking to the traditional two parties are more likely to feel better off and optimistic."
Yep, @leon and his family seem a weird admixture of Green and Purple, and feeling the pinch to boot.
I reckon I could claim 4 or 5 of them and I’m really quite healthy (kanska )
https://x.com/wallstengine/status/1937461976336306542?s=61
I’ve got an arthritic thumb. I may get a few quid.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
Though the Post Office tried hard.
I've not seen evidence that a high proportion of people getting PIP don't need help, aren't genuinely in need, and/or don't meet the existing strict rules.
Or we could be outliers.
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Laptops and Tablets
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far
Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Anecdotally I know people who've got it who should not. Reporting them won't fix the problem.
The issue is that compared to going out to work to get the money that's available, then going through the process is very rewarding, if you can play the system.
Lets say hypothetically it takes 40 hours to play the system to get £1000 PIP (round fictional numbers). 40 hours may sound like a lot, but that means that the pay-off is £25 per hour which is very rewarding.
If you work part-time minimum wage and claim UC too then your real marginal tax rate means that working extra hours means you only get £2 to take home if you work an extra hour. To get that same £1000 you'd need to do 500 hours of extra work.
40 hours of playing the system or 500 hours of work? Easy choice for some.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
London | General Election polling by Savanta - 24/06/25
🟥 LAB: 32% (-11)
🟦 CON: 21% (=)
➡️ RFM: 15% (+6)
🟧 LDM: 13% (+2)
🟩 GRN: 13% (+3)
+/- vs. GE2024
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Israel and Iran “ don’t know what the fuck they’re doing “…. Trump - leaving the White House for #nato summit -is not happy.
https://x.com/maitlis/status/1937467058133815349
The Mad King decreed that the tide of war had stopped. Now his feet are underwater...
Thank goodness he isn't important, I dunno, President or something...
Neidle has been just as critical of Labour as he has of any other party.
I wonder if Trump will soon be backing a Palestinian state.
Suggests that if the right can unite around a candidate they could easily win the mayoralty
But that’s an enormous IF
Indies - Ilford North, Stratford and Bow, Bethnal Green
Reform - Hornchurch, Romford (probably), Bexleyheath (marginal vs Tories, Labour drop to third)
Pressure on Old Bexley, Orpington and Biggin Hill
Tories - Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet, Finchley, Brent West, Kensington, Chelsea, Cities of London/Westminster
What seats are their best bet in the smoke.
https://x.com/cspan/status/1937468807536169315
BREAKING: Trump said Israel and Iran have been fighting "for so long and so hard" that they don’t know “what the fuck they’re doing.”
i) The baroness' work
ii) Scottish subsamples
iii) Disparaging Radiohead
iv) Talking up England's chances.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England#London
Let me look at Greens......
As a resident in a Reform council, and I didn’t vote for them, I really do hope they succeed here and do a good job. We’ve been let down by Labour and the coalition.
I’m sure it’s unrelated to Reform as we have a Labour PCC but our local Police force now actually do seem to be taking the issue of low level petty criminal damage and behaviour in our town centre seriously. Taking action and upping patrols.
At the time of the locals I was seriously considering Reform, and would have voted for them and not cared what people here thought. Ironic as the independent I voted for then joined them !! However the more I look at them nationally and their fleshing out of their policies the less impressed I am with them. It’s fine being NOTA. That only gets you part of the way.
Next years locals in London v interesting
Happiest man this morning will be Vance
Trump’s reaction, absolutely priceless 😂😂😂😂
https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=fow_runs;partnership_wicketmax1=1;partnership_wicketval1=partnership_wicket;team=1;template=results;type=fow
Not that far behind Trescothick/Vaughan either.
https://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=fow_average;partnership_wicketmax1=1;partnership_wicketval1=partnership_wicket;qualmin1=900;qualval1=fow_runs;team=1;template=results;type=fow
So the most likely Tory holds are seats with lots of ethnic minority and upper middle class voters on current polls especially those in and around London