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Bombing Iran bombs with UK voters meanwhile in America… – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 19,250

    Dan Hannan wrote a piece in the Telegraph the other day claiming Britain was a shit-hole, so presumably even he no longer believes in Dan Hannan day.

    Is that more, or less, benign than Ed Balls day ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,250
    Ouch !

    “The only advantage England have got when Shoaib Bashir is bowling is that he isn’t fielding.” Ian Chappell
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,222

    The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion.
    Landslides lead to weak government

    They’re going to cave, aren’t they?
    Starmer Always Chickens Out.....?
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 165

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
    What a childishly nihilistic position

    We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
    It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.

    I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
    The site is mostly unreadable thee days 5 or 6 posters are on an appointment endless and supremely tedious rant about Trump. There's a massive difference between quality and quantity ought to be a mantra they try following.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 998
    carnforth said:

    Battlebus said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.

    The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.

    We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.

    The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.

    We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
    I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.

    A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
    Except it is not pennies.

    It is thousands of pounds of "free" money that people feel entitled to.

    But it is not free.

    A starter for 10. Assume that people who neither need nor deserve cash getting it lowers the amount of cash available for those who do need it, and do deserve it.
    Here are the statistics for benefit fraud. Quite easy to find. Do you have a reputable source that would contradict these details? Or are you judging this heuristically.


    The difficulty is not fraud; it is people who are entitled to payments, but who should not be.
    Eh?

    You fill out a form and provide evidence. This is assessed and checked. Many get refused first time round. Goes to appeal. Refused again. Goes to tribunal where people who actually know the law (judges) reverse the DWP decision. There are checks, balances, appeals and fraud investigation.

    If you have evidence of those "that should not be" then report it to the DWP. Anything else in unevidenced prejudice.

    What may colour many people's judgments is the legislation is not fit for purpose (see earlier stats) where something that shouldn't get paid, is paid because the legislation says so.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,053
    Taz said:

    Dan Hannan wrote a piece in the Telegraph the other day claiming Britain was a shit-hole, so presumably even he no longer believes in Dan Hannan day.

    Is that more, or less, benign than Ed Balls day ?
    Ed Balls day is too commercialized

    Dan Hannan day remains a day of solemn remembrance for what might have been, if only we had voted to leave...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,633
    Taz said:

    Ouch !

    “The only advantage England have got when Shoaib Bashir is bowling is that he isn’t fielding.” Ian Chappell

    I am pretty sure that was originally said about Tufnell.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,053
    scampi25 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
    What a childishly nihilistic position

    We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
    It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.

    I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
    The site is mostly unreadable thee days 5 or 6 posters are on an appointment endless and supremely tedious rant about Trump. There's a massive difference between quality and quantity ought to be a mantra they try following.
    Can you get your AI to rewrite that in English?
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,250
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Dan Hannan wrote a piece in the Telegraph the other day claiming Britain was a shit-hole, so presumably even he no longer believes in Dan Hannan day.

    Is that more, or less, benign than Ed Balls day ?
    Ed Balls day is too commercialized

    Dan Hannan day remains a day of solemn remembrance for what might have been, if only we had voted to leave...
    Is it ? Is there Ed Balls day merchandise ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,590
    edited 12:42PM
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses

    I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay

    But still

    Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
    Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
    You sir are a purveyor of fake news. The truth is almond.
    The best pastry is the freshest one to go with your morning coffee.
    A frangipan pasty can indeed be a delight, though.
    Deleted

    I read pastry as pasty.

    What a twit.
    No, pasty indeed, but using flaky desert pastry, stuffed with a very generous amount of frangipan.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,407
    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses

    I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay

    But still

    Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
    Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
    You sir are a purveyor of fake news. The truth is almond.
    Nearly right. Pecan.
    I'm firmly in the almond lobby.
    There is a little cafe in Chorlton Green called Bisous Bisous which does a delectable almond pain au chocolat. I was mildly deflated to find on venturing into my local Gail's (discussed here a month or so back) does something similar. But it is not quite as good.
    I always want the independent's product to be better than the chain's.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,250
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Ouch !

    “The only advantage England have got when Shoaib Bashir is bowling is that he isn’t fielding.” Ian Chappell

    I am pretty sure that was originally said about Tufnell.
    Did you know Ian Chappell is an anagram of ‘I can help pal’
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,590
    Nigelb said:

    Rain.

    Stopped.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,535
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Dan Hannan wrote a piece in the Telegraph the other day claiming Britain was a shit-hole, so presumably even he no longer believes in Dan Hannan day.

    Is that more, or less, benign than Ed Balls day ?
    Ed Balls day is too commercialized

    Dan Hannan day remains a day of solemn remembrance for what might have been, if only we had voted to leave...
    Did Dan get anything wrong? As I sit here and watch the unicorns grazing the sunny uplands I don't believe he did.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,762
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses

    I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay

    But still

    Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
    Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
    Nothing "au raisin" is the "best" anything...
    Chocolate works well
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,672
    Battlebus said:

    carnforth said:



    The difficulty is not fraud; it is people who are entitled to payments, but who should not be.

    the legislation is not fit for purpose (see earlier stats) where something that shouldn't get paid, is paid because the legislation says so.
    That's exactly what Carnforth is saying.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 165
    Scott_xP said:

    scampi25 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
    What a childishly nihilistic position

    We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
    It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.

    I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
    The site is mostly unreadable thee days 5 or 6 posters are on an appointment endless and supremely tedious rant about Trump. There's a massive difference between quality and quantity ought to be a mantra they try following.
    Can you get your AI to rewrite that in English?
    You're so incredibly boring it's difficult to focus - but so funny how you identify yourself as the target. Job done!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,279
    Andy_JS said:

    You won't believe this - I'm not allowed to go in Headingley cricket ground with a laptop, so I've got to find somewhere to deposit it before I go in.

    Media rights? They've sussed out you are the one livestreaming the match. Or you might be. Why take the chance?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,535
    Mortimer said:

    The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion.
    Landslides lead to weak government

    They’re going to cave, aren’t they?
    Starmer Always Chickens Out.....?
    SACO? What is a saco?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,738
    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to see a new Savanta/ComRes poll out for London. The last one was early November last year and had Labour at 36%, the Conservatives on 24%, Reform on 13% and the LDs and Greens both on 12% so perhaps not the dramatic changes the Standard headline would suggest.

    The next elections due in London are the locals next year and in 2022 Labour won 42%, the Conservatives 26%, the LDs 14% and the Greens 12% so it'll be interesting to see if Savanta have asked a local VI as well as a GE VI.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,394
    Battlebus said:

    carnforth said:

    Battlebus said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.

    The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.

    We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.

    The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.

    We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
    I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.

    A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
    Except it is not pennies.

    It is thousands of pounds of "free" money that people feel entitled to.

    But it is not free.

    A starter for 10. Assume that people who neither need nor deserve cash getting it lowers the amount of cash available for those who do need it, and do deserve it.
    Here are the statistics for benefit fraud. Quite easy to find. Do you have a reputable source that would contradict these details? Or are you judging this heuristically.


    The difficulty is not fraud; it is people who are entitled to payments, but who should not be.
    Eh?

    You fill out a form and provide evidence. This is assessed and checked. Many get refused first time round. Goes to appeal. Refused again. Goes to tribunal where people who actually know the law (judges) reverse the DWP decision. There are checks, balances, appeals and fraud investigation.

    If you have evidence of those "that should not be" then report it to the DWP. Anything else in unevidenced prejudice.

    What may colour many people's judgments is the legislation is not fit for purpose (see earlier stats) where something that shouldn't get paid, is paid because the legislation says so.
    Let me try again, in baby steps for you.

    We have a democracy. That means we change our laws from time to time. That means sometimes who is entitled to benefits can change. This tends to happen when the government believes some people who are entitled to benefits should not be.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,535
    edited 1:02PM
    scampi25 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
    What a childishly nihilistic position

    We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
    It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.

    I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
    The site is mostly unreadable thee days 5 or 6 posters are on an appointment endless and supremely tedious rant about Trump. There's a massive difference between quality and quantity ought to be a mantra they try following.
    Are you sure you are commenting about this site? It seems primarily that a handful of posters (possibly quite appropriately) spend their days beating up on Starmer.

    The critique of Trump crosses most political boundaries. Some of the most vehemently critical are ( formerly?) Johnsonian Tories like for example, @BartholomewRoberts and @MarqueeMark . Additionally some of the more centrist dad posters are also critical. For my part, and I am one of those posters with Trump Derangement Syndrome, I believe Trump is fair game if he does insane shit when he framed his election victory around Biden's age -related, neuro-diverse unsuitability to remain as President.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,407

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Savanta have London polling out
    London | General Election polling by Savanta - 24/06/25

    🟥 LAB: 32% (-11)
    🟦 CON: 21% (=)
    ➡️ RFM: 15% (+6)
    🟧 LDM: 13% (+2)
    🟩 GRN: 13% (+3)

    +/- vs. GE2024

    Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats

    Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
    Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.

    London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England#London
    The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
    I'm only half joking when I talk about LabCon as a single political position. Two very different parties proffering largely the same policies. People moved off the Tories very strongly to Labour, and now find a new government with the old policies. Of course the Tories aren't benefitting from Labour being unpopular.
    I would suggest the people who moved from the Tories to Labour are not particularly fussed about any 'new government with old policies'. What those people wanted was same policies with other people delivering them.

    I'd say the Tory-Lab-Tory switchers are those who are uncomfortable with Labour's economic approach like NI increases. Labour are losing a lot to LD and the far left, but I'd suggest most of these people didn't start from the Tories. And Labour are losing voters to Reform, but who knows where those voters started out?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,659

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Dan Hannan wrote a piece in the Telegraph the other day claiming Britain was a shit-hole, so presumably even he no longer believes in Dan Hannan day.

    Is that more, or less, benign than Ed Balls day ?
    Ed Balls day is too commercialized

    Dan Hannan day remains a day of solemn remembrance for what might have been, if only we had voted to leave...
    Did Dan get anything wrong? As I sit here and watch the unicorns grazing the sunny uplands I don't believe he did.
    Denying the Welsh of their sheep and rain was surely Brexit's greatest cruelty.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,053
    Trump yesterday: " Why not regime change?"

    Trump today: "We don't want regime change."

    meanwhile...

    @MahyarTousi

    King Reza is now calling for the uprising to achieve internal revolution while the Islamic regime is weak.

    Will the Iranian people, who are not revolutionary by nature, be able to do this?

    https://x.com/MahyarTousi/status/1937491862920589651
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,279
    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    This is the problem that we had to overcome to get the Good Friday Agreement. There are always extremists, even in positions of power, who are ready to respond to outrages from the other side. And there will always be one more outrage from the other side. Whenever is the ceasefire, someone will have fired the last missile, leaving someone else burning to retaliate.

    What President Trump must do is have both sides agree to ignore each other's provocations. Otherwise he is whistling in the wind.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,672
    Scott_xP said:

    Trump yesterday: " Why not regime change?"

    Trump today: "We don't want regime change."

    meanwhile...

    @MahyarTousi

    King Reza is now calling for the uprising to achieve internal revolution while the Islamic regime is weak.

    Will the Iranian people, who are not revolutionary by nature, be able to do this?

    https://x.com/MahyarTousi/status/1937491862920589651

    Can't see a colour revolution happening in his favour, he's too close to Netanyahu. I expect in Iran there's a fair amount of rallying to the flag happening right now to be perfectly honest.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,208
    edited 1:11PM

    Mortimer said:

    The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion.
    Landslides lead to weak government

    They’re going to cave, aren’t they?
    Starmer Always Chickens Out.....?
    SACO? What is a saco?
    Abbreviation for "sack o' shit"?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,184
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses

    I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay

    But still

    Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
    Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
    Don't disagree. Can be a thing of beauty. But "delicious"?

    I think most food critics would or should say "proper" or maybe "good" as in "the olives came with good bread..."
    This pain au raisin is quite something

    Pastry so buttery it melts, lots of lovely raisins, the properly golden core - everyone is raving about the new chef here. He’s certainly sourcing some great pastries (or making them). Also the coffee is exceptional now


    I’d quite like to have daily regime of walking down here. Pastry and coffee. Stare at the waves. Walk the cliffs. A nice life quality

    But then… the winters. And the mizzle. Hmm

    Living in Cornwall only works, I reckon, if you can escape four months of the year
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,881
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting deep dive into the pitch/appeal of RefUK, which also mirrors MAGA to some extent

    "Other people are ripping you off"

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n11/william-davies/tv-meets-fruit-machine

    I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.

    People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.

    People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed

    Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.

    If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.

    Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.

    Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.

    I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.

    What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?

    Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
    By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.

    I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far
    Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.

    I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.

    Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.

    It’s like he does not like being challenged.
    Lets hope.

    It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting deep dive into the pitch/appeal of RefUK, which also mirrors MAGA to some extent

    "Other people are ripping you off"

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n11/william-davies/tv-meets-fruit-machine

    I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.

    People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.

    People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed

    Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.

    If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.

    Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.

    Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.

    I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.

    What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?

    Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
    By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.

    I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far
    Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.

    I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.

    Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.

    It’s like he does not like being challenged.
    lol calling a tax lawyer "far left" :D:D:D
    Not just far left, but a far left activist.

    Neidle has been just as critical of Labour as he has of any other party.
    The populist right care little about truth. It's a useful thing to say to discredit someone.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,407
    A wasp just flew into the room.
    I told it to 'fuck off, wasp'.
    The wasp flew out again.

    I suspect my day may have peaked.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,931
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
    What a childishly nihilistic position

    We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
    It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.

    I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
    TDS dictates that everything trump says and does is always wrong. You almost start to wonder if the main reason why trump flips between completely contradictory positions as quickly as he does, is to catch out the rank hypocrisy in so many people.
    Surely the most significant victim of rump Derangement Syndrome is ... Trump.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,250

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting deep dive into the pitch/appeal of RefUK, which also mirrors MAGA to some extent

    "Other people are ripping you off"

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n11/william-davies/tv-meets-fruit-machine

    I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.

    People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.

    People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed

    Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.

    If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.

    Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.

    Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.

    I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.

    What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?

    Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
    By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.

    I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far
    Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.

    I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.

    Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.

    It’s like he does not like being challenged.
    Lets hope.

    It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting deep dive into the pitch/appeal of RefUK, which also mirrors MAGA to some extent

    "Other people are ripping you off"

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v47/n11/william-davies/tv-meets-fruit-machine

    I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.

    People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.

    People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed

    Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.

    If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.

    Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.

    Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.

    I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.

    What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?

    Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
    By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.

    I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far
    Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.

    I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.

    Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.

    It’s like he does not like being challenged.
    lol calling a tax lawyer "far left" :D:D:D
    Not just far left, but a far left activist.

    Neidle has been just as critical of Labour as he has of any other party.
    The populist right care little about truth. It's a useful thing to say to discredit someone.
    No different to the populist left then. Just the other side of the political spectrum
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,672
    I suppose Trump... could... try and pull the plug on military support for Israel, but some district judge would probably order it got reinstated :D:D:D
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,681
    Cookie said:

    A wasp just flew into the room.
    I told it to 'fuck off, wasp'.
    The wasp flew out again.

    I suspect my day may have peaked.

    At least you've taken the sting out of the day...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,184

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch

    Here’s how they related to welfare:

    “Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.

    “ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”

    I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.

    He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:

    - in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax
    - If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare
    - At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers
    - Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression
    - Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations

    That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending

    Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression

    Yes. This is actually a point made by some of the evolutionary psychologists that studied Duddies’ Branch

    The hillbillies of the hollow might have been weird inbred freaks but their decision to go for welfare was entirely rational given the extremely limited options available. There was barely any work and what there was meant you had to go a long way away - to the newer Kentucky coalmines. Breaking your family

    The previous mines had left the hollow so
    polluted agriculture barely worked. They couldn’t grow their own food, even if they tried (they gave up trying)

    The only means to get money and get fed without destroying the entire community was welfare. So they made that rational choice: welfare
    And while you are pointing and laughing at the “weird inbreed freaks” (how many times do you need to repeat that?) more serious people are trying to fix the problem
    What the fuck are you on about? I’m not laughing at the poor people of Duddie’s Branch. I’m presenting them as a fascinating and tragic example of how human societies can degrade in particular circumstances to the most extreme degree. Isolation is the key

    Tasmanian aborigines are another example of this. They became so isolated and backward they forgot how to make clothes. Despite Tasmania getting really quite cold in winter

    All they could do was throw kangaroo skins over their shoulders to keep out the chill. Or they smeared themselves with animal fat. Otherwise nude all winter

    Extraordinary
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,250
    Cookie said:

    A wasp just flew into the room.
    I told it to 'fuck off, wasp'.
    The wasp flew out again.

    I suspect my day may have peaked.

    I’m going to try that next time.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,407
    edited 1:17PM
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses

    I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay

    But still

    Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
    Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
    Don't disagree. Can be a thing of beauty. But "delicious"?

    I think most food critics would or should say "proper" or maybe "good" as in "the olives came with good bread..."
    This pain au raisin is quite something

    Pastry so buttery it melts, lots of lovely raisins, the properly golden core - everyone is raving about the new chef here. He’s certainly sourcing some great pastries (or making them). Also the coffee is exceptional now


    I’d quite like to have daily regime of walking down here. Pastry and coffee. Stare at the waves. Walk the cliffs. A nice life quality

    But then… the winters. And the mizzle. Hmm

    Living in Cornwall only works, I reckon, if you can escape four months of the year
    Have you been to Windjammer on the harbour (just north of the museum)? A few years since I went to Falmouth but that place suited me very well for needlessly indulgent breakfasts/brunches/lunches. Indeed, Falmouth suited me very well indeed.

    The presence of a good cafe does far more for my enjoyment of a place than the presence of a good restaurant.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,633

    Mortimer said:

    The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion.
    Landslides lead to weak government

    They’re going to cave, aren’t they?
    Starmer Always Chickens Out.....?
    SACO? What is a saco?
    Is that not what quite a few Labour back benchers are talking about in relation to Starmer? It's something similar to that at any rate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,854
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1937500323247219070

    China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,590
    Cookie said:

    A wasp just flew into the room.
    I told it to 'fuck off, wasp'.
    The wasp flew out again.

    I suspect my day may have peaked.

    If only every invasion were so easily ended without casualties.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,948

    Mortimer said:

    The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion.
    Landslides lead to weak government

    They’re going to cave, aren’t they?
    Starmer Always Chickens Out.....?
    SACO? What is a saco?
    Starmer doesn't just chicken out, he always does so reliably.

    Starmer always reliably chickens out. Sarco:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarco_pod
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,441

    NEW THREAD

  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,931
    edited 1:22PM
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump yesterday: " Why not regime change?"

    Trump today: "We don't want regime change."

    meanwhile...

    @MahyarTousi

    King Reza is now calling for the uprising to achieve internal revolution while the Islamic regime is weak.

    Will the Iranian people, who are not revolutionary by nature, be able to do this?

    https://x.com/MahyarTousi/status/1937491862920589651

    Can't see a colour revolution happening in his favour, he's too close to Netanyahu. I expect in Iran there's a fair amount of rallying to the flag happening right now to be perfectly honest.
    I'd agree so.

    I remarked the other day that the current President of Iran (since last July) is a reformer, who has for example told the revolutionary police to back off enforcing laws relating to women's head coverings.

    That has been clear from interviews carried out inside the country by journos who specialise in Iran.

    I'd say that the achievements of Netanyahu and Trump will have been to switch a conservative Islamist old regime vs reformist demographic to a nationalist vs people attacking us dynamic.

    I don't see how that will help achieve peace or stability in the Middle East, but then I don't think either Trump or Netanyahu are interested in peace or stability.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,405
    Cookie said:

    A wasp just flew into the room.
    I told it to 'fuck off, wasp'.
    The wasp flew out again.

    I suspect my day may have peaked.

    You need to channel your inner Ukrainian to full effect: "Wasp, go fuck yourself".

    Mind you, your wording had the more satisfactory outcome.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,881

    Mortimer said:

    The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion.
    Landslides lead to weak government

    They’re going to cave, aren’t they?
    Starmer Always Chickens Out.....?
    SACO? What is a saco?
    It's a town in Maine.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 24,948
    MattW said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
    What a childishly nihilistic position

    We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
    It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.

    I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
    TDS dictates that everything trump says and does is always wrong. You almost start to wonder if the main reason why trump flips between completely contradictory positions as quickly as he does, is to catch out the rank hypocrisy in so many people.
    Surely the most significant victim of rump Derangement Syndrome is ... Trump.
    Is rump Derangement Syndrome the way he admires his own daughter's derriere?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,382
    Leon said:

    Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!

    But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
    Ten years time. We gave birth to Brexit on January 31st, 2020

    So let’s reconvene on January 31st, 2030
    @Leon in 2030: "Real Brexit only began when Reform was elected in 2029. Let's check back in 2039 shall we."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,590
    We're surely overdue an England collapse ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,184
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses

    I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay

    But still

    Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
    Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
    Don't disagree. Can be a thing of beauty. But "delicious"?

    I think most food critics would or should say "proper" or maybe "good" as in "the olives came with good bread..."
    This pain au raisin is quite something

    Pastry so buttery it melts, lots of lovely raisins, the properly golden core - everyone is raving about the new chef here. He’s certainly sourcing some great pastries (or making them). Also the coffee is exceptional now


    I’d quite like to have daily regime of walking down here. Pastry and coffee. Stare at the waves. Walk the cliffs. A nice life quality

    But then… the winters. And the mizzle. Hmm

    Living in Cornwall only works, I reckon, if you can escape four months of the year
    Have you been to Windjammer on the harbour (just north of the museum)? A few years since I went to Falmouth but that place suited me very well for needlessly indulgent breakfasts/brunches/lunches. Indeed, Falmouth suited me very well indeed.

    The presence of a good cafe does far more for my enjoyment of a place than the presence of a good restaurant.
    The ideal is a cafe that also does really good food if you need it. Real seafood and the like. But most of the day it is happy to serve great coffee, pastries, beer, wine

    And this place has the most fantastic location

    https://www.gyllybeach.com/

    I could almost move down here just for this caff. But then what if they shut it and turned it into a disco?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,382
    scampi25 said:

    Leon said:

    Barnesian said:

    vik said:

    At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.

    No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.

    At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.

    The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share

    I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
    What a childishly nihilistic position

    We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
    It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.

    I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
    The site is mostly unreadable thee days 5 or 6 posters are on an appointment endless and supremely tedious rant about Trump. There's a massive difference between quality and quantity ought to be a mantra they try following.
    I'm not going to ban @williamglenn for you, sorry.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,693
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch

    Here’s how they related to welfare:

    “Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.

    “ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”

    I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.

    He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:

    - in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax
    - If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare
    - At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers
    - Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression
    - Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations

    That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending

    Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression

    Yes. This is actually a point made by some of the evolutionary psychologists that studied Duddies’ Branch

    The hillbillies of the hollow might have been weird inbred freaks but their decision to go for welfare was entirely rational given the extremely limited options available. There was barely any work and what there was meant you had to go a long way away - to the newer Kentucky coalmines. Breaking your family

    The previous mines had left the hollow so
    polluted agriculture barely worked. They couldn’t grow their own food, even if they tried (they gave up trying)

    The only means to get money and get fed without destroying the entire community was welfare. So they made that rational choice: welfare
    And while you are pointing and laughing at the “weird inbreed freaks” (how many times do you need to repeat that?) more serious people are trying to fix the problem
    What the fuck are you on about? I’m not laughing at the poor people of Duddie’s Branch. I’m presenting them as a fascinating and tragic example of how human societies can degrade in particular circumstances to the most extreme degree. Isolation is the key

    Tasmanian aborigines are another example of this. They became so isolated and backward they forgot how to make clothes. Despite Tasmania getting really quite cold in winter

    All they could do was throw kangaroo skins over their shoulders to keep out the chill. Or they smeared themselves with animal fat. Otherwise nude all winter

    Extraordinary
    And they were exterminated by colonists.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 998
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch

    Here’s how they related to welfare:

    “Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.

    “ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”

    I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.

    He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:

    - in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax
    - If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare
    - At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers
    - Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression
    - Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations

    That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending

    Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression

    Yes. This is actually a point made by some of the evolutionary psychologists that studied Duddies’ Branch

    The hillbillies of the hollow might have been weird inbred freaks but their decision to go for welfare was entirely rational given the extremely limited options available. There was barely any work and what there was meant you had to go a long way away - to the newer Kentucky coalmines. Breaking your family

    The previous mines had left the hollow so
    polluted agriculture barely worked. They couldn’t grow their own food, even if they tried (they gave up trying)

    The only means to get money and get fed without destroying the entire community was welfare. So they made that rational choice: welfare
    And while you are pointing and laughing at the “weird inbreed freaks” (how many times do you need to repeat that?) more serious people are trying to fix the problem
    What the fuck are you on about? I’m not laughing at the poor people of Duddie’s Branch. I’m presenting them as a fascinating and tragic example of how human societies can degrade in particular circumstances to the most extreme degree. Isolation is the key

    Tasmanian aborigines are another example of this. They became so isolated and backward they forgot how to make clothes. Despite Tasmania getting really quite cold in winter

    All they could do was throw kangaroo skins over their shoulders to keep out the chill. Or they smeared themselves with animal fat. Otherwise nude all winter

    Extraordinary
    You've not heard about the Tassie Tuxedo then.

    "The black puffer jacket is the unofficial uniform of the island state. Every Tasmanian has one – a practical and cosy partner to our unashamed variable climate and adventurous spirit."

    https://www.thetasmaniantuxedo.com/about/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,443
    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses

    I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay

    But still

    Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
    Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
    You sir are a purveyor of fake news. The truth is almond.
    Nearly right. Pecan.
    I'm firmly in the almond lobby.
    There is a little cafe in Chorlton Green called Bisous Bisous which does a delectable almond pain au chocolat. I was mildly deflated to find on venturing into my local Gail's (discussed here a month or so back) does something similar. But it is not quite as good.
    I always want the independent's product to be better than the chain's.
    I think that, if baked to the same standard, an almond croissant would be superior to a cinnamon swirl, but the bakery in Inishannon bakes cinnamon swirls, and not almond croissants, and their cinnamon swirls are the best pastry in Creation, and so the hypothesis remains untested.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,965
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch

    Here’s how they related to welfare:

    “Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.

    “ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”

    I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.

    He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:

    - in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax
    - If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare
    - At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers
    - Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression
    - Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations

    That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending

    Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression

    Yes. This is actually a point made by some of the evolutionary psychologists that studied Duddies’ Branch

    The hillbillies of the hollow might have been weird inbred freaks but their decision to go for welfare was entirely rational given the extremely limited options available. There was barely any work and what there was meant you had to go a long way away - to the newer Kentucky coalmines. Breaking your family

    The previous mines had left the hollow so
    polluted agriculture barely worked. They couldn’t grow their own food, even if they tried (they gave up trying)

    The only means to get money and get fed without destroying the entire community was welfare. So they made that rational choice: welfare
    And while you are pointing and laughing at the “weird inbreed freaks” (how many times do you need to repeat that?) more serious people are trying to fix the problem
    What the fuck are you on about? I’m not laughing at the poor people of Duddie’s Branch. I’m presenting them as a fascinating and tragic example of how human societies can degrade in particular circumstances to the most extreme degree. Isolation is the key

    Tasmanian aborigines are another example of this. They became so isolated and backward they forgot how to make clothes. Despite Tasmania getting really quite cold in winter

    All they could do was throw kangaroo skins over their shoulders to keep out the chill. Or they smeared themselves with animal fat. Otherwise nude all winter

    Extraordinary
    Weird cases where evolution just seems to go into reverse.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,945
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Dan Hannan wrote a piece in the Telegraph the other day claiming Britain was a shit-hole, so presumably even he no longer believes in Dan Hannan day.

    Is that more, or less, benign than Ed Balls day ?
    Ed Balls day is too commercialized

    Dan Hannan day remains a day of solemn remembrance for what might have been, if only we had voted to leave...
    Is it ? Is there Ed Balls day merchandise ?
    Apparently, but it looks like [don't go there - Ed]
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,673
    Cookie said:

    A wasp just flew into the room.
    I told it to 'fuck off, wasp'.
    The wasp flew out again.

    I suspect my day may have peaked.

    I used to have a really good record with getting big flies to fly out, by shouting 'Get out' at them. My theory was that perhaps the sound waves propelled them to the open window.

    But I gave up that method when my consideration for my neighbours increased.
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