Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
As much as London led the dip in Tory fortunes, it probably also saves them from utter wipeout in councils and MPs. They'd have something like 13 to 15 London MPs on this poll
They’d gain a few councils back too, surely ?
I guess Barnet, Wandsworth, Westminster would be targeted?
The Mad King decreed that the tide of war had stopped. Now his feet are underwater...
I've just heard him on the radio. He's utterly clueless, he thinks the USAF bombing solved the problem.
To be fair to him, he is from a long line of presidents who think that USAF bombing solves the problem. To a man with a hammer, all problems look like a nail.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
I love the idea it’s a ‘due pension’ when it clearly isn’t, and that’s not even what the £10 Billion is for, and they’ve also lost every court case over it.
Legislation changed the state pension age for women in 1995.
The movement split between the back to 60 lot and those just after a shakedown of cash.
What the latterare after is compo for a failure of admin, a 30 month or so delay in sending a letter. The former some CEDAW stuff which may or may not happen.
My state pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. I don’t feel entitled to anything as I bothered to keep myself informed.
I've mentioned before on here that the publicity at the time was certainly enough to inform me. As it happened I was the last year that wasn't affected, but if I could take notice the publicity was perfectly adequate. Generally speaking I don't take much notice of adverts.
And this is why I have a major problem with the Lib Dem’s. They’re as bad as reform in the sense they will say to people what they want to hear in order to get a vote without even considering the reality of it. Others did on WASPE to be fair. It hurt the Lib Dem’s on tuition fees. If they get into govt it will hurt them again.
Their parliamentary candidates didn’t even understand what the £10 billion being asked for was actually for. As we saw here, Rochdale thought it was ‘due pension’, and I’m sure many other Lib Dem’s did too.
BREAKING: Trump said Israel and Iran have been fighting "for so long and so hard" that they don’t know “what the fuck they’re doing.”
Says the man who just bombed Iran, now tells Israel his supposed ally to stop bombing Iran.
Happiest man this morning will be Vance
Agreed.
Vance will be delighted. He made it clear in his address the bombing was a one off. Irrespective of what Trump does next that’s a line he can stick with and he can use this to good effect.
The Mad King decreed that the tide of war had stopped. Now his feet are underwater...
I've just heard him on the radio. He's utterly clueless, he thinks the USAF bombing solved the problem.
To be fair to him, he is from a long line of presidents who think that USAF bombing solves the problem. To a man with a hammer, all problems look like a nail.
We're not talking about the price of eggs, so job done.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
Lockdown.
Come on,
Why isn't this being seen in other countries ? Why is it disproportionately affecting women ? Why is it disproportionately affecting under 40s ?
Do we know it's not being seen in other countries?
Trends in disability have changed over the years. For example, Lakdawalla et al. (2004) reported, in the US, "Even as the elderly have become less disabled, reported disability has risen for younger Americans, especially those ages 30–49."
As for the UK in recent years, there has been a big rise since COVID-19. However, McCartney et al. (2025) blame austerity leading to greater poverty leading to worse mental health in young adults.
Ray-Chaudhuri & Waters (2024) identify mental health problems in the young as being a big driver in increasing PIPs. They write, "There is evidence that health is worsening among the population. But other possible – and as yet unconfirmed – hypotheses include the cost-of-living crisis, conditionality regimes and the shift towards telephone assessments." They note the impact of COVID-19, including knock-on effects on NHS waiting lists. They also note that household incomes falling in real terms may encourage more people to apply for benefits.
What they mean by conditionality regimes is that you are required to look for work if you are on universal credit by virtue of being unemployed. But as those requirements are tightened, that incentivises people to switch to PIP, which is not conditional on looking for work to the same degree.
A brilliantly referenced argument.
And one that many a manager in the private sector could raise an eyebrow at, and say, 'or perhaps there is mass swinging of the lead'.....
PIPs have gone up. My response to this putative private sector manager is to ask why the proportion of people swinging of the lead has gone up a lot. Why are people supposedly skiving more?
Word of mouth as people discover how easy it is to get a claim for 'free' money, so others copycat.
Yes some people need help. No, not all those getting it do.
The problem is that in giving so much cash to the latter, there's not much left for the former.
Being more generous to fewer people would be better for those who are genuinely in need, and better for taxpayers too.
But why is there more word of mouth than before?
I've not seen evidence that a high proportion of people getting PIP don't need help, aren't genuinely in need, and/or don't meet the existing strict rules.
Think of it as exponential growth. A new system was put in place, some claimed (including some legit, some not) and as people find out from those they know who've got it, others think "I should get that too".
Anecdotally I know people who've got it who should not. Reporting them won't fix the problem.
The issue is that compared to going out to work to get the money that's available, then going through the process is very rewarding, if you can play the system.
Lets say hypothetically it takes 40 hours to play the system to get £1000 PIP (round fictional numbers). 40 hours may sound like a lot, but that means that the pay-off is £25 per hour which is very rewarding.
If you work part-time minimum wage and claim UC too then your real marginal tax rate means that working extra hours means you only get £2 to take home if you work an extra hour. To get that same £1000 you'd need to do 500 hours of extra work.
40 hours of playing the system or 500 hours of work? Easy choice for some.
Some years ago for a few years Gordon Brown was offering free money to a huge number of middling households who didn't need it - the threshold was about 50 or 60K when that was a lot more than it is now. IIRC correctly it involved not much more than a single page of A4. The minimum you could get was about £500. Worth it for a few minutes work. But not a good plan.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
Why hope they disappoint in local govt ? That’s just partisan politics.
As a resident in a Reform council, and I didn’t vote for them, I really do hope they succeed here and do a good job. We’ve been let down by Labour and the coalition.
I’m sure it’s unrelated to Reform as we have a Labour PCC but our local Police force now actually do seem to be taking the issue of low level petty criminal damage and behaviour in our town centre seriously. Taking action and upping patrols.
At the time of the locals I was seriously considering Reform, and would have voted for them and not cared what people here thought. Ironic as the independent I voted for then joined them !! However the more I look at them nationally and their fleshing out of their policies the less impressed I am with them. It’s fine being NOTA. That only gets you part of the way.
Local government is on its knees, unable to perform basic and statutory functions with further growth both in their debt levels and budget deficits to come, which means further dismantling of basic and statutory functions.
Reform say that they will get rid of DEI officers and foreign flags. Uncover a horrendous scandal called accounting on Kent County Council. They have No Clue what they are doing.
It isn't about what I want and think. You can elect any councillor of any party you like and the maths stays the same - more cuts needed. They are going to disappoint because they are making promises they cannot deliver.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
lol calling a tax lawyer "far left"
It’s amusing, on here I have been labelled both far right and a leftie.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
lol calling a tax lawyer "far left"
It’s amusing, on here I have been labelled both far right and a leftie.
You swing both ways, so to speak?
Well I went to an all boys school that has a strong cricket tradition.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
They don't need to to gain seats - most of the seats in NW London and the city seats are straight fights Lab vs Con with Con very close in most of them in 2024 (Hendon, Barnet, Uxbridge, Chelsea, Kensington etc).
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
I'm only half joking when I talk about LabCon as a single political position. Two very different parties proffering largely the same policies. People moved off the Tories very strongly to Labour, and now find a new government with the old policies. Of course the Tories aren't benefitting from Labour being unpopular.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
In terms of seats under FPTP though the Tories would gain 6 London seats from Labour on that swing as Wooliedied posted earlier with Reform and the Independents each gaining 3 Labour seats in London
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
Why hope they disappoint in local govt ? That’s just partisan politics.
As a resident in a Reform council, and I didn’t vote for them, I really do hope they succeed here and do a good job. We’ve been let down by Labour and the coalition.
I’m sure it’s unrelated to Reform as we have a Labour PCC but our local Police force now actually do seem to be taking the issue of low level petty criminal damage and behaviour in our town centre seriously. Taking action and upping patrols.
At the time of the locals I was seriously considering Reform, and would have voted for them and not cared what people here thought. Ironic as the independent I voted for then joined them !! However the more I look at them nationally and their fleshing out of their policies the less impressed I am with them. It’s fine being NOTA. That only gets you part of the way.
Local government is on its knees, unable to perform basic and statutory functions with further growth both in their debt levels and budget deficits to come, which means further dismantling of basic and statutory functions.
Reform say that they will get rid of DEI officers and foreign flags. Uncover a horrendous scandal called accounting on Kent County Council. They have No Clue what they are doing.
It isn't about what I want and think. You can elect any councillor of any party you like and the maths stays the same - more cuts needed. They are going to disappoint because they are making promises they cannot deliver.
Well it is about what you want as you said ‘Let’s Hope’ rather than they’re bound to fail for the reasons you, I and many others have discussed with local govt and it is something I think there is rare unanimity on PB about.
As I’ve said before, prior to the locals, I discussed with the new leader of Durham council their plans to audit spend. He was very polite and courteous, more than other parties candidates, but my point was it would not do anything apart from make the auditors wealthy. It was a waste of time.
It’s like labours PPE Czar. Pointless gesture politics.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
They don't need to to gain seats - most of the seats in NW London and the city seats are straight fights Lab vs Con with Con very close in most of them in 2024 (Hendon, Barnet, Uxbridge, Chelsea, Kensington etc).
Yes, Kemi may be trounced in the UK overall on current polling but at least she can say her legacy as Tory leader is the Tories should regain Chelsea and Fulham, Kensington and Westminster and she has won back the uber posh vote
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
So what is your alternative, what would the Lib Dem’s do especially given this is the party who wants to waste billions on the WASPE women.
I love the idea that paying people their due pension is a "waste".
We're trying to use care as a wedge to crack open structural reforms. I have no doubt that I am way more radical in what I think than the leadership, then again I know there are a great many party members who are also pretty radical in our ideas. And remember that we set policy at conference. It isn't up to Davey...
I love the idea it’s a ‘due pension’ when it clearly isn’t, and that’s not even what the £10 Billion is for, and they’ve also lost every court case over it.
Legislation changed the state pension age for women in 1995.
The movement split between the back to 60 lot and those just after a shakedown of cash.
What the latterare after is compo for a failure of admin, a 30 month or so delay in sending a letter. The former some CEDAW stuff which may or may not happen.
My state pension age has changed twice. I’ve had no letter. I don’t feel entitled to anything as I bothered to keep myself informed.
I've mentioned before on here that the publicity at the time was certainly enough to inform me. As it happened I was the last year that wasn't affected, but if I could take notice the publicity was perfectly adequate. Generally speaking I don't take much notice of adverts.
And this is why I have a major problem with the Lib Dem’s. They’re as bad as reform in the sense they will say to people what they want to hear in order to get a vote without even considering the reality of it. Others did on WASPE to be fair. It hurt the Lib Dem’s on tuition fees. If they get into govt it will hurt them again.
Their parliamentary candidates didn’t even understand what the £10 billion being asked for was actually for. As we saw here, Rochdale thought it was ‘due pension’, and I’m sure many other Lib Dem’s did too.
I'm a Lib Dem and I do NOT support the Lib Dem WASPI policy. I can't find where this policy was agreed.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
In terms of seats under FPTP though the Tories would gain 6 London seats from Labour on that swing as Wooliedied posted earlier with Reform and the Independents each gaining 3 Labour seats in London
8 seats on the swing given, 9 if they take Bexleyheath and Crayford ahead of Reform Hendon, Chipping Barnet, Brent West, Uxbridge, Chelsea, Kensington, Finchley, Cities and a toss up in Bexleyheath
They'd probably lose Romford and Hornchurch to Reform at least though
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
Why hope they disappoint in local govt ? That’s just partisan politics.
As a resident in a Reform council, and I didn’t vote for them, I really do hope they succeed here and do a good job. We’ve been let down by Labour and the coalition.
I’m sure it’s unrelated to Reform as we have a Labour PCC but our local Police force now actually do seem to be taking the issue of low level petty criminal damage and behaviour in our town centre seriously. Taking action and upping patrols.
At the time of the locals I was seriously considering Reform, and would have voted for them and not cared what people here thought. Ironic as the independent I voted for then joined them !! However the more I look at them nationally and their fleshing out of their policies the less impressed I am with them. It’s fine being NOTA. That only gets you part of the way.
Local government is on its knees, unable to perform basic and statutory functions with further growth both in their debt levels and budget deficits to come, which means further dismantling of basic and statutory functions.
Reform say that they will get rid of DEI officers and foreign flags. Uncover a horrendous scandal called accounting on Kent County Council. They have No Clue what they are doing.
It isn't about what I want and think. You can elect any councillor of any party you like and the maths stays the same - more cuts needed. They are going to disappoint because they are making promises they cannot deliver.
Well it is about what you want as you said ‘Let’s Hope’ rather than they’re bound to fail for the reasons you, I and many others have discussed with local govt and it is something I think there is rare unanimity on PB about.
As I’ve said before, prior to the locals, I discussed with the new leader of Durham council their plans to audit spend. He was very polite and courteous, more than other parties candidates, but my point was it would not do anything apart from make the auditors wealthy. It was a waste of time.
It’s like labours PPE Czar. Pointless gesture politics.
Is the PPE Czar a role shared between Dougie and Michelle?
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
The Mad King decreed that the tide of war had stopped. Now his feet are underwater...
I've just heard him on the radio. He's utterly clueless, he thinks the USAF bombing solved the problem.
To be fair to him, he is from a long line of presidents who think that USAF bombing solves the problem. To a man with a hammer, all problems look like a nail.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
lol calling a tax lawyer "far left"
It’s amusing, on here I have been labelled both far right and a leftie.
You swing both ways, so to speak?
Well I went to an all boys school that has a strong cricket tradition.
Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
119 signatories on the amendment now, LDs, SNP, Greens take this over 200, Tories should be avoiding touching this with a ten foot pole, more signatories will surely follow
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
How many nappies did the Brexiteeers actually change ?
Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.
He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:
- in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax - If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare - At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers - Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression - Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations
That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending
Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
Ten years time. We gave birth to Brexit on January 31st, 2020
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
The Tories aren't really benefiting from the anti-Labour swing though? Labour down 11, with those 11 going to Reform, LDM and Green - I would argue that is everyone BUT the Tories benefiting from the anti-Labour swing?
I'm only half joking when I talk about LabCon as a single political position. Two very different parties proffering largely the same policies. People moved off the Tories very strongly to Labour, and now find a new government with the old policies. Of course the Tories aren't benefitting from Labour being unpopular.
Tories can only recover once they have a united position WRT to Reform. Are they radically Reformlite, or are they a serious middling party doing their best from the centre in a social democrat society? At the moment, being split, they are neither.
As things stand only two parties can form a government. One is social democrat, 'steady as she goes but we are in very tough times and need to have a 10+ year plan' the other is a unicorn trying to work out what a proper manifesto for actual government might look like.
Neither have a membership that understand money in more than small figures.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
What a childishly nihilistic position
We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.
I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
What a childishly nihilistic position
We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.
I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
I think almost everyone is in serious difficulties trying to get a line on the current situation. An awful lot of the commentary has gone a bit silent.
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
Why hope they disappoint in local govt ? That’s just partisan politics.
As a resident in a Reform council, and I didn’t vote for them, I really do hope they succeed here and do a good job. We’ve been let down by Labour and the coalition.
I’m sure it’s unrelated to Reform as we have a Labour PCC but our local Police force now actually do seem to be taking the issue of low level petty criminal damage and behaviour in our town centre seriously. Taking action and upping patrols.
At the time of the locals I was seriously considering Reform, and would have voted for them and not cared what people here thought. Ironic as the independent I voted for then joined them !! However the more I look at them nationally and their fleshing out of their policies the less impressed I am with them. It’s fine being NOTA. That only gets you part of the way.
Local government is on its knees, unable to perform basic and statutory functions with further growth both in their debt levels and budget deficits to come, which means further dismantling of basic and statutory functions.
Reform say that they will get rid of DEI officers and foreign flags. Uncover a horrendous scandal called accounting on Kent County Council. They have No Clue what they are doing.
It isn't about what I want and think. You can elect any councillor of any party you like and the maths stays the same - more cuts needed. They are going to disappoint because they are making promises they cannot deliver.
Well it is about what you want as you said ‘Let’s Hope’ rather than they’re bound to fail for the reasons you, I and many others have discussed with local govt and it is something I think there is rare unanimity on PB about.
As I’ve said before, prior to the locals, I discussed with the new leader of Durham council their plans to audit spend. He was very polite and courteous, more than other parties candidates, but my point was it would not do anything apart from make the auditors wealthy. It was a waste of time.
It’s like labours PPE Czar. Pointless gesture politics.
I hope that people come to realise they aren't the answer, not for somewhere like Durham CC to fail. As we both seem to agree, their policies are largely pointless.
Having promised a lot they will deliver little. Your audit as you raised being a prime example. Reform and especially Reform voters think councils are corrupt and wasteful. When they spend money on an audit that finds neither to be true, people will be disappointed.
The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion. Landslides lead to weak government
Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.
He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:
- in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax - If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare - At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers - Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression - Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations
That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending
Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression
Yes. This is actually a point made by some of the evolutionary psychologists that studied Duddies’ Branch
The hillbillies of the hollow might have been weird inbred freaks but their decision to go for welfare was entirely rational given the extremely limited options available. There was barely any work and what there was meant you had to go a long way away - to the newer Kentucky coalmines. Breaking your family
The previous mines had left the hollow so polluted agriculture barely worked. They couldn’t grow their own food, even if they tried (they gave up trying)
The only means to get money and get fed without destroying the entire community was welfare. So they made that rational choice: welfare
Trump's ended up with the perfect political positioning on the issue.
If the ceasefire holds, he gets credit as a peacemaker and if it doesn't, what can you do with two countries like them? The Iran hawks can't complain because he bombed the nuclear sites and the Israel haters will thank him for publicly criticising Israel.
Morning all. With WW3 postponed, its back to domestic policy for me as i was a bit wrong on the ME extent of war! 108 signatories on the reasoned amendment to PIP /UC, enough to defeat the govt if opposition back. Will labour pull the bill? If so Kendall surely must resign and how will the markets react if so?
Why must Kendall surely resign? Bills have been lost or abandoned in the past without triggering resignations or reshuffles.
The entire strategy of her department being ripped up because her own party reject it? Shed have no credibility to start over and come back with a new one. Plus, shes very clearly spent her career arguing for this including her run for leader
Shame on Kemi if she backs the opposition on this though, the Tories should humiliate Labour by getting Kendall's reforms through only with Tory votes.
I disagree, for personal reasons
What on earth is going on with PIP in the younger age groups: (Source IFS)
The chart looks completely mad. In particular the % growth in claims from 15-20 yr old women is bonkers.
May I drive you all even madder? A list of PIP awards by category and success. The notable one for me (and any long term PB contributor) is the 40% success rate for writer's cramp. More than whiplash.
Having been involved in applications for PIP, the applications process is rigorous and time-consuming (process state). But even hardened benefits people get caught out by some of the successful applications which you would consider a fail.
It's not the process, or the checks/balances all of which absorb a lot of costs. It's the legislation and the legislators who need to have a long, hard look at the current statutes which is what Labour are attempting to do here.
I need numbers of cases.
Perhaps 40% for writers cramp means there are only 5 cases, or that the people got it filling in a form to apply for PIP?
Some data here but you'd have to make an educated guess about writers cramp. Almost all applications are online so it would be RSI rather than writer's cramp for those injuries.
Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
Ten years time. We gave birth to Brexit on January 31st, 2020
So let’s reconvene on January 31st, 2030
After 9 straight years of the Starmerwave and unalloyed Starmer Brexit chaos, Sir Nigey turning it around in a few months is less than likely. N'est pas?
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Surely a pain au chocolat would be far more decadent??
Trump's ended up with the perfect political positioning on the issue.
If the ceasefire holds, he gets credit as a peacemaker and if it doesn't, what can you do with two countries like them? The Iran hawks can't complain because he bombed the nuclear sites and the Israel haters will thank him for publicly criticising Israel.
Maybe, until the first American is killed by either side
It hardly needs to be said, but if Biden had so visibly lost the plot and all self-control, CNN would already be melting its way through to the earth’s core.
The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion. Landslides lead to weak government
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
What a childishly nihilistic position
We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
I too hope that Trump gets a "triumph" to gloat about i.e. a ceasefire, but after this last bombing raid by Israel. I also hope that in the process Netanyahu loses Trump's support and is put back in his box, including his action in Gaza. It could be a win all round, except for Netanyahu. We'll soon see.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Except it is not pennies.
It is thousands of pounds of "free" money that people feel entitled to.
But it is not free.
A starter for 10. Assume that people who neither need nor deserve cash getting it lowers the amount of cash available for those who do need it, and do deserve it.
Here are the statistics for benefit fraud. Quite easy to find. Do you have a reputable source that would contradict these details? Or are you judging this heuristically.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
Ten years time. We gave birth to Brexit on January 31st, 2020
So let’s reconvene on January 31st, 2030
After 9 straight years of the Starmerwave and unalloyed Starmer Brexit chaos, Sir Nigey turning it around in a few months is less than likely. N'est pas?
A fair point
However an awful lot of “stuff” can happen in five years. Especially in the 2020s. As we all sadly know
What if most of Western Europe becomes far right and starts, say, mass deportations and brutal migration crackdowns amidst ethnic civil strife. This is far from impossible as things stand
Then Rejoining might seem like an appalling idea to many Remainers, and Brexit will suddenly seem like the best thing we ever did if you’re a liberal lefty
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
What a childishly nihilistic position
We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.
I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
TDS dictates that everything trump says and does is always wrong. You almost start to wonder if the main reason why trump flips between completely contradictory positions as quickly as he does, is to catch out the rank hypocrisy in so many people.
Would see Tories gain several seats, Reform make inroads and perhaps Greens make progress too, Lib Dems would easily hold their SW block of seats
Surprisingly good for the Conservatives. Far better than the national average.
Tories UP 0.4% on the 20.6% they got in London in 2024, Labour down 11% on the 43% they got last year, Reform only up 6% and still only in third.
London's distaste for Farage, high ethnic minority population and clear resistance to Reform means the Tories now benefit from the anti Labour swing in London if not the rest of the UK even if Labour still win London again overall
As much as London led the dip in Tory fortunes, it probably also saves them from utter wipeout in councils and MPs. They'd have something like 13 to 15 London MPs on this poll
They’d gain a few councils back too, surely ?
I guess Barnet, Wandsworth
, Westminster would be targeted?
By the USAF? That’s a bit of an overreaction surely?
The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion. Landslides lead to weak government
They’re going to cave, aren’t they?
If the Tories don't rescue them, yes, they have to or lose. Now would be the optimum moment for a cabinet resignation if anyone had designs........
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
Don't disagree. Can be a thing of beauty. But "delicious"?
I think most food critics would or should say "proper" or maybe "good" as in "the olives came with good bread..."
The rebellion against Labour could end up at between a third to almost half the parliamentary party, much bigger than the Iraq rebellion. Landslides lead to weak government
Phasma: "You always were scum!" Finn: "REBEL scum!"
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Surely a pain au chocolat would be far more decadent??
Always too difficult to get at the actual chocolate. Unless you squidge it down.
You almost start to wonder if the main reason why trump flips between completely contradictory positions as quickly as he does, is to catch out the rank hypocrisy in so many people.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
You sir are a purveyor of fake news. The truth is almond.
Perhaps not quite in the Hannan league but this also deserves a call out. What quiet bliss awaited us!
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
How many nappies did the Brexiteeers actually change ?
They replaced the Romanian nanny with 23 from Africa.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Re the benefits debate, remember the extraordinary degraded 1960s hillybilly primitives in Appalachia, that I discovered yesterday? Duddie’s Branch
Here’s how they related to welfare:
“Gazaway documented how residents of Duddies had developed elaborate systems for maximizing government assistance, treating welfare not as temporary aid but as a permanent economic strategy requiring careful cultivation.
“ Families shared information about eligibility requirements, helped each other navigate bureaucratic systems, and viewed successful welfare applications as achievements worthy of celebration. This adaptation to the welfare system represented a rational response to an environment where traditional economic opportunities had vanished, though Gazaway and other observers often interpreted it as evidence of cultural pathology.”
I heard a talk from Fraser Nelson a few weeks ago. The assumption is that welfare seekers are somehow feckless. It’s not true: they are rational economic maximisers like the rest of us.
He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:
- in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax - If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare - At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers - Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression - Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations
That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending
Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression
Yes. This is actually a point made by some of the evolutionary psychologists that studied Duddies’ Branch
The hillbillies of the hollow might have been weird inbred freaks but their decision to go for welfare was entirely rational given the extremely limited options available. There was barely any work and what there was meant you had to go a long way away - to the newer Kentucky coalmines. Breaking your family
The previous mines had left the hollow so polluted agriculture barely worked. They couldn’t grow their own food, even if they tried (they gave up trying)
The only means to get money and get fed without destroying the entire community was welfare. So they made that rational choice: welfare
And while you are pointing and laughing at the “weird inbreed freaks” (how many times do you need to repeat that?) more serious people are trying to fix the problem
I get the appeal, even the success as an electoral strategy, but given that it is fundamentally not true it doesn't seem like a stable base for Government.
People voted Brexit "cos there was nothing else they could do" and they hate it.
People voting RefUK are going to be at least as disappointed
Here is the simple truth. Reform have successfully tapped into the zeitgeist. So successfully that they now fuel and drive it.
If current trends continue then we are going to have a general election where c. 400 people are elected into government with no experience of what government is or how it works.
Much of their agenda will be swept away in the first few weeks - "we're going to scrap all the LTNs in our council" / there aren't any to begin with.
Beyond that I have little doubt that they can implement the more jingoistic parts of their agenda swiftly, but it won't shift the dial because migration isn't the real reason people are poor.
I've endlessly pointed out that poor voters are not thick. The Tories assumed they were, promised the moon on a stick and failed to even deliver a stick. They got turfed out.
What happens to Reform in government is that they rapidly disappoint an electorate who turn angry. Where do we go from there?
Either we get mainstream politicians going after the actual structural problems with actual structural reforms or we get Farage then Robinson...
By the time of the General Election they will have already disappointed in local govt.
I see Zia Yusuf is getting into an online spat with Dan Neidle who he labelled a ‘Far Left activist’ over the claims made about Reforms Non Dom plan.
I’m more inclined to believe Dan Neidle than Zia Yusuf on the exchange.
Suffice to say Yusuf is not coming out of it well.
It’s like he does not like being challenged.
Lets hope.
It's what happens to people when they lose hope that I worry about. They're not going to just accept "ah well, I'll accept my lot in life" as previous generations used to do.
Why hope they disappoint in local govt ? That’s just partisan politics.
As a resident in a Reform council, and I didn’t vote for them, I really do hope they succeed here and do a good job. We’ve been let down by Labour and the coalition.
I’m sure it’s unrelated to Reform as we have a Labour PCC but our local Police force now actually do seem to be taking the issue of low level petty criminal damage and behaviour in our town centre seriously. Taking action and upping patrols.
At the time of the locals I was seriously considering Reform, and would have voted for them and not cared what people here thought. Ironic as the independent I voted for then joined them !! However the more I look at them nationally and their fleshing out of their policies the less impressed I am with them. It’s fine being NOTA. That only gets you part of the way.
Local government is on its knees, unable to perform basic and statutory functions with further growth both in their debt levels and budget deficits to come, which means further dismantling of basic and statutory functions.
Reform say that they will get rid of DEI officers and foreign flags. Uncover a horrendous scandal called accounting on Kent County Council. They have No Clue what they are doing.
It isn't about what I want and think. You can elect any councillor of any party you like and the maths stays the same - more cuts needed. They are going to disappoint because they are making promises they cannot deliver.
Well it is about what you want as you said ‘Let’s Hope’ rather than they’re bound to fail for the reasons you, I and many others have discussed with local govt and it is something I think there is rare unanimity on PB about.
As I’ve said before, prior to the locals, I discussed with the new leader of Durham council their plans to audit spend. He was very polite and courteous, more than other parties candidates, but my point was it would not do anything apart from make the auditors wealthy. It was a waste of time.
It’s like labours PPE Czar. Pointless gesture politics.
I hope that people come to realise they aren't the answer, not for somewhere like Durham CC to fail. As we both seem to agree, their policies are largely pointless.
Having promised a lot they will deliver little. Your audit as you raised being a prime example. Reform and especially Reform voters think councils are corrupt and wasteful. When they spend money on an audit that finds neither to be true, people will be disappointed.
I do think councils are wasteful, I don’t think they’re corrupt. But I do think, like with a large business, the waste is massively overstated. It will be pennies rather than pounds.
If the Iranian regime agreed to such a humiliating ceasefire then they must be in an incredibly weak position. It makes no sense for Israel to stop now, when it has a chance to deliver a 'killing blow' & finish off the regime for good & permanently end the threat.
Now a very odd ceasefire period starts. Per President Trump, Israel now has 12 hours where it can strike Iran, but Iran cannot strike back.
I am hugely sympathetic with the Labour rebels - from their perspective this is what *Tory* governments do and they have spent their formative political years opposing. And now here they are, elected as an MP, a *Labour* MP being told to vote for the worst kind of kick the sick Tory policy.
The person I blame is Lizzzzzzz Kendal. She's right in that the welfare system is broken and unsustainable. She's wrong that there is a viable solution where you just cut a few people off and say job done.
We need far more significant reforms to the system than this. Liz and the rest of the cabinet are absolutely frit.
The original sin of the Cameron government as I put it was failing to pivot from austerity to meaningful public service reform in around 2012. Austerity only ever works as quick win salami slicing to buy time with the markets for the meaningful reform. A reform agenda was pursued by Cameron, but he left it with enthusiasts and didn't much care for it.
We are getting to the stage of this Labour government where those same pivots are starting to come into focus - as a microcosm, what to do with winter fuel longer term etc. Kendall's cuts at this stage still look as much like austerity as meaningful reform.
I am going to continue to bang the same drum - the structure is the issue, not the amount being spent. We're spending more and getting less. I wholly agree on the need to cut the welfare budget but you do that by making it far more efficient and actually supporting people into work.
A starter for 10. Assume that the people humiliating and prostrating themselves for pennies are not scroungers. We spent vast amounts on the premise that they are all cheats - notorious humiliating gotcha assessments to see if that leg has grown back or you've got over your Cerebral Palsy. Scrap all that as a start.
Except it is not pennies.
It is thousands of pounds of "free" money that people feel entitled to.
But it is not free.
A starter for 10. Assume that people who neither need nor deserve cash getting it lowers the amount of cash available for those who do need it, and do deserve it.
Here are the statistics for benefit fraud. Quite easy to find. Do you have a reputable source that would contradict these details? Or are you judging this heuristically.
The difficulty is not fraud; it is people who are entitled to payments, but who should not be.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
I hope Netanyahu ignores Trump and thereby totally loses US support.
What a childishly nihilistic position
We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
It has been rather instructive listening to some of the takes on these developments. I think Trump is bonkers, but the same people criticising him for trying for a ceasefire were criticising him a day or so back for the rush to war.
I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
TDS dictates that everything trump says and does is always wrong. You almost start to wonder if the main reason why trump flips between completely contradictory positions as quickly as he does, is to catch out the rank hypocrisy in so many people.
The flip-flopping just demonstrates the point that he IS wrong. Trump says Position A and then the directly contradictory Position B.
A or B might be correct. But as he also said B or A with just as much conviction as he said A or B then he doesn't believe a damned thing he's saying.
I have no problem with people who hold right wing political perspectives. But Trump isn't an asset to you because he's a global laughing stock. The people laughing at Trump laugh even harder at the people who try to defend or rationalise the clown.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
You sir are a purveyor of fake news. The truth is almond.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
At least 4 Israelis have died in the latest missile attack from Iran.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
You sir are a purveyor of fake news. The truth is almond.
The best pastry is the freshest one to go with your morning coffee. A frangipan pasty can indeed be a delight, though.
Falmouth is really quite seductive as a place to while away the final scenes of life. Sitting in the Gylly Beach Cafe with tremendous coffee and a delicious pain au raisin, staring at the beautiful sea and also surprisingly cute waitresses
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
Can a pain au raisin really be "delicious"? You're the food critic but it seems to strike a wrong note.
Done well, a pain au raisin is the best pastry.
You sir are a purveyor of fake news. The truth is almond.
The best pastry is the freshest one to go with your morning coffee. A frangipan pasty can indeed be a delight, though.
Comments
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0623/1519905-brexit-the-stupidest-thing-any-country-has-ever-done/
Their parliamentary candidates didn’t even understand what the £10 billion being asked for was actually for. As we saw here, Rochdale thought it was ‘due pension’, and I’m sure many other Lib Dem’s did too.
Vance will be delighted. He made it clear in his address the bombing was a one off. Irrespective of what Trump does next that’s a line he can stick with and he can use this to good effect.
Reform say that they will get rid of DEI officers and foreign flags. Uncover a horrendous scandal called accounting on Kent County Council. They have No Clue what they are doing.
It isn't about what I want and think. You can elect any councillor of any party you like and the maths stays the same - more cuts needed. They are going to disappoint because they are making promises they cannot deliver.
No matter what Trump says, it'll be very hard for the Israeli government to ignore this & agree to Trump's demand for an immediate ceasefire.
At least four people were killed in southern Israel when a ballistic missile fired from Iran hit an apartment block before the two countries confirmed that they had agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, according to the Israeli authorities.
The missile was one of about 20 fired in at least four barrages across the country in the hours surrounding the truce that was first announced by President Trump, according to Israeli officials. The Israeli military also said it struck missile launchers in western Iran that were poised to fire at Israel and had intercepted at least 15 drones that Iran launched overnight.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/world/middleeast/israel-iran-beersheba-strike.html?smid=url-share
https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/news/brexit/has-lord-hannan-forgotten-his-2016-vision-of-post-brexit-britain/
As I’ve said before, prior to the locals, I discussed with the new leader of Durham council their plans to audit spend. He was very polite and courteous, more than other parties candidates, but my point was it would not do anything apart from make the auditors wealthy. It was a waste of time.
It’s like labours PPE Czar. Pointless gesture politics.
I can't find where this policy was agreed.
Hendon, Chipping Barnet, Brent West, Uxbridge, Chelsea, Kensington, Finchley, Cities and a toss up in Bexleyheath
They'd probably lose Romford and Hornchurch to Reform at least though
"How many days did the 2025 '12 Days War' between Israel and Iran last ?"
Israeli Broadcasting Authority: After Trump's conversation with Netanyahu, a symbolic target in Iran was attacked.
Iranian media: Two explosions heard in the capital, Tehran.
https://iran.liveuamap.com/
Air defenses activated in Bagher Strait near Babolsar
Explosion was heard in Qaemshahr
https://iran.liveuamap.com/
But lastly, cheer up. In the end, no matter how bad the depressions, or how annoying the nappies, very few people regret becoming a parent. It will be the same for Brexit. In ten years’ time we’ll look through the kitchen window of renewed prosperity, watch the laughing Remainers playing football with our smiling Brexit child, and we’ll quietly sip tea from a Union Jack mug, and we’ll think: best thing I ever did.
They look decidedly scratchy to me.
It could all fall to pieces in the couple of overs after lunch.
I could be like Dirk Bogarde in Death In Venice but it will be Gyllyngvase Beach rather than the Venetian Lido. And I’m not Dirk Bogarde. And I’m not gay
But still
He gave an example of a woman in her 30s. Child of 11. Lives on a really bad estate. She is frustrated by not having a job. However:
- in order to get a job she would need to earn the equivalent of £40k pre-tax
- If she gives up her welfare and the job doesn’t work out then it will take her several months to get back on welfare
- At the moment she can be home when her kid gets back from school, help him do his homework and keep him from mixing with troublemakers
- Realistically the only job she would be likely to get is a minimum wage inherently unstable job. Probably a dead end in terms of career progression
- Her assessment is that although she wants a job the costs and the risks are high and the potential upside low. Consequently the rational decision for her (and I agree) is to remain on welfare despite her personal frustrations
That is the system we need to solve. It’s not easy but it was what IDS was trying to do with UC before Osborne used it as an excuse to cut welfare spending
Basically you need to make sure that work always pays meaningfully more than welfare and that there are robust social systems in place to eg take care of the kids and that there is an opportunity for career progression
We all need Trump’s ceasefire to work. Even if that means Trump gets a “triumph” to gloat about
So let’s reconvene on January 31st, 2030
As things stand only two parties can form a government. One is social democrat, 'steady as she goes but we are in very tough times and need to have a 10+ year plan' the other is a unicorn trying to work out what a proper manifesto for actual government might look like.
Neither have a membership that understand money in more than small figures.
Russians are daily trying to make Ukraine unliveable
https://x.com/nastasiaKlimash/status/1937463871519793280
I get it, the guy is a spanner. But there’s more at stake here than just how bad Trump is.
Having promised a lot they will deliver little. Your audit as you raised being a prime example. Reform and especially Reform voters think councils are corrupt and wasteful. When they spend money on an audit that finds neither to be true, people will be disappointed.
Landslides lead to weak government
The hillbillies of the hollow might have been weird inbred freaks but their decision to go for welfare was entirely rational given the extremely limited options available. There was barely any work and what there was meant you had to go a long way away - to the newer Kentucky coalmines. Breaking your family
The previous mines had left the hollow so polluted agriculture barely worked. They couldn’t grow their own food, even if they tried (they gave up trying)
The only means to get money and get fed without destroying the entire community was welfare. So they made that rational choice: welfare
If the ceasefire holds, he gets credit as a peacemaker and if it doesn't, what can you do with two countries like them? The Iran hawks can't complain because he bombed the nuclear sites and the Israel haters will thank him for publicly criticising Israel.
It hardly needs to be said, but if Biden had so visibly lost the plot and all self-control, CNN would already be melting its way through to the earth’s core.
https://bsky.app/profile/timoconnorbl.bsky.social/post/3lse2hekhxs2n
I also hope that in the process Netanyahu loses Trump's support and is put back in his box, including his action in Gaza.
It could be a win all round, except for Netanyahu.
We'll soon see.
However an awful lot of “stuff” can happen in five years. Especially in the 2020s. As we all sadly know
What if most of Western Europe becomes far right and starts, say, mass deportations and brutal migration crackdowns amidst ethnic civil strife. This is far from impossible as things stand
Then Rejoining might seem like an appalling idea to many Remainers, and Brexit will suddenly seem like the best thing we ever did if you’re a liberal lefty
Now would be the optimum moment for a cabinet resignation if anyone had designs........
I think most food critics would or should say "proper" or maybe "good" as in "the olives came with good bread..."
Finn: "REBEL scum!"
He's fucking nuts
Will Israel bomb it ?
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1937487678427050333?s=61
A or B might be correct. But as he also said B or A with just as much conviction as he said A or B then he doesn't believe a damned thing he's saying.
I have no problem with people who hold right wing political perspectives. But Trump isn't an asset to you because he's a global laughing stock. The people laughing at Trump laugh even harder at the people who try to defend or rationalise the clown.
Many here hoped working class communities would suffer widespread hardship and job losses for daring to support Brexit.
Even to the extent of being delighted the company in Gateshead who made passports ended up closing due to the passport contract going to France.
@annmarie
Trump says regime change creates “chaos,” speaking to reporters on Air Force One on his way to the NATO summit.
“We don’t want to see so much chaos.”
A frangipan pasty can indeed be a delight, though.
Implies regime change, parties agree ceasefire, says how regime change is dreadful as in please don't make me do it.
What a president.
I read pastry as pasty.
What a twit.