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If today you’re confidently predicting the next general election result… – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,961
    ...
    Musk is a...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,153

    Former US President Joe Biden has signed with a Los Angeles talent agency - marking a significant step in shaping his post-presidency career.

    The signing marks a reunion with Creative Artists Agency (CAA), which previously represented him from 2017 to 2020.

    Didn't realise it was April 1st.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,848
    algarkirk said:

    One day, don't know when, the old formula that USA dollar is a reserve currency so it doesn't matter how much debt it has and can always borrow/print a few quadrillion more (eg to create a sovereign wealth fund out of money it doesn't possess) will be found to have a subtle fatal flaw in it. I can't imagine what it might be but there will be one.
    One flaw might be that BRICS countries stop using the dollar for trade between themselves, which is why Trump panicked the other day.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,848
    glw said:

    Trump signs order to create sovereign wealth fund that could buy TikTok

    Clearly a more important thing to do than international aid programmes or having an education department.

    Will this sovereign wealth fund invest in crypto? Like, say, Trump and Tesla have done. If so then cui bono?
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 258
    MattW said:

    Ooof. Sorry.

    £55-70 per head is a lot for an 80s recreation.

    That's in the same price range as a fixed price or tasting menu at the Veeraswamy. Probably including wine.

    https://www.veeraswamy.com/menu/
    I went there for my birthday last year. Trust me, it's good.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,972

    Still not happening.

    I wouldn’t be so sure.
    The case is making itself, as is evident from the polling, and a hung parliament might make it the price of coalition.

    You’re right that it’s unlikely to be brought in by a giver meant which gets a majority with 30% of the vote (which will claim a clear mandate).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,972

    Will this sovereign wealth fund invest in crypto? Like, say, Trump and Tesla have done. If so then cui bono?
    Nemo.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,972
    edited February 4
    Without Brexit, might some of this have happened ?

    In 2016 we were still Northern Powerhousing. George Osborne was hi vizzed. We were building a new motorway from Manchester to Sheffield. We were HS3'ing it from Leeds to Manchester. We were widening the M62. All scrapped I think. And now we can't even keep the road open for sure.
    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/1886492398030569623

    What’s unarguable is that Brexit has delivered precisely nothing for the North.
    Other than a brief sugar rush for those who backed it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    El Salvador offers to house US prisoners.

    https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1886606794614587573
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067

    El Salvador offers to house US prisoners.

    https://x.com/nayibbukele/status/1886606794614587573

    And yet they offer nothing for the US homeless.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,972
    Decent article laying out the probabilities.

    Is Trump’s trade war with Mexico and Canada over?
    Why the tariffs might — and might not — still happen.
    https://www.vox.com/politics/398024/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-trudeau-sheinbaum-trade-war

    How will all the tariff fans feel about all this if it turns out the whole thing was no more than a bluff ?
    Disappointed ? Or will they switch seamlessly to supporting the non imposition ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,972
    edited February 4
    France will double its military defense budget, securing new innovative projects, French President Macron said
    https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1886410258714706093

    Perhaps also recognising that there’s a decent business opportunity for supplying weapons to those who no longer trust the US as a reliable ally ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,848
    Nigelb said:

    Decent article laying out the probabilities.

    Is Trump’s trade war with Mexico and Canada over?
    Why the tariffs might — and might not — still happen.
    https://www.vox.com/politics/398024/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-trudeau-sheinbaum-trade-war

    How will all the tariff fans feel about all this if it turns out the whole thing was no more than a bluff ?
    Disappointed ? Or will they switch seamlessly to supporting the non imposition ?

    As I said the other day, Trump uses tariffs to force compliance as well as for more usual purposes, and it seems to have worked.

    When it comes to trade wars, it is possible Trump has been talked down by Musk and Fox News, or was spooked by the sharp falls in crypto and on Wall Street.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 624
    Definitely not a cult.



  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,994
    edited February 4
    Nigelb said:

    It’s like trying to teach the tone deaf to sing.
    Not completely impossible, but a very tough gig, and they’re never going to sing well.
    It's not just a question of the voice, it's the lack of sincerity and the bullshit that emanates. Consider what Starmer said before and after the Election .. that's why noone trusts him. It's just come much earlier to him than it did Blair.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    Nigelb said:

    France will double its military defense budget, securing new innovative projects, French President Macron said
    https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1886410258714706093

    Perhaps also recognising that there’s a decent business opportunity for supplying weapons to those who no longer trust the US as a reliable ally ?

    I wonder what he's going to use for money given the state's broke and there is no government ?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,060

    As I said the other day, Trump uses tariffs to force compliance as well as for more usual purposes, and it seems to have worked.

    When it comes to trade wars, it is possible Trump has been talked down by Musk and Fox News, or was spooked by the sharp falls in crypto and on Wall Street.
    I think it was more Mr Market having a word in Trump’s ear than Musk. I like to think that someday soon all the Occupy Wall Street loons and masses anti-capitalists will be thanking Wall Street and co for being the only break on Trump’s policies that he will take notice of.

    Now if we can only get them to tell Trump that Tulsi Gabbard will cause a US property price crash we are good.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005

    As I said the other day, Trump uses tariffs to force compliance as well as for more usual purposes, and it seems to have worked.

    When it comes to trade wars, it is possible Trump has been talked down by Musk and Fox News, or was spooked by the sharp falls in crypto and on Wall Street.
    Has it 'worked' or have Canada and Mexico come up with or brought forward stuff they were doing anyway to tackle non-existent or more complex problems and packaged it in a way that makes Trump think he has a win. Canada appear to have just appointed a 'Fentanyl Tsar' to tackle the problem of just 59 pounds of the stuff that was smuggled to the US over the past 3 years. Such a large amount it could be one person doing it.

    Meanwhile Mexico has said it is moving 10,000 troops to the US border - but given the Mexican government is incredibly angry about guns coming from the US into Mexico the other way - what's the betting they spend their time stopping that?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,462
    Nigelb said:

    France will double its military defense budget, securing new innovative projects, French President Macron said
    https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1886410258714706093

    Perhaps also recognising that there’s a decent business opportunity for supplying weapons to those who no longer trust the US as a reliable ally ?

    Why would anybody take that posturing Froggy dwarf seriously when he's on his way out and can't even pass a budget containing the current level of defence expenditure?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    NTSB investigation update on the plane crash in Washington DC.

    https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/DCA25MA108.aspx
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    MJW said:

    Has it 'worked' or have Canada and Mexico come up with or brought forward stuff they were doing anyway to tackle non-existent or more complex problems and packaged it in a way that makes Trump think he has a win. Canada appear to have just appointed a 'Fentanyl Tsar' to tackle the problem of just 59 pounds of the stuff that was smuggled to the US over the past 3 years. Such a large amount it could be one person doing it.

    Meanwhile Mexico has said it is moving 10,000 troops to the US border - but given the Mexican government is incredibly angry about guns coming from the US into Mexico the other way - what's the betting they spend their time stopping that?
    It’s easy enough to announce 10k troops to stop the cartels but then keep them safely in the barracks doing nothing. I’d see the last 48hrs as a shot across the bow to make Mexico’s govt think twice about performative action. I imagine we will see similar wrt the EU and announced (but not yet delivered) defence spending.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,122
    Sandpit said:

    NTSB investigation update on the plane crash in Washington DC.

    https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/DCA25MA108.aspx

    My guess for the root cause is simple and obvious: allowing flightpaths that conflict in that manner, controlled only by sight from one aircraft to another. Especially at night.

    It was an accident waiting to happen.

    There will be many other causal factors; and the usual idiots will jump on whichever one best fits their worldview ("Oh my god! A female pilot!!!"). But the main one will be that those flightpaths were allowed.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,848
    MJW said:

    Has it 'worked' or have Canada and Mexico come up with or brought forward stuff they were doing anyway to tackle non-existent or more complex problems and packaged it in a way that makes Trump think he has a win. Canada appear to have just appointed a 'Fentanyl Tsar' to tackle the problem of just 59 pounds of the stuff that was smuggled to the US over the past 3 years. Such a large amount it could be one person doing it.

    Meanwhile Mexico has said it is moving 10,000 troops to the US border - but given the Mexican government is incredibly angry about guns coming from the US into Mexico the other way - what's the betting they spend their time stopping that?
    Yes, it worked – or ‘worked’ – even if the same or better results could not have come from standard diplomacy or even a quick phone call. Think of Jim Hacker measuring success by counting newspaper stories.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,223
    Andy_JS said:

    The only time my family used to eat out in the 80s was at a Berni Inn, about 4 or 5 times a year as I recall. You'd normally have a sirloin steak or chicken and chips, followed by a ice cream sundae with an umbrella sticking out of it.
    Back then (or a bit earlier) my favourite hotels for eat out would be either the Savoy in Nottingham, where they laid out the cutlery after you sat down from holding it a towel, which seemed posh - or the Nant Hall Hotel along the coast from Prestatyn, which was very plush.

    The other one was at Barlborough, but I'm not sure if I could find that again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,087
    Battlebus said:

    Definitely not a cult.



    So many people having surreal fat finger moments when trying to type an 'n'.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,204
    viewcode said:

    ...
    Musk is a...

    The latest Banksy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,204
    The Environmental movement is eating itself.

    Peak,Guardian this.

    The movement is too,white

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/03/environmental-groups-in-uk-still-very-white-especially-at-the-top
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967

    My guess for the root cause is simple and obvious: allowing flightpaths that conflict in that manner, controlled only by sight from one aircraft to another. Especially at night.

    It was an accident waiting to happen.

    There will be many other causal factors; and the usual idiots will jump on whichever one best fits their worldview ("Oh my god! A female pilot!!!"). But the main one will be that those flightpaths were allowed.
    Probably. Although there is supposed to be altitude separation - and back in my days of flying in FAA airspace, they were always red hot in making sure that on transits like that, you stuck to your assigned altitude. The question is why the military helicopter was so sloppy (or deliberately chose to cut a corner, according to choice) and ended up above where it was supposed to be.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    kinabalu said:

    Who've we got on there then?
    Just Freddy Gray and some guests, often Americans from America.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Battlebus said:

    Definitely not a cult.



    Err, that’s the Florida Panthers, championship-winning ice hockey team, who turned up all dressed like Trump for a pisstake.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-champion-florida-panthers-honored-at-the-white-house
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,223
    biggles said:

    Yup. Trump has signalled his support for domestic manufacturing and his opponents can be characterised as being against it. We all know that’s bollocks but it’s the game he’s playing. If you want to beat him, you have to actually have a plan for the poor sods who lost out (and they did lose out) to globalisation.
    One thing I wonder (speculating, probably) is whether Trump's attitude to Taiwan is coloured by the pivot of TSMC to invest heavily in the USA - in which his 1st term rhetoric had a part in triggering.

    Perhaps he thinks he does not need Taiwan as much, now? It would be something of a fit with Trump's bugger-thy-neighbour trade policies.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,233
    IanB2 said:

    Probably. Although there is supposed to be altitude separation - and back in my days of flying in FAA airspace, they were always red hot in making sure that on transits like that, you stuck to your assigned altitude. The question is why the military helicopter was so sloppy (or deliberately chose to cut a corner, according to choice) and ended up above where it was supposed to be.
    FAA have no jurisdiction over military flights. When I was on my USN exchange we used to follow ATC guidance where possible but we always had the option, and sometimes exercised it, of telling ATC we would assume responsibility for our own separation and deconfliction. Sometimes we didn't even bother telling them and just did it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,223
    edited February 4

    Since you are discussing crime, here's a little hint: 'Elaine Kamark of the Harvard Kennedy School and William Galston of the University of Maryland and Brookings Institution, agree with Moynihan. Writing for the Progressive Policy Institute in 1990, they say "The relationship [between crime and single-parent families, which are typically fatherless families] is so strong that controlling for family configuration erases the relationship between race and crime and between low income and crime. The relationship shows up time and again in the literature."'
    source: The War Against Boys (new and revised edition) by Christina Hoff Sommers, p. 120.

    So, if you see a teenage boy walking toward you, worry more about whether he has a father in his life than whether has a pocket knife.

    (I have not seen any data, or even any reporting on this, but I think it likely that few of Jeffrey Epstein's victims had fathers in their lives. Daughters need fathers, too.)

    I wonder if the same is true of Trump's and his friend's victims?
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/14/teen-models-powerful-men-when-donald-trump-hosted-look-of-the-year

    This was Melania's route in aiui.

    (Mar-a-Lago was one of Epstein's recruiting grounds.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Dura_Ace said:

    FAA have no jurisdiction over military flights. When I was on my USN exchange we used to follow ATC guidance where possible but we always had the option, and sometimes exercised it, of telling ATC we would assume responsibility for our own separation and deconfliction. Sometimes we didn't even bother telling them and just did it.
    Yes, but if you say you’ll maintain responsibility for your own separation and deconfliction, and then have a mid-air with a civilian aircraft…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,972
    MattW said:

    One thing I wonder (speculating, probably) is whether Trump's attitude to Taiwan is coloured by the pivot of TSMC to invest heavily in the USA - in which his 1st term rhetoric had a part in triggering.

    Perhaps he thinks he does not need Taiwan as much, now? It would be something of a fit with Trump's bugger-thy-neighbour trade policies.
    In which case he's ignorant.

    It would be a good decade, if then, to replicate TSMC's capacity in the US.

    And handing it to China economically disastrous for the US.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 624
    Sandpit said:

    Err, that’s the Florida Panthers, championship-winning ice hockey team, who turned up all dressed like Trump for a pisstake.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-champion-florida-panthers-honored-at-the-white-house
    It's also trolling by Trump.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Cup
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    ..

    On latest figures, there are 244 knife homicides per year in the UK. That's one of the lowest rates in the whole world (per capita). It's half the rate they have in Germany, and a third of the rate they have in the Netherlands. The rate is five times higher in Puerto Rico and nearly seven times higher in the US. It's about eight times higher in Romania. Maybe it's worth reflecting that, while each such death is a tragedy, we are doing well overall as a nation.
    I blame Amazon for all the under 18 machete sales.
  • NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    Amused by our Mr G’s reluctance overnight to recognise that the Daily Mail just might have been feeding him spin in place of news!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    edited February 4
    ..
    MattW said:

    I've just been listening to a couple of the recommended Spectator Americano podcasts.

    TBH so far it's basically Freddie Gray sucking off Trump spokespeople.

    Obsequious interviews with soft questions, and not even challenging obvious BS. Listening to a chap talking about Colombia, it's almost like a reprise of Oliver North.

    I'll listen to a couple more and comment in a day or
    I don't know if you've ever watched a podcast before, but you don't usually see the host give their guest a Paxman style grilling to get 'gotcha' moments - usually they want to know what that person has to say.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, but if you say you’ll maintain responsibility for your own separation and deconfliction, and then have a mid-air with a civilian aircraft…
    Unless they are on an active mission, within controlled airspace military aircraft would be expected to communicate with and comply with any instructions from ATC. Most military flights take place in uncontrolled airspace, but the DC base is an exception since their main task appears to be flying top American politicians around town.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,393
    viewcode said:

    I don't think that works. "Deliverism" did not produce votes in 2024. The Dems have instead to construct coalitions by bringing disparate groups of voters onto their side. The obvious example is the unions, who were split, and any Dem party that has lost the unions cannot win. The Dems tried identity politics but - whoops - the Hispanics went to the Reps. What groups of people can the Dems assemble to get to 50%+1, and how?
    The Dems won the Hispanic vote, just by less than they had 4 years before.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,813
    edited February 4

    Not to the Cult!

    They see, in their minds eye, Mexican soldiers lining the border and stopping that fentanyl in its tracks.
    Hmm. Why would Mexico want to deploy an army on the border of its aggressive and unpredictable neighbour?

    We're in Brer Rabbit territory when Trump considers this a concession.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,122
    IanB2 said:

    Probably. Although there is supposed to be altitude separation - and back in my days of flying in FAA airspace, they were always red hot in making sure that on transits like that, you stuck to your assigned altitude. The question is why the military helicopter was so sloppy (or deliberately chose to cut a corner, according to choice) and ended up above where it was supposed to be.
    The question is whether you can rely on manual altitude separation to a granularity of a hundred feet or so in a congested environment, and especially on the glide path to a runway.

    It's interesting that they've already shut off the flight path the helicopter was on, and a similar one...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,813

    The Dems won the Hispanic vote, just by less than they had 4 years before.
    The Democrats do need a pause for reflection, but this is way overegged. They lost by less than 1% of the vote, not a landslide.

    While most MAGA are cultists, there will be some that think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    My guess for the root cause is simple and obvious: allowing flightpaths that conflict in that manner, controlled only by sight from one aircraft to another. Especially at night.

    It was an accident waiting to happen.

    There will be many other causal factors; and the usual idiots will jump on whichever one best fits their worldview ("Oh my god! A female pilot!!!"). But the main one will be that those flightpaths were allowed.
    I haven’t seen it mentioned, but Night Vision Goggles have a long history of involvement in accidents - they tend to screw up things like depth perception.

    The modern ones are better, but one reason they train a lot with them, is to learn to deal with it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,122

    I haven’t seen it mentioned, but Night Vision Goggles have a long history of involvement in accidents - they tend to screw up things like depth perception.

    The modern ones are better, but one reason they train a lot with them, is to learn to deal with it.
    Blancalirio and another Youtuber have mentioned potential role of NVGs in the accident; the NTSB have also talked about them in their briefings. Currently they don't know if the crew were wearing them or not at the time of the accident.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,223
    edited February 4
    HYUFD said:

    31% don't.

    40% of Reform voters don't to just 31% for

    https://news.sky.com/story/reform-uk-tops-landmark-poll-for-first-time-13302531
    I think seeing reports on the activities of Suella Braverman at Heritage Foundation (could be NATCON 2025), she is reaching for language around 'UK has imported fifth column's, and 'UK has become Islamist', and is hanging out with Lozza Fox.

    She's playing into the Republican Maga fairy stories favoured by the likes of JD Vance and Elon Musk.

    Reform UK know they have a problem with their extreme radical right faction, and attempted entryism by the likes of the Patriotic Alternative and similar groups.

    I think Braverman may be too toxic for them, if they wish to broaden their appeal. She could end up with a party such as Reclaim, not Ref UK.

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1884551584908030220

    Kemi needs to un-Kaze her party PDQ.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,223
    edited February 4

    ..

    I don't know if you've ever watched a podcast before, but you don't usually see the host give their guest a Paxman style grilling to get 'gotcha' moments - usually they want to know what that person has to say.
    It doesn't matter what form of programme it is, if an interviewee is spewing fairy stories it is incumbent upon the interviewer to question them - otherwise it is a prompted speech not an interview. I think that what is going on is that the people in the Spectator ecosystem want to promote a Republican Right / Trumpist line - but I want to listen to a few more before making a case for that.

    As it happens, I made my first podcast in early September 2004, around one month after Adam Curry had coined the term - not long after the concept of attaching audio to an RSS feed had been exploited.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Podcast

    At that time we wrote our own software to create the RSS 2.0 feeds.

    The questioning of nonsense is a matter of professionalism, not form. In the early days of podcasting the best guidance on that came from a Canadian broadcaster / internetter called Tod Maffin.

    (Tod Maffin: https://bsky.app/profile/todmaffin.com)

    I was doing video podcasts (aka vodcasts) from early 2005, but it was hard work in those days, as the hardware was not really up to it and the software quite expensive on a PC.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,965
    ...
    Nigelb said:

    Without Brexit, might some of this have happened ?

    In 2016 we were still Northern Powerhousing. George Osborne was hi vizzed. We were building a new motorway from Manchester to Sheffield. We were HS3'ing it from Leeds to Manchester. We were widening the M62. All scrapped I think. And now we can't even keep the road open for sure.
    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/1886492398030569623

    What’s unarguable is that Brexit has delivered precisely nothing for the North.
    Other than a brief sugar rush for those who backed it.

    Immediately after the Referendum BBC Wales interviewed a Leaver on the Heads of the Valleys road near Ebbw Vale. The Leaver posed the question "what did the EU ever do for me?" Behind him was a genuinely enormous sign explaining in great detail that the road had been turned into a dual carriageway with EU funding. Although despite the sign he had a point.

    It is true in France EU funding created Norman Foster's viaduct at Milau, whilst in Britain every seaside town had a lovely new promenade until the council or British Gas dug it up for remedial work.
This discussion has been closed.