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If today you’re confidently predicting the next general election result… – politicalbetting.com
If today you’re confidently predicting the next general election result… – politicalbetting.com
?Trying to predict the next General Election is a fools game – in the last Parliament the Tories ranged as high as 55% as low as 18%, with the electorate so volatile and the parties so split it's not impossible to imagine any of Starmer, Badenoch or Farage as PM come 2029.
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Three or four years of age obviously too young for vaping, they get their first one when they turn five.
* not the newbie Reform lot.
Tim Hayward"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-you-still-afford-to-eat-out/?homepage-tracking=high_density-article-1
Yes, at Wetherspoons.
So - None of the Above.
The ensuing couple of hours was entertaining, in kind of "This must never happen again" kind of way. Fortunately the child was fine - just crashed out and had big nap in the end.
My ex made sure no Red Bull ever entered the house again.
And poured the rest of the can down the drain.
I haven't been that scared since I visited Baghdad in 2004.
They don't even think about the restaurants along the river.
The bigger issue with Wetherspoons has always been the clientele it attracts. Often it appears a day centre for those with a range of issues.
I would like to see what would happen at a Mick Lynch / Trump summit.
The ones I see in London are my age so have the similar amount of spare cash to be able to eat out when they want to.
Still, at least it's not ‐ 'Nigel's ego won't let him share the limelight with anyone; Reform will break apart in a matter of weeks'.
Tim Spoons is the unacceptable face of Capitalism.
Late 20s. Can’t afford to eat out regularly at all.
Interestingly on the who would make the best PM poll ratings translated to voteshares and seats you would get Reform 245 MPs, Labour 210, LDs 85, SNP 33 and Tories just 13. So likely Reform most seats but a Labour led government still supported by the LDs and SNP (though Badenoch underperforms her party's voteshare by 12% compared to 4% for Starmer and just 2% for Farage)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=12&LAB=21&LIB=12&Reform=23&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
Whatever happened to the yard-arm?
The thing that sucks the most about this trade dispute is that it validates what Lucas was saying in THE PHANTOM MENACE
Does your objection involve a nugget of religiosity I wonder?
As a liberal, I would have expected us to agree on this just as we do on other things - that someone with less than six months to live, with no quality of life, no wish to go on, and with possible suffering ahead of them should be able to opt (or the person's attorneys opt) to die when they want.
If your objections are technical, then I agree this is a problem and I agree that a bad bill is not better than no bill _ and would prefer more thought and a better bill instead - but you seem against it on principle, which surprises me.
"In the 1988 U.S. presidential election, George H.W. Bush received 47,728 votes in the District of Columbia (DC), which amounted to approximately 71% of the total votes cast in DC. His Democratic opponent, Michael Dukakis, received 19,208 votes, or around 29% of the vote in the district.
Bush’s strong performance in DC was part of his broader victory in the election, where he won the presidency by a wide margin."
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24905239.snp-really-considering-banning-cats-scotland/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=030225
Somewhat verisimilitude-challenged. IN fact totally so.
Ironically, though, I can think of at least one PB arch-Unionist who would thoroughly approve.
Primarily it is rent (for lodging in SE London, hardly glamorous), secondarily it is the cost of barrister exam fees which it seems the chambers in question doesn’t cover.
I thought about not paying the service charge but then thought I'm going to look like a real shit if I don't pay the 15% service charge.
Mind, I have no idea how many of the Spoons clientele are ex-officers.
But how much is that tips, how much is that better management, and how much is that a culture which doesn’t look down on “service”?
Not tipping per drink normally will result in you standing at a bar like Billie No Mates for a very long time.
I can usually fix that by slipping them my credit card though - so it’s not completely obvious I’m subbing everyone and paying for 90% of the night out
It just means that she refuses to do public inquiries and senior staff members need to find the time to present her work
Latest @BMGResearch poll for @theipaper.
#EURef2 vi: Join 45 (+1); Stay Out 37 (-3). Fwork 28-29.1.25 (ch since 26-27.11.24).
Or will the US put them on us for not putting them on the EU? Trade is about equal there, so they would stand to gain little.
As I said, fortunately positioned for once, though of course Sir Useless could contrive to bugger it up.
Mind, I never asked.
If only 23% currently favour Farage as PM, when Reform are currently knocking it out of the park in public commentary, I'd suggest he's pretty unlikely to be the next PM.
Ironically, the three or four people who still haven’t twigged that Brexit was a failure seem to post regularly on here.
One thing rarely discussed is how the EU might have evolved differently, had we stayed in.
45/37 is actually surprisingly closer than one would expect
https://x.com/ElytraMithra/status/1886064896447844654
However, it’s boring to keep pointing this out.
And one thing we’ve learned from Brexit is that peolle don’t really change their minds, even (or especially?) those who post to a political forum.
Skys words, not mine
1) Yes, the next election can't be predicted
2) Reform will have a ceiling if they remain wedded to Trump and other loonies in the public mind. Elections are won from the centre, and 2024 was no exception. Reform can shock the media conformists by explaining just how centrist they are. Like the Tories, the libertarian wing has to be placed firmly in a box
3) The graph showing 'None' as favorite leader is terrible for all three, but much the least terrible for the bloke with 5 MPs and is in the lead
4) At this moment no-one knows a route to repairing the Tory brand unless Kemi has a cunning and very secret plan
Codename: Gravehawk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m41VL0PSl7U
Well done to all involved, yet another example of war fostering innovation.
Remain had much bigger leads over Leave than that before the original campaign started.
What you have to distinguish is those who think Brexit is a failure because it hasn't gone far enough, or the powers been taken advantage of enough, over those who think it was a fundamental mistake and should be reversed.
That's the bit your side keeps missing.
The other thing is that there’s a clear divide now between 20-somethings who have parental wealth behind them, and those who don’t.
Said wealth is often merely an artefact of house price inflation circa 1990-2015.
It breaks my heart, especially as I myself didn’t come from money (my father left school at 14 for example) and I just don’t know how I’d react were I to live my life again, knowing that I may never be able to afford those things that as a (very) late Gen Xer I’ve taken for granted.
I often wonder whether I’d simply have opted out of a professional career altogether.
The juice is not worth ten years of squeeze right now.
That’s distinct from Brexit, which has delivered ten years of squeeze with no juice whatsoever.
Someone posted a tweet earlier but it appeared to have no causal evidence.
There is no form of EU membership I'd favour. Consider people like me dormant, but we'd absolutely rise up to fight again should a rejoin movement ever get political traction.
Not right for us then, not now, not ever.