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How long will Trump last today? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,583
    Stockmarkets up again today. Having their little relief rally after inflation and gilt yield pressure subsided. Question is does that continue once Trump starts signing those executive orders? What's the actual tariff policy going to be?

    Kind of hoping he gets distracted by a load of domestic partisan issues for the next few months and forgets about his tariffs, or at least keeps them limited.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,481

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
  • TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    Trump would have to have trust in someone to do that. Is he likely to trust anyone that much?

    Further he'll be 79 in June which of course means that at the close of his term he'll be over 80. Will he still be composed mantis then? Biden was OK when he was elected, but he's unquestionably gone downhill, mentally, in the past couple of years.

    Thee's also the question as to whether the Republicans will hold either House of Congress after the mid-terms.
    I cannot see any way Trump will stand again, not least for the reasons you mention

    The wider problem for the Democrats is how do they find an inspiring Obama style candidate to take on Republicans in 2029
    Not so fast, 2028. Our election for the Farage/Yaxley-Lennon/Tate/Braverman dream ticket is pencilled in for 2029.
    That's what makes our next election even harder to call than it would otherwise be. By 2029 Trump's second term will be over, the next French presidential election will have been and gone and the world will be a very different place, for better or worse.
    Whilst Trump will be over the bigger question is will the Republicans be over ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,583
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anyway this is why I don't like Mondays. It's the sort of day when the world’s wealthiest most influential nation and biggest military arsenal tends to get delivered into the hands of an unstable malevolent despot who cares only for his own enrichment and glorification. The big question, which I'm finding impossible to answer right now, is will I watch it? Revulsion is going head to head with fascination and it's too close to call.

    Blue Monday today isn't it?
    Start of the New Order.
    Trump's certainly got the world in motion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,997
    Korea starting to look like the US, where the partisan divide overwhelms any real concern for democracy.

    Ruling party’s approval rating surges despite criminal probe into president

    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2025/01/356_390745.html
    The approval rating of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) surpassed that of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), despite an ongoing criminal investigation into President Yoon Suk Yeol, according to a new poll released on Monday.

    The survey, conducted by Realmeter, found that 46.5 percent of 1,004 respondents expressed support for the PPP, an increase from 40.8 percent the previous week. In contrast, 39 percent indicated support for the DPK, a decrease from 42.2 percent.

    This is the first time in six months that the PPP's support rate has surpassed the DPK's by more than the margin of error, which stands at 3.1 percent, according to the pollster.

    When asked which political party they would prefer to win the next presidency, 48.6 percent of respondents said they would support the current ruling party, while 46.2 percent favored one of the opposition parties.

    The survey results indicate that the conservative voters are becoming more united, driven by a growing distrust of the DPK and negative sentiment toward its leader, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, who is widely seen as the front-runner in the upcoming presidential election, according to experts.

    Just three weeks ago, following the president's impeachment at the National Assembly, the gap appeared insurmountable, with more than 60 percent of respondents expressing a preference for one of the opposition parties over the PPP...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,583

    TimS said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    Trump would have to have trust in someone to do that. Is he likely to trust anyone that much?

    Further he'll be 79 in June which of course means that at the close of his term he'll be over 80. Will he still be composed mantis then? Biden was OK when he was elected, but he's unquestionably gone downhill, mentally, in the past couple of years.

    Thee's also the question as to whether the Republicans will hold either House of Congress after the mid-terms.
    I cannot see any way Trump will stand again, not least for the reasons you mention

    The wider problem for the Democrats is how do they find an inspiring Obama style candidate to take on Republicans in 2029
    Not so fast, 2028. Our election for the Farage/Yaxley-Lennon/Tate/Braverman dream ticket is pencilled in for 2029.
    That's what makes our next election even harder to call than it would otherwise be. By 2029 Trump's second term will be over, the next French presidential election will have been and gone and the world will be a very different place, for better or worse.
    Whilst Trump will be over the bigger question is will the Republicans be over ?
    My expectation is that their grip on the levers of power will be pretty tight and we'll be into the next phase of the thousand year reign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    TimS said:

    Stockmarkets up again today.

    No blue monday for the markets.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,258
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Anyway this is why I don't like Mondays. It's the sort of day when the world’s wealthiest most influential nation and biggest military arsenal tends to get delivered into the hands of an unstable malevolent despot who cares only for his own enrichment and glorification. The big question, which I'm finding impossible to answer right now, is will I watch it? Revulsion is going head to head with fascination and it's too close to call.

    Blue Monday today isn't it?
    Yes. I do genuinely feel sad. More that than anything else actually.
  • TimS said:

    Stockmarkets up again today. Having their little relief rally after inflation and gilt yield pressure subsided. Question is does that continue once Trump starts signing those executive orders? What's the actual tariff policy going to be?

    Kind of hoping he gets distracted by a load of domestic partisan issues for the next few months and forgets about his tariffs, or at least keeps them limited.

    He certainly affirmed them in his one and a half hour speech last night
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,583
    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Stockmarkets up again today.

    No blue monday for the markets.
    They're keeping the true faith
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,888

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    Trump would have to have trust in someone to do that. Is he likely to trust anyone that much?

    Further he'll be 79 in June which of course means that at the close of his term he'll be over 80. Will he still be composed mantis then? Biden was OK when he was elected, but he's unquestionably gone downhill, mentally, in the past couple of years.

    Thee's also the question as to whether the Republicans will hold either House of Congress after the mid-terms.
    I cannot see any way Trump will stand again, not least for the reasons you mention

    The wider problem for the Democrats is how do they find an inspiring Obama style candidate to take on Republicans in 2029
    Must be something about being significantly over 80 which makes you and I agree so frequently. Starting to take stock of how we got to where we are, or something!
    I think that the Democrats ought to spend a little time thinking and planning for the 2028 elections, rather than sounding off too much now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,997
    S. Korea to develop Iron Dome-like interceptor against NK artillery by 2028
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2025/01/205_390723.html

    Not a bad idea when your capital is just about in artillery range from N Korea.
  • Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    Trump would have to have trust in someone to do that. Is he likely to trust anyone that much?

    Further he'll be 79 in June which of course means that at the close of his term he'll be over 80. Will he still be composed mantis then? Biden was OK when he was elected, but he's unquestionably gone downhill, mentally, in the past couple of years.

    Thee's also the question as to whether the Republicans will hold either House of Congress after the mid-terms.
    I cannot see any way Trump will stand again, not least for the reasons you mention

    The wider problem for the Democrats is how do they find an inspiring Obama style candidate to take on Republicans in 2029
    Must be something about being significantly over 80 which makes you and I agree so frequently. Starting to take stock of how we got to where we are, or something!
    I think that the Democrats ought to spend a little time thinking and planning for the 2028 elections, rather than sounding off too much now.
    You cannot put old heads on young shoulder's as they say, but also our health issues have impacted us and certainly Biden should never have been allowed to take on Trump
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,352
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All muscle.


    Michelin Man chic is not impressive, imo.
    Gym-based musclemen tend to be fairly pants at manual labour. The wrong muscle groups developed for the wrong tasks. They can be pretty awful with a shovel when down in a trench.

    (I do not mean 'average' muscles; just the ones that develop muscles for show.
    Apologies for superimposing Trump's head onto Boris' torso ;)

    My colleague has a son who can is heavily into powerlifting. He wants to try and break the all time world record for squat of 380 kg at or under 75 kg bodyweight. He's slightly over that weight and can do 370. He isn't yet 18 !
    The chief coach of the gym I part own is now at the stage where he is competing for the UK at 'the sport of fitness'. It's basically Crossfit or similars. His body is not noticeably out of kilter.

    The other body shapes that make me cringe are influencers who are trying to look like male or female sex dolls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    Your premise implies he is eligible to be elected to the office of VP. That is not the case.
    There is the issue of him being Speaker and then being in line of succession and so on.

    Trump will push this one way or another.

    This will end up at the Supreme Court which of course will impartially review the law and make a decision.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,669
    edited January 20

    TimS said:

    Stockmarkets up again today. Having their little relief rally after inflation and gilt yield pressure subsided. Question is does that continue once Trump starts signing those executive orders? What's the actual tariff policy going to be?

    Kind of hoping he gets distracted by a load of domestic partisan issues for the next few months and forgets about his tariffs, or at least keeps them limited.

    He certainly affirmed them in his one and a half hour speech last night
    That's why the next bit is grimly fascinating.

    Up to now, Trump has been able to say all sorts of contradictory bobbins. In this context, raise tariffs and cut the cost of living. You can do that with words. If you're really clever, you can make your audience disregard the bit they don't want to hear.

    Much harder to do with actions. Apart from fleecing the faithful, what is he actually going to do?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/ricky-jones-labour-councilor-trial-riots-delay-b1205817.html

    The trial of a suspended Labour councillor who is accused of encouraging violence in last summer’s riots has been delayed for seven months.

    Ricky Jones, 57, is charged with encouraging violent disorder over a speech he made to a crowd in Walthamstow on August 7 last year.

    Jones’ trial had been set to start on Monday at Snaresbrook crown court.

    But the case has now been delayed until August 11, in a decision that was taken last week.

    An application was made to break the trial fixture, and the delay was agreed by Judge Oscar Del Fabbro.

    Jones was initially remanded in custody after being charged, but is now on bail.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,983

    TimS said:

    Stockmarkets up again today. Having their little relief rally after inflation and gilt yield pressure subsided. Question is does that continue once Trump starts signing those executive orders? What's the actual tariff policy going to be?

    Kind of hoping he gets distracted by a load of domestic partisan issues for the next few months and forgets about his tariffs, or at least keeps them limited.

    He certainly affirmed them in his one and a half hour speech last night
    That's why the next bit is grimly fascinating.

    Up to now, Trump has been able to say all sorts of contradictory bobbins. In this context, raise tariffs and cut the cost of living. You can do that with words. If you're really clever, you can make your audience disregard the bit they don't want to hear.

    Much harder to do with actions. Apart from fleecing the faithful, what is he actually going to do?
    Yes, I am sad and fearful about Trump 2.0 but there is a fascination about it, too - as there always is when fantasies meet reality.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
    Citation for what ???

    Just wait and watch what happens.

    And if you think that Trump will be President after 2029 then put your money on it because you'll get very long odds.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,856

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
    Citation for what ???

    Just wait and watch what happens.

    And if you think that Trump will be President after 2029 then put your money on it because you'll get very long odds.
    We had all this shit in 2021. He's too old, he's dying, he's going to jail, he'll be bankrupt, etc.

    DJT is going fucking nowhere in 2028. He's the American Mugabe.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,184
    Can't wait for the JFK files to be released. 😊
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    What’s going on?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773
    theakes said:

    We are entering a period in US history that will deny the fundamental and basic rights laid down by the forefathers. There will probably not be another Presidential election and a one party state will emerge.

    You've started on the sauce a bit early... How is this dystopia to emerge?
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    Gas producing 61% of our energy this morning.

    Only 1% wind and 2% solar.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    "Good morning. In less than an hour, aircraft from here will join others from around the world. And you will be launching the largest aerial battle in the history of mankind.

    "'Mankind.' That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it's fate that today is the Fourth of July, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom … Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution … but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist.

    "And should we win the day, the Fourth of July will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the world declared in one voice: 'We will not go quietly into the night! We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive!' Today we celebrate our Independence Day!"

    [Crowd cheers!]
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,258
    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Good morning PB

    Are we all ready for Trump V2?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB

    Are we all ready for Trump V2?

    Vengeance Weapon???
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,762

    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB

    Are we all ready for Trump V2?

    Vengeance Weapon???
    Ya, mein Anführer und Gott der Züge!

    (clicks heels)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773
    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    Disclosure? Oh wait, that was just an egg on some rope landing on a bit of artificial turf...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,583
    edited January 20
    We still don't know where he'll end up on the world leader Beaufort scale. Here's a reminder of the numbers:

    0. Calm
    1. Light airs and graces
    2. Light sleaze
    3. Gentle unease
    4. Moderate unease
    5. Fresh elections please
    6. Strongman
    7. Near dictatorship
    8. Dictatorship
    9. Severe dictatorship
    10. Stormtroopers
    11. Violent subjugation
    12. Holocaust

    2016-20 was force 4. 2025 seems to be starting at 5-6.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279

    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    Disclosure? Oh wait, that was just an egg on some rope landing on a bit of artificial turf...
    Did you see that?! How bizarre was that, I watched it this morning

    It does seem to be genuine footage of a helicopter picking up..... *something*

    Conclusive proof of aliens visiting earth.... not so much
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
    Citation for what ???

    Just wait and watch what happens.

    And if you think that Trump will be President after 2029 then put your money on it because you'll get very long odds.
    We had all this shit in 2021. He's too old, he's dying, he's going to jail, he'll be bankrupt, etc.

    DJT is going fucking nowhere in 2028. He's the American Mugabe.
    We had all this shit in 2020 with claims that the supreme court will overturn the election result.

    Reality was the supreme court didn't do anything.

    The only reason Trump is back as President is that the Dems are incompetent.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    The day a new US President is elected, especially one as news worth as Donald Trump, is a great day for firms and governments to bury bad news. Wonder what'll be snuck out today...

    https://x.com/martinslewis/status/1881269015987019857
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    edited January 20

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    Trump would have to have trust in someone to do that. Is he likely to trust anyone that much?

    Further he'll be 79 in June which of course means that at the close of his term he'll be over 80. Will he still be composed mantis then? Biden was OK when he was elected, but he's unquestionably gone downhill, mentally, in the past couple of years.

    Thee's also the question as to whether the Republicans will hold either House of Congress after the mid-terms.
    I cannot see any way Trump will stand again, not least for the reasons you mention

    The wider problem for the Democrats is how do they find an inspiring Obama style candidate to take on Republicans in 2029
    To be fair even John Kerry or Al Gore would have won in 2008 after the crash and US voters tiring of overseas wars.

    While a charismatic centrist candidate will help I suspect the 2028 election will be decided more on whether Trump's tariffs increase prices more or bring back manufacturing jobs and how much he has cut immigration by without damaging US growth.

    Vance will almost certainly be GOP nominee as current VP and no way he is having Trump as his VP
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    edited January 20
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
    Essentially, yes

    Stage Two of this "peace plan" requires Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's borders, esp the border with Egypt. That allows Hamas to import more weapons and prepare another attack, and off we go again

    There is simply no way the Israelis will ever agree to this - and TBH I do not blame them. No Israeli government can allow the risk of another October Surprise, if they did and it happened they would be lynched

    So, inevitably, I think, the Israelis will go back to the original longterm plan, which is make Gaze unlivable so it literally no longer exists, and seize the West Bank in toto. The only way this doesn't happen is if Hamas are suddenly replaced by a democratic regime in Gaza that honestly seeks peace, the chances of that seem to be zero - and I likewise don't blame the Gazans for their ongoing hatred of Israel

    Quite depressing, really, let's focus on more cheerful things like our shared excitement at the prospect of THE Donald 2.0!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Biden's last day in office and everyone's forgotten about him. One of the most effective presidents of my lifetime in many ways but he ultimately failed at the one thing he absolutely had to do: keep Trump out of office.

    He was also the only Democrat to beat Trump. It was the Democrats who removed him effectively in favour of Harris as their nominee. Though his dementia meant a second term for Biden was near impossible
    With hindsight there is now no doubt Biden should have declined to run two summers ago and allowed a full primary season.

    I thought that was the plan all along.
    So did everyone.
    I think what changed it was the Dems outperforming expectations in the midterms. At which point hubris set in.
    Also the realisation that Trump was running again, that Biden had stood aside in 2016 and watched Trump win and he didn't want to do that again.

    We all agree that Biden's mistake was not to have stood aside before the Primaries, but he's convinced that his mistake was standing aside at all. Biden's record is to be the only person to defeat Trump in a Presidential election, and to have stood aside twice and watched the Democrats lose those two times.
    Yes Biden would almost certainly have beaten Trump in 2016 and probably been re elected in 2020 and we might now be looking towards maybe President Haley's inaugration?

    However Obama and the Dem establishment insisted Hillary had to be nominee in 2016 not the incumbent VP
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    Gas producing 61% of our energy this morning.

    Only 1% wind and 2% solar.

    Let's hope a large generator doesn't fall over during the evening peak.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    For a moment I forgot that the Spectator Index has nothing to do with The Speccy. Jo'burg?! Liverpool?!!!

    https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1881295616807993501
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    Disclosure? Oh wait, that was just an egg on some rope landing on a bit of artificial turf...
    Did you see that?! How bizarre was that, I watched it this morning

    It does seem to be genuine footage of a helicopter picking up..... *something*

    Conclusive proof of aliens visiting earth.... not so much
    I found it striking just how shit it was. I am starting to be more persuaded by the idea that someone on the inside is using these idiots are distraction. I mean seriously.

    Mostly I think its just a grift - there is a lot of money to be made on chat show, on the circuit and in books, but you've got to keep the pot stirring. But this was just rubbish. Interesting reactions on X too, a lot of people are waking up to the fact that the 'whistleblowers' have nothing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773

    The day a new US President is elected, especially one as news worth as Donald Trump, is a great day for firms and governments to bury bad news. Wonder what'll be snuck out today...

    https://x.com/martinslewis/status/1881269015987019857

    I thought he was elected last year?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,185

    A Trump eulogy from Lammy on R4 this morning.
    He's the definition of vacuous, glibly expressing whatever principles he's decided he has on any given day.

    It's very impressive. I don't think we appreciate how difficult that must be for someone like Lammy - like him or not, he clearly has strong personal views about a whole bunch of issues.

    Sometimes you just need to do the job, and I doubt there are many other people in the current Cabinet who could perform so shamelessly.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,758
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
    Citation for what ???

    Just wait and watch what happens.

    And if you think that Trump will be President after 2029 then put your money on it because you'll get very long odds.
    We had all this shit in 2021. He's too old, he's dying, he's going to jail, he'll be bankrupt, etc.

    DJT is going fucking nowhere in 2028. He's the American Mugabe.
    So who's the American Mnangagwa to defenestrate him ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,583
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
    Essentially, yes

    Stage Two of this "peace plan" requires Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's borders, esp the border with Egypt. That allows Hamas to import more weapons and prepare another attack, and off we go again

    There is simply no way the Israelis will ever agree to this - and TBH I do not blame them. No Israeli government can allow the risk of another October Surprise, if they did and it happened they would be lynched

    So, inevitably, I think, the Israelis will go back to the original longterm plan, which is make Gaze unlivable so it literally no longer exists, and seize the West Bank in toto. The only way this doesn't happen is if Hamas are suddenly replaced by a democratic regime in Gaza that honestly seeks peace, the chances of that seem to be zero - and I likewise don't blame the Gazans for their ongoing hatred of Israel

    Quite depressing, really, let's focus on more cheerful things like our shared excitement at the prospect of THE Donald 2.0!

    In the past, a lot of long term regional animosities were "resolved", at least temporarily, by an external imperial power coming in and taking over. Think the USSR and Armenia/Azerbaijan, The Caliphate and the warring Arab states, the conquistadors and the warring Incas. No such prospect this time, so it continues.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    edited January 20
    I believe old squeaky voice is at the inauguration, so I guess this must be one way of keeping London safe.
    It's become an almost unbreakable rule that anyone with a dyed beard is a wrong un.

    https://x.com/GSGB01/status/1880620950414143876
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    edited January 20

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    Disclosure? Oh wait, that was just an egg on some rope landing on a bit of artificial turf...
    Did you see that?! How bizarre was that, I watched it this morning

    It does seem to be genuine footage of a helicopter picking up..... *something*

    Conclusive proof of aliens visiting earth.... not so much
    I found it striking just how shit it was. I am starting to be more persuaded by the idea that someone on the inside is using these idiots are distraction. I mean seriously.

    Mostly I think its just a grift - there is a lot of money to be made on chat show, on the circuit and in books, but you've got to keep the pot stirring. But this was just rubbish. Interesting reactions on X too, a lot of people are waking up to the fact that the 'whistleblowers' have nothing.
    And yet the story keeps going. On and on. Blurry image after blurry image, drone after balloon after drone

    I've no idea what underlies it all. Mass delusion, psy-ops, an enormous grift, psychological contagion, Chinese tech, little green men with anal probes (that's probably in descending order of likelihood) - who knows. It is one of the most interesting psychosocial phenomena of our time
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    The day a new US President is elected, especially one as news worth as Donald Trump, is a great day for firms and governments to bury bad news. Wonder what'll be snuck out today...

    https://x.com/martinslewis/status/1881269015987019857

    I thought he was elected last year?
    That was for the Electoral College. He’s currently “President-elect” and doesn’t become President until inauguration

    https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

  • Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
    Citation for what ???

    Just wait and watch what happens.

    And if you think that Trump will be President after 2029 then put your money on it because you'll get very long odds.
    We had all this shit in 2021. He's too old, he's dying, he's going to jail, he'll be bankrupt, etc.

    DJT is going fucking nowhere in 2028. He's the American Mugabe.
    So who's the American Mnangagwa to defenestrate him ?
    I want to know who the American Canaan Banana is?

    He was responsible for one of the greatest headlines in human history

    'Man sodomised by Banana'
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,185

    Gas producing 61% of our energy this morning.

    Only 1% wind and 2% solar.

    And the spot price is up to £194 as a result, and emissions to 278g/kWh. Ouch.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,583

    Gas producing 61% of our energy this morning.

    Only 1% wind and 2% solar.

    Let's hope a large generator doesn't fall over during the evening peak.
    Demand expected to be lower this week than last. But calm conditions continue for a couple of days.
    The wind returns properly on Thursday.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,758

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
    Citation for what ???

    Just wait and watch what happens.

    And if you think that Trump will be President after 2029 then put your money on it because you'll get very long odds.
    We had all this shit in 2021. He's too old, he's dying, he's going to jail, he'll be bankrupt, etc.

    DJT is going fucking nowhere in 2028. He's the American Mugabe.
    So who's the American Mnangagwa to defenestrate him ?
    I want to know who the American Canaan Banana is?

    He was responsible for one of the greatest headlines in human history

    'Man sodomised by Banana'
    Brilliant :smiley:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    Disclosure? Oh wait, that was just an egg on some rope landing on a bit of artificial turf...
    Did you see that?! How bizarre was that, I watched it this morning

    It does seem to be genuine footage of a helicopter picking up..... *something*

    Conclusive proof of aliens visiting earth.... not so much
    I found it striking just how shit it was. I am starting to be more persuaded by the idea that someone on the inside is using these idiots are distraction. I mean seriously.

    Mostly I think its just a grift - there is a lot of money to be made on chat show, on the circuit and in books, but you've got to keep the pot stirring. But this was just rubbish. Interesting reactions on X too, a lot of people are waking up to the fact that the 'whistleblowers' have nothing.
    And yet the story keeps going. On and on. Blurry image after blurry image, drone after balloon after drone

    I've no idea what underlies it all. Mass delusion, psy-ops, an enormous grift, psychological contagion, Chinese tech, little green men with anal probes (that's probably in descending order of likelihood) - who knows. It is one of the most interesting psychosocial phenomena of our time
    I think an awful lot of people want to believe its aliens and there's the market. Where there is money to be made, people will step up and sell stuff. You do that yourself. The hype train is the biggest issue these guys have. Saturday was hugely hyped up and what did we get - a short video of what? A new internet parody meme.
    I think there are some of the whistleblowers who have convinced themselves that what they are saying is true but an awful lot of them have found a way to make a lot of money.

    I compare it mediums. I do not believe that anyone can communicate with the dead, yet there are millions who do believe just that and will pay to see it 'done'.

    So many questions about the 'retrieval'. Why was it just dumped? Where was the care that should be used if it really was an alien craft? Why does it look exactly like a blimp (as post elsewhere on X)?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773

    The day a new US President is elected, especially one as news worth as Donald Trump, is a great day for firms and governments to bury bad news. Wonder what'll be snuck out today...

    https://x.com/martinslewis/status/1881269015987019857

    I thought he was elected last year?
    That was for the Electoral College. He’s currently “President-elect” and doesn’t become President until inauguration

    https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

    So is there a vote today? Surely its correct to say he was elected in November and inaugerated today?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Doubt it will be that long. Ceasefire will collapse within days I suspect.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Today's The Day

    Are we all excited?!

    OOOH

    Disclosure? Oh wait, that was just an egg on some rope landing on a bit of artificial turf...
    Did you see that?! How bizarre was that, I watched it this morning

    It does seem to be genuine footage of a helicopter picking up..... *something*

    Conclusive proof of aliens visiting earth.... not so much
    I found it striking just how shit it was. I am starting to be more persuaded by the idea that someone on the inside is using these idiots are distraction. I mean seriously.

    Mostly I think its just a grift - there is a lot of money to be made on chat show, on the circuit and in books, but you've got to keep the pot stirring. But this was just rubbish. Interesting reactions on X too, a lot of people are waking up to the fact that the 'whistleblowers' have nothing.
    And yet the story keeps going. On and on. Blurry image after blurry image, drone after balloon after drone

    I've no idea what underlies it all. Mass delusion, psy-ops, an enormous grift, psychological contagion, Chinese tech, little green men with anal probes (that's probably in descending order of likelihood) - who knows. It is one of the most interesting psychosocial phenomena of our time
    I think an awful lot of people want to believe its aliens and there's the market. Where there is money to be made, people will step up and sell stuff. You do that yourself. The hype train is the biggest issue these guys have. Saturday was hugely hyped up and what did we get - a short video of what? A new internet parody meme.
    I think there are some of the whistleblowers who have convinced themselves that what they are saying is true but an awful lot of them have found a way to make a lot of money.

    I compare it mediums. I do not believe that anyone can communicate with the dead, yet there are millions who do believe just that and will pay to see it 'done'.

    So many questions about the 'retrieval'. Why was it just dumped? Where was the care that should be used if it really was an alien craft? Why does it look exactly like a blimp (as post elsewhere on X)?
    And yet they got a self-proclaimed skeptic like you to watch?

    I don't blame you, it is interesting

    And sometimes, just sometimes, "they"have footage or images which do seem genuinely inexplicable - rarely tho, and this was certainly not one of them

    The truly bizarre thing is that we are definitely about to encounter alien, superior, non-human intelligence, and it will quite likely happen this year, it's just not coming in a flying saucer. Yet all the focus is on the Martians. Sometimes I wonder if these two phenomena are linked, in some peculiar way. We cannot cope with actual weird reality so we invent a different weird reality?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    MattW said:

    Before I head out, my photo quota is an example of what social media can do.

    I have a friend who tweets as CyclinginaSkirt, and is a 5x mum from Sheffield who e-cycles to work at the local hospital, and has developed her Twitter account into an active travel junction box by dint of building up a following / followers of about 12k over 2-3 years, and posting relevant material. Including getting particularly cross about an ex-phone box on a shared cycling-walking path enar Sheffield Station, which BT (I assume) have somehow managed to weasel-word or bully into an advertising board ACROSS half of the path in the same place.

    She is currently in St Luke's Hospice in the later stages of cancer. Hubby made an update post on her account, and this was dropped off at the hospice within 2 days:



    https://x.com/CyclingInASkirt/status/1879830786448511173

    (She passed away last Friday)

    My condolences.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    edited January 20

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Doubt it will be that long. Ceasefire will collapse within days I suspect.
    Trump really has put major pressure on the Israelis, by all accounts. That's why the deal is happening now, and not under Biden, who has been trying to do this for months. Trump is prepared to be mean to Bibi in ways the Democrats are not, oddly

    So I suspect the Israelis will hold off for a while (unless provoked - which is quite possible). To keep Trump happy. But inevitably the hideous cycle will kick off, again, in time
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,997
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Biden's last day in office and everyone's forgotten about him. One of the most effective presidents of my lifetime in many ways but he ultimately failed at the one thing he absolutely had to do: keep Trump out of office.

    He was also the only Democrat to beat Trump. It was the Democrats who removed him effectively in favour of Harris as their nominee. Though his dementia meant a second term for Biden was near impossible
    With hindsight there is now no doubt Biden should have declined to run two summers ago and allowed a full primary season.

    I thought that was the plan all along.
    So did everyone.
    I think what changed it was the Dems outperforming expectations in the midterms. At which point hubris set in.
    Also the realisation that Trump was running again, that Biden had stood aside in 2016 and watched Trump win and he didn't want to do that again.

    We all agree that Biden's mistake was not to have stood aside before the Primaries, but he's convinced that his mistake was standing aside at all. Biden's record is to be the only person to defeat Trump in a Presidential election, and to have stood aside twice and watched the Democrats lose those two times.
    Yes Biden would almost certainly have beaten Trump in 2016 and probably been re elected in 2020 and we might now be looking towards maybe President Haley's inaugration?

    However Obama and the Dem establishment insisted Hillary had to be nominee in 2016 not the incumbent VP
    He'd probably have gone for it anyway if his son hadn't died.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652

    The day a new US President is elected, especially one as news worth as Donald Trump, is a great day for firms and governments to bury bad news. Wonder what'll be snuck out today...

    https://x.com/martinslewis/status/1881269015987019857

    I thought he was elected last year?
    That was for the Electoral College. He’s currently “President-elect” and doesn’t become President until inauguration

    https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

    So is there a vote today? Surely its correct to say he was elected in November and inaugerated today?
    Wasn't he elected on Jan 6th ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,830

    For a moment I forgot that the Spectator Index has nothing to do with The Speccy. Jo'burg?! Liverpool?!!!

    https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1881295616807993501

    Easily explained. The Scousers get their name from lobscouse, which you and I know as stovies. Divine.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075

    Grieve:

    "But what I find much more troubling about all this is what it tells us about Jenrick. As a Conservative I would expect him to be respectful of the role of the Law Officers in ensuring the Government gets professional and impartial legal advice. But he is quite happy to trash the system when he thinks it might score a cheap hit."

    https://x.com/dominicgrieve_/status/1881287984550400325

    Grieve might well be right.

    But he might well be hypocritical too. He demanded concessions from May's Government regarding EU negotiations, eventually got them, then proclaimed it was 'too late' and he wasn't even going to vote for the thing he'd wanted.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881305706797871574

    Charlie Bentley-Astor
    @astor_charlie
    AXEL RUDAKUBANA HAS PLEAD GUILTY TO ALL CHARGES
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,762
    edited January 20
    Pulpstar said:

    The day a new US President is elected, especially one as news worth as Donald Trump, is a great day for firms and governments to bury bad news. Wonder what'll be snuck out today...

    https://x.com/martinslewis/status/1881269015987019857

    I thought he was elected last year?
    That was for the Electoral College. He’s currently “President-elect” and doesn’t become President until inauguration

    https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

    So is there a vote today? Surely its correct to say he was elected in November and inaugerated today?
    Wasn't he elected on Jan 6th ?
    November 5, 2024—Election Day
    The voters in each State choose electors to serve in the Electoral College.

    By December 11, 2024—Electors Appointed
    The State Executive of each State signs the Certificate of Ascertainment to appoint the electors chosen in the general election.

    December 17, 2024—Electors vote in the Electoral College
    The electors in each State met to select the President and Vice President of the United States.

    January 6, 2025—Congress counts the vote
    Congress met in joint session to count the electoral votes

    January 20, 2025—Inauguration Day
    The President-Elect is sworn in as President of the United States.

    Source: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2024
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881307108018397665

    Charlie Bentley-Astor
    @astor_charlie
    The Judge asks if there is any other material the defence wishes to place before the court.

    Mr Reiz says he does not have a psychiatrists report but wishes to submit Rudakubana's "considerable" mental health record which existed before the events in Southport on 29 July 2024
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    edited January 20
    Carnyx said:

    For a moment I forgot that the Spectator Index has nothing to do with The Speccy. Jo'burg?! Liverpool?!!!

    https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1881295616807993501

    Easily explained. The Scousers get their name from lobscouse, which you and I know as stovies. Divine.
    Joburg is inexplicable. Cape Town has Cape Malay cuisine, but Joburg?!! What?

    Also Medellin. I recently spent two weeks there. The food is utterly forgettable, some of it is dire

    I agree with Kuala Lumpur, Saigon, Bangkok, Seville. Naples is indeed great but not sure I'd make it top

    I would add Hanoi and Phnom Penh, and Georgetown and Singapore, also Osaka and probably Tokyo

    I shall refrain from commenting on.... Liverpool
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Asking generally, does sub judice apply in the time period between conviction and sentencing ?
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 712
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881307108018397665

    Charlie Bentley-Astor
    @astor_charlie
    The Judge asks if there is any other material the defence wishes to place before the court.

    Mr Reiz says he does not have a psychiatrists report but wishes to submit Rudakubana's "considerable" mental health record which existed before the events in Southport on 29 July 2024

    I'm watching it on TV. He has a long history of violent and disturbed behaviour.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,090
    Pulpstar said:

    Asking generally, does sub judice apply in the time period between conviction and sentencing ?

    Interesting question.

    Sub judice translates literally as "under the judge" so I would guess that, since the court proceedings had not concluded, that sub judice would still apply.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773
    Pulpstar said:

    The day a new US President is elected, especially one as news worth as Donald Trump, is a great day for firms and governments to bury bad news. Wonder what'll be snuck out today...

    https://x.com/martinslewis/status/1881269015987019857

    I thought he was elected last year?
    That was for the Electoral College. He’s currently “President-elect” and doesn’t become President until inauguration

    https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates

    So is there a vote today? Surely its correct to say he was elected in November and inaugerated today?
    Wasn't he elected on Jan 6th ?
    Whichever, it definitely isn't today (as per the tweet)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Rudakubana escorted to the cells
    Justice Goose: “Axel Rudakubana you can hear me I know. You have now pleaded guilty to this indictment to each of the charges upon it. The next stage is for sentence. That will take place on Thursday. In the meantime you must keep in touch with your barristers, solicitors and the intermediary in order for you to receive any advice or assistance.

    “You will understand it's inevitable that a life sentence will be imposed upon you. In the meantime, you go with the officers and be produced at that hearing at 11 o'clock on Thursday. Take him down.”

    Rudakubana is escorted to the cell by the dock officers.


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-axel-rudakubana-murder-trial-30817840

    Wonder how long he will actually serve, or be detained at His Majesty's Pleasure.....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292


    Rudakubana escorted to the cells
    Justice Goose: “Axel Rudakubana you can hear me I know. You have now pleaded guilty to this indictment to each of the charges upon it. The next stage is for sentence. That will take place on Thursday. In the meantime you must keep in touch with your barristers, solicitors and the intermediary in order for you to receive any advice or assistance.

    “You will understand it's inevitable that a life sentence will be imposed upon you. In the meantime, you go with the officers and be produced at that hearing at 11 o'clock on Thursday. Take him down.”

    Rudakubana is escorted to the cell by the dock officers.


    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-axel-rudakubana-murder-trial-30817840

    Wonder how long he will actually serve, or be detained at His Majesty's Pleasure.....

    Under 18 at time of offences so cannot be given a whole-life tariff.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Pulpstar said:

    Asking generally, does sub judice apply in the time period between conviction and sentencing ?

    Google AI (FWIW): Contempt of court can occur at any time during a legal process, including after a verdict but before a sentence. The consequences of contempt of court can include fines, imprisonment, or both.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,068
    edited January 20

    Pulpstar said:

    Asking generally, does sub judice apply in the time period between conviction and sentencing ?

    Interesting question.

    Sub judice translates literally as "under the judge" so I would guess that, since the court proceedings had not concluded, that sub judice would still apply.
    On the whole no (sub judice does not now apply), as the Guardian has noticed in publishing all of this, most of which could not be lawfully published before a guilty plea/conviction:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/20/axel-rudakubana-a-ticking-timebomb-who-murdered-three-girls-in-southport
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 712
    Mods. If my comment above could cause legal problems please delete it. But I am just repeating what is being reported on TV.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652

    Pulpstar said:

    Asking generally, does sub judice apply in the time period between conviction and sentencing ?

    Google AI (FWIW): Contempt of court can occur at any time during a legal process, including after a verdict but before a sentence. The consequences of contempt of court can include fines, imprisonment, or both.
    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Asking generally, does sub judice apply in the time period between conviction and sentencing ?

    Interesting question.

    Sub judice translates literally as "under the judge" so I would guess that, since the court proceedings had not concluded, that sub judice would still apply.
    On the whole no (sub judice does not now apply), as the Guardian has noticed in publishing all of this, most of which could not be lawfully published before a guilty plea/conviction:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/20/axel-rudakubana-a-ticking-timebomb-who-murdered-three-girls-in-southport
    Thanks. Looks like AI produces a misleading answer.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,921
    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    For the first inauguration, I was away for a birthday weekend with my wife - she was pregnant, we'd just found out. I remember we briefly caught the news over coffee in the morning and we talked about the changes in the world, with the Brexit vote and now Trump's win challenging the cosy liberal consensus we'd known since childhood. Then we headed out for a little walk on the moors in the snow and forgot about all that :smile:

    My eldest son... well, he's certainly Lived In Interesting Times, although happily oblivious to most of it. we may live in an uncertain world, but we count our blessings - to quote an obscure song, everybody needs the same thing: food, roof and family. Beyond that, it's all fluff.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 125
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
    Essentially, yes

    Stage Two of this "peace plan" requires Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's borders, esp the border with Egypt. That allows Hamas to import more weapons and prepare another attack, and off we go again

    There is simply no way the Israelis will ever agree to this - and TBH I do not blame them. No Israeli government can allow the risk of another October Surprise, if they did and it happened they would be lynched

    So, inevitably, I think, the Israelis will go back to the original longterm plan, which is make Gaze unlivable so it literally no longer exists, and seize the West Bank in toto. The only way this doesn't happen is if Hamas are suddenly replaced by a democratic regime in Gaza that honestly seeks peace, the chances of that seem to be zero - and I likewise don't blame the Gazans for their ongoing hatred of Israel

    Quite depressing, really, let's focus on more cheerful things like our shared excitement at the prospect of THE Donald 2.0!

    The Greater Israel project. What do they do with all the Palestinians? Give them a vote and a passport? Or something else to make 3-5mn within GI and beyond disappear?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 43,258
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Doubt it will be that long. Ceasefire will collapse within days I suspect.
    Trump really has put major pressure on the Israelis, by all accounts. That's why the deal is happening now, and not under Biden, who has been trying to do this for months. Trump is prepared to be mean to Bibi in ways the Democrats are not, oddly

    So I suspect the Israelis will hold off for a while (unless provoked - which is quite possible). To keep Trump happy. But inevitably the hideous cycle will kick off, again, in time
    "Don't give Biden a deal. It might help him in the election. Wait until I get in."

    "Right. I'm in. A ceasefire would be good now and make it the day before I'm inaugurated so it's obvious it's down to me. Then, like we've discussed, give it a while and you guys can do whatever the hell you want, none of that human rights, rules of war bleating from our end."

    I bet something like this went on.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,773
    SandraMc said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881307108018397665

    Charlie Bentley-Astor
    @astor_charlie
    The Judge asks if there is any other material the defence wishes to place before the court.

    Mr Reiz says he does not have a psychiatrists report but wishes to submit Rudakubana's "considerable" mental health record which existed before the events in Southport on 29 July 2024

    I'm watching it on TV. He has a long history of violent and disturbed behaviour.
    And an interest in producing ricin, according to the BBC. Yet 'not terror related' per the police...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,185
    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Asking generally, does sub judice apply in the time period between conviction and sentencing ?

    Interesting question.

    Sub judice translates literally as "under the judge" so I would guess that, since the court proceedings had not concluded, that sub judice would still apply.
    On the whole no (sub judice does not now apply), as the Guardian has noticed in publishing all of this, most of which could not be lawfully published before a guilty plea/conviction:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/20/axel-rudakubana-a-ticking-timebomb-who-murdered-three-girls-in-southport
    "local authority workers would insist on a police officer being present at their meetings with him"

    welp. The way that article reads, he had the al-Qaeda stuff literally as a manual for how to kills lots of people, not so much that he subscribed to the ideology.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,185

    SandraMc said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881307108018397665

    Charlie Bentley-Astor
    @astor_charlie
    The Judge asks if there is any other material the defence wishes to place before the court.

    Mr Reiz says he does not have a psychiatrists report but wishes to submit Rudakubana's "considerable" mental health record which existed before the events in Southport on 29 July 2024

    I'm watching it on TV. He has a long history of violent and disturbed behaviour.
    And an interest in producing ricin, according to the BBC. Yet 'not terror related' per the police...
    Dunblane/Cumbria/Hungerford weren't terrorism either.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,090

    SandraMc said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881307108018397665

    Charlie Bentley-Astor
    @astor_charlie
    The Judge asks if there is any other material the defence wishes to place before the court.

    Mr Reiz says he does not have a psychiatrists report but wishes to submit Rudakubana's "considerable" mental health record which existed before the events in Southport on 29 July 2024

    I'm watching it on TV. He has a long history of violent and disturbed behaviour.
    And an interest in producing ricin, according to the BBC. Yet 'not terror related' per the police...
    Apparently no motive identified. Terrorism is defined as an act of violence in pursuit of an ideological end. In the absence of any cause his violence is simply sadistic nihilism, rather than terrorism.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,854
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/ricky-jones-labour-councilor-trial-riots-delay-b1205817.html

    The trial of a suspended Labour councillor who is accused of encouraging violence in last summer’s riots has been delayed for seven months.

    Ricky Jones, 57, is charged with encouraging violent disorder over a speech he made to a crowd in Walthamstow on August 7 last year.

    Jones’ trial had been set to start on Monday at Snaresbrook crown court.

    But the case has now been delayed until August 11, in a decision that was taken last week.

    An application was made to break the trial fixture, and the delay was agreed by Judge Oscar Del Fabbro.

    Jones was initially remanded in custody after being charged, but is now on bail.

    If the Ricky Jones trial had gone ahead today, there'd be accusations of using Trump to bury bad news. Since it has been postponed, there will be complaints of two tier (or at least two speed) justice around the Southport riots.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Doubt it will be that long. Ceasefire will collapse within days I suspect.
    Trump really has put major pressure on the Israelis, by all accounts. That's why the deal is happening now, and not under Biden, who has been trying to do this for months. Trump is prepared to be mean to Bibi in ways the Democrats are not, oddly

    So I suspect the Israelis will hold off for a while (unless provoked - which is quite possible). To keep Trump happy. But inevitably the hideous cycle will kick off, again, in time
    "Don't give Biden a deal. It might help him in the election. Wait until I get in."

    "Right. I'm in. A ceasefire would be good now and make it the day before I'm inaugurated so it's obvious it's down to me. Then, like we've discussed, give it a while and you guys can do whatever the hell you want, none of that human rights, rules of war bleating from our end."

    I bet something like this went on.
    Yep
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,888
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
    Essentially, yes

    Stage Two of this "peace plan" requires Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's borders, esp the border with Egypt. That allows Hamas to import more weapons and prepare another attack, and off we go again

    There is simply no way the Israelis will ever agree to this - and TBH I do not blame them. No Israeli government can allow the risk of another October Surprise, if they did and it happened they would be lynched

    So, inevitably, I think, the Israelis will go back to the original longterm plan, which is make Gaze unlivable so it literally no longer exists, and seize the West Bank in toto. The only way this doesn't happen is if Hamas are suddenly replaced by a democratic regime in Gaza that honestly seeks peace, the chances of that seem to be zero - and I likewise don't blame the Gazans for their ongoing hatred of Israel

    Quite depressing, really, let's focus on more cheerful things like our shared excitement at the prospect of THE Donald 2.0!

    The Greater Israel project. What do they do with all the Palestinians? Give them a vote and a passport? Or something else to make 3-5mn within GI and beyond disappear?
    According to 'bible-bashing' Israelis the Palestinians are unwelcome immigrants in the land God gave to the Jews.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,666

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Citation needed.
    Citation for what ???

    Just wait and watch what happens.

    And if you think that Trump will be President after 2029 then put your money on it because you'll get very long odds.
    We had all this shit in 2021. He's too old, he's dying, he's going to jail, he'll be bankrupt, etc.

    DJT is going fucking nowhere in 2028. He's the American Mugabe.
    So who's the American Mnangagwa to defenestrate him ?
    I want to know who the American Canaan Banana is?

    He was responsible for one of the greatest
    headlines in human history


    'Man sodomised by Banana'
    It’s not a good sign when you have to pass a law to stop your citizens making fun of your last name

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/ricky-jones-labour-councilor-trial-riots-delay-b1205817.html

    The trial of a suspended Labour councillor who is accused of encouraging violence in last summer’s riots has been delayed for seven months.

    Ricky Jones, 57, is charged with encouraging violent disorder over a speech he made to a crowd in Walthamstow on August 7 last year.

    Jones’ trial had been set to start on Monday at Snaresbrook crown court.

    But the case has now been delayed until August 11, in a decision that was taken last week.

    An application was made to break the trial fixture, and the delay was agreed by Judge Oscar Del Fabbro.

    Jones was initially remanded in custody after being charged, but is now on bail.

    If the Ricky Jones trial had gone ahead today, there'd be accusations of using Trump to bury bad news. Since it has been postponed, there will be complaints of two tier (or at least two speed) justice around the Southport riots.
    It's hard to judge this as, I guess, some people accused of rioting etc. did plead not guilty. Not sure if any such cases have also been delayed.

    It was a bit of a coincidence that the Jones case, the Southport case and the Kent soldier stabbing case were all due to start today. A few claiming on X that the last of those has also been postponed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 57,279
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
    Essentially, yes

    Stage Two of this "peace plan" requires Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's borders, esp the border with Egypt. That allows Hamas to import more weapons and prepare another attack, and off we go again

    There is simply no way the Israelis will ever agree to this - and TBH I do not blame them. No Israeli government can allow the risk of another October Surprise, if they did and it happened they would be lynched

    So, inevitably, I think, the Israelis will go back to the original longterm plan, which is make Gaze unlivable so it literally no longer exists, and seize the West Bank in toto. The only way this doesn't happen is if Hamas are suddenly replaced by a democratic regime in Gaza that honestly seeks peace, the chances of that seem to be zero - and I likewise don't blame the Gazans for their ongoing hatred of Israel

    Quite depressing, really, let's focus on more cheerful things like our shared excitement at the prospect of THE Donald 2.0!

    The Greater Israel project. What do they do with all the Palestinians? Give them a vote and a passport? Or something else to make 3-5mn within GI and beyond disappear?
    Expel them into Egypt or elsewhere, is likely the plan

    You can see glimpses of this plan, faraway in the distance, if you look hard enough

    “Jakarta ‘never heard’ of Trump’s plan to relocate Gazans to Indonesia”

    https://www.thejakartapost.com/world/2025/01/20/jakarta-never-heard-of-trumps-plan-to-relocate-gazans-to-indonesia.html.

    Bribe every Gazan to accept relocation, Bribe the relocation destination with a few billion dollars

    And, let’s be honest, is that markedly worse than the life and future Gazans have now? Sitting in the squalor and rubble, waiting for the Israelis to bomb their kids to shit again? No, it’s markedly better

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,155

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    12th

    ... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
    But he isn't constitutionally ineligible to the office of President, he's just constitutionally ineligible to be ELECTED to it.

    Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
    He hasn't and he's not even going to try.
    Quite, He is 78, he has made a point that is pretty unanswerable. In any event his ego, never mind his health, will not allow him to be anything except POTUS.

    Given that this is a one shot at redemption and laying out a Reagan style legacy he might even do many right things, albeit after he has done a whole load of very bad things.

    My judgement is that his petty vindictiveness will avoid any magnanimity in victory and that his instinct for grift and corruption will alienate even his allies. However, to give the old crook his due, today is his alone. Its up to him whether he a going to attempt statesmanship or childishness. Trump 45 was a total shitshow... can Trump 47 build anything lasting?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,994
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/ricky-jones-labour-councilor-trial-riots-delay-b1205817.html

    The trial of a suspended Labour councillor who is accused of encouraging violence in last summer’s riots has been delayed for seven months.

    Ricky Jones, 57, is charged with encouraging violent disorder over a speech he made to a crowd in Walthamstow on August 7 last year.

    Jones’ trial had been set to start on Monday at Snaresbrook crown court.

    But the case has now been delayed until August 11, in a decision that was taken last week.

    An application was made to break the trial fixture, and the delay was agreed by Judge Oscar Del Fabbro.

    Jones was initially remanded in custody after being charged, but is now on bail.

    If the Ricky Jones trial had gone ahead today, there'd be accusations of using Trump to bury bad news. Since it has been postponed, there will be complaints of two tier (or at least two speed) justice around the Southport riots.
    It's hard to judge this as, I guess, some people accused of rioting etc. did plead not guilty. Not sure if any such cases have also been delayed.

    It was a bit of a coincidence that the Jones case, the Southport case and the Kent soldier stabbing case were all due to start today. A few claiming on X that the last of those has also been postponed.
    I don't believe in coincidences as much as I used to.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,758
    Leon said:

    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
    Essentially, yes

    Stage Two of this "peace plan" requires Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's borders, esp the border with Egypt. That allows Hamas to import more weapons and prepare another attack, and off we go again

    There is simply no way the Israelis will ever agree to this - and TBH I do not blame them. No Israeli government can allow the risk of another October Surprise, if they did and it happened they would be lynched

    So, inevitably, I think, the Israelis will go back to the original longterm plan, which is make Gaze unlivable so it literally no longer exists, and seize the West Bank in toto. The only way this doesn't happen is if Hamas are suddenly replaced by a democratic regime in Gaza that honestly seeks peace, the chances of that seem to be zero - and I likewise don't blame the Gazans for their ongoing hatred of Israel

    Quite depressing, really, let's focus on more cheerful things like our shared excitement at the prospect of THE Donald 2.0!

    The Greater Israel project. What do they do with all the Palestinians? Give them a vote and a passport? Or something else to make 3-5mn within GI and beyond disappear?
    Expel them into Egypt or elsewhere, is likely the plan

    You can see glimpses of this plan, faraway in the distance, if you look hard enough

    “Jakarta ‘never heard’ of Trump’s plan to relocate Gazans to Indonesia”

    https://www.thejakartapost.com/world/2025/01/20/jakarta-never-heard-of-trumps-plan-to-relocate-gazans-to-indonesia.html.

    Bribe every Gazan to accept relocation, Bribe the relocation destination with a few billion dollars

    And, let’s be honest, is that markedly worse than the life and future Gazans have now? Sitting in the squalor and rubble, waiting for the Israelis to bomb their kids to shit again? No, it’s markedly better

    Probably one of the reason the Trumpmeister wants Greenland
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544

    Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1.bsky.social‬

    Follow
    BREAKING: President Biden just pardoned:

    * General Mark Milley
    * Dr. Anthony Fauci
    * Jan. 6 Committee members of Congress and staffers
    * The police officers who testified before the Jan. 6 Committee

    Biden says these pardons are not an acknowledgment of wrongdoing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,997

    Fishing said:

    The saving grace is that Trump can't be President again.. but which loon is going to follow him.....

    Not necessarily. The 22nd amendment only says that nobody can be ELECTED President twice.

    So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.

    I've been having nightmares recently...
    Trump would have to have trust in someone to do that. Is he likely to trust anyone that much?

    Further he'll be 79 in June which of course means that at the close of his term he'll be over 80. Will he still be composed mantis then? Biden was OK when he was elected, but he's unquestionably gone downhill, mentally, in the past couple of years.

    Thee's also the question as to whether the Republicans will hold either House of Congress after the mid-terms.
    I cannot see any way Trump will stand again, not least for the reasons you mention

    The wider problem for the Democrats is how do they find an inspiring Obama style candidate to take on Republicans in 2029
    Must be something about being significantly over 80 which makes you and I agree so frequently. Starting to take stock of how we got to where we are, or something!
    I think that the Democrats ought to spend a little time thinking and planning for the 2028 elections, rather than sounding off too much now.
    2026 elections.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,666
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    malcolmg said:

    TimS said:

    Trump’s first inauguration speech in 2017 was a disgrace. I suspect today’s will be less menacing, more crowing. I don’t plan to watch him.

    The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.

    will not last for long , Hamas celebrations yesterday show the way it will go. Hopefully the hostages get out before all hell breaks out again.
    Israel will get as many hostages out as possible, wait a year or two, then go in again to finish the job of making Gaza uninhabitable. Tragically, this is just a time-out
    Bomb the rubble?
    Essentially, yes

    Stage Two of this "peace plan" requires Israel to relinquish control of Gaza's borders, esp the border with Egypt. That allows Hamas to import more weapons and prepare another attack, and off we go again

    There is simply no way the Israelis will ever agree to this - and TBH I do not blame them. No Israeli government can allow the risk of another October Surprise, if they did and it happened they would be lynched

    So, inevitably, I think, the Israelis will go back to the original longterm plan, which is make Gaze unlivable so it literally no longer exists, and seize the West Bank in toto. The only way this doesn't happen is if Hamas are suddenly replaced by a democratic regime in Gaza that honestly seeks peace, the chances of that seem to be zero - and I likewise don't blame the Gazans for their ongoing hatred of Israel

    Quite depressing, really, let's focus on more cheerful things like our shared excitement at the prospect of THE Donald 2.0!

    The Greater Israel project. What do they do
    with all the Palestinians? Give them a vote and a passport? Or something else to make 3-5mn within GI and beyond disappear?
    Consocialisation
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,326


    Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1.bsky.social‬

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    BREAKING: President Biden just pardoned:

    * General Mark Milley
    * Dr. Anthony Fauci
    * Jan. 6 Committee members of Congress and staffers
    * The police officers who testified before the Jan. 6 Committee

    Biden says these pardons are not an acknowledgment of wrongdoing.

    MRDA.

    Biden just admitted that Fauci fucked up over the pan(dem)ic.
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