Categories
How long will Trump last today? – politicalbetting.com
How long will Trump last today? – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes have a market on the length of Trump’s speech today. In 2017 Trump delivered a 15 minute 1,433 word speech and he delivers a similar speech then the value is on the 14 to 16 minute market at 7/1 but if you expect him to ramble on and on then you might be interested in the 6/5 on 20 minutes or over.
0
Comments
https://x.com/adamjschwarz/status/1881112679143948640?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
..
On those odds I'd go for a fiver on 12-14.
Fpt: It's interesting that the winning number of votes cast Jenrick 127, Kemi 121, Cleverley 27.
The total number of surveys done by readers is around 540 (from the numbers in the article), rather than the approximately 750-800 it was a few years ago.
Would certainly make it a busy day on PB..
https://embrace-autism.com/ketamine-could-diminish-autistic-distreas/
But we need to be clear about which speech we are talking. He’s not going to care much for his audience of Congress in the Rotunda, will save his best words for the later speech to the crowd of supporters at the arena to where he will go after the formalities.
The sight of Hamas fighters looking equally jubilant in Gaza yesterday, guns in hand, is not such great optics for the genius peacemaker. He made a big play to get credit for a ceasefire that had been 8 months in the planning.
a) Its going to be biting cold with a colder wind. He doesn;'t want his hair to be blown off
b) He has a stack of Executive Orders to sign. The ones where he commissions the now pardoned insurrectionists to round up American citizens for deportation can't be held up by a rambling speech about sharks
And since when has Trump ever been concise?
I suspect it'll be quite long, and full of threatening plans.
Though he's probably saving that for the MAGA crowd one.
https://x.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1881163884062765368
But still. It's either a convenient way for people to funnel donations to him off the books, or a demonstration of the limitless capacity for dupes to be duped.
The one saving grace about Trump is that he's definitely in it for the money first and foremost. If he was actually ideologically motivated he would be a lot more dangerous.
In LA, they have no water to put it out...
Yes, that's much less likely than a long rambling speech, but not that unlikely.
People buying Trump Coin are just as silly as those buying Hawk Tuah Coin, although Trump didn’t keep back millions of coins to dump on the market right after the launch.
Trump's success or failure 2025-2029 is viewable from multiple perspectives. Looking only from a USA voter one, Trump will be seen by most to either succeed (economic growth, no stupid wars, migration under control, lower taxes, fewer annoying woke people around etc) or fail (lots of options).
A USA Democrat/liberal, it seems to me, has little to hope for at the moment. If Trump is seen by most to 'succeed', other politics are dormant for now, in cluding Democrat politics. If the project fails then the chance of an ever increasing non democratic Post-Trump autocracy in the USA becomes extremely likely.
Bolton explained Trump's view on China, re: Taiwan. Trump demonstrated this by pointing at the Oval Office table to mean China and his Sharpie pen tip to represent Taiwan, meaning Bolton suggested, that he saw China taking Taiwan as an example of David versus Goliath natural order.
A 'strong man' as POTUS who is unpredictable but loves/thinks there are votes in peace and carries a big stick while keeping his powder dry? There are possibilities on the upside.
If it is anything like last night complete uninterrupted coverage with no 6 o clock news but rolling news all day
Trump's one and a half hour speech last night was played live on both BBC and Sky
On Trump's speech I expect it will be around 15 minutes before he moves to sign his executive orders
I expect our media to be consumed by this for the rest of the week, and most probably the next 4 years
The Sky reporter just now said that it was getting even colder and going indoors was the only option
There is so much you can attack Trump for, but this is not one of them
https://www.thefp.com/p/trump-is-a-demagogue-so-were-his-forebears-adam-rubenstein-philip-terzian
But the next two not so much - and the decision not to declare before the primaries that he wouldn't run again set the stage for the electoral disaster.
Whether a candidate other than him, who won a fully contested set of primaries (even if it were still Harris), would have then gone on to win is of course unknowable. But I think they'd have stood a far better chance.
On the ideology, I do not doubt that Trump believes in political things, but my point is that these do not provide his main (or Indeed secondary) motivation. So if something proves to be too difficult, or annoying, or gets in the way of money-making or attention-seeking, then he's likely to drop it. He doesn't have the ideological fervour to push something through.
That kind of hard work is for shmucks.
So Trump could have one of those loons run for President, with himself as Vice President. Then the new President resigns on his first day in office, and, bingo, another four years of Trump as President, maybe with the loon as his VP as reward.
I've been having nightmares recently...
I think what changed it was the Dems outperforming expectations in the midterms. At which point hubris set in.
Weak people who wanted an even weaker person nominally in charge of them.
Garland and Mayorkas must be candidates for the most inept cabinet ministers the USA has ever had.
If I was Trump I would give them a huge reward for helping make him President again - it would also drive the Dems into conspiracy theorising madness.
Further he'll be 79 in June which of course means that at the close of his term he'll be over 80. Will he still be composed mantis then? Biden was OK when he was elected, but he's unquestionably gone downhill, mentally, in the past couple of years.
Thee's also the question as to whether the Republicans will hold either House of Congress after the mid-terms.
He's the definition of vacuous, glibly expressing whatever principles he's decided he has on any given day.
... But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
The bookies will give you very good odds for your prediction.
Does anyone have a good idea for a platform to drop short notes onto, so I can find them again and link to for friends to see, and for me to find again.
I'm think of the longish comments I occasionally make here, that I do want to refer back to sometimes.
In my head I'd probably use the free not self-managed version of Wordpress ie wordpress.com, or possibly Substack.
Does anyone have any thought / suggestions.
I do quite like public version of Substack.
We all agree that Biden's mistake was not to have stood aside before the Primaries, but he's convinced that his mistake was standing aside at all. Biden's record is to be the only person to defeat Trump in a Presidential election, and to have stood aside twice and watched the Democrats lose those two times.
Given the pro-Trump tilt on the Supreme Court, I think he'd have a fair shot at succeeding.
One story coming out this week, is that it was Sen. Schumer who was given the job (by Obama) of telling Biden he couldn’t win and needed to stand aside.
There’s definitely some bad blood between the Biden and Harris camps too, Harris and Mrs Biden have blanked each other at a number of social occasions since the election.
Yes the correct thing to do with hindsight was to run a full primary season, with or without the incumbent, but Biden’s team was convinced he was the only person who could beat Trump.
Your premise implies he is eligible to be elected to the office of VP. That is not the case.
1) Donald Trump.
2) Elon Musk.
The wider problem for the Democrats is how do they find an inspiring Obama style candidate to take on Republicans in 2029
(I do not mean 'average' muscles; just the ones that develop muscles for show.
I think more likely Trump won't stand again as he'll be too old, but he will want to kick-start a family succession, Kim-style.
My colleague has a son who can is heavily into powerlifting. He wants to try and break the all time world record for squat of 380 kg at or under 75 kg bodyweight. He's slightly over that weight and can do 370. He isn't yet 18 !