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Will Starmer go full Truss and sack the Chancellor this year? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468
    Crime and Sky High Taxes are killing off London says Tech entrepreneur

    Of course overall crime stats may be coming down but if your reality is you experience crime and that crime persists then so what.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/off-the-charts-lawlessness-and-sky-high-taxes-are-killing-london-warns-major-tech-investor/ar-BB1r8Kzh?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=42e3ce05398549508a0bfb2bef070938&ei=11
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,783
    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,242
    Leon said:

    Did anyone expect Labour to be THIS bad? Anyone?

    Even the most die-hard Reform-Tory anti Labourite skinhead Thatcherite?

    It’s quite astonishing how astonishingly shit they have been at absolutely everything, from day 1, and without any let-up, and it gets even worse from week to week

    I have to admit they've taken me by surprise, and I was fairly sure they'd be a disaster.

    They've made a dog's breakfast of a budget - anti-jobs, anti-growth, and shed loads of extra unsustainable borrowing.

    Right now they're systematically wrecking the academy parts of the school system, at the behest of their union paymasters.

    Everything they touch they seem intent on turning to dust.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,948
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,932
    Manchester Airport closes runways due to snow
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468
    Nigelb said:

    Only 22% of US voters polled are directly opposed to the TikTok ban.

    But...
    Net Support (for ban) Among:

    18-29: -16%
    30-44: +15%
    45-64: +36%
    65+: +48%

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1877117500288020495

    Interesting those favouring the ban are those least likely to use it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,080
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mayor of Los Angeles totally ignoring reporters questioning her on the fires in her city.

    https://x.com/jo_arizona/status/1877254162737418523

    It’s said that the fire department budget was cut, and that they didn’t have the resources to carry out preventive works in the areas now on fire.

    The latest fires are in Hollywood Hills, an area of mostly large houses and a lot of trees. Not somewhere you’d usually build given the fire risk, but this is some of the most expensive property in the city.

    Also stories of insurance companies cancelling fire cover because of the lack of action from the city to stop the fires every year. The suggestion is that they were prevented from raising prices sufficiently to cover the risk, so they stopped fire cover completely.

    I think that the proposed budget cuts to the fire department didn't go ahead, they were negotiated away.

    It would help if rich Libertarian landlords actually paid their property taxes to fund the fire department of course. There's always a tweet:

    https://bsky.app/profile/kaylan.bsky.social/post/3lfa4j2nfjs2p
    Doesn’t LA have some of the highest property and income takes in the whole country?

    The least you’d expect is a municipality and fire service that can manage the forest, given that there’s going to be fires there every year. The suggestion is that they’ve not been clearing the scrub from the forest floor, not maintaining fire breaks (although they may be of limited use in the high winds) and not maintaining water reservoirs for fire hydrants.

    I suspect that there will be quite the political fallout once the immediate emergency has been dealt with, with various elected officials trying to deflect the blame onto each other. I suspect that a lot of those living in Hollywood Hills especially, are people with a public profile who can make a lot of noise. It’s a popular area with entertainment types as one might expect.

    The fire chief wrote a public memo to the mayor only last month.
    https://x.com/darrellcbassist/status/1877249863160627339
    Which all costs money.If you don't pay enough tax, you don't get the services.
    The problems in LA aren’t from a lack of money, the City, County, and State governments all have plenty of money.

    The problems are the politicians and the allocation of that money, funding pet projects and woke/DEI stuff and not the basics that the residents expect, like a fire service and forestry management.
    Apparently they've been cutting everything else while directing all the funding to the LAPD. Hardly the wokeist policy in the world.

    Mad how literally anything can be blamed on DEI now, including wildfires.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,550
    Taz said:

    Crime and Sky High Taxes are killing off London says Tech entrepreneur

    Of course overall crime stats may be coming down but if your reality is you experience crime and that crime persists then so what.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/off-the-charts-lawlessness-and-sky-high-taxes-are-killing-london-warns-major-tech-investor/ar-BB1r8Kzh?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=42e3ce05398549508a0bfb2bef070938&ei=11

    That sounds suspiciously like “lived experience”
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,853
    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,618
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I read in the FT that Muskybaby has a team of advisors working on ways to remove Starmer…

    Morning all.

    Welcome to the script of Goldfinger, except with the villain as a child-man 1990's Wayne,'s World character.
    Lex Luther. Narcisisst mad scientist genius turned power obsessed CEO turned super villain.
    Shouldn't that be Lex Loser?
    Yes, because whenever I look at the richest man in the world and possibly the most powerful private citizen on the planet and one the greatest engineers and inventors of this or any time, I always think “loser”, which is very different to how I feel when I look at semi retired provincial quacks from Leicester
    Indeed, it would be weak-minded and infantile to put people like Musk and Putin on a pedestal. BTW, have you come out for the AfD yet, like your heroes?
    Such fun

    Nobody in Germany wants to deal with the heirs to Hitler but everyone is good on deals with the heirs to Stalin

    Who murdered more people
    As far as I see it Merz and Scholz would rather deal with each other than the AfD or heirs to Stalin
    Except they wont have a majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,537
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Only 22% of US voters polled are directly opposed to the TikTok ban.

    But...
    Net Support (for ban) Among:

    18-29: -16%
    30-44: +15%
    45-64: +36%
    65+: +48%

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1877117500288020495

    Interesting those favouring the ban are those least likely to use it.
    Covid nightclubs the second lol.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,233
    Anyhow, here's my entry for the @Benpointer Competition:

    1. 34%, 30%, 14%, 27%
    2. 22%, 18%, 6%, 15%
    3. 6
    4. 1
    5. 2
    6. 3
    7. 104
    8. 2.9%
    9. 130
    10. 1.1%
    11. 2.5%
    12. 0.8%
    13. 135
    14. f*** knows, so go with last year's 2-2; I won't be watching.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,614

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    You are accusing people you have never met and know nothing about of being selfish. I’m not surprised. These people are not selfish, they are all people who donate to arts, charities, help out. They worked hard to build companies but reached a point where they felt that they weren’t appreciated and would be the scapegoats and cash cows for a society that has been told that they are a problem.

    They have children, will have grandchildren and don’t want to be constantly abused on one hand then expected to shell out more and more by the abusers.

    Much easier however to throw mud at them than actually think about how the situation has come to be.

    Envy is probably the worst British vice and the country always suffers for it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,618

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,045
    When is Reeves leaving? I’ve not seen a government so woefully inept, and I was super critical of the Tories.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,018
    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    Not the point I am making. I have no idea if it is true or not, but just pointing out @leon's impeccable source of data and his often claimed fame for being infallible.

    This time it is X, that great source of accurate information. Last time (for exactly the same claim) it was survey, quoted somewhere in the media, that was so riddled with holes a blue whale could pass through it. It was possibly the worst example of duff statistics I think that More or Less have run for awhile. yet there was Leon running with it. Yet he claims to be never wrong.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,550

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,227

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I read in the FT that Muskybaby has a team of advisors working on ways to remove Starmer…

    Morning all.

    Welcome to the script of Goldfinger, except with the villain as a child-man 1990's Wayne,'s World character.
    Lex Luther. Narcisisst mad scientist genius turned power obsessed CEO turned super villain.
    Shouldn't that be Lex Loser?
    Yes, because whenever I look at the richest man in the world and possibly the most powerful private citizen on the planet and one the greatest engineers and inventors of this or any time, I always think “loser”, which is very different to how I feel when I look at semi retired provincial quacks from Leicester
    Indeed, it would be weak-minded and infantile to put people like Musk and Putin on a pedestal. BTW, have you come out for the AfD yet, like your heroes?
    Such fun

    Nobody in Germany wants to deal with the heirs to Hitler but everyone is good on deals with the heirs to Stalin

    Who murdered more people
    As far as I see it Merz and Scholz would rather deal with each other than the AfD or heirs to Stalin
    Except they wont have a majority.
    They will
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,040
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mayor of Los Angeles totally ignoring reporters questioning her on the fires in her city.

    https://x.com/jo_arizona/status/1877254162737418523

    It’s said that the fire department budget was cut, and that they didn’t have the resources to carry out preventive works in the areas now on fire.

    The latest fires are in Hollywood Hills, an area of mostly large houses and a lot of trees. Not somewhere you’d usually build given the fire risk, but this is some of the most expensive property in the city.

    Also stories of insurance companies cancelling fire cover because of the lack of action from the city to stop the fires every year. The suggestion is that they were prevented from raising prices sufficiently to cover the risk, so they stopped fire cover completely.

    I think that the proposed budget cuts to the fire department didn't go ahead, they were negotiated away.

    It would help if rich Libertarian landlords actually paid their property taxes to fund the fire department of course. There's always a tweet:

    https://bsky.app/profile/kaylan.bsky.social/post/3lfa4j2nfjs2p
    Doesn’t LA have some of the highest property and income takes in the whole country?

    The least you’d expect is a municipality and fire service that can manage the forest, given that there’s going to be fires there every year. The suggestion is that they’ve not been clearing the scrub from the forest floor, not maintaining fire breaks (although they may be of limited use in the high winds) and not maintaining water reservoirs for fire hydrants.

    I suspect that there will be quite the political fallout once the immediate emergency has been dealt with, with various elected officials trying to deflect the blame onto each other. I suspect that a lot of those living in Hollywood Hills especially, are people with a public profile who can make a lot of noise. It’s a popular area with entertainment types as one might expect.

    The fire chief wrote a public memo to the mayor only last month.
    https://x.com/darrellcbassist/status/1877249863160627339
    Which all costs money.If you don't pay enough tax, you don't get the services.
    The problems in LA aren’t from a lack of money, the City, County, and State governments all have plenty of money.

    The problems are the politicians and the allocation of that money, funding pet projects and woke/DEI stuff and not the basics that the residents expect, like a fire service and forestry management.
    Apparently they've been cutting everything else while directing all the funding to the LAPD. Hardly the wokeist policy in the world.

    Mad how literally anything can be blamed on DEI now, including wildfires.
    On a slight tangent, but a lot can depend on individuals. I know a fireman in the USA whose much-loathed boss has finally left. They have the budget for better equipment and have for ages, so they're rapidly replacing decades old gear for stuff they could've easily afforded before but the (to use an Americanism) 'douchenozzle' was blocking that for some reason.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,699
    a

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    It's interesting that some people like the half the idea of Global Britain - easy to come here and work. But the corollary to that is that people find it easier to leave.

    Take one bloke in my team. Indian, first generation immigrant. Got wife and baby, no school as yet. Been in the country about 6 years. Why shouldn't he move to Berlin, or wherever?

    He looks at what he is paying in taxes and what he gets for it. And is not impressed. Transactional, maybe. But why should he think differently?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,948

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    Sorry. What? People who decide to live somewhere else with lower taxes are “utterly selfish”? Perhaps they feel countries with lower taxes will also be more welcoming to free enterprise and innovation? And - more importantly - it’s their money and they can do what they like

    You often make painfully moronic remarks but this one is pretty up there
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,932

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    Except for the next 4 years that is Labour's problem
  • glwglw Posts: 9,984

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    I agree with that, what I don't understand is why a government whose entire prospectus is predicated on achieving above trend economic growth could not understand that sentiment matters a great deal when it comes to investment. Investing is as much an emotional decision as it is an intellectual one. How people feel has a great bearing on whether an economy will grow or not, so months of saying everything is awful can be both true and entirely counterproductive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,550

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    Except for the next 4 years that is Labour's problem
    I am not sure what your point is. You can validly criticise Labour for this but if the party you support wouldn’t do anything differently it just comes across as ridiculous.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,696
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mayor of Los Angeles totally ignoring reporters questioning her on the fires in her city.

    https://x.com/jo_arizona/status/1877254162737418523

    It’s said that the fire department budget was cut, and that they didn’t have the resources to carry out preventive works in the areas now on fire.

    The latest fires are in Hollywood Hills, an area of mostly large houses and a lot of trees. Not somewhere you’d usually build given the fire risk, but this is some of the most expensive property in the city.

    Also stories of insurance companies cancelling fire cover because of the lack of action from the city to stop the fires every year. The suggestion is that they were prevented from raising prices sufficiently to cover the risk, so they stopped fire cover completely.

    I think that the proposed budget cuts to the fire department didn't go ahead, they were negotiated away.

    It would help if rich Libertarian landlords actually paid their property taxes to fund the fire department of course. There's always a tweet:

    https://bsky.app/profile/kaylan.bsky.social/post/3lfa4j2nfjs2p
    Doesn’t LA have some of the highest property and income takes in the whole country?

    The least you’d expect is a municipality and fire service that can manage the forest, given that there’s going to be fires there every year. The suggestion is that they’ve not been clearing the scrub from the forest floor, not maintaining fire breaks (although they may be of limited use in the high winds) and not maintaining water reservoirs for fire hydrants.

    I suspect that there will be quite the political fallout once the immediate emergency has been dealt with, with various elected officials trying to deflect the blame onto each other. I suspect that a lot of those living in Hollywood Hills especially, are people with a public profile who can make a lot of noise. It’s a popular area with entertainment types as one might expect.

    The fire chief wrote a public memo to the mayor only last month.
    https://x.com/darrellcbassist/status/1877249863160627339
    Which all costs money.If you don't pay enough tax, you don't get the services.
    The problems in LA aren’t from a lack of money, the City, County, and State governments all have plenty of money.

    The problems are the politicians and the allocation of that money, funding pet projects and woke/DEI stuff and not the basics that the residents expect, like a fire service and forestry management.
    Apparently they've been cutting everything else while directing all the funding to the LAPD. Hardly the wokeist policy in the world.

    Mad how literally anything can be blamed on DEI now, including wildfires.
    What I'm not getting from this discussion is who owns the woodlands/scrublands?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,699

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mayor of Los Angeles totally ignoring reporters questioning her on the fires in her city.

    https://x.com/jo_arizona/status/1877254162737418523

    It’s said that the fire department budget was cut, and that they didn’t have the resources to carry out preventive works in the areas now on fire.

    The latest fires are in Hollywood Hills, an area of mostly large houses and a lot of trees. Not somewhere you’d usually build given the fire risk, but this is some of the most expensive property in the city.

    Also stories of insurance companies cancelling fire cover because of the lack of action from the city to stop the fires every year. The suggestion is that they were prevented from raising prices sufficiently to cover the risk, so they stopped fire cover completely.

    I think that the proposed budget cuts to the fire department didn't go ahead, they were negotiated away.

    It would help if rich Libertarian landlords actually paid their property taxes to fund the fire department of course. There's always a tweet:

    https://bsky.app/profile/kaylan.bsky.social/post/3lfa4j2nfjs2p
    Doesn’t LA have some of the highest property and income takes in the whole country?

    The least you’d expect is a municipality and fire service that can manage the forest, given that there’s going to be fires there every year. The suggestion is that they’ve not been clearing the scrub from the forest floor, not maintaining fire breaks (although they may be of limited use in the high winds) and not maintaining water reservoirs for fire hydrants.

    I suspect that there will be quite the political fallout once the immediate emergency has been dealt with, with various elected officials trying to deflect the blame onto each other. I suspect that a lot of those living in Hollywood Hills especially, are people with a public profile who can make a lot of noise. It’s a popular area with entertainment types as one might expect.

    The fire chief wrote a public memo to the mayor only last month.
    https://x.com/darrellcbassist/status/1877249863160627339
    Which all costs money.If you don't pay enough tax, you don't get the services.
    The problems in LA aren’t from a lack of money, the City, County, and State governments all have plenty of money.

    The problems are the politicians and the allocation of that money, funding pet projects and woke/DEI stuff and not the basics that the residents expect, like a fire service and forestry management.
    Apparently they've been cutting everything else while directing all the funding to the LAPD. Hardly the wokeist policy in the world.

    Mad how literally anything can be blamed on DEI now, including wildfires.
    On a slight tangent, but a lot can depend on individuals. I know a fireman in the USA whose much-loathed boss has finally left. They have the budget for better equipment and have for ages, so they're rapidly replacing decades old gear for stuff they could've easily afforded before but the (to use an Americanism) 'douchenozzle' was blocking that for some reason.
    I would suspect that the douchnozzle had a stake in the maintenance of the old equipment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,537
    edited January 9

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    Would they have been trying to force money down the throat of the Mauritius gov't though ? Yes, a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things but to misquote my gran "Look after the million and the billions look after themself" ;)

    Labour needs to accept it'll be a 1 term gov't and make more hard choices like WASPI, WFA and quite honestly dumping the triple lock.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,132
    Foxy said:

    I don't see particular value with this bet.

    Reeves is as inept at communications as Starmer, but the fundamental problem remains. The national finances have been running on empty for years. It's either tax rises or massive austerity.

    It shows how useless Badenoch is that she didn't go with this as PMQs, rather than her self defeating bandwagon six questions.

    The thing that is most likely to save Labour's bacon at the next GE is how useless the alternatives are. Rupert Lowe's comments in Parliament yesterday were even more disgraceful.

    If she'd have asked about the economy at PMQs you would have called her useless for not asking questions about the big news story of the day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,932

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    Except for the next 4 years that is Labour's problem
    I am not sure what your point is. You can validly criticise Labour for this but if the party you support wouldn’t do anything differently it just comes across as ridiculous.
    The conservatives would not have talked down the economy for months nor would they have produced a jobs and growth destroying budget

    This crisis is Labour's and they own it
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,934
    Fun fact: only two chancellors were sacked between 1967 and 2016 - and just one if you exclude being reshuffled to an alternative great office of state.

    Every other one either left office when their party lost a general election on the resignation of the government as a whole (Barber, Healey, Clarke, Darling), or was promoted to PM (Major, Brown), or died in office (Macleod), or resigned over political differences (Lawson).

    The only two exceptions were Howe, who later brought down Thatcher, and Lamont, who was discredited but still caused Major a load of trouble.

    The turbulence and turnover in chancellors since then has done nothing to suggest that sacking chancellors has become any less dangerous for the PMs involved, just that they've become more reckless or desperate in their actions.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,618
    Driver said:

    Foxy said:

    I don't see particular value with this bet.

    Reeves is as inept at communications as Starmer, but the fundamental problem remains. The national finances have been running on empty for years. It's either tax rises or massive austerity.

    It shows how useless Badenoch is that she didn't go with this as PMQs, rather than her self defeating bandwagon six questions.

    The thing that is most likely to save Labour's bacon at the next GE is how useless the alternatives are. Rupert Lowe's comments in Parliament yesterday were even more disgraceful.

    If she'd have asked about the economy at PMQs you would have called her useless for not asking questions about the big news story of the day.
    The problem is this government meant is fking so many thing sat once we need a PMQ every day to cover them,
  • .
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mayor of Los Angeles totally ignoring reporters questioning her on the fires in her city.

    https://x.com/jo_arizona/status/1877254162737418523

    It’s said that the fire department budget was cut, and that they didn’t have the resources to carry out preventive works in the areas now on fire.

    The latest fires are in Hollywood Hills, an area of mostly large houses and a lot of trees. Not somewhere you’d usually build given the fire risk, but this is some of the most expensive property in the city.

    Also stories of insurance companies cancelling fire cover because of the lack of action from the city to stop the fires every year. The suggestion is that they were prevented from raising prices sufficiently to cover the risk, so they stopped fire cover completely.

    I think that the proposed budget cuts to the fire department didn't go ahead, they were negotiated away.

    It would help if rich Libertarian landlords actually paid their property taxes to fund the fire department of course. There's always a tweet:

    https://bsky.app/profile/kaylan.bsky.social/post/3lfa4j2nfjs2p
    Doesn’t LA have some of the highest property and income takes in the whole country?

    The least you’d expect is a municipality and fire service that can manage the forest, given that there’s going to be fires there every year. The suggestion is that they’ve not been clearing the scrub from the forest floor, not maintaining fire breaks (although they may be of limited use in the high winds) and not maintaining water reservoirs for fire hydrants.

    I suspect that there will be quite the political fallout once the immediate emergency has been dealt with, with various elected officials trying to deflect the blame onto each other. I suspect that a lot of those living in Hollywood Hills especially, are people with a public profile who can make a lot of noise. It’s a popular area with entertainment types as one might expect.

    The fire chief wrote a public memo to the mayor only last month.
    https://x.com/darrellcbassist/status/1877249863160627339
    Which all costs money.If you don't pay enough tax, you don't get the services.
    The problems in LA aren’t from a lack of money, the City, County, and State governments all have plenty of money.

    The problems are the politicians and the allocation of that money, funding pet projects and woke/DEI stuff and not the basics that the residents expect, like a fire service and forestry management.
    Now the great and the good, the luvies, millionaires and the property developers have suffered what the little people have to regularly suffer, I'm sure they'll be clamouring for change. I expect the Oscars will hold a fundraiser to help rebuild Anthony Hopkins' second holiday home.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Only 22% of US voters polled are directly opposed to the TikTok ban.

    But...
    Net Support (for ban) Among:

    18-29: -16%
    30-44: +15%
    45-64: +36%
    65+: +48%

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1877117500288020495

    Interesting those favouring the ban are those least likely to use it.
    Covid nightclubs the second lol.
    Excellent point.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,691
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Only 22% of US voters polled are directly opposed to the TikTok ban.

    But...
    Net Support (for ban) Among:

    18-29: -16%
    30-44: +15%
    45-64: +36%
    65+: +48%

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1877117500288020495

    Interesting those favouring the ban are those least likely to use it.
    It's hardly a surprise.
    But it will be interesting to see which way Trump jumps on this.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 242
    Boris was way too loyal and that caused him all sorts of issues.

    Starmer does not share that problem. He has no loyalty, only self preservation - a claim all the credit, share the blame, sort of guy. As long as Reeves serves a purpose, she will survive.

    I don't see her serving a purpose, so she will be gone, quite probably this year, as this shitshow can't continue. 10 year gilts nearing the 5% mark.

    It will wound him and ruin any attempt at displaying incompetence.

    Thoughts with those on here who tried to mock those pointing out the inevitable consequences of the budget. Looking at 'Abonojizza' etc.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,550
    Pulpstar said:

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    Would they have been trying to force money down the throat of the Mauritius gov't though ? Yes, a drop in the ocean in the grand scheme of things but to misquote my gran "Look after the million and the billions look after themself" ;)

    Labour needs to accept it'll be a 1 term gov't and make more hard choices like WASPI, WFA and quite honestly dumping the triple lock.
    Agreed - they probably would have continued to ladle free money to rich Tory-voting pensioners instead ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,177

    When is Reeves leaving? I’ve not seen a government so woefully inept, and I was super critical of the Tories.

    She will only leave when Mr Market pushes her. And only then, when she has hung around (because the PM is too ineffectual to do what is required) long enough to cause lasting damage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,691
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mayor of Los Angeles totally ignoring reporters questioning her on the fires in her city.

    https://x.com/jo_arizona/status/1877254162737418523

    It’s said that the fire department budget was cut, and that they didn’t have the resources to carry out preventive works in the areas now on fire.

    The latest fires are in Hollywood Hills, an area of mostly large houses and a lot of trees. Not somewhere you’d usually build given the fire risk, but this is some of the most expensive property in the city.

    Also stories of insurance companies cancelling fire cover because of the lack of action from the city to stop the fires every year. The suggestion is that they were prevented from raising prices sufficiently to cover the risk, so they stopped fire cover completely.

    I think that the proposed budget cuts to the fire department didn't go ahead, they were negotiated away.

    It would help if rich Libertarian landlords actually paid their property taxes to fund the fire department of course. There's always a tweet:

    https://bsky.app/profile/kaylan.bsky.social/post/3lfa4j2nfjs2p
    Doesn’t LA have some of the highest property and income takes in the whole country?

    The least you’d expect is a municipality and fire service that can manage the forest, given that there’s going to be fires there every year. The suggestion is that they’ve not been clearing the scrub from the forest floor, not maintaining fire breaks (although they may be of limited use in the high winds) and not maintaining water reservoirs for fire hydrants.

    I suspect that there will be quite the political fallout once the immediate emergency has been dealt with, with various elected officials trying to deflect the blame onto each other. I suspect that a lot of those living in Hollywood Hills especially, are people with a public profile who can make a lot of noise. It’s a popular area with entertainment types as one might expect.

    The fire chief wrote a public memo to the mayor only last month.
    https://x.com/darrellcbassist/status/1877249863160627339
    Which all costs money.If you don't pay enough tax, you don't get the services.
    The problems in LA aren’t from a lack of money, the City, County, and State governments all have plenty of money.

    The problems are the politicians and the allocation of that money, funding pet projects and woke/DEI stuff and not the basics that the residents expect, like a fire service and forestry management.
    Apparently they've been cutting everything else while directing all the funding to the LAPD. Hardly the wokeist policy in the world.

    Mad how literally anything can be blamed on DEI now, including wildfires.
    DEI is just a meaningless slogan for the US right now.
    Of universal applicability,
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,018
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    Sorry. What? People who decide to live somewhere else with lower taxes are “utterly selfish”? Perhaps they feel countries with lower taxes will also be more welcoming to free enterprise and innovation? And - more importantly - it’s their money and they can do what they like

    You often make painfully moronic remarks but this one is pretty up there
    A question and a serious one and not being bitchy: You are almost certainly the most mobile person on here. You are hardly in the UK and appear to have no ties to a local community and few family ties and one small, but probably desirable flat in London. Why are you still here?

    I have seriously considered moving to France (and nearly done it) and have/had seriously more ties than you and only haven't because of those ties and also for being much more conservative in my risk taking than you.

    Why haven't you? You wouldn't even have to give up PB.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,651

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    I shall just repeat a comment I have made before -
    You won't get people to call for a smaller state until they (via taxes), and not our grandchildren (via borrowing), are paying for it.
    Taxes are too low.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    I shall just repeat a comment I have made before -
    You won't get people to call for a smaller state until they (via taxes), and not our grandchildren (via borrowing), are paying for it.
    Taxes are too low.
    How high do you think they need to go ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,711
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    If she removes the large concession to higher rate tax payers on their pension contributions it shouldn't affect economic growth.

    It is odd that higher rate tax payers get double the concession (40% instead of 20%) to encourage them to save for their pension. It's low hanging fruit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,853
    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    But the reality is that healthcare demand is fixed, criminal justice has to be fixed, and we need to strengthen our defences.

    It’s an impossible puzzle to fix.
    I think there's scope for big efficiency savings in some areas whilst others truly are down to the bone. The problem is those areas with plenty of fat still to cut aren't going to admit to it; so the only way it's ever going to get done is with something like the Musk/Ramaswamy/Millei approach of a vigorous external actor(s) coming in an saying we don't need this, this, this and this.
    Our national budget is basically healthcare, welfare, police, schools, transport and defence. The rest is noise. And, frankly, it’s telly just health and welfare. Hard to find deep and meaningful cuts.
    When you're spending well over a trillion per year its pretty easy to find deep and meaningful cuts.

    The political problem is that those cuts will be on the old and poor.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 63
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    My wife has found a house she likes in Lugano, we're going to view it in early February. It may be that we leave for Switzerland by the end of 2025.
    Leaving a CHF area for a € zone area. Are you sure?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,853
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    If she removes the large concession to higher rate tax payers on their pension contributions it shouldn't affect economic growth.

    It is odd that higher rate tax payers get double the concession (40% instead of 20%) to encourage them to save for their pension. It's low hanging fruit.
    Do that and we'll hear the 'doctors will stop work after pension tax rise' stories.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468

    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    But the reality is that healthcare demand is fixed, criminal justice has to be fixed, and we need to strengthen our defences.

    It’s an impossible puzzle to fix.
    I think there's scope for big efficiency savings in some areas whilst others truly are down to the bone. The problem is those areas with plenty of fat still to cut aren't going to admit to it; so the only way it's ever going to get done is with something like the Musk/Ramaswamy/Millei approach of a vigorous external actor(s) coming in an saying we don't need this, this, this and this.
    Our national budget is basically healthcare, welfare, police, schools, transport and defence. The rest is noise. And, frankly, it’s telly just health and welfare. Hard to find deep and meaningful cuts.
    When you're spending well over a trillion per year its pretty easy to find deep and meaningful cuts.

    The political problem is that those cuts will be on the old and poor.
    Well whenever they talk about cuts the recipient of the cuts will respond by saying this means cuts to front line services to manage Public support against said cuts.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,711
    edited January 9

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    We don't need to balance the budget. That's the naive Thatcher housewife fallacy.

    The debt can continue to grow as long as it roughly keeps pace with economic growth.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,691
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    Cutting spending is also bad for growth.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    If she removes the large concession to higher rate tax payers on their pension contributions it shouldn't affect economic growth.

    It is odd that higher rate tax payers get double the concession (40% instead of 20%) to encourage them to save for their pension. It's low hanging fruit.
    She could even change it to 25% or 30% across the board which helps the lower paid too
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,618
    Barnesian said:

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    We don't need to balance the budget. That's the naive Thatcher housewife fallacy.

    The debt can continue to grow as long as it roughly keeps pace with economic growth.
    There is no growth
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468

    Barnesian said:

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    We don't need to balance the budget. That's the naive Thatcher housewife fallacy.

    The debt can continue to grow as long as it roughly keeps pace with economic growth.
    There is no growth
    Reeves is trying to tax her way to growth. Hardly a winning strategy.

    It will be "one off wealth tax on millionaires" next.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,934
    Barnesian said:

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    We don't need to balance the budget. That's the naive Thatcher housewife fallacy.

    The debt can continue to grow as long as it roughly keeps pace with economic growth.
    Sure. But it isn't. And really, debt as a share of GDP should be falling during periods of growth so that it can rise during recessions without creating a graph that looks like a series of steps.

    Of course, the problem is that there isn't any growth even though there should be, which is down mostly to structural constraints which neither this government nor the last one are doing much about. The problem is political rather than financial or economic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,651

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    That’s the most extreme ultranationalist comment I’ve ever seen on here.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,618
    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    We don't need to balance the budget. That's the naive Thatcher housewife fallacy.

    The debt can continue to grow as long as it roughly keeps pace with economic growth.
    There is no growth
    Reeves is trying to tax her way to growth. Hardly a winning strategy.

    It will be "one off wealth tax on millionaires" next.
    That'll really upset the BMA
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,699
    a

    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    But the reality is that healthcare demand is fixed, criminal justice has to be fixed, and we need to strengthen our defences.

    It’s an impossible puzzle to fix.
    I think there's scope for big efficiency savings in some areas whilst others truly are down to the bone. The problem is those areas with plenty of fat still to cut aren't going to admit to it; so the only way it's ever going to get done is with something like the Musk/Ramaswamy/Millei approach of a vigorous external actor(s) coming in an saying we don't need this, this, this and this.
    Our national budget is basically healthcare, welfare, police, schools, transport and defence. The rest is noise. And, frankly, it’s telly just health and welfare. Hard to find deep and meaningful cuts.
    When you're spending well over a trillion per year its pretty easy to find deep and meaningful cuts.

    The political problem is that those cuts will be on the old and poor.
    No.

    As I've said, many times before, what we need to do is to embed in government systemic system improvement. As continuous, ongoing thing.

    You're not going to get 5% costs cut in 10 minutes. But a rolling program of process reduction and aligning processes between areas of government could, I think, deliver a 1 percent or 2 per year. Together with sensible technology upgrades (no big bangs).

    Continuously rebuild the Ship of State.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,040
    Easy spending cut for Labour is £9bn to Mauritius.

    But it's virtue spending as a luxury belief for them to show how wonderful they are. So I imagine it'll be sacred.

    There have been more consultations/murmurings about Leeds getting a tram system. I expect this to be cancelled. Yet again (not party political, it's happened under them all, repeatedly).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,596
    ToryJim said:

    Morning. I don’t see Reeves going myself. The calibre of replacements isn’t there. Yvette Cooper would be a good choice as she’s a far more experienced political player but you then have an issue of who to replace her with as well as the fact that the tabloids would probably reheat their misogynistic tendencies and suggest that she was a marionette controlled Gepetto like by her husband.

    Someone up thread hit on the nub of matters when they said that we have had two recent governments with good majorities that are all at sea. I think that speaks to a deep malaise about politics, in the past governments could rely on a support system of true believers allied with a mass of benefit of the doubt supporters. The former group included those who had similarities to the latter in that they might not get all their ideological wish list implemented but would still support their side by and large, the latter group were your traditional floating voter. I think the advent of rolling news with more rapid news cycles plus the bombarding nature of social media with if not ‘fake news’ certainly highly curated news has fragmented the true believers and eradicated any kind of benefit of the doubt. Sadly I can’t see how you reestablish those conditions upon which good government really depends.

    Indeed. I made a similar point in my Blob article here: https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/28/the-blob/

    PART 9. WHERE ARE WE

    It is 2024. The UK Government is finding it more and more difficult to exert control, and the 2010-2024 governments lost control more than once. It cannot manufacture consent to win an argument because the Internet will counter-argue whatever the cause. It cannot deliver the public services demanded by the public because private bodies will defy them. It cannot define justice externally and internally because international and national courts will override them. It cannot govern the Celtic nations because they are self-governed. It promises everything and delivers nothing.


  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,801
    Sandpit said:

    An early entry for the picture of the year competition:


    Source: https://x.com/leannespurs/status/1877233917033357412

    Ouch.

    What I noticed in one of the naughty drone shots was that the trees weren't actually burned - it was purely the ground vegetation and the housing. The tree tops still appeared to be green.

    Perhaps building mostly wooden houses close together in a fire zone isn't a good idea.

    Fingers crossed they can get it under control now the wind is dropping.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,711

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    If she removes the large concession to higher rate tax payers on their pension contributions it shouldn't affect economic growth.

    It is odd that higher rate tax payers get double the concession (40% instead of 20%) to encourage them to save for their pension. It's low hanging fruit.
    Do that and we'll hear the 'doctors will stop work after pension tax rise' stories.
    Quite. That's what happened before her budget. She should face them down.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,596
    edited January 9
    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    (snip)
    Where is "here" please?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,853
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,711

    Barnesian said:

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    We don't need to balance the budget. That's the naive Thatcher housewife fallacy.

    The debt can continue to grow as long as it roughly keeps pace with economic growth.
    There is no growth
    Growth through the cycle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,537
    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    If she removes the large concession to higher rate tax payers on their pension contributions it shouldn't affect economic growth.

    It is odd that higher rate tax payers get double the concession (40% instead of 20%) to encourage them to save for their pension. It's low hanging fruit.
    She could even change it to 25% or 30% across the board which helps the lower paid too
    You'd have thought this would be the sort of thinking Reeves would have been able to do in opposition seeing as they were massively odds on to form the next Gov't, but clearly they didn't !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,537

    Sandpit said:

    An early entry for the picture of the year competition:


    Source: https://x.com/leannespurs/status/1877233917033357412

    Ouch.

    What I noticed in one of the naughty drone shots was that the trees weren't actually burned - it was purely the ground vegetation and the housing. The tree tops still appeared to be green.

    Perhaps building mostly wooden houses close together in a fire zone isn't a good idea.

    Fingers crossed they can get it under control now the wind is dropping.
    Isn't wood for the USA like bricks for the UK ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,288

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
    Too old to remember his views as well. Within a month he will proclaim London the best city in the world again.
  • I have to say, much as I think the NHS is important, that devoting so much money to it at the expense of the green growth plan, was very odd politics

    The idea seems to have been that NHS improvements would be the most tangible feelgood factor for voters before an election, but a lack of growth effects social and economic confidence across the board. The previous Government performed no better, though.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,934
    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    biggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    But the reality is that healthcare demand is fixed, criminal justice has to be fixed, and we need to strengthen our defences.

    It’s an impossible puzzle to fix.
    I think there's scope for big efficiency savings in some areas whilst others truly are down to the bone. The problem is those areas with plenty of fat still to cut aren't going to admit to it; so the only way it's ever going to get done is with something like the Musk/Ramaswamy/Millei approach of a vigorous external actor(s) coming in an saying we don't need this, this, this and this.
    Our national budget is basically healthcare, welfare, police, schools, transport and defence. The rest is noise. And, frankly, it’s telly just health and welfare. Hard to find deep and meaningful cuts.
    I assume you're counting pensions in with healthcare there?

    Labour is making the right noises about health and social care but is doing sod all about it. There are significant friction savings to be made by getting a smoother service, which will not just save money but deliver better outcomes. But it will mean restructuring processes and controls, which means upsetting some politicians, civil servants and private sector suppliers, which may be the real blocker.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,468
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    If she removes the large concession to higher rate tax payers on their pension contributions it shouldn't affect economic growth.

    It is odd that higher rate tax payers get double the concession (40% instead of 20%) to encourage them to save for their pension. It's low hanging fruit.
    She could even change it to 25% or 30% across the board which helps the lower paid too
    You'd have thought this would be the sort of thinking Reeves would have been able to do in opposition seeing as they were massively odds on to form the next Gov't, but clearly they didn't !
    They were supposedly a govt in waiting with all of their policies and plans in place for when they came to power.

    How could they be so ill prepared. It beggars belief.

    I don't think it was in doubt from the Truss era they would form the next govt.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,948
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    Sorry. What? People who decide to live somewhere else with lower taxes are “utterly selfish”? Perhaps they feel countries with lower taxes will also be more welcoming to free enterprise and innovation? And - more importantly - it’s their money and they can do what they like

    You often make painfully moronic remarks but this one is pretty up there
    A question and a serious one and not being bitchy: You are almost certainly the most mobile person on here. You are hardly in the UK and appear to have no ties to a local community and few family ties and one small, but probably desirable flat in London. Why are you still here?

    I have seriously considered moving to France (and nearly done it) and have/had seriously more ties than you and only haven't because of those ties and also for being much more conservative in my risk taking than you.

    Why haven't you? You wouldn't even have to give up PB.
    It's a fair question, and one I often ask!

    However you possibly under-estimate my ties. I have one older daughter who - until recently - lived near me in London. I love her to bits and like her company. However she turned 18 last year and is now at Uni in Scotland so that's one major tie gone (or at least much weaker). My other daughter is in Australia but it is still a slight tie, she is also turning 18 and when she starts traveling London will be right up there on her list

    On top of that I have quite a big extended family, mainly in Cornwall, and - maybe more importantly - a good number of friends in London, or - if they are not in London - when they go travelling they will nearly always pass through London - from LA, NYC, Europe, Bangkok etc. London is a good place to catch people on the go

    It's a combo of all these things that have kept me from making a permanent move, plus two more things. First work and in-person meetings. They do happen and they happen in London and they are valuable. Second, one other huge thing. I travel all the time for free, it's my second job. And London is a brilliant base from which to travel. Paradoxically

    However as time passes (dwindles?) I do think about slipping anchor entirely. One option on my list is to rent out my flat, or Airbnb it, and be a genuine nomad, I have friends around the world, I love moving, I can still organise travel wherever I am. I did 4 months permanent nomadism a couple of years back and loved it - I could do 3 months here, then move on, then move on again, I like the idea of being entirely untethered (others would hate it)

    So, who knows

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,194

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    Except for the next 4 years that is Labour's problem
    I am not sure what your point is. You can validly criticise Labour for this but if the party you support wouldn’t do anything differently it just comes across as ridiculous.
    The conservatives would not have talked down the economy for months nor would they have produced a jobs and growth destroying budget

    This crisis is Labour's and they own it
    They have squandered the golden legacy?
  • Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
    London was full of minorities in the 1990"s too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,288
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I can't see any alternative Labour Chancellor doing much different so I expect her to stay. Given the need to cut borrowing that means either further higher taxes or spending cuts and the Labour Party base and unions would revolt unless it was the former

    They can revolt as much as they want, but this is the reality and drastic cuts in spending and increase taxes is her only path, otherwise the IMF are waiting in the wings
    More taxes are going to throttle economic growth, the reality is she needs to cut spending.
    If she removes the large concession to higher rate tax payers on their pension contributions it shouldn't affect economic growth.

    It is odd that higher rate tax payers get double the concession (40% instead of 20%) to encourage them to save for their pension. It's low hanging fruit.
    The state should subsidise pensions up to about 500k in total, beyond that it is better that higher earners spend more now than save more.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,801
    Taz said:

    Barnesian said:

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    We don't need to balance the budget. That's the naive Thatcher housewife fallacy.

    The debt can continue to grow as long as it roughly keeps pace with economic growth.
    There is no growth
    Reeves is trying to tax her way to growth. Hardly a winning strategy.

    It will be "one off wealth tax on millionaires" next.
    I'm wondering if I've chosen the right time to retire (early)...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,700

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    Labours mistake as I’ve continually pointed out was not reversing the employee NI cuts as unaffordable
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,651

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
    London was full of minorities in the 1990"s too.
    The demographics of London have changed substantially since 1990.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,934

    Easy spending cut for Labour is £9bn to Mauritius.

    But it's virtue spending as a luxury belief for them to show how wonderful they are. So I imagine it'll be sacred.

    There have been more consultations/murmurings about Leeds getting a tram system. I expect this to be cancelled. Yet again (not party political, it's happened under them all, repeatedly).

    To be fair, trams are just expensive and inflexible buses, that disrupt the city for many years while the streets are dug up to put the rails in. A metro system is the way to go, particularly for the centre - it can run above ground elsewhere.

    Getting it built would require changes to processes though. The majority of the cost is in regulation.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,801
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    An early entry for the picture of the year competition:


    Source: https://x.com/leannespurs/status/1877233917033357412

    Ouch.

    What I noticed in one of the naughty drone shots was that the trees weren't actually burned - it was purely the ground vegetation and the housing. The tree tops still appeared to be green.

    Perhaps building mostly wooden houses close together in a fire zone isn't a good idea.

    Fingers crossed they can get it under control now the wind is dropping.
    Isn't wood for the USA like bricks for the UK ?
    Indeed. Few clay pits, many trees.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,086
    Reeves isn't going anywhere and unless you are the daughter of a duke you aren't going to enough drinks parties to meet, among all the guests, 22 couples who are about to leave the UK for tax/other reasons.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,288

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
    London was full of minorities in the 1990"s too.
    The demographics of London have changed substantially since 1990.
    They have been changing substantially for most of the last couple of hundred years. Nothing new about that.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,596
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    An early entry for the picture of the year competition:


    Source: https://x.com/leannespurs/status/1877233917033357412

    Ouch.

    What I noticed in one of the naughty drone shots was that the trees weren't actually burned - it was purely the ground vegetation and the housing. The tree tops still appeared to be green.

    Perhaps building mostly wooden houses close together in a fire zone isn't a good idea.

    Fingers crossed they can get it under control now the wind is dropping.
    Isn't wood for the USA like bricks for the UK ?
    I think so. I read somewhere the other day (could be here) that wood has an advantage in dangerous areas (eg tornado alley), being faster to rebuild plus less dangerous if it collapses around you.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,948

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
    Except that I really love big cities, all around the world. Tokyo and Osaka were magnificent last autumn. I really liked Busan and Seoul. Even Manila had an interesting edge

    I loved Vancouver. I enjoyed the Olympics in Paris. OK I hated Geneva but that's a village

    Right now I am in Bangkok and it's blissful, in an hour I shall go to the gym, work up a sweat, then step out into the sweet tropical air and the moist tropical stars and have a gin and tonic on soi 8 with a friend. That's my idea of heaven

    So you'd have a point about cities if I now hated all big cities, but it ain't the case

    What is true is that as I age my tolerance of the British climate November-March decreases year on year, and I've never exactly loved it
  • Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
    London was full of minorities in the 1990"s too.
    The demographics of London have changed substantially since 1990.
    I know, but often in quite complex ways depending on the area. In my own particular area, there are actually now more Continental Europeans living in the streets that were mainly
    from people from the Subcontinent 20 years ago.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,699
    a

    Easy spending cut for Labour is £9bn to Mauritius.

    But it's virtue spending as a luxury belief for them to show how wonderful they are. So I imagine it'll be sacred.

    There have been more consultations/murmurings about Leeds getting a tram system. I expect this to be cancelled. Yet again (not party political, it's happened under them all, repeatedly).

    To be fair, trams are just expensive and inflexible buses, that disrupt the city for many years while the streets are dug up to put the rails in. A metro system is the way to go, particularly for the centre - it can run above ground elsewhere.

    Getting it built would require changes to processes though. The majority of the cost is in regulation.
    Electric buses in dedicated bus lanes can deliver much of the benefits of trams.

    But "Trams are more efficient" - I hear the cry.

    If trams cost a zillion a mile, require years of planning, then sorry. You can't have lots of trams. Choices.

    Much like the explosion (ha) of battery storage for power. Why? Because *stopping* people parking some shipping containers on some land is very difficult. So it may not be the best storage system. But it's the one that will happen.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,323
    edited January 9

    Sandpit said:

    An early entry for the picture of the year competition:


    Source: https://x.com/leannespurs/status/1877233917033357412

    Ouch.

    What I noticed in one of the naughty drone shots was that the trees weren't actually burned - it was purely the ground vegetation and the housing. The tree tops still appeared to be green.

    Perhaps building mostly wooden houses close together in a fire zone isn't a good idea.

    Fingers crossed they can get it under control now the wind is dropping.
    California building code is pretty strict, because it’s an earthquake zone, but there’s still too many houses of wooden construction. The brick or concrete houses tend to be the larger ones, but they all have big gardens filled with trees so the fire is coming through anyway.

    The correct thing to do is a lot of preventative maintenance, such as clearing scrub off the floor in the forests, clearing areas for fire breaks in the forests, controlled burns before fire season, keeping street trees smaller and not overhanging property, making sure the reservoir for the fire hydrants is full etc etc.

    It doesn’t look like this has happened, to the point where insurance companies have given up on insuring fire risk in many places because they’re increasingly uncontrollable. There’s going to be quite the political fallout if it turns out a bunch of Hollywood types have had uninsured mansions burn down. It won’t be forgotten like the fires in Maui were last year.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,934
    Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    This is hilarious.

    It's the apostasy, isn't it?

    None of you would be saying this had he backed Harris and the Dems.

    Don't deny it, we won't believe you.

    Musk proved himself to be an utter berk even before he started going political, remember when he got the hump with divers rejecting his submarine for that cave rescue in Thailand?

    Even if Musk never said a single political thing he's made a ridiculous number of stupid comments and made claims he hasn't kept.
    And yet he is the greatest engineering-capitalist of the 21st century. X is just a place for him to blow off steam tbh, unfettered by our milquetoast OSA and libel laws.

    I note stocks down, bonds up, sterling down (Even against the €). Not going too well for Reeves.
    Why should he be unfettered by our libel laws? X is publishing to UK readers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,596
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    Sorry. What? People who decide to live somewhere else with lower taxes are “utterly selfish”? Perhaps they feel countries with lower taxes will also be more welcoming to free enterprise and innovation? And - more importantly - it’s their money and they can do what they like

    You often make painfully moronic remarks but this one is pretty up there
    A question and a serious one and not being bitchy: You are almost certainly the most mobile person on here. You are hardly in the UK and appear to have no ties to a local community and few family ties and one small, but probably desirable flat in London. Why are you still here?

    I have seriously considered moving to France (and nearly done it) and have/had seriously more ties than you and only haven't because of those ties and also for being much more conservative in my risk taking than you.

    Why haven't you? You wouldn't even have to give up PB.
    It's a fair question, and one I often ask!

    However you possibly under-estimate my ties. I have one older daughter who - until recently - lived near me in London. I love her to bits and like her company. However she turned 18 last year and is now at Uni in Scotland so that's one major tie gone (or at least much weaker). My other daughter is in Australia but it is still a slight tie, she is also turning 18 and when she starts traveling London will be right up there on her list

    On top of that I have quite a big extended family, mainly in Cornwall, and - maybe more importantly - a good number of friends in London, or - if they are not in London - when they go travelling they will nearly always pass through London - from LA, NYC, Europe, Bangkok etc. London is a good place to catch people on the go

    It's a combo of all these things that have kept me from making a permanent move, plus two more things. First work and in-person meetings. They do happen and they happen in London and they are valuable. Second, one other huge thing. I travel all the time for free, it's my second job. And London is a brilliant base from which to travel. Paradoxically

    However as time passes (dwindles?) I do think about slipping anchor entirely. One option on my list is to rent out my flat, or Airbnb it, and be a genuine nomad, I have friends around the world, I love moving, I can still organise travel wherever I am. I did 4 months permanent nomadism a couple of years back and loved it - I could do 3 months here, then move on, then move on again, I like the idea of being entirely untethered (others would hate it)

    So, who knows

    Speaking as somebody who travels a lot and spends over 50% of my time away from home (although I appreciate commuting to Craptown, Bumshire doesn't have the same ring as flying to Whickerville Oligarchia), you will always need a physical place as a base, even if it's just a small flat.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,127

    One of the most damaging mistakes Labour made was bad-mouthing the UK economy after the election.

    A combination of complacency at the state of the economy combined with an assumption that any damage caused be blamed on the previous government.

    They are a bunch of managers, not leaders. That is the problem in my opinion. Maybe with the exception of Wes Streeting from what I have seen.

    I don’t buy the right-wing crying about the economy though as our borrowing costs would be going through the roof regardless of who had won the election. Let’s not pretend that the Tories or Reform have any interest in actually balancing the budget.
    Balancing the budget will require major cuts in spending. Somebody is going to have to do it and Labour are in the chair for the next 4 years.
    I agree on the whole but I stand by my point that it is laughable to pretend either the Tories or Reform have any interest in doing so.

    I will go further and argue that the electorate as a whole has no interest in doing so either. It will take a talented politician to be able to take the country with them on this.
    I shall just repeat a comment I have made before -
    You won't get people to call for a smaller state until they (via taxes), and not our grandchildren (via borrowing), are paying for it.
    Taxes are too low.
    For a very long time I've believed that everybody should pay income tax - even people on benefits should know that they'd be getting £X more without paying the tax. So a zero personal allowance. But no idea how one would resolve the step-change from now to then since for the very low paid it would mean employers paying more to cover the loss due to tax.

    Good morning, everybody.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 505

    The demographics of London have changed substantially since 1990.

    They have been changing substantially for most of the last couple of hundred years. Nothing new about that.
    Something dramatically new about that.

    Up until the end of the Second World War, anybody who fell outside of the cultural norm — white, British and Christian — was a novelty and would have lived in the full knowledge that they did not represent the municipal mainstream. The experience of London before the Second World War resembled modern monocultural Tokyo far more than it resembled modern multicultural New York...

    For the first time in history, London’s permanent population is culturally, ethnically and religiously diverse, sharing little in common with the country it governs. This change was recent, rapid and remarkable. It is strange that we acknowledge it so rarely, and it would be ludicrous to assume that it has had no bearing on life in the city. Most Londoners know, regardless of whether they admit it, that crime has risen steeply. Certain areas of the city are effectively off-limits after dark...

    The sticking-plaster solution is to engineer a new founding myth through brute-force messaging: London is, always has been and always will be multicultural. Londoners have always prided themselves on their pluralism and tolerance. This was inevitable. It cannot — must not — be questioned.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,614
    TOPPING said:

    Reeves isn't going anywhere and unless you are the daughter of a duke you aren't going to enough drinks parties to meet, among all the guests, 22 couples who are about to leave the UK for tax/other reasons.

    Except I did. The facts are that these people are funnelled into networks and social groups where a large number will be attending the same parties - the fact I met most of them a number of times at different parties was omitted to keep things simple.

    I get you think you are omniscient but there is a world outside of your experience which might not match your understanding and knowledge.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,948

    The demographics of London have changed substantially since 1990.

    They have been changing substantially for most of the last couple of hundred years. Nothing new about that.
    Something dramatically new about that.

    Up until the end of the Second World War, anybody who fell outside of the cultural norm — white, British and Christian — was a novelty and would have lived in the full knowledge that they did not represent the municipal mainstream. The experience of London before the Second World War resembled modern monocultural Tokyo far more than it resembled modern multicultural New York...

    For the first time in history, London’s permanent population is culturally, ethnically and religiously diverse, sharing little in common with the country it governs. This change was recent, rapid and remarkable. It is strange that we acknowledge it so rarely, and it would be ludicrous to assume that it has had no bearing on life in the city. Most Londoners know, regardless of whether they admit it, that crime has risen steeply. Certain areas of the city are effectively off-limits after dark...

    The sticking-plaster solution is to engineer a new founding myth through brute-force messaging: London is, always has been and always will be multicultural. Londoners have always prided themselves on their pluralism and tolerance. This was inevitable. It cannot — must not — be questioned.
    London has gone from massively majority white British to actually minority white British in about 40 years, an astonishing change. Why do people lie about this? The stats are there, and they are indisputable
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,040

    a

    Easy spending cut for Labour is £9bn to Mauritius.

    But it's virtue spending as a luxury belief for them to show how wonderful they are. So I imagine it'll be sacred.

    There have been more consultations/murmurings about Leeds getting a tram system. I expect this to be cancelled. Yet again (not party political, it's happened under them all, repeatedly).

    To be fair, trams are just expensive and inflexible buses, that disrupt the city for many years while the streets are dug up to put the rails in. A metro system is the way to go, particularly for the centre - it can run above ground elsewhere.

    Getting it built would require changes to processes though. The majority of the cost is in regulation.
    Electric buses in dedicated bus lanes can deliver much of the benefits of trams.

    But "Trams are more efficient" - I hear the cry.

    If trams cost a zillion a mile, require years of planning, then sorry. You can't have lots of trams. Choices.

    Much like the explosion (ha) of battery storage for power. Why? Because *stopping* people parking some shipping containers on some land is very difficult. So it may not be the best storage system. But it's the one that will happen.
    I can tell you the least effective process:
    1) Spend money hold a consultation/review of trams being added to Leeds' transport infrastructure.
    2) Cancel the proposal.
    3) Repeat step 1 again and again.

    There's been millions spent over the years and it's just waste.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,187

    Omnium said:

    Dire economic background at the moment. Looking at the stock market we've had three retailers (Greggs, M&S, and Tesco) announce pretty reasonable updates this morning - all down (9%, 5%, 2%). These aren't normal times.

    (I don't blame Reeves for this - she's just doing her best to deliver on Labour policy. And of course their policy is hardly a mad rush left, so although wrong-headed it's only moderately so. It's much more the state the country has drifted into over many years - since 1997 really)

    The country is broke, people are broke. It’s not really a surprise. And instead of focusing on how we can turn the economy around we’re focused on lies about things that have already happened and absurdity about wanting to be dictated to by a foreigner.
    The country is not broke. The people are not broke.
    I live near Glasgow Airport and every day thousands of people are flying on foreign holidays and business trips.
    The A380 double decker jumbo flies daily to Dubai.
    The Guardian's food critic recommends £50 lunches and £100 dinners.
    The average house is worth £300K.
    This a wealthy country, but the wealth is not being shared around.
    It struck me while indulging in one of my guilty pleasures, Salvage Hunters Classic Cars, that there's a whole tranche of older people who are feeling no pain at all. They'd set up an event to flog off one of their restored classics, a Fiat or a Lancia I think, in a flashy all-white upper story car park. The car made an entrance from the lift to a bunch of drooling middle agers, none under 50, a few quite a bit older; it resembled some sort of porn event. I can't recall but presumably one of them shelled out to purchase the shiny trinket afterwards.

    There are a lot of older people with second or even third homes, foreign holidays several times a year, expensive hobbies, collections of toys with which they've rewarded themselves, oodles of time to post intemperately on the internet on why fings aint what they used to be. There are also loads of young people who work low pay jobs and can barely afford to rent a room, let alone even think about owning their own home. Something's gotta give.
    And yet, consider the average age of this board. If we're saying things are crap - and our demographic is fairly cushioned - imagine the tone on here were there some young people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,691
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    Incentive matter. 20,000 millionaires have left since COVID.

    Some people say if they want to go let them. But then who pays the taxes they pay ?

    That's the issue.

    This is not new either. You cannot blame Reeves for this although arguably she has made it worse.
    She has made it a WHOLE lot worse

    Here’s the deal on Britain and why we’re fucked. We really really rely on London to attract rich people and innovation and energy and talent. Without London we are basically screwed. I know people don’t like hearing that but it is the case

    Now London has been in decline for a while. Its peak was probably about 2010? Many things have contributed to this (yes Brexit was one of them) but sadly it is true whatever the cause. This is why property prices are stagnant or, in places, falling quite fast

    The stock market is in a bad place. Nightlife has cratered. It’s just not as appealing a city as it was. Mass migration has transformed huge swathes and not in ways that rich people find particularly pleasing

    People don’t move to london so they can live in a rainier more expensive version of Karachi or nairobi

    So the whole great machine that has been driving the British economy for decades - london - is on the blink. I can actually see this likely getting worse not better under Labour and the execrable khan which means at least another half decade of immiseration

    I wish this wasn’t true. I love my country and my home city. But I can see its problems with my own eyes. And I can compare, as I travel so much

    On the other hand I see similar problems all over the world. Paris is often shabby and dangerous - worse than London. American cities can be awful. Half the world is in turmoil, Covid has taken a weird sad toll everywhere, especially on urban life and main streets

    However the UK is uniquely dependent on london in a way that is not true of the USA vis a vis NYC or LA or Germany Berlin or even France Paris

    This leaves us in a bad spot. We desperately need a British bukele to make the uk capital safe clean optimistic and dynamic again. Or we accept london is toast and concentrate on turnip farming around Wick
    Perhaps you're too old now to appreciate London as much as you previously did ?
    Except that I really love big cities, all around the world. Tokyo and Osaka were magnificent last autumn. I really liked Busan and Seoul. Even Manila had an interesting edge

    I loved Vancouver. I enjoyed the Olympics in Paris. OK I hated Geneva but that's a village

    Right now I am in Bangkok and it's blissful, in an hour I shall go to the gym, work up a sweat, then step out into the sweet tropical air and the moist tropical stars and have a gin and tonic on soi 8 with a friend. That's my idea of heaven

    So you'd have a point about cities if I now hated all big cities, but it ain't the case

    What is true is that as I age my tolerance of the British climate November-March decreases year on year, and I've never exactly loved it
    Glad you enjoyed Busan.
    I spent only two days there, but in that time my wife made a friend (another teacher) with whom she now chats weekly, so we'll probably revisit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,948
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    Sorry. What? People who decide to live somewhere else with lower taxes are “utterly selfish”? Perhaps they feel countries with lower taxes will also be more welcoming to free enterprise and innovation? And - more importantly - it’s their money and they can do what they like

    You often make painfully moronic remarks but this one is pretty up there
    A question and a serious one and not being bitchy: You are almost certainly the most mobile person on here. You are hardly in the UK and appear to have no ties to a local community and few family ties and one small, but probably desirable flat in London. Why are you still here?

    I have seriously considered moving to France (and nearly done it) and have/had seriously more ties than you and only haven't because of those ties and also for being much more conservative in my risk taking than you.

    Why haven't you? You wouldn't even have to give up PB.
    It's a fair question, and one I often ask!

    However you possibly under-estimate my ties. I have one older daughter who - until recently - lived near me in London. I love her to bits and like her company. However she turned 18 last year and is now at Uni in Scotland so that's one major tie gone (or at least much weaker). My other daughter is in Australia but it is still a slight tie, she is also turning 18 and when she starts traveling London will be right up there on her list

    On top of that I have quite a big extended family, mainly in Cornwall, and - maybe more importantly - a good number of friends in London, or - if they are not in London - when they go travelling they will nearly always pass through London - from LA, NYC, Europe, Bangkok etc. London is a good place to catch people on the go

    It's a combo of all these things that have kept me from making a permanent move, plus two more things. First work and in-person meetings. They do happen and they happen in London and they are valuable. Second, one other huge thing. I travel all the time for free, it's my second job. And London is a brilliant base from which to travel. Paradoxically

    However as time passes (dwindles?) I do think about slipping anchor entirely. One option on my list is to rent out my flat, or Airbnb it, and be a genuine nomad, I have friends around the world, I love moving, I can still organise travel wherever I am. I did 4 months permanent nomadism a couple of years back and loved it - I could do 3 months here, then move on, then move on again, I like the idea of being entirely untethered (others would hate it)

    So, who knows

    Speaking as somebody who travels a lot and spends over 50% of my time away from home (although I appreciate commuting to Craptown, Bumshire doesn't have the same ring as flying to Whickerville Oligarchia), you will always need a physical place as a base, even if it's just a small flat.
    Yes that's maybe true - but I just don't know. I am not like normal people

    However the possibility that it is true is why I would airbnb my flat, or rent it, short term, rather than selling it
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,288

    The demographics of London have changed substantially since 1990.

    They have been changing substantially for most of the last couple of hundred years. Nothing new about that.
    Something dramatically new about that.

    Up until the end of the Second World War, anybody who fell outside of the cultural norm — white, British and Christian — was a novelty and would have lived in the full knowledge that they did not represent the municipal mainstream. The experience of London before the Second World War resembled modern monocultural Tokyo far more than it resembled modern multicultural New York...

    For the first time in history, London’s permanent population is culturally, ethnically and religiously diverse, sharing little in common with the country it governs. This change was recent, rapid and remarkable. It is strange that we acknowledge it so rarely, and it would be ludicrous to assume that it has had no bearing on life in the city. Most Londoners know, regardless of whether they admit it, that crime has risen steeply. Certain areas of the city are effectively off-limits after dark...

    The sticking-plaster solution is to engineer a new founding myth through brute-force messaging: London is, always has been and always will be multicultural. Londoners have always prided themselves on their pluralism and tolerance. This was inevitable. It cannot — must not — be questioned.
    https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/about/population-history-of-london

    "In 1851, over 38 percent were born somewhere else."
    "by 1901 the proportion of Londoners born elsewhere had declined to just 33 percent of the total"
    "The 1901 census recorded 33,000 Londoners as having been born in British colonies or dependencies."
  • The demographics of London have changed substantially since 1990.

    They have been changing substantially for most of the last couple of hundred years. Nothing new about that.
    Something dramatically new about that.

    Up until the end of the Second World War, anybody who fell outside of the cultural norm — white, British and Christian — was a novelty and would have lived in the full knowledge that they did not represent the municipal mainstream. The experience of London before the Second World War resembled modern monocultural Tokyo far more than it resembled modern multicultural New York...

    For the first time in history, London’s permanent population is culturally, ethnically and religiously diverse, sharing little in common with the country it governs. This change was recent, rapid and remarkable. It is strange that we acknowledge it so rarely, and it would be ludicrous to assume that it has had no bearing on life in the city. Most Londoners know, regardless of whether they admit it, that crime has risen steeply. Certain areas of the city are effectively off-limits after dark...

    The sticking-plaster solution is to engineer a new founding myth through brute-force messaging: London is, always has been and always will be multicultural. Londoners have always prided themselves on their pluralism and tolerance. This was inevitable. It cannot — must not — be questioned.
    This seems to be a 28-year old or early thirtysomehing Toryboy chap who writes for the Telrgraph.

    I doubt he even has any memory of
    London before about about 2005.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,691
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Lots of talk on TwiX now about the millionaires and non Doms fleeing the UK. At a time of great impoverishment the Labour government has contrived to frighten away the most important part of our tax base, and told them btw private schools will be slowly abolished via taxes

    It’s all adding up. All these allegedly small things are adding up to a looming and desperate collision with reality. Even as we allow in millions of migrants who will be a net drain on the treasury, house thousands of asylum seekers in the savoy at billions a year, and pay Tanzania forty trillion quid to take control of Cornwall

    It’s coming. A crash

    Brace

    As always 'More or Less' is your friend. When you were spouting this awhile ago More or Less debunked it. Who to believe, some nutters on twitter or people who analyse the data properly. It appears the definition of millionaire and sample selection were, how can we put it, bollocks.
    Are you seriously disputing that rich people are leaving the UK? Every metric shows they are and in number


    COUTTS LONDON PRIME PROPERTY INDEX Q3 2024: PRICES DROP AND BUYERS GET BIGGER DISCOUNTS

    Our latest research on luxury London property shows prices falling, average discounts close to 9% and almost 80% of sales coming in below asking price.
    Nope I'm not. Just pointing out that last time you did this by quoting a survey you saw somewhere it turned out to be complete bollocks. I know you think you are always right, but you seem to have a very short memory and a very poor source of your data.
    If it helps I can give you personal experience instead of surveys - over the pre Christmas drinks party rounds I met (and I noted the number for work reasons) 22 couples who have already or are in the process of moving here from the UK as an absolute direct result of Labour winning the election last year.

    All of these people, all 22 couples were people who had set up successful businesses - not inherited money. They are selling or have sold their UK properties, stopped paying staff, stopped buying luxury goods and cars in the UK. Will not be setting up new business or employing people in the UK for the foreseeable future, not paying any more taxes to the UK.

    This is one small place - just think how many are going to larger places such as Switzerland, Dubai etc.

    I’m sure there will be people who say “good riddance” but remember the new car they bought each year covered an essential salary from the VAT. The shops they shopped in need fewer staff with fewer customers. Their gardeners and housekeepers will find fewer hours to work.

    I’ve said it before - I do not rejoice in this, it’s not necessarily good for where I live but it’s worse for the UK which I love.

    So ideologically sticking it to the rich will prove to be a stupid act of self harm.

    It is a shame they're going. But I also fear there's very little we can do to help people who are so utterly selfish.
    Sorry. What? People who decide to live somewhere else with lower taxes are “utterly selfish”? Perhaps they feel countries with lower taxes will also be more welcoming to free enterprise and innovation? And - more importantly - it’s their money and they can do what they like

    You often make painfully moronic remarks but this one is pretty up there
    Well it is literally a selfish, as opposed to altruistic decision.
    The "utterly" is a bit OTT, certainly.
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