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Will Starmer go full Truss and sack the Chancellor this year? – politicalbetting.com
Will Starmer go full Truss and sack the Chancellor this year? – politicalbetting.com
Rachel Reeves tenure as Chancellor reminds me of a Yodel driver, both rarely deliver and when they do it usually is a bit of a disaster.
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Shes a disaster
Nothing could possibly go wrong.
In an interview with The Times, Sebastian Gorka, deputy assistant to the president-elect, said the UK government must honour its “commitment” to the international fight against Isis by taking back dozens of Britons in limbo in northeast Syria.
They include Shamima Begum, who left for Syria from Bethnal Green, east London, as a schoolgirl in 2015 and lost a final appeal last year against the rescinding of her British citizenship.
“Any nation which wishes to be seen as a serious ally and friend of the most powerful nation in the world should act in a fashion that reflects that serious commitment,” Gorka said in response to a question on whether Britain should be forced to accept its Isis members. “That is doubly so for the UK, which has a very special place in President Trump’s heart, and we would all wish to see the ‘special relationship’ fully re-established.”
https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/uk-should-take-back-isis-members-in-syria-says-trumps-terror-chief-qsw0vh9v6
Sopwith is a good choice.
They had both the Sopwith Bat-Boat and the Sopwith Hippo. I'll have the one with the hippo - as long as it comes with a polite version of St Augustine.
* Unlike consequences, the Snark is a real hairyplane.
Reeves is as inept at communications as Starmer, but the fundamental problem remains. The national finances have been running on empty for years. It's either tax rises or massive austerity.
It shows how useless Badenoch is that she didn't go with this as PMQs, rather than her self defeating bandwagon six questions.
The thing that is most likely to save Labour's bacon at the next GE is how useless the alternatives are. Rupert Lowe's comments in Parliament yesterday were even more disgraceful.
We have much more information now.
Good morning, everyone.
Rather tired. Overslept by an hour.
Imagine I wrote something wide awake and witty and then you felt an overwhelming desire to click one of the links below and enjoy about half an hour of someone rambling about F1 (lovely graphs in the last link):
F1: 2025 Driver Lineup Predictions podcast (Undercutters ep4) is up here:
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-driver-lineup-predictions/
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0yBF7aqAxiLHQ68No95w4Y
Amazon Music: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/6edca4d8-68f8-4782-9898-2bfab4696c39/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-driver-lineup-predictions
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-driver-lineup-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000683150041
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/01/undercutters-ep4-f1-2025-driver-lineup.html
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On-topic: it's odd how this government and, to a lesser extent, the previous one has a perfectly fine majority yet still seems to be utterly at sea.
Welcome to the script of Goldfinger, except with the villain as a child-man 1990's Wayne,'s World character.
Ministers want to fast-track the biggest overhaul of local government in more than 50 years by scrapping more than a hundred smaller councils by the end of the parliament.
County council leaders have been told to inform Angela Rayner’s department by Friday if they want to postpone elections, due on May 1, for 12 months.
Fifteen councils, covering 12.7 million people and 9.3 million registered voters, have done so. Twelve of those are run by the Conservatives.
Decisions on which elections to postpone will be taken by ministers by mid-February, but it is thought that no more than ten county councils will be selected.
The delayed elections in 2026 would be for “shadow” councillors who may not start in their roles in the new authorities until 2028.
It means that hundreds of Tory councillors elected at the peak of Boris Johnson’s premiership in 2021 could end up serving seven-year terms.
Several areas where Reform were expected to perform particularly well, including Essex, Thurrock, Norfolk, Suffolk and Devon, have asked to have their elections postponed.
East and West Sussex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Kent, Oxfordshire, Surrey, Warwickshire, Worcestershire and the Isle of Wight have also put in bids to push their elections back.
Zia Yusuf, the chairman of Reform UK, said: “The fact all the Tory-controlled councils in which Reform’s support is strongest have asked to not allow voters to boot them out speaks volumes.
“Labour and the Tories are so terrified of Reform’s rise that they are colluding to rob the British people of their democratic rights. They will eventually face the electoral reckoning they deserve.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-fury-as-nine-million-face-delay-to-local-elections-6w2xfnpqq
If the markets decide Reeves must go he’ll have to sack her
The Telegraph report Liz Truss lawyers have sent a 'cease and desist' letter to Starmer accusing her of crashing the economy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/09/truss-starmer-cease-and-desist-letter-crashed-economy-claim/
The PM held his counsel on the other until Musk started putting MPs at physical risk, and then there was a response.
I don't think that our Government will bend over in the way the Usonian legal system did when Trump started threatening court staff over all those months.
One thing I do not know is whether we have laws applicable were such threats to be made internationally. We do for defamation, if any of our abused politicians choose to chase it, due to publication in the UK.
It will be fun if he is given an official administration position by Mr Chump.
Several areas where Reform were expected to perform particularly well, including Essex, Thurrock, Norfolk, Suffolk and Devon, have asked to have their elections postponed.
What a happy coincidence.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/musk-examines-oust-starmer-uk-051418683.html#:~:text=Elon Musk has held private discussions with allies,on Thursday citing people familiar with the matter.
The Streisand Effect will come into play.
Individual areas will certainly have cuts which I think is as it should be.
She factually, demonstrably crashed the economy m’lud and here is all the proof
Case dismissed. Mrs Truss to pay economic damages.
Talking down the economy from both before and after the election, then producing a growth and job destroying budget has collided with Trump's election and the crisis in the bond market
Standing at a lectern repeatedly saying growth is very sad as the markets are not listening, nor will they until she slashes spending, curbs pay rises, and terrible for her, increases taxes again
I am beginning to conclude her time in office may be under threat, and certainly will if she cannot convince the markets
Can individuals take Court action under it? ie Could an individual take a website to Court?
Or is it purely a matter where the police would investigate and then only the CPS could take action? (I appreciate in this situation an individual could make a complaint to the police which could kick-off the process, but the individual couldn't initiate Court action).
If it's the latter, how about adding an extra question to this year's quiz, ie:
Number of prosecutions under the OSA in 2025.
Given all the comments on here in recent days it would be interesting to get everyone's predictions recorded and to then go back and see how accurate they were in a year's time.
The best interpretation I have seen of this week was that KS did not respond until he felt he had to, which seems credible given everything.
It's also interesting how EM would remove Nigel Farage from Reform UK Ltd (referenced in the FT), given that Farage owns most of it just as Musk owns twitter.
https://x.com/jo_arizona/status/1877254162737418523
It’s said that the fire department budget was cut, and that they didn’t have the resources to carry out preventive works in the areas now on fire.
The latest fires are in Hollywood Hills, an area of mostly large houses and a lot of trees. Not somewhere you’d usually build given the fire risk, but this is some of the most expensive property in the city.
Also stories of insurance companies cancelling fire cover because of the lack of action from the city to stop the fires every year. The suggestion is that they were prevented from raising prices sufficiently to cover the risk, so they stopped fire cover completely.
As regards the incoming Tory/Reform government, whoever can achieve this melding will need to be a master politician (previous applicants need not apply) . Locally each group has been tearing strips off each other so getting them to sit down together will be a problem. Getting them to agree a plan - next to impossible.
The economic fundamentals of the UK are dismal. And the chancellor exhibits no idea of having any clue what to do - no plan no nothing - no brains - except witter on about “growth” while making things WORSE
Police investigations on the other hand.
One thing I would like to clarify is that the sheer number of legally problematic posts and the incoming OSA is why the discussion about grooming has been banned.
Even if the OSA wasn't coming into force I would have still put the ban in place, but making legally problematic posts is not only expensive but potentially to a criminal level with the OSA.
Real leadership in government now would be about (a) convincing the electorate, especially older voters, that we need to cut back on our special perks, and (b) we need to invest more in future, e.g. defence and education.
It's the apostasy, isn't it?
None of you would be saying this had he backed Harris and the Dems.
Don't deny it, we won't believe you.
She seemed to think "growth" would magically happen as soon as Labour took office.
Sunak and Hunt were doing far better on that front. Until she killed it.
A double possessive ?
Even the most die-hard Reform-Tory anti Labourite skinhead Thatcherite?
It’s quite astonishing how astonishingly shit they have been at absolutely everything, from day 1, and without any let-up, and it gets even worse from week to week
TSE is right that the Ladbrokes 1/5 (which you can boost) is a great bet. The fact that Reeves is the first ever female chancellor gives her that extra bit of protection.
Anyhow, their biggest mistake is his, not hers, by boxing themselves in by denying themselves all the more obvious, honest and transparent ways of raising the money needed to get the country out of the Tories’ mess.
That he's in Trump's administration is an illustration of just how out of control things might get over the next couple of years.
They definitely don’t want the test cases to be against companies with unlimited legal budgets, and risk seeing a much narrower interpretation of the law being ruled upon.
Repost:
Good morning, everyone.
This is unlikely, but in case the Online Sod Off You Can't Say That Act leads to woe for PB, I have a plan. And, unlike the Cylons, it makes some degree of sense.
Let me know your Twitter username (mine's MorrisF1) and I'll put together a list of PB users. That way, if the site needs to be reconstituted in some way there'll be a list of many of regulars to help get it going immediately. Probably easiest if you just send me a message.
Hopefully this will be completely unnecessary but I think it's worth doing as both a safety net and to have a decent resource for kickstarting something new if that turns out to be required.
I fully accept you were wise to warn me they’d be shit. But I doubt you thought they’d be THIS shit
If it makes us feel better, France's government bond market is in a worse position than ours.
It would help if rich Libertarian landlords actually paid their property taxes to fund the fire department of course. There's always a tweet:
https://bsky.app/profile/kaylan.bsky.social/post/3lfa4j2nfjs2p
I expected it on both the domestic and foreign front, and that's what we've got.
I even mocked those who said they HAD A PLAN.
GDP per capita is PB's metric of choice, and growth there collapsed in 2023 and the first two quarters of 2024. If immigration does slow, as expected, you might that finally starts to pick up a bit under Labour.
Seriously, Casino, get a grip.
Starmer hoisted with his own second referendum petard.
So, enjoy a taste of your own medicine.
As for the examples cited, they need some rethinking and fact-checking. Liz Truss was on her last legs anyway when she fired Kwasi, Margaret survived Lawson resigning for more than a year (NOT months as the header states) and it was Geoffrey that did for her, not him, and Boris firing Javid did him no harm at all. His eventual loss of office had nothing to do with that event. Only maybe Sunak going is arguable, but even that was more a symptom of a collapsing Premiership than a cause.
Starmer has an overwhelmingly majority and has pretty much cowed his party. The country has turned against him, but I doubt getting rid of Reeves would make any of the few who stick with Labour change their minds. And he is someone who has the technocratic belief that changing people and messing around with government institutions can solve problems, rather than changing his whole disastrous approach. So I can see him replacing her.
But what will probably stop him is the total lack of a credible alternative given the complete lack of understanding of business or the economy in the PLP. If even a dud like Reeves, obviously clueless and out of her depth in a small puddle, was the best they've got, they're obviously completely out of talent and ideas.
Nobody in Germany wants to deal with the heirs to Hitler but everyone is good on deals with the heirs to Stalin
Who murdered more people
We can't let British democracy turn into a plaything for overseas billionaires with short attention spans.
At PMQs, I urged the Prime Minister to work with us to make sure power always sits with the voters, not wealthy foreign oligarchs.
https://bsky.app/profile/eddavey.libdems.org.uk/post/3lfai7xw3ud2e
Even the most die-hard Reform-Tory anti Labourite skinhead Thatcherite?
It’s quite astonishing how astonishingly shit they have been at absolutely everything, from day 1, and without any let-up, and it gets even worse from week to week
The anti-corruption minister being questioned on corruption has to be one of their better ones.
If Starmer's Labour had had a single bright idea on how to do running the economy better, we might have just heard mention in the previous 2 or 3 years. Instead, we have a bunch of no marks thinking "well, how difficult can it be to be better than the Tories?"
And Starmer's not hoist with anything, other than his own substandard performance in government. It doesn't change the fact that he's got years in post.
He could still be PM if he left the GE until the last opportunity.
I can't see a plausible path for democracy to survive against the autocrats.
The least you’d expect is a municipality and fire service that can manage the forest, given that there’s going to be fires there every year. The suggestion is that they’ve not been clearing the scrub from the forest floor, not maintaining fire breaks (although they may be of limited use in the high winds) and not maintaining water reservoirs for fire hydrants.
I suspect that there will be quite the political fallout once the immediate emergency has been dealt with, with various elected officials trying to deflect the blame onto each other. I suspect that a lot of those living in Hollywood Hills especially, are people with a public profile who can make a lot of noise. It’s a popular area with entertainment types as one might expect.
The fire chief wrote a public memo to the mayor only last month.
https://x.com/darrellcbassist/status/1877249863160627339
Now they know.
If Musk hadn't backed Trump, and stuck with the Democrats, we'd be hearing far less of these arguments.
The increase in borrowing costs is being largely driven by international factors. There is the serious and increasing risk of a financial collapse in Russia. China remains mired in a sea of property related debts reducing demand. The US has chosen to elect a nutter who seems serious about implementing dangerous policies as the Fed commented yesterday. None of this is Reeves' fault.
What is her fault is the failure to control government spending in the budget with her tax increases being insufficient to cover these, making a bad deficit worse. Her hopium that this was somehow, magically, going to lead to growth has so far fallen flat which makes repairing the damage done even more difficult. The Spring budget was supposed to be a non event on the basis that stability required only 1 major budget event a year rather than the 2 we had slipped into. I don't think it will be like that. I think she will be pressed into a wide range of cuts to keep her financial targets given that the £10bn leeway she had has already been wiped out by the increase in borrowing costs. If she seems unpopular now, imagine how she will be looked at after that. The risk to Reeves is not now but in the summer.
We need a leader from somewhere in the West with James Bond intellectual and bravery calibre.
(I don't blame Reeves for this - she's just doing her best to deliver on Labour policy. And of course their policy is hardly a mad rush left, so although wrong-headed it's only moderately so. It's much more the state the country has drifted into over many years - since 1997 really)
An empty point.
That should worry Starner. He may appear impregnable despite personal unpopularity. A politician is never impregnable .
The centre-left is a moral evil, which must be expunged. It is also intrinsically lazy, inefficient and slothful, as it threatens a whole range of ways in which the same oligarch
class have learnt to store their capital away from productive function.
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