Gregg Wallace’s comments about middle class women of a certain age was just on the BBC news bulletin, and I heard an enraged cry of ‘you cheeky bastard!’ from my partner (a big Masterchef fan) in the bathroom. Game over Gregg, game over.
Ugh more bigotry towards the middle classes, if I am parsing his words correctly, it would have been bad had he have treated working class women like this?
Presumably this unfortunate intervention was not based on advice from his PR team.
You’d expect he would be getting advice on how to handle this.
I have known clients who are in situations like this and what happens is their liquid money dries up completely and very quickly and they get scared and lash out as they cannot afford to hire PR.
I must be the only person who has no idea who Mr Wallace is, never mind what he has done or is supposed to have done.
He is a greengrocer. You are probably now more confused.
He's there as the unsophisticated everyman who likes his puds. He is the programme's counter to the top chefs making "posh nosh".
He is a real tit but he takes away the seriousness with his guff. Pilloried for being common now, the luvvies do not like working class oiks alongside them.
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
We use Amazon almost daily due to sheer convenience, competitive pricing, next day delivery, and an excellent return process
Maybe due to our ages we just want to go into town less, especially when you can get all the benefits from Amazon without the hassle of parking and crowds
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
Another issue that needs to be addressed. The idea of a small number of high end systems, and a small number of low end systems.
Is repeatedly an utter failure in terms of cost. It would have been cheaper to build more Type 45 than to try and save money with “less capable” ships.
The other issue is long lead time items. For artillery production, its shell bodies (the large lump of steel) that takes specialist equipment and has a long lead time. Pouring an explosive fill and making a fuse are much quicker. Plus a 155mm shell body can last forever, unfilled. It’s a shiny, single piece of high quality steel. Put it on a shelf and it’s good for hundreds of years.
So we could have a factory that makes shell bodies, just store them. A reserve of 10 million shell bodies would be seriously valuable. Probably cost a billion or 2 of the actual shell bodies once you get into that scale of manufacturing.
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
Stodgey.
Do you share my impression that normal people (i.e., not the likes of me and thee) are pretty switched off from politics right now and likely to remain so for a while?
If so, I think we can disregard polls for a bit, and the whining of the usual suspects, while the government gets quietly on with the job of trying to govern. The general public will largely ignore this and concentrate on the important things in life, like who will win the King George this year, where is the nearest car boot sale this weekend, and what do you think that nice Mr Wallace really said?
Normal people are a bit politicked out, I think.
I doubt you could be further from the truth and are being a bit patronising and using wishful thinking. People are always engaged in politics when it impinges on them.
WFA removal, private school tax, farm tax, energy price increases, NI increases - all of these hit a huge number of people and businesses (who will be telling their staff why their wage rises will be lower, getting laid-off, no more staff etc).
Flirting with a self inflicted recession, increasing unemployment and inflation. People don't ignore these things.
You can't disregard the polls when they are showing the rising feeling in the country. Labour no longer first in Wales today, only four % off fourth. Already lost their lead in some national polls. Reform already having 100K+ members and rising in the polls and impacting local election results.
I'd say people are way more politically engaged than they would normally be six months after a GE.
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
Admittedly there was heavy rain overnight and this morning's Santa Dash in Sale Water Park was more of a Santa splash. But it feels like we have been remarkably lucky witg tge weather these last two weeks. Everyone has been compaining about endless cloud and rain, but here it has been largely pleasant.
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
I'm very inclined to agree there, that yes we do need to rearm in significant measure.
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been recently - whilst also being in relative decline.
I do think we need to be "correctly armed". Which, AFAICT means determining what we can possibly do independently (i.e. what we actually need to defend our own population; mainly anti-drone and missile tech), what we want to stockpile to support others on actual frontlines (artillery, air defence, medium range missile systems) and what forces we will need to act in concert with various permutations of allies to be able to put a coherent army into the field that is a serious deterrent to conventional attack of those allies.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
The new government is gearing up for a new Strategic Defence Review process, which should give us a better basis for discussion.
The last one, published in March 2021 (after having been delayed for over a year by Brexit and the pandemic) was outdated almost from the start, and has been revised piecemeal since then to account for the changed threat environment with Russia and Iran coming to the fore and our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I do think we need to be very sceptical about some of our current spending - are our aircraft carriers really worth it if we're worried primarily about Russia and their proxies? Would the £1bn or so that we pay each year just to keep them floating not be better spent on the likes of NCSA, or on turning the NPSA into a real agency rather than a slightly-pathetic front for the Security Service?
The aircraft carriers provide sea control. And mobile air support. Which is why they show up for the exercises defending Northern NATO countries.
F35 would hammer Russian fighters out of the air. The ground attack aircraft and helicopters would then be easy pickings. They can also “loft” long range anti-radar missiles to take out the Russian SAM systems.
What Ukraine has demonstrated, for the nth time, that while you can survive with air superiority, you can’t win without it. The Russians have never gained air superiority, though they’ve come close in some areas.
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
One problem with Amazon is they lump together different suppliers of dropshipped Chinese tat so you cannot be sure what you are ordering.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
Stodgey.
Do you share my impression that normal people (i.e., not the likes of me and thee) are pretty switched off from politics right now and likely to remain so for a while?
If so, I think we can disregard polls for a bit, and the whining of the usual suspects, while the government gets quietly on with the job of trying to govern. The general public will largely ignore this and concentrate on the important things in life, like who will win the King George this year, where is the nearest car boot sale this weekend, and what do you think that nice Mr Wallace really said?
Normal people are a bit politicked out, I think.
I doubt you could be further from the truth and are being a bit patronising and using wishful thinking. People are always engaged in politics when it impinges on them.
WFA removal, private school tax, farm tax, energy price increases, NI increases - all of these hit a huge number of people and businesses (who will be telling their staff why their wage rises will be lower, getting laid-off, no more staff etc).
Flirting with a self inflicted recession, increasing unemployment and inflation. People don't ignore these things.
You can't disregard the polls when they are showing the rising feeling in the country. Labour no longer first in Wales today, only four % off fourth. Already lost their lead in some national polls. Reform already having 100K+ members and rising in the polls and impacting local election results.
I'd say people are way more politically engaged than they would normally be six months after a GE.
You missed the bit out about squandering the bequeathed Tory golden legacy. Other than that, very good.
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
One problem with Amazon is they lump together different suppliers of dropshipped Chinese tat so you cannot be sure what you are ordering.
If the product is unacceptable then I just return it and receive a full refund but in practice this is quite rare
My constituency, Cork South-West, completed its count at 04:39 overnight, presumably on the basis that re-elected TD Holly Cairns would be up at all hours with her newborn baby, so, sure, they may as well count the ballots while they were up. They have re-elected all three incumbent TDs - Michael Collins (Independent Ireland), Holly Cairns (Social Democrats) and Christopher O'Sullivan (Fianna Fail) - the first time the 3-seat constituency has re-elected all three incumbents in 27 years.
If you wanted to distil the election into one constituency then perhaps you have it right here. Greens and SF nowhere to be seen. Independent Ireland and Social Democrats doing well. Fine Gael bungled it again. No change overall.
Completed the count in under a week - impressive!
Our American friends are still counting, almost a month later.
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
you can buy absolutely anything on Amazon , get some soap powder or toilet rolls.
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
I simply do not understand why any post is flagged unless it is a clear threat to the legal obligation of the site owners
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
He always struck me as rather oily. He seemed to show an unduly unnecessary interest in the younger female Master Chef contestants.
Tell me what did you see in the Millionaire Gr....?
As this purports to be a politics focused blog, are we predicting a by-election?
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
One problem with Amazon is they lump together different suppliers of dropshipped Chinese tat so you cannot be sure what you are ordering.
if you don't know what you bought you should not be allowed a bank account.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
Another issue that needs to be addressed. The idea of a small number of high end systems, and a small number of low end systems.
Is repeatedly an utter failure in terms of cost. It would have been cheaper to build more Type 45 than to try and save money with “less capable” ships.
The other issue is long lead time items. For artillery production, its shell bodies (the large lump of steel) that takes specialist equipment and has a long lead time. Pouring an explosive fill and making a fuse are much quicker. Plus a 155mm shell body can last forever, unfilled. It’s a shiny, single piece of high quality steel. Put it on a shelf and it’s good for hundreds of years.
So we could have a factory that makes shell bodies, just store them. A reserve of 10 million shell bodies would be seriously valuable. Probably cost a billion or 2 of the actual shell bodies once you get into that scale of manufacturing.
We also need to ensure we don’t continue to gold plate defence manufacturing, which would then hopefully carry through to other manufacturing. Fortunately, consultants won’t be a reserved occupation.
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
You are a star OKC, and definitely not Donald J. Trump!
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
I simply do not understand why any post is flagged unless it is a clear threat to the legal obligation of the site owners
But you are not the thin skinned Donald Trump masquerading as a PB poster. Oops, there goes another flag...
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
I simply do not understand why any post is flagged unless it is a clear threat to the legal obligation of the site owners
But you are not the thin skinned Donald Trump masquerading as a PB poster. Oops, there goes another flag...
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
He is an utter embarrassment
you twisting your pearls there and getting your petticoats in a twist G. surprisingly it is only 2nd rate luvvies who are doing the whinging. Every one a celebrity my large Kilmarnock bunnet. Desperados looking to get on Im A Celebrity more like. Imagine they had to suffer a greengrocer judging them.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
So basically we need an 01/06/21 style coup to ensure a Farage Prime Ministership. Over to you Elon.
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
I think Musk has reached the "Self-actualisation" stage of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, having achieved or bypassed Belonging and Love, Esteem, Cognitive and Aesthetic.
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
He always struck me as rather oily. He seemed to show an unduly unnecessary interest in the younger female Master Chef contestants.
Tell me what did you see in the Millionaire Gr....?
As this purports to be a politics focused blog, are we predicting a by-election?
He's a semi-reconstructed 80's greengrocer, from, apparently, a 'place' where somewhat sexualised banter wasn't particularly inappropriate.
And he's never, really learned, the way some of us have (had to). I certainly wonder about one or two of the lines I used to use 'back then'!
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
I simply do not understand why any post is flagged unless it is a clear threat to the legal obligation of the site owners
But you are not the thin skinned Donald Trump masquerading as a PB poster. Oops, there goes another flag...
Seriously are you receiving flagged posts ?
Yes but I am sure it's all just a bit of fun, or as I alluded to yesterday a backlash from the Donald for my anti-Trump narrative.
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
I simply do not understand why any post is flagged unless it is a clear threat to the legal obligation of the site owners
But you are not the thin skinned Donald Trump masquerading as a PB poster. Oops, there goes another flag...
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
He is an utter embarrassment
you twisting your pearls there and getting your petticoats in a twist G. surprisingly it is only 2nd rate luvvies who are doing the whinging. Every one a celebrity my large Kilmarnock bunnet. Desperados looking to get on Im A Celebrity more like. Imagine they had to suffer a greengrocer judging them.
Sorry Malc, but his comments this morning were utterly wrong
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
I simply do not understand why any post is flagged unless it is a clear threat to the legal obligation of the site owners
But you are not the thin skinned Donald Trump masquerading as a PB poster. Oops, there goes another flag...
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
He is an utter embarrassment
you twisting your pearls there and getting your petticoats in a twist G. surprisingly it is only 2nd rate luvvies who are doing the whinging. Every one a celebrity my large Kilmarnock bunnet. Desperados looking to get on Im A Celebrity more like. Imagine they had to suffer a greengrocer judging them.
I saw that Gregg (Wallace) in Gardeners* the Bakers once, or was it a gardener in Greggs the Bakers?
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
Amazon have managed to make themselves seem so incredibly low-rent and seedy, that I almost wonder if they're aping Ryanair's tactic from a couple of decades ago of making themselves seem cheap and nasty in the hope that the "cheap" bit would be what would lodge in peoples' minds (to be fair, it seems that it worked for them).
As already mentioned, the search engine is dreadful - stuffed full of sponsored options that don't actually match the filters you've set. And when you manage to find an item you're interested in, the product page is often messed up, conflating different options from different vendors, amongst many other problems.
I bought a new pair of hiking boots on Friday, and they've just delivered a pair in US size 8, which is too small. Normally I'm wise to that, and go by the EU size if possible but in this case it seems the wrong info was listed in their database. This wasn't a 'fullfilled by Amazon' third party vendor either, it was from Amazon themselves.
I could have got the same pair direct from the manufacturer for £20 more, or from a local outdoors shop for £25 more - either would have been worth it, given the hassle of returning to Amazon that I now face.
WTF has any of this got to do with Musk. He's a dual national South African- American who arrived on a dodgy visa. Why doesn't he just fuck off?
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
For the record I have "liked" this post and NOT flagged it.
I simply do not understand why any post is flagged unless it is a clear threat to the legal obligation of the site owners
But you are not the thin skinned Donald Trump masquerading as a PB poster. Oops, there goes another flag...
Seriously are you receiving flagged posts ?
Yes but I am sure it's all just a bit of fun, or as I alluded to yesterday a backlash from the Donald for my anti-Trump narrative.
If it alerts the site owners unnecessarily then it is not a bit of fun
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
As I and others have pointed out to the doubters, Reform are organised, well funded and very serious about replacing the Tories as the party of the right.
I know what Reform stand for. I don’t know what the Tories stand for. We can all see the enthusiastic surge of interest in Reform. Where is the enthusiastic surge of true blue Tories coming back with your amazing new leader and dynamic vision for the future?
You may know what Reform "stand for" but I haven't a clue.
The leadership (Farage, Tice) are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want big tax and spending cuts. However, many of those who joined Reform and vote for Reform want something else - some, a lot I'd imagine, were big fans of Boris Johnson and the "levelling up" agenda which meant lots more public funding for the north and especially the WWC north. They also want more resources on law and order, local services and the NHS to remove the perceived or actual stigma of feeling "left behind" against the south.
In time, this will cause problems but the glue which holds them all together is immigration but even that is nuanced. I suspect there are plenty of Reform voters whose view on immigration is nearer that of Britain First, others will simply want net zero migration and others to see the net migration number sharply lower (and there's obviously racial and cultural overtones to all of that as well).
Like every other party, Reform is a messy coalition of often very different interest groups and factions whose broad level of concensus is quite limited and whose policy differences below the surface are substantial.
I don't really think "unreconstructed Thatcherites" quite fits Reform, any more than it does Liz Truss or Bobby Jenrick.
Thatcher had hinterland, even if you disagreed very strongly. I prefer "neo-Thatcherite" - as I see the current Reform, Truss etc are more like a card board cut out of Thatcher they have drawn with poster paints.
The Reform manifesto was marketing and dog whistles, with no financial reality attached - actually quite like Trump in some ways.
Thatcher had strong(ish) opposition within her own party. One remade in her image has no such restaurants. And, as frequently noted, many of our most persistent problems find their roots in her term in government.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
Amazon have managed to make themselves seem so incredibly low-rent and seedy, that I almost wonder if they're aping Ryanair's tactic from a couple of decades ago of making themselves seem cheap and nasty in the hope that the "cheap" bit would be what would lodge in peoples' minds (to be fair, it seems that it worked for them).
As already mentioned, the search engine is dreadful - stuffed full of sponsored options that don't actually match the filters you've set. And when you manage to find an item you're interested in, the product page is often messed up, conflating different options from different vendors, amongst many other problems.
I bought a new pair of hiking boots on Friday, and they've just delivered a pair in US size 8, which is too small. Normally I'm wise to that, and go by the EU size if possible but in this case it seems the wrong info was listed in their database. This wasn't a 'fullfilled by Amazon' third party vendor either, it was from Amazon themselves.
I could have got the same pair direct from the manufacturer for £20 more, or from a local outdoors shop for £25 more - either would have been worth it, given the hassle of returning to Amazon that I now face.
Ah well, I've learned my lesson now...
One of the issues Mrs C and I faced with Amazon, when we used it, was a relentless campaign to 'join' Amazon Prime., coupled with adverts for stuff we didn't want.So we've stopped using them at all. If we actually want something from them (rare) our granddaughter, who seems happy coping with all the rubbish, does the business and I transfer her the money.
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
I'm very inclined to agree there, that yes we do need to rearm in significant measure.
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been recently - whilst also being in relative decline.
I do think we need to be "correctly armed". Which, AFAICT means determining what we can possibly do independently (i.e. what we actually need to defend our own population; mainly anti-drone and missile tech), what we want to stockpile to support others on actual frontlines (artillery, air defence, medium range missile systems) and what forces we will need to act in concert with various permutations of allies to be able to put a coherent army into the field that is a serious deterrent to conventional attack of those allies.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
I'd be in favour of a European defensive alliance with UK-France-Poland-Scandi/Baltics as the serious countries, although we really need Germany to grow a pair and buy-in there too.
The objective should be to deploy high-tech, high-trained, high-kinetic forces of 250,000 men with all logistical and aerial capability the Americans currently supply for us. Our share of that would be 40-50k, about a corps.
With that sort of force on the central European plain the Russians could never touch us, and nor could anyone else.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
Put figures of Reform 29%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating) and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
Put figures of Reform 29%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating) and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I don't understand how anyone can seriously propose reviewing 'front-line' NHS staff of their income tax liability. For a start, what are 'front-line' staff? Nurses, doctors..... OK. Pharmacists, Radiographers.... possibly. Receptionists?
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
Another issue that needs to be addressed. The idea of a small number of high end systems, and a small number of low end systems.
Is repeatedly an utter failure in terms of cost. It would have been cheaper to build more Type 45 than to try and save money with “less capable” ships.
The other issue is long lead time items. For artillery production, its shell bodies (the large lump of steel) that takes specialist equipment and has a long lead time. Pouring an explosive fill and making a fuse are much quicker. Plus a 155mm shell body can last forever, unfilled. It’s a shiny, single piece of high quality steel. Put it on a shelf and it’s good for hundreds of years.
So we could have a factory that makes shell bodies, just store them. A reserve of 10 million shell bodies would be seriously valuable. Probably cost a billion or 2 of the actual shell bodies once you get into that scale of manufacturing.
We also need to ensure we don’t continue to gold plate defence manufacturing, which would then hopefully carry through to other manufacturing. Fortunately, consultants won’t be a reserved occupation.
Under my UnDictatorship, management consultants will be a reserved military occupation.
Reserved for marching, arms locked, in formation, into minefields. At gun point.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I suspect Farage would then try and squeeze the Tory vote more and have a significant chance of an outright Reform majority at any subsequent GE.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
He is an utter embarrassment
you twisting your pearls there and getting your petticoats in a twist G. surprisingly it is only 2nd rate luvvies who are doing the whinging. Every one a celebrity my large Kilmarnock bunnet. Desperados looking to get on Im A Celebrity more like. Imagine they had to suffer a greengrocer judging them.
Sorry Malc, but his comments this morning were utterly wrong
Government have announced over 60 reviews, consultations and task forces since entering Government, 2 every 2.5 days
Trevor Phillips of Sky says ways of putting off decisions - 'Government by review ' ?
It really isn't - the point of reviews or consultations is not to create the policy but to examine the impacts of the policy in detail. In opposition, the capacity for a party to do that detailed analysis work is limited - in Government, with the resources of the civil service, there's much more scope to look at the policy framework and spot the problems before they arise (theoretically).
What you don't do is just announce a policy and hope magically it all comes together like trying to do a 1000 piece jigsaw when hungover.
If that's how people think Government does or should work we really need to get some proper education on Government and public policy making into our schools.
In any case, policy needs to evolve as circumstances change - yes, you can have the principles of policy but the detail has to be flexible.
The problem here is that it sounds like Labour are thinking about doing things and talking about doing things rather than actually doing things.
4 and a half years isn't actually that long. If Labour want to get re-elected then they will need for the following to happen:
1) A growing economy and an easing of the cost of living crisis 2) Noticeably better public services 3) Sharply reduced immigration
I don't like the way that Government implements change. It seems to be slow and laborious and involve endless consultations and rounds of review. And then when it does get implemented it never gets revisited again.
I would prefer more of a management by doing approach where you put something in place even if you know it's only likely to be 80% right and then you regularly review and tweak
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
Put figures of Reform 29%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating) and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
It's utter nonsense on a whole number of dynamics, logic and reason.
The biggest iceberg on the horizon though is still to arrive.
Far from enhancing Farage, the complete and utter shit show that will engulf Washington in January 2025 and create civil war in the USA, will be viewed in full in the UK.
Watch Reform populism crash and burn more quickly than Sinclairs C5 or Betamax
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
Amazon have managed to make themselves seem so incredibly low-rent and seedy, that I almost wonder if they're aping Ryanair's tactic from a couple of decades ago of making themselves seem cheap and nasty in the hope that the "cheap" bit would be what would lodge in peoples' minds (to be fair, it seems that it worked for them).
As already mentioned, the search engine is dreadful - stuffed full of sponsored options that don't actually match the filters you've set. And when you manage to find an item you're interested in, the product page is often messed up, conflating different options from different vendors, amongst many other problems.
I bought a new pair of hiking boots on Friday, and they've just delivered a pair in US size 8, which is too small. Normally I'm wise to that, and go by the EU size if possible but in this case it seems the wrong info was listed in their database. This wasn't a 'fullfilled by Amazon' third party vendor either, it was from Amazon themselves.
I could have got the same pair direct from the manufacturer for £20 more, or from a local outdoors shop for £25 more - either would have been worth it, given the hassle of returning to Amazon that I now face.
Ah well, I've learned my lesson now...
what hassle you do a 1 minute return and they pick them up from your house or tell you to keep the item.
I’d be very naive to downplay the odds of Farage becoming PM.
But the idea that Elon Musk can just give him millions from abroad seems completely unacceptable. How can anyone justify that?
I do think this week we finally saw the new Number 10 team finally getting to grips with things. They sorted out Haigh very quickly and went hard on immigration.
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
I'm very inclined to agree there, that yes we do need to rearm in significant measure.
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been recently - whilst also being in relative decline.
I do think we need to be "correctly armed". Which, AFAICT means determining what we can possibly do independently (i.e. what we actually need to defend our own population; mainly anti-drone and missile tech), what we want to stockpile to support others on actual frontlines (artillery, air defence, medium range missile systems) and what forces we will need to act in concert with various permutations of allies to be able to put a coherent army into the field that is a serious deterrent to conventional attack of those allies.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
The new government is gearing up for a new Strategic Defence Review process, which should give us a better basis for discussion.
The last one, published in March 2021 (after having been delayed for over a year by Brexit and the pandemic) was outdated almost from the start, and has been revised piecemeal since then to account for the changed threat environment with Russia and Iran coming to the fore and our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I do think we need to be very sceptical about some of our current spending - are our aircraft carriers really worth it if we're worried primarily about Russia and their proxies? Would the £1bn or so that we pay each year just to keep them floating not be better spent on the likes of NCSA, or on turning the NPSA into a real agency rather than a slightly-pathetic front for the Security Service?
You surrender the carriers you end, in one fell swoop, any ability of ours to launch an expeditionary operation worldwide.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
Put figures of Reform 29%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating) and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
It's utter nonsense on a whole number of dynamics, logic and reason.
The biggest iceberg on the horizon though is still to arrive.
Far from enhancing Farage, the complete and utter shit show that will engulf Washington in January 2025 and create civil war in the USA, will be viewed in full in the UK.
Watch Reform populism crash and burn more quickly than Sinclairs C5 or Betamax
You hope so.
But the current liberal consensus that “nothing can be done” is toxic. And provides a perfect opening for “We will build the trains on time.”
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I suspect Farage would then try and squeeze the Tory vote more and have a significant chance of an outright Reform majority at any subsequent GE.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
He certainly has captured you and you would be far more comfortable in Reform
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
One problem with Amazon is they lump together different suppliers of dropshipped Chinese tat so you cannot be sure what you are ordering.
if you don't know what you bought you should not be allowed a bank account.
The point is you cannot tell if you have bought the version from the supplier you trust or not, because Amazon have lumped them together.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I suspect Farage would then try and squeeze the Tory vote more and have a significant chance of an outright Reform majority at any subsequent GE.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
You're similar to Leon in viewing a general election as the end result rather than the actual beginning of government.
A failed government becomes very unpopular very quickly.
There would be little likelihood of a Farage government 'squeezing' the support of other parties.
I’d be very naive to downplay the odds of Farage becoming PM.
But the idea that Elon Musk can just give him millions from abroad seems completely unacceptable. How can anyone justify that?
I do think this week we finally saw the new Number 10 team finally getting to grips with things. They sorted out Haigh very quickly and went hard on immigration.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I suspect Farage would then try and squeeze the Tory vote more and have a significant chance of an outright Reform majority at any subsequent GE.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
You're similar to Leon in viewing a general election as the end result rather than the actual beginning of government.
A failed government becomes very unpopular very quickly.
There would be little likelihood of a Farage government 'squeezing' the support of other parties.
If Reform overtook the Tories on votes and seats at a GE from that point they would be the main rightwing alternative to Labour.
At which point only Tory ideologues like me would keep voting Tory, plenty of even 2024 Tories would switch to Reform to keep Labour out.
Only PR would then likely keep an independent Tory Party viable, otherwise we would have a similar result to Canada where once their Reform overtook their Tories on votes and seats in 1993 in a decade the Canadian Reform and Tory parties merged to form today's Conservative Party of Canada. A party which leans more to its Reform wing than its smaller Tory wing (a few Canadian Tories having gone Liberal at the merger as some would here too)
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
Do any of his crimes amount to more than just not being very nice? If we cancel every celebrity who is less cuddly than their TV persona, television will look like the Marie Celeste.
I’d be very naive to downplay the odds of Farage becoming PM.
But the idea that Elon Musk can just give him millions from abroad seems completely unacceptable. How can anyone justify that?
I do think this week we finally saw the new Number 10 team finally getting to grips with things. They sorted out Haigh very quickly and went hard on immigration.
It would be illegal for Musk to donate to Farage
Unless he pulled some kind of stunt using the exceptions that SF got in Northern Ireland for foreign funding of parties.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 28%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 23% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 21% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 242 seats, Labour 181 and Tories 90 and LDs 75.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
Put figures of Reform 29%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating) and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
It's utter nonsense on a whole number of dynamics, logic and reason.
The biggest iceberg on the horizon though is still to arrive.
Far from enhancing Farage, the complete and utter shit show that will engulf Washington in January 2025 and create civil war in the USA, will be viewed in full in the UK.
Watch Reform populism crash and burn more quickly than Sinclairs C5 or Betamax
I think your last sentence is hope over expectation
Reform are not going away and are clearly a threat to both labour and conservatives that needs addressing, but I do not see Farage as PM
I’d be very naive to downplay the odds of Farage becoming PM.
But the idea that Elon Musk can just give him millions from abroad seems completely unacceptable. How can anyone justify that?
I do think this week we finally saw the new Number 10 team finally getting to grips with things. They sorted out Haigh very quickly and went hard on immigration.
It would be illegal for Musk to donate to Farage
But if Musk employs Farage as an "advisor" on £20m a year, on the private understanding he funds Reform with £19m of that?
Aren't foreign donations that benefit GB political parties banned under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act?
There are loopholes. During indyref a serious problem was the amount of unionist money which nobody had to account for or to give provenances. It was channelled through NI where anonymity is the rule.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I don't understand how anyone can seriously propose reviewing 'front-line' NHS staff of their income tax liability. For a start, what are 'front-line' staff? Nurses, doctors..... OK. Pharmacists, Radiographers.... possibly. Receptionists?
Aside from being unaffordable, incoherent gibberish it would also mean a big tax cut for many of the immigrants Reform voters tend to regard as objectionable.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I suspect Farage would then try and squeeze the Tory vote more and have a significant chance of an outright Reform majority at any subsequent GE.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
He certainly has captured you and you would be far more comfortable in Reform
I voted Tory even in the 2019 EU Parliament elections where Farage's party won with 30% and the Tories under May got just 9%
I’d be very naive to downplay the odds of Farage becoming PM.
But the idea that Elon Musk can just give him millions from abroad seems completely unacceptable. How can anyone justify that?
I do think this week we finally saw the new Number 10 team finally getting to grips with things. They sorted out Haigh very quickly and went hard on immigration.
If single-issue posters on the tube about assisted suicide are acceptable, how about some hard hitting ones about the cost of the asylum system or migrant crime? Musk wouldn’t have to fund any party to do it.
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
I'm very inclined to agree there, that yes we do need to rearm in significant measure.
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been recently - whilst also being in relative decline.
I do think we need to be "correctly armed". Which, AFAICT means determining what we can possibly do independently (i.e. what we actually need to defend our own population; mainly anti-drone and missile tech), what we want to stockpile to support others on actual frontlines (artillery, air defence, medium range missile systems) and what forces we will need to act in concert with various permutations of allies to be able to put a coherent army into the field that is a serious deterrent to conventional attack of those allies.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
The new government is gearing up for a new Strategic Defence Review process, which should give us a better basis for discussion.
The last one, published in March 2021 (after having been delayed for over a year by Brexit and the pandemic) was outdated almost from the start, and has been revised piecemeal since then to account for the changed threat environment with Russia and Iran coming to the fore and our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I do think we need to be very sceptical about some of our current spending - are our aircraft carriers really worth it if we're worried primarily about Russia and their proxies? Would the £1bn or so that we pay each year just to keep them floating not be better spent on the likes of NCSA, or on turning the NPSA into a real agency rather than a slightly-pathetic front for the Security Service?
You surrender the carriers you end, in one fell swoop, any ability of ours to launch an expeditionary operation worldwide.
No.
But not enough ships, now, to escort them in hostile waters. Still more so, officers and matelots. That staffing shortage has to be remedied before even thinking about expansion, as I understand the situation.
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
One problem with Amazon is they lump together different suppliers of dropshipped Chinese tat so you cannot be sure what you are ordering.
if you don't know what you bought you should not be allowed a bank account.
The point is you cannot tell if you have bought the version from the supplier you trust or not, because Amazon have lumped them together.
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
I'm very inclined to agree there, that yes we do need to rearm in significant measure.
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been recently - whilst also being in relative decline.
I do think we need to be "correctly armed". Which, AFAICT means determining what we can possibly do independently (i.e. what we actually need to defend our own population; mainly anti-drone and missile tech), what we want to stockpile to support others on actual frontlines (artillery, air defence, medium range missile systems) and what forces we will need to act in concert with various permutations of allies to be able to put a coherent army into the field that is a serious deterrent to conventional attack of those allies.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
The new government is gearing up for a new Strategic Defence Review process, which should give us a better basis for discussion.
The last one, published in March 2021 (after having been delayed for over a year by Brexit and the pandemic) was outdated almost from the start, and has been revised piecemeal since then to account for the changed threat environment with Russia and Iran coming to the fore and our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I do think we need to be very sceptical about some of our current spending - are our aircraft carriers really worth it if we're worried primarily about Russia and their proxies? Would the £1bn or so that we pay each year just to keep them floating not be better spent on the likes of NCSA, or on turning the NPSA into a real agency rather than a slightly-pathetic front for the Security Service?
You surrender the carriers you end, in one fell swoop, any ability of ours to launch an expeditionary operation worldwide.
No.
I'm not sure such an ability really exists even with the carriers as we don't have the flotilla to protect them adequately, aiui.
I agree with your overall slant on defence spending, but if we are serious about countering Russia there is no space for hopeful jingoism. We are no longer a country that can launch an expeditionary operation; we can contribute effectively to others' perhaps.
Instead, we would do well to focus on defence not offence.
Musky Baby appears to be taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook. Try to destablise 'enemy' regimes using their political systems and traitors within that system.
He's found a party in Reform, and a traitor in the shape of Farage.
It's worked for Putin in several places: Belarus and Hungary being two. It may be working in Romania.
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
Do any of his crimes amount to more than just not being very nice? If we cancel every celebrity who is less cuddly than their TV persona, television will look like the Marie Celeste.
It's showbiz. If your schtick is salt of the earth cheeky chappy always ready with an inoffensive quip and it's discovered that you're a dirty bugger with an unhealthy interest in eg the sex life of a lesbian colleague, the magic is gone.
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
(carpetbag)
Unfortunately I cannot see a "Give Voucher to Charity" programme, so I can't advise you how to purchase a warm, fuzzy feeling for £200.
Busy Black Friday Sunday for Santa’s little helpers
Blimey, look at all those Amazon arrow logos.
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
I have about £200 in amazon gift vouchers to use up and I can never find anything to spend it on. Electronics tend to be cheaper elsewhere (and easier to return), books I'd rather get from a shop, mountaineering and cycling kit is better from my local shops (particularly given the safety element).
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
One problem with Amazon is they lump together different suppliers of dropshipped Chinese tat so you cannot be sure what you are ordering.
if you don't know what you bought you should not be allowed a bank account.
The point is you cannot tell if you have bought the version from the supplier you trust or not, because Amazon have lumped them together.
I’d be very naive to downplay the odds of Farage becoming PM.
But the idea that Elon Musk can just give him millions from abroad seems completely unacceptable. How can anyone justify that?
I do think this week we finally saw the new Number 10 team finally getting to grips with things. They sorted out Haigh very quickly and went hard on immigration.
It would be illegal for Musk to donate to Farage
But if Musk employs Farage as an "advisor" on £20m a year, on the private understanding he funds Reform with £19m of that?
He doesn't even have to do that. Twitter (UK) can make the donation, completely above board, no complaint from anyone possible.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I suspect Farage would then try and squeeze the Tory vote more and have a significant chance of an outright Reform majority at any subsequent GE.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
You're similar to Leon in viewing a general election as the end result rather than the actual beginning of government.
A failed government becomes very unpopular very quickly.
There would be little likelihood of a Farage government 'squeezing' the support of other parties.
If Reform overtook the Tories on votes and seats at a GE from that point they would be the main rightwing alternative to Labour.
At which point only Tory ideologues like me would keep voting Tory, plenty of even 2024 Tories would switch to Reform to keep Labour out.
Only PR would then likely keep an independent Tory Party viable, otherwise we would have a similar result to Canada where once their Reform overtook their Tories on votes and seats in 1993 in a decade the Canadian Reform and Tory parties merged to form today's Conservative Party of Canada. A party which leans more to its Reform wing than its smaller Tory wing (a few Canadian Tories having gone Liberal at the merger as some would here too)
You are still obsessing over vote share hypotheticals rather then considering what a Farage government would actually do.
Let me explain:
1) PM Farage gives a load of orders 2) It is explained that they cannot be implemented 3) Farage has a tantrum and goes to a pub 4) Reform MPs argue among themselves 5) Financial markets go bad 6) Farage goes to see Trump or Musk 7) Reform MPs argue among themselves even more 8) Financial markets get worse 9) Government collapses
Musky Baby appears to be taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook. Try to destablise 'enemy' regimes using their political systems and traitors within that system.
He's found a party in Reform, and a traitor in the shape of Farage.
It's worked for Putin in several places: Belarus and Hungary being two. It may be working in Romania.
People on here were speculating earlier why not many women post on Political Betting. Then we have posters defending Gregg's comments as "just banter" and dismissing women who felt humiliated by him as "whingers". Can't people see a connection between the two?
Do any of his crimes amount to more than just not being very nice? If we cancel every celebrity who is less cuddly than their TV persona, television will look like the Marie Celeste.
It's showbiz. If your schtick is salt of the earth cheeky chappy always ready with an inoffensive quip and it's discovered that you're a dirty bugger with an unhealthy interest in eg the sex life of a lesbian colleague, the magic is gone.
If it was down to being an arse at least several of the complainants would have been cancelled 4th raters instead of the 3rd raters they are.
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
I'm very inclined to agree there, that yes we do need to rearm in significant measure.
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been recently - whilst also being in relative decline.
I do think we need to be "correctly armed". Which, AFAICT means determining what we can possibly do independently (i.e. what we actually need to defend our own population; mainly anti-drone and missile tech), what we want to stockpile to support others on actual frontlines (artillery, air defence, medium range missile systems) and what forces we will need to act in concert with various permutations of allies to be able to put a coherent army into the field that is a serious deterrent to conventional attack of those allies.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
I'd be in favour of a European defensive alliance with UK-France-Poland-Scandi/Baltics as the serious countries, although we really need Germany to grow a pair and buy-in there too.
The objective should be to deploy high-tech, high-trained, high-kinetic forces of 250,000 men with all logistical and aerial capability the Americans currently supply for us. Our share of that would be 40-50k, about a corps.
With that sort of force on the central European plain the Russians could never touch us, and nor could anyone else.
That would make some sense. The idea of trying to build our own armoured capability separate from such an alliance is a non starter. We have the added complication of having a defence industry straddling both US and European markets - which leads to such disasters as Ajax, when we could simply have bought (and built here) the CV90.
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
I'm very inclined to agree there, that yes we do need to rearm in significant measure.
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been recently - whilst also being in relative decline.
I do think we need to be "correctly armed". Which, AFAICT means determining what we can possibly do independently (i.e. what we actually need to defend our own population; mainly anti-drone and missile tech), what we want to stockpile to support others on actual frontlines (artillery, air defence, medium range missile systems) and what forces we will need to act in concert with various permutations of allies to be able to put a coherent army into the field that is a serious deterrent to conventional attack of those allies.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
The new government is gearing up for a new Strategic Defence Review process, which should give us a better basis for discussion.
The last one, published in March 2021 (after having been delayed for over a year by Brexit and the pandemic) was outdated almost from the start, and has been revised piecemeal since then to account for the changed threat environment with Russia and Iran coming to the fore and our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I do think we need to be very sceptical about some of our current spending - are our aircraft carriers really worth it if we're worried primarily about Russia and their proxies? Would the £1bn or so that we pay each year just to keep them floating not be better spent on the likes of NCSA, or on turning the NPSA into a real agency rather than a slightly-pathetic front for the Security Service?
You surrender the carriers you end, in one fell swoop, any ability of ours to launch an expeditionary operation worldwide.
No.
But not enough ships, now, to escort them in hostile waters. Still more so, officers and matelots. That staffing shortage has to be remedied before even thinking about expansion, as I understand the situation.
Interesting thought, thinking back to the General Election. In my youth it was almost impossible to do one's National Service in the Navy as the Admiralty apparently thought two years wasn't enough to train and effectively use such recruits.
Musky Baby appears to be taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook. Try to destablise 'enemy' regimes using their political systems and traitors within that system.
He's found a party in Reform, and a traitor in the shape of Farage.
It's worked for Putin in several places: Belarus and Hungary being two. It may be working in Romania.
The question is who is Musk doing this for?
Farage is a traitor to whom?
To the UK if he accepts money from Musk for political purposes.
What if they really DO have a coup and no one believes it happened?
We can’t know until tomorrow. But the thing to watch is the reactions of countries with embassies/consulates in place and/or aid workers out there in numbers.
Can’t remember off hand if we or the rest of the west still have diplomatic relations.
If there really is a coup taking place by now we'd be seeing a flood of images and videos from locals in Damascus. We are not
My guess is there has perhaps been some sporadic gunfire from rebels in the city (because rebels clearly ARE on the march elsewhere in Syria) and they're trying to spook and roil the regime while Assad is away, by making it out to be much bigger
Assad does look imperilled, however
Weren't there reports he is in Moscow currently?
Apparently landed in Damascus several hours ago...
Ah ok thanks, I'm just catching up. Have rather selfishly been focused on living my life today.
Call yourself a PBer? There is no such thing as "life"
I dunno. We once had a poster called @SeanT who had about twelve of them.
I think he retired, having made his millions as an early investor in What3Words.
I heard he retired because he correctly predicted the pandemic about a month before everyone else. But the past is shrouded in myth
No, that was someone called eadric, as I recall
Just for the record, so that I can claim this one over @Leon - the US outbreak of avian flu now spreading widely to milking cows and some pigs is gonna be a bastard human pandemic in a year or so's time.
Yes. That virus is busy mutating and edging closer to fully making the transition to a human flu.
We are pretty good at flu vaccination. Prior to 2020 there was no corona virus vaccines in existence. I wouldnt worry. I’d wait until Feigel dingbat starts shrieking.
Yes. My understanding is that there's already an H5 vaccine. But there's likely to be a bit of a gap between it definitively making the species jump and a vaccine being widely available. A shorter time compared to Covid, but some time nevertheless.
Flu tends not to be infectious without symptoms. That was the real kicker for covid. It made isolation and track and trace very, very hard. We are all scarred by covid (some very much so, as X will show) but we need to remember that covid was a 1 in a century event. We’d be bloody unlucky to get two of those in five years.
Is COVID-19 a once in a century event? It depends what you count. The 20th century had 4 pandemics with at least a million deaths, the three big flu pandemics (Spanish flu, the 1957 pandemic and the 1968 pandemic) and HIV/AIDS. Not as serious, but there was also the 1977 flu pandemic. I’d probably say we get a flu pandemic about once every 25 years.
How often we get other pandemics is harder to determine. But other pandemics are possibly becoming commoner. Since inventing the classification in 2005, the WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern 8 times already, although that’s not the same as a pandemic. Those 8 have been swine flu, 2014 polio outbreaks, the West African Ebola epidemic, Zika, the Kivu Ebola epidemic, COVID-19 and the two mpox outbreaks. (MERS notably wasn’t declared a PHEIC.) They vary in death toll. Most of those had total deaths in the thousands of lower, the exceptions being COVID and swine flu (~284,000 deaths). So, in the first quarter of the current century, we’ve had two big pandemics with COVID and swine flu.
Some really good points. I guess I’m thinking more about our response rather than just actual circulation of a nasty virus. And are you talking worldwide deaths rather than U.K.? I think the use of lockdown has not been tried before, hence my classing covid as a once in a century event. Arguably it was the asymptomatic spread which necessitated that, so maybe that’s the point of difference.
On the latest polling, BMG and Opinium have put up new polls but we're starting to see a bit of consolidation now and a new equilibrium emerging.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
My EMA has: Con 27% Lab 28% LD 12% Ref 19% Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
For now but Farage's approval rating in the latest Opinium is 29%
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
So under your scenario Farage has a weak as water minority government which would collapse if it ever had to do or tried to do anything.
I suspect Farage would then try and squeeze the Tory vote more and have a significant chance of an outright Reform majority at any subsequent GE.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
You're similar to Leon in viewing a general election as the end result rather than the actual beginning of government.
A failed government becomes very unpopular very quickly.
There would be little likelihood of a Farage government 'squeezing' the support of other parties.
If Reform overtook the Tories on votes and seats at a GE from that point they would be the main rightwing alternative to Labour.
At which point only Tory ideologues like me would keep voting Tory, plenty of even 2024 Tories would switch to Reform to keep Labour out.
Only PR would then likely keep an independent Tory Party viable, otherwise we would have a similar result to Canada where once their Reform overtook their Tories on votes and seats in 1993 in a decade the Canadian Reform and Tory parties merged to form today's Conservative Party of Canada. A party which leans more to its Reform wing than its smaller Tory wing (a few Canadian Tories having gone Liberal at the merger as some would here too)
You are still obsessing over vote share hypotheticals rather then considering what a Farage government would actually do.
Let me explain:
1) PM Farage gives a load of orders 2) It is explained that they cannot be implemented 3) Farage has a tantrum and goes to a pub 4) Reform MPs argue among themselves 5) Financial markets go bad 6) Farage goes to see Trump or Musk 7) Reform MPs argue among themselves even more 8) Financial markets get worse 9) Government collapses
That is your hopes overriding reality.
If Farage wins most votes and seats at a GE he led the winning party at he will have a mandate for his proposals Truss never had whatever tax cuts and spending cuts and commitments in Reform's manifesto would have a mandate.
If Reform had overtaken the Tories on votes and seats that would also be it for the Tories as the main anti Labour Party and one of the 2 main parties as much as it was for the Liberals in the early 20th century once Labour overtook them as the main anti Tory Party.
Musky Baby appears to be taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook. Try to destablise 'enemy' regimes using their political systems and traitors within that system.
He's found a party in Reform, and a traitor in the shape of Farage.
It's worked for Putin in several places: Belarus and Hungary being two. It may be working in Romania.
The question is who is Musk doing this for?
Farage is a traitor to whom?
To the UK if he accepts money from Musk for political purposes.
Musky Baby appears to be taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook. Try to destablise 'enemy' regimes using their political systems and traitors within that system.
He's found a party in Reform, and a traitor in the shape of Farage.
It's worked for Putin in several places: Belarus and Hungary being two. It may be working in Romania.
The question is who is Musk doing this for?
Musk has also recently mused about buying Dungeons & Dragons. $100m is less than 0.05% of his wealth. It's such a small amount of money for him that he might do it just for the dopamine hit of likes on twitter.
I wouldn't read too much meaning or conspiracy into it.
Musky Baby appears to be taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook. Try to destablise 'enemy' regimes using their political systems and traitors within that system.
He's found a party in Reform, and a traitor in the shape of Farage.
It's worked for Putin in several places: Belarus and Hungary being two. It may be working in Romania.
The question is who is Musk doing this for?
Farage is a traitor to whom?
To the UK if he accepts money from Musk for political purposes.
That’s just xenophobia.
No, it really is not. You should start trying to use words you actually understand the meaning of.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14144753/elon-musk-reform-nigel-farage-prime-minister.html
We use Amazon almost daily due to sheer convenience, competitive pricing, next day delivery, and an excellent return process
Maybe due to our ages we just want to go into town less, especially when you can get all the benefits from Amazon without the hassle of parking and crowds
I would say E bay are also very good
Edit. I am expecting another shit load of flags for this post like yesterday from the poster who is obviously Donald J. Trump. So for the record and in response to your flags I didn't want you to win the election and I am sorry you did. You are a clear and present danger to US democracy and the safety of Planet Earth!
Perhaps there is a income/wealth element to this; I used Amazon a lot more when I was a student.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNI0hf64Reg
If you want to know where Churchill bought his suits, champagne and aftershave.
Is repeatedly an utter failure in terms of cost. It would have been cheaper to build more Type 45 than to try and save money with “less capable” ships.
The other issue is long lead time items. For artillery production, its shell bodies (the large lump of steel) that takes specialist equipment and has a long lead time. Pouring an explosive fill and making a fuse are much quicker. Plus a 155mm shell body can last forever, unfilled. It’s a shiny, single piece of high quality steel. Put it on a shelf and it’s good for hundreds of years.
So we could have a factory that makes shell bodies, just store them. A reserve of 10 million shell bodies would be seriously valuable. Probably cost a billion or 2 of the actual shell bodies once you get into that scale of manufacturing.
However, I fear that Musk is going to do the very opposite of your rather colourful suggestion
2025 is going to be a very unpredictable year politically and economically
Revealed: UK politics infiltrated by ‘dark money’ with 10% of donations from dubious sources
Cash from dictatorships and shell companies is entering the political system via legal loopholes
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/30/uk-political-donations-dark-money
WFA removal, private school tax, farm tax, energy price increases, NI increases - all of these hit a huge number of people and businesses (who will be telling their staff why their wage rises will be lower, getting laid-off, no more staff etc).
Flirting with a self inflicted recession, increasing unemployment and inflation. People don't ignore these things.
You can't disregard the polls when they are showing the rising feeling in the country. Labour no longer first in Wales today, only four % off fourth. Already lost their lead in some national polls. Reform already having 100K+ members and rising in the polls and impacting local election results.
I'd say people are way more politically engaged than they would normally be six months after a GE.
Admittedly there was heavy rain overnight and this morning's Santa Dash in Sale Water Park was more of a Santa splash. But it feels like we have been remarkably lucky witg tge weather these last two weeks. Everyone has been compaining about endless cloud and rain, but here it has been largely pleasant.
F35 would hammer Russian fighters out of the air. The ground attack aircraft and helicopters would then be easy pickings. They can also “loft” long range anti-radar missiles to take out the Russian SAM systems.
What Ukraine has demonstrated, for the nth time, that while you can survive with air superiority, you can’t win without it. The Russians have never gained air superiority, though they’ve come close in some areas.
Tell me what did you see in the Millionaire Gr....?
As this purports to be a politics focused blog, are we predicting a by-election?
Con 27%
Lab 28%
LD 12%
Ref 19%
Grn 8%
A Labour majority of just 10 with no breakthrough for Reform (10 seats).
And he's never, really learned, the way some of us have (had to). I certainly wonder about one or two of the lines I used to use 'back then'!
I’ll be amazed if it happened or anywhere near that sum.
* Kilmarnock reference.
As already mentioned, the search engine is dreadful - stuffed full of sponsored options that don't actually match the filters you've set. And when you manage to find an item you're interested in, the product page is often messed up, conflating different options from different vendors, amongst many other problems.
I bought a new pair of hiking boots on Friday, and they've just delivered a pair in US size 8, which is too small. Normally I'm wise to that, and go by the EU size if possible but in this case it seems the wrong info was listed in their database. This wasn't a 'fullfilled by Amazon' third party vendor either, it was from Amazon themselves.
I could have got the same pair direct from the manufacturer for £20 more, or from a local outdoors shop for £25 more - either would have been worth it, given the hassle of returning to Amazon that I now face.
Ah well, I've learned my lesson now...
Put figures of Reform 38%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=22&LAB=22&LIB=12&Reform=29&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1862951485421601101
And Badenoch was 22%
The objective should be to deploy high-tech, high-trained, high-kinetic forces of 250,000 men with all logistical and aerial capability the Americans currently supply for us. Our share of that would be 40-50k, about a corps.
With that sort of force on the central European plain the Russians could never touch us, and nor could anyone else.
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1862951485421601101
Put figures of Reform 29%, Labour 22% (Starmer's approval rating) and Tories 22% (Badenoch's approval rating) into EC and you get Reform 277 seats, Labour 140 and Tories 97 and LDs 73.
So Farage becomes PM if he could get Tory confidence and supply in such a scenario where he gets all those who have a favourable view of him now to vote Reform which is still not happening at present
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=22&LAB=22&LIB=12&Reform=29&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged®orseat=(none)&boundary=2024
Nurses, doctors..... OK. Pharmacists, Radiographers.... possibly. Receptionists?
Farage is still the most toxic figure in UK politics today.
Reserved for marching, arms locked, in formation, into minefields. At gun point.
The chances of Farage becoming PM are not negligible, whatever you think of him he has more charisma than Starmer or Badenoch and a little bit more than Davey too
4 and a half years isn't actually that long. If Labour want to get re-elected then they will need for the following to happen:
1) A growing economy and an easing of the cost of living crisis
2) Noticeably better public services
3) Sharply reduced immigration
I don't like the way that Government implements change. It seems to be slow and laborious and involve endless consultations and rounds of review. And then when it does get implemented it never gets revisited again.
I would prefer more of a management by doing approach where you put something in place even if you know it's only likely to be 80% right and then you regularly review and tweak
It's utter nonsense on a whole number of dynamics, logic and reason.
The biggest iceberg on the horizon though is still to arrive.
Far from enhancing Farage, the complete and utter shit show that will engulf Washington in January 2025 and create civil war in the USA, will be viewed in full in the UK.
Watch Reform populism crash and burn more quickly than Sinclairs C5 or Betamax
But the idea that Elon Musk can just give him millions from abroad seems completely unacceptable. How can anyone justify that?
I do think this week we finally saw the new Number 10 team finally getting to grips with things. They sorted out Haigh very quickly and went hard on immigration.
Spoecially for @TSE - and some interesting-sounding ideas, beginning with Tokyo Godfathers.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0388473/
No.
But the current liberal consensus that “nothing can be done” is toxic. And provides a perfect opening for “We will build the trains on time.”
A failed government becomes very unpopular very quickly.
There would be little likelihood of a Farage government 'squeezing' the support of other parties.
At which point only Tory ideologues like me would keep voting Tory, plenty of even 2024 Tories would switch to Reform to keep Labour out.
Only PR would then likely keep an independent Tory Party viable, otherwise we would have a similar result to Canada where once their Reform overtook their Tories on votes and seats in 1993 in a decade the Canadian Reform and Tory parties merged to form today's Conservative Party of Canada. A party which leans more to its Reform wing than its smaller Tory wing (a few Canadian Tories having gone Liberal at the merger as some would here too)
Reform are not going away and are clearly a threat to both labour and conservatives that needs addressing, but I do not see Farage as PM
Presents the issue rather well
I agree with your overall slant on defence spending, but if we are serious about countering Russia there is no space for hopeful jingoism. We are no longer a country that can launch an expeditionary operation; we can contribute effectively to others' perhaps.
Instead, we would do well to focus on defence not offence.
He's found a party in Reform, and a traitor in the shape of Farage.
It's worked for Putin in several places: Belarus and Hungary being two. It may be working in Romania.
The question is who is Musk doing this for?
Unfortunately I cannot see a "Give Voucher to Charity" programme, so I can't advise you how to purchase a warm, fuzzy feeling for £200.
(/carpetbag)
Let me explain:
1) PM Farage gives a load of orders
2) It is explained that they cannot be implemented
3) Farage has a tantrum and goes to a pub
4) Reform MPs argue among themselves
5) Financial markets go bad
6) Farage goes to see Trump or Musk
7) Reform MPs argue among themselves even more
8) Financial markets get worse
9) Government collapses
The idea of trying to build our own armoured capability separate from such an alliance is a non starter.
We have the added complication of having a defence industry straddling both US and European markets - which leads to such disasters as Ajax, when we could simply have bought (and built here) the CV90.
At least we have NATO standards ammunition.
If Farage wins most votes and seats at a GE he led the winning party at he will have a mandate for his proposals Truss never had whatever tax cuts and spending cuts and commitments in Reform's manifesto would have a mandate.
If Reform had overtaken the Tories on votes and seats that would also be it for the Tories as the main anti Labour Party and one of the 2 main parties as much as it was for the Liberals in the early 20th century once Labour overtook them as the main anti Tory Party.
I wouldn't read too much meaning or conspiracy into it.