Categories
Defence of the realm – politicalbetting.com
Defence of the realm – politicalbetting.com
Following Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons against the west, 26% of Britons say defence is one of the most important issues facing the country, the highest level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022The economy: 49% (-2 from 16-18 Nov)Immigration: 42% (-2)… pic.twitter.com/PcnYRvAtry
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
That ship has already sailed. You mean if he was to break the new promise made by Rachel at the CBI....that no other front bencher will repeat.
On Syria
https://x.com/bdsixsmith/status/1863114593024827611?s=61
Russian hacking software used to steal hundreds of MoD log-ins
Passwords belonging to nearly 600 UK armed personnel, MoD officials and defence contractors have been stolen by cybercriminals
https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-hacking-software-steal-mod-log-ins-3406382
And drones over air bases, drones over carriers.
This of course follows decades of Tory defence cuts.
https://x.com/nationcymru/status/1863124626672439651?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
In 2009-10, the final year of the last Labour government, defence spending was £57billion (in today’s money). The incoming Tory government then starved defence of funds, as part of its austerity drive, reaching a nadir of £44.5billion in 2016-17.
Thereafter, defence spending started to creep up again. But, even as the world became a much more dangerous place, in 2023-24 (the last full financial year of Conservative rule) it was still only £54billion, £3billion in real terms below where it had been 14 years before.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14115919/ANDREW-NEIL-Britains-defenceless-against-nuclear-strike-three-radical-steps-save-woeful-Labour-government-listen.html
Starmer has also made clear he will essentially follow US lead on foreign policy. He only authorised missile attacks by UK missiles on Russia after Biden had done so and once Trump gets in and cancels them he will likely follow suit.
As for tax rises, while his government has not increased income tax it has certainly frozen the threshold and increased taxes in plenty of other areas too
How often we get other pandemics is harder to determine. But other pandemics are possibly becoming commoner. Since inventing the classification in 2005, the WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern 8 times already, although that’s not the same as a pandemic. Those 8 have been swine flu, 2014 polio outbreaks, the West African Ebola epidemic, Zika, the Kivu Ebola epidemic, COVID-19 and the two mpox outbreaks. (MERS notably wasn’t declared a PHEIC.) They vary in death toll. Most of those had total deaths in the thousands of lower, the exceptions being COVID and swine flu (~284,000 deaths). So, in the first quarter of the current century, we’ve had two big pandemics with COVID and swine flu.
I know what Reform stand for. I don’t know what the Tories stand for. We can all see the enthusiastic surge of interest in Reform. Where is the enthusiastic surge of true blue Tories coming back with your amazing new leader and dynamic vision for the future?
Edit: one of the papers wondered about digging up a specific Tudor aristo to test for DNA ...
Plaid 24
Lab 23
Ref 23
Cons 19
Greens 6
LDs 5
Other 1
I assume on those figs it would be a PC-Lab coalition with a PC FM.
Those figures indicate a huge shift away from Labour and we could see a near 4 way tie in 18 months
As far as North Wales is concerned the conservatives have won four locals recently in strong Labour areas, but how Reform progress, not only in Wales but also in Scotland and the red wall will be one to watch
Preparing for a war is the best way to stop a war from ever happening.
The perception I'm picking up (since the announcement) is that this is a useful start - basically stopping throwing good money after bad. £500m is somewhat more than the cost of an extra Type 31 frigate, which are the "not gold plated" ones.
"Sitrep: Government making sensible cuts as Defence needs to do fewer things, but better"
The recent cuts announced by the Defence Secretary are mostly "sensible" that show this Government means what it says, according to defence expert Professor Michael Clarke.
John Healey has decided to cut 14 Chinooks, 17 Pumas, 46 Watchkeeper drones, one frigate, two RFA tankers and both the Royal Navy's landing platform dock ships.
But Prof Clarke said the cuts outlined the fact that it is "not worth carrying on keeping these things alive on paper".
https://www.forcesnews.com/services/navy/sitrep-government-making-sensible-cuts-defence-needs-do-fewer-things-better
The toy-loving, 'we need 3% ... 3.5% ... 4-5% ..." commentators over at UK Defence Journal have been more gentle with these proposals than I was expecting - they are better on detail than rhetoric. The Govt imo are being dull but sensible. What we do need is a more rapid Defence Review, and dismantling of some of the things that Camosborne got wrong chasing ideology.
But there's a hell of a lot of plumbing and infra and capacity to be put in as bones as we build back, in order to do it effectively. Like everything else, it's going to be feeding trifle to a concentration camp survivor.
IMO it might make sense for some of this to go to Ukraine. I'm surprised they have not already had more of our 50+ leftover Sea King helicopters - with whatever can be made of those. @Malmesbury might have something to add.
And yes after yesterday I am expecting a shit load of flags for tacitly criticising Trump. Are we The framing that Labour are responsible for fourteen defence cuts suits the media narrative better.
Got to say I'm reluctant to back either Russell or Verstappen. The penalty is so weird I wouldn't be surprised if it got cancelled.
Trevor Phillips of Sky says ways of putting off decisions - 'Government by review ' ?
The leadership (Farage, Tice) are unreconstructed Thatcherites who want big tax and spending cuts. However, many of those who joined Reform and vote for Reform want something else - some, a lot I'd imagine, were big fans of Boris Johnson and the "levelling up" agenda which meant lots more public funding for the north and especially the WWC north. They also want more resources on law and order, local services and the NHS to remove the perceived or actual stigma of feeling "left behind" against the south.
In time, this will cause problems but the glue which holds them all together is immigration but even that is nuanced. I suspect there are plenty of Reform voters whose view on immigration is nearer that of Britain First, others will simply want net zero migration and others to see the net migration number sharply lower (and there's obviously racial and cultural overtones to all of that as well).
Like every other party, Reform is a messy coalition of often very different interest groups and factions whose broad level of concensus is quite limited and whose policy differences below the surface are substantial.
Welsh Tories also up on the 18% they got in Wales at the general election
Game over Gregg, game over.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/01/brazilians-deported-home-office-secret-flights-uk
The issue I have is that if we rebuild our society, they could just piss it all away again next time round.
But I need more data ... how many flue pandemics since say 1925? 1975? How many in Europe / UK?
What you don't do is just announce a policy and hope magically it all comes together like trying to do a 1000 piece jigsaw when hungover.
If that's how people think Government does or should work we really need to get some proper education on Government and public policy making into our schools.
In any case, policy needs to evolve as circumstances change - yes, you can have the principles of policy but the detail has to be flexible.
Farage was less than gracious over his departure.
You’d expect he would be getting advice on how to handle this.
Look how that turned out. Not only are things bad, in many areas, nobody knows exactly how bad they are.
Labour have dropped to the upper 20s but retain a narrow lead over the Conservatives who are in the mid to upper 20s. Reform are around 20% with the LDs around 10-12% and the Greens in upper single figures.
The Labour/Conservative duopoly is holding in the mid 50s currently so not much different from July. Reform have moved forward mostly at Labour's expense while the Conservatives are up a little and the LDs about the same.
It's a fragmentation we've not seen in British politics for decades, if ever. Trying to call the next GE at this stage is the ultimate expression of hopecasting.
It's the problem for any "everything for everyone" insurgency. See Lib Dems in 2010, or Brexit after 2016.
That's the problem with most of the "ideas", whether from opposition think-tanks or from anonymous individuals on an Internet discussion forum. Like most analogies, they don't stand up to close inspection and most policy ideas quickly fall apart under any kind of detailed scrutiny.
There may be an inate caution at work here as well - to what extent is the scope of any review or consultation to see how it might fail rather than how it might succeed?
Betting PostF1: very difficult to call. Went for a Leclerc podium at 3.6.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/12/qatar-pre-race-2024.html
See Bondegezou's postings earlier (no, seriously) ...
Swine flu 2009-10: 392 deaths in the UK
Russian flu 1977-9: ~700k worldwide deaths, but UK deaths unclear
Hong Kong flu 1968-70: 30k deaths in England & Wales
Asian flu 1957-8: 33k UK deaths
I'd quite appreciate a header, comparing rearmament in the 1930s vs now, with costs and with respect to the economic background. I'll make this chart of Defence Expenditure from 1900 to present. It's a surprise how low it was right up to 1914, and ramping up in the 1930s was a little earlier - from around 1936.
But the numbers are deceptive due to the British Empire being dominant in the world economy in the early years (from WIki - 1870: 24%; 1913: 20%, USA: 9% and 19%), as the USA has been dominant recently - whilst the USA also being in slower relative decline recently.
In 1914 the UK had 43% of world shipping by tonnage.
https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/past_spending
Until it is of course.
There was a genuine philosophical convergence between the Orange Bookers and the Cameron "liberal Conservative" agenda (inevitably given the LDs had been unable to formulate any other response to Cameron after 2005 than to imitate him to try to shore up the vote in their key constituencies).
There was a genuinely good personal relationship between Clegg and Cameron but the main factor was the 2010 result made any option other than a Con-LD coalition impossible. For a party which I thought had "gamed" the option of going in with the Conservatives, the LDs were appallingly naive in the post-election negotiations but the Conservatives had 300 seats and the LDs 60 - had it been 200 and 160 for example it would have been very different.
I think those who "know" what the LDs will do IF the next election produces a Parliament where no one party has an overall majority forget the deep psychological scarring of the Coalition experience which nearly destroyed the party and destroyed 30 years of local progress.
It's no longer a question of equidistance - it's equidistance with a 50 foot barge pole added. I suspect, if he has any sense, Farage will also note what happened and make his plans accordingly for any post-election wheeling and dealing.
If you wanted to distil the election into one constituency then perhaps you have it right here. Greens and SF nowhere to be seen. Independent Ireland and Social Democrats doing well. Fine Gael bungled it again. No change overall.
I'm reminded of a comment from a female colleague a long time ago (perhaps 1990s) about a different colleague:
"He's the sort of man who always seems to end up talking to you about your underwear."
As mentioned, a green grocer who got into media via Charlie Hicks inviting him onto a R4 phone in called Veg Talk 20+ years ago. Bit of a wide boy, in Oz or Cockney style.
* With apologies to George Doors.
In the current climate most of that hinges on what close cooperation we can develop with Poland, France, and the Scandinavian/Baltics countries.
Do you share my impression that normal people (i.e., not the likes of me and thee) are pretty switched off from politics right now and likely to remain so for a while?
If so, I think we can disregard polls for a bit, and the whining of the usual suspects, while the government gets quietly on with the job of trying to govern. The general public will largely ignore this and concentrate on the important things in life, like who will win the King George this year, where is the nearest car boot sale this weekend, and what do you think that nice Mr Wallace really said?
Normal people are a bit politicked out, I think.
More a "War Games" man myself
Expensive job-creating boondongles might work well in a world at peace, but as we see in an actual war, what’s needed is mostly cheap and needed in quantity.
But there are other core items which have been disastrously mismanaged (recruitment, cuts, pilot training, perhaps maintenance, housing).
For me on most things, the current Govt cannot be evaluated for at least another 12 months.
Farage’s track record shows that not likely.
Labour to tell EU: We’ll take your students if you help our lawyers
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-to-tell-eu-well-take-your-students-if-you-help-our-lawyers-dkr2vqpmz (£££)
Some input from our military historians would be welcome - and the crash rearmament program of 1950 might make also for a good comparison. It came as the result of our involvement in the Korean War - although we were able to fight that largely using surplus stock from WW2, it did serve to make the Soviet threat much more obvious (so might be seen as analogous to Ukraine today).
AIUI, the sudden switch of our industrial capacity to defence production (with spending almost doubling over the course of 1950-53) caused an inflationary spike and triggered the cycle of stop-go oscillations which plagued our economy for the next 25-30 years.
Thatcher had hinterland, even if you disagreed very strongly. I prefer "neo-Thatcherite" - as I see the current Reform, Truss etc are more like a card board cut out of Thatcher they have drawn with poster paints.
The Reform manifesto was marketing and dog whistles, with no financial reality attached - actually quite like Trump in some ways.
Much could be there already if decent starts had been made in 2022, but much of that didn't happen. We did thing around a new ammunition factory or two (eg in Washington), but I have not seen notes of 24x7 production, quantities sent etc.
One where Europe has effectively vanishingly small capacity is MLRS.
The UK has significant capacity in - of all things - gas masks, which would make a big difference given Russian wide use of chemical weapons. They use them to force UKr forces out of bunkers for drones to hey at. But I've not seen that we have sent 100s of thousands of such.
Another identified was smart control heads for cheap rockets - a job similar to artillery smart-shells, where Europe has much stock.
We will see.
Is it a political channel?
And really if you are going to make a post suggesting women should know their place and that politics is above them what do you expect. I think my post was restrained suggesting you had mistaken here for a Victorian forum. The other reply from someone else linking to the Harry Enfield sketch 'Women know your place' was better than mine.
Honestly how chauvinistic can you get.
Are your a fan of Greg Wallace?
For example Poland’s current government will be cooperative. Law & Justice was less constructive
"I listened to a programme ..."
Personally I cannot understand how Amazon remains the dominant on-line retailer - their search engine is utterly, utterly shite. I assume they are giving you results you did not ask for because they are paid to do so but surely there's a market for a company returning results the user actually asked for. Even eBay is good in comparison.
Rant over. Now, where's that Amazon gizmo I ordered?
That doesn't matter because (a) they aren't about to become the government and (b) the weaponised ignorance and stupidity of so many gives them a very large number of target voters to appeal to.
The question was asked - what do they stand for? With a supposed juxtaposition between small staters and northern invest in us voters. I say supposed because Reform will tell you there isn't a problem. So much of the money we spend is wasted, they can both shrink the state and invest in the front line by spending better.
It's a crayon drawing. But its speaking to people in a way that is simple enough for them to relate to. How much of todays politics is complex because its complex because its complex? It doesn't need to be complex - if we remove the complexity which is there only to fuel itself.
Feels like it in the comments sometimes when Muskybaby gets mentioned...
The last one, published in March 2021 (after having been delayed for over a year by Brexit and the pandemic) was outdated almost from the start, and has been revised piecemeal since then to account for the changed threat environment with Russia and Iran coming to the fore and our withdrawal from Afghanistan.
I do think we need to be very sceptical about some of our current spending - are our aircraft carriers really worth it if we're worried primarily about Russia and their proxies? Would the £1bn or so that we pay each year just to keep them floating not be better spent on the likes of NCSA, or on turning the NPSA into a real agency rather than a slightly-pathetic front for the Security Service?
One remade in her image has no such restaurants. And, as frequently noted, many of our most persistent problems find their roots in her term in government.
https://x.com/ireland_votes2
The most political cafe known to me, apart from Lloyds Coffee House circa 17xx, or the Partisan Coffee House in 196x, was in 'Allo 'Allo.
I've actually had a look at the Reform website and eventually found their policies. The difference between the aims..... cutting taxes and 'red tape' ..... and the requirement for more spending is quite stark.
Especially the wooden furniture. None of that nasty plastic.