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The new divides – politicalbetting.com

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  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,205
    edited November 7
    MattW said:

    theProle said:

    eek said:

    Fishing said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Cookie

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.

    He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.

    Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
    Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.

    This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
    Ahahahahahaha
    My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers.
    In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.

    Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point

    “I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.

    The response?

    "That will be the way we go forwards"

    Watch for yourself.”

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/1854434448764485959?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
    Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
    That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
    We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
    So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.

    I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
    You keep saying this, and every time people respond with "I would cut x" and you ignore them.

    Last time we had this conversation, I gave the specific example where my council was spending £3 million* to make my journey to work slower, on a road that isn't dangerous. That's on one road about 12 miles long.
    How many times over are they doing that all over the country?

    That's just one specific example, but it's repeated endlessly. My town has a shiny new roundabout, again £3 million quid. It exists to provide access to a patch of land which the council wanted to put in the local plan for housing. There was massive local opposition, (the land in question is a popular open public space), in the end they backed down and put somewhere else in the local plan instead. But they built the roundabout anyway. So now we have a £3 million quid roundabout to no-where.

    Note, both of these schemes are probably classed as CapEx, so can come out of Rachel's extra borrowing, to ensure we get to pay for them for year and years to come.

    *Plus all the money spent preparing bids for the money from central government, getting planning permission from themselves etc. etc.
    Does this not fit the principle that we are supposed to build infra first, rather than spending 3x as much and disrupting by then established transport networks to shoehorn it in later?

    No. If we're building houses somewhere, I'm fine with putting in the road connection point first. Makes complete logical sense. (The other end of town, we got the complete opposite, months of roadworks on a major A road whilst they did half a job of building the entrance to a new housing estate, then dug most of it up again several times to install the services, then dug it up again to install the finished entrance layout)

    Building a connection to a site which is not designated for housing, and where there is massive local opposition to it being designated for housing after you've had to remove said site from the proposed local plan because of all the opposition is not "building infra first" - it's spending money pointlessly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    That reminds me. Trump appeared on Dechambeau's popular YouTube channel. He was mocked on twitter for clip of his putting style, but again, it did 12 million views and in his element of golfing he doesn't come across as Orange Hitler. He comes across as your weekend golfer excited to play with a pro and ask about how pros are so good, how do they play certain shots. Its all very clever marketing.

    It makes we wonder, has Trump got the Apprentice gang back together to do what they did for him on cable tv, but on YouTube?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    Pulpstar said:

    Just put £1 at 207-1 on Harris popular vote ;)

    So far:

    Trump 72,641,564
    Harris 67,957,895

    :innocent:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764

    The Guardian has just posted that "Mike Amesbury, the MP suspended by Labour pending an investigation, has been charged with assault after an incident following a night out."According to Cheshire Police.

    By-election incoming!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just put £1 at 207-1 on Harris popular vote ;)

    What is your thinking? How close is it?
    Oh I think it loses but who knows how much late stuff there is to come in from places like Los Angeles and Washington state.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just put £1 at 207-1 on Harris popular vote ;)

    What is your thinking? How close is it?
    Oh I think it loses but who knows how much late stuff there is to come in from places like Los Angeles and Washington state.
    You could have got 1000 on the Election Winner/Popular Vote Winner market.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,013

    The Guardian has just posted that "Mike Amesbury, the MP suspended by Labour pending an investigation, has been charged with assault after an incident following a night out."According to Cheshire Police.

    By-election incoming!
    Probably a boring one tho'.
  • algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/MichaelJStern1/status/1854151798421913732

    Michael J. Stern

    CNN has a story titled “where the Harris campaign went wrong.”

    Nope, I won’t read it.

    Harris ran a great campaign.

    The story should be titled “where the American people went wrong.”
    1:20 PM · Nov 6, 2024

    120k likes on that.

    If the Democrats spend the next 4 years blaming voters as they seem to want to do now then it's all over.

    I'm not sure that's true. The Democrats and their allies in the liberal media spent four years blaming the Deplorables for electing Trump in 2016 and still won in 2020. Same with GWB in 2004 and then 2008.

    A prissy, self-righteous sense of their own virtue and superiority is a characteristic of the modern left, but they sometimes win elections despite that. And don't forget in 2028 you're not going to have the ghastly but apparently weirdly charismatic figure of Trump running. Had the sniper been a slightly better shot in July I can't see Vance pulling off the victory Trump just did.
    Peak Guardian here


    "When people are more concerned that a trans girl might play on a softball team than that the climate crisis might profoundly devastate the biosphere and much of life on it, human and otherwise, for the next 10,000 years, the media has failed. When people worry about crime when it is low, an economy when it is thriving and immigrants when they do much of the hard work that sustains that economy and commit fewer crimes than the native-born, the media has failed to reach them."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/our-mistake-was-to-think-we-lived-in-a-better-country-than-we-do/ar-AA1tFy27?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=490dac3c64a6498c848ce70f6f69a2bb&ei=10
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734

    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/MichaelJStern1/status/1854151798421913732

    Michael J. Stern

    CNN has a story titled “where the Harris campaign went wrong.”

    Nope, I won’t read it.

    Harris ran a great campaign.

    The story should be titled “where the American people went wrong.”
    1:20 PM · Nov 6, 2024

    120k likes on that.

    If the Democrats spend the next 4 years blaming voters as they seem to want to do now then it's all over.

    There are two campaigns. One of them has to lose. The idea that everything the losing campaign did was a mistake and everything the winning campaign did was genius is a nonsense. Particularly when the result wasn’t a landslide.

    The 2028 election will also be very different. There will be 2 new candidates. The background will be entirely different. There’s a limit to what a campaign post mortem can tell the Democrats about what to do in 4 years time.

    I don’t think the losing side need to work out what happened and why today. Let them lick their wounds. I’m certain they won’t spend the next 4 years blaming the voters. In practice, some time in 2025, they’ll be working out what their 2026 midterms strategy is. There’s no reason to presume one post on Twitter represents anything of note!
    To be fair, by what I've seen posted on here, quite a lot of Democrats are doing quite a lot of thought about what they did wrong. Though possibly these are the Dems who were Kamala-sceptic all along but holding their tongues.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,034

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    One would think there is an opportunity for a "no tips expected" restaurant chain which pays a living wage :smile: .
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.instagram.com/p/DCC3TFUBbkO/?igsh=MmFqMWgzYnBwczV1

    Statement fro Bernie Sanders. He's spotted it, blue collar Americans feel worse off than when they did in 2020 and largely they are worse off. There's no amount of charts or statistics that will change their minds when their take home pay has gone from $3k per month to $3.5k per month but the cost of bread has gone from $1.50 to $4, average Americans are feeling the pinch and all the Harris campaign did was ignore those feelings and quote a bunch of statistics back at them.

    The most powerful ad I saw during the election was one of Trumps. It was a list of grocery staples and how much they cost when he was President and how much they cost now.

    The difference was stark.

    The message powerful.

    Kamala Harris had no answer to it apart from non specific stuff about "price gouging"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7
    MattW said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    One would think there is an opportunity for a "no tips expected" restaurant chain which pays a living wage :smile: .
    There are some restaurants in NYC that have done that, but tipping is so engrained in US culture, especially restaurants, it would be a really high risk move for a chain to do that.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,813

    The Guardian has just posted that "Mike Amesbury, the MP suspended by Labour pending an investigation, has been charged with assault after an incident following a night out."According to Cheshire Police.

    By-election incoming!
    Is that really necessary?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    edited November 7

    MaxPB said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    Who in turn will screw over the employees by freezing pay for 3 years as the OBR has predicted.
    Again this is why Labour's budget was so illogical. This NI rise is going to hit the lower paid the worst as business will pass on the vast bulk of the costs, not just of NI, but new labour rights, etc. The cost / benefit analysis is very clear at that level. People being employed on a £100k a year, businesses aren't penny pinching their labour, getting the right person costs £1000s to recruit anyway.
    We've talked ad nauseam on PB about the costs of cheap labour to UK productivity and to our benefits bill, with millions of people in in-work poverty. We've been subsidising supermarkets and other large NMW employers for ages; this is the other side of that coin.

    The one thing I would have done is to expand employment allowance for small businesses. My rough calcs suggest it only covers about 5 or 6 employees - I'd expand that up to 20 or so, or from £5,000 to £20,000. That could re-balance our economy towards small businesses.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,706
    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://www.instagram.com/p/DCC3TFUBbkO/?igsh=MmFqMWgzYnBwczV1

    Statement fro Bernie Sanders. He's spotted it, blue collar Americans feel worse off than when they did in 2020 and largely they are worse off. There's no amount of charts or statistics that will change their minds when their take home pay has gone from $3k per month to $3.5k per month but the cost of bread has gone from $1.50 to $4, average Americans are feeling the pinch and all the Harris campaign did was ignore those feelings and quote a bunch of statistics back at them.

    The most powerful ad I saw during the election was one of Trumps. It was a list of grocery staples and how much they cost when he was President and how much they cost now.

    The difference was stark.

    The message powerful.

    Kamala Harris had no answer to it apart from non specific stuff about "price gouging"
    The average shopping basket in America has doubled in cost basically. It's been bad here with a ~30% rise at peak (we're actually below the peak now because quite a few basic items are falling in price) but in the US it's a different level of awful for working class families struggling on $50-60k per year.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
  • MattW said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    The Sainsbury's numbers sound like normal special interest group squealing.

    See farmers and IHT, or well off pensioners spending £1000-2000 a year looking after their dogs who are suddenly going to starve this afternoon because they have lost £150 or £300 in heating bill benefit.

    Sainsbury's claim the cost will be £140 million. Their turnover is £36 billion per annum.

    So the extra cost is 0.38% of turnover. For a single hit that is unlikely to have much more on top, that does not seem to be an existential threat.
    Last ten years of profits for Sainsburys:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/386446/sainsburys-profits-united-kingdom-uk/

    If the cost is £140 million its a number greater than their post tax profits.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,288
    Taz said:

    Fishing said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/MichaelJStern1/status/1854151798421913732

    Michael J. Stern

    CNN has a story titled “where the Harris campaign went wrong.”

    Nope, I won’t read it.

    Harris ran a great campaign.

    The story should be titled “where the American people went wrong.”
    1:20 PM · Nov 6, 2024

    120k likes on that.

    If the Democrats spend the next 4 years blaming voters as they seem to want to do now then it's all over.

    I'm not sure that's true. The Democrats and their allies in the liberal media spent four years blaming the Deplorables for electing Trump in 2016 and still won in 2020. Same with GWB in 2004 and then 2008.

    A prissy, self-righteous sense of their own virtue and superiority is a characteristic of the modern left, but they sometimes win elections despite that. And don't forget in 2028 you're not going to have the ghastly but apparently weirdly charismatic figure of Trump running. Had the sniper been a slightly better shot in July I can't see Vance pulling off the victory Trump just did.
    Peak Guardian here


    "When people are more concerned that a trans girl might play on a softball team than that the climate crisis might profoundly devastate the biosphere and much of life on it, human and otherwise, for the next 10,000 years, the media has failed. When people worry about crime when it is low, an economy when it is thriving and immigrants when they do much of the hard work that sustains that economy and commit fewer crimes than the native-born, the media has failed to reach them."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/our-mistake-was-to-think-we-lived-in-a-better-country-than-we-do/ar-AA1tFy27?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=490dac3c64a6498c848ce70f6f69a2bb&ei=10
    It is Peak Guardian.

    The combination of assuming that one is virtuous, posturing anger, and lip-quivering anguish.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    Who in turn will screw over the employees by freezing pay for 3 years as the OBR has predicted.
    Again this is why Labour's budget was so illogical. This NI rise is going to hit the lower paid the worst as business will pass on the vast bulk of the costs, not just of NI, but new labour rights, etc. The cost / benefit analysis is very clear at that level. People being employed on a £100k a year, businesses aren't penny pinching their labour, getting the right person costs £1000s to recruit anyway.
    We've talked ad nauseam on PB about the costs of cheap labour to UK productivity and to our benefits bill, with millions of people in in-work poverty. We've been subsidising supermarkets and other large NMW employers for ages; this is the other side of that coin.

    The one thing I would have done is to expand employment allowance for small businesses. My rough calcs suggest it only covers about 5 or 6 employees - I'd expand that up to 20 or so, or from £5,000 to £20,000. That could re-balance our economy towards small businesses.
    You could taper it all the way up if you wanted....UK problem is too many micro businesses and then a small number of mega corps. We need far more medium sized companies, from which new world leaders can arise. The problem is our system has become heavily weighted on turn-over taxes (and I understand why, Starbucks etc taking the piss by avoiding profits), but this has made turning your micro-business into a small then medium sized on even harder.

    And the budget, it made it worse. Employ 2-3 people you are better off, but expand beyond 5, worse off. That is bloody stupid. We want to encourage the opposite.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,753
    Interesting to hear of US costs for ordinary people given their overall economic growth has eclipsed that of the largest European nations over the last decade or so.
  • Foss said:

    The Guardian has just posted that "Mike Amesbury, the MP suspended by Labour pending an investigation, has been charged with assault after an incident following a night out."According to Cheshire Police.

    By-election incoming!
    Probably a boring one tho'.
    Would imagine that Reform really fancy their chances. Conservatives normally would and they probably have a very good candidate if she stands again. I'd expect Labour vote to drop dramatically, just depends if one of the other two (Green/LD have no real standing here) can get above them.

    Parts of this seat are rural. Good test of Labour's farming policies. A low general turnout, with a high turnout in rural areas could make it interesting.

    Long way out, but close Labour hold would suspect at the moment. Could alter that opinion though.
  • MattW said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    The Sainsbury's numbers sound like normal special interest group squealing.

    See farmers and IHT, or well off pensioners spending £1000-2000 a year looking after their dogs who are suddenly going to starve this afternoon because they have lost £150 or £300 in heating bill benefit.

    Sainsbury's claim the cost will be £140 million. Their turnover is £36 billion per annum.

    So the extra cost is 0.38% of turnover. For a single hit that is unlikely to have much more on top, that does not seem to be an existential threat.
    It's not an existential threat. However....

    "In the financial year ending March second in 2024, Sainsbury's recorded a profit of 277 million British pounds before tax and 137 million British pounds after tax."

    In that context, £140 million is a lot of money.

    The response by Sainsburys and other retailers, will be to put up prices and squeeze suppliers.
    Just realised I made exactly the same point... but later.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited November 7
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    Who in turn will screw over the employees by freezing pay for 3 years as the OBR has predicted.
    Again this is why Labour's budget was so illogical. This NI rise is going to hit the lower paid the worst as business will pass on the vast bulk of the costs, not just of NI, but new labour rights, etc. The cost / benefit analysis is very clear at that level. People being employed on a £100k a year, businesses aren't penny pinching their labour, getting the right person costs £1000s to recruit anyway.
    We've talked ad nauseam on PB about the costs of cheap labour to UK productivity and to our benefits bill, with millions of people in in-work poverty. We've been subsidising supermarkets and other large NMW employers for ages; this is the other side of that coin.

    The one thing I would have done is to expand employment allowance for small businesses. My rough calcs suggest it only covers about 5 or 6 employees - I'd expand that up to 20 or so, or from £5,000 to £20,000. That could re-balance our economy towards small businesses.
    Need to sort the group thing too - we're hammered because of being a group; and part of a larger group on stuff like this. We have 30 employees.
    £20,000 limit to the group head; and only the group head co. (And no linked companies) would work and prevent abuse of people just setting up lots of 20 ppl cos for the sake of it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,008
    edited November 7

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I lost too much on 2024 to have any stakes available for 2028!

    Did you pile on Harris PV ?
    Yeah. That was where I totally fucked it.
    in a lot of ways that was an obvious bet - from here we simply didn't see how unpopular Harris was...
    She was ahead in almost all the final polls and models in the PV, so I thought 1.4-1.5 value, and I thought Trump never would given how polarising he was and the fact no Republican had done it for 20 years.

    A salutatory lesson.
    I think treating it as a learning experience is the only way to handle it. You fucked up. Well, we all do it at some point. Yours was survivable (I assume you didn't lose the house, wife and kids) so don't beat yourself up about it. Wash your face, brush your teeth, comb your hair and remember there's always a next time and don't make the same mistake twice. Good luck for next time, yes?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,971
    .

    algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
    We know restrictive abortion laws increase maternal mortality from various past studies, e.g. Farin et al. (2024, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20220208 ), and indeed also on infant mortality, e.g. Burdick et al. (2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379723004087 ).

    Govern et al. (2024; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1729 ) in the BMJ summarise the current US situation, although teasing out the effect of COVID-19 and changes in the law are complicated.

    There are plenty of individual cases being reported regularly, e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amber-thurman-delayed-abortion-georgia/ , https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala , https://msmagazine.com/2024/11/04/women-die-abortion-ban-elections-vote/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7

    Interesting to hear of US costs for ordinary people given their overall economic growth has eclipsed that of the largest European nations over the last decade or so.

    Its because that growth has really been tilted towards certain sectors e.g. Nvidia have been going gangbusters, they now have more than a third of employees have a net worth of more than $20 million, 76% of them are millionaires....

    7 companies are responsible the vast bulk of increase in the stock market value.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,706
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    She recommends food trucks in LA whenever we've been because there's much less pressure to tip and the prices are still reasonable. She took us to a truck last summer where you could get 4 birria tacos, a mexican soft drink and a churro for $15 and it was absolutely incredible. The guys didn't take tips because they were the owners and the queue was insane, my wife was speaking to one of the owners in Spanish for a bit and she said that they make around 500 tacos every day, 1000 on event days. If I paid $15 for four tacos and they're open 4 days per week this husband and wife couple were making six figures between them after overheads. It's little wonder they don't bother with tips.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,572
    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I lost too much on 2024 to have any stakes available for 2028!

    Did you pile on Harris PV ?
    Yeah. That was where I totally fucked it.
    in a lot of ways that was an obvious bet - from here we simply didn't see how unpopular Harris was...
    She was ahead in almost all the final polls and models in the PV, so I thought 1.4-1.5 value, and I thought Trump never would given how polarising he was and the fact no Republican had done it for 20 years.

    A salutatory lesson.
    I think treating it as a learning experience is the only way to handle it. You fucked up. Well, we all do it at some point. Yours was survivable (I assume you didn't lose the house, wife and kids) so don't beat yourself up about it. Wash your face, brush your teeth, comb your hair and remember there's always a next time and don't make the same mistake twice. Good luck for next time, yes?
    It's also the nature of the mistake. I still think Harris was value at 4/1 at about 2.30am, considering that the other swing states might not follow the pattern from the Georgia etc. I was wrong, but am relaxed about it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    edited November 7

    Interesting to hear of US costs for ordinary people given their overall economic growth has eclipsed that of the largest European nations over the last decade or so.

    Its because that growth has really been tilted towards certain sectors e.g. Nvidia have been going gangbusters, they now have more than a third of employees have a net worth of more than $20 million, 76% of them are millionaires....

    7 companies are responsible the vast bulk of increase in the stock market value.
    So what happens next with all that money on the sidelines ?

    Do they pile in and the ride continues ?

    My SIPPs are largely based on US and World indexes. I added to these prior to the election.
  • Interesting to hear of US costs for ordinary people given their overall economic growth has eclipsed that of the largest European nations over the last decade or so.

    I suspect that the benefits of that economic growth have been very skewed very much to the advantage of the richer Americans. But it's hard to see how Trump's policies are likely to do anything other than exacerbate this state of affairs.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,030
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Following poll herding we’re now getting PB herding on how uniquely terrible Harris was as a candidate.

    Just a couple days too late lads.

    Some PBers did point six months ago that the top five in the Dem candidate betting - Biden, Harris, Hillary, Michelle, Newsom - were all unelectable.
    Biden clearly wasn't pre dementia given his win in 2020, Michelle may also have won this year who knows
    Michelle Obama has no experience in, or apparent interest in elective political office, for herself.

    What the Democrats need is a seasoned Governor, with deep political experience, who can build a coalition across the party. And combine it with a coalition *outside the party*.

    See Bill Clinton for a master class in this.
    That could easily be someone like Shapiro by 2028.

    I don't know what to make of Buttigieg's chances.
    He has absolutely remarkable skills as a political communicator - see his attitude to going on Fox, and regularly destroying them in argument, while coming across as courteous at the same time.

    But what's he going to do now ? Run for a governorship himself ?
    Is there a possible Senate seat in 2026 ?
    Another possibility is Andy Beshear. Governor of Kentucky - a deep red state - and only 46.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Tipping is the #1 biggest reason putting me off going to America. It's not just the expense, it's the social awkwardness.
    Tell me how much the thing costs and charge me it. If the thing is good I will patronise again, if it is disappointing I will go somewhere else next time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    She recommends food trucks in LA whenever we've been because there's much less pressure to tip and the prices are still reasonable. She took us to a truck last summer where you could get 4 birria tacos, a mexican soft drink and a churro for $15 and it was absolutely incredible. The guys didn't take tips because they were the owners and the queue was insane, my wife was speaking to one of the owners in Spanish for a bit and she said that they make around 500 tacos every day, 1000 on event days. If I paid $15 for four tacos and they're open 4 days per week this husband and wife couple were making six figures between them after overheads. It's little wonder they don't bother with tips.
    This is a great YouTube channel....

    The Territorial Business of Tacos
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpW6PCH8T3M
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Tipping is the #1 biggest reason putting me off going to America. It's not just the expense, it's the social awkwardness.
    Tell me how much the thing costs and charge me it. If the thing is good I will patronise again, if it is disappointing I will go somewhere else next time.
    American's aren't shy about telling you if you didn't tip the "right" amount....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7
    Taz said:

    Interesting to hear of US costs for ordinary people given their overall economic growth has eclipsed that of the largest European nations over the last decade or so.

    Its because that growth has really been tilted towards certain sectors e.g. Nvidia have been going gangbusters, they now have more than a third of employees have a net worth of more than $20 million, 76% of them are millionaires....

    7 companies are responsible the vast bulk of increase in the stock market value.
    So what happens next with all that money on the sidelines ?

    Do they pile in and the ride continues ?

    My SIPPs are largely based on US and World indexes. I added to these prior to the election.
    In previous experience is anything to go by, they pile that money into venture capital and new tech cycles begin. The flywheel keeps turning.

    It is the criticism of here. People and capital are much more risk averse. They build a business, they cash out quite early to an overseas corporation, and they lock up a big chunk of their money.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,402
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    She recommends food trucks in LA whenever we've been because there's much less pressure to tip and the prices are still reasonable. She took us to a truck last summer where you could get 4 birria tacos, a mexican soft drink and a churro for $15 and it was absolutely incredible. The guys didn't take tips because they were the owners and the queue was insane, my wife was speaking to one of the owners in Spanish for a bit and she said that they make around 500 tacos every day, 1000 on event days. If I paid $15 for four tacos and they're open 4 days per week this husband and wife couple were making six figures between them after overheads. It's little wonder they don't bother with tips.
    The last time we went to Australia and New Zealand they were virtually tip-free. Is that still the case?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,996
    You could, sometimes, buy eggs at 99 cents a dozen here in the Seattle area few years ago -- on special sales. Usually, they were $1.99. (The lowest price I have seen recently is $2.99.)

    I haven't seen a formal study but two causes for the price increase come to mind: avian flu, and rules requiring better treatment of the hens. Almost all eggs in this area are now sold as "cage free" or even as "free range".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Given the deal he got from LIV to join their tour, I don't think he has to worry.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,771
    Dopermean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I lost too much on 2024 to have any stakes available for 2028!

    Did you pile on Harris PV ?
    Yeah. That was where I totally fucked it.
    The PV market was out of sync with the other markets, despite the historical Dem margin on PV vs EC result.
    Trump at 4 could have been very profitable for those who were backing Trump on the other markets
    As here, there are often so many markets that are minor variations on a theme that get out of sync so that the small player can find value before the pro's move in and arb them back into uniformity. A recent example from this side of the pond might be Betfair's two markets on the date the Prime Minister would be replaced, one in years, one in quarters iirc.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    Eabhal said:

    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I lost too much on 2024 to have any stakes available for 2028!

    Did you pile on Harris PV ?
    Yeah. That was where I totally fucked it.
    in a lot of ways that was an obvious bet - from here we simply didn't see how unpopular Harris was...
    She was ahead in almost all the final polls and models in the PV, so I thought 1.4-1.5 value, and I thought Trump never would given how polarising he was and the fact no Republican had done it for 20 years.

    A salutatory lesson.
    I think treating it as a learning experience is the only way to handle it. You fucked up. Well, we all do it at some point. Yours was survivable (I assume you didn't lose the house, wife and kids) so don't beat yourself up about it. Wash your face, brush your teeth, comb your hair and remember there's always a next time and don't make the same mistake twice. Good luck for next time, yes?
    It's also the nature of the mistake. I still think Harris was value at 4/1 at about 2.30am, considering that the other swing states might not follow the pattern from the Georgia etc. I was wrong, but am relaxed about it.
    Same here. I felt it was value and punted a tenner on her at 11/2 around the same time,

    I had been mugged off by the commentary that Trump was doing well in the Sunbelt and she was outperforming in the Rust Belt and they were to come.

    I also had money on her at 5/4

    So my profit on Kemi winning the Tory leadership was with me a couple of days !!!!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,034
    edited November 7

    MattW said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    The Sainsbury's numbers sound like normal special interest group squealing.

    See farmers and IHT, or well off pensioners spending £1000-2000 a year looking after their dogs who are suddenly going to starve this afternoon because they have lost £150 or £300 in heating bill benefit.

    Sainsbury's claim the cost will be £140 million. Their turnover is £36 billion per annum.

    So the extra cost is 0.38% of turnover. For a single hit that is unlikely to have much more on top, that does not seem to be an existential threat.
    Last ten years of profits for Sainsburys:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/386446/sainsburys-profits-united-kingdom-uk/

    If the cost is £140 million its a number greater than their post tax profits.
    It's a pretax cost, of course.

    It sounds as if Sainsbury need to raise their game. As they put it at the time:

    In the year ending March 2023, Sainsbury's reported a profit before tax of £327 million, down from £854 million in the previous year. The company attributed the fall in profit to spending more than £560 million on keeping prices low.
    However, Sainsbury's is expected to see strong profit growth in the 2023/24 financial year. The company is forecasting retail underlying profits of £1.01bn-£1.06bn, which is a 5%-10% increase from the previous year.


    https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/city-snapshot-sainsburys-forecasts-profits-of-1bn-in-2024-on-strong-grocery-growth/690669.article

    Full article: https://archive.ph/wip/ledqZ
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,773
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Well I am glad that is not just me. It is bizarre now that you pay by card then get a paper slip with various tip options on it and then write in what you are paying and sign, so even though you have done an electronic payment in theory you are back to filling in and signing slips of paper and I really didn't know what I should be giving even though we had checked much of it in advance and the expected tip is so large it really impacts the expected cost.

    A couple of places we stayed were quite smart and in one it was 'no tips', but even that caused confusion in the restaurant as people tried to tip and some of the staff were new so were confused as what to do. In the other which gave no indication re tips I tried to tip the guy who parked the car and brought our bags to the room and he refused the tip.
  • .

    algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
    We know restrictive abortion laws increase maternal mortality from various past studies, e.g. Farin et al. (2024, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20220208 ), and indeed also on infant mortality, e.g. Burdick et al. (2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379723004087 ).

    Govern et al. (2024; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1729 ) in the BMJ summarise the current US situation, although teasing out the effect of COVID-19 and changes in the law are complicated.

    There are plenty of individual cases being reported regularly, e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amber-thurman-delayed-abortion-georgia/ , https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala , https://msmagazine.com/2024/11/04/women-die-abortion-ban-elections-vote/
    Without commenting on the rights and wrongs of the abortion law for that first case, that article jumps to a lot of conclusions about what was not an abortion but possibly poorer care following an abortion taken in a nine week pregnancy with a pill.
    Not really what is claimed.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Nice to see you've changed that avatar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,055
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    The Sainsbury's numbers sound like normal special interest group squealing.

    See farmers and IHT, or well off pensioners spending £1000-2000 a year looking after their dogs who are suddenly going to starve this afternoon because they have lost £150 or £300 in heating bill benefit.

    Sainsbury's claim the cost will be £140 million. Their turnover is £36 billion per annum.

    So the extra cost is 0.38% of turnover. For a single hit that is unlikely to have much more on top, that does not seem to be an existential threat.
    Last ten years of profits for Sainsburys:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/386446/sainsburys-profits-united-kingdom-uk/

    If the cost is £140 million its a number greater than their post tax profits.
    It's a pretax cost, of course.

    It sounds as if Sainsbury need to raise their game. As they put it at the time:

    In the year ending March 2023, Sainsbury's reported a profit before tax of £327 million, down from £854 million in the previous year. The company attributed the fall in profit to spending more than £560 million on keeping prices low.
    However, Sainsbury's is expected to see strong profit growth in the 2023/24 financial year. The company is forecasting retail underlying profits of £1.01bn-£1.06bn, which is a 5%-10% increase from the previous year.


    https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/city-snapshot-sainsburys-forecasts-profits-of-1bn-in-2024-on-strong-grocery-growth/690669.article
    They've already raised their game by "Spending £560 million on keep[ing prices low" AKA reducing profit to compete.

    The idea that there is much fat in the UK supermarket chains is an interesting one.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Tipping is the #1 biggest reason putting me off going to America. It's not just the expense, it's the social awkwardness.
    Tell me how much the thing costs and charge me it. If the thing is good I will patronise again, if it is disappointing I will go somewhere else next time.
    When I was last over, when paying by card in Starbucks you have to press a button giving tip amount (with a no tip option) - I actually felt bad pressing 'no tip' even though it was a takeaway coffee in a polystyrene cup from a walk-up counter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Given the deal he got from LIV to join their tour, I don't think he has to worry.
    Oh he's ok for $$$ alright. TBH many US golfers will be Trumpers but it was disappointing to see him up there flaunting it. He is, however, along with being a terrific box office player, a bit of a dick, so it kind of figures.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Nice to see you've changed that avatar.
    Where are the beans ??!!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Given the deal he got from LIV to join their tour, I don't think he has to worry.
    Oh he's ok for $$$ alright. TBH many US golfers will be Trumpers but it was disappointing to see him up there flaunting it. He is, however, along with being a terrific box office player, a bit of a dick, so it kind of figures.
    Never meet your heroes, they always never come up to your expectations of them.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,387
    edited November 7
    It's interesting that one of the main reason's for Trump's victory has apparently been a sharp rise in food prices. This, in turn, is due at least partly to the reduction in the amount of grain exported from Ukraine. So, in way, Putin has indeed engineered Trump's election.
  • .

    algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
    We know restrictive abortion laws increase maternal mortality from various past studies, e.g. Farin et al. (2024, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20220208 ), and indeed also on infant mortality, e.g. Burdick et al. (2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379723004087 ).

    Govern et al. (2024; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1729 ) in the BMJ summarise the current US situation, although teasing out the effect of COVID-19 and changes in the law are complicated.

    There are plenty of individual cases being reported regularly, e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amber-thurman-delayed-abortion-georgia/ , https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala , https://msmagazine.com/2024/11/04/women-die-abortion-ban-elections-vote/
    again, reading the other links, they dont really claim what you say they do.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7
    Starmer can't catch a break...
    https://www.tiktok.com/@itvpolitics/video/7434506275997732129

    Apparently he was late and so started without him.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,996
    If you would like to see actual food prices in the US, here's a current ad: https://www.fredmeyer.com/weeklyad/weeklyad
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Given the deal he got from LIV to join their tour, I don't think he has to worry.
    Oh he's ok for $$$ alright. TBH many US golfers will be Trumpers but it was disappointing to see him up there flaunting it. He is, however, along with being a terrific box office player, a bit of a dick, so it kind of figures.
    Well he is very American, in the sense of he isn't shy of thinking he is the best and telling everybody who will listen.....no idea why he likes Trump.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,034
    edited November 7

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    The Sainsbury's numbers sound like normal special interest group squealing.

    See farmers and IHT, or well off pensioners spending £1000-2000 a year looking after their dogs who are suddenly going to starve this afternoon because they have lost £150 or £300 in heating bill benefit.

    Sainsbury's claim the cost will be £140 million. Their turnover is £36 billion per annum.

    So the extra cost is 0.38% of turnover. For a single hit that is unlikely to have much more on top, that does not seem to be an existential threat.
    Last ten years of profits for Sainsburys:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/386446/sainsburys-profits-united-kingdom-uk/

    If the cost is £140 million its a number greater than their post tax profits.
    It's a pretax cost, of course.

    It sounds as if Sainsbury need to raise their game. As they put it at the time:

    In the year ending March 2023, Sainsbury's reported a profit before tax of £327 million, down from £854 million in the previous year. The company attributed the fall in profit to spending more than £560 million on keeping prices low.
    However, Sainsbury's is expected to see strong profit growth in the 2023/24 financial year. The company is forecasting retail underlying profits of £1.01bn-£1.06bn, which is a 5%-10% increase from the previous year.


    https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/city-snapshot-sainsburys-forecasts-profits-of-1bn-in-2024-on-strong-grocery-growth/690669.article
    They've already raised their game by "Spending £560 million on keep[ing prices low" AKA reducing profit to compete.

    The idea that there is much fat in the UK supermarket chains is an interesting one.
    Throwing money at cutting the number on the label is like a catalytic converter on a car - a tailpipe solution.

    They perhaps need to look under the hood.

    I'm sure they will, and the market will give them their answer as to whether it was effective.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,703
    Shades of Boris and Rishi between Trump and Vance already?

    'The designs have already been set into motion. They were there before but now it’s go time. There's even a code language. The second in charge and his funder are preparing to take out the winner and have the second in charge replace him. It has to be a health issue, which makes the plot all the darker. Es tu?'
    https://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2024/11/blind-item-7_6.html
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,034

    If you would like to see actual food prices in the US, here's a current ad: https://www.fredmeyer.com/weeklyad/weeklyad

    It will be interesting to see what Mr Trump's ideas are for reducing food prices, given that he will (I assume) not be doing the Biden programme.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Nice to see you've changed that avatar.
    I said it was just for the election and I always keep my promises. It's why I'm so trusted.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,971

    .

    algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
    We know restrictive abortion laws increase maternal mortality from various past studies, e.g. Farin et al. (2024, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20220208 ), and indeed also on infant mortality, e.g. Burdick et al. (2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379723004087 ).

    Govern et al. (2024; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1729 ) in the BMJ summarise the current US situation, although teasing out the effect of COVID-19 and changes in the law are complicated.

    There are plenty of individual cases being reported regularly, e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amber-thurman-delayed-abortion-georgia/ , https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala , https://msmagazine.com/2024/11/04/women-die-abortion-ban-elections-vote/
    Without commenting on the rights and wrongs of the abortion law for that first case, that article jumps to a lot of conclusions about what was not an abortion but possibly poorer care following an abortion taken in a nine week pregnancy with a pill.
    Not really what is claimed.
    I cited 3 academic articles and 3 news pieces, so I’m unclear which one you are critiquing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081
    Stocky said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Nice to see you've changed that avatar.
    Where are the beans ??!!
    They'll be back but I'm not exactly full of them atm.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,235
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Well I am glad that is not just me. It is bizarre now that you pay by card then get a paper slip with various tip options on it and then write in what you are paying and sign, so even though you have done an electronic payment in theory you are back to filling in and signing slips of paper and I really didn't know what I should be giving even though we had checked much of it in advance and the expected tip is so large it really impacts the expected cost.

    A couple of places we stayed were quite smart and in one it was 'no tips', but even that caused confusion in the restaurant as people tried to tip and some of the staff were new so were confused as what to do. In the other which gave no indication re tips I tried to tip the guy who parked the car and brought our bags to the room and he refused the tip.
    In Germany - where I think the culture just used to be to round up to a convenient round number - you are now presented with a credit card machine suggesting different percentages of Trinkgeld
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,055
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Afternoon all. Or it may well be by the time this gets actually read.

    Many years ago I ran a small group of pharmacies, and I've been thinking idly and now and again about the NI rise.
    I really don't believe that all the panic that the likes of Sainsbury's boss are demonstrating is justified. Sure it's a nuisance, but it's not crippling, surely.
    Depends on your profit margins, as it will come straight off the bottom line. I don't imagine this will effect Sainsbury's much as they will just screw their suppliers more as they, and all supermarkets, do. It is other businesses that will be hit hard
    The Sainsbury's numbers sound like normal special interest group squealing.

    See farmers and IHT, or well off pensioners spending £1000-2000 a year looking after their dogs who are suddenly going to starve this afternoon because they have lost £150 or £300 in heating bill benefit.

    Sainsbury's claim the cost will be £140 million. Their turnover is £36 billion per annum.

    So the extra cost is 0.38% of turnover. For a single hit that is unlikely to have much more on top, that does not seem to be an existential threat.
    Last ten years of profits for Sainsburys:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/386446/sainsburys-profits-united-kingdom-uk/

    If the cost is £140 million its a number greater than their post tax profits.
    It's a pretax cost, of course.

    It sounds as if Sainsbury need to raise their game. As they put it at the time:

    In the year ending March 2023, Sainsbury's reported a profit before tax of £327 million, down from £854 million in the previous year. The company attributed the fall in profit to spending more than £560 million on keeping prices low.
    However, Sainsbury's is expected to see strong profit growth in the 2023/24 financial year. The company is forecasting retail underlying profits of £1.01bn-£1.06bn, which is a 5%-10% increase from the previous year.


    https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/city-snapshot-sainsburys-forecasts-profits-of-1bn-in-2024-on-strong-grocery-growth/690669.article
    They've already raised their game by "Spending £560 million on keep[ing prices low" AKA reducing profit to compete.

    The idea that there is much fat in the UK supermarket chains is an interesting one.
    Throwing money at cutting the number on the label is like a catalytic converter on a car - a tailpipe solution.

    They perhaps need to look under the hood.

    I'm sure they will, and the market will give them their answer.
    All the big supermarkets are competing fiercely on price. They run the kind of process improvement stuff I've talked about, up thread, continuously. Reducing costs has been a goal for *generations*.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485

    .

    algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
    We know restrictive abortion laws increase maternal mortality from various past studies, e.g. Farin et al. (2024, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20220208 ), and indeed also on infant mortality, e.g. Burdick et al. (2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379723004087 ).

    Govern et al. (2024; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1729 ) in the BMJ summarise the current US situation, although teasing out the effect of COVID-19 and changes in the law are complicated.

    There are plenty of individual cases being reported regularly, e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amber-thurman-delayed-abortion-georgia/ , https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala , https://msmagazine.com/2024/11/04/women-die-abortion-ban-elections-vote/
    Without commenting on the rights and wrongs of the abortion law for that first case, that article jumps to a lot of conclusions about what was not an abortion but possibly poorer care following an abortion taken in a nine week pregnancy with a pill.
    Not really what is claimed.
    I'm genuinely surprised that medics don't give life-saving help and to hell with the risk of a jury convicting them.

    It probably ends up being down to them having no insurance though...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,703
    edited November 7

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "On 6 November, Olaf Scholz fired Christian Lindner as finance minister. The decision marks the formal end of the three-party coalition – between the Social Democrats (SDP), Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP), the latter of which Lindner leads. Hr was fired after refusing to accept Scholz’s order to declare a state of fiscal emergency that would allow the government to bypass the rules of the debt brake, which limits the government’s ability to borrow money. Scholz went on national TV to declare that he wants to set aside money to support Ukraine, and for an increase in defence spending that has now become necessary after the victory of Trump. He also said he would not accept a trade-off of taking funds earmarked for social policies. This will be the theme of the election campaign – and the new dividing line in German politics."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2024/11/collapse-german-government-finance-minister

    Looks like Germany is returning to traditional dividing lines with the FDP joining the CDU in opposition and the SDP staying in power for now with the Greens.

    At the moment the AfD share though means neither block likely gets a majority at the next Federal election, so the likeliest outcome is another CDU and SPD grand coalition again as was the case from 2005-2009 and 2009-2021
    The SPD would surely be extremely reluctant to join another grand coalition as the junior partner. It could be the death of them. Is a CDU/CSU coalition with the AfD still out of the question?
    Yes, though more likely with Merz than it was with Merkel.

    As Germany has PR its less likely to damage the SPD with further leakage to the Greens and Linke than it would be with FPTP
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,971

    .

    algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
    We know restrictive abortion laws increase maternal mortality from various past studies, e.g. Farin et al. (2024, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20220208 ), and indeed also on infant mortality, e.g. Burdick et al. (2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379723004087 ).

    Govern et al. (2024; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1729 ) in the BMJ summarise the current US situation, although teasing out the effect of COVID-19 and changes in the law are complicated.

    There are plenty of individual cases being reported regularly, e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amber-thurman-delayed-abortion-georgia/ , https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala , https://msmagazine.com/2024/11/04/women-die-abortion-ban-elections-vote/
    again, reading the other links, they dont really claim what you say they do.
    These are academic papers in good journals that have been through peer review. If you want to critique them, might I suggest you need to be a little bit more detailed in your critique. Or show me different articles coming to the opposite conclusion.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    Come on, Nevada and Arizona! Slackers!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Nice to see you've changed that avatar.
    Where are the beans ??!!
    They'll be back but I'm not exactly full of them atm.
    Hold your nose for four years in the knowledge that he can never run again. If he'd lost you would have always have been worried that he might.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:
    Bryson Dechambeau, the well-known golf player, was part of Trump's victory do.
    May he get the yips and never win another tournament.
    Given the deal he got from LIV to join their tour, I don't think he has to worry.
    Oh he's ok for $$$ alright. TBH many US golfers will be Trumpers but it was disappointing to see him up there flaunting it. He is, however, along with being a terrific box office player, a bit of a dick, so it kind of figures.
    Never meet your heroes, they always never come up to your expectations of them.
    Thankfully he isn't. Very watchable player but not a fav of mine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    HYUFD said:

    Shades of Boris and Rishi between Trump and Vance already?

    'The designs have already been set into motion. They were there before but now it’s go time. There's even a code language. The second in charge and his funder are preparing to take out the winner and have the second in charge replace him. It has to be a health issue, which makes the plot all the darker. Es tu?'
    https://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2024/11/blind-item-7_6.html

    Shocked? Not in the very slightest.

    I dd wonder if Trump appearing so doolally in the final months was part of a stategy to keep out of jail if he lost the election. That it gives Vance the means to put the skids under Trump using the 25th Amendment was a handy adjunct to their plan.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Tipping is the #1 biggest reason putting me off going to America. It's not just the expense, it's the social awkwardness.
    Tell me how much the thing costs and charge me it. If the thing is good I will patronise again, if it is disappointing I will go somewhere else next time.
    The truly mad thing is that Americans feel this anxiety AS WELL

    It’s not one of those things you finally get used to. It drives Americans nuts. Sit with a bunch of Americans and bring up tipping and they go crazy with the angst and annoyance
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485

    The Guardian has just posted that "Mike Amesbury, the MP suspended by Labour pending an investigation, has been charged with assault after an incident following a night out."According to Cheshire Police.

    The first by-election of this Parliament?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,758
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For anyone who missed it, the failure of Germany's Coalition means that there's to be a confidence vote early next year: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7v3r046pzzo

    It seems quite slow...? Why not have a confidence vote this month?
    European governments don't like to rush their collapses.
    Indeed, can’t they be done with him now and get someone else in before Christmas? Preferably someone who cares about security.
    It is a genuine concern that the richest and most populous country in western Europe is effectively going to be leaderless over the entire interregnum between now and the coronation of Trump the first.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,971

    .

    algarkirk said:

    On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.

    While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.

    One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).

    The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
    Do you have a source for that last claim?
    We know restrictive abortion laws increase maternal mortality from various past studies, e.g. Farin et al. (2024, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20220208 ), and indeed also on infant mortality, e.g. Burdick et al. (2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749379723004087 ).

    Govern et al. (2024; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.q1729 ) in the BMJ summarise the current US situation, although teasing out the effect of COVID-19 and changes in the law are complicated.

    There are plenty of individual cases being reported regularly, e.g. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amber-thurman-delayed-abortion-georgia/ , https://www.propublica.org/article/nevaeh-crain-death-texas-abortion-ban-emtala , https://msmagazine.com/2024/11/04/women-die-abortion-ban-elections-vote/
    Without commenting on the rights and wrongs of the abortion law for that first case, that article jumps to a lot of conclusions about what was not an abortion but possibly poorer care following an abortion taken in a nine week pregnancy with a pill.
    Not really what is claimed.
    I'm genuinely surprised that medics don't give life-saving help and to hell with the risk of a jury convicting them.

    It probably ends up being down to them having no insurance though...
    It’s not all about immediate crisis situations. It can be about someone has a problem, but isn’t imminently at risk, so you put off doing something because of the legal environment. But those delays increase the risks.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,187

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "On 6 November, Olaf Scholz fired Christian Lindner as finance minister. The decision marks the formal end of the three-party coalition – between the Social Democrats (SDP), Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP), the latter of which Lindner leads. Hr was fired after refusing to accept Scholz’s order to declare a state of fiscal emergency that would allow the government to bypass the rules of the debt brake, which limits the government’s ability to borrow money. Scholz went on national TV to declare that he wants to set aside money to support Ukraine, and for an increase in defence spending that has now become necessary after the victory of Trump. He also said he would not accept a trade-off of taking funds earmarked for social policies. This will be the theme of the election campaign – and the new dividing line in German politics."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2024/11/collapse-german-government-finance-minister

    Looks like Germany is returning to traditional dividing lines with the FDP joining the CDU in opposition and the SDP staying in power for now with the Greens.

    At the moment the AfD share though means neither block likely gets a majority at the next Federal election, so the likeliest outcome is another CDU and SPD grand coalition again as was the case from 2005-2009 and 2009-2021
    The SPD would surely be extremely reluctant to join another grand coalition as the junior partner. It could be the death of them. Is a CDU/CSU coalition with the AfD still out of the question?
    Zero chance of the CDU/CSU having anything at all to do with the AfD in this or the next parliament. If the SPD don't want (or maybe even if they do), CDU/CSU + Greens would be an alternative coalition - if they had the numbers. If Union + Greens isn't enough for a majority the SPD would (I'd assume) go into another grand coalition whether they want to or not.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193

    Pulpstar said:

    Just put £1 at 207-1 on Harris popular vote ;)

    So far:

    Trump 72,641,564
    Harris 67,957,895

    :innocent:
    Sunil,

    Where are you getting live PV numbers from?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    With Trump winning, does this mean we have to take Prince Harry back?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Well I am glad that is not just me. It is bizarre now that you pay by card then get a paper slip with various tip options on it and then write in what you are paying and sign, so even though you have done an electronic payment in theory you are back to filling in and signing slips of paper and I really didn't know what I should be giving even though we had checked much of it in advance and the expected tip is so large it really impacts the expected cost.

    A couple of places we stayed were quite smart and in one it was 'no tips', but even that caused confusion in the restaurant as people tried to tip and some of the staff were new so were confused as what to do. In the other which gave no indication re tips I tried to tip the guy who parked the car and brought our bags to the room and he refused the tip.
    Yep. Tipping is now so out of hand it impacts your holiday in a decidedly negative way

    It also - pro insider “tip” here - makes it hard for US travel boards to entice foreign journalists unless they can guarantee absolutely everything is paid for beforehand

    A lot of travel journalists aren’t rich. If they know that - despite getting free meals and hotels - they’re still gonna be shelling out $100 a day in tips then they don’t want to come. Which is bad for US Tourism Inc
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,848

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,353

    Following poll herding we’re now getting PB herding on how uniquely terrible Harris was as a candidate.

    Just a couple days too late lads.

    We couldn't have anyone saying it before - it would have been disastrous for PB morale.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    HYUFD said:

    Shades of Boris and Rishi between Trump and Vance already?

    'The designs have already been set into motion. They were there before but now it’s go time. There's even a code language. The second in charge and his funder are preparing to take out the winner and have the second in charge replace him. It has to be a health issue, which makes the plot all the darker. Es tu?'
    https://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2024/11/blind-item-7_6.html

    I used to read CDAN many years ago. Great fun but lots of wild speculation and wide of the mark more often than not.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,187
    Stocky said:

    Can someone please confirm that a swing of approx 1% in just three key states would have won Harris the election and the three states were Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Just checking for a friend who doesn't believe me.

    Yes, I make PA the tipping point state which Trump is 1.9% ahead with 98% counted according to AP
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
    A shop. So you buy a pair of shoes or some groceries and they expect a tip ? What about self service. Do you tip then ?

    You've been over in the US recently. Is it getting worse ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
    Tipping on self service checkout machines....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,936
    .
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    viewcode said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I lost too much on 2024 to have any stakes available for 2028!

    Did you pile on Harris PV ?
    Yeah. That was where I totally fucked it.
    in a lot of ways that was an obvious bet - from here we simply didn't see how unpopular Harris was...
    She was ahead in almost all the final polls and models in the PV, so I thought 1.4-1.5 value, and I thought Trump never would given how polarising he was and the fact no Republican had done it for 20 years.

    A salutatory lesson.
    I think treating it as a learning experience is the only way to handle it. You fucked up. Well, we all do it at some point. Yours was survivable (I assume you didn't lose the house, wife and kids) so don't beat yourself up about it. Wash your face, brush your teeth, comb your hair and remember there's always a next time and don't make the same mistake twice. Good luck for next time, yes?
    It's also the nature of the mistake. I still think Harris was value at 4/1 at about 2.30am, considering that the other swing states might not follow the pattern from the Georgia etc. I was wrong, but am relaxed about it.
    Same here. I felt it was value and punted a tenner on her at 11/2 around the same time,

    I had been mugged off by the commentary that Trump was doing well in the Sunbelt and she was outperforming in the Rust Belt and they were to come.

    I also had money on her at 5/4

    So my profit on Kemi winning the Tory leadership was with me a couple of days !!!!
    I fell asleep sometime between 1 and 2am, and woke up to discover I'd turned a four figure profit into about £100.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,325
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Well I am glad that is not just me. It is bizarre now that you pay by card then get a paper slip with various tip options on it and then write in what you are paying and sign, so even though you have done an electronic payment in theory you are back to filling in and signing slips of paper and I really didn't know what I should be giving even though we had checked much of it in advance and the expected tip is so large it really impacts the expected cost.

    A couple of places we stayed were quite smart and in one it was 'no tips', but even that caused confusion in the restaurant as people tried to tip and some of the staff were new so were confused as what to do. In the other which gave no indication re tips I tried to tip the guy who parked the car and brought our bags to the room and he refused the tip.
    Yep. Tipping is now so out of hand it impacts your holiday in a decidedly negative way

    It also - pro insider “tip” here - makes it hard for US travel boards to entice foreign journalists unless they can guarantee absolutely everything is paid for beforehand

    A lot of travel journalists aren’t rich. If they know that - despite getting free meals and hotels - they’re still gonna be shelling out $100 a day in tips then they don’t want to come. Which is bad for US Tourism Inc
    Wouldn't they be able to claim them as an expense ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
    A shop. So you buy a pair of shoes or some groceries and they expect a tip ? What about self service. Do you tip then ?

    You've been over in the US recently. Is it getting worse ?
    Much much worse post COVID.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,298
    Well, Avanti have just given me a delay-repay refund of £202.40, so that offsets 25% of my Trump loss at least!

    I need to book a few more tickets and put some shopping trolleys on the line, or something.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    edited November 7

    Following poll herding we’re now getting PB herding on how uniquely terrible Harris was as a candidate.

    Just a couple days too late lads.

    We couldn't have anyone saying it before - it would have been disastrous for PB morale.
    Plus she was brilliant up until Trump hit 270.

    Like the interview in the US:

    Harris (as candidate, after Biden stepped down): There is nothing wrong with Joe Biden he's absolutely 100%
    Interviewer: Then why are you here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
    A shop. So you buy a pair of shoes or some groceries and they expect a tip ? What about self service. Do you tip then ?

    You've been over in the US recently. Is it getting worse ?
    Much much worse post COVID.
    Yes. Far worse
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I adore travel (obviously). But American tipping culture is now so bad I actively don’t want to go to America unless all my meals are “sorted; Sir” (as often happens in my profession)

    It’s not just the absurd costs it is the extra layer of constant anxiety. Did I tip enough? Can I tip with my card? Should I tip the guy in the corner who does nothing at all, maybe he does something?

    I sometimes wonder if I should tip the President every day I am there

    For contrast take Japan. There is zero tipping. Its blissful. Plus nearly all the food is exquisite - and healthy - and you can eat a superb dinner including beer or sake for £15-20
    Well I am glad that is not just me. It is bizarre now that you pay by card then get a paper slip with various tip options on it and then write in what you are paying and sign, so even though you have done an electronic payment in theory you are back to filling in and signing slips of paper and I really didn't know what I should be giving even though we had checked much of it in advance and the expected tip is so large it really impacts the expected cost.

    A couple of places we stayed were quite smart and in one it was 'no tips', but even that caused confusion in the restaurant as people tried to tip and some of the staff were new so were confused as what to do. In the other which gave no indication re tips I tried to tip the guy who parked the car and brought our bags to the room and he refused the tip.
    Yep. Tipping is now so out of hand it impacts your holiday in a decidedly negative way

    It also - pro insider “tip” here - makes it hard for US travel boards to entice foreign journalists unless they can guarantee absolutely everything is paid for beforehand

    A lot of travel journalists aren’t rich. If they know that - despite getting free meals and hotels - they’re still gonna be shelling out $100 a day in tips then they don’t want to come. Which is bad for US Tourism Inc
    Wouldn't they be able to claim them as an expense ?
    No

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
    Tipping on self service checkout machines....
    Which is a real thing. And I’ve heard Americans defend it - “well someone had to get the produce from the warehouse to the store so you can self checkout”

    THEN PAY THEM A FUCKING DECENT WAGE
    It used to bad, basically if you received a service directly from a human, now its literally any service.
  • Starmer can't catch a break...
    https://www.tiktok.com/@itvpolitics/video/7434506275997732129

    Apparently he was late and so started without him.

    He got a huge break in July. The pay back on that will be heavy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,402
    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
    A shop. So you buy a pair of shoes or some groceries and they expect a tip ? What about self service. Do you tip then ?

    You've been over in the US recently. Is it getting worse ?
    As I posted upthread, for some years I was involved with a small group of pharmacies. During that time one, and one only, member of staff was tipped, and that was after something exceptional.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7
    Another thing that I know a lot of Americans are complaining about. Ticket prices for everything. With COVID shut downs, plus inflation, plus monopoly of LiveNation, ticket prices are insane in the US. And then the cost of everything at the venue, plus tip....

    People were moaning about £300 for Oasis here, I think most Americans would be going, wow, that's cheap.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited November 7
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    'It's simple, really' - why Latinos flocked to Trump's working-class coalition

    The most common factor, however, was the economy - specifically, inflation. "Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents," Mr Negron added

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

    I would be surprised if a dozen eggs was 99c in 2020, but telling people stock market is at all time high and GDP is growing is a tricky sell when people are seeing massive food inflation.

    I've seen multiple stories about people in the US eating out less often because they can't afford to do so.

    And this is the US where eating out is for many people something they used to do x times a week...
    Yes. I have mentioned this. US culture is you grab food on the go for several meals of the day and eat out a lot more than here.

    Mrs U was in the US last month and came back going WTF at cost of eating out, even cheapo chains. Where as it used to be too cheap if anything. And the tipping on top. 20% minimum.

    Taking your kids to McDonalds and it costing $50...that is proper shock.

    Worth remember, what did Trump as a stunt, he read out the Cheesecake Factory Menu and the price increases. For those that don't know, The Cheesecake Factory is what lower and middle class Americans think as the place to go for a nice special occasion meal. Everybody knows that chain and it is very popular.
    One of my American friends was saying that fast food has become so expensive in LA that it's now better to get a takeaway from casual dining restaurants because the price difference is so small now.

    She's moving to London in March and staying with us for a few weeks while she gets her own place sorted out but she was saying one of the things she's looking forwards to most is not having to pay 25-30% tips.
    I need to go to the US for an extended period next year, currently looking at accommodation options and feeling ill just looking at those costs...let alone the constant tipping that is totally out of control now (despite minimum wage levels rises significantly in lots of states).
    The most irritating aren't so much the restaurant servers, where you're expecting it, but the shops and ticket counters and other such purchases where you get offered a tip choice, which is increasingly common.
    Tipping on self service checkout machines....
    Which is a real thing. And I’ve heard Americans defend it - “well someone had to get the produce from the warehouse to the store so you can self checkout”

    THEN PAY THEM A FUCKING DECENT WAGE
    The thing is in quite a few states now the minimum wage is actually pretty high, they have basically doubled it in many West coast states.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,578
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.

    Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only.

    'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
    Ivanka
    Her values are very different from her dad's.
    You can read about them here.
    https://x.com/IvankaTrump/status/1853554645597327774
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