We'll see what happens in European Commission vs Musk.
He's of the view that he and his businesses are above the law. That might be doable in the USA for very rich people, and the UK authorities have often bent over for the US Government in practice, but I'm not sure that that will fly with the EC.
Musk has already cut Twitter's throat himself, so I wonder if he will pull the service.
Aren’t the EU trying to sanction or fine Tesla because of perceived moderation problems with Twitter?
For someone who left public life in 1983 he's still quite well-remembered, which is interesting.
I remember him for walking out of an interview
And remembering that interview with Robin Day I don't blame him for doing so. The here today gone tomorrow comment was very rude.
Didn't Sir Humphrey say that the average tenure of a Minister was 10..months.. not sure if it's true.. here today gone tomorrow isn't that rude if factual.....
Biden is reported to have said Harris wasn’t up to it.
I fear his intuition was right.
The trouble is neither was he. It's a damn shame that Biden didn't decide to be a one term President and allow a proper contest for the nomination.
I think Harris did well given her starting position, and was a reasonable enough candidate, but the Democrats might have done a lot better if they had a real contest to test potential candidates.
I may be wrong but he was one of the last National Liberal MPs - he represented St Ives in Cornwall for a number of years.
Just as an aside, is there any other constituency where the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have been the same at the last FIVE General Elections - Andrew George beat Derek Thomas in 2010 and 2024 while Thomas took the seat in 2015 and held it in both 2017 and 2019?
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
I always come up with a list which will save about £40-60 billion/year including ending Net Zero, foreign aid, HS2, aid to Northern Ireland and farming subsidies, and that's without breaking any sweat at all.
Until recently I worked in a public sector bureaucracy and I know there's loads of fat in public sector numbers if not staff costs.
HS2 - are you mad, seriously?
they have wasted a fortune on it , and for nothing, seriously.
Indeed. The idea Trump has clear ideological positions is silly. He does what’s best for him and what makes him look good. Getting “good deals” for America turns him on. Socially he’s probably still the vague New York liberal he was 20 years ago - he just hides it coz it suits him
A highly misogynist, little bit racist, kind of liberal,* yes. And not a god-botherer, although his laughable efforts to appear pious seem to fool most of the believers.
I really think this smoking ban is a very bad idea.
I hate smoking but I am not sure making it an underground industry is going to help.
Strict regulation on vapes I support but again the cat is so far out the bag we need to get people off it. Why do I feel a ban for that is coming at some point too.
Vaping liquid is extremely dense - a litre of concentrated stuff makes zillions of refills. Perfect for smuggling.
There is a problem with young people *starting* on vapes and getting addicted to the nicotine. They have replaced cigarettes, mostly.
Actually they haven't replaced cigarettes. Twin A watches Durham uni from a vague distance and it's definitely the case that teenagers Vape (often from the age of 11/12 - she's seen her guides doing it). But in this year's 1st/ 2nd years there are now a lot of vapers who also smoke cigarettes at social occasions.
The story she's heard multiple times is cigarettes when out and about but because they are so expensive vape when at home.
It's about creating / maintaining the nicotine addiction, BAT hasn't suddenly developed a guilty conscience about causing billions to die from cancer
DYOR ofc, but the value bets to me look to be Vance at 4.2, Buttigieg at 21, and Shapiro at 24, so I've had a small bet on Shapiro.
£100 for me on Vance as well as a small bet on Shapiro. I don't think Trump will particularly care about who succeeds him but Vance will I think have the MAGAs behind him in the GOP nomination stakes so he ought to be a fairly hefty favourite for the nom and obviously the presidency flows either one way or the other from there..
He's also a sharp debater, clearly won against Walz which helps.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
I always come up with a list which will save about £40-60 billion/year including ending Net Zero, foreign aid, HS2, aid to Northern Ireland and farming subsidies, and that's without breaking any sweat at all.
Until recently I worked in a public sector bureaucracy and I know there's loads of fat in public sector numbers if not staff costs.
HS2 - are you mad, seriously?
they have wasted a fortune on it , and for nothing, seriously.
Yes because it was beyond incompetently managed - Cheryl Gillan should have been told to do one and the original design left in place.
I will repeat again HS2 is nothing to do with speeds it's about adding essential capacity to our national train infrastructure because the 3 main North South lines are all running at well beyond capacity...
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
I always come up with a list which will save about £40-60 billion/year including ending Net Zero, foreign aid, HS2, aid to Northern Ireland and farming subsidies, and that's without breaking any sweat at all.
Until recently I worked in a public sector bureaucracy and I know there's loads of fat in public sector numbers if not staff costs.
HS2 - are you mad, seriously?
they have wasted a fortune on it , and for nothing, seriously.
The original idea was good, the implementation has been a disaster.
Not the activists but the Ming vase strategy. Kamala was criticised for her lack of policy announcements, or indeed anything beyond a perky laugh.
Short answer, no.
Longer answer (because you didn't ask for it), the "Ming Vase" strategy, a term I remember Roy Jenkins coining of Tony Blair in 1997, works best when you are coming into Government after a long period of Opposition. It doesn't work if you've been close to Government for the preceding four years.
Harris had a chance once she got the gig - either be "continuity Biden" or be radically different (as different as say Boris Johnson was to Theresa May or Liz Truss wanted to be to Boris Johnson). As you say, she in effect did neither and simply hoped that running on "isn't Trump horrible?" would be enough.
That works if you can clearly show you had no part in the policy making of the previous period (Starmer and Blair and indeed Cameron could all do that) but you can't look convincingly different if you were at the centre of the policy mess created (Boris succeeded but that was against Corbyn in unique circumstances).
Trump hadn't been POTUS since 2020 - why should he be judged on the Biden administration's record? There's an analogy to Wilson and Heath over here in the 60s and 70s. Harris had little choice - had Biden said earlier he wasn't going to run and the Democrats had a full primary, who knows? She might have been candidate anyway just as Gore was after Clinton and George H W Bush after Reagan (with different results).
The fundamental, I think, was the failure of the Biden administration (a failure shared by most other Governments across the world) to manage the economic and societal impacts of the Covid virus and the return of inflation and higher interest rates to electorates not used to them had a severe impact on Government popularity.
I'll go further - had Trump been re-elected in 2020, the Democrats would have won by a landslide this time. Had Corbyn won in 2019, the Conservatives would have won the next election by a landslide.
Putin apparently assumed that the West wouldn't impose tough sanctions on Russia when he invaded Ukraine in 2022, because sanctions would hurt the West too much. IF sanctions and the resulting inflation led to Trump's reelection (plus economic decline and rise in Putin-sympathetic parties in Europe), then sanctions have been extremely beneficial to Putin. They've also given discounted energy supplies to our competitors China and India.
So will history see sanctions as a big mistake? After all, Ukraine still allows Russian gas to go through pipelines through Ukraine, and picks up the fees.
Maybe we should have just used tightly targeted sanctions which avoided the worst economic self-harm, while giving Ukraine the military support it needed to quickly and decisively defeat Russia.
We'll see what happens in European Commission vs Musk.
He's of the view that he and his businesses are above the law. That might be doable in the USA for very rich people, and the UK authorities have often bent over for the US Government in practice, but I'm not sure that that will fly with the EC.
Musk has already cut Twitter's throat himself, so I wonder if he will pull the service.
Aren’t the EU trying to sanction or fine Tesla because of perceived moderation problems with Twitter?
They're talking about it though I wonder if that might go very quiet now (or, at least, until Musk and Trump fall out).
For someone who left public life in 1983 he's still quite well-remembered, which is interesting.
I remember him for walking out of an interview
And remembering that interview with Robin Day I don't blame him for doing so. The here today gone tomorrow comment was very rude.
Didn't Sir Humphrey say that the average tenure of a Minister was 10..months.. not sure if it's true.. here today gone tomorrow isn't that rude if factual.....
True and it was in comparison to professional military so even more true, but it was unnecessary and I think it was in relation to the Falklands war so even less reason, being largely non political issue at the time (ignoring Belgrano). He could have asked the question more politely. It wasn't even as if Nott was being confrontational and needed taking down a peg or two.
I have no issue with interviewers getting stuck into politicians. I think lots are too weak and let politicians get away with murder, but not in this case.
My memory of course could be faulty. It was a long time ago.
On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.
While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.
On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.
While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.
That’s exactly what Trump did. To his credit he ran in the middle on this.
Why is New Mexico so Democratic? The only state away from the far north east where the Dems took every single House seat.
Large number of hispanics of Mexican heritage plus the boundaries are drawn to the Dems advantage.
Re the last reason, that is not possible. The point of gerrymandering is herding your opponents into one or two carefully constructed areas so they win big there and you take the rest of the wards. If the Dems took every single seat that didn't happen (or even if it was gerrymandered they even took the seat(s) they had put by for the loser and still won them).
Not necessarily. If you (think you) have a big enough lead across the state, you might choose to draw unnatural boundaries to avoid giving your opponents any seats. It's more risky in the sense that given a big enough swing against you you might lose lots of seats, but it is the most efficient way of doing things.
@kamski you are far too quick. That dawned on me and I immediately edited my post correcting it and apologised to @another_richard for missing that point.
As I did that pretty immediately I don't know how you managed that.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
What I have seen work, in multiple companies, is the following -
- internal units doing what external management consultancies, nearly always fuck up. - they hire in individuals contractors if required to bulk out staffing during development etc. - their job is streamlining process and systems. - this is an ongoing, "couple of percent each year" kind of thing. - no attempts to re-engineer the entire company in one go. Piece by piece. And it's like the old story of painting the bridge. It's never completed. - it needs massive buy in and support from top management.
This leads to real productivity improvements. For example, in one bank, they got SSO working for everything in a 2 year program. SSO = Single Sign On. This is when you login once - all the systems you use pick up on that login, so you only need one userid and password to access everything for your job.
Another was a bank that analysed their use of contractors - and turned all the "permanent contractors" into full time staff. Which meant pay rises for some positions, but ended up cheaper over a 5 year cycle.
This is grown up "cutting red tape".
Note that one of the state governors to really get this is Shapiro.
He hasn't massively cut state spending, but what he has done extremely effectively is to actually get results (in limited areas admittedly) in the ever promised "cutting red tape" process.
Breaking the Backlog Lessons from Pennsylvania’s environmental permitting reforms https://cei.org/studies/breaking-the-backlog/ ..Gov. Josh Shapiro’s PAyback initiative, which guarantees the processing of state permit, license, and certification applications within a specified timeframe or a refund of the application fee will be issued, has also shown some promising results since its launch on November 1, 2023. As of early March 2024, the Department of State has not had to issue any refunds and has reduced turnaround times for some applications. For example, vehicle salesperson license processing time dropped from 12 days to one day, real estate broker licenses from 15 days to seven days, pharmacist licenses from 26 days to five days, and doctor licenses from 43 days to five days. Additionally, registering corporations or charitable organizations decreased from eight weeks to two or three days. The DEP has also shown signs of progress, with only four out of roughly 2,400 permits not being reviewed within the guaranteed timeframe...
Also knows how to use the executive bully pulpit to get stuff done>
I doubt he'd have made a really significant difference in the VP slot - and was probably in post too recently to have been a real contender had Biden stepped down before the primaries - but definitely one to watch for 2028.
From a usability point of view it’s awful. Goes down every week, suggested Tweets have nothing to do with the post above, stupid name…
If your solution to a left wing echo chamber is to make it a right wing echo chamber, it’s not free speech you value but influencing people.
Is that aimed at me? If so - I doubt musk cares
He’s achieved his purpose. He’s got Trump elected and he’s rolling back Wokeness
$44bn is a total bargain compared to all the power and money he will now accrue
Remember, people, when Leon talks about "rolling back Wokeness", what he means is that he doesn't like people telling him not to be racist. Because he really, really wants to be racist.
The Harris adverts were awful. The group of men going into vote together to MAGA and then the image of one of their daughters popping up and him changing his vote to Harris in the booth...
If you love your family you'll vote a certain way - how effective a message does anyone think that'll be ?
If anything, (as a completely speculative generalisation) women love their men, even if they are a bit like Trump, in a way that men don't necessarily love their women, even if they are a bit like Harris. Perhaps 'empathise with' is a better word than 'love' here.
This is why Trump, while being (in my eyes) clearly far more repulsive than Harris, can get away with insulting Harris, but it's dangerous for Harris to insult Trump.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
What I have seen work, in multiple companies, is the following -
- internal units doing what external management consultancies, nearly always fuck up. - they hire in individuals contractors if required to bulk out staffing during development etc. - their job is streamlining process and systems. - this is an ongoing, "couple of percent each year" kind of thing. - no attempts to re-engineer the entire company in one go. Piece by piece. And it's like the old story of painting the bridge. It's never completed. - it needs massive buy in and support from top management.
This leads to real productivity improvements. For example, in one bank, they got SSO working for everything in a 2 year program. SSO = Single Sign On. This is when you login once - all the systems you use pick up on that login, so you only need one userid and password to access everything for your job.
Another was a bank that analysed their use of contractors - and turned all the "permanent contractors" into full time staff. Which meant pay rises for some positions, but ended up cheaper over a 5 year cycle.
This is grown up "cutting red tape".
Note that one of the state governors to really get this is Shapiro.
He hasn't massively cut state spending, but what he has done extremely effectively is to actually get results (in limited areas admittedly) in the ever promised "cutting red tape" process.
Breaking the Backlog Lessons from Pennsylvania’s environmental permitting reforms https://cei.org/studies/breaking-the-backlog/ ..Gov. Josh Shapiro’s PAyback initiative, which guarantees the processing of state permit, license, and certification applications within a specified timeframe or a refund of the application fee will be issued, has also shown some promising results since its launch on November 1, 2023. As of early March 2024, the Department of State has not had to issue any refunds and has reduced turnaround times for some applications. For example, vehicle salesperson license processing time dropped from 12 days to one day, real estate broker licenses from 15 days to seven days, pharmacist licenses from 26 days to five days, and doctor licenses from 43 days to five days. Additionally, registering corporations or charitable organizations decreased from eight weeks to two or three days. The DEP has also shown signs of progress, with only four out of roughly 2,400 permits not being reviewed within the guaranteed timeframe...
Also knows how to use the executive bully pulpit to get stuff done>
I doubt he'd have made a really significant difference in the VP slot - and was probably in post too recently to have been a real contender had Biden stepped down before the primaries - but definitely one to watch for 2028.
Defo. If we buy that he effectively gains PA (It's close and he's well liked there) then it just leaves Michigan and Wisconsin for the Democrats too.
Indeed. The idea Trump has clear ideological positions is silly. He does what’s best for him and what makes him look good. Getting “good deals” for America turns him on. Socially he’s probably still the vague New York liberal he was 20 years ago - he just hides it coz it suits him
A highly misogynist, little bit racist, kind of liberal,* yes. And not a god-botherer, although his laughable efforts to appear pious seem to fool most of the believers.
I think narcissism is his defining trait though.
*They most certainly do exist
And really good pal of Epstein which I hear tell vague New York liberals* have a tendency towards.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
I always come up with a list which will save about £40-60 billion/year including ending Net Zero, foreign aid, HS2, aid to Northern Ireland and farming subsidies, and that's without breaking any sweat at all.
Until recently I worked in a public sector bureaucracy and I know there's loads of fat in public sector numbers if not staff costs.
HS2 - are you mad, seriously?
they have wasted a fortune on it , and for nothing, seriously.
Yes because it was beyond incompetently managed - Cheryl Gillan should have been told to do one and the original design left in place.
I will repeat again HS2 is nothing to do with speeds it's about adding essential capacity to our national train infrastructure because the 3 main North South lines are all running at well beyond capacity...
Who mentioned speeds, they have spent an absolute fortune and today have some ploughed up fields, a few tunnels and little else. Other countries would be able to do their whole country for less. What bit of that did you miss.
We'll see what happens in European Commission vs Musk.
He's of the view that he and his businesses are above the law. That might be doable in the USA for very rich people, and the UK authorities have often bent over for the US Government in practice, but I'm not sure that that will fly with the EC.
Musk has already cut Twitter's throat himself, so I wonder if he will pull the service.
Aren’t the EU trying to sanction or fine Tesla because of perceived moderation problems with Twitter?
They're talking about it though I wonder if that might go very quiet now (or, at least, until Musk and Trump fall out).
Half of me thinks it would be absolutely hilarious if they try and do that.
Tesla is a listed company, and would have the support of thousands of other listed companies with such an attempt at judicial overreach.
I may be wrong but he was one of the last National Liberal MPs - he represented St Ives in Cornwall for a number of years.
Just as an aside, is there any other constituency where the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have been the same at the last FIVE General Elections - Andrew George beat Derek Thomas in 2010 and 2024 while Thomas took the seat in 2015 and held it in both 2017 and 2019?
Probably not. Conwy had the same Con and LD/Liberal candidates for 5 general elections from 1979 to 1997, something I happened to be talking about a few weeks ago.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
What I have seen work, in multiple companies, is the following -
- internal units doing what external management consultancies, nearly always fuck up. - they hire in individuals contractors if required to bulk out staffing during development etc. - their job is streamlining process and systems. - this is an ongoing, "couple of percent each year" kind of thing. - no attempts to re-engineer the entire company in one go. Piece by piece. And it's like the old story of painting the bridge. It's never completed. - it needs massive buy in and support from top management.
This leads to real productivity improvements. For example, in one bank, they got SSO working for everything in a 2 year program. SSO = Single Sign On. This is when you login once - all the systems you use pick up on that login, so you only need one userid and password to access everything for your job.
Another was a bank that analysed their use of contractors - and turned all the "permanent contractors" into full time staff. Which meant pay rises for some positions, but ended up cheaper over a 5 year cycle.
This is grown up "cutting red tape".
Note that one of the state governors to really get this is Shapiro.
He hasn't massively cut state spending, but what he has done extremely effectively is to actually get results (in limited areas admittedly) in the ever promised "cutting red tape" process.
Breaking the Backlog Lessons from Pennsylvania’s environmental permitting reforms https://cei.org/studies/breaking-the-backlog/ ..Gov. Josh Shapiro’s PAyback initiative, which guarantees the processing of state permit, license, and certification applications within a specified timeframe or a refund of the application fee will be issued, has also shown some promising results since its launch on November 1, 2023. As of early March 2024, the Department of State has not had to issue any refunds and has reduced turnaround times for some applications. For example, vehicle salesperson license processing time dropped from 12 days to one day, real estate broker licenses from 15 days to seven days, pharmacist licenses from 26 days to five days, and doctor licenses from 43 days to five days. Additionally, registering corporations or charitable organizations decreased from eight weeks to two or three days. The DEP has also shown signs of progress, with only four out of roughly 2,400 permits not being reviewed within the guaranteed timeframe...
Also knows how to use the executive bully pulpit to get stuff done>
I doubt he'd have made a really significant difference in the VP slot - and was probably in post too recently to have been a real contender had Biden stepped down before the primaries - but definitely one to watch for 2028.
Harris should have chosen Shapiro as her running mate.
In the UK we take about 10 hours to count around 30 million votes. In California they take 10 weeks to count around 18 million votes.
There are conspiracy theories online right now about "missing votes" at the election, with people not realising that California still has millions of votes to count.
What gives me some comfort is that the US has voted for Trump fair and square. Most people have and he’s won the electoral college.
He owns it now. When he cocks it all up again (as I am confident he will), it will be only him to blame.
But the Democrats need to put together something now that goes beyond “not Trump”. It’s not enough. They need policies and a platform.
If they can do this, they will be glad they lost this election. Otherwise it’s JD Vance for two more terms.
I do have little confidence they will learn anything, though.
The Democrats had more policies than Trump. Trump randomly said things, that we have no idea whether they will happen or not. The closest thing he has to a platform is Project 2025, which he then spent ages saying he had nothing to do with. Maybe the Democrats should have spent more time highlighting their policies, but they had policies: https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/FINAL-MASTER-PLATFORM.pdf
OMG. A Dem-curious neutral clicking on that to find out about KH's policies are given ON PAGE 1:
Democratic National Convention Land Acknowledgement The Democratic National Committee wishes to acknowledge that we gather together to state our values on lands that have been stewarded through many centuries by the ancestors and descendants of Tribal Nations who have been here since time immemorial. We honor the communities...
Going on for FOUR paragraphs.
Not gonna encourage those worried she's a bit woke is it? Could they have not left it to the end?
Australia oscillates between Freedum! and Mad Nanny State.
“The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia” - expressed a cross party sentiment. One that is present in the UK, as well.
I could quite easily see a demand that all mobiles are registered to an individual, age registered etc.
Yes, this would be a total failure and a farce, for multiple reasons. But I could see it being tried.
Whilst I actually agree, that does mean taking phones, PCs and internet off people's children. Are they going to do this, or will they mandate child-safe dumbphones, tablets, PCs?
Shapiro-Whitmer (Or vice-versa) would be an immensely strong 2028 ticket for the Democrats wouldn't it ?
I don't think Shapiro would do well as a Jewish person. There's too much prejudice in the US, especially on the left, against Jews. Too many would rather sit on their hands and let Vance in than vote for a Jew IMO.
One of the major things wrong about today's society (and one of Viewcode's Rants) is "infantilised adults and adultised children". We constrain the behaviour of 18-25s because of pensionerism, and we libertise 0-16s. We are supposed to nanny children.
...By posting continued gains in the Portuguese southeast (which has recently been trending GOP quicker than anywhere else in the state), Trump made history — he became the first Republican to carry the city of Fall River since Calvin Coolidge. FR has now swung 52 points since 2012... https://x.com/alexanderao/status/1854368733130526979
Harris won the state with over 60% of the vote, so detail like this will get little notice - but it's illustrative of what cost the Democrats the election across the country.
How is it possible for there to be so much crime in a relatively small town like Slough? 63,692 violent crimes against the person in one year.
"Thames Valley Police (TVP) is responsible for tackling crime in Slough, which is one of the most dangerous towns in Berkshire. Over the last year, there have been 12 homicides in Slough and 63,692 violent crimes 'against the person' recorded as well, a rate of 24.98 per 1,000 people in the population. Meanwhile, there were 147,910 'victim-based crimes' recorded, covering a wide range of offences from sexual offences to stealing and criminal damage."
You can’t even say the Democrat supporters liked Kamala that much.
It’s not finished yet but they seem to had almost 10 million voters not vote at all. Kamala repelled people.
Did she - or was she just a reversion to the mean ?
Biden got a remarkable vote, historically, back in 2020.
These are the previous four Dem votes: Biden: 81m Clinton 65m Obama 65m Obama 69m
Percentage of the vote wise Harris got 47.6%, so almost the same but fractionally lower than the 48.2% Hillary got in 2016, the 48.3% Kerry got in 2004 and the 48.4% Gore got in 2000. However well below the 51.3% Biden got in 2020, the 51.1% Obama got in 2012 and the 52.9% Obama got in 2008.
Trump got 50.9%, so almost the same as the 50.7% Bush got in 2004 but fractionally higher
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
I always come up with a list which will save about £40-60 billion/year including ending Net Zero, foreign aid, HS2, aid to Northern Ireland and farming subsidies, and that's without breaking any sweat at all.
Until recently I worked in a public sector bureaucracy and I know there's loads of fat in public sector numbers if not staff costs.
HS2 - are you mad, seriously?
they have wasted a fortune on it , and for nothing, seriously.
Yes because it was beyond incompetently managed - Cheryl Gillan should have been told to do one and the original design left in place.
I will repeat again HS2 is nothing to do with speeds it's about adding essential capacity to our national train infrastructure because the 3 main North South lines are all running at well beyond capacity...
Who mentioned speeds, they have spent an absolute fortune and today have some ploughed up fields, a few tunnels and little else. Other countries would be able to do their whole country for less. What bit of that did you miss.
Hardly surprising when a Government changes it's mind every five minutes and doesn't just let the people building the project build the original designed specification...
As that is how the rest of europe builds project - they decide they want to do it, work out when it can be done and then leaves the people building it to get on and build it.
Here we start things off and then politicians interfere for political reasons and then complain again when their interference is discovered to have significantly increased the cost..
You can’t even say the Democrat supporters liked Kamala that much.
It’s not finished yet but they seem to had almost 10 million voters not vote at all. Kamala repelled people.
Did she - or was she just a reversion to the mean ?
Biden got a remarkable vote, historically, back in 2020.
These are the previous four Dem votes: Biden: 81m Clinton 65m Obama 65m Obama 69m
Population growth accounts for some of the rise from Clinton to Biden. If you look at those absolute numbers as a proportion of the US population it's 24.5%, 20.1%, 20.7% (as an incumbent) and 22.7%, once all the votes from California come in Kamala will get about 69m votes or about 20.4% of the population. It's loser territory. Boden ran a historically brilliant campaign against a weak Trump one, it was actually quite similar to Boris vs Corbyn, he put together a really strong coalition but not one that would stand the test of time.
How is the smoking ban enforced in many places? I can't see the difference.
Speaking as a parent of a teenager and pre-teen, what this sort of thing does is give a legal rationale to parents who want to restrict their children's social media usage.
Most parents worry about their children becoming TikTok zombies. I certainly do. But it's almost impossible to stop them without having an impact on their social life, because all their friends are on the same social media. They are also adept at pointing out the rank hypocrisy of their parents who are also glued to their iPhones. A ban is great. It means you can just say no, and most children are quite in awe of authority and will do as they're told at least when parents are watching, if it's the law. Even if they use social media "illegally" when parents are not watching (which of course they will), they will use it in naturally much smaller doses than if they're locked in their bedrooms every evening and throughout the weekend goggling at the stuff.
Just as with smoking, they might do it behind the metaphorical bike sheds with their friends, but they don't lounge on the sitting room sofa chain-smoking as soon as they get home from school.
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Were this Putin / Trump was 20 years younger I could see him running as Vice President with the President as a figurehead.
But Trump will be heading for retirement / retired on medical reasons / dead in 4 years and that is likely to mean it's Vance / the appointed vice president seeking their first full term.
A very interesting survey. I'm sure others will have raised this point, but what immediately leaps to my mind is that men are justifiably fed up with the way they've been belittled and denigrated over decades.
Following poll herding we’re now getting PB herding on how uniquely terrible Harris was as a candidate.
Just a couple days too late lads.
Her incredible get out the vote campaign, in which 85,000 Guardian journalist were to knock on doors and berate voters in Pennsylvania to vote trump, did not win it...
How is it possible for there to be so much crime in a relatively small town like Slough? 63,692 violent crimes against the person in one year.
"Thames Valley Police (TVP) is responsible for tackling crime in Slough, which is one of the most dangerous towns in Berkshire. Over the last year, there have been 12 homicides in Slough and 63,692 violent crimes 'against the person' recorded as well, a rate of 24.98 per 1,000 people in the population. Meanwhile, there were 147,910 'victim-based crimes' recorded, covering a wide range of offences from sexual offences to stealing and criminal damage."
Those violent crime figures gives Slough a population of 2.5 million - now that may be the population of Thames Valley Police but it calls the whole report into question.
If Slough police station had 64,000 reported violent crimes there would be a continual queue outside the station and the police wouldn't be doing anything other than crime reports...
The only reason Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO is so it can invade again in a few years with impunity. There is no other motivation.
I'm not seeing what's in this 'deal' for Ukraine.
And I'm not seeing what's in it for Europe, either: ..The WSJ reports that one idea proposed within Trump’s transition office would involve Ukraine promising not to join NATO for at least 20 years. In exchange, the US would reportedly continue to provide Ukraine with weapons and other military aid to deter future Russian aggression.
Under this proposal, the current front lines in the war would essentially be locked in place, with both Ukraine and Russia agreeing to “an 800-mile demilitarized zone” along the frontline. The Wall Street Journal notes that the details of who would police this demilitarized zone remain unclear, but one adviser said it would not involve American troops or funding from a US-backed international body like the United Nations.
“We can do training and other support, but the barrel of the gun is going to be European,” a member of Trump’s team told the WSJ. “We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it.“..
Is it better in the US system where Cabinet members are appointees rather than legislators? It seems ridiculous to expect someone in a post for 8 months to really understand their brief and enact meaningful change.
We'll see what happens in European Commission vs Musk.
He's of the view that he and his businesses are above the law. That might be doable in the USA for very rich people, and the UK authorities have often bent over for the US Government in practice, but I'm not sure that that will fly with the EC.
Musk has already cut Twitter's throat himself, so I wonder if he will pull the service.
Aren’t the EU trying to sanction or fine Tesla because of perceived moderation problems with Twitter?
They're talking about it though I wonder if that might go very quiet now (or, at least, until Musk and Trump fall out).
Half of me thinks it would be absolutely hilarious if they try and do that.
Tesla is a listed company, and would have the support of thousands of other listed companies with such an attempt at judicial overreach.
Musk is great at companies that rely on engineering innovation such as Tesla and SpaceX. Less so at Twitter/X where he has failed miserably and expensively. Which of those outcomes will he achieve at whatever job Trump gives him? Also how long will the Musk/Trump love in last?
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Were this Putin / Trump was 20 years younger I could see him running as Vice President with the President as a figurehead.
But Trump will be heading for retirement / retired on medical reasons / dead in 4 years and that is likely to mean it's Vance / the appointed vice president seeking their first full term.
More to the point, he's constitutionally barred from standing as VP.
How is it possible for there to be so much crime in a relatively small town like Slough? 63,692 violent crimes against the person in one year.
"Thames Valley Police (TVP) is responsible for tackling crime in Slough, which is one of the most dangerous towns in Berkshire. Over the last year, there have been 12 homicides in Slough and 63,692 violent crimes 'against the person' recorded as well, a rate of 24.98 per 1,000 people in the population. Meanwhile, there were 147,910 'victim-based crimes' recorded, covering a wide range of offences from sexual offences to stealing and criminal damage."
Hang on - according to wiki Slough has a population of 143K - that quote (63K and 24.98) implies a population of 2.5 Million. Something doesn't smell right.
The amount of young men being thrilled has really caught me by surprise. Trump clearly appeals to these people on the economy and other issues. It seems like going on Rogan etc was a touch of genius - assuming that is what has helped him reach these people.
I also wonder how if some of that is a rejection of Harris basically saying “vote for me, I am a woman” and almost taking those voters for granted.
I'm not surprised. It's a push back from young American men, especially white and Latino ones, who get told everything is their fault by women on TV and social media. There's been a drip, drip of poison that has made men on America feel emasculated and powerless in what they now feel is a system rigged against their success. Why would they vote for a woman who they feel was not only part of this emasculation process but also will speed it up?
That late TV ad with women winking at each other as they voted the opposite way from their husbands probably didn't do them any favours with male voters, either.
Women: Know Your Place.
The idea anyone should expect a woman to vote as she's told by her husband, or the same way, is sickening.
Nobody would expect a man to vote as his wife tells him to.
I don't know how much that is happening now, but it was certainly true with my parents. The irony being that my Mum was much brighter than my Dad. At one point I sat down with her and argued why she should vote Liberal and not Tory or at least think for herself for once, my Dad then convinced her back. This went back and forth and finally she said she didn't know what to do so wouldn't vote. I said to her I would rather she voted Tory than not vote because for once she had thought about it. Having doubt was reasonable, rather than going and putting a tick in a box because Dad told you to, without any thought whatsoever.
Obviously I don't want to lose in an election, but I feel happier losing knowing those I have lost to have thought about their choice, even though I disagree with them.
I think the men being offended at women daring to think their own thoughts for themselves is about societal culture. There is offence that assumed privileges are being questioned.
In pluralistic societies we see different types, and importantly times, of culture existing alongside each other. An example is that some traditionalist outlooks can see marital rape or honour violence as acceptable. How Dare My Wife Think For Herself is another of these imo, and is seen as a reason for personal offence - which the offended Big Man has to avenge because he can't bear being a Small Man. That was the dynamics when Trump raped his wife afaics.
If you look at the USA, consider the prissiness of much of it (swearing? pettiness of rules on housing estates?), compared with the blind spot on gun violence which ignores 10s of 1000s being killed using various rhetorical smokescreens. Equally over here we have a tolerance of swearing, but a blindspot on petty crime - stealing may be viewed as acceptable ("your fault") if a door is left unlocked.
There are plenty of similar examples of privilege hating being challenged - I'm always how people asked to move their vehicle blocking a pedestrian ramp or footway turn to abuse (I've had plenty) or threats of violence (I've never had this, but I know those who have). In the USA there's a whole scene obsessed with traffic cameras being 'unconstitutional'.
It's back to “Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will”.
How is the smoking ban enforced in many places? I can't see the difference.
Speaking as a parent of a teenager and pre-teen, what this sort of thing does is give a legal rationale to parents who want to restrict their children's social media usage.
Most parents worry about their children becoming TikTok zombies. I certainly do. But it's almost impossible to stop them without having an impact on their social life, because all their friends are on the same social media. They are also adept at pointing out the rank hypocrisy of their parents who are also glued to their iPhones. A ban is great. It means you can just say no, and most children are quite in awe of authority and will do they're told if it's the law. Even if they use social media "illegally" when parents are not watching (which of course they will), they will use it in naturally much smaller doses than if they're locked in their bedrooms every evening and throughout the weekend goggling at the stuff.
Just as with smoking, they might do it behind the metaphorical bike sheds with their friends, but they don't lounge on the siting room sofa chain-smoking as soon as they get home from school.
The use of VPNs combined with social pressure will make this impossible to enforce.
Also the fact that kids need to use computers for school these days - homework is set online and all communications come via email or online message boards - means you can't just stop them logging on.
As a (poo) analogy.
At the age of 35 I managed to stop smoking. I went from 60 a day to nothing because I realised that it was entirely a binary choice. A few times I a cigarette in my mouth but not lit before deciding to make that choice not to smoke.
However my overall willpower is pretty poor. So I have been overweight for years. Why? Because you can't make the binary choice about food. You have to eat so it becomes a matter of degrees. Something I am ppoor at judging and enforcing. Slippery slope and all that
If you were to ban kids from the internet entirely (I am not advocating this) then it would be a different matter. But telling them you can go online but you can't access social media is impossible to enforce.
Besides it is basically a fucking stupid idea. Decades of this sort of authoritarian garbage has proved one thing - banning stuff dooesn't work.
I often think that in the 1990s, in countries like the UK, US, Australia, etc, we had the closest thing to contented societies. The story since then has been of messing it up, making the wrong decisions.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
What I have seen work, in multiple companies, is the following -
- internal units doing what external management consultancies, nearly always fuck up. - they hire in individuals contractors if required to bulk out staffing during development etc. - their job is streamlining process and systems. - this is an ongoing, "couple of percent each year" kind of thing. - no attempts to re-engineer the entire company in one go. Piece by piece. And it's like the old story of painting the bridge. It's never completed. - it needs massive buy in and support from top management.
This leads to real productivity improvements. For example, in one bank, they got SSO working for everything in a 2 year program. SSO = Single Sign On. This is when you login once - all the systems you use pick up on that login, so you only need one userid and password to access everything for your job.
Another was a bank that analysed their use of contractors - and turned all the "permanent contractors" into full time staff. Which meant pay rises for some positions, but ended up cheaper over a 5 year cycle.
This is grown up "cutting red tape".
Note that one of the state governors to really get this is Shapiro.
He hasn't massively cut state spending, but what he has done extremely effectively is to actually get results (in limited areas admittedly) in the ever promised "cutting red tape" process.
Breaking the Backlog Lessons from Pennsylvania’s environmental permitting reforms https://cei.org/studies/breaking-the-backlog/ ..Gov. Josh Shapiro’s PAyback initiative, which guarantees the processing of state permit, license, and certification applications within a specified timeframe or a refund of the application fee will be issued, has also shown some promising results since its launch on November 1, 2023. As of early March 2024, the Department of State has not had to issue any refunds and has reduced turnaround times for some applications. For example, vehicle salesperson license processing time dropped from 12 days to one day, real estate broker licenses from 15 days to seven days, pharmacist licenses from 26 days to five days, and doctor licenses from 43 days to five days. Additionally, registering corporations or charitable organizations decreased from eight weeks to two or three days. The DEP has also shown signs of progress, with only four out of roughly 2,400 permits not being reviewed within the guaranteed timeframe...
Also knows how to use the executive bully pulpit to get stuff done>
I doubt he'd have made a really significant difference in the VP slot - and was probably in post too recently to have been a real contender had Biden stepped down before the primaries - but definitely one to watch for 2028.
Defo. If we buy that he effectively gains PA (It's close and he's well liked there) then it just leaves Michigan and Wisconsin for the Democrats too.
Those three States usually go for the same candidate.
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only.
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Interesting question. Can someone be elected VP after having been President twice and therefore get a partial 3rd term after the President dies/steps down?
I may be wrong but he was one of the last National Liberal MPs - he represented St Ives in Cornwall for a number of years.
Just as an aside, is there any other constituency where the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have been the same at the last FIVE General Elections - Andrew George beat Derek Thomas in 2010 and 2024 while Thomas took the seat in 2015 and held it in both 2017 and 2019?
On an adjacent note, is there a constituency where the same person has stood for THREE different parties?
The Leeanderthal Man has stood for both the Tories and Reform. Has anyone stood for more parties?
We're continually told that Trump would not defend NATO and that Orban would block it.
Either western countries are willing to defend Ukraine or they're not.
Whether Ukraine applies to join NATO or not is pretty irrelevant.
If Ukraine is in NATO though other NATO members are obliged to send troops and jets to defend it and engage in combat with Russian troops and planes. Whereas now as a non NATO member it only receives arms and aid
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only.
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Interesting question. Can someone be elected VP after having been President twice and therefore get a partial 3rd term after the President dies/steps down?
I think that to be VP you have to be eligible to be president.
On abortion, are there not lots of people who find boths extremes repellent? OTOH we have people saying 'Never', OTOH we have people basically speaking enthusiastically about what a great right it is to terminate unborn life because you want to in a context in which there are huge numbers of them, mostly entirely healthy.
While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.
One of these extremes only appears to exist as a fantasy. I've not seen the people enthusiastically calling for late abortions on a whim. I say that as someone steeped in the pro-choice movement (both parents + 1 godparent worked on the 1968 Abortion Act in the UK and the campaign leading up to it).
The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
I may be wrong but he was one of the last National Liberal MPs - he represented St Ives in Cornwall for a number of years.
Just as an aside, is there any other constituency where the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have been the same at the last FIVE General Elections - Andrew George beat Derek Thomas in 2010 and 2024 while Thomas took the seat in 2015 and held it in both 2017 and 2019?
Didn't something similar happen with Labour and Tories in Stroud? Six on the trot and a 3-3 draw IIRC.
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Were this Putin / Trump was 20 years younger I could see him running as Vice President with the President as a figurehead.
But Trump will be heading for retirement / retired on medical reasons / dead in 4 years and that is likely to mean it's Vance / the appointed vice president seeking their first full term.
More to the point, he's constitutionally barred from standing as VP.
In which case the Putin playbook would be to become secretary of state - but as I said he's too old for this to matter.
I suspect the question of who becomes VP once Vance becomes President comes down to how Trump leaves power. If managed I could easily see Ivanka becoming Vice President...
Not sure you realise how extreme this is. In the 1970s or 80s the equivalent would be locking kids in their rooms until they reached 16. The sort of thing that would get you done for child abuse. The internet and social media is that ingrained in the lives of young people.
How is it possible for there to be so much crime in a relatively small town like Slough? 63,692 violent crimes against the person in one year.
"Thames Valley Police (TVP) is responsible for tackling crime in Slough, which is one of the most dangerous towns in Berkshire. Over the last year, there have been 12 homicides in Slough and 63,692 violent crimes 'against the person' recorded as well, a rate of 24.98 per 1,000 people in the population. Meanwhile, there were 147,910 'victim-based crimes' recorded, covering a wide range of offences from sexual offences to stealing and criminal damage."
Hang on - according to wiki Slough has a population of 143K - that quote (63K and 24.98) implies a population of 2.5 Million. Something doesn't smell right.
Edited for nonsense. 63,692 violent crimes and 143k population means nearly 1 in 2 people suffered violent crime. If that was "all of Berkshire" that would be 1 in 15 people.
Whatever happens, if Starmer does not do something on the economy for working class people, he will be out on his ear.
He’s made some good steps like raising the minimum wage and giving public sector workers a decent pay rise for the first time in years.
Labours secret weapon in this space is the trade unions. Much derided by their opponents, they’re brilliant at keeping Labour grounded and connected.
Plus lower immigration, a ban on no-fault evictions, and the workers' rights bill which has some major reforms (and makes the gig economy much better). Together, they make life significantly better for people at the bottom end of the income distribution.
This stuff is tangible and easy to point at during a political campaign. Labour have really hit the ground running in this respect.
Ahahahahahaha
My 'at the bottom end of the income distribution' friends spent most of our conversation on Tuesday evening bemoaning all the local hotels which had been given over to asylum seekers. In a thoughtful and nuanced and sympathetic way. But also in a way expeessingsome drustration that there were just so many and thag tbis can't be a good use of public omney.
Here is a piercing and very relevant question from a Reform MP, on this exact point
“I questioned the Labour Minister in the House on whether assaulting British family farms for £520 million a year is the right thing to do when £3 billion last year was spent on hotels for illegal migrants.
Absolute madness. And this insane bill is only going to get worse. Labour hasn’t got a clue
Trump's just blown Reeves' budget to bits. She may be wise to have another go next Spring. As Heath is pointing out in Telegraph, as one example, likely if US is to stay with NATO it will now demand 3% GDP on defence as entrance fee.
That's going to result in a straight increase in income tax or VAT then blamed on Trump. There is no other way to raise the money required and you can't attach it to NI.
We can cut our absurdly bloated and pampered public sector in other ways. You know, the one that just committed £11 billion more in "climate aid", whatever that is, or £22 billion in pay increases for public sector workers.
So apart from things Ed Miliband is wasting money on (won't argue there carbon capture is a waste of money) - any ideas where else you can actually cut things.
I've asked before and it's strange that no-one comes up with actual areas where money can be saved. And please don't say staff as I will point at the NHS spending on agency staff and attach reports that show people are working through agencies because of their living costs..
What I have seen work, in multiple companies, is the following -
- internal units doing what external management consultancies, nearly always fuck up. - they hire in individuals contractors if required to bulk out staffing during development etc. - their job is streamlining process and systems. - this is an ongoing, "couple of percent each year" kind of thing. - no attempts to re-engineer the entire company in one go. Piece by piece. And it's like the old story of painting the bridge. It's never completed. - it needs massive buy in and support from top management.
This leads to real productivity improvements. For example, in one bank, they got SSO working for everything in a 2 year program. SSO = Single Sign On. This is when you login once - all the systems you use pick up on that login, so you only need one userid and password to access everything for your job.
Another was a bank that analysed their use of contractors - and turned all the "permanent contractors" into full time staff. Which meant pay rises for some positions, but ended up cheaper over a 5 year cycle.
This is grown up "cutting red tape".
Note that one of the state governors to really get this is Shapiro.
He hasn't massively cut state spending, but what he has done extremely effectively is to actually get results (in limited areas admittedly) in the ever promised "cutting red tape" process.
Breaking the Backlog Lessons from Pennsylvania’s environmental permitting reforms https://cei.org/studies/breaking-the-backlog/ ..Gov. Josh Shapiro’s PAyback initiative, which guarantees the processing of state permit, license, and certification applications within a specified timeframe or a refund of the application fee will be issued, has also shown some promising results since its launch on November 1, 2023. As of early March 2024, the Department of State has not had to issue any refunds and has reduced turnaround times for some applications. For example, vehicle salesperson license processing time dropped from 12 days to one day, real estate broker licenses from 15 days to seven days, pharmacist licenses from 26 days to five days, and doctor licenses from 43 days to five days. Additionally, registering corporations or charitable organizations decreased from eight weeks to two or three days. The DEP has also shown signs of progress, with only four out of roughly 2,400 permits not being reviewed within the guaranteed timeframe...
Also knows how to use the executive bully pulpit to get stuff done>
I doubt he'd have made a really significant difference in the VP slot - and was probably in post too recently to have been a real contender had Biden stepped down before the primaries - but definitely one to watch for 2028.
Harris should have chosen Shapiro as her running mate.
But we all know why she didn’t.
I don't, actually. From Googling, I'd guess it's either that he's too centrist or too pro-Israel (Google tells me he's both Jewish and pro-Israel, although the latter bit of that is ambiguous - I'm pro-Israel existing, but not pro its current leadership).
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Were this Putin / Trump was 20 years younger I could see him running as Vice President with the President as a figurehead.
But Trump will be heading for retirement / retired on medical reasons / dead in 4 years and that is likely to mean it's Vance / the appointed vice president seeking their first full term.
More to the point, he's constitutionally barred from standing as VP.
In which case the Putin playbook would be to become secretary of state - but as I said he's too old for this to matter.
I suspect the question of who becomes VP once Vance becomes President comes down to how Trump leaves power. If managed I could easily see Ivanka becoming Vice President...
VP candidate, Vance would have to win the 2028 election to become President first unless he already is as Trump has been impeached and removed or resigned Nixon 1974 style leaving VP Ford as POTUS
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only.
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Interesting question. Can someone be elected VP after having been President twice and therefore get a partial 3rd term after the President dies/steps down?
I think that to be VP you have to be eligible to be president.
We're continually told that Trump would not defend NATO and that Orban would block it.
Either western countries are willing to defend Ukraine or they're not.
Whether Ukraine applies to join NATO or not is pretty irrelevant.
If Ukraine is in NATO though other NATO members are obliged to send troops and jets to defend it and engage in combat with Russian troops and planes. Whereas now as a non NATO member it only receives arms and aid
And who is going to force them to meet these obligations ?
The amount of young men being thrilled has really caught me by surprise. Trump clearly appeals to these people on the economy and other issues. It seems like going on Rogan etc was a touch of genius - assuming that is what has helped him reach these people.
I also wonder how if some of that is a rejection of Harris basically saying “vote for me, I am a woman” and almost taking those voters for granted.
I'm not surprised. It's a push back from young American men, especially white and Latino ones, who get told everything is their fault by women on TV and social media. There's been a drip, drip of poison that has made men on America feel emasculated and powerless in what they now feel is a system rigged against their success. Why would they vote for a woman who they feel was not only part of this emasculation process but also will speed it up?
That late TV ad with women winking at each other as they voted the opposite way from their husbands probably didn't do them any favours with male voters, either.
Women: Know Your Place.
The idea anyone should expect a woman to vote as she's told by her husband, or the same way, is sickening.
Nobody would expect a man to vote as his wife tells him to.
I don't know how much that is happening now, but it was certainly true with my parents. The irony being that my Mum was much brighter than my Dad. At one point I sat down with her and argued why she should vote Liberal and not Tory or at least think for herself for once, my Dad then convinced her back. This went back and forth and finally she said she didn't know what to do so wouldn't vote. I said to her I would rather she voted Tory than not vote because for once she had thought about it. Having doubt was reasonable, rather than going and putting a tick in a box because Dad told you to, without any thought whatsoever.
Obviously I don't want to lose in an election, but I feel happier losing knowing those I have lost to have thought about their choice, even though I disagree with them.
I think the men being offended at women daring to think their own thoughts for themselves is about societal culture. There is offence that assumed privileges are being questioned.
In pluralistic societies we see different types, and importantly times, of culture existing alongside each other. An example is that some traditionalist outlooks can see marital rape or honour violence as acceptable. How Dare My Wife Think For Herself is another of these imo, and is seen as a reason for personal offence - which the offended Big Man has to avenge because he can't bear being a Small Man. That was the dynamics when Trump raped his wife afaics.
If you look at the USA, consider the prissiness of much of it (swearing? pettiness of rules on housing estates?), compared with the blind spot on gun violence which ignores 10s of 1000s being killed using various rhetorical smokescreens. Equally over here we have a tolerance of swearing, but a blindspot on petty crime - stealing may be viewed as acceptable ("your fault") if a door is left unlocked.
There are plenty of similar examples of privilege hating being challenged - I'm always how people asked to move their vehicle blocking a pedestrian ramp or footway turn to abuse (I've had plenty) or threats of violence (I've never had this, but I know those who have). In the USA there's a whole scene obsessed with traffic cameras being 'unconstitutional'.
It's back to “Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will”.
Kurtz: We train young men to drop fire on people, but their commanders won't allow them to write "fuck" on their airplanes because it's obscene
Tbh I can see the ticket for 2028 being Vance/Trump.
Eric or Ivanka? Trump Sr can't run again for POTUS under the constitution and I can't see him being interested in being VP only
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Were this Putin / Trump was 20 years younger I could see him running as Vice President with the President as a figurehead.
But Trump will be heading for retirement / retired on medical reasons / dead in 4 years and that is likely to mean it's Vance / the appointed vice president seeking their first full term.
More to the point, he's constitutionally barred from standing as VP.
In which case the Putin playbook would be to become secretary of state - but as I said he's too old for this to matter.
I suspect the question of who becomes VP once Vance becomes President comes down to how Trump leaves power. If managed I could easily see Ivanka becoming Vice President...
VP candidate, Vance would have to win the 2028 election to become President first unless he already is as Trump has been impeached and removed or resigned Nixon 1974 style leaving VP Ford as POTUS
I don't see Trump being President in 2028 - health is going to get him before then...
I often think that in the 1990s, in countries like the UK, US, Australia, etc, we had the closest thing to contented societies. The story since then has been of messing it up, making the wrong decisions.
Mid 1990s - mid 2000s does look like a bit of a golden age in some ways (can end earlier in 2001 with 9/11 and all that followed). But I'm a little cautious on that as it coincides with my teenage-university years which may skew my perspective.
Following poll herding we’re now getting PB herding on how uniquely terrible Harris was as a candidate.
Just a couple days too late lads.
Some PBers did point six months ago that the top five in the Dem candidate betting - Biden, Harris, Hillary, Michelle, Newsom - were all unelectable.
Biden clearly wasn't pre dementia given his win in 2020, Michelle may also have won this year who knows
Michelle Obama has no experience in, or apparent interest in elective political office, for herself.
What the Democrats need is a seasoned Governor, with deep political experience, who can build a coalition across the party. And combine it with a coalition *outside the party*.
I wouldn't call it a "landslide". The final share of the vote might be 51:48.
It was fairly efficiently distributed in a 50:50 country, but even Kamala, a dire token candidate anointed by the party machine, still won more than 200 EC votes. Republicans shouldn't get carried away. I can see people getting pretty sick of endless incompetence, psychodramas and megalomania over the next couple of years, and Trump is now a lame duck who can't run again and therefore may find it difficult to control his party especially in Congress and the states as those under him jockey for succession.
Trump is already down to 50.8% with millions of votes from California still to count, so I think he'll probably be down to 50% at least and possibly a touch lower.
What on earth do they all do in California?
Take a rest break after counting every 10 votes and go surfing for the rest of the day?
Is it better in the US system where Cabinet members are appointees rather than legislators? It seems ridiculous to expect someone in a post for 8 months to really understand their brief and enact meaningful change.
Why is that different to our system? Rachel Reeves was employed as a legislator before becoming Chancellor, an entirely different role
The only reason Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO is so it can invade again in a few years with impunity. There is no other motivation.
I'm not seeing what's in this 'deal' for Ukraine.
And I'm not seeing what's in it for Europe, either: ..The WSJ reports that one idea proposed within Trump’s transition office would involve Ukraine promising not to join NATO for at least 20 years. In exchange, the US would reportedly continue to provide Ukraine with weapons and other military aid to deter future Russian aggression.
Under this proposal, the current front lines in the war would essentially be locked in place, with both Ukraine and Russia agreeing to “an 800-mile demilitarized zone” along the frontline. The Wall Street Journal notes that the details of who would police this demilitarized zone remain unclear, but one adviser said it would not involve American troops or funding from a US-backed international body like the United Nations.
“We can do training and other support, but the barrel of the gun is going to be European,” a member of Trump’s team told the WSJ. “We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it.“..
Looks like a non starter to me. Also does Ukraine still hold Russian territory? Not sure how Putin would feel about bits of Russia being permanently part of Ukraine.
Needless to say Trump is a fecking idiot if he thinks this would be acceptable to Ukraine or to the rest of NATO.
Comments
I think Harris did well given her starting position, and was a reasonable enough candidate, but the Democrats might have done a lot better if they had a real contest to test potential candidates.
Just as an aside, is there any other constituency where the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have been the same at the last FIVE General Elections - Andrew George beat Derek Thomas in 2010 and 2024 while Thomas took the seat in 2015 and held it in both 2017 and 2019?
I think narcissism is his defining trait though.
*They most certainly do exist
https://search.app?link=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/17/cabinet-ministers-last-average-of-eight-months&utm_campaign=aga&utm_source=agsadl2,sh/x/gs/m2/4
He's also a sharp debater, clearly won against Walz which helps.
I will repeat again HS2 is nothing to do with speeds it's about adding essential capacity to our national train infrastructure because the 3 main North South lines are all running at well beyond capacity...
So will history see sanctions as a big mistake? After all, Ukraine still allows Russian gas to go through pipelines through Ukraine, and picks up the fees.
Maybe we should have just used tightly targeted sanctions which avoided the worst economic self-harm, while giving Ukraine the military support it needed to quickly and decisively defeat Russia.
I have no issue with interviewers getting stuck into politicians. I think lots are too weak and let politicians get away with murder, but not in this case.
My memory of course could be faulty. It was a long time ago.
While articulating a middle way between these two feels both intrusive into private lives and individual suffering, and also hard to pitch rightly, I wonder whether quite a lot of people are put off by the extremes on both sides, and have a very strong instinct that it should be both allowable but also much less routine or common.
As I did that pretty immediately I don't know how you managed that.
He hasn't massively cut state spending, but what he has done extremely effectively is to actually get results (in limited areas admittedly) in the ever promised "cutting red tape" process.
Breaking the Backlog
Lessons from Pennsylvania’s environmental permitting reforms
https://cei.org/studies/breaking-the-backlog/
..Gov. Josh Shapiro’s PAyback initiative, which guarantees the processing of state permit, license, and certification applications within a specified timeframe or a refund of the application fee will be issued, has also shown some promising results since its launch on November 1, 2023. As of early March 2024, the Department of State has not had to issue any refunds and has reduced turnaround times for some applications. For example, vehicle salesperson license processing time dropped from 12 days to one day, real estate broker licenses from 15 days to seven days, pharmacist licenses from 26 days to five days, and doctor licenses from 43 days to five days. Additionally, registering corporations or charitable organizations decreased from eight weeks to two or three days. The DEP has also shown signs of progress, with only four out of roughly 2,400 permits not being reviewed within the guaranteed timeframe...
Also knows how to use the executive bully pulpit to get stuff done>
How Pennsylvania’s Governor Turned A Collapsed Bridge Into A Political Win
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-governor-josh-shapiro-approval-polls-i-95-bridge-collapse/
I doubt he'd have made a really significant difference in the VP slot - and was probably in post too recently to have been a real contender had Biden stepped down before the primaries - but definitely one to watch for 2028.
This is why Trump, while being (in my eyes) clearly far more repulsive than Harris, can get away with insulting Harris, but it's dangerous for Harris to insult Trump.
"Australia plans social media ban for under-16s"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzd62g1r3o
*And particularly stupid princes of course.
Tesla is a listed company, and would have the support of thousands of other listed companies with such an attempt at judicial overreach.
But we all know why she didn’t.
There are conspiracy theories online right now about "missing votes" at the election, with people not realising that California still has millions of votes to count.
Well under three hours to count and declare c.10m votes. If one State can do it, the other 49 can do it too.
Not gonna encourage those worried she's a bit woke is it? Could they have not left it to the end?
Biden got a remarkable vote, historically, back in 2020.
These are the previous four Dem votes:
Biden: 81m
Clinton 65m
Obama 65m
Obama 69m
“The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia” - expressed a cross party sentiment. One that is present in the UK, as well.
I could quite easily see a demand that all mobiles are registered to an individual, age registered etc.
Yes, this would be a total failure and a farce, for multiple reasons. But I could see it being tried.
...By posting continued gains in the Portuguese southeast (which has recently been trending GOP quicker than anywhere else in the state), Trump made history — he became the first Republican to carry the city of Fall River since Calvin Coolidge. FR has now swung 52 points since 2012...
https://x.com/alexanderao/status/1854368733130526979
Harris won the state with over 60% of the vote, so detail like this will get little notice - but it's illustrative of what cost the Democrats the election across the country.
"Thames Valley Police (TVP) is responsible for tackling crime in Slough, which is one of the most dangerous towns in Berkshire. Over the last year, there have been 12 homicides in Slough and 63,692 violent crimes 'against the person' recorded as well, a rate of 24.98 per 1,000 people in the population. Meanwhile, there were 147,910 'victim-based crimes' recorded, covering a wide range of offences from sexual offences to stealing and criminal damage."
https://www.sloughobserver.co.uk/news/24705798.police-answer-tough-questions-slough-violent-crime/
WSJ: Trump team considers forcing Ukraine to suspend NATO bid for 20 years
The President-elect’s team reportedly considers asking Ukraine to defer NATO plans as part of a strategy to end Russia's war.
https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1854479212360487278
Trump got 50.9%, so almost the same as the 50.7% Bush got in 2004 but fractionally higher
As that is how the rest of europe builds project - they decide they want to do it, work out when it can be done and then leaves the people building it to get on and build it.
Here we start things off and then politicians interfere for political reasons and then complain again when their interference is discovered to have significantly increased the cost..
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice' - 22nd amendment of US constitution
Just a couple days too late lads.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d?mod=mhp Paywall
Most parents worry about their children becoming TikTok zombies. I certainly do. But it's almost impossible to stop them without having an impact on their social life, because all their friends are on the same social media. They are also adept at pointing out the rank hypocrisy of their parents who are also glued to their iPhones. A ban is great. It means you can just say no, and most children are quite in awe of authority and will do as they're told at least when parents are watching, if it's the law. Even if they use social media "illegally" when parents are not watching (which of course they will), they will use it in naturally much smaller doses than if they're locked in their bedrooms every evening and throughout the weekend goggling at the stuff.
Just as with smoking, they might do it behind the metaphorical bike sheds with their friends, but they don't lounge on the sitting room sofa chain-smoking as soon as they get home from school.
But Trump will be heading for retirement / retired on medical reasons / dead in 4 years and that is likely to mean it's Vance / the appointed vice president seeking their first full term.
Good morning, everybody.
If Slough police station had 64,000 reported violent crimes there would be a continual queue outside the station and the police wouldn't be doing anything other than crime reports...
And I'm not seeing what's in it for Europe, either:
..The WSJ reports that one idea proposed within Trump’s transition office would involve Ukraine promising not to join NATO for at least 20 years. In exchange, the US would reportedly continue to provide Ukraine with weapons and other military aid to deter future Russian aggression.
Under this proposal, the current front lines in the war would essentially be locked in place, with both Ukraine and Russia agreeing to “an 800-mile demilitarized zone” along the frontline. The Wall Street Journal notes that the details of who would police this demilitarized zone remain unclear, but one adviser said it would not involve American troops or funding from a US-backed international body like the United Nations.
“We can do training and other support, but the barrel of the gun is going to be European,” a member of Trump’s team told the WSJ. “We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it.“..
Less so at Twitter/X where he has failed miserably and expensively.
Which of those outcomes will he achieve at whatever job Trump gives him?
Also how long will the Musk/Trump love in last?
In pluralistic societies we see different types, and importantly times, of culture existing alongside each other. An example is that some traditionalist outlooks can see marital rape or honour violence as acceptable. How Dare My Wife Think For Herself is another of these imo, and is seen as a reason for personal offence - which the offended Big Man has to avenge because he can't bear being a Small Man. That was the dynamics when Trump raped his wife afaics.
If you look at the USA, consider the prissiness of much of it (swearing? pettiness of rules on housing estates?), compared with the blind spot on gun violence which ignores 10s of 1000s being killed using various rhetorical smokescreens. Equally over here we have a tolerance of swearing, but a blindspot on petty crime - stealing may be viewed as acceptable ("your fault") if a door is left unlocked.
There are plenty of similar examples of privilege hating being challenged - I'm always how people asked to move their vehicle blocking a pedestrian ramp or footway turn to abuse (I've had plenty) or threats of violence (I've never had this, but I know those who have). In the USA there's a whole scene obsessed with traffic cameras being 'unconstitutional'.
It's back to “Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will”.
Also the fact that kids need to use computers for school these days - homework is set online and all communications come via email or online message boards - means you can't just stop them logging on.
As a (poo) analogy.
At the age of 35 I managed to stop smoking. I went from 60 a day to nothing because I realised that it was entirely a binary choice. A few times I a cigarette in my mouth but not lit before deciding to make that choice not to smoke.
However my overall willpower is pretty poor. So I have been overweight for years. Why? Because you can't make the binary choice about food. You have to eat so it becomes a matter of degrees. Something I am ppoor at judging and enforcing. Slippery slope and all that
If you were to ban kids from the internet entirely (I am not advocating this) then it would be a different matter. But telling them you can go online but you can't access social media is impossible to enforce.
Besides it is basically a fucking stupid idea. Decades of this sort of authoritarian garbage has proved one thing - banning stuff dooesn't work.
Either western countries are willing to defend Ukraine or they're not.
Whether Ukraine applies to join NATO or not is pretty irrelevant.
The Leeanderthal Man has stood for both the Tories and Reform. Has anyone stood for more parties?
The reality of late abortion is that it is something women only do in extreme and rare situations. I am very happy to leave those difficult decisions up to the women involved and their healthcare teams. That's basically the approach that works in the UK. Late abortions are very rare; women aren't dying because healthcare staff are scared of being jailed (as now happens regularly in the US).
I suspect the question of who becomes VP once Vance becomes President comes down to how Trump leaves power. If managed I could easily see Ivanka becoming Vice President...
Is it one of those?
There was no chance of Michelle Obama getting appointed as Dem candidate let alone winning the election.
Either they are willing to do so or they're not.
What the Democrats need is a seasoned Governor, with deep political experience, who can build a coalition across the party. And combine it with a coalition *outside the party*.
See Bill Clinton for a master class in this.
Take a rest break after counting every 10 votes and go surfing for the rest of the day?
Needless to say Trump is a fecking idiot if he thinks this would be acceptable to Ukraine or to the rest of NATO.