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A bit of movement away from Trump on Betfair – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    Updated 15m ago
    Nate Cohn Chief political analyst
    In states reporting votes so far, we’ve seen results from 133 counties, precincts and townships that we think are basically complete. They are almost exactly in line with our pre-election projections pointing toward a very close race.

    NYT swingometer 276 Trump, all results still well possible though.

    I'm not adding to Harris but not dumping my green yet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    Crypto markets seems to be heading upwards significantly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    NickPalmer said:

    White men voting 59%-39% for Trump is pretty startling.

    I don't normally feel shared racial guilt, but...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Well done the Labour Government for officially sending off people and paying them to go campaign for Harris

    Now President Trump 2.0 will nuke us. Brilliant

    Wankers
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls

    I think Kamala might be in a bit of trouble...
    Democrats outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania so Trump had to win Independents clearly to have any chance at all there.

    With 7% in Pennsylvania is Harris 73% Trump 26%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    NickPalmer said:

    White men voting 59%-39% for Trump is pretty startling.

    They voted 61-38 Trump last time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 883
    Leon said:

    Well done the Labour Government for officially sending off people and paying them to go campaign for Harris

    Now President Trump 2.0 will nuke us. Brilliant

    Wankers

    BRACE?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Pulpstar said:


    Updated 15m ago
    Nate Cohn Chief political analyst
    In states reporting votes so far, we’ve seen results from 133 counties, precincts and townships that we think are basically complete. They are almost exactly in line with our pre-election projections pointing toward a very close race.

    NYT swingometer 276 Trump, all results still well possible though.

    I'm not adding to Harris but not dumping my green yet.

    Selzer poll not looking likely!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,328
    Leon said:

    Well done the Labour Government for officially sending off people and paying them to go campaign for Harris

    Now President Trump 2.0 will nuke us. Brilliant

    Wankers

    But when the Tories or Farage do it, it's fine right?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 777
    Feels like about right odds now and am ill (not cause of this, got bloody foot and mouth disease) so gonna go sleep and see where things are in the morning.

    Whoever wins it's now nailed on to be an entertaining few days :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    Just putting it out there now, there are limited spaces in my garden bomb shelter....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    Clayton County, Georgia - Harris bang on where she needs to be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Crypto markets seems to be heading upwards significantly.

    If there's one demographic Trump is winning by North Korean margins it's the crypto bros.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    I'm going to try to sleep, but even knowing it was gloomy early on in 2020, the underestimatioon of Trump pretty consistently in several states is very worrying.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,077
    Hey guys, Is Trump going to win or is Kamala good value at 2-1?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    NYT needle moving more to Harris. 274 Trump.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    RobD said:

    The needle is live

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html

    Yay, the moment we've all been waiting for. 😊 I thought it might not be returning this time.

    Hang on, I'm getting a pay wall. I thought they'd lifted it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    RobD said:

    The needle is live

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html

    And its forecast - 'It's a tossup' at this stage
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    Dumbosaurus said:

    Feels like about right odds now and am ill (not cause of this, got bloody foot and mouth disease) so gonna go sleep and see where things are in the morning.

    Whoever wins it's now nailed on to be an entertaining few days :smiley:

    What's the 2024 version of hanging chads?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Hey guys, Is Trump going to win or is Kamala good value at 2-1?

    Trump is probably going to win but Harris is the value I think.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MarqueeMark said:

    Clayton County, Georgia - Harris bang on where she needs to be.

    Got some money on at 5/1 - don't see why the odds should be that extreme.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Andy_JS said:

    NickPalmer said:

    White men voting 59%-39% for Trump is pretty startling.

    They voted 61-38 Trump last time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
    She needs better than that probably.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    Georgia only at 50% reported, so much for 75% by 1am :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    TheGreenMachine said:

    Hey guys, Is Trump going to win or is Kamala good value at 2-1?

    I've been buying Trump, but right now anything is possible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    277 NYT needle. More exciting than reporting the 10 yr gilt yield this :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    6 Dekalb polling centres have gotten voting extensions after Russian-generated bomb threats.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,236
    Pulpstar said:

    277 NYT needle. More exciting than reporting the 10 yr gilt yield this :D

    Decision Desk 278 so similar
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    edited November 6
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    The needle is live

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html

    Yay, the moment we've all been waiting for. 😊 I thought it might not be returning this time.

    Hang on, I'm getting a pay wall. I thought they'd lifted it.
    You just have to log in, no sub needed.

    Trump up one EV! Mashing F5 continues…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    kle4 said:

    I'm going to try to sleep, but even knowing it was gloomy early on in 2020, the underestimatioon of Trump pretty consistently in several states is very worrying.

    Where? As far as I can see the early results match most of the final swing state polls, albeit Harris now leads in NC which was not expected but that may swing back
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    edited November 6
    Trump only 4% behind in New Jersey.
    10% now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    Weirdly, Polymarket Pennsylvania has swung sharply to Harris:


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Ohio 40% in

    Trump 49.7%
    Harris 49.6%
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    rcs1000 said:

    Weirdly, Polymarket Pennsylvania has swung sharply to Harris:


    56%-47%? Am I misreading that (presumably)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595
    I'm done in and off to bed.

    Same as 2020, I’ll go to bed with Trump as favourite and wake up to see he’s losing (hopefully 🤞🤞)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    BREEAAKKKKING NEWSSS....CNN Projects Trumps wins South Carolina
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    North Dakota less than 1% in

    Trump 75%
    Harris 23%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    Florida has rejected the right to an abortion - didn't meet the 60% threshhold - by 1.6%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    North Carolina - Harris is 27,000 ahead after 12%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Virginia 39% in

    Trump 49.2%
    Harris 49.1%

    Looking better than expected for Trump in Virginia
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    OK I'm off to bed now too!

    Enjoy the rest of the night everyone! :smiley:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    edited November 6
    Legalisation of marijuana also failed in Florida
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    HYUFD said:

    Ohio 40% in

    Trump 49.7%
    Harris 49.6%

    Same point 4 yrs back


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    HYUFD said:

    Virginia 39% in

    Trump 49.2%
    Harris 49.1%

    Looking better than expected for Trump in Virginia

    Republicans always outperform early in Virginia - just as Democrats do in TX.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    South Carolina projected for Trump
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,824
    Trump is catching up in Virginia: now within 43,000. of Kamala
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ohio 40% in

    Trump 49.7%
    Harris 49.6%

    Same point 4 yrs back


    Presumably 4 years ago would have been skewed by lots of mail votes at this point
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,077
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREEAAKKKKING NEWSSS....CNN Projects Trumps wins South Carolina

    Was that a terrible odds state?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    New Jersey 20% in

    Harris 54%
    Trump 44%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    BREAAKKKKKINNGGGG NEWSSSSSS..CNN Project Trump wins Arkansas
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    MarqueeMark said:

    Legalisation of marijuana also failed in Florida

    Looks like it got about 55% but needed 60% to pass.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    MarqueeMark said:

    Legalisation of marijuana also failed in Florida

    Have to stick to the coke.....
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,077
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREAAKKKKKINNGGGG NEWSSSSSS..CNN Project Trump wins Arkansas

    Aren't those the foregone conclusion states?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,236
    Off to bed. Looks like Reps have won the Senate back regardless of the presidential result
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    edited November 6
    TheGreenMachine said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREAAKKKKKINNGGGG NEWSSSSSS..CNN Project Trump wins Arkansas

    Aren't those the foregone conclusion states?
    Yep
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    TheGreenMachine said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREEAAKKKKING NEWSSS....CNN Projects Trumps wins South Carolina

    Was that a terrible odds state?
    V safe GOP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    TheGreenMachine said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREAAKKKKKINNGGGG NEWSSSSSS..CNN Project Trump wins Arkansas

    Aren't those the foregone conclusion states?
    Yes they are.
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,077
    RobD said:

    TheGreenMachine said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREAAKKKKKINNGGGG NEWSSSSSS..CNN Project Trump wins Arkansas

    Aren't those the foregone conclusion states?
    Yep
    Truth be told, we all only care about the 5-6 main states / close betting states.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Now tied in North Carolina with 14% in

    Harris 49.5%
    Trump 49.5%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    edited November 6
    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like Georgia is going to vote Trump. Those gender splits flattered to deceive.

    It's not over. But it's close to it - those positive vibes in the last week around female voting and late breakers appears to have been just campaign spin. Some even thought it would be a big Dem win.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    If this is correct, then who knows when we'll know the result...


  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like Georgia is going to vote Trump. Those gender splits flattered to deceive.

    Exit poll implied Trump 50.1, Harris 48.4 - though presumably that only covers on the day voters?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    rcs1000 said:

    If this is correct, then who knows when we'll know the result...

    Lawyers rubbing their hands....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Kansas 8% in

    Harris 49.4%
    Trump 49.3%
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,824
    Damn it is neck-and-neck in VA
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Illinois 7% in

    Harris 58%
    Trump 41%
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    viewcode said:

    Damn it is neck-and-neck in VA

    It really isn't. The Dem votes will come later
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,612
    Looks like it is all down to Pennsylvania, which is leaning Trump.

    BRACE.

    Think I'll have to give up here. Don't have nightmares now...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    viewcode said:

    Damn it is neck-and-neck in VA

    The final votes in Virginia are usually very heavily Democratic, from the area next to Washington DC, Fairfax.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    Should have done this earlier but we should maybe name the different types of result, we can do it based on who is trying to make it happen.

    The Khamenei: Clear Harris win
    The Netanyahu: Clear Trump win
    The Xi: Borderline Harris win with maximum chaos
    The Putin: Borderline Trump win with maximum chaos
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Texas 53% in

    Trump 52%
    Harris 47%
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    Trump win %

    Polymarket 71.6%
    Betfair 70.4%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    Driver said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like Georgia is going to vote Trump. Those gender splits flattered to deceive.

    Exit poll implied Trump 50.1, Harris 48.4 - though presumably that only covers on the day voters?
    That looks about right: Trump by 1.5%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Flatlander said:

    Looks like it is all down to Pennsylvania, which is leaning Trump.

    BRACE.

    Think I'll have to give up here. Don't have nightmares now...

    Harris still leads in Pennsylvania with 70% to 29% for Trump with 9% in
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    It's going to come down to lawfare in PA isn't. Maybe Shapiro can rob it for Harris lol.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 883
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    Looks like it is all down to Pennsylvania, which is leaning Trump.

    BRACE.

    Think I'll have to give up here. Don't have nightmares now...

    Harris still leads in Pennsylvania with 70% to 29% for Trump with 9% in
    ... which as CNN said is largely down to Philadelphia reporting.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Harris should have gone with Shapiro as the Veep
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    Still plenty of Georgia blue areas with very low reporting %s, I'm a long way from calling that state...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Please please can we stop posting state level totals when less than 20% of the votes are in. They are near-meaningless
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Driver said:

    Still plenty of Georgia blue areas with very low reporting %s, I'm a long way from calling that state...

    Trump is up in the rural counties and matching 2020 in the suburbs. It looks over sadly
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    edited November 6
    not_on_fire said:

    Please please can we stop posting state level totals when less than 20% of the votes are in. They are near-meaningless

    Please pass that on to Canadian TV election night hosts who regularly report results when 0.1% is in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    not_on_fire said:

    Harris should have gone with Shapiro as the Veep

    Although then she might have gained Pennsylvania, but lost Michigan...
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,077
    not_on_fire said:

    Harris should have gone with Shapiro as the Veep

    Agreed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Come on Pennsylvania, it's all on you (and Michigan).
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    NYT needle pushing the Trump lean boundary, predicted Harris PV lead central forecast under 1%.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    CNN showing straw in the wind, two counties that are big university towns in Michigan, Harris doing much worse than Biden (seemingly due to Palestine issue).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Driver said:

    Trump win %

    Polymarket 71.6%
    Betfair 70.4%

    Those high figures are not justified by the results so far.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 883
    MarqueeMark said:

    Legalisation of marijuana also failed in Florida

    MM are you still expecting a Harris win?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    kle4 said:

    Come on Pennsylvania, it's all on you (and Michigan).

    Pretty much as expected this morning (plus Wisconsin)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    Good news out of Atlanta, Georgia - Harris ahead of Biden, Trump about 3% down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Kansas 10% in

    Trump 51%
    Harris 47%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    A reminder that you can see the needle on a state by state basis. One interesting plot is of the current lead and projected lead, about half way down.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    HYUFD said:

    Kansas 10% in

    Trump 51%
    Harris 47%

    Meaningless
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    15 mins until huge chunk of states polls close....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Ohio 43% in

    Trump 51%
    Harris 48%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN showing straw in the wind, two counties that are big university towns in Michigan, Harris doing much worse than Biden (seemingly due to Palestine issue).

    Rock and hard place for the Dems on Israel/Palestine.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    Andy_JS said:

    Driver said:

    Trump win %

    Polymarket 71.6%
    Betfair 70.4%

    Those high figures are not justified by the results so far.
    Indeed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Driver said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Driver said:

    Trump win %

    Polymarket 71.6%
    Betfair 70.4%

    Those high figures are not justified by the results so far.
    Indeed.
    Betting opportunities for people with a bit of spare money floating around. (Regrettably not me atm, lol).
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,960
    edited November 6
    Interesting: The WaPo has an interactive map showing how counties have shifted since 2020. Right now, there are many blue arrows (shifts to Democrats) in Ohio.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/11/05/compare-2020-2024-presidential-results/

    (Interesting is as far as I'll go, at the moment.)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BREAKKKKING NEWS....Ted Cruz behind at the moment in Texas.

    BUT note that TX urban & suburban counties almost all reporting 50% of more of expected votes counted; wheras PLENTY of rurals yet to report anything.

    Draw your own conclusions.
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