I can't wait for that moment when a really important state just seems to get stuck on reporting 67.2% or whatever, whilst everyone goes nuts around them.
Also there's the perennial problem of whether "67% reporting" means 67% of votes or 67% of precincts.
Georgia - Exit poll good for Trump, early results good for Harris. What a muddle!
I'd trust the exit poll more than the early results. It's quite common to see the early results point one way and for it to end up going decisively in the other direction when the last 30-40% are counted.
It's a bit more complex than that, because you see it at a county level. And the counties are often 70+% counted.
The CNN spin on everything is really tiring. After been shown that voters of North Carolina extremely pissed with the way things have been going, economy most important issue, Biden terrible ratings, they go well I am certain a chunk of those pissed, its about abortion rights, orange man bad....
Before I began looking at early returns - and PB - this evening (late afternoon in Seattle) I went down to King County Election to observe . . . AND to return my own humble ballot.
King Co ballot returns as of 4pm PST = 927k = 65.0% of over 1.4m registered.
NOTE that KCE expect to tabulate at least 787k by tonight's unofficial, partial results report shortly after 8pm, so somewhere around half of final turnout, or a bit more.
However, that does NOT include many ballots at election HQ yet to be sorted, nor ones still to be collected from drop boxes (up to 8pm) OR tomorrows incoming mail.
Down on the ground at KCE, long lines of cars arriving with voters wanting to drop off their ballots, indeed a major traffic jam. And longish lines of other voters either wanted to vote (including using tech to assist disabled) or who have some kind of issue (such as not receiving or misplacing their ballot).
To see current action at KCE (including voter assistance AND drop-box ballots arriving at warehouse) see:
Trump is running well ahead of 2020 in Florida and Kentucky, but behind in Indiana.
Georgia early vote numbers are a little hard to divine, because while Harris is doing better than in 2020 all the counties are rural, and they are all big wins for Trump. There's nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Savannha, Atghens or Columbus.
Trump is running well ahead of 2020 in Florida and Kentucky, but behind in Indiana.
Georgia early vote numbers are a little hard to divine, because while Harris is doing better than in 2020 all the counties are rural, and they are all big wins for Trump. There's nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Savannha, Atghens or Columbus.
Plus it's early voting.
Are we still expecting some sort of vote dump at 0100 GMT? Thinking of waiting for that then going to bed
Georgia - Exit poll good for Trump, early results good for Harris. What a muddle!
I'd trust the exit poll more than the early results. It's quite common to see the early results point one way and for it to end up going decisively in the other direction when the last 30-40% are counted.
It's a bit more complex than that, because you see it at a county level. And the counties are often 70+% counted.
True, but I'd wait for them to be more like 90% before drawing conclusions about the movement from 2020.
Georgia - Exit poll good for Trump, early results good for Harris. What a muddle!
I'd trust the exit poll more than the early results. It's quite common to see the early results point one way and for it to end up going decisively in the other direction when the last 30-40% are counted.
It's a bit more complex than that, because you see it at a county level. And the counties are often 70+% counted.
True, but I'd wait for them to be more like 90% before drawing conclusions about the movement from 2020.
Just think of how much you have to win the last 10 percent by to overcome even a 3% lead.
I have bought Trump for the Presidency on Polymarket.
I may reverse course later, but the early results seem to be in his favour.
Yes. It feels to me like the best hope for Harris at this stage is the rust belt and hoping it comes through. Not convinced that GA looks good. But a long way to run.
BREEEAAKKKKINNNGGG NEWWS.....CNN - Trump will win West Virgina. Too early to call North Carolina and Ohio.
Ohio is pretty solidly GOP thesedays?
West Virginia is so Rep that they can call it without even getting any votes in (same for Vermont for the Dems)
Think CNN projects Lab will win Bootle.
Though West Virginia too voted for Bill Clinton, another change as happening across the west with white working class areas voting more for rightwing parties and upper middle class areas more for left liberal parties
I am smashing F5 but BF exchange is still down for me, so i am going to bed. I think i am realistically green unless Trump manages to win the WH but lose the sun belt
Seems Mark "Black Nazi" Robinson is unsurprisingly getting trashed in North Carolina. I wonder how much that will hit Trump's vote?
Harris still ahead in North Carolina. If she wins there, Michigan, Wisconsin and one of Nevada or Iowa she still would win the EC even if she lost Pennsylvania as well as losing Georgia and Arizona
Harris campaign deploys celebrities to keep students in line to vote
The Harris campaign is mobilizing celebrities to try and keep college students in line to vote as they wait for hours to cast ballots.
Queueing for hours to vote. They truly have a ridiculous system.
I've never experienced a line to vote which took more than 30 seconds to get through, waiting for hours must be interminable. How did people manage it without smartphones?
I suppose what everyone did before smartphones, they thought for themselves, but it feels weird.
Comments
In 1936 the only states GOP nominee Alf Landon won against FDR for example were Maine and Vermont in New England
Bit early for that though.
Arizona
Colorado
Georgia
Illinois
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin
and the presidency
When will the BBC learn we don't give a shit about talking heads, and want data?
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/kentucky/president
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-president.html
My map will take the quickest call from any reputable source.
Trump 28 - 3 Harris.
Folk are calling the World Cup on the basis of the first corner won in the first group game.
King Co ballot returns as of 4pm PST = 927k = 65.0% of over 1.4m registered.
NOTE that KCE expect to tabulate at least 787k by tonight's unofficial, partial results report shortly after 8pm, so somewhere around half of final turnout, or a bit more.
However, that does NOT include many ballots at election HQ yet to be sorted, nor ones still to be collected from drop boxes (up to 8pm) OR tomorrows incoming mail.
Down on the ground at KCE, long lines of cars arriving with voters wanting to drop off their ballots, indeed a major traffic jam. And longish lines of other voters either wanted to vote (including using tech to assist disabled) or who have some kind of issue (such as not receiving or misplacing their ballot).
To see current action at KCE (including voter assistance AND drop-box ballots arriving at warehouse) see:
https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/elections/about-us/security-and-accountability/watch-us-in-action
ADDENDUM - Bit of a lull at the moment, but that's momentary.
Who else is going to be watching other than anoraks?
Georgia early vote numbers are a little hard to divine, because while Harris is doing better than in 2020 all the counties are rural, and they are all big wins for Trump. There's nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Savannha, Atghens or Columbus.
Plus it's early voting.
Trump 59% Harris 39%
Harris 54% Trump 44%
I may reverse course later, but the early results seem to be in his favour.
Anyone have comparatives?
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/state/north-carolina
Harris campaign deploys celebrities to keep students in line to vote
The Harris campaign is mobilizing celebrities to try and keep college students in line to vote as they wait for hours to cast ballots.
Trump 60% Harris 38%
You just stop when your side is ahead even when there's votes to count, right?
I say this based on the latest numbers on CNN. The Florida Senate race is so far quite closely tracking Trump's numbers.
Conversely Sherrod Brown is running ahead of Harris in ohio, which gives him a chance of hanging on there.
I suppose what everyone did before smartphones, they thought for themselves, but it feels weird.
Harris camp worried about GA/NC.
Florida is not representative.