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A bit of movement away from Trump on Betfair – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    Decision Desk has Trump 76% likely to win Georgia.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    I’m looking forward to Iowa to see if all the hype about that poll was justified. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Yokes said:

    If its the economy for voters, Trump has this won. Its that straightfoward.

    Depends on the state, the economy is worse in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona for example but better in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Iowa
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    BREEAAAKKKINGGG NEWSSSSSS.....Exit poll questions looks much better for Harris in Penn.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,805
    Could be an election of two halves this.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,595

    Could be an election of two halves this.

    Last time I went to bed at 02:00 convinced Trump had won.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.
  • Are we expecting the early GA voting data to be complete and dropped in 7 minutes time? Or was that just an approximation?

    I seem to recall @rcs1000 suggesting 1am but wasn't sure if it was definite.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937

    BREEAAAKKKINGGG NEWSSSSSS.....Exit poll questions looks much better for Harris in Penn.

    Jesus, will I get any sleep tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Ohio 7% in

    Trump 55% Harris 43%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    RobD said:

    I’m looking forward to Iowa to see if all the hype about that poll was justified. ;)

    Turnout blowing the records, it seems....
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,960
    Bad news, but expected: The three-house-owning millionaire has been re-elected in Vermont.

    Good news, but also expected: One of our better governors, Phil Scott, has also been re-elected. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Scott
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,868
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Western part of the state still voting
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Just looking at a handful o f random Georgia counties Trump seems to be up several points in all of them. Atlanta will need to turnout like it's never turned out before.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Trump 1.01 in Florida lol.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,688
    Philadelphia 110k ballots (over 50% of Mail) will be posted at 8.01PM ET, 1.01AM UK
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292

    BREEAAAKKKINGGG NEWSSSSSS.....Exit poll questions looks much better for Harris in Penn.

    Do you have a link to it? Can't find it, not on CNN site.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    So far Trump is ahead in the US national popular vote with 6 million votes to 4.7 million for Harris
    https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump 1.01 in Florida lol.

    On a knife edge...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    MikeL said:

    Philadelphia 110k ballots (over 50% of Mail) will be posted at 8.01PM ET, 1.01AM UK

    A bit late for a postal vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Campbell county a shift to Harris.

    Which state?!
    Kentucky.
    Campbell now showing as a shift to Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    Still nothing from Georgia's urban counties.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
    I think they have to wait for polls to close in the Panhandle 8pm Eastern (?)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
    I think they have to wait for polls to close in the Panhandle 8pm Eastern (?)
    Yeah, I believe that's correct.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    I’m starting to wonder whether

    Are we expecting the early GA voting data to be complete and dropped in 7 minutes time? Or was that just an approximation?

    I seem to recall @rcs1000 suggesting 1am but wasn't sure if it was definite.

    That’s what I want to know. CNN suggesting 100k mail-in votes in PA about to drop but I need to sleep!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
    I think they have to wait for polls to close in the Panhandle 8pm Eastern (?)
    Yeah they'll call it then. Panhandle just adds to Trump's lead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    Andy_JS said:

    BREEAAAKKKINGGG NEWSSSSSS.....Exit poll questions looks much better for Harris in Penn.

    Do you have a link to it? Can't find it, not on CNN site.
    It was on the live coverage. Democracy most important issue, abortion high up issue, Biden approval not as bad as elsewhere.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
    I think they have to wait for polls to close in the Panhandle 8pm Eastern (?)
    Yeah they'll call it then. Panhandle just adds to Trump's lead.
    Looks like the NY Times Siena poll for Florida is going to be basically spot on: Trump by about 12 percentage points.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    If it is mostly a case of red states getting redder and blue states getting bluer, that is very unfortunate as the polarisation will only be getting worse.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,065
    I'm ready to throw in the towel just after 1am and go to sleep!

    I'm hoping the results released then will have a positive spin...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378

    Bad news, but expected: The three-house-owning millionaire has been re-elected in Vermont.

    Talking of millionaire candidates, has everyone seen Lily Tang Williams berating Jake Sullivan’s wife?

    https://x.com/buttemtmc/status/1852434249003217220
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
    I think they have to wait for polls to close in the Panhandle 8pm Eastern (?)
    Yeah they'll call it then. Panhandle just adds to Trump's lead.
    Looks like the NY Times Siena poll for Florida is going to be basically spot on: Trump by about 12 percentage points.
    That's really bad news.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
    I think they have to wait for polls to close in the Panhandle 8pm Eastern (?)
    Yeah they'll call it then. Panhandle just adds to Trump's lead.
    Looks like the NY Times Siena poll for Florida is going to be basically spot on: Trump by about 12 percentage points.
    That's really bad news.
    Pretty certain Siena had Harris in the White House no?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    @BartholomewRoberts -

    Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,492
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Georgia 8% in

    Trump 60% Harris 38%

    Until we get Fulton/Cobb/DeKalb in, it's a bit meaningless. They account for a massive chunk of the Democratic vote in the State.
    Hence why Trump wanted voting to stop in certain states.

    You just stop when your side is ahead even when there's votes to count, right?
    Interesting bit on "the red mirage" that the votes mostly tabulated in FL and GA are mostly the early voters, with mail in and in person dominating the remainder.

    Not sure if it is enough for Harris though
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292

    Andy_JS said:

    BREEAAAKKKINGGG NEWSSSSSS.....Exit poll questions looks much better for Harris in Penn.

    Do you have a link to it? Can't find it, not on CNN site.
    It was on the live coverage. Democracy most important issue, abortion high up issue, Biden approval not as bad as elsewhere.
    Thanks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    rcs1000 said:

    @BartholomewRoberts -

    Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.

    Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Major projection from Sky News

    Trump wins Florida.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    BREAAKKKKKKINNNGGGGG NEWSSSSS.....CNN Projection....

    Trump wins Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma.

    Harris wins Massachusetts, Maryland, District of Columbia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @BartholomewRoberts -

    Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.

    Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
    'Only just' was how much Biden was ahead by overall. With Trump up elsewhere in the state hopefully the next drop is better.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Polls just closed in Alabama, Connecticutt, DC, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Massachussetts, Maine, Missouri, New Hampshire and New Jersey and Pennsylvania and Texas
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Florida projected for Trump.

    Oklahoma, Missouri and Tennessee also projected for Trump.

    DC and Maryland and Massachusetts projected for Harris

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely Florida is close to being called for the Donald.

    Florida should have been called when Miami-Dade went for Trump.
    I think they have to wait for polls to close in the Panhandle 8pm Eastern (?)
    Yeah they'll call it then. Panhandle just adds to Trump's lead.
    Looks like the NY Times Siena poll for Florida is going to be basically spot on: Trump by about 12 percentage points.
    That's really bad news.
    Pretty certain Siena had Harris in the White House no?
    NYTimes went out on a limb and said Florida would be a big Trump win, but that Harris would perform well in the rustbelt. We'll see.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,492
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @BartholomewRoberts -

    Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.

    Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
    were these postals or early votes?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    HYUFD said:

    Florida projected for Trump.

    Oklahoma, Missouri and Tennessee also projected for Trump.

    DC and Maryland projected for Harris

    Let's see if she can get past 95% in DC.
  • HYUFD said:

    Florida projected for Trump.

    Oklahoma, Missouri and Tennessee also projected for Trump.

    DC and Maryland projected for Harris

    If DC is going for Harris does that mean Marvel is going to Trump?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Feels like a long time from those 'Trump underperforming in rural indiana' posts.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @BartholomewRoberts -

    Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.

    Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
    were these postals or early votes?
    Early votes mostly. But most people vote early in Georgia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Texas 12% in

    Trump 49.3%
    Harris 49.1%
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 660
    Harris ahead in Texas, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Stop the count!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,492
    kle4 said:

    Feels like a long time from those 'Trump underperforming in rural indiana' posts.

    Dems ahead in OH with 25% counted.

    How does that compare with 2020?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Florida projected for Trump.

    Oklahoma, Missouri and Tennessee also projected for Trump.

    DC and Maryland projected for Harris

    Let's see if she can get past 95% in DC.
    Let's see if Larry Hogan can surmount large margin for Harris for POTUS, to win election to US Senate in MD.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    HYUFD said:

    Texas 9% in

    Harris 51%
    Trump 48%

    Now 11% in, lead the same.

    HOWEVER, Dallas is the first place to report, and that is - by Texas standards - pretty Democrat, so wouldn't read too much into it.
  • Stereodog said:

    Harris ahead in Texas, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Stop the count!

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Feels like a long time from those 'Trump underperforming in rural indiana' posts.

    Dems ahead in OH with 25% counted.

    How does that compare with 2020?
    Stop the cun that's enough - Ed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    NJ less than 1% in

    Harris 70%
    Trump 30%
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    edited November 6
    Decision Desk has Trump with a 72% chance of victory OVERALL

    Bloody hell, have the Yanks really done this?!

    THE POLAR BEAR LOOKS AWFUL HUNGRY
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Feels like a long time from those 'Trump underperforming in rural indiana' posts.

    Dems ahead in OH with 25% counted.

    How does that compare with 2020?
    Unless it's the same counties reporting that 25% how would we know?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,331
    edited November 6
    Just a note, in 2020 Trump wasnt big on encouraging early/postal voting and the base did follow that to some extent. This time the GOP has worked hard on it so dont be surprised if the early voter numbers are better for Trump vis a vis 2020
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,447
    Can we ban posting of state vote
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Feels like a long time from those 'Trump underperforming in rural indiana' posts.

    Dems ahead in OH with 25% counted.

    How does that compare with 2020?
    There was a similar mirage in 2020 when it looked like Biden had a chance in Ohio
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    John King indicating that Harris is currently running ahead of Biden in NC. But there’s less than 10% reporting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    New Hampshire 16% in

    Harris 57%
    Trump 42%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    Leon said:

    Decision Desk has Trump with a 72% chance of victory OVERALL

    Bloody hell, have the Yanks really done this?!

    THE POLAR BEAR LOOKS AWFUL HUNGRY

    Who are Decision Desk?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Ohio 21% in

    Harris 55%
    Trump 43%
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,824

    Could be an election of two halves this.

    I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited November 6
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Feels like a long time from those 'Trump underperforming in rural indiana' posts.

    Dems ahead in OH with 25% counted.

    How does that compare with 2020?
    No idea, but based on NYT map & stats, most of the urban counties have reported a third or more of expected vote, while many rurals yet to report anything.

    The great Buckeye State stays red(ass).

    ADDENDUM - wait until some counties start hitting bottom (or close to it) tonight to compare there 2024 with 2020 numbers.
  • viewcode said:

    Could be an election of two halves this.

    I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
    Ah, the Labour 2024 strategy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Leon said:

    Decision Desk has Trump with a 72% chance of victory OVERALL

    Bloody hell, have the Yanks really done this?!

    THE POLAR BEAR LOOKS AWFUL HUNGRY

    Not sure about Decision Desk. Does anyone remember how they did last time?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    viewcode said:

    Could be an election of two halves this.

    I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
    Trump to win the popular vote but lose the EC would be the funniest outcome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781

    Leon said:

    Decision Desk has Trump with a 72% chance of victory OVERALL

    Bloody hell, have the Yanks really done this?!

    THE POLAR BEAR LOOKS AWFUL HUNGRY

    Who are Decision Desk?
    No idea. And their website is quite crap in total

    But someone else linked to them and they have a fun looking wiggly worm probability ticker
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    Pennsylvania 5% in

    Harris 76%
    Trump 23%
  • viewcode said:

    Could be an election of two halves this.

    I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
    Ah, the Labour 2024 strategy.
    She probably wants more than 34 percent of the vote...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Kansas 1% in

    Trump 70%
    Harris 28%
  • Leon said:

    Decision Desk has Trump with a 72% chance of victory OVERALL

    Bloody hell, have the Yanks really done this?!

    THE POLAR BEAR LOOKS AWFUL HUNGRY

    The Polar Bears Eating Faces President. "He said he would eat the Other People's faces"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,292
    Still hoping that I might be within a point or two with my Florida prediction. Would need the remaining votes to be more Harris than so far.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,868
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Decision Desk has Trump with a 72% chance of victory OVERALL

    Bloody hell, have the Yanks really done this?!

    THE POLAR BEAR LOOKS AWFUL HUNGRY

    Not sure about Decision Desk. Does anyone remember how they did last time?
    First to call PA and the election for Biden, IIRC.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    There are quite a few Americans in my Seoul hotel. All having breakfast and wandering around the lobby apparently entirely careless

    Perhaps they are in denial
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls

    So much for independents breaking for Harris if that is right - she cannot afford many hits.

    And it does seem the idea there were lots of people voting Dem the polls weren't picking up was misplaced so far.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,436
    kle4 said:

    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls

    So much for independents breaking for Harris if that is right - she cannot afford many hits.

    And it does seem the idea there were lots of people voting Dem the polls weren't picking up was misplaced so far.
    Well this is also a poll
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,983
    It might be time to ask the question.

    Does Harris have a problem with male voters ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,378
    kle4 said:

    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls

    So much for independents breaking for Harris if that is right - she cannot afford many hits.

    And it does seem the idea there were lots of people voting Dem the polls weren't picking up was misplaced so far.
    Biden won PA independents 52-44 in the 2020 exit poll.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,189

    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls

    I think Kamala might be in a bit of trouble...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,781
    Decision Desk now has Trump back DOWN to 62% chance. lol

    This is going to be nerve shredding for many hours isn’t it?
  • FossFoss Posts: 996
    Big drop in the Decision Desk worm.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,937
    NYTimes Siena nailed the Florida result.

    Given Trump seems to be outperforming pretty much everywhere, I'd say he has to be a 75-80% chance. I've been betting pretty heavily on him on Polymarket.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    kle4 said:

    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls

    So much for independents breaking for Harris if that is right - she cannot afford many hits.

    And it does seem the idea there were lots of people voting Dem the polls weren't picking up was misplaced so far.
    Well this is also a poll
    Hence 'if it is right'. But it's not good to be hoping for it to be wrong.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,612
    Pulpstar said:

    It might be time to ask the question.

    Does Harris have a problem with male voters ?

    Do male voters have a problem with women?

    All looking a bit Trumpy at the moment.

    I wonder if Labour campaigning for Harris was really a good idea for UK PLC.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    BREAKKKKING NEWS....Ted Cruz behind at the moment in Texas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    edited November 6
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Could be an election of two halves this.

    I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
    Trump to win the popular vote but lose the EC would be the funniest outcome.
    As of now Trump is ahead in the national popular vote by 12.3 million to 10.3 million for Harris

    Yet in terms of current state leaders it is as of now Harris 167 and Trump 159 in terms of EC votes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918
    rcs1000 said:

    NYTimes Siena nailed the Florida result.

    Given Trump seems to be outperforming pretty much everywhere, I'd say he has to be a 75-80% chance. I've been betting pretty heavily on him on Polymarket.

    3 Trump elections and they just cannot overcome underestimating his vote share?

    And giving many of us depression in the process.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,492
    Not looking good in the sunbelt for Harris, perhaps better in the Great lakes. I am underwater if Harris below 240 EV. Time for bed though. Not much trading to do now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,369
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Could be an election of two halves this.

    I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
    Trump to win the popular vote but lose the EC would be the funniest outcome.
    As of now Trump is ahead in the national popular vote by 12.3 million to 10.3 million for Harris

    Yet in terms of current state leaders it is as of now Harris 167 and Trump 159 in terms of EC votes
    Meaningless until California is included....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,627
    edited November 6
    rcs1000 said:

    NYTimes Siena nailed the Florida result.

    Given Trump seems to be outperforming pretty much everywhere, I'd say he has to be a 75-80% chance. I've been betting pretty heavily on him on Polymarket.

    Whereabouts are you seeing Trump particularly out performing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,374
    Michigan 4% in

    Harris 62%
    Trump 36%
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 660
    kle4 said:

    NBC reports 50-44 among independents for Donald Trump in PA exit polls

    So much for independents breaking for Harris if that is right - she cannot afford many hits.

    And it does seem the idea there were lots of people voting Dem the polls weren't picking up was misplaced so far.
    What is that figure based on? Is it an exit poll?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,918

    BREAKKKKING NEWS....Ted Cruz behind at the moment in Texas.

    Terrible senators being returned can be handled much better than returning Trump. If only one can happen, make it the former.

    We'll probably get both.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,505
    White men voting 59%-39% for Trump is pretty startling.
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