Just looking at a handful o f random Georgia counties Trump seems to be up several points in all of them. Atlanta will need to turnout like it's never turned out before.
If it is mostly a case of red states getting redder and blue states getting bluer, that is very unfortunate as the polarisation will only be getting worse.
Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.
Until we get Fulton/Cobb/DeKalb in, it's a bit meaningless. They account for a massive chunk of the Democratic vote in the State.
Hence why Trump wanted voting to stop in certain states.
You just stop when your side is ahead even when there's votes to count, right?
Interesting bit on "the red mirage" that the votes mostly tabulated in FL and GA are mostly the early voters, with mail in and in person dominating the remainder.
Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.
Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.
Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
'Only just' was how much Biden was ahead by overall. With Trump up elsewhere in the state hopefully the next drop is better.
Polls just closed in Alabama, Connecticutt, DC, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Massachussetts, Maine, Missouri, New Hampshire and New Jersey and Pennsylvania and Texas
Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.
Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.
Breaking: first Fulton drop. Harris +43. That's slightly - but only just - behind where Biden was in 2020.
were these postals or early votes?
Early votes mostly. But most people vote early in Georgia.
Just a note, in 2020 Trump wasnt big on encouraging early/postal voting and the base did follow that to some extent. This time the GOP has worked hard on it so dont be surprised if the early voter numbers are better for Trump vis a vis 2020
I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
Feels like a long time from those 'Trump underperforming in rural indiana' posts.
Dems ahead in OH with 25% counted.
How does that compare with 2020?
No idea, but based on NYT map & stats, most of the urban counties have reported a third or more of expected vote, while many rurals yet to report anything.
The great Buckeye State stays red(ass).
ADDENDUM - wait until some counties start hitting bottom (or close to it) tonight to compare there 2024 with 2020 numbers.
I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
Trump to win the popular vote but lose the EC would be the funniest outcome.
I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
Ah, the Labour 2024 strategy.
She probably wants more than 34 percent of the vote...
Given Trump seems to be outperforming pretty much everywhere, I'd say he has to be a 75-80% chance. I've been betting pretty heavily on him on Polymarket.
I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
Trump to win the popular vote but lose the EC would be the funniest outcome.
As of now Trump is ahead in the national popular vote by 12.3 million to 10.3 million for Harris
Yet in terms of current state leaders it is as of now Harris 167 and Trump 159 in terms of EC votes
Given Trump seems to be outperforming pretty much everywhere, I'd say he has to be a 75-80% chance. I've been betting pretty heavily on him on Polymarket.
3 Trump elections and they just cannot overcome underestimating his vote share?
Not looking good in the sunbelt for Harris, perhaps better in the Great lakes. I am underwater if Harris below 240 EV. Time for bed though. Not much trading to do now.
I'm thinking that. He's piling on votes where he doesn't need them, but Kamela is retaining (mostly!) the votes where she doesn't. I think she'll lose Georgia but I'm not sure about NC and PA
Trump to win the popular vote but lose the EC would be the funniest outcome.
As of now Trump is ahead in the national popular vote by 12.3 million to 10.3 million for Harris
Yet in terms of current state leaders it is as of now Harris 167 and Trump 159 in terms of EC votes
Given Trump seems to be outperforming pretty much everywhere, I'd say he has to be a 75-80% chance. I've been betting pretty heavily on him on Polymarket.
Whereabouts are you seeing Trump particularly out performing?
Comments
I seem to recall @rcs1000 suggesting 1am but wasn't sure if it was definite.
Trump 55% Harris 43%
Good news, but also expected: One of our better governors, Phil Scott, has also been re-elected. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Scott
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/
I'm hoping the results released then will have a positive spin...
https://x.com/buttemtmc/status/1852434249003217220
Georgia SoS promised all the early votes would be released by 1am. That's 2 minutes away, and there's still nothing from Atlanta, Augusta, Athens or Columbus.
Not sure if it is enough for Harris though
Trump wins Florida.
Trump wins Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma.
Harris wins Massachusetts, Maryland, District of Columbia.
Oklahoma, Missouri and Tennessee also projected for Trump.
DC and Maryland and Massachusetts projected for Harris
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html
Trump 49.3%
Harris 49.1%
How does that compare with 2020?
HOWEVER, Dallas is the first place to report, and that is - by Texas standards - pretty Democrat, so wouldn't read too much into it.
Harris 70%
Trump 30%
Bloody hell, have the Yanks really done this?!
THE POLAR BEAR LOOKS AWFUL HUNGRY
Harris 57%
Trump 42%
Harris 55%
Trump 43%
The great Buckeye State stays red(ass).
ADDENDUM - wait until some counties start hitting bottom (or close to it) tonight to compare there 2024 with 2020 numbers.
But someone else linked to them and they have a fun looking wiggly worm probability ticker
Harris 76%
Trump 23%
Trump 70%
Harris 28%
Perhaps they are in denial
And it does seem the idea there were lots of people voting Dem the polls weren't picking up was misplaced so far.
Does Harris have a problem with male voters ?
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania
This is going to be nerve shredding for many hours isn’t it?
Given Trump seems to be outperforming pretty much everywhere, I'd say he has to be a 75-80% chance. I've been betting pretty heavily on him on Polymarket.
All looking a bit Trumpy at the moment.
I wonder if Labour campaigning for Harris was really a good idea for UK PLC.
Yet in terms of current state leaders it is as of now Harris 167 and Trump 159 in terms of EC votes
And giving many of us depression in the process.
Harris 62%
Trump 36%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html
We'll probably get both.