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What’s in the box? – politicalbetting.com

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  • kenObikenObi Posts: 151
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Very impressed with Rachel Reeves even disregarding the content

    Yep. It was a sound performance, but the devil is always in the detail. Not too much sounding awful to me.

    The cut in employees NI followed by the rise in Employers NI is like a compulsory payrise for everyone at their employers expense when looked at overall.
    Foxy, you might want to spare a thought for those who don't have DB pension scheme's. For us it's awful believe me.
    What was said on pensions or ISAs that bothers you?
    DC pensions coming into estate for IHT purposes. Goodness knows if this is doable given pensions are in trust.
    Can you or Foxy enlighten me - What happens if someone with a DB pension drops dead the day after they turn 68 ?
    The estate gets nothing.

    The widow/er of an NHS pensioner gets a half pension. There's no other death benefit.
    Thats a bit simplistic

    Depends on the scheme and when you took the pension (the question is phrased as if they took it at 68)

    Some public sector schemes have a 'balancing lump sum payment' so you and dependents receive a total of 5 years pension.
    But even for NHS it depends on which scheme exactly how this is calculated.

    A 1/4 pension would also be paid to a dependent child under 23 (again NHS) - and a surprising amount of old dads in the playground these days.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,477
    This is what happens when you make late term abortion illegal.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/josseli-barnica-death-miscarriage-texas-abortion-ban
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,693
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    The big one was the bringing in pension funds to IHT. Massive.

    This will not affect public sector workers with DB schemes.

    So the balance once more from private sector to public.

    Details to come but thoughts include:

    What about inheritance by spouse?

    At what rate - 40%?!

    Death below age 75 too?

    What about tax on withdrawals*?

    * people think that unexhausted pension funds can pass down tax free. This is not true - IHT free yes but withdrawals are taxed at withdrawer's marginal rate of income tax as earned income (assuming deceased was over 75 on death).
    If these unexhausted funds are to be brought into the estate for IHT calculation, does this mean no further tax on withdrawals by the beneficiaries. Or will the fund be taxed twice?

    The logical thing is that the pension wrapper ends on transfer out of the estate. So no further income tax on withdrawals but also no further tax shelter from dividends or CGT.

    Not sure if that is what they will do but think that is fairer than the current system. Pension tax shelters should be for individuals retirements not passing inter generational wealth.
    Indeed, and those of us on DB pensions can not bequeath the pension at all, with or without tax.
    Yeah but that is apples and oranges. Private sector annuities would be the comparison there, which are treated identically aiui.
    Yes, it's people who use drawdown as an inheritance dodge that are brought into line with the rest of us.
    Yep. I predicted that would happen and also I approve of it, although it will hit me (well my children) significantly. It will I think have a big impact on IHT in the South East (as previously discussed and agreed with @hyufd) as it will bring a lot of people into IHT who have medium sized houses and DC pensions who previously would have been well outside of it. For someone like @hyufd with his views on IHT it really isn't good news and I understand why he will not be happy about this.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,064

    eek said:

    Worth mentioning that sole director companies do not get access to Employment Allowance, so this will massively impact on small businesses.

    Hope RR factored that in.

    It seems small businesses have been relatively hammered the most. Which a bit like bashing the bus wankers versus drivers seem wrong way up.

    Lots of media people love a good sole director company....they often very angry when people mess with those e.g. Hammond trying to increase NI on them by a few £100, was like end of the world stuff.
    What have they done with sole director companies?

    £600 extra in employer NI (if only the director is on staff you can't claim the allowance) and I think that's it...
    Whatever! I don’t take any income from mine.
    I would get advice on that - everytime I've looked it's best to pull a £1000 a month salary from the company as it was the most efficient way of extracting money from a company.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,843
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Very impressed with Rachel Reeves even disregarding the content

    Yep. It was a sound performance, but the devil is always in the detail. Not too much sounding awful to me.

    The cut in employees NI followed by the rise in Employers NI is like a compulsory payrise for everyone at their employers expense when looked at overall.
    Foxy, you might want to spare a thought for those who don't have DB pension scheme's. For us it's awful believe me.
    What was said on pensions or ISAs that bothers you?
    DC pensions coming into estate for IHT purposes. Goodness knows if this is doable given pensions are in trust.
    Can you or Foxy enlighten me - What happens if someone with a DB pension drops dead the day after they turn 68 ?
    The estate gets nothing.

    The widow/er of an NHS pensioner gets a half pension. There's no other death benefit.
    That’s a pretty nice benefit, to be fair.
    Yes, and it was not cheap either. Both me and my employer paid for this over many years.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,064

    I've been busy, but I take it there has been nothing on increasing productivity in the public sector or any spending restraint in the public sector?

    There does appear to be some spending restraint and at least by not mentioning productivity we aren't working on false hope of completely fictional productivity improvements..
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,121
    "UK rail operator admits it still uses fax machines to contact train crew"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b93e647-2a8b-4fb4-831d-e27adf4db5f8
  • glwglw Posts: 9,869

    OBR say budget will:

    Increase inflation
    Increase interest rates
    Increase gilt rates
    Reduce growth

    So the exact opposite of what the government wants. Genius bit of work by Reeves then.
  • Worth mentioning that sole director companies do not get access to Employment Allowance, so this will massively impact on small businesses.

    Hope RR factored that in.

    Appoint a second director.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK rail operator admits it still uses fax machines to contact train crew"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b93e647-2a8b-4fb4-831d-e27adf4db5f8

    But not during breaks....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,064
    edited October 30

    Worth mentioning that sole director companies do not get access to Employment Allowance, so this will massively impact on small businesses.

    Hope RR factored that in.

    Appoint a second director.
    You don't need a second director you need a second employee who is being paid..
  • eekeek Posts: 28,064
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK rail operator admits it still uses fax machines to contact train crew"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b93e647-2a8b-4fb4-831d-e27adf4db5f8

    Could be worse - it's also why Avanti staff do not inspect tickets on phones....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,281

    MaxPB said:

    Sterling rising, this is quite an inflationary budget so I expect interest rates will stay higher for longer.

    Great news for savers.
    Bad news for exporters.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,604
    edited October 30
    Nigelb said:
    I thought he was backing Reeves' budget until I clicked through!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    This government hates me.
    For some people every government hates them, consider yourself lucky.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784

    Covid corruption commissioner. Hello...

    This is a highly political speech.

    I think she's positioning herself nicely if SKS falls.
    She’s good. Impressive delivery
    It’s hardly taxing work
    Deserves more likes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,843
    5 Yr up to 4.2%, Martin Lewis is going to be screaming at people this evening to lock their mortgage in now if they're in a renewal period lol.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,604
    Nigelb said:

    This is what happens when you make late term abortion illegal.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/josseli-barnica-death-miscarriage-texas-abortion-ban

    That's insane. Absolutely insane.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784

    Home Office and Transport are the big departmental losers. Real-terms cut of 2.7% and 2.5% in spending, while Justice is up 5.6%.

    On home office versus justice that seems the right thing to do.

    What's the point of catching criminals if we can't prosecute them in a timely fashion and lock them up?

    Getting the justice system fixed is something most on left and right surely can agree on?
    No, because otherwise it'd not be in its current woeful state.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,477
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:
    I thought he was backing Reeves' budget until I clicked through!
    He's waiting for the details to be published before weighing in.
    I suspect he's not a massive fan.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,944

    Tax burden to be highest since records began:

    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1851627329602113967

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

    Hopefully now the Tories are in a well deserved stint of Opposition they can think through a genuine alternative. As they were doing the same anyway.
    They won't until they have a leader who, like Oliver Cromwell or Margaret Thatcher, knows what he fights for and loves what he knows.
  • Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Very impressed with Rachel Reeves even disregarding the content

    Yep. It was a sound performance, but the devil is always in the detail. Not too much sounding awful to me.

    The cut in employees NI followed by the rise in Employers NI is like a compulsory payrise for everyone at their employers expense when looked at overall.
    Foxy, you might want to spare a thought for those who don't have DB pension scheme's. For us it's awful believe me.
    What was said on pensions or ISAs that bothers you?
    DC pensions coming into estate for IHT purposes. Goodness knows if this is doable given pensions are in trust.
    It's doable, but I note they've given themselves over 2 years to thrash out how it works, as a former tax lawyer I think they'll need that. Would have been better just to subject funds on death pre 75 to income tax the same as post 75.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    edited October 30
    All this massive borrowing and spending, yet projected anaemic growth and inflation above its 2% target.

    No good times ahead. Danger is back for more tax rises, more borrowing, if all the tax rises don't raise the projected revenue.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,066
    Nigelb said:
    Good for him.

    Put in those terms, it's not difficult, is it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784

    OBR say budget will:

    Increase inflation
    Increase interest rates
    Increase gilt rates
    Reduce growth

    That's a rough set of comments.

    Are we...screwed?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767

    Worth mentioning that sole director companies do not get access to Employment Allowance, so this will massively impact on small businesses.

    Hope RR factored that in.

    Appoint a second director.
    You have to pay them over the secondary threashold as well.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,604
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK rail operator admits it still uses fax machines to contact train crew"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b93e647-2a8b-4fb4-831d-e27adf4db5f8

    Not a big surprise to click through and see that it's Northern :disappointed:
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,586
    Stamp duty second home surcharge increase welcome here. Would have also liked an additional increase for non resident buyers too but its progress.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,569
    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "UK rail operator admits it still uses fax machines to contact train crew"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b93e647-2a8b-4fb4-831d-e27adf4db5f8

    Not a big surprise to click through and see that it's Northern :disappointed:
    Managed to do Barnetby to Gainsborough southbound yesterday (5 years after doing the journey northbound only!).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    edited October 30
    Did Reeves stick not fix the bloody cliff edges at £50k and £100k?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,160

    Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    The Newcastle Metro is overdue an extension but there's no shovel ready scheme on the table AIUI
    Kim McGuinness has already said she is making it a priority.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    kjh said:

    Have any of you listened to 'The Coming Storm' on Radio 4. It sounded interesting and may listen on BBC Sounds. Would appreciate feedback.

    One comment that I had never heard before was a reference by some MAGA people referring to America as 'A Republic, not a Democracy' as if they are mutually exclusive. That is new to me, if true.

    I listened to part 1,now listening to part 2. I'm enjoying it. It's somewhat sympathetic to its subject, at least not portraying them as a bunch of whackjobs...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,586

    I've been busy, but I take it there has been nothing on increasing productivity in the public sector or any spending restraint in the public sector?

    Making it more expensive for big private sector business to employ people should lead to pay restraint in the public sector. Should (other things being equal) rather than will.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,073

    OBR say budget will:

    Increase inflation
    Increase interest rates
    Increase gilt rates
    Reduce growth

    I thought increasing taxation reduced consumer demand and so was counter-inflationary?
    She's increasing spending by more than she's increasing taxation, so increasing borrowing, so inflationary.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    It can’t be bargained with, it can’t be reasoned with.
    The MAGA Republican Party that is.

    https://x.com/schwarzenegger/status/1851627802027758005?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,023
    Some lucky people can react to the budget by voting in local by-elections tomorrow. A mixed lot - we have Lab defences in Salford and Wolverhampton; Con defences in Hampshire and Westmoreland; a LD defence in Stockport, a Green defence in Charnwood, and an Ind defence in Rochdale.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,477
    Seems a bit unlikely for a couple of the states, but interesting set of polls.

    Presidential Polling Leads:

    MN: D +10
    VA: D +8
    NH: D +7
    MI: D +5
    NV: D +4
    WI: D +3
    PA: D +1

    NC: R +2
    TX: R +4
    AZ: R +4
    GA: R +5
    FL: R +6
    OH: R +7

    CCES/YouGov / October 25, 2024

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851397569206947900
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,693
    edited October 30
    I think it is nuts to comment on the budget at this stage and silly that Rishi has to, but I am going to. It needs a few days for stuff to unravel.

    I'm pleased with myself that the DC pension pot thing happened, as I predicted that. Will seriously cost my children though when I die. Long way off hopefully and I'm doing my best to spend it.

    I am pleased with the PO and Blood Scandal payments are being met (if they actually do) and more hopeful for a similar campaign that I am supporting.

    Shocked by the lack of fuel duty increase. Politics?

    The draught beer one is politics as well because people will expect a 1p off their pint, but I suspect they will go up because of the NI increases.

    The employer NI is as expected, but also there is the big reduction in the threshold which I didn't expect. This must be a blow to businesses but the money had to come from Income Tax, NI or Vat and they had painted themselves into this corner. So be it.

    I predicted that there would be an increase in the PA (not the other bands) for next year. Got that wrong and 28/29 is a long way off. I suspect that they can make the same announcement next year making it 27/28 and so forth.

    I got confused by the EV announcement re road tax and cynically I interpreted the good news announcement for EV owners to be bad news for ICE car owners without being said. Zoned out at that point.

    I thought RR performance to be very good. Presented big tax rises surprisingly well.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,073

    Home Office and Transport are the big departmental losers. Real-terms cut of 2.7% and 2.5% in spending, while Justice is up 5.6%.

    On home office versus justice that seems the right thing to do.

    What's the point of catching criminals if we can't prosecute them in a timely fashion and lock them up?

    Getting the justice system fixed is something most on left and right surely can agree on?
    Yes. And if you spend more on prisons to keep criminals locked up then you don't need so many police officers chasing after them.

    They were rather large changes that stood out. Thought they would be interesting. Sometimes one mentions things neutrally and neither to criticise or celebrate.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,309
    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "UK rail operator admits it still uses fax machines to contact train crew"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b93e647-2a8b-4fb4-831d-e27adf4db5f8

    Not a big surprise to click through and see that it's Northern :disappointed:
    Don't blame me!
  • MaxPB said:

    Sterling rising, this is quite an inflationary budget so I expect interest rates will stay higher for longer.

    Great news for savers.
    Bad news for exporters.
    Wait until you hear about Trump’s tariffs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,357
    eek said:

    Worth mentioning that sole director companies do not get access to Employment Allowance, so this will massively impact on small businesses.

    Hope RR factored that in.

    Appoint a second director.
    You don't need a second director you need a second employee who is being paid..
    Who is being paid above the primary NI threshold I think.

    So say a cafe owner/director who pays a lot of very part time people wont get it if I have understood it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    kamski said:

    kjh said:

    Have any of you listened to 'The Coming Storm' on Radio 4. It sounded interesting and may listen on BBC Sounds. Would appreciate feedback.

    One comment that I had never heard before was a reference by some MAGA people referring to America as 'A Republic, not a Democracy' as if they are mutually exclusive. That is new to me, if true.

    I listened to part 1,now listening to part 2. I'm enjoying it. It's somewhat sympathetic to its subject, at least not portraying them as a bunch of whackjobs...
    Never see a photo of Gabriel Gatehouse.
    He’s a middle aged man with a top knot which ruins anything he says.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767

    Did Reeves stick not fix the bloody cliff edges at £50k and £100k?

    Of course not, it makes too much money.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,869
    edited October 30
    So if the OBR are good enough to validate the black hole claim, then they ought to be good enough for us to say Reeves has produced a budget that will reduce growth.

    I have to agree, I can't see where growth comes from in the budget. Labour have been banging on about growth for years, and yet here we are and nobody really has a clue what to do.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    Other big surprise is that no increase in gambling duty - betting firm shares going through the roof this afternoon!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,073

    I've been busy, but I take it there has been nothing on increasing productivity in the public sector or any spending restraint in the public sector?

    She said something about 2% efficiency targets for departments, but I haven't looked at the detail of that to see what it means beyond a soundbite.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,780
    glw said:

    So if the OBR are good enough to validate the black hole claim, then they ought to be good enough for us to say Reeves has produced a budget that will reduce growth.

    I have to agree, I can't see where growth comes from in the budget. Labour have been banging on about growth for years, and yet here we are and nobody really has a clue what to do.

    The OBR have already said that the budget will weaken growth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,217
    kjh said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    The big one was the bringing in pension funds to IHT. Massive.

    This will not affect public sector workers with DB schemes.

    So the balance once more from private sector to public.

    Details to come but thoughts include:

    What about inheritance by spouse?

    At what rate - 40%?!

    Death below age 75 too?

    What about tax on withdrawals*?

    * people think that unexhausted pension funds can pass down tax free. This is not true - IHT free yes but withdrawals are taxed at withdrawer's marginal rate of income tax as earned income (assuming deceased was over 75 on death).
    If these unexhausted funds are to be brought into the estate for IHT calculation, does this mean no further tax on withdrawals by the beneficiaries. Or will the fund be taxed twice?

    The logical thing is that the pension wrapper ends on transfer out of the estate. So no further income tax on withdrawals but also no further tax shelter from dividends or CGT.

    Not sure if that is what they will do but think that is fairer than the current system. Pension tax shelters should be for individuals retirements not passing inter generational wealth.
    Indeed, and those of us on DB pensions can not bequeath the pension at all, with or without tax.
    Yeah but that is apples and oranges. Private sector annuities would be the comparison there, which are treated identically aiui.
    Yes, it's people who use drawdown as an inheritance dodge that are brought into line with the rest of us.
    Yep. I predicted that would happen and also I approve of it, although it will hit me (well my children) significantly. It will I think have a big impact on IHT in the South East (as previously discussed and agreed with @hyufd) as it will bring a lot of people into IHT who have medium sized houses and DC pensions who previously would have been well outside of it. For someone like @hyufd with his views on IHT it really isn't good news and I understand why he will not be happy about this.
    It won't actually really hit me at all, it will hit a lot of family farms and family businesses around here hard though
  • eekeek Posts: 28,064
    RobD said:

    glw said:

    So if the OBR are good enough to validate the black hole claim, then they ought to be good enough for us to say Reeves has produced a budget that will reduce growth.

    I have to agree, I can't see where growth comes from in the budget. Labour have been banging on about growth for years, and yet here we are and nobody really has a clue what to do.

    The OBR have already said that the budget will weaken growth.
    Anything the Government could do would have weakened growth - the only way to have not seriously impacted growth was to put the tax on employee NI or income tax where the result is slightly mitigated...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,869
    RobD said:

    glw said:

    So if the OBR are good enough to validate the black hole claim, then they ought to be good enough for us to say Reeves has produced a budget that will reduce growth.

    I have to agree, I can't see where growth comes from in the budget. Labour have been banging on about growth for years, and yet here we are and nobody really has a clue what to do.

    The OBR have already said that the budget will weaken growth.
    I know, and seeing as Labour think the OBR are right about the black hole I'm going to enjoy listening to Labour twerps explaining why the OBR is wrong about growth.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,604
    edited October 30

    I've been busy, but I take it there has been nothing on increasing productivity in the public sector or any spending restraint in the public sector?

    She said something about 2% efficiency targets for departments, but I haven't looked at the detail of that to see what it means beyond a soundbite.
    I had hoped our government departments were more than 2% efficient! :open_mouth:
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,705
    Do we have the borrowing forecasts?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,604

    Selebian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "UK rail operator admits it still uses fax machines to contact train crew"

    https://www.ft.com/content/3b93e647-2a8b-4fb4-831d-e27adf4db5f8

    Not a big surprise to click through and see that it's Northern :disappointed:
    Don't blame me!
    It will be some time until Northern Rail have Artificial Intelligence - or any intelligence - so there's limited risk of confusion :wink:

    You're very good by the way, pass the Turing Test no problem.
  • FossFoss Posts: 988

    Do we have the borrowing forecasts?

    Much higher.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,767
    If I was able to, I would emigrate. Green Hydrogen is stupid. It costs more energy to produce than it does when consumed. I don't see why I should like a Government when it does things that a fifteen-year-old with a Physics GCSE can tell are stupid. This is genuinely depressing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    edited October 30
    The Office for Budget Responsibility says the increaser in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) will have a negative impact on pay. It says:

    We expect real earnings to grow 2.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2025, 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points higher than in March, respectively. Real earnings then stall in 2026 and 2027 as firms rebuild margins and pass on the cost of higher employer NICs. This means we do not expect real wages to resume growing in line with productivity (around 1 per cent a year) until beyond the forecast horizon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,780
    Foss said:

    Do we have the borrowing forecasts?

    Much higher.
    Ah, bum. One day I’d like to see a budget surplus.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,604
    RobD said:

    glw said:

    So if the OBR are good enough to validate the black hole claim, then they ought to be good enough for us to say Reeves has produced a budget that will reduce growth.

    I have to agree, I can't see where growth comes from in the budget. Labour have been banging on about growth for years, and yet here we are and nobody really has a clue what to do.

    The OBR have already said that the budget will weaken growth.
    An to think we laughed at Truss when she called Labour part of the anti-growth coalition :cry:
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    Selebian said:

    I've been busy, but I take it there has been nothing on increasing productivity in the public sector or any spending restraint in the public sector?

    She said something about 2% efficiency targets for departments, but I haven't looked at the detail of that to see what it means beyond a soundbite.
    I had hoped our government departments were more than 2% efficient! :open_mouth:
    HMRC maybe not - still not getting anyway getting my refund despite them accepting my evidence of pension payments
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,843
    Foss said:

    Do we have the borrowing forecasts?

    Much higher.
    Interesting, she was reading out the figures like they were an improvement lol. Like one of those cold callers promising you a discount on your energy...
  • kjh said:

    I think it is nuts to comment on the budget at this stage and silly that Rishi has to, but I am going to. It needs a few days for stuff to unravel.

    I'm pleased with myself that the DC pension pot thing happened, as I predicted that. Will seriously cost my children though when I die. Long way off hopefully and I'm doing my best to spend it.

    I am pleased with the PO and Blood Scandal payments are being met (if they actually do) and more hopeful for a similar campaign that I am supporting.

    Shocked by the lack of fuel duty increase. Politics?

    The draught beer one is politics as well because people will expect a 1p off their pint, but I suspect they will go up because of the NI increases.

    The employer NI is as expected, but also there is the big reduction in the threshold which I didn't expect. This must be a blow to businesses but the money had to come from Income Tax, NI or Vat and they had painted themselves into this corner. So be it.

    I predicted that there would be an increase in the PA (not the other bands) for next year. Got that wrong and 28/29 is a long way off. I suspect that they can make the same announcement next year making it 27/28 and so forth.

    I got confused by the EV announcement re road tax and cynically I interpreted the good news announcement for EV owners to be bad news for ICE car owners without being said. Zoned out at that point.

    I thought RR performance to be very good. Presented big tax rises surprisingly well.

    I'm not sure why some people here are surprised by the lack of fuel duty rise.

    It's not politics, it's economics that says its a horrendous tax to rise.

    It's massively regressive. It's always been regressive, the poorest have always spent a higher proportion of their income on fuel duty than the wealthier have, but now that those with an EV can opt out of paying it entirely that disparity has become a gulf.

    And it's a pointless tax to rise. It raises no money in the long term. If you want a balanced budget in the future why raise a tax that won't exist in the future?

    HMRC needs to detox from getting money from drivers and rebalance away from it, simply ensuring drivers pay for roads and that's it.

    Raising fuel duty is like a problem gambler chasing their losses.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,073

    Stamp duty second home surcharge increase welcome here. Would have also liked an additional increase for non resident buyers too but its progress.

    I thought it was a bit harsh that it applies from tomorrow. A few people having to scrabble around today to find the extra money to complete their purchase tomorrow.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,477
    The Neptune Beach Police Department is set to hold a media briefing following the arrest of a man in connection with an “armed disturbance” that occurred at the Beaches Branch Library, a polling location for the 2024 General Election.
    https://x.com/ActionNewsJax/status/1851464793359634929

    Trump supporter.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,843

    Selebian said:

    I've been busy, but I take it there has been nothing on increasing productivity in the public sector or any spending restraint in the public sector?

    She said something about 2% efficiency targets for departments, but I haven't looked at the detail of that to see what it means beyond a soundbite.
    I had hoped our government departments were more than 2% efficient! :open_mouth:
    HMRC maybe not - still not getting anyway getting my refund despite them accepting my evidence of pension payments
    You should get more interest when they cough up - stat interest increase works both ways.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,586

    Stamp duty second home surcharge increase welcome here. Would have also liked an additional increase for non resident buyers too but its progress.

    I thought it was a bit harsh that it applies from tomorrow. A few people having to scrabble around today to find the extra money to complete their purchase tomorrow.
    Yeah, I'd have given them til Friday. Can't imagine many completions lined up for the rest of this week and idiot tax would apply I'm afraid.
  • UK 10 year gilts may end on a year to date high, getting close.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767

    Other big surprise is that no increase in gambling duty - betting firm shares going through the roof this afternoon!

    I wonder why....

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/28/tory-betting-scandal-labour-gambling-industry-regulation

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,742

    The Office for Budget Responsibility says the increaser in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) will have a negative impact on pay. It says:

    We expect real earnings to grow 2.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2025, 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points higher than in March, respectively. Real earnings then stall in 2026 and 2027 as firms rebuild margins and pass on the cost of higher employer NICs. This means we do not expect real wages to resume growing in line with productivity (around 1 per cent a year) until beyond the forecast horizon.

    Erk.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    edited October 30
    viewcode said:

    If I was able to, I would emigrate. Green Hydrogen is stupid. It costs more energy to produce than it does when consumed. I don't see why I should like a Government when it does things that a fifteen-year-old with a Physics GCSE can tell are stupid. This is genuinely depressing.

    And the government are going to splash billions on building carbon capture facilities....not just the we will pay private companies up to £22bn if they do it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,843
    edited October 30

    UK 10 year gilts may end on a year to date high, getting close.

    The markets seemed to like it when she was talking and then not so much when all the traders looked at the guts of the budget after lunch.
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility says the increaser in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) will have a negative impact on pay. It says:

    We expect real earnings to grow 2.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2025, 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points higher than in March, respectively. Real earnings then stall in 2026 and 2027 as firms rebuild margins and pass on the cost of higher employer NICs. This means we do not expect real wages to resume growing in line with productivity (around 1 per cent a year) until beyond the forecast horizon.

    No shit Sherlock.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    edited October 30

    The Office for Budget Responsibility says the increaser in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) will have a negative impact on pay. It says:

    We expect real earnings to grow 2.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2025, 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points higher than in March, respectively. Real earnings then stall in 2026 and 2027 as firms rebuild margins and pass on the cost of higher employer NICs. This means we do not expect real wages to resume growing in line with productivity (around 1 per cent a year) until beyond the forecast horizon.

    No shit Sherlock.
    Well Foxy was saying down thread, all these changes, its going to be enforced payrise for us all...spot the person who works in the public sector.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,281

    Nigelb said:
    Good for him.

    Put in those terms, it's not difficult, is it?
    "Love policy and ignore politics" is a good line but it's the central delusion of sensible centrism to think that everything can be depoliticised.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,742
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    glw said:

    So if the OBR are good enough to validate the black hole claim, then they ought to be good enough for us to say Reeves has produced a budget that will reduce growth.

    I have to agree, I can't see where growth comes from in the budget. Labour have been banging on about growth for years, and yet here we are and nobody really has a clue what to do.

    The OBR have already said that the budget will weaken growth.
    Anything the Government could do would have weakened growth - the only way to have not seriously impacted growth was to put the tax on employee NI or income tax where the result is slightly mitigated...
    They’ve seriously boxed themselves in on income tax now. A shame, because there are things that could be changed that would be a real benefit.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,869
    Pulpstar said:

    UK 10 year gilts may end on a year to date high, getting close.

    The markets seemed to like it when she was talking and then not so much when all the traders looked at the guts of the budget after lunch.
    I suspect that once people have had proper gander this budget is going to stink.
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility says the increaser in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) will have a negative impact on pay. It says:

    We expect real earnings to grow 2.4 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2025, 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points higher than in March, respectively. Real earnings then stall in 2026 and 2027 as firms rebuild margins and pass on the cost of higher employer NICs. This means we do not expect real wages to resume growing in line with productivity (around 1 per cent a year) until beyond the forecast horizon.

    No shit Sherlock.
    Well Foxy was saying down thread, all these changes, its going to be enforced payrise for us all...spot the person who works in the public sector.
    Probably true for Foxy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 30
    Watching the Tory Chief Secretary to the Treasury being eviscerated on the BBC could be blamed on having a very small talent pool to call on. But not a good showing particularly after a steely performance by the Labour one.

    If this is the start of the Labour fight back after a shaky start it couldn't have gone much better. All the vox pops liked it.

    Rachel Reeves presentation was as good as I've seen from a Chancellor and it looks like there's now only one show in town.

    The Tories better hope for a flotilla of black swans or it could be a very long 5 years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,843

    UK 10 year gilts may end on a year to date high, getting close.

    4.4% ! Late swing
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    The Newcastle Metro is overdue an extension but there's no shovel ready scheme on the table AIUI
    Kim McGuinness has already said she is making it a priority.
    She should do. There are vast swathes of west Newcastle and the south west of the city-region untouched by it. It's a pretty good network but could be so much better.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is what happens when you make late term abortion illegal.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/josseli-barnica-death-miscarriage-texas-abortion-ban

    That's insane. Absolutely insane.
    That's why Kamal Harris had a rally in Texas the other day.

    Message to swing states: YOU could end up like THIS.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,586
    I look forward to the Telegraph fully embracing the budget after virtually none of their 739 projected tax increases actually happened.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,545
    Nigelb said:
    Powerful stuff. 5 million followers.
    A lot of registered Republicans will be voting for Harris. It all adds up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    edited October 30
    Roger said:

    Watching the Tory Chief Secretary to the Treasury being eviscerated could be blamed on having a very small talent pool to call on. But not a good showung particularly after a steely performance by the Labour one.

    If this is the start of the fight back after a shaky start it couldn't have gone much better. All the vox pops liked it.

    Rachel Reeves presentation was as good as I've seen from a Chancellor and it looks like there's now only one show in town.

    The Tories better hope for a flotilla of black swans or it could be a very long 5 years.

    The predictions are for absolute piss poor growth now with stagnate wages and higher inflation. It won't take much headwinds for that to be problematic. Especially given the mantra of the new government was supposed to be growth, growth, growth.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420

    OBR say budget will:

    Increase inflation
    Increase interest rates
    Increase gilt rates
    Reduce growth

    I thought increasing taxation reduced consumer demand and so was counter-inflationary?
    She's increasing spending by more than she's increasing taxation, so increasing borrowing, so inflationary.
    The inflation forecast is around the 2% mark for each year of the forecast period, so on or near target.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,586

    Roger said:

    Watching the Tory Chief Secretary to the Treasury being eviscerated could be blamed on having a very small talent pool to call on. But not a good showung particularly after a steely performance by the Labour one.

    If this is the start of the fight back after a shaky start it couldn't have gone much better. All the vox pops liked it.

    Rachel Reeves presentation was as good as I've seen from a Chancellor and it looks like there's now only one show in town.

    The Tories better hope for a flotilla of black swans or it could be a very long 5 years.

    The predictions are for absolute piss poor growth now. It won't take much headwinds for that to be problematic.
    The Tories and Labour arguing over fractions of a percent of growth (well not growth, but forecast growth) over 5 years is completely pathetic from both.
  • Roger said:

    Watching the Tory Chief Secretary to the Treasury being eviscerated could be blamed on having a very small talent pool to call on. But not a good showung particularly after a steely performance by the Labour one.

    If this is the start of the fight back after a shaky start it couldn't have gone much better. All the vox pops liked it.

    Rachel Reeves presentation was as good as I've seen from a Chancellor and it looks like there's now only one show in town.

    The Tories better hope for a flotilla of black swans or it could be a very long 5 years.

    The predictions are for absolute piss poor growth now. It won't take much headwinds for that to be problematic. Especially the mantra of the new government was supposed to be growth, growth, growth.
    Our team at work are poring over the budget details.

    Précis - We’re going to have piss weak growth for a few years which will end up in the toilet if Trump has his way with tariffs.

    Also if Mr Putin, The Ayatollahs, and Israel do not behave.
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Has anything happened with inheritance tax?

    Freezing threshold, but they also dragged in some businesses that used to be exempt. It could have a big impact on agriculture.
    More likely it will have an impact on those who 'invest' in farmland to evade taxes while not actually being farmers.
    Plenty of family farms and family businesses with estates and assets over £1 million also hammered by Reeves
    If they have £1m of assets then they’re rich and can afford to contribute more to the exchequer. Labour doing what Labour is supposed to do.
    This was widely expected. I had thought they might be cleverer than that, but no.

    The biggest question is do the Lib Dems support this or not ? For twenty years Farron has run with the horses and gone with the hounds so to speak.

    It makes easy policy for both the Conservatives and Reform at the May 2028 Election. Abolish IHT. Personally I need to concentrate on not dying before this goverment is kicked out, as it will be.

    Removing business rates from public schools will then come on to how do you value something which cannot be sold ?

    As you all know I did not and never would vote for this lot or their Lib Dem ersatz clones. But the fact sufficient numbers thought they were fit to be elected in preference to Boris, with or without a wadge of cake is the big problem my lot has to sort out and PDQ
  • Roger said:

    Watching the Tory Chief Secretary to the Treasury being eviscerated on the BBC could be blamed on having a very small talent pool to call on. But not a good showing particularly after a steely performance by the Labour one.

    If this is the start of the Labour fight back after a shaky start it couldn't have gone much better. All the vox pops liked it.

    Rachel Reeves presentation was as good as I've seen from a Chancellor and it looks like there's now only one show in town.

    The Tories better hope for a flotilla of black swans or it could be a very long 5 years.

    Maybe let the dust settle and listen to the OBR and IFS for independent views
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,843

    I look forward to the Telegraph fully embracing the budget after virtually none of their 739 projected tax increases actually happened.

    The spending is being paid for by increased borrowing costs instead.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,946
    edited October 30
    Pulpstar said:

    The retail politics side of the budget wasn't bad - overall it'll all depend on whether the economy grows and by how much by 2028/29.

    Which in turn depends mainly on global factors. As it always does.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,370
    edited October 30

    I look forward to the Telegraph fully embracing the budget after virtually none of their 739 projected tax increases actually happened.

    But still managed to increase the tax take to all time highs.....Rather than 739 tax rises, just getting a few absolute massives ones and lots of new borrowing.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    Seems the mood music on the budget is getting worse as it's sinking in.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420
    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:
    Powerful stuff. 5 million followers.
    A lot of registered Republicans will be voting for Harris. It all adds up.
    It's smart framing from Arnie. He's not gushing about Kamala or indeed the Democrats but "I'm an American before I'm a Republican" is a great line. And he makes the case well.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,295

    kjh said:

    I think it is nuts to comment on the budget at this stage and silly that Rishi has to, but I am going to. It needs a few days for stuff to unravel.

    I'm pleased with myself that the DC pension pot thing happened, as I predicted that. Will seriously cost my children though when I die. Long way off hopefully and I'm doing my best to spend it.

    I am pleased with the PO and Blood Scandal payments are being met (if they actually do) and more hopeful for a similar campaign that I am supporting.

    Shocked by the lack of fuel duty increase. Politics?

    The draught beer one is politics as well because people will expect a 1p off their pint, but I suspect they will go up because of the NI increases.

    The employer NI is as expected, but also there is the big reduction in the threshold which I didn't expect. This must be a blow to businesses but the money had to come from Income Tax, NI or Vat and they had painted themselves into this corner. So be it.

    I predicted that there would be an increase in the PA (not the other bands) for next year. Got that wrong and 28/29 is a long way off. I suspect that they can make the same announcement next year making it 27/28 and so forth.

    I got confused by the EV announcement re road tax and cynically I interpreted the good news announcement for EV owners to be bad news for ICE car owners without being said. Zoned out at that point.

    I thought RR performance to be very good. Presented big tax rises surprisingly well.

    I'm not sure why some people here are surprised by the lack of fuel duty rise.

    It's not politics, it's economics that says its a horrendous tax to rise.

    It's massively regressive. It's always been regressive, the poorest have always spent a higher proportion of their income on fuel duty than the wealthier have, but now that those with an EV can opt out of paying it entirely that disparity has become a gulf.

    And it's a pointless tax to rise. It raises no money in the long term. If you want a balanced budget in the future why raise a tax that won't exist in the future?

    HMRC needs to detox from getting money from drivers and rebalance away from it, simply ensuring drivers pay for roads and that's it.

    Raising fuel duty is like a problem gambler chasing their losses.
    It also feeds into inflation like no other tax the government can raise.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523
    Absolutely huge increase in borrowing and a lower growth forecast. Wtf are they doing, surely a big fiscal stimulus like this should increase the growth rate not lower it.
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