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What’s in the box? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,582
    viewcode said:

    moonshine said:

    Fascinating story on the Mayan city found with LiDAR. Wonder what else will be found once this tech really gets going on a mass scale.

    (whumm, whumm noise underground intensifies)
    "frying bacon" sound, Shirley?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589
    Here we go. It will be like listening to my vacuum cleaner for an hour or so.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589

    FRANCOIS

    I rarely listen to PMQ's

    What a berk.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    Maybe 15-20 minutes of windy rhetoric until we get to any substance..
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    The F*ck Business Budget ?

    The corporate tax roadmap will be one of the bright spots and has been well consulted. Aside from possible employer NI rises this one is looking pretty decent for companies, all things considered.
    Is it ?
    Well over half the anticipated tax increases fall on employers - and the well above inflation minimum wage rise will also drive up employment costs.
    Businesses employing few people will do fairly well; the rest get something of a caning.

    Whether that all works out depends a lot on what's done on the spending side.
    Obviously teh workers will pay for it , private companies do not have a magic money treee like the public sector. Means either employing less people or no wage rises till they make up the losses. Economics for idiots.
    Business employing fewer people and increasing efficiency is actually a good thing for our economy if you look at it from a macro perspective.
    So long as:

    1. Efficiency actually rises, rather than the company contracting or failing to expand overall.
    2. The changes don’t lead to an increase in unemployment.
    There is huge unfulfilled demand for staff in several sectors, including health care, care
    and construction. Now the reality is a lot of
    people don't want those jobs but I think we
    are a long way from significant
    unemployment regardless.
    NHS employment is at an all time high (I believe) - 1.3M FTE and up 30% since 2009.

    https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/data-and-charts/nhs-workforce-nutshell#:~:text=The NHS in England currently,time equivalent (FTE) basis.

    Have we all got that much sicker over time? What are all those people doing?

    Dealing with us getting older.
    And older, and older.
    It's a contributory factor, but a small one. This is one of the few things I know quite a bit about.

    Most assessments of UK health spending find that increased chronic conditions and better technology (keeping people alive) are the reasons it's increasing so much. England's demographics are actually quite balanced due to immigration, yet their spending has increased just as much as ours has in Scotland.

    Most demographic-linked spending in the UK is made in the last 12 months or so of life. You-only-die-once, so that doesn't matter too much except in the 2030s when we have lots of Boomers reaching their 80s. But a small blip, relatively.
    That's disingenuous to suggest most are made in the last 12 months without accounting for when the remainder of the expenditure is made.

    Exclude the last 12 months and the remaining roughly 50% is not spread evenly across the rest of your life. Apart from childbirth, which on average is now happening less than once per adult, it's vastly disproportionately in your later years.

    That later years expenditure is happening in increasing amounts on top of, not instead of, last 12 month expenditure.
    That's true. The point is that that relatively minor changes to the age profile of the population cannot explain the massive increase in health spending over the last few decades. It's increased from about 25% of all government spending in 2000 to about 45% now.
    The UKs demographic changes are not relatively minor though. The amount of over 90s in the UK since 2000 has nearly trebled.

    Similar changes have happened with other elderly profile groups.

    We lost my grandfather earlier this year aged 94. Yes the final 12 months would have cost considerably more (he was in a hospital bed most of final few months) but that's not to say the prior years would have been cheap by any shot of the imagination.
    Every assessment of health spending in the UK (OBR, OECD, European Commission) finds the same thing - demographic pressure has not been a big factor for spending growth. Sure, the number of 90 year olds has increased - but that is marginal compared with a total population of 67 million people and conditions and technologies that affect them.
    It's not marginal when most of the 67 million don't cost anything significant at all.

    Half a million extra over 90s costs more than many millions of working age adults.
    You send them an email and tell them they are wrong
    Happily say they're wrong here. And why.

    Plenty of reports are wrong.
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is a good sign


    And the final step? Calling for true patriots to defend the vote. Why shouldn't we have men with AR15s outside polling places? Especially in Dem areas where the illegal non-Muricans are voting?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,970

    Just wondering what dogshit Reeves will pull out the hat.

    Top rate back up to 50p (on the basis they're not "working people") is very possible.

    100% VAT rate on private schools. 😋
  • Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he really is. And if the only place he goes for 'walking' holidays is the Lake District, then it'll just be North London on holiday: going to the same artisan shops and meeting the same sorts of people they know from home. And only, I'm guessing, in the season.

    The sheer lack of imagination that causes people to go to the Lake District for walking holidays, when there's the rest of the brilliant UK to choose from, is staggering. Wainwright has a lot to answer for.
    No he really isn’t.

    Provide some actual evidence he is.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,850
    Reeves is doing that “try to sound cheery” thing again
  • Nice tributes to Rishi.

    Irritating Woke takes by SKS and the BBC on being the "first Asian" PM; stuff that would cause an inner eye-roll in him, as it would me.

    Eh? It’s something we should all be proud of. Not everything is a conspiracy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    Oh, are you a WOMAN, Rachel?

    Well fucking done.

    Woke woke shit
  • Taz said:

    Here we go. It will be like listening to my vacuum cleaner for an hour or so.

    So that’s how those ‘accidents’ with vacuum cleaners happen.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,477
    In the things listed on the Beeb as possibles for the budget, the reduction in Overseas Aid is one I was not expecting.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,170
    Why have all politicians stuck with the Blairite Estuary English crap? After 30 years of it, I’m a bit bored now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885
    The BoE and Halifax intern speaks.
  • Sadly I’ve got to get back to work as something has broken. I’ll catch up on the Budget later.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    biggles said:

    Why have all politicians stuck with the Blairite Estuary English crap? After 30 years of it, I’m a bit bored now.

    Even the Northern ones?
  • Reeves saying that people must have more pounds in their pocket.

    Great is she going to cut taxes then? Or empty rhetoric?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,244
    10 Yr 4.244 at budget start.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,622
    Whoops. OBR catches Hunt red-handed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885

    Reeves saying that people must have more pounds in their pocket.

    Great is she going to cut taxes then? Or empty rhetoric?

    She means for public sector workers and benefit claimants, you know real working people. Those of us in the private sector that can easily write cheques to pay unexpected bills don't know how good we have it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    Rachel trying to pin the tax rises on the Opposition.

    Very much doubt it will work.
  • Oh dear Rishi seems to not know that Coast to Coast also takes in the Lakes.

    Yes, I did wonder about that. Starmer would have known but very graciously gave him a free pass.
    Why would Starmer have known? He gets a nosebleed whenever he's outside North London. ;)
    Fake news. He spends many walking holidays in the Lakes and has done so for years.
    He went as a child and once with his own family it appears. Not important, but you appear to be a stickler for fake news. Unless you have evidence of this yearly visit in recent decades.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,817
    is this breakdown the £22b black hole going to net off giving more money to train drivers?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Taz said:

    Here we go. It will be like listening to my vacuum cleaner for an hour or so.

    So that’s how those ‘accidents’ with vacuum cleaners happen.
    You've never done it with a vacuum cleaner, TSE?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,170
    She’s going to be hoist by her own OBR petard in due course. Osborne was mad to invent it, and Labour will come to regret doubling down on it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    I'm bored
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    Is this the first budget by a female chancellor?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,170

    biggles said:

    Why have all politicians stuck with the Blairite Estuary English crap? After 30 years of it, I’m a bit bored now.

    Even the Northern ones?
    Oddly, yes.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,817
    Its now irresponsible is it to cut working peoples taxes? NI reference?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,524

    biggles said:

    Why have all politicians stuck with the Blairite Estuary English crap? After 30 years of it, I’m a bit bored now.

    Even the Northern ones?
    Estuary English has no place in the North.
    (With the possible exception of Humberside.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,524

    Reeves saying that people must have more pounds in their pocket.

    Great is she going to cut taxes then? Or empty rhetoric?

    Pushing up inflation would do that.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589

    Taz said:

    Here we go. It will be like listening to my vacuum cleaner for an hour or so.

    So that’s how those ‘accidents’ with vacuum cleaners happen.
    That reminds me of a video that came up on my twitter feed, I don't know why as it is not an interest of mine, but a chap going to the bathroom accidentally fell onto the handle of the brush and had to go to hospital to get it extracted.

    The Nurses were not professional, they were chuckling.
  • Oh dear Rishi seems to not know that Coast to Coast also takes in the Lakes.

    Yes, I did wonder about that. Starmer would have known but very graciously gave him a free pass.
    Why would Starmer have known? He gets a nosebleed whenever he's outside North London. ;)
    Fake news. He spends many walking holidays in the Lakes and has done so for years.
    He went as a child and once with his own family it appears. Not important, but you appear to be a stickler for fake news. Unless you have evidence of this yearly visit in recent decades.
    He went there this summer with Gary Neville.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Vox pops should be banned by law on Budget day.

    Or any day if I had my way. Sort of nonsense you hear. Grrrr.
    Kamala's head in your picture occupies exactly the same amount of space as your morbidly overweight cat if you put them side by side (or one above the other as per your profile).

    Make of that what you will.
    Was wondering who this 'Forthe' person was in Kinabalu's profile pic. Does look a bit like Kamala, it's true. May the forthe be with her :wink:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885

    Its now irresponsible is it to cut working peoples taxes? NI reference?

    Only if they can write cheques to pay unexpected bills.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,582
    edited October 30

    Nice tributes to Rishi.

    Irritating Woke takes by SKS and the BBC on being the "first Asian" PM; stuff that would cause an inner eye-roll in him, as it would me.

    Eh? It’s something we should all be proud of. Not everything is a conspiracy.
    No, we should quietly ignore it, wile being quietly proud of it. Adjust your moustache, tighten your umbrella and.... Be! British!

    I recall the utter astonishment among my American relatives (New York Democrats) - why was this not An Issue? Where were the protests? etc etc.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,975

    Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he really is. And if the only place he goes for 'walking' holidays is the Lake District, then it'll just be North London on holiday: going to the same artisan shops and meeting the same sorts of people they know from home. And only, I'm guessing, in the season.

    The sheer lack of imagination that causes people to go to the Lake District for walking holidays, when there's the rest of the brilliant UK to choose from, is staggering. Wainwright has a lot to answer for.
    No he really isn’t.

    Provide some actual evidence he is.
    Okay. Where has he lived outside London, aside from his time at uni in Leeds and Oxford? He's a Londoner / Home Counties bod, born and bred. He is a firm member of the establishment, and has been for decades.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589
    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    biggles said:

    It’s like Labour are trying really hard to follow a stereotype of the Coalition Government’s narrative, but with no understanding of how they actually sold their economic agenda.

    Without the “mission” of “getting the deficit down”, some sort of success criteria, and a vision of sunlit uplands, it won’t work. Also, Labour’s natural voters may not respond as well to baby eating as the Tory voters did.

    I think this is a very good point. The first bit at least.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    Oh well.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,170
    She’s going to regret putting a specific number on compensation schemes. The victims can mostly count, and when they do the maths they are going to criticise the offer. That’s why you don’t do it publicly.
  • Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Here we go. It will be like listening to my vacuum cleaner for an hour or so.

    So that’s how those ‘accidents’ with vacuum cleaners happen.
    That reminds me of a video that came up on my twitter feed, I don't know why as it is not an interest of mine, but a chap going to the bathroom accidentally fell onto the handle of the brush and had to go to hospital to get it extracted.

    The Nurses were not professional, they were chuckling.
    Tangentially Neil Delamere tells a story of a man who dated a nurse and it ended badly, a year later the chap has a colonoscopy scheduled as he’s about to go under who does he see about to do the deed, his ex.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    Gulp. £40bn of tax rises confirmed.
  • 40 billion of tax rises
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,244
    Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    Because those both were actually scandals. Boomers getting their pensions slightly later... not so much :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    I see the woke liberal Telegraph have spotted Trump will be a disaster.

    Why Trump could crush the British economy

    A Republican win risks devastating companies that sell into the US market


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/29/why-trump-could-crush-the-british-economy/

    I think it's only Reform voters who mostly prefer Trump, though you do have Trussites who do prefer him among Tories.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589
    She's been rattling on for an age now and still no specifics just party political point scoring. Just get on with it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    BRACE
  • Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    SAD!!!!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589
    Andy_JS said:

    Is this the first budget by a female chancellor?

    If it is it has not been mentioned.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589

    Gulp. £40bn of tax rises confirmed.

    Per year or Life of Parliament though ?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,817
    £40B of tax rises! ye gods - socialism on speed
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589

    BRACE

    INCOMING !!!!
  • Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    They're not an injustice.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,515

    Boy that escalated quickly.

    Joe Marler’s call for the haka to be “binned” has sparked a fierce backlash in New Zealand, with the country’s government questioning his intelligence and Maori groups accusing him of a lack of respect.

    Marler posted on X and said the haka was ‘ridiculous’, advocating for it to be scrapped. He added: “It’s only any good when teams actually front it with some sort of reply. Like the [rugby] league boys did last week.” By Wednesday morning, he had deactivated his account.

    While some backed Marler’s comments, the reaction in New Zealand was strong, with ACT leader David Seymour leading the charge.

    “I love the haka. It wouldn’t be the All Blacks if they didn’t do the haka,” Seymour told reporters. “Who is this Joe Marler guy, I’ve never heard of him? Well, in my experience I have met a few props with very high IQ, but very few of them. So it could be something in that area.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2024/10/30/joe-marler-haka-comments-david-seymour-maori-reaction/

    I have some sympathy with Marler. Why are certain sides allowed a pre-match dance when others aren't? More amusing is to go back and look at the evolution of the Haka as performed by the All Blacks. It used to be a bit of fun, now it has transitioned into something rather sinister (the whole throat slitting end etc).
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,076
    Taz said:

    Gulp. £40bn of tax rises confirmed.

    Per year or Life of Parliament though ?
    I expect it's per year, but by the final year of parliament
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    £10+bn
    A billion pounds isn't what it used to be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,524
    How red tape holds back nuclear power in Britain
    And how to fix it

    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/how-red-tape-holds-back-nuclear-power
    ...Although Hinkley Point C uses the same EPR design as in Finland and France, the UK’s nuclear regulator insisted on 7,000 changes such as the requirement of having both an analog and digital control centre. France’s Flamanville only has the latter. Hinkley Point C will use 25% more concrete and 35% more steel than other EPRs as a result.

    All of this makes the kind of fleet-based approach that works in South Korea (and worked in France and Britain historically) next-to-impossible. You do not get the benefits of learning-by-doing or supply chain investment, if there’s no certainty around what you are building and when you will be building it, if at all.

    Beyond planning, there is the problem that our regulators treat nuclear differently to any other technology when it comes to safety.

    The underlying principle governing the regulation of radiation in Britain is ‘As Low as Reasonably Practicable’ or ALARP. In effect, it means that whenever a productivity gain in nuclear construction is discovered, it is seen as an opportunity to make the safest way to produce electricity even safer. The Office for Nuclear Regulation’s starting point for whether or not nuclear safety measures are ‘grossly disproportionate’ is if costs outweigh benefits by a factor of ten.

    Not only does this make nuclear uncompetitive, it also makes the public less safe because instead of using safe nuclear, we burn dirty gas (or until very recently, coal) where similarly costly regulations aren’t being imposed...


    Much of this is not new to PBers, but very good article.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    Because those both were actually scandals. Boomers getting their pensions slightly later... not so much :)
    Slightly?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    Growth at the end of the forecast period only 1.6%.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,515

    Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he really is. And if the only place he goes for 'walking' holidays is the Lake District, then it'll just be North London on holiday: going to the same artisan shops and meeting the same sorts of people they know from home. And only, I'm guessing, in the season.

    The sheer lack of imagination that causes people to go to the Lake District for walking holidays, when there's the rest of the brilliant UK to choose from, is staggering. Wainwright has a lot to answer for.
    I'd argue the Lake District is superb for a walking holiday - huge range of terrain, some very remote spots that are not actually that remote but feel like they are, a region set up for tourism. Of course other parts are great too, but most people don't restrict themselves to just the Lakes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970

    Growth at the end of the forecast period only 1.6%.

    Trump could have crashed the world economy by that point. Growth forecasts that far in the future are just pointless.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,311
    edited October 30

    Growth at the end of the forecast period only 1.6%.

    So continuing to lose ground versus general inflating costs normally you say ~2%...and I am going to assume we still have fairly high immigration levels, so even worse GDP / PP.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    MikeL said:

    Those growth figures look very poor.

    Wouldn't take much of a "shock" for those numbers to go negative would it?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    Because those both were actually scandals. Boomers getting their pensions slightly later... not so much :)
    Slightly?
    Yes.

    End of discrimination and then only a slight change from there.

    There is no excuse for discrimination. The WASPI moaners are upset inequality has been ended.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    I see the woke liberal Telegraph have spotted Trump will be a disaster.

    Why Trump could crush the British economy

    A Republican win risks devastating companies that sell into the US market


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/29/why-trump-could-crush-the-british-economy/

    Is the Telegraphs mission to increase the anxiety of the nation?
    Only if that coincides with preventing all housebuilding in the Shires
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,524
    Selebian said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Vox pops should be banned by law on Budget day.

    Or any day if I had my way. Sort of nonsense you hear. Grrrr.
    Kamala's head in your picture occupies exactly the same amount of space as your morbidly overweight cat if you put them side by side (or one above the other as per your profile).

    Make of that what you will.
    Was wondering who this 'Forthe' person was in Kinabalu's profile pic. Does look a bit like Kamala, it's true. May the forthe be with her :wink:
    It is.
    https://x.com/MarkHamill/status/1851161034473816368
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    RobD said:

    Growth at the end of the forecast period only 1.6%.

    Trump could have crashed the world economy by that point. Growth forecasts that far in the future are just pointless.
    It is an indication of the expected trend rate of growth. Much lower than it used to be.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632

    Growth at the end of the forecast period only 1.6%.

    So continuing to lose ground versus inflation...and I am going to assume we still have fairly high immigration levels, so even worse GDP / PP.
    These growth figures are always inflation-adjusted, not nominal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885
    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Scott_xP said:

    This is a good sign


    And the final step? Calling for true patriots to defend the vote. Why shouldn't we have men with AR15s outside polling places? Especially in Dem areas where the illegal non-Muricans are voting?
    He wanted more violence than he got last time. He's being a vote more obvious this time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970

    Growth at the end of the forecast period only 1.6%.

    So continuing to lose ground versus general inflating costs normally you say ~2%...and I am going to assume we still have fairly high immigration levels, so even worse GDP / PP.
    It’s real growth, so above inflation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    Balance the budget in the third year, for current spending. Is that stricter or looser?
  • Oh dear Rishi seems to not know that Coast to Coast also takes in the Lakes.

    Yes, I did wonder about that. Starmer would have known but very graciously gave him a free pass.
    Why would Starmer have known? He gets a nosebleed whenever he's outside North London. ;)
    Fake news. He spends many walking holidays in the Lakes and has done so for years.
    He went as a child and once with his own family it appears. Not important, but you appear to be a stickler for fake news. Unless you have evidence of this yearly visit in recent decades.
    He went there this summer with Gary Neville.
    Not on holiday, quick photo/video op. The thought of the two of them together on holiday.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,076
    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    They're growth over and above inflation. They're still a bit meh though.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,084
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Gulp. £40bn of tax rises confirmed.

    Per year or Life of Parliament though ?
    I expect it's per year, but by the final year of parliament
    Enough to knock a few billion off in the last year and claim to be a tax cutting government.

    She will hope that people's memories are short enough that they swallow her gaslighting lies.

    Completely transparent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    I do hope they can finally balance the budget. Being in surplus in few years sounds promising.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,244
    Balanced budget in 2028. Bookmark that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,311
    edited October 30
    Pulpstar said:

    Fucks sake the "investment" is on carbon capture - why can't the state simply buy some turbines and get the return from the north sea ?!

    So the government are actually going to put in money upfront, rather than this £22bn pay out if the private sector do it (which was the don't worry, they will never actually pay that out, because it won't happen).
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589
    Covid Corruption Commissioner.

    Another Quango that will deliver little apart from nice salaries for those who are employed by it.
  • Covid corruption commissioner. Hello...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    Taz said:

    Funding for victims of 2 terrible injustices.

    Infected blood scandal and Post Office Horizon scandal.

    No mention of WASPI women. They won't like that.

    Good.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    RobD said:

    I do hope they can finally balance the budget. Being in surplus in few years sounds promising.

    Still borrowing 70bn a year by 2029-30
  • Pulpstar said:

    Balanced budget in 2028. Bookmark that.

    I'll believe that when I see it.

    A balanced budget is like fusion. It's coming in the near future and always will be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970

    RobD said:

    I do hope they can finally balance the budget. Being in surplus in few years sounds promising.

    Still borrowing 70bn a year by 2029-30
    Ah, I misunderstood.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    She still hasn't appointed a Covid corruption commissioner?

    You might have thought an appointment would have been made already, and some news on corruption identified to announce.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589
    A crackdown of Fraud. That's a novel approach.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,244
    If there was a market at evens on the Public sector net borrowing would anyone take the under for 3 years hence ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567
    Pulpstar said:

    Fucks sake the "investment" is on carbon capture - why can't the state simply buy some turbines and get the return from the north sea ?!

    This government is going to tax and squeeze and misdirect a lot of investment
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,582
    Nigelb said:

    How red tape holds back nuclear power in Britain
    And how to fix it

    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/how-red-tape-holds-back-nuclear-power
    ...Although Hinkley Point C uses the same EPR design as in Finland and France, the UK’s nuclear regulator insisted on 7,000 changes such as the requirement of having both an analog and digital control centre. France’s Flamanville only has the latter. Hinkley Point C will use 25% more concrete and 35% more steel than other EPRs as a result.

    All of this makes the kind of fleet-based approach that works in South Korea (and worked in France and Britain historically) next-to-impossible. You do not get the benefits of learning-by-doing or supply chain investment, if there’s no certainty around what you are building and when you will be building it, if at all.

    Beyond planning, there is the problem that our regulators treat nuclear differently to any other technology when it comes to safety.

    The underlying principle governing the regulation of radiation in Britain is ‘As Low as Reasonably Practicable’ or ALARP. In effect, it means that whenever a productivity gain in nuclear construction is discovered, it is seen as an opportunity to make the safest way to produce electricity even safer. The Office for Nuclear Regulation’s starting point for whether or not nuclear safety measures are ‘grossly disproportionate’ is if costs outweigh benefits by a factor of ten.

    Not only does this make nuclear uncompetitive, it also makes the public less safe because instead of using safe nuclear, we burn dirty gas (or until very recently, coal) where similarly costly regulations aren’t being imposed...


    Much of this is not new to PBers, but very good article.

    The requirement to have both analog and digital control reminds me of the Chinook comedy....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,885
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    They're growth over and above inflation. They're still a bit meh though.
    Not inflation, per capita so per person because immigration isn't going to drop to zero overnight.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 144
    How do I transcend over to the alternative multiverse where Kwarteng is still Chancellor?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    RobD said:

    I do hope they can finally balance the budget. Being in surplus in few years sounds promising.

    Only for current spending. Looking forward to seeing the small print on what is included in that, and what isn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,311
    Taz said:

    A crackdown of Fraud. That's a novel approach.

    It isn't a budget without civil service efficiency savings, crack down on tax evasion and the army of loft laggers.....
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,589
    Working People Klaxon !!!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,567

    Covid corruption commissioner. Hello...

    This is a highly political speech.

    I think she's positioning herself nicely if SKS falls.
This discussion has been closed.