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What’s in the box? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    I like this budget though it will cost my estate about £40K more in IHT.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    bloody GB energy !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 30
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    Ah! But it’ll be the business’ fault, not the government’s. That’s the calculation anyway. Grossly political but then we are now well versed in grossly political budgets.
    The government will definitely get the blame when unemployment starts to go up. The bigger issue here is that this hurts hiring at the bottom of the pay scale where the extra £600 is a much larger proportion of the overall package so it's lower skilled workers who will now end up on the dole or live without pay rises for 3-4 years.
    There will be a lot of companies where expanding beyond say 3 employees no longer makes any sense...
    This was already a huge issue in the UK compared to other leading nations. We are absolutely dominated by the two ends of the extreme, massive multi-national employers and micro-businesses with a handful of employees.

    We have very few independent companies that employ 100s / 1000s of people and its really bad for the balance of the economy, the ability to service worldwide markets etc.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Yeah, lots of people have been calling for big business to be less subsidised by the state. Some of those people are complaining now.

    And over a million micro and small businesses benefit from the increase in employment allowance so will be paying less to employ people.

    Big business vs small business, which side should they be on?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Taz said:

    Green Hydrogen now.

    Just no - the only purpose for it is if we have run out of other places to store solar / wind generated energy and even then I don't see the point..
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    It feels so good to have a Labour budget again.

    Great stuff from Rachel
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 698
    edited October 30
    I don't know what she means by unlocking the potential of Cambridge. The whole of greater Cambridge is a bloody building site already.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    Rachel has a very weird delivery that makes her sound like she’s surprised at what she’s reading out…

    Long speech. Was too much bullshit in the first half hour...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Maybe, but this will only serve to hurt the actual employees who will have to live with 3-4 years of no pay growth and it also means that without the pay growth lower paid employees will still need in working benefit top ups.
    We are definitely going to be seeing more jobs fall into the minimum wage trap...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    GIN1138 said:

    Tres said:

    VAT on private schools from 1st Jan 2025 confirmed and to remove business rate relief

    Bitch

    I’ve flagged this. Just totally unnecessary language.
    Totally necessary. She is a bitch.

    And you are a sad fuckwit.
    Grow up, incel
    Have more sex than you'll have in a million years mate, you sad Lefty twat
    LOL! This could be a possible candidate for post of the year! 😂
    Interesting that it's seen as all about sex, really, this right wing political discourse.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,718
    Phillipson doesn't seem pleased about the education investment
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Tres said:

    VAT on private schools from 1st Jan 2025 confirmed and to remove business rate relief

    Bitch

    I’ve flagged this. Just totally unnecessary language.
    Totally necessary. She is a bitch.

    And you are a sad fuckwit.
    Grow up, incel
    Have more sex than you'll have in a million years mate, you sad Lefty twat
    LOL! This could be a possible candidate for post of the year! 😂
    Interesting that it's seen as all about sex, really, this right wing political discourse.
    Huh, he was just reacting to what someone else said on that topic.
  • It feels so good to have a Labour budget again.

    Great stuff from Rachel

    There's a lot of retail politics around the edges, but I'm not hearing a significant change in the direction of travel.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 181

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Indeed.

    The minimum wage increases have reduced this but until a few years ago there was a peverse incentive to offer people no more than 16 hours a week.

    May suit some but meant frequently the poorest workers in society were having to work 2 or 3 jobs.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    RNHS
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 508
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Covid Corruption Commissioner.

    Another Quango that will deliver little apart from nice salaries for those who are employed by it.

    What will they achieve that has not been looked at? Seriously? Have the police NOT looked at what has happened (or is someone else's role?)
    It is all just performative. It is unlikely to achieve anything.
    SFO remit, but IIRC were given a much smaller investigation budget than they asked for...
    Probably a smaller budget than was spent on trying to obstruct curious journalists / GLP from seeing details of the covid contracts
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Taz said:

    Green Hydrogen now.

    Are they going to pass primary legislation to declare hydrogen safe for domestic supply (like Rwanda)?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Stereodog said:

    I don't know what she means by unlocking the potential of Cambridge. The whole of greater Cambridge is a bloody building site already.

    I hope she's referring to things like East-West Rail. Although that's usually promoted as being 'unlocking the potential of the Oxford to Cambridge corridor."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    kyf_100 said:

    More broadly I can imagine a lot more startups and entrepreneurs making the move to Dubai et al.

    Yup.

    Waves from Abu Dhabi.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    kenObi said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Indeed.

    The minimum wage increases have reduced this but until a few years ago there was a peverse incentive to offer people no more than 16 hours a week.

    May suit some but meant frequently the poorest workers in society were having to work 2 or 3 jobs.
    The drop to 5k threshold probably a response to that 16 hour a week economy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020

    It feels so good to have a Labour budget again.

    Great stuff from Rachel

    Always wait for the dust to settle....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Tres said:

    VAT on private schools from 1st Jan 2025 confirmed and to remove business rate relief

    Bitch

    I’ve flagged this. Just totally unnecessary language.
    Totally necessary. She is a bitch.

    And you are a sad fuckwit.
    Grow up, incel
    Have more sex than you'll have in a million years mate, you sad Lefty twat
    LOL! This could be a possible candidate for post of the year! 😂
    Interesting that it's seen as all about sex, really, this right wing political discourse.
    I mean it was a funny post.

    I come here to be entertained more than anything, and it made me laugh. 😂
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    GIN1138 said:

    Freezing fuel duty again is CRAZY.

    Don't worry, drivers will pay for it with Pay-Per-Mile in a couple of years...
    A good way to kill their political chances with anyone not living in a metropolitan centre.
    Fuel duty is going to bring in less and less in not all that long with EVs, so unless you ramp up tax on electricity (with all the side-effects that brings), then road charging is the only sensible way to replace it. But that runs into the problem of simplicity v fairness. You'd also need a comprehensive and effective monitoring network to process all the fees. But it could, in principle, be done.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    Taz said:

    Green Hydrogen now.

    Are they going to pass primary legislation to declare hydrogen safe for domestic supply (like Rwanda)?
    Now there's a policy with a bang!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Stereodog said:

    I don't know what she means by unlocking the potential of Cambridge. The whole of greater Cambridge is a bloody building site already.

    I hope she's referring to things like East-West Rail. Although that's usually promoted as being 'unlocking the potential of the Oxford to Cambridge corridor."
    Yes, but Oxford's a dump.

    Quite gracious to give them a corridor out, really.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    A lot of investment announcements for the Northern end of the Red Wall.

    Nothing for the East Midlands, yet. Unless I blinked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    Reeves promises an additional £6.7bn to the Department for Education next year, - a 19% real-terms increase on this year.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Birmingham has more swing seats
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    It feels so good to have a Labour budget again.

    Great stuff from Rachel

    There's a lot of retail politics around the edges, but I'm not hearing a significant change in the direction of travel.
    I'm just out of court and heading back but there is certainly an element of rebalancing to the extent that these tax increases should set the deficit on a lower trajectory. Some of the assumptions about the additional money raised look pretty heroic though.

    Other than that I am seeing a lot of changes but not much of an overarching narrative.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    I'm surprised on the Excise Duty freeze.

    There's a lot of retail politics here.

    And no changes to Council Tax - missed opportunity.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited October 30
    The question for the opposition parties, particularly the conservatives, is: how much of this do they opportunistically oppose - and what do they hold their nose over.

    Risks and benefits to both strategies.

    Cameron managed to get the tories back into power using the second strategy, but I sense the former strategy is the one the right will go for.

    That’s if they’re thinking of strategy at all.

    They can do one and then the other, they have time on their side.

    10yr Gilts flat, btw.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    I am sure we were told the government was uniquely focused upon growth, growth, growth....
    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Gaslighting
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    MattW said:

    A lot of investment announcements for the Northern end of the Red Wall.

    Nothing for the East Midlands, yet. Unless I blinked.

    Specifically mentioned aerospace (i.e. Rolls-Royce in Derby)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    MattW said:

    I'm surprised on the Excise Duty freeze.

    There's a lot of retail politics here.

    And no changes to Council Tax - missed opportunity.

    There is always next year...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,700
    GIN1138 said:

    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Tres said:

    VAT on private schools from 1st Jan 2025 confirmed and to remove business rate relief

    Bitch

    I’ve flagged this. Just totally unnecessary language.
    Totally necessary. She is a bitch.

    And you are a sad fuckwit.
    Grow up, incel
    Have more sex than you'll have in a million years mate, you sad Lefty twat
    LOL! This could be a possible candidate for post of the year! 😂
    Interesting that it's seen as all about sex, really, this right wing political discourse.
    I mean it was a funny post.

    I come here to be entertained more than anything, and it made me laugh. 😂
    Fair play, I suspect he's given you more enjoyment just now than he's ever managed to give to any of his partners.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829

    kenObi said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Indeed.

    The minimum wage increases have reduced this but until a few years ago there was a peverse incentive to offer people no more than 16 hours a week.

    May suit some but meant frequently the poorest workers in society were having to work 2 or 3 jobs.
    The drop to 5k threshold probably a response to that 16 hour a week economy.
    But the 16h per week economy exists because of tax credits eligibility. It's specifically due to the government, not companies who really don't care if they have two people working 16 hours or one person doing 32h.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    “A commanding performance”

    BBC.

    That’s right. Good stuff.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 698

    Stereodog said:

    I don't know what she means by unlocking the potential of Cambridge. The whole of greater Cambridge is a bloody building site already.

    I hope she's referring to things like East-West Rail. Although that's usually promoted as being 'unlocking the potential of the Oxford to Cambridge corridor."
    I was selfishly hoping that East-West rail would be dumped as it's going to result in another half decade of building noise outside my flat and the proposed station for St Neots is actually out in the middle of nowhere so won't be very convenient for me anyway.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    What is there to do that isn't either in progress (Ashington line) or up in the air.

    Leamside seems to be the solution to about 8 different problems so I can see why it's not being progressed at the moment...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Nothing on ISAs?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Tres said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Carnyx said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Tres said:

    VAT on private schools from 1st Jan 2025 confirmed and to remove business rate relief

    Bitch

    I’ve flagged this. Just totally unnecessary language.
    Totally necessary. She is a bitch.

    And you are a sad fuckwit.
    Grow up, incel
    Have more sex than you'll have in a million years mate, you sad Lefty twat
    LOL! This could be a possible candidate for post of the year! 😂
    Interesting that it's seen as all about sex, really, this right wing political discourse.
    I mean it was a funny post.

    I come here to be entertained more than anything, and it made me laugh. 😂
    Fair play, I suspect he's given you more enjoyment just now than he's ever managed to give to any of his partners.
    Ooo.. Miaow! 🐱
  • Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    She announced that she is to fund the electrification of Church Fenton to York - which is already funded and underway. And various other existing live being delivered schemes.

    Would you have been happier had she announced funding of rail services to Ashington in a similar vein...?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    ISAs not mentioned.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Very impressed with Rachel Reeves even disregarding the content
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    kenObi said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Indeed.

    The minimum wage increases have reduced this but until a few years ago there was a peverse incentive to offer people no more than 16 hours a week.

    May suit some but meant frequently the poorest workers in society were having to work 2 or 3 jobs.
    The drop to 5k threshold probably a response to that 16 hour a week economy.
    I'm not an employer - can someone explain the NI changes including the threshold thing please?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 30
    She announces a £22.6bn increase in the day-to-day health budget, and a £31bn increase in the capital budget,

    All that extra borrowing is getting spent, i mean "invested" fast.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    MattW said:

    I'm surprised on the Excise Duty freeze.

    There's a lot of retail politics here.

    And no changes to Council Tax - missed opportunity.

    There is always next year...
    Not really - changes to council tax will take years to implement so if you don't kick it off now it's a political football at the next election..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Stocky said:

    Nothing on ISAs?

    What did you want to hear. No news is good news lol.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Tres said:

    VAT on private schools from 1st Jan 2025 confirmed and to remove business rate relief

    Bitch

    I’ve flagged this. Just totally unnecessary language.
    Totally necessary. She is a bitch.

    And you are a sad fuckwit.
    Grow up, incel
    Have more sex than you'll have in a million years mate, you sad Lefty twat
    I thought you were married. :wink:
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Stocky said:

    Nothing on ISAs?

    Not a mention of changes to the savings/pension landscape that I could see. So I assume (unless in small print?) no change.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    edited October 30

    She announces a £22.6bn increase in the day-to-day health budget, and a £31bn increase in the capital budget,

    All that extra borrowing is getting spent, i mean "invested" fast.

    That's almost three black holes worth of funding!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    No mention of HS2?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    Poor Rishi.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    It's notable that a number of her index linkings on tax increases are RPI linked not CPI linked.

    Naughty. That's an extra 0.5%-1% per annum over CPI.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    MikeL said:

    ISAs not mentioned.

    Always wait for the fine print.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    Poor Rishi.
    Stocky said:

    Nothing on ISAs?

    I heard nothing.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    Not seen anything I was particularly worried about happen yet, the inevitable pain ain't too bad. I'd imagine others will be feeling the same way. The months of daily mail fear mongering is going to backfire probably.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Rishi's swansong...
  • GIN1138 said:

    Freezing fuel duty again is CRAZY.

    Don't worry, drivers will pay for it with Pay-Per-Mile in a couple of years...
    A good way to kill their political chances with anyone not living in a metropolitan centre.
    Fuel duty is going to bring in less and less in not all that long with EVs, so unless you ramp up tax on electricity (with all the side-effects that brings), then road charging is the only sensible way to replace it. But that runs into the problem of simplicity v fairness. You'd also need a comprehensive and effective monitoring network to process all the fees. But it could, in principle, be done.
    Drivers have been the golden goose that were fleeced but that should come to an end now.

    For drivers who need to pay commercial rates to recharge vehicles its not remotely plausible or reasonable to do that and pay road fees too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    She announced that she is to fund the electrification of Church Fenton to York - which is already funded and underway. And various other existing live being delivered schemes.

    Would you have been happier had she announced funding of rail services to Ashington in a similar vein...?
    Did she really? In which case, this is very much a government doing politics in the manner of the old.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    MaxPB said:

    kenObi said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Indeed.

    The minimum wage increases have reduced this but until a few years ago there was a peverse incentive to offer people no more than 16 hours a week.

    May suit some but meant frequently the poorest workers in society were having to work 2 or 3 jobs.
    The drop to 5k threshold probably a response to that 16 hour a week economy.
    But the 16h per week economy exists because of tax credits eligibility. It's specifically due to the government, not companies who really don't care if they have two people working 16 hours or one person doing 32h.
    16 hrs @ min wage is almost exactly the point at which employers national insurance starts.

    So no or minimal employers for 2 x 16 hrs whereas it is paid on one person doing 32 hours.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,829

    She announces a £22.6bn increase in the day-to-day health budget, and a £31bn increase in the capital budget,

    All that extra borrowing is getting spent, i mean "invested" fast.

    So there's a net increase in borrowing even after £40bn in tax rises. Mental.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    simmer ! LOL
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    MaxPB said:

    kenObi said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    Beeb are saying that the reduction in employer NI threshold raises £25 billion. (It's 15% on another £4000 of pay, so that's about £600 per worker, which is a hefty slice of the amount needed.)
    True, but there’s a lot of heavy lifting in the small print, it feels to me. I may be wrong…
    For Tesco that's about £200m in NI just for that plus the increase in Employer's NI. Anyone who thinks this won't hit business investment and pay growth is kidding themselves. Two of the most reliable ways to increase GDP - business investment and real terms pay rises - are now off the table for at least 3-4 years while business recover the money elsewhere in the P&L.
    With respect to the likes of Tesco, its about time that they pay more and get subsidised less.
    Indeed.

    The minimum wage increases have reduced this but until a few years ago there was a peverse incentive to offer people no more than 16 hours a week.

    May suit some but meant frequently the poorest workers in society were having to work 2 or 3 jobs.
    The drop to 5k threshold probably a response to that 16 hour a week economy.
    But the 16h per week economy exists because of tax credits eligibility. It's specifically due to the government, not companies who really don't care if they have two people working 16 hours or one person doing 32h.
    16 hrs @ min wage is almost exactly the point at which employers national insurance starts.

    So no or minimal employers for 2 x 16 hrs whereas it is paid on one person doing 32 hours.
    16 hours at min wage was where it started

    From April it's 8 hours at minimum wage...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 30
    MikeL said:

    The most damning thing of all is the reduction to growth forecasts.

    Starmer said his number 1 priority is to raise growth.

    And in this very first budget the growth foreacsts have been reduced.

    And ultimately the only solution to the problem is better productivity and growth.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    TimS said:

    Tres said:

    VAT on private schools from 1st Jan 2025 confirmed and to remove business rate relief

    Bitch

    I’ve flagged this. Just totally unnecessary language.
    Totally necessary. She is a bitch.

    And you are a sad fuckwit.
    Grow up, incel
    Have more sex than you'll have in a million years mate, you sad Lefty twat
    The funny thing about this forum is that you tend imagine the posters look like their human avatars. I used to think you looked like the side of a cow but now you're a moustachioed sex god.
    As previously discussed, I used to think Casino looked like a very stylised map of the US :blush:

    I, myself, do indeed sport a strawberry-blonde bob cut and a three-starred shield-shaped full-face mask.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Shouty Rishi….
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    edited October 30
    GIN1138 said:

    Rishi's swansong...

    I think he might be enjoying this performance. Amateur dramatics. I withdraw my sympathies for him.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 698
    Someone needs to tell Sunak that doing the call and response thing doesn't work so well when you have so few MPs
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    edited October 30
    No timescale given for NHS day to day rise of £22.6bn?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    She announced that she is to fund the electrification of Church Fenton to York - which is already funded and underway. And various other existing live being delivered schemes.

    Would you have been happier had she announced funding of rail services to Ashington in a similar vein...?
    Electrifying Church Fenton to York is completely pointless unless the programme is continued through to Leeds (at least), now that HS2(Yorks) has been binned.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    So, Labour are gambling that an increase in health spending will improve the NHS enough to win the next election. That's the play. Pretty much that absorbs all the money raised by the NI increase.

    Everything else is fiddling at the margins, more borrowing to pay for infrastructure investment, but I'm not sure if it's enough. It's not convinced the OBR to improve the growth forecasts - looks like the opposite.

    The decision to commit to spending money on compensation near the beginning feels like a welcome clearing of the decks compared to deferring decisions under the previous government.

    Big picture - no fundamental change in course for Britain, but, fingers crossed, the health service will be better.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    Angry Rishi not going to work. What happened to good, genial Rishi we saw earlier.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    MikeL said:

    The most damning thing of all is the reduction to growth forecasts.

    Starmer said his number 1 priority is to raise growth.

    And in this very first budget the growth foreacsts have been reduced.

    You have to invest for growth and that takes longer than 5 years
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    MikeL said:

    The most damning thing of all is the reduction to growth forecasts.

    Starmer said his number 1 priority is to raise growth.

    And in this very first budget the growth foreacsts have been reduced.

    Yes, will be little noticed I suspect but the growth numbers are terrible and one unexpected "shock" could easily tip us into recession.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Freezing fuel duty again is CRAZY.

    Don't worry, drivers will pay for it with Pay-Per-Mile in a couple of years...
    A good way to kill their political chances with anyone not living in a metropolitan centre.
    Fuel duty is going to bring in less and less in not all that long with EVs, so unless you ramp up tax on electricity (with all the side-effects that brings), then road charging is the only sensible way to replace it. But that runs into the problem of simplicity v fairness. You'd also need a comprehensive and effective monitoring network to process all the fees. But it could, in principle, be done.
    Surely the simplest way would be some combination of mileage at MOT time and address of registered keeper.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Barnesian said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rishi's swansong...

    I think he might be enjoying this performance. Amateur dramatics. I withdraw my sympathies for him.
    Histrionics
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813

    Angry Rishi not going to work. What happened to good, genial Rishi we saw earlier.

    yes he is a bit shouty - would have been better to say exactly the same thing calmer
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 142
    GIN1138 said:

    RACHEL

    I cannot hear that name without thinking of the terrifying utterances from Zelda in Pet Semetary.

    This budget is only marginally less scary...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    carnforth said:

    No mention of HS2?

    The Euston section was confirmed. Don't think there was anything on not-HS2 beyond Birmingham.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp9zrg128get?post=asset:6130a566-4da8-4d43-a113-5db3819a84ba#post
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited October 30
    The retail politics side of the budget wasn't bad - overall it'll all depend on whether the economy grows and by how much by 2028/29.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039

    MikeL said:

    The most damning thing of all is the reduction to growth forecasts.

    Starmer said his number 1 priority is to raise growth.

    And in this very first budget the growth foreacsts have been reduced.

    You have to invest for growth and that takes longer than 5 years
    No you have to deregulate for growth and that takes less than 5 days.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    The big one was the bringing in pension funds to IHT. Massive.

    This will not affect public sector workers with DB schemes.

    So the balance once more from private sector to public.

    Details to come but thoughts include:

    What about inheritance by spouse?

    At what rate - 40%?!

    Death below age 75 too?

    What about tax on withdrawals*?

    * people think that unexhausted pension funds can pass down tax free. This is not true - IHT free yes but withdrawals are taxed at withdrawer's marginal rate of income tax as earned income (assuming deceased was over 75 on death).
    If these unexhausted funds are to be brought into the estate for IHT calculation, does this mean no further tax on withdrawals by the beneficiaries. Or will the fund be taxed twice?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    Reeves did well. It’s refreshing to have a Labour budget again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    Very impressed with Rachel Reeves even disregarding the content

    Yep. It was a sound performance, but the devil is always in the detail. Not too much sounding awful to me.

    The cut in employees NI followed by the rise in Employers NI is like a compulsory payrise for everyone at their employers expense when looked at overall.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited October 30

    MikeL said:

    ISAs not mentioned.

    Always wait for the fine print.
    ISA Contribution Levels to be maintained to 2030.

    Savings: Maintain subscription limits at current levels for Adult ISAs, Junior ISAs and Child Trust Funds from 6 April 2025 to 5 April 2030

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672156834da1c0d41942a8c9/Impact_on_households.pdf
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    I don't know what she means by unlocking the potential of Cambridge. The whole of greater Cambridge is a bloody building site already.

    I hope she's referring to things like East-West Rail. Although that's usually promoted as being 'unlocking the potential of the Oxford to Cambridge corridor."
    I was selfishly hoping that East-West rail would be dumped as it's going to result in another half decade of building noise outside my flat and the proposed station for St Neots is actually out in the middle of nowhere so won't be very convenient for me anyway.
    But Cambourne station will be very convenient for me. ;)

    I wonder where your flat is... Central Cambridge shouldn't be too affected by EWR AIUI (though I might be wrong, and the plans are still flexible). The first impact further south will be where the four tracks from Shepreth Junction become two, I *think* south of the new Cambridge South station?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    The Newcastle Metro is overdue an extension but there's no shovel ready scheme on the table AIUI
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    MattW said:

    It's notable that a number of her index linkings on tax increases are RPI linked not CPI linked.

    Naughty. That's an extra 0.5%-1% per annum over CPI.

    Not after 2030, RPI is redefined as CPIH, which has historically been almost exactly the same as CPI on a average.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 30
    "businesses will see their business rates nearly double"

    Not extending the discount or better, reforming it. This is really stupid. Its one of the big things that all small businesses and wannabe small businesses complain is a real killer for them. Tax them more on profit, not in just trying to operate.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    edited October 30

    carnforth said:

    No mention of HS2?

    The Euston section was confirmed. Don't think there was anything on not-HS2 beyond Birmingham.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp9zrg128get?post=asset:6130a566-4da8-4d43-a113-5db3819a84ba#post
    "On HS2 - the high speed rail project - Reeves says they are committing the funding to begin tunnelling work to London Euston, meaning Old Oak Common in West London and Euston.
    It was one of the sections of the multi-billion pound rail project that had been scrapped by the Conservative government.
    Without the link to Euston, people travelling between Birmingham and London would arrive at Old Oak Common and have to take another train to travel into the centre of the capital."

    Not a new announcement. The tunnelling to Euston has never been cancelled. It's the station that was delayed/cancelled:

    https://www.hs2.org.uk/building-hs2/tunnels/tunnel-drives/euston-tunnel/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    One big budget takeaway is that Reeves is a lot better at politics than her boss.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Very impressed with Rachel Reeves even disregarding the content

    She was excellent. That format suits her.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Freezing fuel duty again is CRAZY.

    Don't worry, drivers will pay for it with Pay-Per-Mile in a couple of years...
    A good way to kill their political chances with anyone not living in a metropolitan centre.
    Fuel duty is going to bring in less and less in not all that long with EVs, so unless you ramp up tax on electricity (with all the side-effects that brings), then road charging is the only sensible way to replace it. But that runs into the problem of simplicity v fairness. You'd also need a comprehensive and effective monitoring network to process all the fees. But it could, in principle, be done.
    Surely the simplest way would be some combination of mileage at MOT time and address of registered keeper.
    Simplest way is to find the money for general taxation from the general public and not fleece drivers.

    Too many here take for grabted the beneftis of off road parking for EVs but millions don't have that. Paying to charge an EV at a public charging point costs more than filling a hybrid with petrol even though the petrol vehicle has fuel duty.

    The idea that people should pay that and then road charges on top is preposterous.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Taz said:

    Birmingham tram extension gets funding. Anything for Nottingham, Manchester metros etc?

    Nothing for North East transport either.
    The Newcastle Metro is overdue an extension but there's no shovel ready scheme on the table AIUI
    There are hardly any plans - the only one I've seen is the Leamside Line to Washington but there are multiple possible uses for that line...
This discussion has been closed.