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What’s in the box? – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,839
    10 Yr 4.197%. Bond market seems to be liking it all so far.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,198

    Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he really is. And if the only place he goes for 'walking' holidays is the Lake District, then it'll just be North London on holiday: going to the same artisan shops and meeting the same sorts of people they know from home. And only, I'm guessing, in the season.

    The sheer lack of imagination that causes people to go to the Lake District for walking holidays, when there's the rest of the brilliant UK to choose from, is staggering. Wainwright has a lot to answer for.
    I'd argue the Lake District is superb for a walking holiday - huge range of terrain, some very remote spots that are not actually that remote but feel like they are, a region set up for tourism. Of course other parts are great too, but most people don't restrict themselves to just the Lakes.
    It is, for one or two trips. The problem is that it is filled with second-homers (I wonder if SKS has one...?), and your comments about "remote but not remote" can be made for many other places as well - the Peak District for one.

    The Lake District is popular amongst some because they can go there and be with people like them. A bit like Southwold; well, Walberswick at least. ;)

    (I love Southwold and Walberswick, but realise the issues.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,565
    Taz said:

    Covid Corruption Commissioner.

    Another Quango that will deliver little apart from nice salaries for those who are employed by it.

    I've already applied to lead the enquiry into the Covid Corruption Commission.

    Anyone want to apply for the enquiry into my enquiry?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,130
    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    It's real GDP growth - but any growth per head is likely to be offset by tax increases.

    £40 bn in tax rises is about 1.5% of GDP.

    The government seems to have given up on growing the economy before it even started.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    Good chart comparing previous budget tax rises as a percentage of GDP over the last 50 years.
    https://x.com/ArchieHall/status/1851553092963013099

    Lamont still, narrowly, the record holder.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Ah, no-one gives a fuck Rachel.

    What we want to know: how much are you going to screw us?

    Get on with it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    I just hope @TheScreamingEagles didn't bet on the colour of The Chancellor's tie this time.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,060

    Nigelb said:

    How red tape holds back nuclear power in Britain
    And how to fix it

    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/how-red-tape-holds-back-nuclear-power
    ...Although Hinkley Point C uses the same EPR design as in Finland and France, the UK’s nuclear regulator insisted on 7,000 changes such as the requirement of having both an analog and digital control centre. France’s Flamanville only has the latter. Hinkley Point C will use 25% more concrete and 35% more steel than other EPRs as a result.

    All of this makes the kind of fleet-based approach that works in South Korea (and worked in France and Britain historically) next-to-impossible. You do not get the benefits of learning-by-doing or supply chain investment, if there’s no certainty around what you are building and when you will be building it, if at all.

    Beyond planning, there is the problem that our regulators treat nuclear differently to any other technology when it comes to safety.

    The underlying principle governing the regulation of radiation in Britain is ‘As Low as Reasonably Practicable’ or ALARP. In effect, it means that whenever a productivity gain in nuclear construction is discovered, it is seen as an opportunity to make the safest way to produce electricity even safer. The Office for Nuclear Regulation’s starting point for whether or not nuclear safety measures are ‘grossly disproportionate’ is if costs outweigh benefits by a factor of ten.

    Not only does this make nuclear uncompetitive, it also makes the public less safe because instead of using safe nuclear, we burn dirty gas (or until very recently, coal) where similarly costly regulations aren’t being imposed...


    Much of this is not new to PBers, but very good article.

    The requirement to have both analog and digital control reminds me of the Chinook comedy....
    So you have 2 dials with different figures htf do you know which one is correct and which is wrong?
  • She still hasn't appointed a Covid corruption commissioner?

    You might have thought an appointment would have been made already, and some news on corruption identified to announce.

    She's got to come up with a way of how this person has been recruited within the rules and guidance first.
  • Nigelb said:

    Good chart comparing previous budget tax rises as a percentage of GDP over the last 50 years.
    https://x.com/ArchieHall/status/1851553092963013099

    Lamont still, narrowly, the record holder.

    That's was on 35 billion tax rises. This surpasses Lamont and is the largest in at least 50 years.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    maybe crackdown on tax avoidance on expensive benefits in kind like boxes at London football teams or gifts of clothes
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,741
    Get to the tax rises Rachel….
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he is.
    No, he isn’t.
    PB Panto season’s started early. Only 100 days in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    It's real GDP growth - but any growth per head is likely to be offset by tax increases.

    £40 bn in tax rises is about 1.5% of GDP.

    The government seems to have given up on growing the economy before it even started.
    And, all that money will be pissed away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784

    I see we are getting the Chess fake news story again,

    Rachel Reeves: Playing Labour's first big gambit

    Reeves played chess from an early age, with her father teaching her the key moves. She became a national under-14 champion, and would "quietly thrash" any boys who might think they were in for an easy game, according to Ellie.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw4ywl7w820o

    It is bizarrely poor reporting. Reeves has never claimed to have won the tournament (she actually reached the Round of 16 in the UK Under-14s Girls Chess Championship as I understand it). It's not clear to me why the BBC have got this simple fact wrong. Sloppy.
    What sounded better to the writer?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,584
    KnightOut said:

    How do I transcend over to the alternative multiverse where Kwarteng is still Chancellor?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2024/10/27/here-are-the-20-best-scored-horror-movies-of-2024/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    It's real GDP growth - but any growth per head is likely to be offset by tax increases.

    £40 bn in tax rises is about 1.5% of GDP.

    The government seems to have given up on growing the economy before it even started.
    Yes, as I said earlier, all productivity gain from the private sector over the next 5 years is going to be absorbed by the state which is extremely low productivity. This budget sets us on the path of Japan, low yield, low growth and very timid. I guess it's better than Argentina though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474

    Pulpstar said:

    Fucks sake the "investment" is on carbon capture - why can't the state simply buy some turbines and get the return from the north sea ?!

    So the government are actually going to put in money upfront, rather than this £22bn pay out if the private sector do it (which was the don't worry, they will never actually pay that out, because it won't happen).
    I'd want to see the contracts before being so confident.
    Which of course we won't, because "commercial confidentiality".

    Precedents are not promising.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,943

    Covid corruption commissioner. Hello...

    This is a highly political speech.

    I think she's positioning herself nicely if SKS falls.
    She is ghastly, totally over-promoted, unappealing, lying on her CV and obviously out of her depth.

    But given the likely contenders (Lammy, Rayner, etc.) she may even be the best choice. Which says a huge amount about the Labour Party.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,905

    Taz said:

    Covid Corruption Commissioner.

    Another Quango that will deliver little apart from nice salaries for those who are employed by it.

    I've already applied to lead the enquiry into the Covid Corruption Commission.

    Anyone want to apply for the enquiry into my enquiry?
    We need an Enquiry Tsa to oversee them all.
  • Nigelb said:

    Good chart comparing previous budget tax rises as a percentage of GDP over the last 50 years.
    https://x.com/ArchieHall/status/1851553092963013099

    Lamont still, narrowly, the record holder.

    That's was on 35 billion tax rises. This surpasses Lamont and is the largest in at least 50 years.
    You can't compare cash figures decades apart.

    Percentage of GDP is only rational way to look at it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,072
    Forecast seems to be for lower growth overall (from the Guardian). Total +8.2% down from +8.5% to 2028. Not a big change, but the wrong direction.

    GDP in 2024: +1.1%, up from 0.8% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2025: +2%, up from 1.9% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2026: +1.8%, down from 2.0% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2027: +1.5%, down from 1.8% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2028: +1.5% down from 1.7% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2029: +1.6%, a new forecast
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,793
    Reeves doing a lot of non chancellor stuff to mask and keep short the tax rises coming - labour loves spending other peoples money
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    OT rcs seems to have reinstated the irritatingly frequent saving of drafts.

    I thought we were doing chess puns, not draughts?
    I’ll En passant on this one.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Fucks sake the "investment" is on carbon capture - why can't the state simply buy some turbines and get the return from the north sea ?!

    As I said the other day, my friend says Ed Miliband is the embodiment of the competence of Chris Grayling and the ideological entrenchment of Jeremy Corbyn.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,670
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    It's real GDP growth - but any growth per head is likely to be offset by tax increases.

    £40 bn in tax rises is about 1.5% of GDP.

    The government seems to have given up on growing the economy before it even started.
    The projected growth figures are dismal.

    However, tax cuts and structural deficits only produce sugar-rush growth. Proper investment, if well-targeted, will do more. But scrapping red tape (eg on planning) would do much more again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Fuel duty frozen - means bigger increase elsewhere
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784
    Pulpstar said:

    Balanced budget in 2028. Bookmark that.

    Not going to happen. As Osborne found people won't punish you for missing such targets if they still feel OK.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,157
    Fuel duty frozen next year.

    Ouch !!!!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,741
    No fuel duty rise.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487

    Fuel duty frozen - means bigger increase elsewhere

    How odd. Fuel being cheap at the moment would make this easy. Wonder what Miliband thinks.

    Doing my self-employment tax return as I watch.
  • Reeves scrapping the Tories meat tax fuel duty rise.

    So more to rise elsewhere...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,063
    Nigelb said:

    Good chart comparing previous budget tax rises as a percentage of GDP over the last 50 years.
    https://x.com/ArchieHall/status/1851553092963013099

    Lamont still, narrowly, the record holder.

    Though that was only half a budget, really. Ken Clarke had another chunky bite six months later. See also Rishi's two goes in 2021.

    Moral: it's a lot (getting on for £1000 per taxpayer?), but it has to be a lot given the mad numbers inherited. But it's not unprecedentedly a lot.

    And yes, it's Scrooge now to give space to be Santa later. Because that's what governments in control of events do. Because politically, that works.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,170
    Taz said:

    Covid Corruption Commissioner.

    Another Quango that will deliver little apart from nice salaries for those who are employed by it.

    What will they achieve that has not been looked at? Seriously? Have the police NOT looked at what has happened (or is someone else's role?)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474

    Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he really is. And if the only place he goes for 'walking' holidays is the Lake District, then it'll just be North London on holiday: going to the same artisan shops and meeting the same sorts of people they know from home. And only, I'm guessing, in the season.

    The sheer lack of imagination that causes people to go to the Lake District for walking holidays, when there's the rest of the brilliant UK to choose from, is staggering. Wainwright has a lot to answer for.
    I'd argue the Lake District is superb for a walking holiday - huge range of terrain, some very remote spots that are not actually that remote but feel like they are, a region set up for tourism. Of course other parts are great too, but most people don't restrict themselves to just the Lakes.
    It is, for one or two trips. The problem is that it is filled with second-homers (I wonder if SKS has one...?), and your comments about "remote but not remote" can be made for many other places as well - the Peak District for one.

    The Lake District is popular amongst some because they can go there and be with people like them. A bit like Southwold; well, Walberswick at least. ;)

    (I love Southwold and Walberswick, but realise the issues.)
    I've been visiting, irregularly, for over fifty years.
    "Good for one or two trips" is rubbish.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    Forecast seems to be for lower growth overall (from the Guardian). Total +8.2% down from +8.5% to 2028. Not a big change, but the wrong direction.

    GDP in 2024: +1.1%, up from 0.8% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2025: +2%, up from 1.9% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2026: +1.8%, down from 2.0% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2027: +1.5%, down from 1.8% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2028: +1.5% down from 1.7% growth forecast at the March budget
    GDP in 2029: +1.6%, a new forecast

    That's a reduction in the trend growth rate from 1.8% per year to 1.5% per year which is because of the net productivity loss from the tax rises. I'd be surprised if it was as high as 1.5% as well, we'll probably get closer to 1.2% in the end with taxes on business and individuals rising by such a large amount.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Employers NI up by 1.2%
  • Nigelb said:

    Good chart comparing previous budget tax rises as a percentage of GDP over the last 50 years.
    https://x.com/ArchieHall/status/1851553092963013099

    Lamont still, narrowly, the record holder.

    That's was on 35 billion tax rises. This surpasses Lamont and is the largest in at least 50 years.
    You can't compare cash figures decades apart.

    Percentage of GDP is only rational way to look at it.
    Well quite, this would be a larger percentage of GDP. The point I was making was that chart was making the comparison with the tax rises today only being 35 billion, not 40 billion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,839
    Good news, we do about 25,000 miles between us a year.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,072
    Amazed that fuel duty is frozen. The country can't afford it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,157

    Taz said:

    Covid Corruption Commissioner.

    Another Quango that will deliver little apart from nice salaries for those who are employed by it.

    What will they achieve that has not been looked at? Seriously? Have the police NOT looked at what has happened (or is someone else's role?)
    It is all just performative. It is unlikely to achieve anything.
  • Absolutely mad on business
  • Fuel duty frozen - means bigger increase elsewhere

    Fuck’s sake.

    As the owner of electric vehicles I was hoping for the fuel duty to go up a lot as it is a tax I do not pay.
  • £25bn tax on jobs? noice
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420
    Big reduction in the threshold on employer nics

    Fuel duty freeze is a surprise
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,157

    Fuel duty frozen - means bigger increase elsewhere

    Fuck’s sake.

    As the owner of electric vehicles I was hoping for the fuel duty to go up a lot as it is a tax I do not pay.
    I mostly cycle, so same here.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,741
    edited October 30
    Ooft, that lowering of the starting threshold is painful
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420

    Covid corruption commissioner. Hello...

    This is a highly political speech.

    I think she's positioning herself nicely if SKS falls.
    She’s good. Impressive delivery
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Capital gains tax next..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,565
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    How red tape holds back nuclear power in Britain
    And how to fix it

    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/how-red-tape-holds-back-nuclear-power
    ...Although Hinkley Point C uses the same EPR design as in Finland and France, the UK’s nuclear regulator insisted on 7,000 changes such as the requirement of having both an analog and digital control centre. France’s Flamanville only has the latter. Hinkley Point C will use 25% more concrete and 35% more steel than other EPRs as a result.

    All of this makes the kind of fleet-based approach that works in South Korea (and worked in France and Britain historically) next-to-impossible. You do not get the benefits of learning-by-doing or supply chain investment, if there’s no certainty around what you are building and when you will be building it, if at all.

    Beyond planning, there is the problem that our regulators treat nuclear differently to any other technology when it comes to safety.

    The underlying principle governing the regulation of radiation in Britain is ‘As Low as Reasonably Practicable’ or ALARP. In effect, it means that whenever a productivity gain in nuclear construction is discovered, it is seen as an opportunity to make the safest way to produce electricity even safer. The Office for Nuclear Regulation’s starting point for whether or not nuclear safety measures are ‘grossly disproportionate’ is if costs outweigh benefits by a factor of ten.

    Not only does this make nuclear uncompetitive, it also makes the public less safe because instead of using safe nuclear, we burn dirty gas (or until very recently, coal) where similarly costly regulations aren’t being imposed...


    Much of this is not new to PBers, but very good article.

    The requirement to have both analog and digital control reminds me of the Chinook comedy....
    So you have 2 dials with different figures htf do you know which one is correct and which is wrong?
    ahem


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,366
    Fuel duty was surely an easy one, price at the pump is down from highs, hasn't risen for forever.

    Bit weird bus wankers have got hammered, but not drivers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,198
    Nigelb said:

    Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he really is. And if the only place he goes for 'walking' holidays is the Lake District, then it'll just be North London on holiday: going to the same artisan shops and meeting the same sorts of people they know from home. And only, I'm guessing, in the season.

    The sheer lack of imagination that causes people to go to the Lake District for walking holidays, when there's the rest of the brilliant UK to choose from, is staggering. Wainwright has a lot to answer for.
    I'd argue the Lake District is superb for a walking holiday - huge range of terrain, some very remote spots that are not actually that remote but feel like they are, a region set up for tourism. Of course other parts are great too, but most people don't restrict themselves to just the Lakes.
    It is, for one or two trips. The problem is that it is filled with second-homers (I wonder if SKS has one...?), and your comments about "remote but not remote" can be made for many other places as well - the Peak District for one.

    The Lake District is popular amongst some because they can go there and be with people like them. A bit like Southwold; well, Walberswick at least. ;)

    (I love Southwold and Walberswick, but realise the issues.)
    I've been visiting, irregularly, for over fifty years.
    "Good for one or two trips" is rubbish.
    No, I mean at a time. The 'irregularly' makes my point: at least, I assume you go elsewhere as well to go 'walking' ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,157
    CGT now.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,584

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    The F*ck Business Budget ?

    The corporate tax roadmap will be one of the bright spots and has been well consulted. Aside from possible employer NI rises this one is looking pretty decent for companies, all things considered.
    Is it ?
    Well over half the anticipated tax increases fall on employers - and the well above inflation minimum wage rise will also drive up employment costs.
    Businesses employing few people will do fairly well; the rest get something of a caning.

    Whether that all works out depends a lot on what's done on the spending side.
    For micro businesses a big question here is the employers allowance. The first £5k of employers national insurance is free so if you are employing 1 person or two or three part time, the actual rate doesn't matter if that allowance is kept.
    Very significant change for micro businesses to have this increase to £10k. Far more impact than the changes in the rate.
  • £25bn tax on jobs? noice

    But a more than doubling in the Employers Allowance to protect small business. Which massively takes the sting out of the jobs tax.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    Fuel duty was surely an easy one, price at the pump is down from highs, hasn't risen for forever.

    Bit weird bus wankers have got hammered, but not drivers.

    Bad decision. Really don't understand that one
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    edited October 30
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    It's real GDP growth - but any growth per head is likely to be offset by tax increases.

    £40 bn in tax rises is about 1.5% of GDP.

    The government seems to have given up on growing the economy before it even started.
    The projected growth figures are dismal.

    However, tax cuts and structural deficits only produce sugar-rush growth. Proper investment, if well-targeted, will do more. But scrapping red tape (eg on planning) would do much more again.
    I think that's correct. But, what we're getting is simply redistribution from the private to public sectors. I'll believe that red tape will be scrapped by a Labour government the day that I meet a unicorn.
    Either it happens in the next twelve months, or it's the usual rubbish.
    It wouldn't actually be hard to do in specific sectors. It just requires the will.

    And it's the one really big economically beneficial thing government can do without spending hard cash.
    Which is why there's still a small chance of it's actually happening.
    (Not holding my breath, though.)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    Ooft, that lowering of the starting threshold is painful

    The announcement on small business NI relief helps the pubs though
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    I can live with this, 24% still feels fair for risk takers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,569

    Covid corruption commissioner. Hello...

    This is a highly political speech.

    I think she's positioning herself nicely if SKS falls.
    She’s good. Impressive delivery
    RACHEL
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,569

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    Bit of a hike for the lower rate!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Inheritance tax:

    Thresholds frozen to 2030
    Inherited pensions in by 2027
    Agricultural and business property in scope
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,170

    Are we still on this “Starmer is actually a North London luvvie” stuff? For goodness sake, no he isn’t.

    Yes, he really is. And if the only place he goes for 'walking' holidays is the Lake District, then it'll just be North London on holiday: going to the same artisan shops and meeting the same sorts of people they know from home. And only, I'm guessing, in the season.

    The sheer lack of imagination that causes people to go to the Lake District for walking holidays, when there's the rest of the brilliant UK to choose from, is staggering. Wainwright has a lot to answer for.
    I'd argue the Lake District is superb for a walking holiday - huge range of terrain, some very remote spots that are not actually that remote but feel like they are, a region set up for tourism. Of course other parts are great too, but most people don't restrict themselves to just the Lakes.
    It is, for one or two trips. The problem is that it is filled with second-homers (I wonder if SKS has one...?), and your comments about "remote but not remote" can be made for many other places as well - the Peak District for one.

    The Lake District is popular amongst some because they can go there and be with people like them. A bit like Southwold; well, Walberswick at least. ;)

    (I love Southwold and Walberswick, but realise the issues.)
    There are many versions of the Lake District and many versions of a holiday there. I tend to stay in a cottage, have nice long walks to the tops of fells and back and then enjoy a pint or two. Other never leave low ground, mooch around the shops in Keswick, Ambleside and Windermere. I rather like that relatively small area of the lakes, as opposed to say the vastness of Scottish hills/mountains or even the Dales.
    That said North Wales gets to combine the superb mountains of Snowdonia (take that wokesters) plus superb sandy beaches.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,584
    TimS said:

    Fuel duty was surely an easy one, price at the pump is down from highs, hasn't risen for forever.

    Bit weird bus wankers have got hammered, but not drivers.

    Bad decision. Really don't understand that one
    Politics and headlines obviously. Agree bad call.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    These growth figures imply a drop in GDP per capita so people will feel poorer and be paying more tax. Disposable incomes are going to fall quite substantially over the next 5 years I think.

    It's real GDP growth - but any growth per head is likely to be offset by tax increases.

    £40 bn in tax rises is about 1.5% of GDP.

    The government seems to have given up on growing the economy before it even started.
    The projected growth figures are dismal.

    However, tax cuts and structural deficits only produce sugar-rush growth. Proper investment, if well-targeted, will do more. But scrapping red tape (eg on planning) would do much more again.
    I think that's correct. But, what we're getting is simply redistribution from the private to public sectors. I'll believe that red tape will be scrapped by a Labour government the day that I meet a unicorn.
    They're mainly interested in rewarding their client groups
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,778

    Amazed that fuel duty is frozen. The country can't afford it.

    A rise would be regressive, no?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,170
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Covid Corruption Commissioner.

    Another Quango that will deliver little apart from nice salaries for those who are employed by it.

    What will they achieve that has not been looked at? Seriously? Have the police NOT looked at what has happened (or is someone else's role?)
    It is all just performative. It is unlikely to achieve anything.
    Quite. If the crime was so evident, why has it not been dealt with?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    Inheritance tax:

    Thresholds frozen to 2030
    Inherited pensions in by 2027
    Agricultural and business property in scope

    Farming sector, destroyed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784

    Amazed that fuel duty is frozen. The country can't afford it.

    Politics!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    MaxPB said:

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    I can live with this, 24% still feels fair for risk takers.
    Big increase at lower rate
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,281

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    Bit of a hike for the lower rate!
    Serves working people right for dabbling in shares.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,839
    MaxPB said:

    Inheritance tax:

    Thresholds frozen to 2030
    Inherited pensions in by 2027
    Agricultural and business property in scope

    Farming sector, destroyed.
    Business could and should be in scope. Agriculture is a different kettle of fish though.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,545
    20% CGT on AiM shares.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,418
    RobD said:

    Amazed that fuel duty is frozen. The country can't afford it.

    A rise would be regressive, no?
    The opposite.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,130

    Inheritance tax:

    Thresholds frozen to 2030
    Inherited pensions in by 2027
    Agricultural and business property in scope

    Taking pensions into IHT will piss quite a few people off. Ditto taxing business property.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,670

    Fuel duty was surely an easy one, price at the pump is down from highs, hasn't risen for forever.

    Bit weird bus wankers have got hammered, but not drivers.

    Bus use tends to be pretty price inelastic and routes being cut has more political impact than fares. One consequence of the cap has been a reduction in routes because of the reduced income. I assume the govt (and Labour mayors around the country) are trying to get routes back, or at least not cut further.

    Though I agree the fuel duty rise should have been an easy hit, particularly alongside the bus fare cap rise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474

    MaxPB said:

    Inheritance tax:

    Thresholds frozen to 2030
    Inherited pensions in by 2027
    Agricultural and business property in scope

    Farming sector, destroyed.
    All farms to be owned by offshore companies, you mean?
    Along with all offshore wind farms.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    MaxPB said:

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    I can live with this, 24% still feels fair for risk takers.
    Big increase at lower rate
    Yeah but it's not unreasonable and really how many CGT payers have very much lower rate available to them? It's actually a good way to increase revenue from retired people who are more likely to have income lower than £50k.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    APT increase on private jets up by 50%

    Trying to goad Sunak.. but fell flat
  • Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    This government hates me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Cutting draft beer duty by 1.7%

    She's learned a little bit of politics
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,741
    Lower business rates for retail leisure and hospitality. Excellent.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,584

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    Bit of a hike for the lower rate!
    Serves working people right for dabbling in shares.
    If you are dabbling in shares you get 20k per year ISA allowance, pension contributions and an annual CGT allowance. A bit of dabbling doesnt generate any tax.
  • RobD said:

    Amazed that fuel duty is frozen. The country can't afford it.

    A rise would be regressive, no?
    Absolutely! It's the most regressive tax there is, those who can afford a new EV don't pay a penny. Those who can afford a new hybrid pay less. Those who rely on their old banger get stung.

    And it's a pointless tax to raise anyway since it's getting phase out. Raise it today and you'll have a bigger black hole in the future.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420
    A penny off a pint!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    Cutting draft beer duty by 1.7%

    She's learned a little bit of politics

    She reads PB, clearly. All that loud worrying about pub prices yesterday.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,130

    Capital gains rises...

    Lower rate from 10% to 18%
    Higher rate from 20% to 24%

    This government hates me.
    I've come to the conclusion that no government, of any political persuasion, is on my side.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    Non-doms abolished for residency scheme for temporary residents - not clear on details
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    Covid corruption commissioner. Hello...

    This is a highly political speech.

    I think she's positioning herself nicely if SKS falls.
    She’s good. Impressive delivery
    It’s hardly taxing work
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    Cutting draft beer duty by 1.7%

    She's learned a little bit of politics

    But what qualifies as craft, I mean most of the "craft" beer brands in the UK are owned by the big drinks conglomerates now. I hope this is defined properly.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,741
    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,418

    RobD said:

    Amazed that fuel duty is frozen. The country can't afford it.

    A rise would be regressive, no?
    Absolutely! It's the most regressive tax there is, those who can afford a new EV don't pay a penny. Those who can afford a new hybrid pay less. Those who rely on their old banger get stung.

    And it's a pointless tax to raise anyway since it's getting phase out. Raise it today and you'll have a bigger black hole in the future.
    Simply not true. Mileage and car ownership increase in line with incomes.

    The EV thing is a complication that they will need o fix at some point.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,569

    A penny off a pint!

    Some non-alcoholic beer for me, please :lol:
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    MaxPB said:

    Cutting draft beer duty by 1.7%

    She's learned a little bit of politics

    But what qualifies as craft, I mean most of the "craft" beer brands in the UK are owned by the big drinks conglomerates now. I hope this is defined properly.
    Draft not Craft
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,211
    MaxPB said:

    Cutting draft beer duty by 1.7%

    She's learned a little bit of politics

    But what qualifies as craft, I mean most of the "craft" beer brands in the UK are owned by the big drinks conglomerates now. I hope this is defined properly.
    Draught I think she said
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487

    Still not convinced this is all adding up….. but difficult to say at this point

    We haven't had the rabbit out of the hat yet...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,905
    edited October 30
    MaxPB said:

    Cutting draft beer duty by 1.7%

    She's learned a little bit of politics

    But what qualifies as craft, I mean most of the "craft" beer brands in the UK are owned by the big drinks conglomerates now. I hope this is defined properly.
    “Draught” not “craft”.
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