Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
mostly #5 with an chunk of 'what do I say to the Yanks at work who have to go back and live with it for the next 4 years/'
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6 But heavily qualified. No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
However Trump isn't particularly well and will probably be sidelined in short order to be replaced by Vance who may not have the same unwillingness to go to war.
In this - or that - context, somewhat ironic that Dick Cheney's daughter Liz Cheney is actively campaigning for - and with - Kamala Harris.
Frankly one reason methinks why Cheney the Younger is NOT an unmixed blessing for Harris, seeing as how good portion of support for Trump is based on DJT isolationist, no-more-forever-wars rhetoric.
Quite.
A lot of these people are against Trump because he doesn't like war very much. One of the few times he received warm coverage from the media when he was President was when he started lobbing missiles at Assad. Everything was forgiven when they thought he might be going neocon.
Yes, comrade.
We are against Trump for that reason alone. Not because he is a criminal, a woman-abuser, a fraudster and a nasty racist who wants to remove loads of rights from people, including women. Oh, and wants to deport millions of people. No, those are all *perfectly* fine. (/sarcasm, obvs.)
I didn't actually mention you or the PB commentariat, but I suspect your projection rather speaks for itself.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
I'd say the GOP went wrong when they played along with Trump's "I didn't lose, I was cheated" claims.
It likely seemed a good way of avoiding blame for defeat but lumbered them into effectively accepting him as candidate again.
I wonder if they thought Trump would just disappear after his defeat.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
I couldn’t care less about the silly moniker, I just think your trying to start online arguments about the Middle East when you are smashed on cider is a bit… weird.
I don't think I've had any cider in many months..
You saying "start arguments" means you disagree with me
If you agreed with me you'd call it "stating facts"
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
You keep peddling this line that the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump.
I suspect if they had been then Trump would be dead.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
You keep peddling this line that the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump.
I suspect if they had been then Trump would be dead.
Yes. The Ukrainians have been pretty successful with their assassinations.
The Dems have pulled increased advertising for all 3 house districts around Clark. That suggests confidence. Rosen is also polling well ahead. Seems odd to think Harris would poll significantly behind these other races.
Jon Ralston himself likes to build the suspense, but noted at the beginning of his ev blog that the vote would be impossible to read due to the high numbers of unaffiliated or third party voters, due to a process change. That’s a very relevant comment.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
You keep peddling this line that the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump.
I suspect if they had been then Trump would be dead.
When we witnessed the original Pennsylvania shooting (which remains deeply weird) I speculated that there might be some Ukrainian involvement. Then we had the 2nd sassytempt at the golf course and it turned out I’m a fucking genius
“Suspected Gunman Said He Was Willing to Fight and Die in Ukraine Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, told The New York Times in 2023 that he had traveled to Ukraine and wanted to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight there.”
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those are just the ones we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings, and wouldn't be surprised if although not registered to him (who it is registered to, is always omitted) the police seem very aware of him and his associates, so probably did have a very good idea it was him in the car.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
The extent to which the press is gagged in this country at the present time is a disgrace - it would make a banana republic blush.
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those are just the ones we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
Indeed. And the Guardian is still trying to shit-stir this into Geo Floyd 2.0
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
The extent to which the press is gagged in this country at the present time is a disgrace - it would make a banana republic blush.
The pendulum does seem to have swung too far the other way, in which we weren't allowed to know about Huw Edwards. That wasn't a story about a footballer shagging an Only Fans model on the side, it was much more serious and we now know it was a window into what he was really like.
Arkansas now hoping that a superior battery technology that doesn't use lithium doesn't soon become commercially viable.
There is a long, long history of the games played with definitions of
"Formation" "Sample area" "Proven reserve" etc..
A small number of stupid people have gone to prison. A much larger number of a slightly less dumb people banked the money they took from the rubes, paid their taxes and enjoyed their yachts.
I will believe in a find (as above) when there is some more confirmation.
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those are just the ones we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
Indeed. And the Guardian is still trying to shit-stir this into Geo Floyd 2.0
Thankfully a judge after 16hrs of thinking about and the police making very strong representation came to a sensible decision that finally the public were allowed to know.
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those are just the ones we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings, and wouldn't be surprised if although not registered to him (who it is registered to, is always omitted) the police seem very aware of him and his associates, so probably did have a very good idea it was him in the car.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
Why is it that this police shooting went to trial when so many others, of people who weren't guilty of any crime, did not?
Only one picture allowance, so here is the ceiling of Ely Cathedral today:
Lovely!
One of THE most beautiful cathedrals - buildings?! - on this good green earth, and particularly special because it is equally exquisite inside and out. Looking up at the lantern from the nave is as spellbinding as seeing Ely rise like a ship over the Fenland mist
In getting a tiny bit homesick from my hotel room in Kyoto. Tho not sick enough to actually come home…
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
The extent to which the press is gagged in this country at the present time is a disgrace - it would make a banana republic blush.
The pendulum does seem to have swung too far the other way, in which we weren't allowed to know about Huw Edwards. That wasn't a story about a footballer shagging an Only Fans model on the side, it was much more serious and we now know it was a window into what he was really like.
It's not just Huw Edwards, it's every wealthy, famous and powerful person, including senior politicians. Journalists not only have to stand the story up (as they should) they also now have to prove to what appears to be activist judges that the story is in 'the public interest' - what these judges view as 'not in the public interest' occasionally becomes apparent when stories like Edwards and the Kaba come out.
I'm having clams tonight. With loads of garlic and butter. And white wine, chilli flakes, lemon juice and zest, and parsley and chives, mixed into linguine
Mouth-watering. Which is way better than eye-watering.
Incidentially, whereas UKer are inclined to say that some large number is eye-watering, us USers will say that it's eye-popping.
Seem bigness tends to make you guys slightly ill, whereas it impresses Americans whether they like it or not.
I think you have that wrong, SSI2.
We might call a bill eye watering; no one receiving a bonus would call it that - unless it was painfully small.
Only one picture allowance, so here is the ceiling of Ely Cathedral today:
Lovely!
One of THE most beautiful cathedrals - buildings?! - on this good green earth, and particularly special because it is equally exquisite inside and out. Looking up at the lantern from the nave is as spellbinding as seeing Ely rise like a ship over the Fenland mist
In getting a tiny bit homesick from my hotel room in Kyoto. Tho not sick enough to actually come home…
Yeah, I was torn between posting that picture or a picture of a Boeing AWACS plane that flew right above me when outside the main entrance (possibly flying from one of the US bases nearby). Maybe tomorrow!
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Not the generals that ended up hanging by piano wires presumably.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
You keep peddling this line that the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump.
I suspect if they had been then Trump would be dead.
When we witnessed the original Pennsylvania shooting (which remains deeply weird) I speculated that there might be some Ukrainian involvement. Then we had the 2nd sassytempt at the golf course and it turned out I’m a fucking genius
“Suspected Gunman Said He Was Willing to Fight and Die in Ukraine Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, told The New York Times in 2023 that he had traveled to Ukraine and wanted to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight there.”
Routh claimed on his social media accounts, as well as in 2022 interviews with The New York Times, Newsweek Romania, and Der Tagesspiegel to have made efforts to recruit foreign soldiers for Ukraine in its war against Russia.[21][25][26] Newsweek reported Routh had claimed to have fought in Ukraine,[21] while he told The New York Times he did not fight in Ukraine.[27] Routh said in a 2022 interview with a Romanian reporter in Kyiv that he flew to Ukraine to join the army in the months after Russia's full-scale invasion, but learned that he was "not an ideal candidate" for the battlefield because he was in his mid-50s with no military experience. Later in 2022, Routh said in an interview that after he was rejected for military service, he began recruiting volunteer soldiers for the Ukrainian military.[28] Routh complained of roadblocks to Ukraine admitting foreign fighters, telling the publication Semafor that "Ukraine is very often hard to work with, they're afraid that anybody and everybody is a Russian spy".[19] Routh was filmed at an April 2022 protest in Independence Square in Kyiv.[29]
A former volunteer for Ukraine's International Legion, Evelyn Aschenbrenner, branded Routh as "delusional" and a "liar" over his claims that he recruited for the Ukrainian organization, saying Routh was "not, and never has been, associated with the International Legion or the Ukrainian Armed Forces at all". Aschenbrenner said of Routh "He was combative. He was argumentative. He refused repeatedly to understand basic army policy", further adding "There was delusions of grandeur and [he was] very disconnected from reality". The International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine said in a statement that Routh had "never been part of, associated with, or linked" to it "in any capacity."[30][31][32]
Chelsea Walsh, a travel nurse who'd met Routh in Ukraine, viewed Routh as "a threat to others" and a "ticking time bomb", and warned a Homeland Security agent upon her return from Ukraine. Routh had also claimed to her to have organized a protest outside President Volodymyr Zelensky's home and was jailed for it, but this was not confirmed.
Also, I wish you’d stop peddling the “Korean Armistice” shite. As I’ve regularly pointed out, it’s not even vaguely comparable.
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Yes. I am sure that *this time* Trump saying something authoritarian and batshit insane will have a material effect on his popularity, unlike the previous eleventy billion times when him doing so was minimised by other Republicans and the media, and his supporters either shrugged it off, or accepted it as a natural good thing. This time it will break through. This time it is different. This time.
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those are just the ones we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings, and wouldn't be surprised if although not registered to him (who it is registered to, is always omitted) the police seem very aware of him and his associates, so probably did have a very good idea it was him in the car.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
Why is it that this police shooting went to trial when so many others, of people who weren't guilty of any crime, did not?
So many? I think it was stated earlier that there are something like 6 a year, on average. Presumably not many in there of innocent bystanders. I'm not saying there's none, but they're gratifyingly rare.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
I couldn’t care less about the silly moniker, I just think your trying to start online arguments about the Middle East when you are smashed on cider is a bit… weird.
I don't think I've had any cider in many months..
You saying "start arguments" means you disagree with me
If you agreed with me you'd call it "stating facts"
Do you see your bias now?
Not really, I’m talking about your odd habit of arriving on the site and saying words to the effect of “right, any PBers think x about the Middle East because if they do they must be anti-Zionists” when nobody was even discussing the Middle East.
The more we hear about the Chris Kaba case, the worse it is.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those are just the ones we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings, and wouldn't be surprised if although not registered to him (who it is registered to, is always omitted) the police seem very aware of him and his associates, so probably did have a very good idea it was him in the car.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
Why is it that this police shooting went to trial when so many others, of people who weren't guilty of any crime, did not?
because no-one trusts the met anymore because they seem to be rife with wrong-uns
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
You keep peddling this line that the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump.
I suspect if they had been then Trump would be dead.
When we witnessed the original Pennsylvania shooting (which remains deeply weird) I speculated that there might be some Ukrainian involvement. Then we had the 2nd sassytempt at the golf course and it turned out I’m a fucking genius
“Suspected Gunman Said He Was Willing to Fight and Die in Ukraine Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, told The New York Times in 2023 that he had traveled to Ukraine and wanted to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight there.”
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Democratic advantage over Republicans in post Cold War elections, in ascending order of Democratic advantage.
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Not the generals that ended up hanging by piano wires presumably.
Or Dönitz who unconditionally surrendered. The loser.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Democratic advantage over Republicans in post Cold War elections, in ascending order of Democratic advantage.
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
It is *slightly* cheating because 1992 and 1996 were years when Ross Perot took more from the Republicans than the Democrats.
(Perot was also strongly protectionist - and a nutter - and makes an interesting proto-Trump.)
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Democratic advantage over Republicans in post Cold War elections, in ascending order of Democratic advantage.
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
He’s third and fifth best in that sample (no idea how he compares to earlier years) so there’s maybe a very slight point there I guess, although hardly an overwhelming one. And I’m not sure it says anything much about Haley’s prospects. I think she would probably have won the PV, but who knows.
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Not the generals that ended up hanging by piano wires presumably.
Or Dönitz who unconditionally surrendered. The loser.
Donuts was a hateful shit. Read the story of how he had a couple of German sailors shot for celebrating the war was over.
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Democratic advantage over Republicans in post Cold War elections, in ascending order of Democratic advantage.
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
It is *slightly* cheating because 1992 and 1996 were years when Ross Perot took more from the Republicans than the Democrats.
(Perot was also strongly protectionist - and a nutter - and makes an interesting proto-Trump.)
Perot wouldn't have been so successful if the Republicans weren't struggling to connect with their voters, so I don't think that he particularly detracts from my point - mainstream Republicanism is in a bad way, and it's mistaken to think that they'd be doing better without Trump (except insofar that, if they had a politician who could take on Trump and win, without being more batshit insane than Trump, then they'd likely have a much more able politician than anyone else in elected office).
The average Democratic advantage in @LostPassword ’s list is +3.7 isn’t it? So Trump has fought one slightly better than the average and one slightly worse?
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Didn't Hitler's generals try to blow him up?
Only when they had time on their hands. Previously they had been so busy marching into other peoples countries on Hitlers orders, stealing everything not nailed down and taking huge bribes from Hitler to have time for any of that assassination stuff.
Start losing the war, and their calendars freed up. Though it was notable that the leadership of one of the largest armies in human history couldn't get hold of enough explosives to do a good job.
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Didn't Hitler's generals try to blow him up?
Only when they had time on their hands. Previously they had been so busy marching into other peoples countries on Hitlers orders, stealing everything not nailed down and taking huge bribes from Hitler to have time for any of that assassination stuff.
Start losing the war, and their calendars freed up. Though it was notable that the leadership of one of the largest armies in human history couldn't get hold of enough explosives to do a good job.
Labour Trumpgate scandal at full tilt on Newsnight. Trump's guy states this is wholly different from Farage and Reform rimming Trump.
Trump fanboi Jenrick's opinion on later.
I wonder if the wonks enjoy it even more, being told it’s taboo… feeling the soft subtle intricacies of foreign campaigning, and knowing they are stimulating the many nerve endings of the Kamala campaign…
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Democratic advantage over Republicans in post Cold War elections, in ascending order of Democratic advantage.
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
It is *slightly* cheating because 1992 and 1996 were years when Ross Perot took more from the Republicans than the Democrats.
(Perot was also strongly protectionist - and a nutter - and makes an interesting proto-Trump.)
Perot wouldn't have been so successful if the Republicans weren't struggling to connect with their voters, so I don't think that he particularly detracts from my point - mainstream Republicanism is in a bad way, and it's mistaken to think that they'd be doing better without Trump (except insofar that, if they had a politician who could take on Trump and win, without being more batshit insane than Trump, then they'd likely have a much more able politician than anyone else in elected office).
Why is it a mistake to think that? Trump is middle of the pack in your own list (3 & 5). What evidence do you have that Haley couldn’t do better?
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Democratic advantage over Republicans in post Cold War elections, in ascending order of Democratic advantage.
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
It is *slightly* cheating because 1992 and 1996 were years when Ross Perot took more from the Republicans than the Democrats.
(Perot was also strongly protectionist - and a nutter - and makes an interesting proto-Trump.)
Perot wouldn't have been so successful if the Republicans weren't struggling to connect with their voters, so I don't think that he particularly detracts from my point - mainstream Republicanism is in a bad way, and it's mistaken to think that they'd be doing better without Trump (except insofar that, if they had a politician who could take on Trump and win, without being more batshit insane than Trump, then they'd likely have a much more able politician than anyone else in elected office).
Why is it a mistake to think that? Trump is middle of the pack in your own list (3 & 5). What evidence do you have that Haley couldn’t do better?
Haley was crushed in the Primary campaign. Seems like pretty conclusive evidence to me.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
On the Afghanistan model what Trump would do would be to give Putin everything he needed to set him up for a successful invasion, but ask him to leave the actual invading until after Trump leaves office. So freeze the de-facto borders, stop sending arms and money to Ukraine, end the sanctions on Russia so they can rearm. That would suit Putin fine.
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
No Jonathan Gullis?
I like JRM, but he and the others should compete with other would-be candidates. I would be disappointed if he accepts this.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
The reason is that Republicans have failed at least as badly as Democrats in making life better for Americans, and Republicans are generally not that popular. Since the victory of George Bush the Elder in 1988 - the last Presidential election during the Cold War - there have been eight Presidential elections and the Republicans have won the popular vote in just one of them. And that arguably only because it was a war election.
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
Trump also lost the popular vote, when he won. So I’m not entirely clear on your point.
Democratic advantage over Republicans in post Cold War elections, in ascending order of Democratic advantage.
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
It is *slightly* cheating because 1992 and 1996 were years when Ross Perot took more from the Republicans than the Democrats.
(Perot was also strongly protectionist - and a nutter - and makes an interesting proto-Trump.)
Perot wouldn't have been so successful if the Republicans weren't struggling to connect with their voters, so I don't think that he particularly detracts from my point - mainstream Republicanism is in a bad way, and it's mistaken to think that they'd be doing better without Trump (except insofar that, if they had a politician who could take on Trump and win, without being more batshit insane than Trump, then they'd likely have a much more able politician than anyone else in elected office).
Why is it a mistake to think that? Trump is middle of the pack in your own list (3 & 5). What evidence do you have that Haley couldn’t do better?
Haley was crushed in the Primary campaign. Seems like pretty conclusive evidence to me.
I’m talking about in a general election, as were you. Any non Trumper would be crushed because it’s a Maga party now, so that’s a different point.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
Trump ordered the assassination of Soleimani who was instrumental in Putin’s involvement in Syria.
This is the part where a Trump foreign policy is a little bit ambiguous because he's pro-Russia, to the point where either they're blackmailing him or they're getting the same result as if they were blackmailing him, but hawkishly anti-Iran, which is a Russian ally. I think his middle-eastern policy ends up in wildly different places depending who he talks to.
Update on favourability numbers. BLUF: The gap narrows to Trump's advantage.
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6 Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8 This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
That’s before Trumps Hitler love-in !
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
Didn't Hitler's generals try to blow him up?
Only when they had time on their hands. Previously they had been so busy marching into other peoples countries on Hitlers orders, stealing everything not nailed down and taking huge bribes from Hitler to have time for any of that assassination stuff.
Start losing the war, and their calendars freed up. Though it was notable that the leadership of one of the largest armies in human history couldn't get hold of enough explosives to do a good job.
Bit like Speer and his stepladder (lack of).
“ he leadership of one of the largest armies”
Wasn’t it the navy?
No, the Navy kissed Hitler's arse to the very end.
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
No Jonathan Gullis?
I'd be amazed if any of these parachutes actually happens.
"The 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California's Butte County was the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California's history. The fire began on the morning of Thursday, November 8, 2018, when part of a poorly maintained Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) transmission line in the Feather River Canyon failed during strong katabatic winds. Those winds rapidly drove the Camp Fire through the communities of Concow, Magalia, Butte Creek Canyon, and Paradise, largely destroying them. The fire burned for another two weeks, and was contained on Sunday, November 25, after burning 153,336 acres (62,050 ha). The Camp Fire caused 85 fatalities, displaced more than 50,000 people, and destroyed more than 18,000 structures, causing an estimated $16.5 billion in damage. It was the most expensive natural disaster (by insured losses) of 2018."
Most of the loss of life could have been prevented had California Governor Newsom (D) acted. rationally. (In the very last hours, for example, he could have sent in helicopters to evacuate residents of Paradise.)
Appears to have been a very good polling day for Harris - 538 has reverted to 50:50 win percentage having been 53% Trump a couple of days ago.
Yet Betfair has moved further towards Tump today.
Yes Kamala now on 2.7! I'm tempted to lump even more on her. Already the biggest exposure I've ever had.
I have topped up a bit on Kamala too.
61p Green on Trump, £415 on Kamala to win as it stands
More on the state races and EC
You're in a healthy position. I'm not. I laid Trump bigtime about three years ago at about 9 when I though he didn't stand a chance.
Console yourself that you're not the person who was laying Kamala Harris at 50/1 18 months out. Even if they win, they'll have made a loss because of inflation.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
You keep peddling this line that the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump.
I suspect if they had been then Trump would be dead.
When we witnessed the original Pennsylvania shooting (which remains deeply weird) I speculated that there might be some Ukrainian involvement. Then we had the 2nd sassytempt at the golf course and it turned out I’m a fucking genius
“Suspected Gunman Said He Was Willing to Fight and Die in Ukraine Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, told The New York Times in 2023 that he had traveled to Ukraine and wanted to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight there.”
Routh claimed on his social media accounts, as well as in 2022 interviews with The New York Times, Newsweek Romania, and Der Tagesspiegel to have made efforts to recruit foreign soldiers for Ukraine in its war against Russia.[21][25][26] Newsweek reported Routh had claimed to have fought in Ukraine,[21] while he told The New York Times he did not fight in Ukraine.[27] Routh said in a 2022 interview with a Romanian reporter in Kyiv that he flew to Ukraine to join the army in the months after Russia's full-scale invasion, but learned that he was "not an ideal candidate" for the battlefield because he was in his mid-50s with no military experience. Later in 2022, Routh said in an interview that after he was rejected for military service, he began recruiting volunteer soldiers for the Ukrainian military.[28] Routh complained of roadblocks to Ukraine admitting foreign fighters, telling the publication Semafor that "Ukraine is very often hard to work with, they're afraid that anybody and everybody is a Russian spy".[19] Routh was filmed at an April 2022 protest in Independence Square in Kyiv.[29]
A former volunteer for Ukraine's International Legion, Evelyn Aschenbrenner, branded Routh as "delusional" and a "liar" over his claims that he recruited for the Ukrainian organization, saying Routh was "not, and never has been, associated with the International Legion or the Ukrainian Armed Forces at all". Aschenbrenner said of Routh "He was combative. He was argumentative. He refused repeatedly to understand basic army policy", further adding "There was delusions of grandeur and [he was] very disconnected from reality". The International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine said in a statement that Routh had "never been part of, associated with, or linked" to it "in any capacity."[30][31][32]
Chelsea Walsh, a travel nurse who'd met Routh in Ukraine, viewed Routh as "a threat to others" and a "ticking time bomb", and warned a Homeland Security agent upon her return from Ukraine. Routh had also claimed to her to have organized a protest outside President Volodymyr Zelensky's home and was jailed for it, but this was not confirmed.
Also, I wish you’d stop peddling the “Korean Armistice” shite. As I’ve regularly pointed out, it’s not even vaguely comparable.
I’m just right about everything, six months before everyone else
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
Trump ordered the assassination of Soleimani who was instrumental in Putin’s involvement in Syria.
This is the part where a Trump foreign policy is a little bit ambiguous because he's pro-Russia, to the point where either they're blackmailing him or they're getting the same result as if they were blackmailing him, but hawkishly anti-Iran, which is a Russian ally. I think his middle-eastern policy ends up in wildly different places depending who he talks to.
What substantive things did Russia get out of him? It was Biden who suspended sanctions on Nord Stream 2.
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
No Jonathan Gullis?
I'd be amazed if any of these parachutes actually happens.
I'd be surprised if Rishi goes after he said he will serve a full term. This speculation comes after weekend stories that Reform had a big name lined up for Rishi's seat.
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
No Jonathan Gullis?
I'd be amazed if any of these parachutes actually happens.
I was going to vote for Kemi but this is putting me off. I thought we'd seen the last of Mogg and don't want him turning up again like a bad penny. Or is this story a dirty trick by Jenrick to put off people like me?
Whilst I would not hope for an "exodus" of private school pupils to state schools - primarily because I am not sure the system could support it - I do think there is something to be said for private school pupils mixing with people that aren't necessarily of that background.
I was very insulated until I went to a state sixth form and I am glad I did as it certainly got me out of my bubble.
In terms of private schools generally, I would have much preferred to make state schools so good, private schools no longer needed to exist.
Lloyd George knew my father. Father knew Lloyd George.
Politicians love to go on and on about opening up opportunities and how this or that industry is not diverse enough because of the old boys network....but time and time and time again, we find the worst offenders of nepotism, politics.
When was the last time a successful parachute happened? Alec Douglas-Home took a seat in Kinross and West Perthshire in a by-election in 1963, but that wasn't engineered, the seat was already vacant I think.
Wow, Iain Dale saying three by elections after Kemi becomes LOTO. Sunak, Dowden and one other to go. Mordaunt, Shapps and Mogg to be parachuted in, short circuiting the mandatory candidate selection process.
No Jonathan Gullis?
I'd be amazed if any of these parachutes actually happens.
I'd be surprised if Rishi goes after he said he will serve a full term. This speculation comes after weekend stories that Reform had a big name lined up for Rishi's seat.
Big name? That's one with a lot of letters I assume? Farage, Anderson and Tice are already elected, that's it for public recognition.
Dr. Foxy -- and almost every mother -- will admire her personal story.
(For the record: I am not a wealthy man, but will be sending her a small contribution.)
Would you consider sending ME a small contribution? Seeing a how I'm sure I'm more un-wealthy than you!
Concur with JM that there's much to admire about Jaime Herrera Beutler. Speaking as someone who worked to beat her when she ran for re-election to Congress . . . TWICE, in 2018 and 2020.
However, IF I'd been a voter in her district in 2022 would most definitely have voted for her . . . after she had the courage and integrity to vote to impeach Donald Trump in January 2021. That she lost in the 2022 primary was a bummer . . . but at least the MAGA-maggot who beat her in August, lost the actual election in November.
I'm torn in 2024, would like to vote for her . . . but NOT for WA Commissioner of Public Lands, given her environmental voting record in US House. When the Seattle Times endorsed her for lands commissioner, they noted these votes but said they were willing to overlook them. Me, not so much.
No doubt that JHB has best chance of any GOP on the statewide ballot to actually get elected in 2024. One big factor in her favor, is that there are plenty of otherwide regular Democratic voters in WA who would like to vote for at least ONE candidate of the Republican party on their ballot. This year, JHB is the obvious choice
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
Trump ordered the assassination of Soleimani who was instrumental in Putin’s involvement in Syria.
This is the part where a Trump foreign policy is a little bit ambiguous because he's pro-Russia, to the point where either they're blackmailing him or they're getting the same result as if they were blackmailing him, but hawkishly anti-Iran, which is a Russian ally. I think his middle-eastern policy ends up in wildly different places depending who he talks to.
What substantive things did Russia get out of him? It was Biden who suspended sanctions on Nord Stream 2.
When was the last time a successful parachute happened? Alec Douglas-Home took a seat in Kinross and West Perthshire in a by-election in 1963, but that wasn't engineered, the seat was already vacant I think.
Correct. Wiki says local CUP had already selected a PPC, but he stepped to give the newly minted PM - and commoner - ADH a seat to run for, and win, in the HoC.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
Trump ordered the assassination of Soleimani who was instrumental in Putin’s involvement in Syria.
This is the part where a Trump foreign policy is a little bit ambiguous because he's pro-Russia, to the point where either they're blackmailing him or they're getting the same result as if they were blackmailing him, but hawkishly anti-Iran, which is a Russian ally. I think his middle-eastern policy ends up in wildly different places depending who he talks to.
What substantive things did Russia get out of him? It was Biden who suspended sanctions on Nord Stream 2.
Let’s catch our breath here for a minute. Realize the Russians were cheating. They were misusing the treaty against the US - as senior military and civilian leaders warned. Withdrawing denies Putin a collection tool - this is not a win for him.
. . . meanwhile out in the Little House on the Prairie, Great White North Edition . . .
CTV News Regina - Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says
The NDP appears to have some momentum in Saskatchewan’s provincial election campaign with less than a week until votes are tallied.
In a new exclusive poll from CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the NDP appears to have pulled ahead slightly among decided voters.
Surveyed between Oct. 18 and 20, 50 per cent of voters say they’ll cast their ballots for the NDP, compared to 45 per cent for the Saskatchewan Party, breaking a near tie shown in previous polling.
“They're still very, very close and they're still within that margin of error,” said Insightrix Research Director Lang McGilp. “But we are seeing a slight shift that's taken place since about a month ago right before the election was called to right now, where we've got 50 per cent of people saying that they would vote for the NDP and 45 for Sask. Party.”
Be a shame if Saskatchewan rejects the Saskatchewan Party. They've bugger all chance anywhere else after all. Vote for the frozen oblong.
"Frozen oblong" - Toooo bad that neither John Diefenbaker or Tommy Douglas are around to give you a classic Prairie politico tongue-lashing!
Speaking of Tommy Douglas (as we so often do)
per wiki -
The Saskatchewan Party is a conservative political party in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The party was founded in 1997 by a coalition of former provincial Progressive Conservative and Liberal Party members who sought to unite opposition to the governing New Democratic Party. Since 2007, the Saskatchewan Party has been the province's governing party, and both the party and the province are currently led by Premier Scott Moe.
Since first being elected to a majority government in 2007, the Saskatchewan Party has enjoyed a run of electoral success not seen in the province since the days of Tommy Douglas's Co-operative Commonwealth Federation [precursor of NDP]. In 2020, the SP was elected to its fourth consecutive majority government, a feat not achieved since the CCF led five majority governments between 1944 and 1964. This success has led observers to declare the SP the province's new natural governing party.
Dem early voting is down in Arizona. The straw-clutching explanation is that Dems are returning to pre-Covid voting patterns and will turn out on the day.
The Dem data for 2020 does look like a huge outlier.
As previously mentioned, AZ statewide turnout is down (-4.2%). Largely in part to fewer lower Dem TO (-8.3%). Independents are down 4% while GOP voters are even.
Dem early voting is down in Arizona. The straw-clutching explanation is that Dems are returning to pre-Covid voting patterns and will turn out on the day.
The Dem data for 2020 does look like a huge outlier.
As previously mentioned, AZ statewide turnout is down (-4.2%). Largely in part to fewer lower Dem TO (-8.3%). Independents are down 4% while GOP voters are even.
It's very hard to draw definitive conclusions about this stuff, because 2020 was peak Covid.
Historically, older Republicans have been the main mail in voters.
But in 2020, the Republicans didn't vote by mail because Trump told them not to. This year, he's telling people to vote by mail. And Dems, presumably, are less likely to be locked up in their homes.
So, I'd be wary about drawing anything too conclusive.
Comments
Trump reaches voters that other Republicans cannot touch, which is why he trounced the field in the 2016 primaries, and why he managed to enforce widespread acceptance of denial of being a big fat election loser.
People keep on arguing that a mainstream Republican like Haley would have won the Presidential election at a canter, because she would appeal to moderate Republicans and Independents much more than Trump, but I just don't see it. Mainstream Republicans kept on losing.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/researchers-say-arkansas-may-have-19m-tons-lithium-critical-battery-power.amp
https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxd4nlwwxvo
With Nicola Bulley it was headline news for weeks. This one seemed much more low key.
It likely seemed a good way of avoiding blame for defeat but lumbered them into effectively accepting him as candidate again.
I wonder if they thought Trump would just disappear after his defeat.
You saying "start arguments" means you disagree with me
If you agreed with me you'd call it "stating facts"
Do you see your bias now?
I suspect if they had been then Trump would be dead.
My other big bet goes the other way, +£200 if the election winner loses the popular vote, which I see as effectively a bet on Trump at about 2/1.
On the EC and States I do best on an implausible Harris landslide. Unlikely, but possible if the right groups turn out.
I'm not. I laid Trump bigtime about three years ago at about 9 when I though he didn't stand a chance.
The Dems have pulled increased advertising for all 3 house districts around Clark. That suggests confidence. Rosen is also polling well ahead. Seems odd to think Harris would poll significantly behind these other races.
Jon Ralston himself likes to build the suspense, but noted at the beginning of his ev blog that the vote would be impossible to read due to the high numbers of unaffiliated or third party voters, due to a process change. That’s a very relevant comment.
“Suspected Gunman Said He Was Willing to Fight and Die in Ukraine
Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, told The New York Times in 2023 that he had traveled to Ukraine and wanted to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight there.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/15/us/politics/trump-shooting-suspect-routh.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Fingers crossed for Kamala.
The media are showing us the shooting he perpetrated a couple of days before the hard stop, but the car and ultimately he was actually the prime suspect in 3 shooting (and those are just the ones we know of that tie the car and his DNA to the scene of the crime). No wonder the plod weren't messing about when they decided to stop him, and makes all the well they wouldn't have known it was him in particular was driving argument totally null and void. The police had this car at the scene of 3 shootings, and wouldn't be surprised if although not registered to him (who it is registered to, is always omitted) the police seem very aware of him and his associates, so probably did have a very good idea it was him in the car.
And of course, then there is the massive laundry list of crimes he was involved in. And the family have consistently used legal means to ban any reporting of his criminal past, even after the court case was over.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/22/black-lives-dont-matter-chris-kaba-verdict-stokes-old-frustrations-in-brixton
Despicable wankers
"Formation"
"Sample area"
"Proven reserve"
etc..
A small number of stupid people have gone to prison. A much larger number of a slightly less dumb people banked the money they took from the rubes, paid their taxes and enjoyed their yachts.
I will believe in a find (as above) when there is some more confirmation.
In North Carolina by Survey USA
Harris 47
Trump 46
You Gov for the Times UK
Harris 48
Trump 45
One of THE most beautiful cathedrals - buildings?! - on this good green earth, and particularly special because it is equally exquisite inside and out. Looking up at the lantern from the nave is as spellbinding as seeing Ely rise like a ship over the Fenland mist
In getting a tiny bit homesick from my hotel room in Kyoto. Tho not sick enough to actually come home…
Harris is now back into net negative territory, at -0.6
Trump's numbers are improving, he's now up to -8.8
This means that the Harris advantage over Trump on this metric is down to +8.2 - by way of context, Clinton was ~9pts ahead of Trump (-12 vs -21) on this measure in 2016.
This looks like a Trump-winning margin to me.
It will shock no one that Trump wanted his generals to be more like the ones that served under Hitler . His campaign of course refute these allegations but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s a duck !
We might call a bill eye watering; no one receiving a bonus would call it that - unless it was painfully small.
It’s the relative cost of extraction that counts.
Trump fanboi Jenrick's opinion on later.
Routh claimed on his social media accounts, as well as in 2022 interviews with The New York Times, Newsweek Romania, and Der Tagesspiegel to have made efforts to recruit foreign soldiers for Ukraine in its war against Russia.[21][25][26] Newsweek reported Routh had claimed to have fought in Ukraine,[21] while he told The New York Times he did not fight in Ukraine.[27] Routh said in a 2022 interview with a Romanian reporter in Kyiv that he flew to Ukraine to join the army in the months after Russia's full-scale invasion, but learned that he was "not an ideal candidate" for the battlefield because he was in his mid-50s with no military experience. Later in 2022, Routh said in an interview that after he was rejected for military service, he began recruiting volunteer soldiers for the Ukrainian military.[28] Routh complained of roadblocks to Ukraine admitting foreign fighters, telling the publication Semafor that "Ukraine is very often hard to work with, they're afraid that anybody and everybody is a Russian spy".[19] Routh was filmed at an April 2022 protest in Independence Square in Kyiv.[29]
A former volunteer for Ukraine's International Legion, Evelyn Aschenbrenner, branded Routh as "delusional" and a "liar" over his claims that he recruited for the Ukrainian organization, saying Routh was "not, and never has been, associated with the International Legion or the Ukrainian Armed Forces at all". Aschenbrenner said of Routh "He was combative. He was argumentative. He refused repeatedly to understand basic army policy", further adding "There was delusions of grandeur and [he was] very disconnected from reality". The International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine said in a statement that Routh had "never been part of, associated with, or linked" to it "in any capacity."[30][31][32]
Chelsea Walsh, a travel nurse who'd met Routh in Ukraine, viewed Routh as "a threat to others" and a "ticking time bomb", and warned a Homeland Security agent upon her return from Ukraine. Routh had also claimed to her to have organized a protest outside President Volodymyr Zelensky's home and was jailed for it, but this was not confirmed.
Also, I wish you’d stop peddling the “Korean Armistice” shite.
As I’ve regularly pointed out, it’s not even vaguely comparable.
It is rather weird.
Dr. Foxy -- and almost every mother -- will admire her personal story.
(For the record: I am not a wealthy man, but will be sending her a small contribution.)
On the theme, wall paintings at St Mary's Dymock.
This is even more silly than your Alan Partridge style bromance.
2004, -2.4
2000, +0.5
2016, +2.1
2012, +3.9
2020, +4.5
1992, +5.6
2008, +7.2
1996, +8.5
I think Trump does quite well out of that comparison. I'm not saying that Trump is uber-popular, but he was popular enough to win in 2016, even if he did lose the popular vote. The point of the popular vote defeats for Republicans is that they are generally unpopular, regardless of who the candidate is - but Trump has clearly done better than the average Republican in that period.
Jenrick really is a hateful weasel. Go Kemi!
(Perot was also strongly protectionist - and a nutter - and makes an interesting proto-Trump.)
No Jonathan Gullis?
Sorely tempted, but must stay disciplined.
Start losing the war, and their calendars freed up. Though it was notable that the leadership of one of the largest armies in human history couldn't get hold of enough explosives to do a good job.
Bit like Speer and his stepladder (lack of).
Wasn’t it the navy?
"The 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California's Butte County was the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California's history. The fire began on the morning of Thursday, November 8, 2018, when part of a poorly maintained Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) transmission line in the Feather River Canyon failed during strong katabatic winds. Those winds rapidly drove the Camp Fire through the communities of Concow, Magalia, Butte Creek Canyon, and Paradise, largely destroying them. The fire burned for another two weeks, and was contained on Sunday, November 25, after burning 153,336 acres (62,050 ha). The Camp Fire caused 85 fatalities, displaced more than 50,000 people, and destroyed more than 18,000 structures, causing an estimated $16.5 billion in damage. It was the most expensive natural disaster (by insured losses) of 2018."
Most of the loss of life could have been prevented had California Governor Newsom (D) acted. rationally. (In the very last hours, for example, he could have sent in helicopters to evacuate residents of Paradise.)
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/wes-streeting-fiance-joe-dancey-job-labour-32skkpkfz (£££)
Lloyd George knew my father. Father knew Lloyd George.
I was very insulated until I went to a state sixth form and I am glad I did as it certainly got me out of my bubble.
In terms of private schools generally, I would have much preferred to make state schools so good, private schools no longer needed to exist.
Farage, Anderson and Tice are already elected, that's it for public recognition.
A catastrophic change
Concur with JM that there's much to admire about Jaime Herrera Beutler. Speaking as someone who worked to beat her when she ran for re-election to Congress . . . TWICE, in 2018 and 2020.
However, IF I'd been a voter in her district in 2022 would most definitely have voted for her . . . after she had the courage and integrity to vote to impeach Donald Trump in January 2021. That she lost in the 2022 primary was a bummer . . . but at least the MAGA-maggot who beat her in August, lost the actual election in November.
I'm torn in 2024, would like to vote for her . . . but NOT for WA Commissioner of Public Lands, given her environmental voting record in US House. When the Seattle Times endorsed her for lands commissioner, they noted these votes but said they were willing to overlook them. Me, not so much.
No doubt that JHB has best chance of any GOP on the statewide ballot to actually get elected in 2024. One big factor in her favor, is that there are plenty of otherwide regular Democratic voters in WA who would like to vote for at least ONE candidate of the Republican party on their ballot. This year, JHB is the obvious choice
Nuclear and Open Skies treaties abandoned?
Correction - ADH should of course be SADH.
Let’s catch our breath here for a minute. Realize the Russians were cheating. They were misusing the treaty against the US - as senior military and civilian leaders warned. Withdrawing denies Putin a collection tool - this is not a win for him.
Speaking of Tommy Douglas (as we so often do)
per wiki -
The Saskatchewan Party is a conservative political party in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The party was founded in 1997 by a coalition of former provincial Progressive Conservative and Liberal Party members who sought to unite opposition to the governing New Democratic Party. Since 2007, the Saskatchewan Party has been the province's governing party, and both the party and the province are currently led by Premier Scott Moe.
Since first being elected to a majority government in 2007, the Saskatchewan Party has enjoyed a run of electoral success not seen in the province since the days of Tommy Douglas's Co-operative Commonwealth Federation [precursor of NDP]. In 2020, the SP was elected to its fourth consecutive majority government, a feat not achieved since the CCF led five majority governments between 1944 and 1964. This success has led observers to declare the SP the province's new natural governing party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saskatchewan_Party
The Dem data for 2020 does look like a huge outlier.
https://x.com/sfalmy/status/1848852103432990851
As previously mentioned, AZ statewide turnout is down (-4.2%). Largely in part to fewer lower Dem TO (-8.3%). Independents are down 4% while GOP voters are even.
Historically, older Republicans have been the main mail in voters.
But in 2020, the Republicans didn't vote by mail because Trump told them not to. This year, he's telling people to vote by mail. And Dems, presumably, are less likely to be locked up in their homes.
So, I'd be wary about drawing anything too conclusive.
https://x.com/alexthomp/status/1848846678138183726