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State of the Union, Week 8 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited October 22 in General
imageState of the Union, Week 8 – politicalbetting.com

The charts are getting redder.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edited October 22
    First, unlike Harris. And Arsenal.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited October 22
    2nd.
    The ranking of ReformUK for number of Council seats when compared to the Ashfield Independents.

    It's an off-topic, stock up for winter day. Pleasant and sunny, my hybrid insulin pump with it's feedback loop arrived earlier, and now the 2kg of kippers and venison hamper turned up from the Lancaster Smokehouse.

    Need to reorganise the freezer since about 15kg of berries are due on Thursday.

    Have a good afternoon, all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foss said:

    The Mail are reporting that Blake now has a price on his head.

    Why on earth was his identity revealed in the first place? Epic fail.
    The police and the CPS are either terrified of being called racist or, more worryingly, actively sympathetic to the agenda of BLM.
    I don't believe Blake should have been charged and named. Kaba was clearly a bad guy and the World is a safer place without him. I'd have shot the f***** if I was armed and with a two tonne Audi pointed at me. However, the confidence of the usual PB suspects that the trial was a conspiracy by BLM/Khan/ Starmer/CPS/ ECHR/ EU and the BBC is a bit of a stretch.
    The trial established that (a) this was lawful self defence (b) Kaba was a scumbag.

    Sergeant Blake performed a public service, when he shot him.
    Did I say otherwise? I don't believe Blake should have seen the inside of a courtroom. I am calling out the PB conspiracy theories as to why Blake was charged. For clarification. He shouldn't have been.
    These conspiracy theories exist only in your mind
    Maybe. But have you recently revisited some of your racially charged conspiracies?
    WTF are you on about now?
    I have just checked your flags, you could revisit those for a start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited October 22
    On those numbers there is a chance Trump will win the popular vote but Harris the EC if she holds Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and NE02 she will win even if she loses Arizona, Nevada and Georgia from the Biden 2020 states.

    The Senate is almost certainly going GOP again regardless, although likely only narrowly
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foss said:

    The Mail are reporting that Blake now has a price on his head.

    Why on earth was his identity revealed in the first place? Epic fail.
    The police and the CPS are either terrified of being called racist or, more worryingly, actively sympathetic to the agenda of BLM.
    I don't believe Blake should have been charged and named. Kaba was clearly a bad guy and the World is a safer place without him. I'd have shot the f***** if I was armed and with a two tonne Audi pointed at me. However, the confidence of the usual PB suspects that the trial was a conspiracy by BLM/Khan/ Starmer/CPS/ ECHR/ EU and the BBC is a bit of a stretch.
    The trial established that (a) this was lawful self defence (b) Kaba was a scumbag.

    Sergeant Blake performed a public service, when he shot him.
    Did I say otherwise? I don't believe Blake should have seen the inside of a courtroom. I am calling out the PB conspiracy theories as to why Blake was charged. For clarification. He shouldn't have been.
    These conspiracy theories exist only in your mind
    Maybe. But have you recently revisited some of your racially charged conspiracies?
    WTF are you on about now?
    I have just checked your flags, you could revisit those for a start.
    How many stripes in their flag?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited October 22
    Random question: did anyone ride the Sydney Monorail that existed between 1988 and 2013?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0R_1tVCONsg
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
  • Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foss said:

    The Mail are reporting that Blake now has a price on his head.

    Why on earth was his identity revealed in the first place? Epic fail.
    The police and the CPS are either terrified of being called racist or, more worryingly, actively sympathetic to the agenda of BLM.
    I don't believe Blake should have been charged and named. Kaba was clearly a bad guy and the World is a safer place without him. I'd have shot the f***** if I was armed and with a two tonne Audi pointed at me. However, the confidence of the usual PB suspects that the trial was a conspiracy by BLM/Khan/ Starmer/CPS/ ECHR/ EU and the BBC is a bit of a stretch.
    The trial established that (a) this was lawful self defence (b) Kaba was a scumbag.

    Sergeant Blake performed a public service, when he shot him.
    Did I say otherwise? I don't believe Blake should have seen the inside of a courtroom. I am calling out the PB conspiracy theories as to why Blake was charged. For clarification. He shouldn't have been.
    These conspiracy theories exist only in your mind
    Maybe. But have you recently revisited some of your racially charged conspiracies?
    WTF are you on about now?
    I have just checked your flags, you could revisit those for a start.
    40% of them for saying that Lammy is a dick for saying he can, as a black man, identify with slaves, when he was supposed to be talking about Ukraine

    One for laughing that virgin Sunil doesn't know what his penis is for

    All the rest for criticising Hamas numbers and Hamas supporters

    I'll give myself a fucking good talking to

    Once you explain how these are "racially charged conspiracies"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Barbie to his Ken, maybe...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    News - Eminem will appear at a Harris rally in Detroit - TMZ
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1848719645496291394
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    HYUFD said:

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
    Speaking of good trans-Atlantic relationships, the dog who has recently kept schtum in the night time is Nigel Farage, former self-appointed aide de camp to The Donald.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    HYUFD said:

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
    As far as Boris and Trump are concerned it's birds of a feather flocking together.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    former self-appointed aide de camp to The Donald.

    If Trump wins he will be at the victory party.

    If Trump loses he might even go to Clacton
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    They are still trying to make me like Ajax. They have told me about all the variants. But TBH they still look like various flavours of shit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naUib-ncvMU
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    HYUFD said:

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
    As far as Boris and Trump are concerned it's birds of a feather flocking together.
    They really don't strike me as particularly similar, apart from being 'on the right' and having slightly mad hair. They seem to strike me as being victims of a line of thinking which goes "I don't like x. I don't like y. Therefore x=y."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    "Runnymede Trust
    @RunnymedeTrust
    ·
    21h
    The legal system doesn’t deliver real justice for families bereaved by racist state violence.

    Since 1990 there have been 1,904 deaths in or following police custody or contact. In that time, only one officer has been found guilty for manslaughter, and none for murder.



    This lack of police accountability perpetuates cycles of violence and impunity.

    Our thoughts and solidarity are with Chris' loved ones and wider community.

    Chris Kaba, 23.07.1999 - 05.09.2022
    #JusticeForChrisKaba"

    https://x.com/RunnymedeTrust/status/1848404667484569992
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Runnymede Trust
    @RunnymedeTrust
    ·
    21h
    The legal system doesn’t deliver real justice for families bereaved by racist state violence.

    Since 1990 there have been 1,904 deaths in or following police custody or contact. In that time, only one officer has been found guilty for manslaughter, and none for murder.



    This lack of police accountability perpetuates cycles of violence and impunity.

    Our thoughts and solidarity are with Chris' loved ones and wider community.

    Chris Kaba, 23.07.1999 - 05.09.2022
    #JusticeForChrisKaba"

    https://x.com/RunnymedeTrust/status/1848404667484569992

    They really do have low expectations of acceptable behaviour by some.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
    As far as Boris and Trump are concerned it's birds of a feather flocking together.
    They really don't strike me as particularly similar, apart from being 'on the right' and having slightly mad hair. They seem to strike me as being victims of a line of thinking which goes "I don't like x. I don't like y. Therefore x=y."
    Inveterate liars. Prepared to twist the system for their own advantage.

    I grant you Boris didn't try to call up a bunch of thugs when he was likely to be thrown out of Parliament, though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited October 22
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
    As far as Boris and Trump are concerned it's birds of a feather flocking together.
    They really don't strike me as particularly similar, apart from being 'on the right' and having slightly mad hair. They seem to strike me as being victims of a line of thinking which goes "I don't like x. I don't like y. Therefore x=y."
    Similarities:
    Distant relationship with the truth
    They don't think the law applies to them personally
    Prepared to break constitutional norms
    Eccentric but effective speechmaking
    Hair!

    Differences
    Trump is vindictive, Boris isn't (I don't think)
    Trump doesn't support Ukraine, Boris does
    What else?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    edited October 22
    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
    As far as Boris and Trump are concerned it's birds of a feather flocking together.
    They really don't strike me as particularly similar, apart from being 'on the right' and having slightly mad hair. They seem to strike me as being victims of a line of thinking which goes "I don't like x. I don't like y. Therefore x=y."
    There are similarities. Both are liars and narcissists in politics for themselves only. But to say they are as bad as each other would be to defame "Boris" most grievously. He has some redeeming features, Donald Trump has none. Trump also has many negatives (a snide bullying cruelty, pig ignorance, an absence of intellect) that Johnson does not share.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    A 49 day year?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Boris had a good relationship with Trump as PM and has also endorsed him to be President again.

    Starmer of course has already met Trump for lunch at Trump Tower in preparation for a possible Trump win and Blair managed to have a good relationship with George W Bush
    Blair's relationship with W is not something to be celebrated.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
  • North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    Here is an article from the WSJ on early voting trends. Usual caveats apply, as @TSE has said, namely you cannot tell the final results from what is happening in early voting

    https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/early-voting-democrats-republicans-election-2024-f0abda67?st=Jodjvs&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    But when it comes to NC specifically, it is worth noting the comments of Michael Bitzer - who is as close as there is to a guru on NC politics - and his view on where things stand right now:

    "“Looking at who is showing up, I would say Republicans should feel good and Democrats may have some work to do,”
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Scott_xP said:

    former self-appointed aide de camp to The Donald.

    If Trump wins he will be at the victory party.

    If Trump loses he might even go to Clacton
    Is "go to Clacton" new-speak for what your grandfathers meant when they said someone was "sent to Coventry"?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Are we convinced that the voters of Richmond and Northallerton would be any more accommodating to a carpet-bagging Liz Truss than those of South West Norfolk?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Indeed, William. And who would doubt such an eventuality? After all, there is only one TRUSS, and all sides of the House will be pining for the return of their favourite daughter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Scott_xP said:

    former self-appointed aide de camp to The Donald.

    If Trump wins he will be at the victory party.

    If Trump loses he might even go to Clacton
    Is "go to Clacton" new-speak for what your grandfathers meant when they said someone was "sent to Coventry"?
    Hertford Street shopping centre Coventry is akin to Disneyland compared to Jaywick.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Andy_JS said:

    Random question: did anyone ride the Sydney Monorail that existed between 1988 and 2013?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0R_1tVCONsg

    I lived there in 88/89 but I don't actually remember that. I do remember commuting to work by boat though. Amazing. Also driving across the Harbour Bridge was a thrill. You'd throw a coin into a bucket to access it and you could do that without stopping the car if you were skilful enough (which I was).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#North_Carolina
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Are we convinced that the voters of Richmond and Northallerton would be any more accommodating to a carpet-bagging Liz Truss than those of South West Norfolk?
    Who do you think would win the seat over Truss in a by-election?
  • Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    I think NC is very close and the undercard for Governor is making it even closer with Robinson so embarrassing for the GOP that even Trump is distancing himself. Stein seems to be double digits ahead and he just might drag out some low propensity voters on his coat tails.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 654
    I hate admitting it even to myself but during this campaign I've suddenly begun to see why people like Donald Trump. There's something slightly endearing about his naff dancing and burger flipping. As I've said before there's something pleasingly retro about his music taste and personal enthusiasms. Don't get me wrong he's the worst person to be President and those around him are abhorrent and his political views are diametrically opposed to mine but I think he seems to have mellowed personally this time round
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    So... Musk's agenda:

    He said: "So true" to this:

    "The real "risk" of a Trump presidency:

    • Ukraine war ends
    • Border Wall Built
    • Mass Deportations
    • Inflation Drops
    • Cut Federal Employees
    • DEI eliminated
    • Make America Great Again

    Sign me up."

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1848353354121974029

    Some of those are meaningless; some are pretty much out of his hands; some of the others are chilling.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Are we convinced that the voters of Richmond and Northallerton would be any more accommodating to a carpet-bagging Liz Truss than those of South West Norfolk?
    Who do you think would win the seat over Truss in a by-election?
    I suspect the voters would rally around Labour as the Stop Truss candidate. Of course, attitudes might have soothed towards her by the time such an eventuality arose. But then again they might not. And why would the Tories take the risk of putting her up? What possible advantage would that have?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Are we convinced that the voters of Richmond and Northallerton would be any more accommodating to a carpet-bagging Liz Truss than those of South West Norfolk?
    Who do you think would win the seat over Truss in a by-election?
    Mordaunt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    CatMan said:

    If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"

    He told us so himself!!!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    Has Jenrick promised more marching bands in British politics? He has shifted position on everything else (which btw some say is a good thing as it shows a willingness to do whatever it takes).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Are we convinced that the voters of Richmond and Northallerton would be any more accommodating to a carpet-bagging Liz Truss than those of South West Norfolk?
    Who do you think would win the seat over Truss in a by-election?
    Mordaunt.
    Does Richmond and Northallerton need "food pantries"?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    PBers think that the USA is profoundly, tragically, dangerously polarized between Woke Libtards and MAGA-Maniacs? When as we Americans well know, the REAL national divide is over the pros and cons of . . . candy corn!

    AP - Love it or hate it, feelings run high over candy corn come Halloween

    Cruel joke for trick-or-treaters or coveted seasonal delight? The great Halloween debate over candy corn is on.

    In the pantheon of high-emotion candy, the classic shiny tricolor kernels in autumn’s white, orange and yellow are way up there. Fans and foes alike point to the same attributes: its plastic or candle-like texture (depending on who you ask) and the mega-sugar hit it packs.

    “I am vehemently pro candy corn. It’s sugar! What is not to love? It’s amazing. It’s like this waxy texture. You get to eat it once a year. It’s tricolor. That’s always fun,” comedian Shannon Fiedler gushed on TikTok. “Also, I know it’s disgusting. Candy corn is objectively kind of gross, but that’s what makes it good.” . . .

    Love it or loathe it, market leader Brach’s churns out roughly 30 million pounds of candy corn for the fall season each year, or enough to circle planet Earth about five times, the company says. Last year, that amounted to $75 million of $88.5 million in candy corn sales, according to the consumer research firm Circana. . . .

    https://apnews.com/article/candy-corn-halloween-trickortreat-384c51299fe00945c0e92b29cc3ff86a

    SSI - youse UKers may be asking, WTF is "candy corn"? See pix in AP report!

    For the PB record, yours truly is life-long, hard-core (or corn?) proponent AND consumer of candy corn.

    NOT that I actually eat the stuff these days, though might just have to nibble a wee bit before The Great Pumpkin makes its next appearence, just for old times sake.

    Gobble, gobble!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Well that will calm things down...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    PBers think that the USA is profoundly, tragically, dangerously polarized between Woke Libtards and MAGA-Maniacs? When as we Americans well know, the REAL national divide is over the pros and cons of . . . candy corn!

    AP - Love it or hate it, feelings run high over candy corn come Halloween

    Cruel joke for trick-or-treaters or coveted seasonal delight? The great Halloween debate over candy corn is on.

    In the pantheon of high-emotion candy, the classic shiny tricolor kernels in autumn’s white, orange and yellow are way up there. Fans and foes alike point to the same attributes: its plastic or candle-like texture (depending on who you ask) and the mega-sugar hit it packs.

    “I am vehemently pro candy corn. It’s sugar! What is not to love? It’s amazing. It’s like this waxy texture. You get to eat it once a year. It’s tricolor. That’s always fun,” comedian Shannon Fiedler gushed on TikTok. “Also, I know it’s disgusting. Candy corn is objectively kind of gross, but that’s what makes it good.” . . .

    Love it or loathe it, market leader Brach’s churns out roughly 30 million pounds of candy corn for the fall season each year, or enough to circle planet Earth about five times, the company says. Last year, that amounted to $75 million of $88.5 million in candy corn sales, according to the consumer research firm Circana. . . .

    https://apnews.com/article/candy-corn-halloween-trickortreat-384c51299fe00945c0e92b29cc3ff86a

    SSI - youse UKers may be asking, WTF is "candy corn"? See pix in AP report!

    For the PB record, yours truly is life-long, hard-core (or corn?) proponent AND consumer of candy corn.

    NOT that I actually eat the stuff these days, though might just have to nibble a wee bit before The Great Pumpkin makes its next appearence, just for old times sake.

    Gobble, gobble!

    Yet more evidence that those who think they understand the US from this side of the pond are deluding themselves.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    DavidL said:

    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    I think NC is very close and the undercard for Governor is making it even closer with Robinson so embarrassing for the GOP that even Trump is distancing himself. Stein seems to be double digits ahead and he just might drag out some low propensity voters on his coat tails.
    Doubtful that a gubernatorial candidate and/or race, will have coattails in a presidential election.

    More likely to impact already-likely voters, thus affecting POTUS race via (what we hacks term) Persuasion versus GOTV.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar.bsky.social‬

    Speaker Johnson says deporting 4.5 million people will be his top priority in January. Is this what voters want? We're pretty cooked as a country if so.

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.bsky.social/post/3l74676wofu2t
  • Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    Given how quickly the jury acquitted him, and frankly, how overwhelming the evidence was, I'm surprised that the CPS were able to conclude there was a better than 50% chance of obtaining a conviction.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    I think it's much more likely that they're pursuing him out of bitterness of failing to get the jury to convict him, it's clear they have a vendetta against him because they need to show that they believe in BLM and all that other nonsense which was behind the CPS charging decision.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    Given how quickly the jury acquitted him, and frankly, how overwhelming the evidence was, I'm surprised that the CPS were able to conclude there was a better than 50% chance of obtaining a conviction.
    If there's every an honest investigation we'll find that there was pressure from somewhere to press charges because they needed to be seen as supporting BLM not that there was ever a chance of getting a conviction. It's absolutely rotten but this is the world we've made for ourselves now, publicly dragging a clearly innocent man's reputation through the mud so that some idiots can feel better about themselves.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    I think it's much more likely that they're pursuing him out of bitterness of failing to get the jury to convict him, it's clear they have a vendetta against him because they need to show that they believe in BLM and all that other nonsense which was behind the CPS charging decision.
    I was pulled up a couple of hours ago for suggesting there are PB conspiracy theories on the lines of the conspiracy theory you have just outlined.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    I think it's much more likely that they're pursuing him out of bitterness of failing to get the jury to convict him, it's clear they have a vendetta against him because they need to show that they believe in BLM and all that other nonsense which was behind the CPS charging decision.
    He is transparently guilty of making life slightly difficult for the Senior Management Team.

    His grotesquely offensive behaviour, in being acquired, risks their not getting another award for Community Relations. Said abstract piece of plexiglass is vital to their continued emotional wellbeing.
  • Afternoon.all.

    Putin looks very confident at that meeting with Xi and Modi. Not much liking the look of it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    Is that based on anything other than your “feels”?

    Because that and €10 will buy you a coffee in Zurich.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    I'm not so confident, but ramping tight polling makes sense to get slightly less enthusiastic voters out to bury Trump.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    Is that based on anything other than your “feels”?

    Because that and €10 will buy you a coffee in Zurich.
    Maybe a bottle of afternoon wine?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Afternoon.all.

    Putin looks very confident at that meeting with Xi and Modi. Not much liking the look of it.

    It's supposed to be a BRICS summit but people only talk about Xi and Modi. They should drop the BS.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    The polls have definitely nudged slightly in favour of the GOP, but I am not particularly convinced by them this cycle, to be completely honest with you. Indeed given the number of polling misses on both sides of the pond in the past decade, I am just far from convinced that you can derive any meaningful outcome from it other than “it’s close.” So I’m looking at some of the other fundamentals - I still think the Democrats have an enthusiasm/GOTV operation that will pay dividends on election day - whether it is enough is debatable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Afternoon.all.

    Putin looks very confident at that meeting with Xi and Modi. Not much liking the look of it.

    It's supposed to be a BRICS summit but people only talk about Xi and Modi. They should drop the BS.
    A seat at the table for President Trump at next year's event?

    If his boss whistles, he'll run to heel.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited October 22
    kinabalu said:

    ...Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems...

    It does. Reps are in the lead in Nevada in early voting

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    viewcode said:

    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#North_Carolina
    No aggregate poll has Trump more than 1% ahead - in a state he has to win.

    Show me the NC marching bands going out for Trump.
  • viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems...

    It does. Reps are in the lead in Nevada in early voting

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/16/that-way-madness-lies/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    edited October 22
    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    Harris has had one of her best polling days today for a while. Although one of those is Morning Consult, which I'm given to understand is the Poo Standard of US polling.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 22

    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    Is that based on anything other than your “feels”?

    Because that and €10 will buy you a coffee in Zurich.
    I prefer "big picture intuition". I've learnt to go with it, don't expect anyone else to. Not calling it though. Only a fool would call it on 22nd Oct with the polls this close. I'm just telling people where I am.
  • viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems...

    It does. Reps are in the lead in Nevada in early voting

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/16/that-way-madness-lies/
    Correct but from Jon Ralston, who is the guru on NV elections (from last night)

    "The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.

    It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems...

    It does. Reps are in the lead in Nevada in early voting

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
    Based on what @rcs1000, there isn't much campaigning happening there. Isn't it supposed to be one of Harris's key seven target states?
  • MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    I think it's much more likely that they're pursuing him out of bitterness of failing to get the jury to convict him, it's clear they have a vendetta against him because they need to show that they believe in BLM and all that other nonsense which was behind the CPS charging decision.
    I was pulled up a couple of hours ago for suggesting there are PB conspiracy theories on the lines of the conspiracy theory you have just outlined.
    Tbf this is straying into the territory you were describing

    But until the CPS provides a convincing explanation why they chose to prosecute such a clear cut case, and whoever made the decision to name the officer does the same, there's bound to be speculation over these actions

    Do you think it's impossible that there was woke-signalling from the CPS?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    viewcode said:

    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#North_Carolina
    No aggregate poll has Trump more than 1% ahead - in a state he has to win.

    Show me the NC marching bands going out for Trump.
    i) Trump overperforms his polls
    ii) In Nevada the rurals are overperforming for Trump and the cities are underperforming for Harris.

    If we assume this urban/rural split is nationwide, she's dead.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Stereodog said:

    I hate admitting it even to myself but during this campaign I've suddenly begun to see why people like Donald Trump. There's something slightly endearing about his naff dancing and burger flipping. As I've said before there's something pleasingly retro about his music taste and personal enthusiasms. Don't get me wrong he's the worst person to be President and those around him are abhorrent and his political views are diametrically opposed to mine but I think he seems to have mellowed personally this time round

    He's a weapons-grade bell-end.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    I'm not so confident, but ramping tight polling makes sense to get slightly less enthusiastic voters out to bury Trump.
    Mrs America has to turn out and I think she will.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    ....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    I think it's much more likely that they're pursuing him out of bitterness of failing to get the jury to convict him, it's clear they have a vendetta against him because they need to show that they believe in BLM and all that other nonsense which was behind the CPS charging decision.
    He is transparently guilty of making life slightly difficult for the Senior Management Team.

    His grotesquely offensive behaviour, in being acquired, risks their not getting another award for Community Relations. Said abstract piece of plexiglass is vital to their continued emotional wellbeing.
    Sadly it does appear that the higher-ups, all the way up to the Mayor, are happy to throw one officer under the bus, for a split-second decision for which a jury exonerated him, in a quest for ‘community relations’ among the gangs of London.

    The very real threat of a thousand armed officers of the Met handing in their guns en masse, is going to be very much still there.

    This particular officer, retire him immediately on a full pension and get him into witness protection before the aforementioned gangs find him. Dare I suggest that the Met are currently spending as much on his personal security as they would on a government minister or a minor royal?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited October 22
    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    Good to have you back on board! I must admit I’ve been spooked by some whose views I respect inclining to call it for Trump. But still my view remains turnout will be higher than pollsters have been predicting, and undecideds will swing towards Harris, so it will finally be good night, Donald.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    Lol, another privately-educated multi-millionaire moaning about the 'Establishment'.

    Give me a break.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    edited October 22

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    I think it's much more likely that they're pursuing him out of bitterness of failing to get the jury to convict him, it's clear they have a vendetta against him because they need to show that they believe in BLM and all that other nonsense which was behind the CPS charging decision.
    I was pulled up a couple of hours ago for suggesting there are PB conspiracy theories on the lines of the conspiracy theory you have just outlined.
    Tbf this is straying into the territory you were describing

    But until the CPS provides a convincing explanation why they chose to prosecute such a clear cut case, and whoever made the decision to name the officer does the same, there's bound to be speculation over these actions

    Do you think it's impossible that there was woke-signalling from the CPS?
    Especially when the DPP has gone on record to say he's a big supporter of BLM. It's not exactly suggesting the moon landing was a hoax.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    North Carolina a worry for Harris you say? Well, look at these going off to vote early - with a marching band! Then tell me who is worried...

    (Of course, if Harris is anywhere near North Carolina, the only person worried is Trump.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvhgJb17PA - at 6m51sec

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#North_Carolina
    No aggregate poll has Trump more than 1% ahead - in a state he has to win.

    Show me the NC marching bands going out for Trump.
    i) Trump overperforms his polls
    ii) In Nevada the rurals are overperforming for Trump and the cities are underperforming for Harris.

    If we assume this urban/rural split is nationwide, she's dead.
    God help us all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems...

    It does. Reps are in the lead in Nevada in early voting

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
    Early voting in Nevada does look bad for Harris, but you can never tell if Republicans are simply switching over to advance voting, instead of leaving it till the day.
  • Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Are we convinced that the voters of Richmond and Northallerton would be any more accommodating to a carpet-bagging Liz Truss than those of South West Norfolk?
    Who do you think would win the seat over Truss in a by-election?
    I suspect the voters would rally around Labour as the Stop Truss candidate. Of course, attitudes might have soothed towards her by the time such an eventuality arose. But then again they might not. And why would the Tories take the risk of putting her up? What possible advantage would that have?
    I know the constituency well. They wouldn't vote Labour under any circumstances, could vote Lib Dem but with such a strident candidate they would definitely vote Reform. An Independent of that ilk long before Reform was ever thought of held one of the most iconic county council seats with 3/4 of the vote not that long ago.

    If Rishi were to stand down then that would be seen as the ultimate kick in the teeth for those who selected him and voted for him. If he were to do so then he would go down in my perception quite a long way. I don't think he will, his party members expect him to stay as well.

    There used to be four seats which are very similar, natural Tory - Richmondshire, Skipton and Ripon, Penrith and the Border and Westmorland and Lonsdale. All four have been lost / nearly lost at various times because of national Conservative Party folly starting with Skipton in 1944.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    That's a load of bullshit tbh, the jury were given this information and it wouldn't have been released to the public until after any trial took place to ensure that a fair jury could be selected with no prejudice.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems...

    It does. Reps are in the lead in Nevada in early voting

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
    Early voting in Nevada does look bad for Harris, but you can never tell if Republicans are simply switching over to advance voting, instead of leaving it till the day.
    Yes, there’s been a large GOP effort put into advance voting in swing States, in a way that wasn’t the case in 2020.

    We’ll not know until the day, but Nevada was a Biden State and the demographic changes of the past four years should be in Harris’ favour.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    kinabalu said:

    I'm pleased to report a fresh burst of confidence chez moi about the election. I know about the tightening polls, the market move to Trump, his growing edge in EC projections, all of Elon Musk's monkey business, Ralston saying the early data in Nevada looks bad for the Dems, etc etc - but you know that thing about the "silent majority", whereby there's sometimes an undercurrent of sentiment amongst a critical mass of people which comes through and prevails in the end when it comes to the actual voting? I think that sentiment is present this time and it's "No, not going there again." If I'm right Trump loses and I think I am right. So, yep, feeling good.

    The polls have definitely nudged slightly in favour of the GOP, but I am not particularly convinced by them this cycle, to be completely honest with you. Indeed given the number of polling misses on both sides of the pond in the past decade, I am just far from convinced that you can derive any meaningful outcome from it other than “it’s close.” So I’m looking at some of the other fundamentals - I still think the Democrats have an enthusiasm/GOTV operation that will pay dividends on election day - whether it is enough is debatable.
    Yes, the polls are not that helpful. If they're right (which they usually aren't) it's very close and if they're again underplaying Trump he's home and hosed. But I'd be surprised if they are out in the same direction for a 3rd time in a row. More likely imo is they have overcorrected and miss the other way this time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    That's a load of bullshit tbh, the jury were given this information and it wouldn't have been released to the public until after any trial took place to ensure that a fair jury could be selected with no prejudice.
    No, I think it was withheld, and rightly so. They didn't know who was in the car. But, they knew the car's history, which is why armed police were deployed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    CatMan said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Well that will calm things down...
    We heard testimony that others in the fire-arms squad were on the point of discharging their weapons. How does that tally with Gross Misconduct?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    a
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    That's a load of bullshit tbh, the jury were given this information and it wouldn't have been released to the public until after any trial took place to ensure that a fair jury could be selected with no prejudice.
    Note that the request by the family of Kaba to continue the reporting restrictions on his involvement in the shooting at the nightclub *after this trial was over* was denied.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    That's a load of bullshit tbh, the jury were given this information and it wouldn't have been released to the public until after any trial took place to ensure that a fair jury could be selected with no prejudice.
    Were the Jury told this? When? Certainly not the specifics of the murder he was accused of in the night club?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 22
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    That's a load of bullshit tbh, the jury were given this information and it wouldn't have been released to the public until after any trial took place to ensure that a fair jury could be selected with no prejudice.
    The jury were *NOT* given the information about the dead man’s past, in order that the officer could receive a fair trial.

    Tice’s argument is the same as we see from the Tommy Robinson fan club.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Officer who shot Chris Kaba likely to face gross misconduct charges

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/chris-kaba-shooting-martyn-blake-police-officer-hfkvsxjqk

    Given that Sergeant Blake was very clearly innocent, it's unclear what form of gross misconduct he could be guilty of.

    The Met could be facing a huge unfair dismissal/victimisation claim.
    Like with Chris Kaba, some prejudicial information may not have been released.

    I remember that one copper was in a similar situation but was sacked for lying to the investigators/something came up in his vetting that had been previously been missed.
    I think it's much more likely that they're pursuing him out of bitterness of failing to get the jury to convict him, it's clear they have a vendetta against him because they need to show that they believe in BLM and all that other nonsense which was behind the CPS charging decision.
    I was pulled up a couple of hours ago for suggesting there are PB conspiracy theories on the lines of the conspiracy theory you have just outlined.
    Tbf this is straying into the territory you were describing

    But until the CPS provides a convincing explanation why they chose to prosecute such a clear cut case, and whoever made the decision to name the officer does the same, there's bound to be speculation over these actions

    Do you think it's impossible that there was woke-signalling from the CPS?
    I don't agree with the CPS decision but no.
  • a

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    That's a load of bullshit tbh, the jury were given this information and it wouldn't have been released to the public until after any trial took place to ensure that a fair jury could be selected with no prejudice.
    Note that the request by the family of Kaba to continue the reporting restrictions on his involvement in the shooting at the nightclub *after this trial was over* was denied.
    "involvement" is an interesting word for the shooter
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited October 22

    Well. At least we can be reassured that our politicians are well prepared for the foreseeable chaos of a second Trump Presidency.

    Oh.

    In another timeline, Liz Truss would still be in Downing Street, ready to play Thatcher to his Reagan.
    Maybe she still will, William. After all, many have opined that TRUSS is ready to return. To shine again in her rightful place on top of the tree. Like a Christmas angel for every day of the year.

    Interesting.
    As the party's choice, it would only be fitting if she were to stage a triumphant return in Rishi Sunak's old seat.
    Are we convinced that the voters of Richmond and Northallerton would be any more accommodating to a carpet-bagging Liz Truss than those of South West Norfolk?
    Who do you think would win the seat over Truss in a by-election?
    Mordaunt.
    Does Richmond and Northallerton need "food pantries"?
    If they do need them, they can have Lee Anderson to organise the catering teams; he's good at that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧
    @TiceRichard
    This is truly shocking
    The Establishment knew of Kaba’s violent criminal past but chose to withhold it from the people.
    Police officer’s life ruined, many other officers terrified that not being supported, and trust in policing harmed.
    Shameful"

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1848702272546521573

    That's a load of bullshit tbh, the jury were given this information and it wouldn't have been released to the public until after any trial took place to ensure that a fair jury could be selected with no prejudice.
    No, I think it was withheld, and rightly so. They didn't know who was in the car. But, they knew the car's history, which is why armed police were deployed.
    My mistake, even without that the jury was able to come to the correct decision. Being faced with a car that's linked to a gang shooting attempting to escape a police block by ramming down officers is a life threatening situation.
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