If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
That's the amazing thing about Putin's madness. Even if he was to 'win' and gain all of Ukraine overnight, then Russia is probably weaker than it would have been without the war since 2014. They will have gained a devastated territory whose population is against them, and lost a heck of a lot of blood and treasure in this pointless war. More so, if the sanctions remain.
During WW2 France was more of a drain on Germany's resources than it was a benefit. Despite rationing, there was no 'hunger plan' in France.
The days of imperialist expansionist wars are thankfully in the past; at least they will be, if Russia loses. Which is a good reason to try to ensure that Russia 'loses'.
They will be the future, if Russia is allowed to win.
Precisely my view.
Take China and Taiwan. XI and his predecessors have built up China's military to a high point, with rapid expansion. The problem with doing this is that, in twenty or thirty years, or sooner, many of those resources will require renewing. Ships and planes do not last forever. Neither do tanks, at least without climate-controlled warehousing or rebuilding after long-term storage.
The Chinese military is also chomping at the bit: it has been marched up to the top of the hill, and is acting as though it wants a fight. Witness its behaviour in the seas around the Philippines and in the air in international airspace. Many in the military will want a fight.
Worse, China's growth appears to be slowing, and it faced significant economic problems (though we all do...), just as their population starts shrinking. They may not be able to as easily afford a war of conquest in a couple of decades.
Perhaps the only thing staying Xi's hand is seeing what has happened to Russia since 2022. Is his military as unbeatable as they make out?
But I do hope that Taiwan is just a metaphorical weapon for Xi. It's good to have a goal to get elements of the population energised, without actually going for it. A bit like the Falklands for Argentina. And hopefully Xi will note what happened there as well, when Galtieri did go for it.
Taiwan is a tough ask for many reasons: it is much better equipped than Ukraine, and it has the advantage of an ocean between China and the Taiwanese main island. On the other hand, one would expect China to be a much more serious adversary, with infinitely more resources.
The biggest thing in Taiwan's favour though, is that it is hard to build a landing force in secret. We'd likely have a lot of warning, because invasion requires landing hundreds of thousands of troops simultaneously, and that means a lot of ships.
A blockade requires only the ships - and China has the world’s largest navy.
While you’re right Taiwan wouldn’t give in easily, a full blockade would be existential for them.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6. Apocalypse is overstating but it will be a very bad result for America and for the things most people on this forum profess to cherish (without much sincerity in some cases I think)
Real concern, in my case.
I truly wish that people would drop the wishful thinking that Harris’ GOTV operation, or never-Trump Republicans, are going to gift her the election, or that the tightening in the polls is all pro-Republican junk polling.
It’s now down to the Triarii, as the Romans put it.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
Appears to have been a very good polling day for Harris - 538 has reverted to 50:50 win percentage having been 53% Trump a couple of days ago.
Yet Betfair has moved further towards Tump today.
It’s been okay nationally but state polls have looked mediocre. There’s really been a lack of higher quality polling in this election compared to previous years and there’s been far too many GOP biased polls trying to flood the averages .
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
The PB Trump Arse-Lickers are hard to live with, granted. It’s theoretically easier to simply ignore them but they are shrill and unrelenting.
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
That's the amazing thing about Putin's madness. Even if he was to 'win' and gain all of Ukraine overnight, then Russia is probably weaker than it would have been without the war since 2014. They will have gained a devastated territory whose population is against them, and lost a heck of a lot of blood and treasure in this pointless war. More so, if the sanctions remain.
During WW2 France was more of a drain on Germany's resources than it was a benefit. Despite rationing, there was no 'hunger plan' in France.
The days of imperialist expansionist wars are thankfully in the past; at least they will be, if Russia loses. Which is a good reason to try to ensure that Russia 'loses'.
They will be the future, if Russia is allowed to win.
Precisely my view.
Take China and Taiwan. XI and his predecessors have built up China's military to a high point, with rapid expansion. The problem with doing this is that, in twenty or thirty years, or sooner, many of those resources will require renewing. Ships and planes do not last forever. Neither do tanks, at least without climate-controlled warehousing or rebuilding after long-term storage.
The Chinese military is also chomping at the bit: it has been marched up to the top of the hill, and is acting as though it wants a fight. Witness its behaviour in the seas around the Philippines and in the air in international airspace. Many in the military will want a fight.
Worse, China's growth appears to be slowing, and it faced significant economic problems (though we all do...), just as their population starts shrinking. They may not be able to as easily afford a war of conquest in a couple of decades.
Perhaps the only thing staying Xi's hand is seeing what has happened to Russia since 2022. Is his military as unbeatable as they make out?
But I do hope that Taiwan is just a metaphorical weapon for Xi. It's good to have a goal to get elements of the population energised, without actually going for it. A bit like the Falklands for Argentina. And hopefully Xi will note what happened there as well, when Galtieri did go for it.
Taiwan is a tough ask for many reasons: it is much better equipped than Ukraine, and it has the advantage of an ocean between China and the Taiwanese main island. On the other hand, one would expect China to be a much more serious adversary, with infinitely more resources.
The biggest thing in Taiwan's favour though, is that it is hard to build a landing force in secret. We'd likely have a lot of warning, because invasion requires landing hundreds of thousands of troops simultaneously, and that means a lot of ships.
A blockade requires only the ships - and China has the world’s largest navy.
While you’re right Taiwan wouldn’t give in easily, a full blockade would be existential for them.
How do the Chinese stop sea drones that can be mass produced?
And how many of the things Trump promised in his 2016 victory speech were done ?
How many politicians get to do everything they want to? None.
Trump talks about extensive tariffs, mass deportations, stopping aid to Ukraine and using the apparatus of state against his enemies. I am utterly convinced he will try to do every one of those things, but in all probability won't be able to do them all.
Of the things you mention, some require major lawmaking and significant enforcement infrastructure. Stopping aid to Ukraine is different though, as it requires inaction rather than action to stop it.
As Trump showed when his Congressional poodles stopped significant aid to Ukraine for half a year.
Ukraine would now be in a far better position had that not happened. Something Sandpit has unfortunately overlooked.
Appears to have been a very good polling day for Harris - 538 has reverted to 50:50 win percentage having been 53% Trump a couple of days ago.
Yet Betfair has moved further towards Tump today.
It’s been okay nationally but state polls have looked mediocre. There’s really been a lack of higher quality polling in this election compared to previous years and there’s been far too many GOP biased polls trying to flood the averages .
Has there been any notable state polling today?
3 national polls were okay Ipsos Harris ahead by 3 , Morning Consult by 4 and UMass by YouGov by 2 , the TIPP was a tie after Trump being ahead yesterday and the R and W was the only bad poll at this time with Trump ahead by 2 .
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
Ukraine would fight on if Trump cuts US Aid, but less effectively and with heavier casualties. They have no choice but fight or surrender, and surrender means millions of Ukranians heading our way as refugees again.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6 But heavily qualified. No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
Europe incurred an economic penalty through the higher costs and extra government borrowing that happened after the Russian gas was turned off.
You can add the political turmoil that has resulted as well from higher inflation.
How was that price any different to that incurred by - say - us? Or Pakistan?
Everyone saw their energy import costs spike, irrespective of whether they bought Russian gas or not.
Let me give you an example, the price of coal went up 12x. So, if you were Malaysia, and your electricity generation was close to 100% coal, then your price of energy went up by the same as the Germans or the Brits.
The same inflation and political turmoil has been seen everywhere if you are an energy importer, because the price of all energy rose.
There was no special negative economic impact in Europe, energy prices rose the same amount there as everywhere else in the world. Because energy is fungible.
Not entirely. Russia supplied gas and oil at below market prices to countries with fewer scruples.
Of course there were practical limits on how much, but there was, and still is a two tier market.
That's true: India and China have benefited from cheap oil in the aftermath. But gas is a little different, because it's much harder to ship around.
The power of one gas pipeline is open and running between Russia and China and will increase its capacity next year.
Not by much, compared to what they have lost. Even when Power of SIberia 2 comes online in many years (Mongolia is not interested until at least 2028). And AIUI the price of the gas in that deal is suboptimal from Russia's point of view.
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
Appears to have been a very good polling day for Harris - 538 has reverted to 50:50 win percentage having been 53% Trump a couple of days ago.
Yet Betfair has moved further towards Tump today.
It’s been okay nationally but state polls have looked mediocre. There’s really been a lack of higher quality polling in this election compared to previous years and there’s been far too many GOP biased polls trying to flood the averages .
Has there been any notable state polling today?
3 national polls were okay Ipsos Harris ahead by 3 , Morning Consult by 4 and UMass by YouGov by 2 , the TIPP was a tie after Trump being ahead yesterday and the R and W was the only bad poll at this time with Trump ahead by 2 .
It is far from clear that we are comparing like with like but Clinton won by a wider margin than Harris is currently ahead and yet still lost the EC. The assumption was that a draw on the vote gives Trump the win. Not sure I have seen a compelling reason to change that but if anyone has got one I would be happy to hear it.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6 But heavily qualified. No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
However Trump isn't particularly well and will probably be sidelined in short order to be replaced by Vance who may not have the same unwillingness to go to war.
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
That's the amazing thing about Putin's madness. Even if he was to 'win' and gain all of Ukraine overnight, then Russia is probably weaker than it would have been without the war since 2014. They will have gained a devastated territory whose population is against them, and lost a heck of a lot of blood and treasure in this pointless war. More so, if the sanctions remain.
During WW2 France was more of a drain on Germany's resources than it was a benefit. Despite rationing, there was no 'hunger plan' in France.
The days of imperialist expansionist wars are thankfully in the past; at least they will be, if Russia loses. Which is a good reason to try to ensure that Russia 'loses'.
They will be the future, if Russia is allowed to win.
Precisely my view.
Take China and Taiwan. XI and his predecessors have built up China's military to a high point, with rapid expansion. The problem with doing this is that, in twenty or thirty years, or sooner, many of those resources will require renewing. Ships and planes do not last forever. Neither do tanks, at least without climate-controlled warehousing or rebuilding after long-term storage.
The Chinese military is also chomping at the bit: it has been marched up to the top of the hill, and is acting as though it wants a fight. Witness its behaviour in the seas around the Philippines and in the air in international airspace. Many in the military will want a fight.
Worse, China's growth appears to be slowing, and it faced significant economic problems (though we all do...), just as their population starts shrinking. They may not be able to as easily afford a war of conquest in a couple of decades.
Perhaps the only thing staying Xi's hand is seeing what has happened to Russia since 2022. Is his military as unbeatable as they make out?
But I do hope that Taiwan is just a metaphorical weapon for Xi. It's good to have a goal to get elements of the population energised, without actually going for it. A bit like the Falklands for Argentina. And hopefully Xi will note what happened there as well, when Galtieri did go for it.
Taiwan is a tough ask for many reasons: it is much better equipped than Ukraine, and it has the advantage of an ocean between China and the Taiwanese main island. On the other hand, one would expect China to be a much more serious adversary, with infinitely more resources.
The biggest thing in Taiwan's favour though, is that it is hard to build a landing force in secret. We'd likely have a lot of warning, because invasion requires landing hundreds of thousands of troops simultaneously, and that means a lot of ships.
As someone else pointed out, 'all' China needs to do is a naval blockade of Taiwan. Which would screw much of our economy, and would probably lead to a much wider war.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
Europe incurred an economic penalty through the higher costs and extra government borrowing that happened after the Russian gas was turned off.
You can add the political turmoil that has resulted as well from higher inflation.
How was that price any different to that incurred by - say - us? Or Pakistan?
Everyone saw their energy import costs spike, irrespective of whether they bought Russian gas or not.
Let me give you an example, the price of coal went up 12x. So, if you were Malaysia, and your electricity generation was close to 100% coal, then your price of energy went up by the same as the Germans or the Brits.
The same inflation and political turmoil has been seen everywhere if you are an energy importer, because the price of all energy rose.
There was no special negative economic impact in Europe, energy prices rose the same amount there as everywhere else in the world. Because energy is fungible.
Not entirely. Russia supplied gas and oil at below market prices to countries with fewer scruples.
Of course there were practical limits on how much, but there was, and still is a two tier market.
That's true: India and China have benefited from cheap oil in the aftermath. But gas is a little different, because it's much harder to ship around.
The power of one gas pipeline is open and running between Russia and China and will increase its capacity next year.
Not by much, compared to what they have lost. Even when Power of SIberia 2 comes online in many years (Mongolia is not interested until at least 2028). And AIUI the price of the gas in that deal is suboptimal from Russia's point of view.
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
And no ships are transporting it out of the Siberian ports officially or unofficially?
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6 But heavily qualified. No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
However Trump isn't particularly well and will probably be sidelined in short order to be replaced by Vance who may not have the same unwillingness to go to war.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
I'm having clams tonight. With loads of garlic and butter. And white wine, chilli flakes, lemon juice and zest, and parsley and chives, mixed into linguine
Mouth-watering. Which is way better than eye-watering.
Incidentially, whereas UKer are inclined to say that some large number is eye-watering, us USers will say that it's eye-popping.
Seem bigness tends to make you guys slightly ill, whereas it impresses Americans whether they like it or not.
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
Europe incurred an economic penalty through the higher costs and extra government borrowing that happened after the Russian gas was turned off.
You can add the political turmoil that has resulted as well from higher inflation.
How was that price any different to that incurred by - say - us? Or Pakistan?
Everyone saw their energy import costs spike, irrespective of whether they bought Russian gas or not.
Let me give you an example, the price of coal went up 12x. So, if you were Malaysia, and your electricity generation was close to 100% coal, then your price of energy went up by the same as the Germans or the Brits.
The same inflation and political turmoil has been seen everywhere if you are an energy importer, because the price of all energy rose.
There was no special negative economic impact in Europe, energy prices rose the same amount there as everywhere else in the world. Because energy is fungible.
Not entirely. Russia supplied gas and oil at below market prices to countries with fewer scruples.
Of course there were practical limits on how much, but there was, and still is a two tier market.
That's true: India and China have benefited from cheap oil in the aftermath. But gas is a little different, because it's much harder to ship around.
The power of one gas pipeline is open and running between Russia and China and will increase its capacity next year.
Not by much, compared to what they have lost. Even when Power of SIberia 2 comes online in many years (Mongolia is not interested until at least 2028). And AIUI the price of the gas in that deal is suboptimal from Russia's point of view.
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
And no ships are transporting it out of the Siberian ports officially or unofficially?
I don't know how many LNG ships Russia has access to, either wholly owned or in a shadow fleet - I know they were limited in the LNG capacity of the ports they could use. @rcs1000 probably knows more.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
Between 5 and 6
If the democrats end up controlling the house that will go some way towards mitigating.
I will be gravely concerned for the global economy and inflation as he will probably try to carry out his crazy trade tariffs.
Trump is a danger to the global economy in a way the inept Harris isn’t. She’s a terrible candidate but better than the Trumpdozer.
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
Europe incurred an economic penalty through the higher costs and extra government borrowing that happened after the Russian gas was turned off.
You can add the political turmoil that has resulted as well from higher inflation.
How was that price any different to that incurred by - say - us? Or Pakistan?
Everyone saw their energy import costs spike, irrespective of whether they bought Russian gas or not.
Let me give you an example, the price of coal went up 12x. So, if you were Malaysia, and your electricity generation was close to 100% coal, then your price of energy went up by the same as the Germans or the Brits.
The same inflation and political turmoil has been seen everywhere if you are an energy importer, because the price of all energy rose.
There was no special negative economic impact in Europe, energy prices rose the same amount there as everywhere else in the world. Because energy is fungible.
Not entirely. Russia supplied gas and oil at below market prices to countries with fewer scruples.
Of course there were practical limits on how much, but there was, and still is a two tier market.
That's true: India and China have benefited from cheap oil in the aftermath. But gas is a little different, because it's much harder to ship around.
The power of one gas pipeline is open and running between Russia and China and will increase its capacity next year.
Not by much, compared to what they have lost. Even when Power of SIberia 2 comes online in many years (Mongolia is not interested until at least 2028). And AIUI the price of the gas in that deal is suboptimal from Russia's point of view.
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
And no ships are transporting it out of the Siberian ports officially or unofficially?
I don't know how many LNG ships Russia has access to, either wholly owned or in a shadow fleet - I know they were limited in the LNG capacity of the ports they could use. @rcs1000 probably knows more.
I see. Thanks for that and the commodity boys like Vitol and the others. I wonder if they are moving any around. Just a thought! They buy and sell commodities as we know.
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
Europe incurred an economic penalty through the higher costs and extra government borrowing that happened after the Russian gas was turned off.
You can add the political turmoil that has resulted as well from higher inflation.
How was that price any different to that incurred by - say - us? Or Pakistan?
Everyone saw their energy import costs spike, irrespective of whether they bought Russian gas or not.
Let me give you an example, the price of coal went up 12x. So, if you were Malaysia, and your electricity generation was close to 100% coal, then your price of energy went up by the same as the Germans or the Brits.
The same inflation and political turmoil has been seen everywhere if you are an energy importer, because the price of all energy rose.
There was no special negative economic impact in Europe, energy prices rose the same amount there as everywhere else in the world. Because energy is fungible.
Not entirely. Russia supplied gas and oil at below market prices to countries with fewer scruples.
Of course there were practical limits on how much, but there was, and still is a two tier market.
That's true: India and China have benefited from cheap oil in the aftermath. But gas is a little different, because it's much harder to ship around.
The power of one gas pipeline is open and running between Russia and China and will increase its capacity next year.
Not by much, compared to what they have lost. Even when Power of SIberia 2 comes online in many years (Mongolia is not interested until at least 2028). And AIUI the price of the gas in that deal is suboptimal from Russia's point of view.
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
And no ships are transporting it out of the Siberian ports officially or unofficially?
I don't know how many LNG ships Russia has access to, either wholly owned or in a shadow fleet - I know they were limited in the LNG capacity of the ports they could use. @rcs1000 probably knows more.
I see. Thanks for that and the commodity boys like Vitol and the others. I wonder if they are moving any around. Just a thought! They buy and sell commodities as we know.
As you said they are limited in LNG capacity at the ports. I take that into account.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6 But heavily qualified. No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
However Trump isn't particularly well and will probably be sidelined in short order to be replaced by Vance who may not have the same unwillingness to go to war.
In this - or that - context, somewhat ironic that Dick Cheney's daughter Liz Cheney is actively campaigning for - and with - Kamala Harris.
Frankly one reason methinks why Cheney the Younger is NOT an unmixed blessing for Harris, seeing as how good portion of support for Trump is based on DJT isolationist, no-more-forever-wars rhetoric.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
Six is closest but not quite right because it wouldn't be a shock (he's fav) and it's not fear of the apocalypse I'd mainly feel but disgust. Real disgust.
Appears to have been a very good polling day for Harris - 538 has reverted to 50:50 win percentage having been 53% Trump a couple of days ago.
Yet Betfair has moved further towards Tump today.
It’s been okay nationally but state polls have looked mediocre. There’s really been a lack of higher quality polling in this election compared to previous years and there’s been far too many GOP biased polls trying to flood the averages .
Has there been any notable state polling today?
3 national polls were okay Ipsos Harris ahead by 3 , Morning Consult by 4 and UMass by YouGov by 2 , the TIPP was a tie after Trump being ahead yesterday and the R and W was the only bad poll at this time with Trump ahead by 2 .
It is far from clear that we are comparing like with like but Clinton won by a wider margin than Harris is currently ahead and yet still lost the EC. The assumption was that a draw on the vote gives Trump the win. Not sure I have seen a compelling reason to change that but if anyone has got one I would be happy to hear it.
Kerry as I said earlier did better in the swing states than the popular vote.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
At least you & Starms are on the same page with Israel & the most moral army in the world. Hands across the divide and all that. Heartwarming really.
I don't much care who wins the US election in the big picture of things. But I do resent that if Trump wins the media here will just return to full-on 'klaxon! trump says mad thing! klaxon! trump says something a bit weird! klaxon! trump had a walk!... klaxon! ....' 24x7.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6 But heavily qualified. No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
However Trump isn't particularly well and will probably be sidelined in short order to be replaced by Vance who may not have the same unwillingness to go to war.
In this - or that - context, somewhat ironic that Dick Cheney's daughter Liz Cheney is actively campaigning for - and with - Kamala Harris.
Frankly one reason methinks why Cheney the Younger is NOT an unmixed blessing for Harris, seeing as how good portion of support for Trump is based on DJT isolationist, no-more-forever-wars rhetoric.
Quite.
A lot of these people are against Trump because he doesn't like war very much. One of the few times he received warm coverage from the media when he was President was when he started lobbing missiles at Assad. Everything was forgiven when they thought he might be going neocon.
We've seen 1.845m ballots returned already (26% turnout), either via absentee or in person early voting.
There's no data on party affiliation, but from a demographics perspective it's a mixed bag, with probably a slight tilt towards the Dems.
Women outnumber men 55-to-45 (good for Dems)
The Atlanta counties are returning at higher rates than rural (good for Dems, but probably also reflects the fact that queues at polling stations in cities on the day will be longer)
But older voters outnumbner younger ones (which is normal, but still positive for Republicans)
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
Ukraine would fight on if Trump cuts US Aid, but less effectively and with heavier casualties. They have no choice but fight or surrender, and surrender means millions of Ukranians heading our way as refugees again.
If Trump wins again I would expect Taiwan and Ukraine to have developed nuclear weapons within 6 months, with Iran also trying to get nukes fully developed soon after
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
6 But heavily qualified. No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
However Trump isn't particularly well and will probably be sidelined in short order to be replaced by Vance who may not have the same unwillingness to go to war.
In this - or that - context, somewhat ironic that Dick Cheney's daughter Liz Cheney is actively campaigning for - and with - Kamala Harris.
Frankly one reason methinks why Cheney the Younger is NOT an unmixed blessing for Harris, seeing as how good portion of support for Trump is based on DJT isolationist, no-more-forever-wars rhetoric.
Quite.
A lot of these people are against Trump because he doesn't like war very much. One of the few times he received warm coverage from the media when he was President was when he started lobbing missiles at Assad. Everything was forgiven when they thought he might be going neocon.
Yes, comrade.
We are against Trump for that reason alone. Not because he is a criminal, a woman-abuser, a fraudster and a nasty racist who wants to remove loads of rights from people, including women. Oh, and wants to deport millions of people. No, those are all *perfectly* fine. (/sarcasm, obvs.)
@MikeSington The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
Europe incurred an economic penalty through the higher costs and extra government borrowing that happened after the Russian gas was turned off.
You can add the political turmoil that has resulted as well from higher inflation.
How was that price any different to that incurred by - say - us? Or Pakistan?
Everyone saw their energy import costs spike, irrespective of whether they bought Russian gas or not.
Let me give you an example, the price of coal went up 12x. So, if you were Malaysia, and your electricity generation was close to 100% coal, then your price of energy went up by the same as the Germans or the Brits.
The same inflation and political turmoil has been seen everywhere if you are an energy importer, because the price of all energy rose.
There was no special negative economic impact in Europe, energy prices rose the same amount there as everywhere else in the world. Because energy is fungible.
Not entirely. Russia supplied gas and oil at below market prices to countries with fewer scruples.
Of course there were practical limits on how much, but there was, and still is a two tier market.
That's true: India and China have benefited from cheap oil in the aftermath. But gas is a little different, because it's much harder to ship around.
The power of one gas pipeline is open and running between Russia and China and will increase its capacity next year.
Not by much, compared to what they have lost. Even when Power of SIberia 2 comes online in many years (Mongolia is not interested until at least 2028). And AIUI the price of the gas in that deal is suboptimal from Russia's point of view.
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
And no ships are transporting it out of the Siberian ports officially or unofficially?
I don't know how many LNG ships Russia has access to, either wholly owned or in a shadow fleet - I know they were limited in the LNG capacity of the ports they could use. @rcs1000 probably knows more.
We've seen 1.845m ballots returned already (26% turnout), either via absentee or in person early voting.
There's no data on party affiliation, but from a demographics perspective it's a mixed bag, with probably a slight tilt towards the Dems.
Women outnumber men 55-to-45 (good for Dems)
The Atlanta counties are returning at higher rates than rural (good for Dems, but probably also reflects the fact that queues at polling stations in cities on the day will be longer)
But older voters outnumbner younger ones (which is normal, but still positive for Republicans)
The age difference in the US is not as big as the gender and race difference, so if those older voters are black women in large part that also helps Harris.
if Harris won Georgia she only needs Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or Michigan to win the EC overall
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
So assuming you took in the original point about Ukraine, you will be blaming the Dems if Trump sharts all over the Ukes? Good to know.
What's the death toll of Ukes under Biden versus under Trump so far?
Biden failed to deter Putin and failed to give Ukraine adequate means to defend himself. People need to stop using Trump as a scapegoat.
This would be a lot more compelling argument if (a) Trump hadn't repeatedly praised the Russian attack, and recently criticized them for resisting, and (b) if his allies in the House of Representatives hadn't repeatedly opposed aid to Ukraine.
I agree that Ukraine was invaded because Putin thought the US would do nothing. And he thought the US would do nothing, because of the nature of withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But ultimately, Trump and his proxies have repeatedly backed Russia over Ukraine. So you'll forgive me if I think that a Trump victory would be anything other than a disaster for Ukraine.
Also: "how many dead" is a fucked up measure. It suggests that if the UK had been invaded by the Nazis in WW2, but only 150,000 people died in the invasion, then that would have been a better outcome than us - you know - fighting off the invasion.
Trump also told Europe to increase defence spending and stop relying on Russian energy.
While Biden was VP to Obama who did nothing in response to Russian aggression and who sneered when Romney spoke about the danger from Russia.
The leadership of the USA has been various levels of mediocre to bad for a long time.
That's not going to change, its just a question of how mediocre and how bad according to your personal preferences.
Europe did both of those things.
Albeit they only did the second after the invasion of Ukraine.
So they didn't do the second.
And bar a few countries in eastern Europe they've didn't do the first either and still haven't in some cases.
Dude:
They proved they weren't reliant on Russian energy. Russian gas was turned off, and the lights and power stayed on across Europe.
Indeed, we - who essentially didn't buy any Russian gas - were more affected than most European countries, because it turns out that energy is fungible.
The Europeans incurred no economic penalty from having imported Russian gas. Indeed, the people who lost out were the Russians, because they had no alternative markets for the gas.
Europe incurred an economic penalty through the higher costs and extra government borrowing that happened after the Russian gas was turned off.
You can add the political turmoil that has resulted as well from higher inflation.
How was that price any different to that incurred by - say - us? Or Pakistan?
Everyone saw their energy import costs spike, irrespective of whether they bought Russian gas or not.
Let me give you an example, the price of coal went up 12x. So, if you were Malaysia, and your electricity generation was close to 100% coal, then your price of energy went up by the same as the Germans or the Brits.
The same inflation and political turmoil has been seen everywhere if you are an energy importer, because the price of all energy rose.
There was no special negative economic impact in Europe, energy prices rose the same amount there as everywhere else in the world. Because energy is fungible.
Not entirely. Russia supplied gas and oil at below market prices to countries with fewer scruples.
Of course there were practical limits on how much, but there was, and still is a two tier market.
That's true: India and China have benefited from cheap oil in the aftermath. But gas is a little different, because it's much harder to ship around.
The power of one gas pipeline is open and running between Russia and China and will increase its capacity next year.
Not by much, compared to what they have lost. Even when Power of SIberia 2 comes online in many years (Mongolia is not interested until at least 2028). And AIUI the price of the gas in that deal is suboptimal from Russia's point of view.
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
And no ships are transporting it out of the Siberian ports officially or unofficially?
I don't know how many LNG ships Russia has access to, either wholly owned or in a shadow fleet - I know they were limited in the LNG capacity of the ports they could use. @rcs1000 probably knows more.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
Appears to have been a very good polling day for Harris - 538 has reverted to 50:50 win percentage having been 53% Trump a couple of days ago.
Yet Betfair has moved further towards Tump today.
It’s been okay nationally but state polls have looked mediocre. There’s really been a lack of higher quality polling in this election compared to previous years and there’s been far too many GOP biased polls trying to flood the averages .
Has there been any notable state polling today?
3 national polls were okay Ipsos Harris ahead by 3 , Morning Consult by 4 and UMass by YouGov by 2 , the TIPP was a tie after Trump being ahead yesterday and the R and W was the only bad poll at this time with Trump ahead by 2 .
It is far from clear that we are comparing like with like but Clinton won by a wider margin than Harris is currently ahead and yet still lost the EC. The assumption was that a draw on the vote gives Trump the win. Not sure I have seen a compelling reason to change that but if anyone has got one I would be happy to hear it.
Kerry as I said earlier did better in the swing states than the popular vote.
We've seen 1.845m ballots returned already (26% turnout), either via absentee or in person early voting.
There's no data on party affiliation, but from a demographics perspective it's a mixed bag, with probably a slight tilt towards the Dems.
Women outnumber men 55-to-45 (good for Dems)
The Atlanta counties are returning at higher rates than rural (good for Dems, but probably also reflects the fact that queues at polling stations in cities on the day will be longer)
But older voters outnumbner younger ones (which is normal, but still positive for Republicans)
The age difference in the US is not as big as the gender and race difference, so if those older voters are black women in large part that also helps Harris.
if Harris won Georgia she only needs Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or Michigan to win the EC overall
A message to all the pearl clutchers. Most of the polls are within margin of error. A Georgian or Arizonan subsample is no more valid than a Scottish or Welsh subsample. None of you know who is going to win.
NEW: "The Trump-Vance Campaign has filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint against the Harris-Walz Campaign and the Labour Party of the United Kingdom for illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections."
There has been comment on Rep pollsters as compared to neutral pollsters. (I don't bother with Brit pollsters as they have almost as dreadful a record calling US elections as they do UK ones). So a look at 2022 the first election when a rash of Rep pollsters popped up.
Arizona - Neutrals understated Dems lead by 3, Rep pollsters by 4 Georgia - Neutrals got it right, Reps understated Dem lead by 4.5 Nevada - Neutrals got it right, Reps understated Dem lead by 5 North Carolina - Neutrals got it right, Reps overstated Rep lead by 3 Pennsylvania - Neutrals understated Dem lead by 3, Rep pollsters by 7 Wisconsin - Neutrals overstated Rep lead by 2, Rep pollsters by 4
So neutrals did well but averages were hauled out of line by the Rep pollsters. Lets look at the differences between neutral and Rep pollsters this time
There gaps will probably increase in the next two weeks closer to 2022 levels. At the moment they are not huge but in a very close election they are enough to flip all 3 Rust Belt states and Nevada.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
@MikeSington The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
Elon Musk, his car company Tesla and Warner Brothers Discovery are being sued for allegedly using artificial intelligence-generated imagery from Blade Runner 2049 at the launch of Tesla’s robotaxi.
A lawsuit filed by Alcon Entertainment, the producers of the 2017 science fiction sequel, claimed that the billionaire, 53, and other defendants had requested permission to use an “iconic still image” from the movie at an event to promote Tesla’s much-delayed self-driving Cybercab in Burbank, California, on October 10.
Alcon alleges that after it refused permission and “adamantly objected” to any affiliation with a Musk-owned company, Tesla created an AI-generated image based on the film in its promotional material anyway.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
At least you & Starms are on the same page with Israel & the most moral army in the world. Hands across the divide and all that. Heartwarming really.
When I look across and see you, Galloway, Corbyn, the IRA..
NEW: "The Trump-Vance Campaign has filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint against the Harris-Walz Campaign and the Labour Party of the United Kingdom for illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections."
The Labour party subsidising their expenses could put them on dodgy ground legally.
NEW: "The Trump-Vance Campaign has filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint against the Harris-Walz Campaign and the Labour Party of the United Kingdom for illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections."
Don't worry, we have an incredibly skilled and famously clever Foreign Secretary who will smooth things over.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Even if we had the collective will, we have now missed the opportunity through supply chain lead times to actually step in. Politicians refuse to see defence as the insurance policy it is, and have been in denial on the risk of Trump.
Edit: It’s 1935 but we haven’t backed the Spitfire and nobody has invested in radar.
@MikeSington The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
NEW: "The Trump-Vance Campaign has filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint against the Harris-Walz Campaign and the Labour Party of the United Kingdom for illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections."
The Labour party subsidising their expenses could put them on dodgy ground legally.
@MikeSington The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
We've seen 1.845m ballots returned already (26% turnout), either via absentee or in person early voting.
There's no data on party affiliation, but from a demographics perspective it's a mixed bag, with probably a slight tilt towards the Dems.
Women outnumber men 55-to-45 (good for Dems)
The Atlanta counties are returning at higher rates than rural (good for Dems, but probably also reflects the fact that queues at polling stations in cities on the day will be longer)
But older voters outnumbner younger ones (which is normal, but still positive for Republicans)
The age difference in the US is not as big as the gender and race difference, so if those older voters are black women in large part that also helps Harris.
if Harris won Georgia she only needs Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or Michigan to win the EC overall
A message to all the pearl clutchers. Most of the polls are within margin of error. A Georgian or Arizonan subsample is no more valid than a Scottish or Welsh subsample. None of you know who is going to win.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
Appears to have been a very good polling day for Harris - 538 has reverted to 50:50 win percentage having been 53% Trump a couple of days ago.
Yet Betfair has moved further towards Tump today.
It’s been okay nationally but state polls have looked mediocre. There’s really been a lack of higher quality polling in this election compared to previous years and there’s been far too many GOP biased polls trying to flood the averages .
Has there been any notable state polling today?
3 national polls were okay Ipsos Harris ahead by 3 , Morning Consult by 4 and UMass by YouGov by 2 , the TIPP was a tie after Trump being ahead yesterday and the R and W was the only bad poll at this time with Trump ahead by 2 .
Lol, good polls are those which say what I want in platonic ideal form.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
@MikeSington The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
That’s Trump fucked, then. Hostile fake reviews of McDonald’s on Yelp. He’s finished
Whilst the whole thing was obviously a gimmick I think it was a good one, some of the anti-Trump news sources I follow have been just a tad more strained in criticising it than they are on many other issues.
@MikeSington The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
That’s Trump fucked, then. Hostile fake reviews of McDonald’s on Yelp. He’s finished
Whilst the whole thing was obviously a gimmick I think it was a good one, some of the anti-Trump news sources I follow have been just a tad more strained in criticising it than they are on many other issues.
If Trump does win at least we'll all get to feel really smug when he abandons Ukraine to Russia and say "We told you so"
Oh, I think I can imagine the exculpations.
It’s the Dems’ fault for choosing a loser and Putin invaded while Biden was in charge leaving Trump to clean up the mess (cough, Afghanistan) and the Dems didn’t work with the Reps thus FORCING the latter to block aid for Ukraine. Etc.
Well, yes, obviously if Trump wins I think it's reasonable to blame the Dems for picking a candidate so weak she came up short against the most awful candidate the GOP have ever put up. Why wouldn't it?
You can lament the Dems not finding a more compelling candidate but what you cannot do is pretend that this is any sort of explanation for America (if they do) re-electing Donald Trump after he has shown in multiple ways and beyond a shred of doubt that he is unfit to be president.
Just a case of fear of candidate A > fear of candidate B. You're entirely reasonable antipathy for Trump is blinding you to the numerous entirely understandable reasons lots of American voters think a Harris presidency will be very bad news for them personally. FWIW, I am 5 verging on 6 on the TimS reaction to Trump scale. Which is why I am so annoyed at the Dem party machine these last 8 years for not giving the country a non-awful alternative. (FWIW2, Joe Biden was not awful per se just 8 years too late.)
How can it be "entirely understandable" to vote for somebody proven as unfit for office? That's the first bar you have to clear and he doesn't. Yet here he is again. It's not really about who his opponent is.
It"s a scandal and a tragedy and that applies even if he loses. That he's on the ballot and will get a big vote is in itself evidence of something going deeply wrong with America and Americans.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
They might stop, regroup, and consider where else to have a nibble; assuming the west will revert to type and take them off the naughty step.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
Possibly prone to believing a losing hand is a winning one though.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
Yes. If Trump really were to stop support for Ukraine then it only emboldens Putin to keep on going.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
“If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it.’
Wait. You are confusing me. Which ones blackmailing the other? I think you have master servant relationship the wrong way round.
And as for “take your winnings but that’s it” from the guy who managed to bankrupt three casino’s 🤷♀️
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
. . . meanwhile out in the Little House on the Prairie, Great White North Edition . . .
CTV News Regina - Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says
The NDP appears to have some momentum in Saskatchewan’s provincial election campaign with less than a week until votes are tallied.
In a new exclusive poll from CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the NDP appears to have pulled ahead slightly among decided voters.
Surveyed between Oct. 18 and 20, 50 per cent of voters say they’ll cast their ballots for the NDP, compared to 45 per cent for the Saskatchewan Party, breaking a near tie shown in previous polling.
“They're still very, very close and they're still within that margin of error,” said Insightrix Research Director Lang McGilp. “But we are seeing a slight shift that's taken place since about a month ago right before the election was called to right now, where we've got 50 per cent of people saying that they would vote for the NDP and 45 for Sask. Party.”
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Even if we had the collective will, we have now missed the opportunity through supply chain lead times to actually step in. Politicians refuse to see defence as the insurance policy it is, and have been in denial on the risk of Trump.
Edit: It’s 1935 but we haven’t backed the Spitfire and nobody has invested in radar.
Yes. I've been banging on about this for some time. Europe had time to prepare for the possibility of Trump returning, and Europe as a whole chose not to.
This won't be a disaster just for the Ukrainians. The consequences will be wide-ranging and severe. It's the end of Pax Americana, and China are not an upgrade.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
In that scenario, the Ukrainians would have the bomb inside of six weeks, and be prepared to use it. That's clearly what last week's low level posturing was about.
So in your scenario, I suspect at the very least a limited scale nuclear exchange if we're lucky. The Threads ending for us all if we're not.
Is there a scenario where the US cuts off military aid to Ukraine, Europe continues providing it and steps up a little (Germany starts sending Taurus for example), and Ukraine kicks out an overconfident Russia without American help?
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
In that scenario, the Ukrainians would have the bomb inside of six weeks, and be prepared to use it. That's clearly what last week's low level posturing was about.
So in your scenario, I suspect at the very least a limited scale nuclear exchange if we're lucky. The Threads ending for us all if we're not.
Yes but no one will notice because the Israelis will be nuking Iran at the same time and in a weird way they will cancel each other out, it might even be funny watching both together like trying to watch Wimbledon AND the cricket so it’s all good
NEW: "The Trump-Vance Campaign has filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint against the Harris-Walz Campaign and the Labour Party of the United Kingdom for illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections."
Don't worry, we have an incredibly skilled and famously clever Foreign Secretary who will smooth things over.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
@MikeSington The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
. . . meanwhile out in the Little House on the Prairie, Great White North Edition . . .
CTV News Regina - Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says
The NDP appears to have some momentum in Saskatchewan’s provincial election campaign with less than a week until votes are tallied.
In a new exclusive poll from CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the NDP appears to have pulled ahead slightly among decided voters.
Surveyed between Oct. 18 and 20, 50 per cent of voters say they’ll cast their ballots for the NDP, compared to 45 per cent for the Saskatchewan Party, breaking a near tie shown in previous polling.
“They're still very, very close and they're still within that margin of error,” said Insightrix Research Director Lang McGilp. “But we are seeing a slight shift that's taken place since about a month ago right before the election was called to right now, where we've got 50 per cent of people saying that they would vote for the NDP and 45 for Sask. Party.”
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
Trump ordered the assassination of Soleimani who was instrumental in Putin’s involvement in Syria.
Is there a scenario where the US cuts off military aid to Ukraine, Europe continues providing it and steps up a little (Germany starts sending Taurus for example), and Ukraine kicks out an overconfident Russia without American help?
No I didn’t think so. Nice idea though.
The very best-case scenario, following a Trump victory and an end for US support to Ukraine, is that US aid keeps flowing, but only because the Europeans buy it from US arms manufacturers. Possibly using the frozen Russian money. Possibly involving the EU issuing war bonds (if they could deal with Hungary and Slovakia being obstructive).
I think Trump would quite like the idea of European money buying US weapons, and I don't think that he's so much a homunculus of Putin that he would block such exports. But I do have doubts about the Europeans coming up with the cash. There's excess capacity for the Ukrainians to produce weapons, if they would be provided with the funding, but that hasn't happened. The way in which Starmer has committed to £3bn per annum funding for Ukraine, for as long as it takes, seems like a very clear indication of "not a penny more" being implied, but left unsaid. The wanker.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
In that scenario, the Ukrainians would have the bomb inside of six weeks, and be prepared to use it. That's clearly what last week's low level posturing was about.
So in your scenario, I suspect at the very least a limited scale nuclear exchange if we're lucky. The Threads ending for us all if we're not.
Yes but no one will notice because the Israelis will be nuking Iran at the same time and in a weird way they will cancel each other out, it might even be funny watching both together like trying to watch Wimbledon AND the cricket so it’s all good
It's a weird old world. Did you see that Google bought a fleet of nuclear reactors to power its AI data centres.
So now the question is who gets the bomb first. The Ukes, the Iranians, or Google.
Why do you only post Trump-favourable polls on PB? Whose mind are you changing? As far as I am aware only Jim and Seashanty have the vote.
It's a good question. What is the purpose of William's Trumpy arse-licking? Nobody really knows.
Similar questions could be asked of your Starmer rimming
Well for starters everyone on here except Jim and Seashanty have a vote in the UK election. Anabob has convinced me.
The astonishing surprise of StarmTrooper solidarity
Are you drinking again?
Again? That implies that I stopped
I only ask because when the Sun falls below the yard arm you typically come on here throwing hay makers, asking weird off-topic questions about Hamas and anti-Zionism, and picking fights with your fellow PBers for no apparent reason.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
I'm anti-islamist. I'm pro-zionist. Even when I'm stone cold sober
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited to the role
I couldn’t care less about the silly moniker, I just think your trying to start online arguments about the Middle East when you are smashed on cider is a bit… weird.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
You have a made-up image of who Trump is in your mind that doesn't match reality. Trump talks tough, but he's actually a big coward who has already talked about surrendering countries in Europe to Russia. He really does not care about Putin marching into Kyiv, because he admires Putin the strongman, and he thinks that talking about that admiration makes some of the strongman vibes rub off on him
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
But the alternative is to accept that Harris is, as they say, Acceptable Under The Circumstances. The Circumstances in this case being that the alternative is bad enough that almost anyone else would be Acceptable.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
Privately educated and Cambridge alumnus talks utter shite.
A privately educated Labour MP has claimed that an exodus of pupils under his party’s tax raid would be good for Britain.
Josh Simons, the MP for Makerfield and former star pupil at £22,350-a-year The Perse School in Cambridge, said the more private school pupils that join state schools, the better it would be for “our schools and for our country”.
The 31-year-old added children should not be “syphoned off into a private school” or “insulated” from the state school system.
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Well, the Ukrainians have been trying to kill Trump, so they’re not exactly passive actors either
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
Why would Russia stop if US aid dries up? They have been humiliated and embarrassed by this war and the multiple failures of their forces. They need to gain face back and Ukraine could collapse when the ammo runs out. Putin is not one to throw in a winning hand.
I reckon Trump would genuinely menace Putin. Trump likes to see himself as a deal broker. The man who gets things done
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
Everything Trump does is governed by whether people think he's a loser or not.
If Trump wins what will be your emotions on the morning of the 6th:
1. Sheer unfettered delight. A new dawn has broken for our American cousins 2. Mild cheer, coupled with intense delight at the tears of the lefties 3. Indifference, it's a foreign country so what does it have to do with me? 4. Mild disappointment tempered by a frisson of schadenfreude re libs tears 5. Oh FFS, I just knew that senile old narcissist would sneak in again (that'll be me) 6. Shock and a deep sense of foreboding that perhaps the apocalypse is nigh 7. Checks winnings or losses on bets and determines degree of cheerfulness on that basis?
Most members here want a Harris win but just imagine the level of anxiety for the Ukrainian people and Zelensky who know a Trump win could signal catastrophic consequences for their country .
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
You're right. For Ukraine this is not just a betting opportunity or a concern that the US might disrupt world trade through tariffs. It is existential for their very existence. I am sure that Zelenskyy has been very aware of this and pointing out this to his European allies but there is very little evidence that Europe is willing to pick up the mantle of funding a major war. Another opportunity will come and go in our budget in just over a week. I am not holding my breath about Reeves getting us onto a war footing.
Even if we had the collective will, we have now missed the opportunity through supply chain lead times to actually step in. Politicians refuse to see defence as the insurance policy it is, and have been in denial on the risk of Trump.
Edit: It’s 1935 but we haven’t backed the Spitfire and nobody has invested in radar.
Yes. I've been banging on about this for some time. Europe had time to prepare for the possibility of Trump returning, and Europe as a whole chose not to.
This won't be a disaster just for the Ukrainians. The consequences will be wide-ranging and severe. It's the end of Pax Americana, and China are not an upgrade.
U.K. Radar development started in 1935 and kicked into high gear in late 1936.
Spitfire design really began in early 1935 (with kudos to Neville Shute Norway for persuading Mitchell that retractable undercarriage was a good idea)
Comments
While you’re right Taiwan wouldn’t give in easily, a full blockade would be existential for them.
I truly wish that people would drop the wishful thinking that Harris’ GOTV operation, or never-Trump Republicans, are going to gift her the election, or that the tightening in the polls is all pro-Republican junk polling.
It’s now down to the Triarii, as the Romans put it.
But, you like cooking, and are clearly a good cook - so you can’t be all bad.
There’s nothing they can do but sit and watch .
As an aside I was nearly moved to tears the other week when I was chatting with a checkout lady at my normal supermarket who is Ukrainian , she was so thankful to Britain for its help and support . I told her we will always support Ukraine for however long it takes .
I’ll be honest I really have to suppress the anger I feel when I see people supporting Trump as it’s a death sentence for Ukraine.
I accept we all have different opinions but I just find I really have to muzzle my anger otherwise I’d likely be banned !
Reckon that re: POTUS answer is generally - Worse.
2nd-term Worse = Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Grant, Cleveland, Wilson, F Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush, Obama
2nd-term Better (maybe) = Monroe, T Roosevelt, Coolidge
Special Cases = Lincoln, McKinley (at best assassination is a mixed bag)
Above judgements highly debateable for specific 2nd-term Presidents, but never (or none?) the less trend-line is pretty clear.
Ukraine would now be in a far better position had that not happened. Something Sandpit has unfortunately overlooked.
No shock - he's been going to win for months. Deep foreboding because this time his back room boys has been planning for the new regime and takeover of the state. This is tempered by the small but possible chance that our enemies will find him even more scary than we do, and the possibilities (but also risks) of his unwillingness to go to war.
A glance at this thread provokes thought.
https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1847705710206857270
Power of Siberia is planned to carry 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is *less* than NordStream 1 alone used to carry.
To be clear on those; I support Israel's right to exist, and I oppose those cultures that want Israel to be destroyed
As for picking fights, I guess you're a bit sore that I singled you out for being chief StarmTrooper
It surprises me that you can seriously support someone so startlingly unsuited
to the role
👍
Incidentially, whereas UKer are inclined to say that some large number is eye-watering, us USers will say that it's eye-popping.
Seem bigness tends to make you guys slightly ill, whereas it impresses Americans whether they like it or not.
If the democrats end up controlling the house that will go some way towards mitigating.
I will be gravely concerned for the global economy and inflation as he will probably try to carry out his crazy trade tariffs.
Trump is a danger to the global economy in a way the inept Harris isn’t. She’s a terrible candidate but better than the Trumpdozer.
Frankly one reason methinks why Cheney the Younger is NOT an unmixed blessing for Harris, seeing as how good portion of support for Trump is based on DJT isolationist, no-more-forever-wars rhetoric.
Fox also had a recent poll with Trump winning the popular vote but Harris the battleground states
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-trump-ahead-harris-2-points-nationally
Hands across the divide and all that.
Heartwarming really.
A lot of these people are against Trump because he doesn't like war very much. One of the few times he received warm coverage from the media when he was President was when he started lobbing missiles at Assad. Everything was forgiven when they thought he might be going neocon.
We've seen 1.845m ballots returned already (26% turnout), either via absentee or in person early voting.
There's no data on party affiliation, but from a demographics perspective it's a mixed bag, with probably a slight tilt towards the Dems.
Women outnumber men 55-to-45 (good for Dems)
The Atlanta counties are returning at higher rates than rural (good for Dems, but probably also reflects the fact that queues at polling stations in cities on the day will be longer)
But older voters outnumbner younger ones (which is normal, but still positive for Republicans)
The next 4 years could be very ugly though
We are against Trump for that reason alone. Not because he is a criminal, a woman-abuser, a fraudster and a nasty racist who wants to remove loads of rights from people, including women. Oh, and wants to deport millions of people. No, those are all *perfectly* fine. (/sarcasm, obvs.)
The McDonald’s Trump “worked” at has been getting so many fake reviews on Yelp, Yelp has stopped new comments from being added. Here are a few:
“Customer service was a joke. Senile old man got bronzer on my fries, didn’t wear gloves. Repeated himself several times, something about Ronald McDonald in the showers at the golf club? IdThe person who was at the drive through vaguely resembled someone who I saw on the news for being a convicted felon.”
“Free lies with every shake. You just don’t want to see who’s shaking. I asked for an Arnold Palmer. Old man told me I couldn’t handle it.”
“The fries were too salty as if someone who lost a major election had been crying over them for an hour.”
https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1848730063325340004
if Harris won Georgia she only needs Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or Michigan to win the EC overall
NEW: "The Trump-Vance Campaign has filed a Federal Election Commission (FEC) complaint against the Harris-Walz Campaign and the Labour Party of the United Kingdom for illegal foreign campaign contributions and interference in our elections."
Arizona - Neutrals understated Dems lead by 3, Rep pollsters by 4
Georgia - Neutrals got it right, Reps understated Dem lead by 4.5
Nevada - Neutrals got it right, Reps understated Dem lead by 5
North Carolina - Neutrals got it right, Reps overstated Rep lead by 3
Pennsylvania - Neutrals understated Dem lead by 3, Rep pollsters by 7
Wisconsin - Neutrals overstated Rep lead by 2, Rep pollsters by 4
So neutrals did well but averages were hauled out of line by the Rep pollsters. Lets look at the differences between neutral and Rep pollsters this time
Arizona 0.3, Georgia 1.3, Michigan 1.8, Nevada 0.9, North Carolina 1.0, Pennsylvania 2.4, Wisconsin 2.1.
There gaps will probably increase in the next two weeks closer to 2022 levels. At the moment they are not huge but in a very close election they are enough to flip all 3 Rust Belt states and Nevada.
A lawsuit filed by Alcon Entertainment, the producers of the 2017 science fiction sequel, claimed that the billionaire, 53, and other defendants had requested permission to use an “iconic still image” from the movie at an event to promote Tesla’s much-delayed self-driving Cybercab in Burbank, California, on October 10.
Alcon alleges that after it refused permission and “adamantly objected” to any affiliation with a Musk-owned company, Tesla created an AI-generated image based on the film in its promotional material anyway.
https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/elon-musk-sued-copying-blade-runner-2049-mkpft0938
I know my place
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-staff-helping-on-kamala-harris-campaign-is-normal-says-minister-13235697
Edit: It’s 1935 but we haven’t backed the Spitfire and nobody has invested in radar.
FWIW I’m not sure Trump WOULD be a disaster for them, inasmuch as the war is ALREADY a terrible bloody disaster for them. Remember I’ve been to Ukraine twice, in this war
If Trump wins my guess is the war would end shortly after. He’d tell Putin to take his winnings but that’s it. He’d tell the Ukrainians “sorry, this ends now, no more aid”
The war would freeze roughly where it is. A Korean armistice. Both sides would regroup and rearm, low level bitching would continue
Is that a vastly worse outcome for Ukraine than what they’ve been given by Biden/Harris? - endless grinding attrition with no end in sight except possible defeat after another few blood-soaked years?
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-he-told-trump-that-either-ukraine-will-join-nato-or-pursue-nuclear-weapons/
https://x.com/ThePoke/status/1848809045949616345
It"s a scandal and a tragedy and that applies even if he loses. That he's on the ballot and will get a big vote is in itself evidence of something going deeply wrong with America and Americans.
Pennsylvania Elections Forecast (10/22)
Presidential - Chance of Winning
🟦 Harris: 51%
🟥 Trump: 49%
[No Change]
Senate - Chance of Winning
🟦 Casey: 77%
🟥 McCormick: 23%
[D+6 since last week]
Presidential - Poll Average (84 polls)
🟦 Harris: 48.4% (+0.2)
🟥 Trump: 48.2%
[No Change]
Senate - Poll Average (99 polls)
🟦 Casey: 48.4% (+3.3)
🟥 McCormick: 45.1%
[No Change]
https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1848816506458546583
And Trump wouldn't care anyway.
Wait. You are confusing me. Which ones blackmailing the other? I think you have master servant relationship the wrong way round.
And as for “take your winnings but that’s it” from the guy who managed to bankrupt three casino’s 🤷♀️
He’d say “you can keep Crimea Donbas whatever and we will rein in Zelensky but go any further and the US will respond with much greater force than you’ve seen”
Trump would not want the terrible optics of Putin marching to Kyiv - that would make Trump look like a LOSER
Of course Putin might ignore Trump but I doubt he would. Trump is unpredictable
CTV News Regina - Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says
The NDP appears to have some momentum in Saskatchewan’s provincial election campaign with less than a week until votes are tallied.
In a new exclusive poll from CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the NDP appears to have pulled ahead slightly among decided voters.
Surveyed between Oct. 18 and 20, 50 per cent of voters say they’ll cast their ballots for the NDP, compared to 45 per cent for the Saskatchewan Party, breaking a near tie shown in previous polling.
“They're still very, very close and they're still within that margin of error,” said Insightrix Research Director Lang McGilp. “But we are seeing a slight shift that's taken place since about a month ago right before the election was called to right now, where we've got 50 per cent of people saying that they would vote for the NDP and 45 for Sask. Party.”
https://regina.ctvnews.ca/saskatchewan-ndp-gaining-momentum-among-decided-voters-new-poll-says-1.7082110
This won't be a disaster just for the Ukrainians. The consequences will be wide-ranging and severe. It's the end of Pax Americana, and China are not an upgrade.
So in your scenario, I suspect at the very least a limited scale nuclear exchange if we're lucky. The Threads ending for us all if we're not.
No I didn’t think so. Nice idea though.
He lost an election and managed to avoid looking like a loser, he can easily manage to blame Zelenskyy for not accepting his deal and cast him as the loser.
You are so self-deluded about Trump.
And it means FUCK ALL.
Maybe he will actually win.
They've bugger all chance anywhere else after all.
Vote for the frozen oblong.
http://middleeastobserver.net/nasrallah-it-was-irans-soleimani-who-convinced-putin-to-enter-syria-war/
I think Trump would quite like the idea of European money buying US weapons, and I don't think that he's so much a homunculus of Putin that he would block such exports. But I do have doubts about the Europeans coming up with the cash. There's excess capacity for the Ukrainians to produce weapons, if they would be provided with the funding, but that hasn't happened. The way in which Starmer has committed to £3bn per annum funding for Ukraine, for as long as it takes, seems like a very clear indication of "not a penny more" being implied, but left unsaid. The wanker.
So now the question is who gets the bomb first. The Ukes, the Iranians, or Google.
Thank God Musk hasn't got the bomb. Yet.
How is it that the Republicans were unable to put forward a candidate who may have been ferociously right-wing, but accepted the importance of democracy, both abroad and at home?
A privately educated Labour MP has claimed that an exodus of pupils under his party’s tax raid would be good for Britain.
Josh Simons, the MP for Makerfield and former star pupil at £22,350-a-year The Perse School in Cambridge, said the more private school pupils that join state schools, the better it would be for “our schools and for our country”.
The 31-year-old added children should not be “syphoned off into a private school” or “insulated” from the state school system.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/private-school-exodus-good-britain-labour-mp/
There won't be a 7 - I'm crud at US politics.
61p Green on Trump, £415 on Kamala to win as it stands
More on the state races and EC
Spitfire design really began in early 1935 (with kudos to Neville Shute Norway for persuading Mitchell that retractable undercarriage was a good idea)