Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
Hmmm.
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
It looks more like the effect they had on the political parties and elections than what they did in government.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
I think there's a much bigger case for putting Powell on there than Benn.
Others in the next category down:
- David Owen - Ken Livingstone - Alex Salmond - Barbara Castle - Bill Cash
John Profumo Airey Neave Dick Taverne
You would say that wouldn't you?
There are some really left field ideas coming in thick and fast.
In some respects it's easier to suggest who definitely shouldn't be on the list. I still like the list @ydoethur compiled earlier. Who doesn't like a bit of Buttskellism?
Without Profumo perhaps the Conservatives win in 1964.
Without Neave perhaps Heath holds off Thatcher in 1975.
Without Taverne perhaps there is no SDP.
The actions of 'little people' can affect the world of politics.
A more recent example would be those final two Labour MPs who allowed Corbyn to become a Labour leader candidate.
I think you are giving too much credibility to butterfly effects. In that case Eric Joyce nutting Stuart Andrew in a Parliamentary bar makes him more relevant than Farage.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
Hmmm.
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
It looks more like the effect they had on the political parties and elections than what they did in government.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
I think there's a much bigger case for putting Powell on there than Benn.
Others in the next category down:
- David Owen - Ken Livingstone - Alex Salmond - Barbara Castle - Bill Cash
John Profumo Airey Neave Dick Taverne
You would say that wouldn't you?
There are some really left field ideas coming in thick and fast.
In some respects it's easier to suggest who definitely shouldn't be on the list. I still like the list @ydoethur compiled earlier. Who doesn't like a bit of Buttskellism?
Without Profumo perhaps the Conservatives win in 1964.
Without Neave perhaps Heath holds off Thatcher in 1975.
Without Taverne perhaps there is no SDP.
The actions of 'little people' can affect the world of politics.
A more recent example would be those final two Labour MPs who allowed Corbyn to become a Labour leader candidate.
Are there two sorts of influential non-PMs, possibly at cross-purposes?
Some are people who do a lot in government (or perhaps opposition) without being in the right place at the right time get the top job. Healy or Butler or Heseltine, say. Kinnock or Ashdown, perhaps.
Others are disruptors. They mostly threw stones, but one or more of those stones hit. Suspect that's where you put Benn, Farage, Powell.
The Serious Fraud Office is investigating the construction of a hotel and conference centre owned by one of the UK’s biggest trade unions, the BBC can reveal.
Unite the Union spent a total of £112m of its members’ money on the project in Birmingham.
The building has since been valued at just £29m, suggesting £83m has been wasted.
A KC-led inquiry commissioned by Unite’s general secretary Sharon Graham also identified a missing £14m which has been described as a “mystery” and does not feature in the project’s final accounts.
Haven't heard that one before but I do remember Walz peddling stories about Vance's sexual activities.
The 'Vance shags his couch' being a variant of 'hillbillies shag their sisters'.
Except Vance himself started that "rumour".
After years of condemning former President Donald Trump for spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories, Democrats are now poking fun at his running mate using a false, vulgar rumor.
The rumor, first posted on X last month, involves a fake passage about a sex act and a couch supposedly in Sen. JD Vance's 2016 book, "Hillbilly Elegy."
The lie spread like wildfire, spawning jokes and memes even as the original joke's author clarified that it wasn't real and later made his account private. Several news outlets published fact-checks of the claim.
The fervor reached a peak in Philadelphia, the day Vice President Kamala Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz told an arena filled with thousands of excited supporters: “I got to tell you, I can’t wait to debate the guy [Vance]. That is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up.”
For the past two weeks, Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has been mocked as someone who has sex with couches — a strange situation even in the no-holds-barred world of presidential politics.
Now the person who created the bizarre meme is coming clean to Business Insider about how he came up with the weird accusation.
Back on July 15, after Vance was announced as Donald Trump’s running mate, a social media user whose handle on X, formerly Twitter, was @rickrudescalves made a bogus post stating that “Hillbilly Elegy,” Vance’s bestselling book, mentioned him having sex with a “latex glove shoved between two couch cushions.”
The claim was completely made up by “Rick,” which is how Business Insider referred to the jokester to preserve his anonymity.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
Hmmm.
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
It looks more like the effect they had on the political parties and elections than what they did in government.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
I think there's a much bigger case for putting Powell on there than Benn.
Others in the next category down:
- David Owen - Ken Livingstone - Alex Salmond - Barbara Castle - Bill Cash
John Profumo Airey Neave Dick Taverne
You would say that wouldn't you?
There are some really left field ideas coming in thick and fast.
In some respects it's easier to suggest who definitely shouldn't be on the list. I still like the list @ydoethur compiled earlier. Who doesn't like a bit of Buttskellism?
Without Profumo perhaps the Conservatives win in 1964.
Without Neave perhaps Heath holds off Thatcher in 1975.
Without Taverne perhaps there is no SDP.
The actions of 'little people' can affect the world of politics.
A more recent example would be those final two Labour MPs who allowed Corbyn to become a Labour leader candidate.
You could also argue that it was the assassination of Airey Neave that saved the Liberal Democrats.
We like to think that fascism can’t happen in America. But it’s happening right now. A president who tried to impose elements of fascism in his first term—and who then deployed mob violence in an attempt to stay in power—is seeking a mandate to go much further. And half of the electorate is on the brink of giving him that mandate.
Haven't heard that one before but I do remember Walz peddling stories about Vance's sexual activities.
The 'Vance shags his couch' being a variant of 'hillbillies shag their sisters'.
Except Vance himself started that "rumour".
After years of condemning former President Donald Trump for spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories, Democrats are now poking fun at his running mate using a false, vulgar rumor.
The rumor, first posted on X last month, involves a fake passage about a sex act and a couch supposedly in Sen. JD Vance's 2016 book, "Hillbilly Elegy."
The lie spread like wildfire, spawning jokes and memes even as the original joke's author clarified that it wasn't real and later made his account private. Several news outlets published fact-checks of the claim.
The fervor reached a peak in Philadelphia, the day Vice President Kamala Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz told an arena filled with thousands of excited supporters: “I got to tell you, I can’t wait to debate the guy [Vance]. That is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up.”
For the past two weeks, Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has been mocked as someone who has sex with couches — a strange situation even in the no-holds-barred world of presidential politics.
Now the person who created the bizarre meme is coming clean to Business Insider about how he came up with the weird accusation.
Back on July 15, after Vance was announced as Donald Trump’s running mate, a social media user whose handle on X, formerly Twitter, was @rickrudescalves made a bogus post stating that “Hillbilly Elegy,” Vance’s bestselling book, mentioned him having sex with a “latex glove shoved between two couch cushions.”
The claim was completely made up by “Rick,” which is how Business Insider referred to the jokester to preserve his anonymity.
TBF, "I got to tell you, I can’t wait to debate the guy [Vance]. That is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up" is not actually accusing him of anything, even if it is a bit naff.
Edward Lucas of FT went canvassing for Harris in PA and struggled to find any Harris voters.
He can’t have looked very hard
Oh, one can convince oneself of anything. If you go to some rural Arizona counties, I'm sure you'll find places that are 90% Trump. And if you are in the immediate environs of Arizona State University in Phoenix, you will probably find an equal abundance of Harris voters.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
Hmmm.
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
It looks more like the effect they had on the political parties and elections than what they did in government.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
I think there's a much bigger case for putting Powell on there than Benn.
Others in the next category down:
- David Owen - Ken Livingstone - Alex Salmond - Barbara Castle - Bill Cash
John Profumo Airey Neave Dick Taverne
You would say that wouldn't you?
There are some really left field ideas coming in thick and fast.
In some respects it's easier to suggest who definitely shouldn't be on the list. I still like the list @ydoethur compiled earlier. Who doesn't like a bit of Buttskellism?
Without Profumo perhaps the Conservatives win in 1964.
Without Neave perhaps Heath holds off Thatcher in 1975.
Without Taverne perhaps there is no SDP.
The actions of 'little people' can affect the world of politics.
A more recent example would be those final two Labour MPs who allowed Corbyn to become a Labour leader candidate.
You could also argue that it was the assassination of Airey Neave that saved the Liberal Democrats.
Haven't heard that one before but I do remember Walz peddling stories about Vance's sexual activities.
The 'Vance shags his couch' being a variant of 'hillbillies shag their sisters'.
Except Vance himself started that "rumour".
After years of condemning former President Donald Trump for spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories, Democrats are now poking fun at his running mate using a false, vulgar rumor.
The rumor, first posted on X last month, involves a fake passage about a sex act and a couch supposedly in Sen. JD Vance's 2016 book, "Hillbilly Elegy."
The lie spread like wildfire, spawning jokes and memes even as the original joke's author clarified that it wasn't real and later made his account private. Several news outlets published fact-checks of the claim.
The fervor reached a peak in Philadelphia, the day Vice President Kamala Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz told an arena filled with thousands of excited supporters: “I got to tell you, I can’t wait to debate the guy [Vance]. That is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up.”
For the past two weeks, Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has been mocked as someone who has sex with couches — a strange situation even in the no-holds-barred world of presidential politics.
Now the person who created the bizarre meme is coming clean to Business Insider about how he came up with the weird accusation.
Back on July 15, after Vance was announced as Donald Trump’s running mate, a social media user whose handle on X, formerly Twitter, was @rickrudescalves made a bogus post stating that “Hillbilly Elegy,” Vance’s bestselling book, mentioned him having sex with a “latex glove shoved between two couch cushions.”
The claim was completely made up by “Rick,” which is how Business Insider referred to the jokester to preserve his anonymity.
TBF, "I got to tell you, I can’t wait to debate the guy [Vance]. That is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up" is not actually accusing him of anything, even if it is a bit naff.
You don't need to accuse when you can insinuate.
And it highlighted a problem with the Dem campaign that they preferred to attack with bigoted insinuations than to stick to the issues (where Vance was more vulnerable).
We like to think that fascism can’t happen in America. But it’s happening right now. A president who tried to impose elements of fascism in his first term—and who then deployed mob violence in an attempt to stay in power—is seeking a mandate to go much further. And half of the electorate is on the brink of giving him that mandate.
When you have the likes of Milley, Mattis, and Esper essentially saying Trump is a fascist and a threat to the US — and none of them are remotely bleeding-heart liberals — people ought to take them seriously. That people can still excuse Trump's obvious threats simply shows how his outrageous behaviour has been normalised over the last 9 years or so. Something has gone profoundly wrong with American politics. I've got no time for people who make any excuses for Trump.
Unsurprisingly the conversation of reparations has been pushed up the agenda again. If Labour decides to pay up, can Black and Asian people opt out of the additional tax as historic victims of slavery?
Regarding the inclusion of Benn: as David Edgerton points out, the 80's was basically an argument between Thatcher (and hence Joseph) and Benn. It should also be pointed out that his work on democracy inspired Brexiteers (I think Gove explicitly mentioned this?). I think the theoreticians are, for good or ill, the more interesting, so I'd also include Daniel Hannan.
The context of armed police being deployed because the vehicle was involved in an armed incident previously is important. He wasn't armed, but the police weren't to know this. If he's prepared to use his car as a weapon, I think it's a reasonable response.
Also he was planning a hit....
I am also interested whose car it was. It wasn't his and that is a £100k car, totally normal to lend that sort of car out to a random....and we aren't allowed to know the person who is on trial for carrying out the hit he was involved in the planning of.
I think there are some missing piece of puzzle we aren't been told. Whist expected to believe he was just a humble wannabe architect, who was in the wrong place wrong time.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
Hmmm.
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
It looks more like the effect they had on the political parties and elections than what they did in government.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
I think there's a much bigger case for putting Powell on there than Benn.
Others in the next category down:
- David Owen - Ken Livingstone - Alex Salmond - Barbara Castle - Bill Cash
John Profumo Airey Neave Dick Taverne
David Mellor for his part in the doom-spiral of the Major government. And the Vulcan guy. Redwood.
Unsurprisingly the conversation of reparations has been pushed up the agenda again. If Labour decides to pay up, can Black and Asian people opt out of the additional tax as historic victims of slavery?
Even Starmer isn't tinned ear enough to cave in to those demands.
How does any incumbent survive, when the voters think this of the economy?
Isn’t the key axiom: it’s the economy, stupid?
In the case of Trump edging home thanks to rust belt, the economy, voters feeling poorer than time of the last election, AND illegal immigration. How everyone laughed when Trump banged on about cats and dogs being eaten - but the cats and dogs became but a constant metaphor in minds of voters everywhere, of everything they don’t like to see in their local communities when they look outside their window.
A Trump win should not come as a surprise to any of us.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
Hmmm.
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
It looks more like the effect they had on the political parties and elections than what they did in government.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
I think there's a much bigger case for putting Powell on there than Benn.
Others in the next category down:
- David Owen - Ken Livingstone - Alex Salmond - Barbara Castle - Bill Cash
Hmmm: you can make a case for Cash (early proponent of Brexit), and Salmond (the rise of the SNP in Scotland.)
Owen is a bit... meh... because he's like Jenkins only with the number of achievements before the SDP.
And Livingstone was a nonentity as an MP.
While Barbara Castle, other than being (the first?) women cabinet minister, what's the case for her being particularly influential?
I thought the Duchess of Atholl came before her as a minister, but even she was perhaps first equal (would need to check timings).
Mrs Castle - In Place of Strife and Equal Pay Act.
Drunk Driving Laws. National Speed Limit. Seatbelts fitted to all new cars. All were prescient.
All 1966-1967.
Road deaths peaked at 8,000 in 1966. By 1980 they were down to 6,000, and 5,000 by 1990.
Just between 1966 and 1980 that's about 14,000 people who weren't dead. That uses the assumption in would have stuck 8,000 a year; in fact the trend was sharply up at that stage.
Interesting! Definitely an arguable case there.
The WW2 figure must be blackout and young services drivers (not just US lorries either), more than compensating for the reduction in driving.
The context of armed police being deployed because the vehicle was involved in an armed incident previously is important. He wasn't armed, but the police weren't to know this. If he's prepared to use his car as a weapon, I think it's a reasonable response.
Also he was planning a hit....
I am also interested whose car it was. It wasn't his and that is a £100k car, totally normal to lend that sort of car out to a random....and we aren't allowed to know the person who is on trial for carrying out the hit he was involved in the planning of.
I think there are some missing piece of puzzle we aren't been told. Whist expected to believe he was just a humble wannabe architect, who was in the wrong place wrong time.
I don’t think we are expected to believe the last bit. He was clearly involved in some pretty bad stuff, that’s obvious. He also tried to ram his borrowed car through a police roadblock, endangering officers. That, and the links to the gun offences (the hit) led to his death. He was a stupid idiotic criminal. There is presumably other cases/trials extant which is why we don’t have the full facts. We should be wary of falling into the Tommy Robinson trap.
Regarding the inclusion of Benn: as David Edgerton points out, the 80's was basically an argument between Thatcher (and hence Joseph) and Benn. It should also be pointed out that his work on democracy inspired Brexiteers (I think Gove explicitly mentioned this?). I think the theoreticians are, for good or ill, the more interesting, so I'd also include Daniel Hannan.
Hard not to laugh then that Benn lost his seat in Thatcher’s 83 landslide.
How does any incumbent survive, when the voters think this of the economy?
Isn’t the key axiom: it’s the economy, stupid?
In the case of Trump edging home thanks to rust belt, the economy, voters feeling poorer than time of the last election, AND illegal immigration. How everyone laughed when Trump banged on about cats and dogs being eaten - but the cats and dogs became but a constant metaphor in minds of voters everywhere, of everything they don’t like to see in their local communities when they look outside their window.
A Trump win should not come as a surprise to any of us.
No it shouldn't but then again if Haley was GOP nominee she would probably be heading for a landslide, it is Trump making this election still too close to call.
Plus in actual reality inflation is falling and the US economy is growing not in recession, even if voters still are feeling the effects of the lockdown
The context of armed police being deployed because the vehicle was involved in an armed incident previously is important. He wasn't armed, but the police weren't to know this. If he's prepared to use his car as a weapon, I think it's a reasonable response.
Also he was planning a hit....
I am also interested whose car it was. It wasn't his and that is a £100k car, totally normal to lend that sort of car out to a random....and we aren't allowed to know the person who is on trial for carrying out the hit he was involved in the planning of.
I think there are some missing piece of puzzle we aren't been told. Whist expected to believe he was just a humble wannabe architect, who was in the wrong place wrong time.
I don’t think we are expected to believe the last bit. He was clearly involved in some pretty bad stuff, that’s obvious. He also tried to ram his borrowed car through a police roadblock, endangering officers. That, and the links to the gun offences (the hit) led to his death. He was a stupid idiotic criminal. There is presumably other cases/trials extant which is why we don’t have the full facts. We should be wary of falling into the Tommy Robinson trap.
Not sure what you mean by the Tommy Robinson trap. I am not suggesting there is a cover up or some giant conspiracy or whatever Robinson grift is these days.
Rather that there are other trials on going in which not all the detailed are not allowed to be reported, but we do know if he hadn't been killed he would have stood trial for planning an assassination and associates have been already found guilty for their part in it.
The people protesting this evening clearly think was are supposed to believe he was just a random innocent bloke unlawfully killed by the police.
Unsurprisingly the conversation of reparations has been pushed up the agenda again. If Labour decides to pay up, can Black and Asian people opt out of the additional tax as historic victims of slavery?
Even Starmer isn't tinned ear enough to cave in to those demands.
it won't be a straight up reparations. It will be billions of pounds in "aid" money.
Unsurprisingly the conversation of reparations has been pushed up the agenda again. If Labour decides to pay up, can Black and Asian people opt out of the additional tax as historic victims of slavery?
Even Starmer isn't tinned ear enough to cave in to those demands.
it won't be a straight up reparations. It will be billions of pounds in "aid" money.
"After an hour waiting outside the sports centre where the town hall was taking place, and two more hours wandering around inside before Trump arrived, I had time for a dozen short conversations. They were mostly about how difficult life has become for people in Michigan. Factories keep closing or laying off workers, and inflation has wiped out a large chunk of their income and savings. Drugs and alcohol are everywhere. This is an America with no visible signs of wealth. From downtown Detroit to Dearborn and Warren, and then the rural counties north of Flint, there is rampant poverty, dwindling opportunities and an ageing population. By next year, more than 40 per cent of Michigan counties will have more than a quarter of their population older than 65. Many attendees told me they were unemployed. All complained about grocery prices. They spoke with little ambition for their jobs, careers, and even for their children."
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
Regarding the inclusion of Benn: as David Edgerton points out, the 80's was basically an argument between Thatcher (and hence Joseph) and Benn. It should also be pointed out that his work on democracy inspired Brexiteers (I think Gove explicitly mentioned this?). I think the theoreticians are, for good or ill, the more interesting, so I'd also include Daniel Hannan.
Hannan is a complete fraud though. Pretty much every 'intellectual' argument he's ever made has been entirely false. With disastrous results for both his party and the country.
Harris voters only know Harris voters. Trump voters only know Trump voters.
It's one of the most unhealthy things about US democracy right now.
This was one of the most striking things to me about the US the first time I went there. As a country it's incredibly diverse, but it's a diverse collection of little mono-cultures.
That said, I expect people know more voters from the other side than they think they do. A lot of people just don't like to get in an argument and if you say something a bit political they'll mirror it back to you to be friendly. I expect more so now than before, as conservative culture is getting more violent and progressive culture is getting more judgemental.
I wonder what the odds are of Harris winning the election with Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina (plus Michigan), but not carrying Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Ive seen some claims doing the rounds that GOP favouring pollsters have been pumping out a high volume of polls favouring Trump, not surprisingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
Harris voters only know Harris voters. Trump voters only know Trump voters.
It's one of the most unhealthy things about US democracy right now.
That's true here too. In the PB village Sunak would have won a landslide.
On what grounds? I can think of only about 5 who definitely voted for Sunak on here, me, BigG, TSE and JohnO and Casino
Oh come, come. @MarqueeMark putting a cross besides the yellow peril. I think not!
Onto the other question of the night. What about Hume and Trimble as a double header?
What a great debate this evening. It is of course only enabled because it is bedtime in Japan.
Pete, you assume anyone who doesn't share your consistent loathing of the Tories must be a Tory!
Now that's not a fair analysis. I utterly despise the Johnsonian Tories but I would be quite content to see a Government of Gaulke, Spreadsheet, Grieve, Soubry, Stewart and many, many others. I suspect there are many Tories who do share my loathing and despise Johnsonian Conservatives, including those former Tories named above.
Harris voters only know Harris voters. Trump voters only know Trump voters.
It's one of the most unhealthy things about US democracy right now.
That's true here too. In the PB village Sunak would have won a landslide.
On what grounds? I can think of only about 5 who definitely voted for Sunak on here, me, BigG, TSE and JohnO and Casino
Oh come, come. @MarqueeMark putting a cross besides the yellow peril. I think not!
Onto the other question of the night. What about Hume and Trimble as a double header?
What a great debate this evening. It is of course only enabled because it is bedtime in Japan.
Pete, you assume anyone who doesn't share your consistent loathing of the Tories must be a Tory!
Now that's not a fair analysis. I utterly despise the Johnsonian Tories but I would be quite content to see a Government of Gaulke, Spreadsheet, Grieve, Soubry, Stewart and many, many others. I suspect there are many Tories who do share my loathing and despise Johnsonian Conservatives, including those former Tories named above.
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
There does seem to be a momentum for Trump, although I suspect the election remains close. On the YouTube channels I watch that would indeed seem to be the case. Maybe they are all wishcasting but then maybe you are too.
Harris voters only know Harris voters. Trump voters only know Trump voters.
It's one of the most unhealthy things about US democracy right now.
That's true here too. In the PB village Sunak would have won a landslide.
On what grounds? I can think of only about 5 who definitely voted for Sunak on here, me, BigG, TSE and JohnO and Casino
Oh come, come. @MarqueeMark putting a cross besides the yellow peril. I think not!
Onto the other question of the night. What about Hume and Trimble as a double header?
What a great debate this evening. It is of course only enabled because it is bedtime in Japan.
Pete, you assume anyone who doesn't share your consistent loathing of the Tories must be a Tory!
Now that's not a fair analysis. I utterly despise the Johnsonian Tories but I would be quite content to see a Government of Gaulke, Spreadsheet, Grieve, Soubry, Stewart and many, many others. I suspect there are many Tories who do share my loathing and despise Johnsonian Conservatives, including those former Tories named above.
Startling in the severity with which voting integrity process is being treated in MIchigan.
Michigan Attorney Charging 4 votes and 3 election staff with felonies in relation to 4 cases of double voting - ie 4 people voted both in absence and on voting day, and election workers allowed them to go through over alarms on the system.
(It's always interesting which areas of law are applied precisely, and which are just ignored. For the other, try the enforcement of traffic tickets against NYPD employees, or where they have deliberately obscured their number plates.)
The Serious Fraud Office is investigating the construction of a hotel and conference centre owned by one of the UK’s biggest trade unions, the BBC can reveal.
Unite the Union spent a total of £112m of its members’ money on the project in Birmingham.
The building has since been valued at just £29m, suggesting £83m has been wasted.
A KC-led inquiry commissioned by Unite’s general secretary Sharon Graham also identified a missing £14m which has been described as a “mystery” and does not feature in the project’s final accounts.
The Serious Fraud Office is investigating the construction of a hotel and conference centre owned by one of the UK’s biggest trade unions, the BBC can reveal.
Unite the Union spent a total of £112m of its members’ money on the project in Birmingham.
The building has since been valued at just £29m, suggesting £83m has been wasted.
A KC-led inquiry commissioned by Unite’s general secretary Sharon Graham also identified a missing £14m which has been described as a “mystery” and does not feature in the project’s final accounts.
Just a quick note on Israel-Iran. It is unlikely there will be any more cabinet meetings or anything else before an attack. The US is still desperately trying to tamper down the Israeli response and the reported visit by the ever smooth Anthony Blinken to Jerusalem tomorrow (that is Tuesday) is noteworthy as perhaps another delay tactic.
Israels own delays are around shoring up defences. The US THAAD battery is now ready, though Israel has asked for another, not an easy thing for the US to release. The other concern Israel has is that it hasnt got enough anti ballistic missiles in stock. Israeli companies are doing 24/7 shifts to keep them coming. The other self imposed delay is simple strategic ambiguity.
One of the most striking features of modern American politics is the number of mixed marriages among prominent politicians. I'll mention just a few: Mitch McConnell, Nikki Haley, Kamala Harris, Jeb Bush, and Clarence Thomas.
Or are the children of mixed marriages, for example, Bruce Harrell (Seattle mayor). In Oklahoma, it is still a political plus to be part Indian.
In general both those mixes seem to be political pluses -- in most places. Despite the efforts of those who favor identity politics.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
Since the beginning of the month, the national gap has shrunk from a 2.8 percentage points Harris lead, to a 1.8% one. Most of this has come from Trump increasing his share of the vote from 45.7% to 46.4%, while Harris has just shed 0.2% to 48.2%.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Cameron's old PPE tutor, has included Farage in his list of the 6 most influential UK politicians since WW2 who never became PM which form the basis of his new book.
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
Hmmm.
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
It looks more like the effect they had on the political parties and elections than what they did in government.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
I think there's a much bigger case for putting Powell on there than Benn.
Others in the next category down:
- David Owen - Ken Livingstone - Alex Salmond - Barbara Castle - Bill Cash
Hmmm: you can make a case for Cash (early proponent of Brexit), and Salmond (the rise of the SNP in Scotland.)
Owen is a bit... meh... because he's like Jenkins only with the number of achievements before the SDP.
And Livingstone was a nonentity as an MP.
While Barbara Castle, other than being (the first?) women cabinet minister, what's the case for her being particularly influential?
I thought the Duchess of Atholl came before her as a minister, but even she was perhaps first equal (would need to check timings).
Mrs Castle - In Place of Strife and Equal Pay Act.
Drunk Driving Laws. National Speed Limit. Seatbelts fitted to all new cars. All were prescient.
All 1966-1967.
Road deaths peaked at 8,000 in 1966. By 1980 they were down to 6,000, and 5,000 by 1990.
Just between 1966 and 1980 that's about 14,000 people who weren't dead. That uses the assumption in would have stuck 8,000 a year; in fact the trend was sharply up at that stage.
Interesting! Definitely an arguable case there.
The WW2 figure must be blackout and young services drivers (not just US lorries either), more than compensating for the reduction in driving.
I'm interested in the two knees on the chart where improvement stopped in 1997 and 2010.
2010 was Cameron dropping the New Labour casualty reduction targets.
What happened to stall improvement between 1997 and 2003 ?
Harris voters only know Harris voters. Trump voters only know Trump voters.
It's one of the most unhealthy things about US democracy right now.
That's true here too. In the PB village Sunak would have won a landslide.
On what grounds? I can think of only about 5 who definitely voted for Sunak on here, me, BigG, TSE and JohnO and Casino
Oh come, come. @MarqueeMark putting a cross besides the yellow peril. I think not!
Onto the other question of the night. What about Hume and Trimble as a double header?
What a great debate this evening. It is of course only enabled because it is bedtime in Japan.
Pete, you assume anyone who doesn't share your consistent loathing of the Tories must be a Tory!
Now that's not a fair analysis. I utterly despise the Johnsonian Tories but I would be quite content to see a Government of Gaulke, Spreadsheet, Grieve, Soubry, Stewart and many, many others. I suspect there are many Tories who do share my loathing and despise Johnsonian Conservatives, including those former Tories named above.
Is that Spreadsheet Shapps or Spreadsheet Hammond
I think you may have misheard the adjective for Shapps. It's not spreadsheet, it's spreadsh[That's enough - Ed]
One of the most striking features of modern American politics is the number of mixed marriages among prominent politicians. I'll mention just a few: Mitch McConnell, Nikki Haley, Kamala Harris, Jeb Bush, and Clarence Thomas.
Or are the children of mixed marriages, for example, Bruce Harrell (Seattle mayor). In Oklahoma, it is still a political plus to be part Indian.
In general both those mixes seem to be political pluses -- in most places. Despite the efforts of those who favor identity politics.
Or perhaps BECAUSE of identity politics? Which is NOT as inevitably as blinkered and narrow as some may suppose.
In New Brunswick, the incumbent Tories are more than losing, they are getting a right kicking by the voters.
Liberal Party 158,856 48.6% = 31 elected or leading (+14 since 2020) Progressive Conservative Party 114,182 34.9% = 16 elected or leading (-11) Green Party 44,540 13.6% = 2 elected or leading (-1)
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
Since the beginning of the month, the national gap has shrunk from a 2.8 percentage points Harris lead, to a 1.8% one. Most of this has come from Trump increasing his share of the vote from 45.7% to 46.4%, while Harris has just shed 0.2% to 48.2%.
Kamala ate her lunch quickly and is now looking around for afters, finding none. Trump ate his lunch more slowly and has still to clean his plate. We don't know who has more food.
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
Since the beginning of the month, the national gap has shrunk from a 2.8 percentage points Harris lead, to a 1.8% one. Most of this has come from Trump increasing his share of the vote from 45.7% to 46.4%, while Harris has just shed 0.2% to 48.2%.
Kamala ate her lunch quickly and is now looking around for afters, finding none. Trump ate his lunch more slowly and has still to clean his plate. We don't know who has more food.
Nor do we know if the changes the pollsters have made have made them better at finding Trump voters, nor if in their attempts to weight by past vote they may have overcorrected.
Nor do we know if the abortion referendums in Arizona, Nevada and Florida will have any impact on turnout.
Essentially, all we know right now is that the pollsters say it is close.
And it might be. Or it might not be.
Neither Trump +5, not Harris +5 would surprise me that much, even though that is a difference of 14 million votes between the margins of the two candidates.
In New Brunswick, the incumbent Tories are more than losing, they are getting a right kicking by the voters.
Liberal Party 158,856 48.6% = 31 elected or leading (+14 since 2020) Progressive Conservative Party 114,182 34.9% = 16 elected or leading (-11) Green Party 44,540 13.6% = 2 elected or leading (-1)
They went Woke, and ignored their own base. Sound familiar?
"Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance."
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
Since the beginning of the month, the national gap has shrunk from a 2.8 percentage points Harris lead, to a 1.8% one. Most of this has come from Trump increasing his share of the vote from 45.7% to 46.4%, while Harris has just shed 0.2% to 48.2%.
Kamala ate her lunch quickly and is now looking around for afters, finding none. Trump ate his lunch more slowly and has still to clean his plate. We don't know who has more food.
Nor do we know if the changes the pollsters have made have made them better at finding Trump voters, nor if in their attempts to weight by past vote they may have overcorrected.
Nor do we know if the abortion referendums in Arizona, Nevada and Florida will have any impact on turnout.
Essentially, all we know right now is that the pollsters say it is close.
And it might be. Or it might not be.
Neither Trump +5, not Harris +5 would surprise me that much, even though that is a difference of 14 million votes between the margins of the two candidates.
Well yes, but I do have to bring you up on one point, specifically "Nor do we know if the changes the pollsters have made have made them better at finding Trump voters"
In the UK, changes made due to the previous election (from memory) made things worse in 2015, 2017, and 2024. Adjustments to the weights and variables are only best-guesses based on the last election, and the last election was exceptional, being held in the middle of a pandemic.
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.
It's probably getting more and more difficult for pollsters to get accurate results because the population as a whole (in most countries) is getting increasingly diverse in lots of different ways that no-one fully understands.
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
Since the beginning of the month, the national gap has shrunk from a 2.8 percentage points Harris lead, to a 1.8% one. Most of this has come from Trump increasing his share of the vote from 45.7% to 46.4%, while Harris has just shed 0.2% to 48.2%.
Kamala ate her lunch quickly and is now looking around for afters, finding none. Trump ate his lunch more slowly and has still to clean his plate. We don't know who has more food.
Nor do we know if the changes the pollsters have made have made them better at finding Trump voters, nor if in their attempts to weight by past vote they may have overcorrected.
Nor do we know if the abortion referendums in Arizona, Nevada and Florida will have any impact on turnout.
Essentially, all we know right now is that the pollsters say it is close.
And it might be. Or it might not be.
Neither Trump +5, not Harris +5 would surprise me that much, even though that is a difference of 14 million votes between the margins of the two candidates.
Well yes, but I do have to bring you up on one point, specifically "Nor do we know if the changes the pollsters have made have made them better at finding Trump voters"
In the UK, changes made due to the previous election (from memory) made things worse in 2015, 2017, and 2024. Adjustments to the weights and variables are only best-guesses based on the last election, and the last election was exceptional, being held in the middle of a pandemic.
The pollsters' fallacy is to try to fix sampling problems by weighting. Finding the Trump demographics missed last time is a sampling issue.
In New Brunswick, the incumbent Tories are more than losing, they are getting a right kicking by the voters.
Liberal Party 158,856 48.6% = 31 elected or leading (+14 since 2020) Progressive Conservative Party 114,182 34.9% = 16 elected or leading (-11) Green Party 44,540 13.6% = 2 elected or leading (-1)
They went Woke, and ignored their own base. Sound familiar?
"Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance."
Source of quatation?
Note that "in the wake of" doing a LOT of lifting, for example implying that ALL of NB Progressive Conservative governing caucus resignations/retirements due to anti-Wokeism?
Any actual evidence that PC base is actually as anti-gay/trans as you are? OR that the today's election was lost because PC's "ignored their own base".
It appears they may have lost by catering toooooooo much to their base!
More recent polling (from this summer) shows that BIG ISSUE for voters was/is health care.
Fun fact: while new Premier Susan Holt affirmed her support for LBGT New Brunswickers in her victory speech tonight, her husband stood behind her . . . wearing a large rainbow flag belt-buckle.
Ive seen some claims doing the roubds that GOP favouring pollsters havew been pumping out a highy volume of polls favouring Trump, not surpsingly, in order to create an impression
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
However since those claims started circulating, the shift to Trump has been backed up by 'high-quality' polls, so it seems to be real.
Since the beginning of the month, the national gap has shrunk from a 2.8 percentage points Harris lead, to a 1.8% one. Most of this has come from Trump increasing his share of the vote from 45.7% to 46.4%, while Harris has just shed 0.2% to 48.2%.
I suspect this is the most accurate assessment of current polling on PB tonight. I tend to follow anti-Trump YouTube channels and they seem to remain reasonably comfortable (wishcasting?) but stress the need to get voting to ensure Trump doesn't win. We seem to opine on PB that Trump is home and hosed, quite possibly because we have a handful of Trump rampers who only post Trump-positive polls. Now they may be on the money of course, but I like your analysis better.
In New Brunswick, the incumbent Tories are more than losing, they are getting a right kicking by the voters.
Liberal Party 158,856 48.6% = 31 elected or leading (+14 since 2020) Progressive Conservative Party 114,182 34.9% = 16 elected or leading (-11) Green Party 44,540 13.6% = 2 elected or leading (-1)
They went Woke, and ignored their own base. Sound familiar?
"Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance."
Note that "in the wake of" doing a LOT of lifting, for example implying that ALL of NB Progressive Conservative governing caucus resignations/retirements due to anti-Wokeism?
Any actual evidence that PC base is actually as anti-gay/trans as you are? OR that the today's election was lost because PC's "ignored their own base".
Just eyeballing the opinion polls in that wikipedia article, it seems that most of the decline in PC support occurred in 2020-1, and seemed to coincide with housing being the main issue. There was another, smaller, decline in the past year, when healthcare and 713 seemed more salient.
Obviously none of us know anything about New Brunswick politics, but from the sparse data in the wikipedia article, the above seems plausible.
In New Brunswick, the incumbent Tories are more than losing, they are getting a right kicking by the voters.
Liberal Party 158,856 48.6% = 31 elected or leading (+14 since 2020) Progressive Conservative Party 114,182 34.9% = 16 elected or leading (-11) Green Party 44,540 13.6% = 2 elected or leading (-1)
They went Woke, and ignored their own base. Sound familiar?
"Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance."
Source of quatation?
Note that "in the wake of" doing a LOT of lifting, for example implying that ALL of NB Progressive Conservative governing caucus resignations/retirements due to anti-Wokeism?
Any actual evidence that PC base is actually as anti-gay/trans as you are? OR that the today's election was lost because PC's "ignored their own base".
It appears they may have lost by catering toooooooo much to their base!
More recent polling (from this summer) shows that BIG ISSUE for voters was/is health care.
Fun fact: while new Premier Susan Holt affirmed her support for LBGT New Brunswickers in her victory speech tonight, her husband stood behind her . . . wearing a large rainbow flag belt-buckle.
There was a rain 'crash' (collision) in Wales last night; one person died of a heart attack. It looks as though a train lost traction and slid into a loop, where it hit a waiting train.
The railways still haven't got over the problems of leaf fall in autumn and the light DMUs used nowadays (heavy trains tend to break down the leaf mulch and make better contact with the rail). Apparently a railhead treatment train, which is designed to break down the mulch on the rails passed along the line yesterday.
There was a rain 'crash' (collision) in Wales last night; one person died of a heart attack. It looks as though a train lost traction and slid into a loop, where it hit a waiting train.
The railways still haven't got over the problems of leaf fall in autumn and the light DMUs used nowadays (heavy trains tend to break down the leaf mulch and make better contact with the rail). Apparently a railhead treatment train, which is designed to break down the mulch on the rails passed along the line yesterday.
A low coefficient of friction is both a blessing and a curse for railways.
Breaking: A woman was wedged between boulders for seven hours after she slipped head-first into a three-metre crevice while trying to retrieve her phone in regional New South Wales.
There was a rain 'crash' (collision) in Wales last night; one person died of a heart attack. It looks as though a train lost traction and slid into a loop, where it hit a waiting train.
The railways still haven't got over the problems of leaf fall in autumn and the light DMUs used nowadays (heavy trains tend to break down the leaf mulch and make better contact with the rail). Apparently a railhead treatment train, which is designed to break down the mulch on the rails passed along the line yesterday.
Oh crap, that’s the Aberystwyth train. From memory that line is single track pretty much all the way from Shrewsbury to Machynlleth, with only a couple of passing places for the trains to cross. It was common to have to sit and wait for the other train to arrive. Very rural area.
There was a rain 'crash' (collision) in Wales last night; one person died of a heart attack. It looks as though a train lost traction and slid into a loop, where it hit a waiting train.
The railways still haven't got over the problems of leaf fall in autumn and the light DMUs used nowadays (heavy trains tend to break down the leaf mulch and make better contact with the rail). Apparently a railhead treatment train, which is designed to break down the mulch on the rails passed along the line yesterday.
Even allowing for leaf mould, we should be asking how the points were set in such a way that an approaching train ended up in the wrong part of a passing loop.
Details are a bit scanty but it’s presumably at Talerddig where there is a steep hill - indeed, the passing loop was retained so there would be time to pin/unpin the brakes in the days before DMUs.
Haven't heard that one before but I do remember Walz peddling stories about Vance's sexual activities.
The 'Vance shags his couch' being a variant of 'hillbillies shag their sisters'.
Don't worry. I think your team has got this. Hats off to William Glenn for his endeavours.
Still don't see the attraction myself mind.
I want Trump to lose.
Perhaps if Harris and Walz stuck to the issues instead of spouting bigoted crap they would be more likely to win.
Trump does nothing *but* spout bigoted crap, so even if you were right (which you are not) that can’t be a possible explanation.
Not logically true
Trump voters are looking for a solution to their tough lies
Trump offers them that (albeit simplistic and one that one work, but they don’t know that).
Harris/Walz don’t
I’m not sure of your point, unless you say that babbling nonsense about sharks, eating pets, Jesus counting ballots, racist abuse of his rival and the deep state is not ‘bigoted crap’ and is instead somehow a solution to people’s ills.
F1: tipped Ferrari yesterday for the Constructors', at 9.5. Now down to 6. If they have a good Mexico, this may be hedgeable sooner rather than later, but as I've also backed McLaren at 4.1 I'll just let it ride, most likely.
There was a rain 'crash' (collision) in Wales last night; one person died of a heart attack. It looks as though a train lost traction and slid into a loop, where it hit a waiting train.
The railways still haven't got over the problems of leaf fall in autumn and the light DMUs used nowadays (heavy trains tend to break down the leaf mulch and make better contact with the rail). Apparently a railhead treatment train, which is designed to break down the mulch on the rails passed along the line yesterday.
Even allowing for leaf mould, we should be asking how the points were set in such a way that an approaching train ended up in the wrong part of a passing loop.
Details are a bit scanty but it’s presumably at Talerddig where there is a steep hill - indeed, the passing loop was retained so there would be time to pin/unpin the brakes in the days before DMUs.
Yes, I wondered that. Apparently it is one of the test lines for the new ETCS level 2 signalling system, though I doubt that would have had much bearing on the issue.
A few decades ago, there was a crash in ?Essex? where the first passenger train on a Monday morning went into the buffers at a terminus. The previous day, the line had been closed for tests. They had put a gel on the rails to lower adhesion and ran trains along to test different techniques to counter it. This was a couple of miles away from the terminus.
Except they did not clean the rails properly. The first service train the nest day went along the line, got its wheels coated in the gel, and could not stop.
There was a rain 'crash' (collision) in Wales last night; one person died of a heart attack. It looks as though a train lost traction and slid into a loop, where it hit a waiting train.
The railways still haven't got over the problems of leaf fall in autumn and the light DMUs used nowadays (heavy trains tend to break down the leaf mulch and make better contact with the rail). Apparently a railhead treatment train, which is designed to break down the mulch on the rails passed along the line yesterday.
Even allowing for leaf mould, we should be asking how the points were set in such a way that an approaching train ended up in the wrong part of a passing loop.
Details are a bit scanty but it’s presumably at Talerddig where there is a steep hill - indeed, the passing loop was retained so there would be time to pin/unpin the brakes in the days before DMUs.
Sounds like it’s close to there, possibly at Llanbrynmair a couple of miles NW of Talerddig.
Haven't heard that one before but I do remember Walz peddling stories about Vance's sexual activities.
The 'Vance shags his couch' being a variant of 'hillbillies shag their sisters'.
Don't worry. I think your team has got this. Hats off to William Glenn for his endeavours.
Still don't see the attraction myself mind.
I want Trump to lose.
Perhaps if Harris and Walz stuck to the issues instead of spouting bigoted crap they would be more likely to win.
Trump does nothing *but* spout bigoted crap, so even if you were right (which you are not) that can’t be a possible explanation.
Not logically true
Trump voters are looking for a solution to their tough lies
Trump offers them that (albeit simplistic and one that one work, but they don’t know that).
Harris/Walz don’t
I’m not sure of your point, unless you say that babbling nonsense about sharks, eating pets, Jesus counting ballots, racist abuse of his rival and the deep state is not ‘bigoted crap’ and is instead somehow a solution to people’s ills.
He’s saying “your life is shit, it’s not your fault. It’s the others. I’m going to protect you and look after you”.
Everything else is details.
It’s garbage but it’s appealing.
The Democrats are not communicating a solution that works to the left behind.
Comments
Some are people who do a lot in government (or perhaps opposition) without being in the right place at the right time get the top job. Healy or Butler or Heseltine, say. Kinnock or Ashdown, perhaps.
Others are disruptors. They mostly threw stones, but one or more of those stones hit. Suspect that's where you put Benn, Farage, Powell.
Unite the Union spent a total of £112m of its members’ money on the project in Birmingham.
The building has since been valued at just £29m, suggesting £83m has been wasted.
A KC-led inquiry commissioned by Unite’s general secretary Sharon Graham also identified a missing £14m which has been described as a “mystery” and does not feature in the project’s final accounts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn5z54236wgo
The rumor, first posted on X last month, involves a fake passage about a sex act and a couch supposedly in Sen. JD Vance's 2016 book, "Hillbilly Elegy."
The lie spread like wildfire, spawning jokes and memes even as the original joke's author clarified that it wasn't real and later made his account private. Several news outlets published fact-checks of the claim.
The fervor reached a peak in Philadelphia, the day Vice President Kamala Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz told an arena filled with thousands of excited supporters: “I got to tell you, I can’t wait to debate the guy [Vance]. That is, if he’s willing to get off the couch and show up.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-false-jd-vance-couch-trump-misinformation-rcna166155
For the past two weeks, Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has been mocked as someone who has sex with couches — a strange situation even in the no-holds-barred world of presidential politics.
Now the person who created the bizarre meme is coming clean to Business Insider about how he came up with the weird accusation.
Back on July 15, after Vance was announced as Donald Trump’s running mate, a social media user whose handle on X, formerly Twitter, was @rickrudescalves made a bogus post stating that “Hillbilly Elegy,” Vance’s bestselling book, mentioned him having sex with a “latex glove shoved between two couch cushions.”
The claim was completely made up by “Rick,” which is how Business Insider referred to the jokester to preserve his anonymity.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jd-vance-couch-sex-meme-creator_n_66a94103e4b0a3cd43f77791
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/lets-be-honest-trumps-running-as
And it highlighted a problem with the Dem campaign that they preferred to attack with bigoted insinuations than to stick to the issues (where Vance was more vulnerable).
A row of self-driving waymos queuing to pick up concertgoers in SF last night
I am also interested whose car it was. It wasn't his and that is a £100k car, totally normal to lend that sort of car out to a random....and we aren't allowed to know the person who is on trial for carrying out the hit he was involved in the planning of.
I think there are some missing piece of puzzle we aren't been told. Whist expected to believe he was just a humble wannabe architect, who was in the wrong place wrong time.
https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/21/most-voters-say-economy-is-poor/
How does any incumbent survive, when the voters think this of the economy?
Isn’t the key axiom: it’s the economy, stupid?
In the case of Trump edging home thanks to rust belt, the economy, voters feeling poorer than time of the last election, AND illegal immigration. How everyone laughed when Trump banged on about cats and dogs being eaten - but the cats and dogs became but a constant metaphor in minds of voters everywhere, of everything they don’t like to see in their local communities when they look outside their window.
A Trump win should not come as a surprise to any of us.
The WW2 figure must be blackout and young services drivers (not just US lorries either), more than compensating for the reduction in driving.
There is presumably other cases/trials extant which is why we don’t have the full facts. We should be wary of falling into the Tommy Robinson trap.
Plus in actual reality inflation is falling and the US economy is growing not in recession, even if voters still are feeling the effects of the lockdown
Rather that there are other trials on going in which not all the detailed are not allowed to be reported, but we do know if he hadn't been killed he would have stood trial for planning an assassination and associates have been already found guilty for their part in it.
The people protesting this evening clearly think was are supposed to believe he was just a random innocent bloke unlawfully killed by the police.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2576167/media
Full poll details:
https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ifn0l6bs/production/7c56e606b1909778e15af5643bff9346a1d76bd8.pdf
https://www.timesofisrael.com/71-of-us-jewish-voters-in-7-swing-states-favor-harris-democrat-affiliated-poll-finds/
"After an hour waiting outside the sports centre where the town hall was taking place, and two more hours wandering around inside before Trump arrived, I had time for a dozen short conversations. They were mostly about how difficult life has become for people in Michigan. Factories keep closing or laying off workers, and inflation has wiped out a large chunk of their income and savings. Drugs and alcohol are everywhere.
This is an America with no visible signs of wealth. From downtown Detroit to Dearborn and Warren, and then the rural counties north of Flint, there is rampant poverty, dwindling opportunities and an ageing population. By next year, more than 40 per cent of Michigan counties will have more than a quarter of their population older than 65. Many attendees told me they were unemployed. All complained about grocery prices. They spoke with little ambition for their jobs, careers, and even for their children."
And this guy calls himself a political scientist!!!
That said, I expect people know more voters from the other side than they think they do. A lot of people just don't like to get in an argument and if you say something a bit political they'll mirror it back to you to be friendly. I expect more so now than before, as conservative culture is getting more violent and progressive culture is getting more judgemental.
No idea how much veracity to it but nothing would surprise me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVEDPPanW0E
Shapps is on my naughty list.
https://x.com/danscavino/status/1848075113238852092
Michigan Attorney Charging 4 votes and 3 election staff with felonies in relation to 4 cases of double voting - ie 4 people voted both in absence and on voting day, and election workers allowed them to go through over alarms on the system.
Penalties are up to 5 years.
"Election Integrity Matters"
Michigan AG announces charges in double-voting case
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyFSPoG4S4k
(It's always interesting which areas of law are applied precisely, and which are just ignored. For the other, try the enforcement of traffic tickets against NYPD employees, or where they have deliberately obscured their number plates.)
Initial results looking good for NB Liberals versus incumbent NB Progressive Conservatives, but still WAY too early to tell.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/new-brunswick/2024/results/
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6538524
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8PUJTwlYgw
Israels own delays are around shoring up defences. The US THAAD battery is now ready, though Israel has asked for another, not an easy thing for the US to release. The other concern Israel has is that it hasnt got enough anti ballistic missiles in stock. Israeli companies are doing 24/7 shifts to keep them coming. The other self imposed delay is simple strategic ambiguity.
Or are the children of mixed marriages, for example, Bruce Harrell (Seattle mayor). In Oklahoma, it is still a political plus to be part Indian.
In general both those mixes seem to be political pluses -- in most places. Despite the efforts of those who favor identity politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_University_of_Oxford_people_with_PPE_degrees
Since the beginning of the month, the national gap has shrunk from a 2.8 percentage points Harris lead, to a 1.8% one. Most of this has come from Trump increasing his share of the vote from 45.7% to 46.4%, while Harris has just shed 0.2% to 48.2%.
2010 was Cameron dropping the New Labour casualty reduction targets.
What happened to stall improvement between 1997 and 2003 ?
With Liberal leader Susan Hicks to be first Premier in NB history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Americans
Liberal Party
158,856 48.6% = 31 elected or leading (+14 since 2020)
Progressive Conservative Party
114,182 34.9% = 16 elected or leading (-11)
Green Party
44,540 13.6% = 2 elected or leading (-1)
Trump ate his lunch more slowly and has still to clean his plate.
We don't know who has more food.
Nor do we know if the abortion referendums in Arizona, Nevada and Florida will have any impact on turnout.
Essentially, all we know right now is that the pollsters say it is close.
And it might be. Or it might not be.
Neither Trump +5, not Harris +5 would surprise me that much, even though that is a difference of 14 million votes between the margins of the two candidates.
"Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance."
In the UK, changes made due to the previous election (from memory) made things worse in 2015, 2017, and 2024. Adjustments to the weights and variables are only best-guesses based on the last election, and the last election was exceptional, being held in the middle of a pandemic.
The question is are the pollsters right?
And - basically - in 2020, what you should have done is throw away the State polling, see that Biden was running about 2.5% ahead of Hillary in the national polling, and simply add that to her vote count in every State. Which would have gotten you almost exactly the right result.
Note that "in the wake of" doing a LOT of lifting, for example implying that ALL of NB Progressive Conservative governing caucus resignations/retirements due to anti-Wokeism?
Any actual evidence that PC base is actually as anti-gay/trans as you are? OR that the today's election was lost because PC's "ignored their own base".
It appears they may have lost by catering toooooooo much to their base!
More recent polling (from this summer) shows that BIG ISSUE for voters was/is health care.
https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024-2651-N.B.-Political-July-Omni-Populated-report.pdf
Fun fact: while new Premier Susan Holt affirmed her support for LBGT New Brunswickers in her victory speech tonight, her husband stood behind her . . . wearing a large rainbow flag belt-buckle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Brunswick_general_election Just eyeballing the opinion polls in that wikipedia article, it seems that most of the decline in PC support occurred in 2020-1, and seemed to coincide with housing being the main issue. There was another, smaller, decline in the past year, when healthcare and 713 seemed more salient.
Obviously none of us know anything about New Brunswick politics, but from the sparse data in the wikipedia article, the above seems plausible.
Cool, isn't it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0yg7m8meo
The railways still haven't got over the problems of leaf fall in autumn and the light DMUs used nowadays (heavy trains tend to break down the leaf mulch and make better contact with the rail). Apparently a railhead treatment train, which is designed to break down the mulch on the rails passed along the line yesterday.
- Introducing... Surviving Politics with Michael Gove
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- Surviving Politics with Michael Gove: Humza Yousaf
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00244lr/episodes/guideTrump voters are looking for a solution to their tough lies
Trump offers them that (albeit simplistic and one that one work, but they don’t know that).
Harris/Walz don’t
Details are a bit scanty but it’s presumably at Talerddig where there is a steep hill - indeed, the passing loop was retained so there would be time to pin/unpin the brakes in the days before DMUs.
F1: tipped Ferrari yesterday for the Constructors', at 9.5. Now down to 6. If they have a good Mexico, this may be hedgeable sooner rather than later, but as I've also backed McLaren at 4.1 I'll just let it ride, most likely.
A few decades ago, there was a crash in ?Essex? where the first passenger train on a Monday morning went into the buffers at a terminus. The previous day, the line had been closed for tests. They had put a gel on the rails to lower adhesion and ran trains along to test different techniques to counter it. This was a couple of miles away from the terminus.
Except they did not clean the rails properly. The first service train the nest day went along the line, got its wheels coated in the gel, and could not stop.
(From memory; details might be wrong...)
The first steps on Mrs J's path to becoming a mad cat lady.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/21/two-trains-crash-wales-llanbrynmair-powys/
There’s about 10 miles of A470/A489 closed, from Glantwymyn to the junction at Plas Llysyn, 2/3 of the way to Caersws, according to Google Maps.
(Good luck to any English journos trying to type all those names out this morning!)
Everything else is details.
It’s garbage but it’s appealing.
The Democrats are not communicating a solution that works to the left behind.