Categories
A blast from the past – politicalbetting.com
A blast from the past – politicalbetting.com
10 years ago this month: 48% of Britons thought UKIP would still be an important force in British politics by now, while the Lib Dems would have faded awayhttps://t.co/SH80QUprY2 pic.twitter.com/RxnXOHskXp
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
No demographic group is more Democratic than graduates. And the Dems hung on there at the midterms.
So, I'd reckon the Dems should be favorite to hold onto Nevada. (With the disclaimer, of course, that anything is possible. It could be Trump by 5 or Harris by 5.
Worth noting that Nevada also has an abortion access measure on the ballot, but abortion is not such a hot topic there, because there's a Democratic majority in the State House and Senate, which means we haven't seen the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot by passing an unpopular ban.
Nigel Farage left UKIP and created Reform instead - so yep a brand has disappeared but Farage is still around attracting a particular type of voter...
It'd be like thinking the Liberal Party would still be around in notable form and being wrong because the Liberal Democrats exist instead (Not a perfect analogy with the UKIP/Brexit/Reform change, but I think close enough).
The LDs there were some real questions about for awhile, given their voteshare has remained stubbornly low, but boy did they maximise their support perfectly, which must have been beyond anyone's expectation. They even have very close to proportionate numbers of MPs now.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1848393888853065808
The context of armed police being deployed because the vehicle was involved in an armed incident previously is important. He wasn't armed, but the police weren't to know this. If he's prepared to use his car as a weapon, I think it's a reasonable response.
Former Conservative Justice Secretary David Gauke appointed to lead review of prison sentencing by Keir Starmer"
https://x.com/BBCPolitics/status/1848349041408585741
David Gauke said he'd wasted £39 on joining the Tories after Cleverly was knocked out.
A pedant unhelpfully speculates that the author might be a lawyer.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/nevada/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/nevada/
If he's doing that much better against such a demographic headwind, maybe it's a bullish sign for him nationally?
Sad.
FWIW, none of the campaigns seem to be doing much in Nevada. I was there all last week, and it was a deadzone for campaigning, even compared to California.
The contrast with Arizona is incredible: in AZ, every corner has posters for Trump, Harris, Gallegos, Lake or the abortion ballot proposition. If you watch YouTube in Arizona, then every advert is a political one.
At the moment while the LDs did gain significant numbers of seats at the general election they failed in their opposition to stop Brexit in 2019. Unless and until a minority Labour government requires their support to stay in office they remain of little relevance beyond the few councils they control
Harris has to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and one of NE 02 or Georgia, she can also win without Nevada
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nevada_gubernatorial_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nevada
By UKIP do you mean a word, an organisation denoted by a name, an organisation, a concept, or a social imaginary?
Word: faded
Name of organisation: faded
Organisation: doing fine under different name
Concept: doing fine, mostly the concept being articulated as 'Reform'
Social imaginary: doing fine despite occasional riots; undoubtedly part of the framework of values and institutions making up the social whole, but not under that name.
Given all the problems there are with opinion polling I am surprised it does as well as it does. The national vote share margin in 2020 was only out by about 3.5pp. Obviously that error is large enough to swing the election for either candidate, but that's a function of the race being close, not the opinion polls being particularly untrustworthy.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Today’s polling has been a mixed bag so far . Rasmussen popped up with its customary Trump lead . The Washington Post had some decent results for both candidates.
How many other states did the GOP get swings to them in all three of governor, senate and house elections in 2022.
Not AZ, GA, MI, NC, WI or PA.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/
https://www.fixourhouse.org/resources/fix-our-house-redistricting-report
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2022/congressional-redistricting-maps-by-state-and-district/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/redistricting-tracker-map/
I have friends at the CPS and in the legal profession who rightly predicted given the situation any comments that sought to condone, glorify, encourage, or assist the disorder were likely to lead to the rozzers getting involved.
Robert, myself, and the moderation team had to remove several comments that violated that (along with somebody posting the locations of the upcoming disorder.
Remember you probably didn't see the deleted comments.
OGH has made it clear he doesn't want any legal issues on PB or the potential of damages, so if we appear overly cautious that's why and we're not going to apologise for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvFV7EcilxM
https://x.com/mrmbrown/status/1848307553567957361?s=61
Benn, Bevan, Powell, Jenkins and Joseph also make the list
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Making-Weather-Politicians-Changed-Britain-ebook/dp/B0DDSZXLXC
"Christ is Lord.
Cry about it."
(Sorry, but it was irresistible)
The standout ones for me are Jenkins and Farage for what they achieved, although Bevan also maybe, but he is before my time. Benn, Powell and Joseph I don't think achieved as much.
A missing one is possibly Healy.
AZ - R +6.0%
GA - R +1.3%
MI - D +0.2%
NC - R +2.6%
WI - R +4.1%
PA - R +1.8%
In every state except Michigan, you saw the Republican House vote rise between 1.3% and 6.0%. And Nevada - at 4% - would have been right in the middle of that range.
SCOOP:
Remember the baseless conspiracy being pushed on [Twitter] last week about Tim Walz abusing a former student?
Turns out, it came from Russia...
https://x.com/daithaigilbert/status/1848441852422479972
Gideon Rachman" (£)
https://www.ft.com/content/19ef9629-805f-49aa-81bc-54c84240b733
I would have said missing out Butler, Gaitskell, Dalton, Cripps, Crosland and Macleod for the likes of Powell or Jenkins raises some serious questions over the reliability of that list.
Really, it’s always bound to be subjective, but the omissions are pretty glaring. Sounds more like a wish list of people he’s heard of and wants to write about than a realistic assessment of who mattered and when.
However it could have been worse. He could have included Roy Hattersley.
The 'Vance shags his couch' being a variant of 'hillbillies shag their sisters'.
Powell's legacy is he made an incendiary speech in Birmingham and Jenkins just enjoyed the sauce too much. I despise Farage so one would expect me not to place him on a list of influentials on those grounds alone. If he were to enter a list of influencers it would be for wholly negative endeavours.
P.S. And Benn? Far too keen on consuming his own Koolade. One could add Corbyn to that particular list of left wing no- marks.
Powell with his effect on 1970 and 1974.
Jenkins with his effect on the SDP and 1983.
Still don't see the attraction myself mind.
Perhaps if Harris and Walz stuck to the issues instead of spouting bigoted crap they would be more likely to win.
I guess the whole idea is to produce six people who (a) were never Prime Minister, but (b) had an outsized impact on the politics of the UK, then he should definitely be there.
The one I am doubtful of is Benn. Simply: what did he achieve that made such a big difference? I mean he led the left wing group of the Labour Party... but he didn't lead an intellectual revolution, like Joseph. Or split the Labour Party, like Jenkins, etc etc.
86% of LDs, 83% of Labour voters and 57% of Tories back Harris, 54% of Reform voters want Trump to win however
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50752-who-did-britons-want-to-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election
One wonders equally about the 26% of Reform supporters who want Harris to win! Interesting demographic.
I am not looking forward to William Glenn's and Sandpit's lap of honour. Although after Trump sells Ukraine down the river Sandpit might have second thoughts too.
- David Owen
- Ken Livingstone
- Alex Salmond
- Barbara Castle
- Bill Cash
But I would agree that he is the weakest of the six.
Perhaps Bogdanor wanted three on the political left to match the three on the political right.
Benn liked the sound of his own voice and if achievement is measured on how much electoral damage he bestowed on the Labour Party he goes to almost top of the list, if not he wasn't that important.
I would argue without Johnson's unfortunate and largely accidental intervention with the Brexit vote it wouldn't have happened, and Farage would be but a footnote in history. He was a fool emboldened by more egregious fools.
know, a convicted felon entering the White House, or someone who has said they will happily use the military against their own citizens running the country.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/drones-military-pentagon-defense-331871f4
Airey Neave
Dick Taverne
Owen is a bit... meh... because he's like Jenkins only with the number of achievements before the SDP.
And Livingstone was a nonentity as an MP.
While Barbara Castle, other than being (the first?) women cabinet minister, what's the case for her being particularly influential?
Will Donald Trump win the struggling swing state?
By Bruno Maçães"
https://www.newstatesman.com/us-election-2024/2024/10/letter-from-michigan-no-one-i-know-is-voting-kamala-harris
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Michigan#By_county
Trump voters only know Trump voters.
It's one of the most unhealthy things about US democracy right now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Bondfield
I'm not sure what Barbara Castle achieved either beyond being an earlier version of Shirley Williams.
Eat your heart out, Ed Davey.
They just seem.to have no clue.
https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m04c.pdf
Mrs Castle - In Place of Strife and Equal Pay Act.
There are some really left field ideas coming in thick and fast.
In some respects it's easier to suggest who definitely shouldn't be on the list. I still like the list @ydoethur compiled earlier. Who doesn't like a bit of Buttskellism?
Powell, a racist campaigning against commonwealth immigration, failed to "make the weather" even at his zenith.
Farage, a pound shop populist, whose legacy is a diminished UK economically and on the world stage, and he wouldn't have managed that without Johnson and Cummings.
Benn, Minister of Technology pushing UK technological development but it didn't last.
Joseph, monetarism and privatisation, one of the intellects behind Thatcherism, certainly made the weather
Jenkins, legacy of liberalisation as Home sec. Ok.
So,
Bevan definitely
Jenkins and Joseph arguably yes
Benn briefly but sadly legacy didn't last
Powell, thankfully no
Farage, in a massive festering turd that will take years to flush.
I guess you could argue that she wrote In Place of Strife. Stil...
Edit to add: Margaret Bondfield was an MP and Cabinet Minister. So I was wildly wrong.
Without Neave perhaps Heath holds off Thatcher in 1975.
Without Taverne perhaps there is no SDP.
The actions of 'little people' can affect the world of politics.
A more recent example would be those final two Labour MPs who allowed Corbyn to become a Labour leader candidate.
Onto the other question of the night. What about Hume and Trimble as a double header?
What a great debate this evening. It is of course only enabled because it is bedtime in Japan.
All 1966-1967.
Road deaths peaked at 8,000 in 1966.
By 1980 they were down to 6,000, and 5,000 by 1990.
Just between 1966 and 1980 that's about 14,000 people who weren't dead. That uses the assumption in would have stuck 8,000 a year; in fact the trend was sharply up at that stage.