This is my photo for the day, and it comes with a question.
Here is the photo, Donald Trump channelling Chucky. A pic from a recent video.
Here's the video, which also mentions a strategy called "Red Wave" from 2020, which apparently involved Republicans manipulating the poll averages by generating a large number of opinion polls in the run up to Election Day. Can anyone explain, and compare / contrast?
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
I'm sure it's possible to be a visionary entrepreneur (risk a substantial slice of your huge heap of winnings on a game of pitch and toss) and a political non-nutjob (don't take risks, because it's a country you are gambling with), but it ain't easy.
Mostly, when you take people out of their field of expertise, we're as dumb as each other.
See SKS.
True geniuses are often neurodivergent
Eg Einstein, and Newton. And Musk
They are prone to terrible social gaffes, have a “weird” sense of humour (at best) and very often fail to read the room
Still monumental geniuses, nonetheless
Churchill's line ("boffins should be on tap, not on top") is probably right. And I've got enough of the grubby T shirts to say that.
The trouble with people like Musk is that they don't want to just be on tap, and have some of the power to try to be on top.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Indeed, this is NOT 1997 in case leftwing PBers have not realised or even 2001.
Then Blair had double digit leads in post election polls in the former and comfortable leads after the latter election too, now Labour is already down to Brown 2010 levels and Starmer already polling worse than Badenoch and Jenrick on net approval ratings.
Blair was always comfortably ahead of Hague and IDS on net approval polling
The thing that augurs in favour of ditching though is the bar being very low for a challenge and quite a few MPs (roughly a third?) quite possibly being irreconcilables to Badenoch or Jenrick 2.0 if they're not obviously looking like winning. It wouldn't need IDS-style polling to start manoeuvres.
Interesting focus group accounts of Kemi and Jenrick. Worth a look.
I've a hunch Kemi could be seriously bad news for Sir Keir, if these people are anyway representative. And I'm not really sure how Farage would manage - he could easily look like last week's news compared to someone as assertive, colourful and new. Not sure the odd gaffe would make much difference - in fact may even help. Authenticity and personality count.
Watched a CPF hustings online with both candidates this afternoon and both performed well. Clear desire for more local candidates and ensuring CCHQ workers all party members.
Kemi seemed to perform well in that focus group too but polling tends to suggest Jenrick narrowly favoured overall but we will see
Interesting focus group accounts of Kemi and Jenrick. Worth a look.
I've a hunch Kemi could be seriously bad news for Sir Keir, if these people are anyway representative. And I'm not really sure how Farage would manage - he could easily look like last week's news compared to someone as assertive, colourful and new. Not sure the odd gaffe would make much difference - in fact may even help. Authenticity and personality count.
Watched a CPF hustings online with both candidates this afternoon and both performed well. Clear desire for more local candidates and ensuring CCHQ workers all party members.
Kemi seemed to perform well in that focus group too but polling tends to suggest Jenrick narrowly favoured overall but we will see
Interesting focus group accounts of Kemi and Jenrick. Worth a look.
I've a hunch Kemi could be seriously bad news for Sir Keir, if these people are anyway representative. And I'm not really sure how Farage would manage - he could easily look like last week's news compared to someone as assertive, colourful and new. Not sure the odd gaffe would make much difference - in fact may even help. Authenticity and personality count.
Watched a CPF hustings online with both candidates this afternoon and both performed well. Clear desire for more local candidates and ensuring CCHQ workers all party members.
Kemi seemed to perform well in that focus group too but polling tends to suggest Jenrick narrowly favoured overall but we will see
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
Also, cats have been around for millions of years. Why have they not yet learned to retract their claws before pulling their feet back? Every cat I've ever known does this, tugging ineffectually at whatever material it has got its claws into.
Presumably evolution means they keep their claws into whatever they’ve got hold of as they pull it to their mouth and teeth. Which in the case of my cat is usually my hand.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Indeed, this is NOT 1997 in case leftwing PBers have not realised or even 2001.
Then Blair had double digit leads in post election polls in the former and comfortable leads after the latter election too, now Labour is already down to Brown 2010 levels and Starmer already polling worse than Badenoch and Jenrick on net approval ratings.
Blair was always comfortably ahead of Hague and IDS on net approval polling
The thing that augurs in favour of ditching though is the bar being very low for a challenge and quite a few MPs (roughly a third?) quite possibly being irreconcilables to Badenoch or Jenrick 2.0 if they're not obviously looking like winning. It wouldn't need IDS-style polling to start manoeuvres.
Given 2/3 of Tory MPs voted for Jenrick or Badenoch there simply aren't the numbers for say a Cleverly coronation unless either massively behind which is extremely unlikely given how unpopular Starmer and his government now are
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
The Oakeshotts are an odd political dynasty. Isabel is the distant niece of Matthew Oakeshott, who is a Liberal/Green donor, and the sister of Veronica, a Labour councillor who stood as a Labour parliamentary candidate this year.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
Starmer’s explicit promise was to “clean up politics”
So far this means seizing £100,000 in dodgy freebies and now breaking firm manifesto pledges as soon as he can
Its…. not good
Thing is, did they not see this coming? They didn’t even have to make those pledges. But they did. So now they will look like terrible liars on top of everything
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
It assumes 'sins' can be passed down the generations. Why should I, or my son, be disadvantaged because of what someone - probably not even related - did 200 or more years ago?
In which case, Germany has in no way paid enough reparations for WW2. Or Japan, for that matter. And those are much more immediate and much more direct. And I expect Russia to fully pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine in any peace settlement.
I'd also point out that slavery is much more than 'white man's guilt'. Should the descendants of the Barbary pirates pay reparations to us and the other coastal European settlements they devastated? And should the money and expense Britain spent in finally abolishing slavery - e.g. the West Africa Squadron - be taken off our ledger?
And being cynical, I expect the money, if it is handed over, to be very poorly spent, and not help (relatively) many people.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
The public won't vote for either tax rises or spending cuts. The country needs at least one of tax rises or spending cuts. So politicians mislead, because there is no alternative.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Indeed, this is NOT 1997 in case leftwing PBers have not realised or even 2001.
Then Blair had double digit leads in post election polls in the former and comfortable leads after the latter election too, now Labour is already down to Brown 2010 levels and Starmer already polling worse than Badenoch and Jenrick on net approval ratings.
Blair was always comfortably ahead of Hague and IDS on net approval polling
The thing that augurs in favour of ditching though is the bar being very low for a challenge and quite a few MPs (roughly a third?) quite possibly being irreconcilables to Badenoch or Jenrick 2.0 if they're not obviously looking like winning. It wouldn't need IDS-style polling to start manoeuvres.
Given 2/3 of Tory MPs voted for Jenrick or Badenoch there simply aren't the numbers for say a Cleverly coronation unless either massively behind which is extremely unlikely given how unpopular Starmer and his government now are
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
The public won't vote for either tax rises or spending cuts. The country needs at least one of tax rises or spending cuts. So politicians mislead, because there is no alternative.
If you’re knowingly going to lie, at least make them subtle and clever lies
A lie which says “we will not raise National insurance” which is immediately followed by you raising National insurance is neither subtle nor clever
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Deltics are cr@p that should never have progressed past their first prototype.
H0 scale is more accurate than OO scale model trains
That's true. That's why Real Men - the Alpha Males - use EM.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
I find it really quite odd that free people can think in terms of reparations for their ancestors' enslavement. Anyone with consciousness of, or a conscience about, slavery should surely be keen instead to see available funds put into freeing those presently enslaved.
It is important to remember, on the other hand, that only an extreme, Neon-Nazi Imperialist would consider that National Insurance had anything to do with National Insurance.
My exponential moving average (EMA) of national polls shows Kamala 2% ahead of Trump. My EC model using 538 moving averages by state shows 268 -270 Kamala to Trump.
But I'm very wary of the polls and the betting. I suspect they are being manipulated.
Based on improving economy and stock market, propensity to vote, money, ground game, trend of Trump rhetoric, Kamala's net favourability versus Trump's - I reckon it is a landslide for Kamala and have bet accordingly.
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
That's not my mother's experience of needing cataract surgery on the NHS in England. Her optician has told her she needs the surgery but the NHS refuse to give her an appointment to see the consultant, so she can't get onto the waiting list.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Indeed, this is NOT 1997 in case leftwing PBers have not realised or even 2001.
Then Blair had double digit leads in post election polls in the former and comfortable leads after the latter election too, now Labour is already down to Brown 2010 levels and Starmer already polling worse than Badenoch and Jenrick on net approval ratings.
Blair was always comfortably ahead of Hague and IDS on net approval polling
The thing that augurs in favour of ditching though is the bar being very low for a challenge and quite a few MPs (roughly a third?) quite possibly being irreconcilables to Badenoch or Jenrick 2.0 if they're not obviously looking like winning. It wouldn't need IDS-style polling to start manoeuvres.
Given 2/3 of Tory MPs voted for Jenrick or Badenoch there simply aren't the numbers for say a Cleverly coronation unless either massively behind which is extremely unlikely given how unpopular Starmer and his government now are
Yeah. It wouldn't be a coronation - you'd imagine it'd be the right v moderate battle we were deprived of this time - with those who backed the last round loser this time finding a reason the incumbent was crap, and a Cleverly caucus around the idea that the party needs wholesale change.
I disagree on them needing to be miles behind. If they are behind pretty much at all, particularly if Reform look a serious prospect as a parliamentary party, there'll be soundings. And in a way understandably so, as they are in a fairly precarious position if Labour are unloved but "given another chance" given both Reform and the Lib Dems will be looking to eat a Tory Party that doesn't look like returning to government's lunch.
And on that front Labour and them bumping around the high to upper mid 20s probably isn't good enough, given that absent mass Reform gains (which would come at their expense to some extent) they are uncoalitionable.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
They’re not proposing this.
The problem is that David Lammy is on the record as saying he’s sympathetic to these claims.
Starmer has to decide whether he'd prefer Lammy to be inside the tent ******* out or vice versa.
My exponential moving average (EMA) of national polls shows Kamala 2% ahead of Trump. My EC model using 538 moving averages by state shows 268 -270 Kamala to Trump.
But I'm very wary of the polls and the betting. I suspect they are being manipulated.
Based on improving economy and stock market, propensity to vote, money, ground game, trend of Trump rhetoric, Kamala's net favourability versus Trump's - I reckon it is a landslide for Kamala and have bet accordingly.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
They’re not proposing this.
The problem is that David Lammy is on the record as saying he’s sympathetic to these claims.
Starmer has to decide whether he'd prefer Lammy to be inside the tent ******* out or vice versa.
Would this be a convenient moment to point out that Kemi's ancestors sold us the slaves in the first place.
My exponential moving average (EMA) of national polls shows Kamala 2% ahead of Trump. My EC model using 538 moving averages by state shows 268 -270 Kamala to Trump.
But I'm very wary of the polls and the betting. I suspect they are being manipulated.
Based on improving economy and stock market, propensity to vote, money, ground game, trend of Trump rhetoric, Kamala's net favourability versus Trump's - I reckon it is a landslide for Kamala and have bet accordingly.
There is no chance of a Harris landslide or even her matching Biden's popular vote and EC score in 2020.
If she wins it will be scraping home over the line in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Georgia or Michigan in what looks like the closest US presidential election in the EC since 2000
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
That's not my mother's experience of needing cataract surgery on the NHS in England. Her optician has told her she needs the surgery but the NHS refuse to give her an appointment to see the consultant, so she can't get onto the waiting list.
For specific treatments there is no "NHS England", there is a postcode lottery as to what is available and what waiting list applies in one's own local area.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
I find it really quite odd that free people can think in terms of reparations for their ancestors' enslavement. Anyone with consciousness of, or a conscience about, slavery should surely be keen instead to see available funds put into freeing those presently enslaved.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
The public won't vote for either tax rises or spending cuts. The country needs at least one of tax rises or spending cuts. So politicians mislead, because there is no alternative.
And, ultimately, that's the point.
A world where a party can go into an election saying "you're going to have to pay more tax" and not be utterly marmalised would undoubtedly be a better world than the one in which we live. But we don't.
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
That's not my mother's experience of needing cataract surgery on the NHS in England. Her optician has told her she needs the surgery but the NHS refuse to give her an appointment to see the consultant, so she can't get onto the waiting list.
I assume it depends on the technical details but certainly our optician was from Liverpool and that was his comments
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
The public won't vote for either tax rises or spending cuts. The country needs at least one of tax rises or spending cuts. So politicians mislead, because there is no alternative.
If you’re knowingly going to lie, at least make them subtle and clever lies
A lie which says “we will not raise National insurance” which is immediately followed by you raising National insurance is neither subtle nor clever
There were opinion polls during the campaign where voters indicated they thought taxes woud rise regardless of who won, despite both parties manifesto pledges. Anyone half sensible knew what was coming, and took promises with a massive dollop of salt.
My exponential moving average (EMA) of national polls shows Kamala 2% ahead of Trump. My EC model using 538 moving averages by state shows 268 -270 Kamala to Trump.
But I'm very wary of the polls and the betting. I suspect they are being manipulated.
Based on improving economy and stock market, propensity to vote, money, ground game, trend of Trump rhetoric, Kamala's net favourability versus Trump's - I reckon it is a landslide for Kamala and have bet accordingly.
There is no chance of a Harris landslide or even her matching Biden's popular vote and EC score in 2020.
If she wins it will be scraping home over the line in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Georgia or Michigan in what looks like the closest US presidential election in the EC since 2000
That's what the "data" shows but ...... Bookmark this and let's compare on 6th November.
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
That's not my mother's experience of needing cataract surgery on the NHS in England. Her optician has told her she needs the surgery but the NHS refuse to give her an appointment to see the consultant, so she can't get onto the waiting list.
For specific treatments there is no "NHS England", there is a postcode lottery as to what is available and what waiting list applies in one's own local area.
Mrs Flatlander's father was referred by his optician in September (for cataracts) and is being operated on in November (private clinic, paid for by the NHS).
The writer lives in the northern Gaza Strip. His name has been withheld;
Opinion | Israel Is Killing Us. But Hamas Is Exploiting Our Deaths
I wish for the release of the Israeli hostages to the same extent that I wish for my own liberation. I call on the world to relate to us just as it relates to them, as hostages, and save us from both the brutality of the Israeli occupation and from our Hamas kidnappers Anonymous Gaza Oct 14, 2024 1:22 pm IDT
GAZA – There is a great similarity between the residents of Gaza and the Israelis being held hostage by Hamas. Both are victims of failed leadership, having to contend with a fate they have not chosen.
The Israeli hostages found themselves in an instant underground, in a way reminiscent to the captivity residents of Gaza have experienced at the hands of Hamas for 18 years, during which they have been brainwashed with an ideology of ruin, leading us to destruction.
The similarity between the hostages on both sides is striking: the two leaders have no intention of rescuing the victims; using the hostages as an excuse for continuing warfare, sacrificing them for their own political considerations.
Hamas claims to be the representative of the Palestinian people, presenting the October 7 terror attack and the ensuing war as benefiting the nation. But Hamas does not represent us, and since 2010 its rule is illegitimate. It sees our blood as fuel for its political ambitions and as a means of imposing its rule over all Palestinian territories. Its insistence on clinging to power in Gaza is causing the deaths of an enormous number of Palestinians.
We, the residents of Gaza, understand the suffering of the Israeli hostages better than anyone else in the world. They, like us, have been deprived of the most basic of rights: to decide our fates. They are being held captive underground while we are hostages above ground, in the big prison of Gaza.
We suffer from the war like they do, paying the price for an insane and lethal adventure. The only difference between us is the size of the area we are held in and its location.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
The public won't vote for either tax rises or spending cuts. The country needs at least one of tax rises or spending cuts. So politicians mislead, because there is no alternative.
And, ultimately, that's the point.
A world where a party can go into an election saying "you're going to have to pay more tax" and not be utterly marmalised would undoubtedly be a better world than the one in which we live. But we don't.
Maybe Britain needs a forced choice referendum?
Cut Spending (on the NHS and the State Pension) vs Raise Taxes (on Everyone including You)
I wish for the release of the Israeli hostages to the same extent that I wish for my own liberation. I call on the world to relate to us just as it relates to them, as hostages, and save us from both the brutality of the Israeli occupation and from our Hamas kidnappers. This will only happen by exerting great pressure on our kidnappers and on Israel's government so that they stop colluding against Gaza, and finally let us decide our own fate.
Hamas is aware of this and has sacrificed Gaza in order to raise its popularity in the West Bank and overseas. Indeed, if elections were held now in all Palestinian territories, it would assume power again via a different entrance. I think that one of the undeclared reasons that motivated Hamas to carry out the October 7 attack was its wish to eliminate the Palestinian Authority and take over the Palestinian political apparatus.
Palestinian public opinion changed for the worse in regard to Hamas years ago. Gazans have been the group's hostages since 2006. They cannot express their opinions safely and freely, and they don't vote in elections. I am in my 30s and I've never voted. Despite this, some people insolently claim that Hamas is the people's choice. Is it really?
Due to eased Israeli restrictions before October 7, the number of people seeking work in Israel exceeded 100,000. This fact embarrassed Hamas, which had always opposed normalization with Israel. This may have accelerated the decision to attack on October 7 in order to disrupt the eased restrictions, which undermined Hamas' legitimacy.
Hamas earned its political capital through crises and isolation, which engender hatred and violence. Hamas was the first organization to send suicide bombers to blow themselves up at civilian border crossings at the beginning of the intifada. As a result, border crossings were closed to laborers and to Palestinians seeking medical treatment in Israel.
One year after the calamity of October 7, we are approaching a gigantic war led by fanatics on the extreme right. I am convinced that Hamas, the Iranian axis and the right-wing religious Zionists are two sides of the same coin. They feed on destruction and serve each other's interests. They do not hesitate to trample their people in order to justify their slogans.
Most wars that aim to eliminate the opposing side fail, leading only to destruction and ruin. The strategy of most successful wars is to gain an advantage during final negotiations. Israel's continuing clinging to a sterile strategy of occupation, a particularly bad one for a country situated in the midst of a hostile environment, attests to the fact that its destroyers will come from within.
Israel must finally realize that the Palestinian nation deserve a better life, and that it must be granted its full rights through an agreement that ensures the rights of both peoples to live in peace and security. The Jewish people have paid the highest price throughout their history due to oppression and evil, and they must understand that following in the steps of oppressive regimes that committed mass murder in the last century will not achieve security and stability for Israel.
Ouch. That looks like a massive blunder. A “deplorables” moment
It’s not quite that bad, but she’s talking to the woke activist 3%, rather than the 97% for whom today is a celebration of how they came to be where they are today, born of parents living the Dream.
Is it ? You still haven't really explained why the US celebrates the Spanish/Portugese conquest of South America.
It’s a good example of the risk asymmetry in this election. Harris must carry a Ming Vase. Anything she says that implies anything less than heartfelt love for all voters is catastrophic. Trump and his VP on the other hand can throw out insults left right and centre including to most minority groups, the entire female sex and anyone owning a cat and its water off a duck’s back.
Nonetheless, she has said a stupid Woke and insulting thing to all white Americans of European descent, on Columbus Day
This isn’t a sensible comment being skewed. She said a very dumb and insolent thing
There’s an interesting sort of symmetry with Trump’s polemic. Both narratives contrast a idealised status quo ante with the dangerous incomer, spreading disease and violence and undermining the native culture. The main difference is where and when they set the story. 1492 or 2024.
I didn't hear anything in that clip about an idealised status quo ante. It's simply history that European colonisation wiped out somewhere between 80 and 90% of the indigenous population, largely through disease. A pretty big wave. That was certainly unfortunate, even if you think 'shameful' a tad hyperbolic.
I think the problem is characterising the whole discovery and settlement of America as “shameful”.
The catastrophic loss of the indigenous population is certainly a vital part of the story, but it’s not the whole story.
There must be few countries on earth without a history of one dominant culture supplanting another in a fairly uncompromising way. In most cases they will have replaced a dominant culture which itself replaced a previous culture, and so on backwards. The USA is hardly unique in this.
Most of the examples you allude to, appear to have been gradual process, with assimilation & accomodation (both ways) being more common, than extermination and genocide.
One notable exception - within the British Empire - being Tasmania:
Battle of Hastings? Frankish invasion of Gaul? Battle of Alesia? To name just three examples close to home.
They were just a new elite taking over. Little genocide took place (obviously I wouldn't say none). The Anglo-Saxon invasion was similar.
Late to the discussion, but everything that she said was accurate.
Recognising the sins of the past is not the same as being ashamed of today’s country. You can be a British patriot, for example, and be mildly disturbed by some of the actions of the East India Company, for example
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
I find it really quite odd that free people can think in terms of reparations for their ancestors' enslavement. Anyone with consciousness of, or a conscience about, slavery should surely be keen instead to see available funds put into freeing those presently enslaved.
I think we should invest the money in a joint enterprise with the Libyan Coastguard to import their er… guests. Through the port of Bristol.
Who can then harvest cotton in the fields of England. And wipe the bums of the elderly.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
I find it really quite odd that free people can think in terms of reparations for their ancestors' enslavement. Anyone with consciousness of, or a conscience about, slavery should surely be keen instead to see available funds put into freeing those presently enslaved.
Because it’s all about the grift.
More domestic politics I think. In every country there's always capital in saying everything would be great if only those beastly foreigners would cough up/play ball. In this case it makes sense for any Caribbean leader to say "I'm fighting for this '£Xbn' we're 'owed'" for what was an admittedly historic injustice.
Problem is of course that you are opening an entire can of worms in seeing reparations as a method of righting past wrongs rather than what it has been in the past, a settlement usually imposed by victors on the losers in a war to recoup some of their costs and ensure the losers can't do it again in a hurry.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
It's not my sentence, I'm just quoting the tweet. But I think there is some merit in the view that the state of the economy in 2028/29 will be the important thing.
The relevant sentence in Labour's manifestion is:
"Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
I am sure Labour will say they are not increasing the NI rate for working people; others will disagree.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
I find it really quite odd that free people can think in terms of reparations for their ancestors' enslavement. Anyone with consciousness of, or a conscience about, slavery should surely be keen instead to see available funds put into freeing those presently enslaved.
I think we should invest the money in a joint enterprise with the Libyan Coastguard to import their er… guests. Through the port of Bristol.
Who can then harvest cotton in the fields of England. And wipe the bums of the elderly.
Ouch. That looks like a massive blunder. A “deplorables” moment
It’s not quite that bad, but she’s talking to the woke activist 3%, rather than the 97% for whom today is a celebration of how they came to be where they are today, born of parents living the Dream.
Is it ? You still haven't really explained why the US celebrates the Spanish/Portugese conquest of South America.
It’s a good example of the risk asymmetry in this election. Harris must carry a Ming Vase. Anything she says that implies anything less than heartfelt love for all voters is catastrophic. Trump and his VP on the other hand can throw out insults left right and centre including to most minority groups, the entire female sex and anyone owning a cat and its water off a duck’s back.
Nonetheless, she has said a stupid Woke and insulting thing to all white Americans of European descent, on Columbus Day
This isn’t a sensible comment being skewed. She said a very dumb and insolent thing
There’s an interesting sort of symmetry with Trump’s polemic. Both narratives contrast a idealised status quo ante with the dangerous incomer, spreading disease and violence and undermining the native culture. The main difference is where and when they set the story. 1492 or 2024.
I didn't hear anything in that clip about an idealised status quo ante. It's simply history that European colonisation wiped out somewhere between 80 and 90% of the indigenous population, largely through disease. A pretty big wave. That was certainly unfortunate, even if you think 'shameful' a tad hyperbolic.
I think the problem is characterising the whole discovery and settlement of America as “shameful”.
The catastrophic loss of the indigenous population is certainly a vital part of the story, but it’s not the whole story.
There must be few countries on earth without a history of one dominant culture supplanting another in a fairly uncompromising way. In most cases they will have replaced a dominant culture which itself replaced a previous culture, and so on backwards. The USA is hardly unique in this.
Most of the examples you allude to, appear to have been gradual process, with assimilation & accomodation (both ways) being more common, than extermination and genocide.
One notable exception - within the British Empire - being Tasmania:
Ever since Jeremy Hunt lowered NI contributions just before the election whoever was in power after it was almost inevitably going to raise them again to make the books add up. Jeremy Hunt wasn't expecting it be him, which is why he did it.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
It's not my sentence, I'm just quoting the tweet. But I think there is some merit in the view that the state of the economy in 2028/29 will be the important thing.
The relevant sentence in Labour's manifestion is:
"Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
I am sure Labour will say they are not increasing the NI rate for working people; others will disagree.
I think they'll believe it. Because they are congenitally incapable of thinking through the consequences of any economic lever being pulled beyond "they'll suck it up and the exchequer will have more money."
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
That's not my mother's experience of needing cataract surgery on the NHS in England. Her optician has told her she needs the surgery but the NHS refuse to give her an appointment to see the consultant, so she can't get onto the waiting list.
For specific treatments there is no "NHS England", there is a postcode lottery as to what is available and what waiting list applies in one's own local area.
Mrs Flatlander's father was referred by his optician in September (for cataracts) and is being operated on in November (private clinic, paid for by the NHS).
Definitely a postcode lottery.
[I don't think any consultants were involved]
A friend of mine was referred by his optician on a Thursday and had his operation 5 days later on the Tuesday, taking a cancellation appointment.
Ouch. That looks like a massive blunder. A “deplorables” moment
It’s not quite that bad, but she’s talking to the woke activist 3%, rather than the 97% for whom today is a celebration of how they came to be where they are today, born of parents living the Dream.
Is it ? You still haven't really explained why the US celebrates the Spanish/Portugese conquest of South America.
It’s a good example of the risk asymmetry in this election. Harris must carry a Ming Vase. Anything she says that implies anything less than heartfelt love for all voters is catastrophic. Trump and his VP on the other hand can throw out insults left right and centre including to most minority groups, the entire female sex and anyone owning a cat and its water off a duck’s back.
Nonetheless, she has said a stupid Woke and insulting thing to all white Americans of European descent, on Columbus Day
This isn’t a sensible comment being skewed. She said a very dumb and insolent thing
There’s an interesting sort of symmetry with Trump’s polemic. Both narratives contrast a idealised status quo ante with the dangerous incomer, spreading disease and violence and undermining the native culture. The main difference is where and when they set the story. 1492 or 2024.
I didn't hear anything in that clip about an idealised status quo ante. It's simply history that European colonisation wiped out somewhere between 80 and 90% of the indigenous population, largely through disease. A pretty big wave. That was certainly unfortunate, even if you think 'shameful' a tad hyperbolic.
I think the problem is characterising the whole discovery and settlement of America as “shameful”.
The catastrophic loss of the indigenous population is certainly a vital part of the story, but it’s not the whole story.
There must be few countries on earth without a history of one dominant culture supplanting another in a fairly uncompromising way. In most cases they will have replaced a dominant culture which itself replaced a previous culture, and so on backwards. The USA is hardly unique in this.
Most of the examples you allude to, appear to have been gradual process, with assimilation & accomodation (both ways) being more common, than extermination and genocide.
One notable exception - within the British Empire - being Tasmania:
Battle of Hastings? Frankish invasion of Gaul? Battle of Alesia? To name just three examples close to home.
They were just a new elite taking over. Little genocide took place (obviously I wouldn't say none). The Anglo-Saxon invasion was similar.
Late to the discussion, but everything that she said was accurate.
Recognising the sins of the past is not the same as being ashamed of today’s country. You can be a British patriot, for example, and be mildly disturbed by some of the actions of the East India Company, for example
That these remarks are in any way controversial shows a country that is not in a healthy place.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Packet Rice ?
Really. Must be before my time. I
Bizarre.
It was a year or two back, so I don't think before your time. Only lasted a day, but genuinely did last a whole day and got quite intense. Paralells with Brexit were brought out. Anf I think the word "midwit" was used.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
It's not my sentence, I'm just quoting the tweet. But I think there is some merit in the view that the state of the economy in 2028/29 will be the important thing.
The relevant sentence in Labour's manifestion is:
"Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
I am sure Labour will say they are not increasing the NI rate for working people; others will disagree.
I suppose all taxation is a tax on working people, directly or indirectly. It depends on how far you want to stretch the definition.
And technically they stated that they wouldn't increase National Insurance, rather than contributions, so if they net it off against a decrease in employee contributions then they maintain their commitment. Indeed, it might be part of a long term trend to abolish NICs on the payslip entirely. About 2/3rd of NICs are employer, so it's by far the biggest chunk.
A broader question is why do we tax employment at all in this way? Why not transfer it all to income tax, including pensions, investments...land, property, wealth? (thought experiment rather than an actual suggestion).
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
It's not my sentence, I'm just quoting the tweet. But I think there is some merit in the view that the state of the economy in 2028/29 will be the important thing.
The relevant sentence in Labour's manifestion is:
"Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
I am sure Labour will say they are not increasing the NI rate for working people; others will disagree.
I think they'll believe it. Because they are congenitally incapable of thinking through the consequences of any economic lever being pulled beyond "they'll suck it up and the exchequer will have more money."
Yes, well, I'm a firm believer in the idea that we should aim for similar overall levels of taxation other developed western European countries apply, and have similarly good levels of public services. So it's all fine by me.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
It's not my sentence, I'm just quoting the tweet. But I think there is some merit in the view that the state of the economy in 2028/29 will be the important thing.
The relevant sentence in Labour's manifestion is:
"Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
I am sure Labour will say they are not increasing the NI rate for working people; others will disagree.
I think they'll believe it. Because they are congenitally incapable of thinking through the consequences of any economic lever being pulled beyond "they'll suck it up and the exchequer will have more money."
And when employers put in pay freezes and the economy stalls because no one has seen any pay growth for a few years while companies recoup their losses people won't be able to put two and two together either. Employers NI rises are the worst kind of stealth tax, it's a tax on jobs and wage growth but voters blame it on companies rather than the government.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
The Oakeshotts are an odd political dynasty. Isabel is the distant niece of Matthew Oakeshott, who is a Liberal/Green donor, and the sister of Veronica, a Labour councillor who stood as a Labour parliamentary candidate this year.
A strange family to my eye and one of the strangest was Michael Oakeshott, a mid-century Fabian - where there were all kinds of peculiar ideas: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Oakeshott
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
That's just simple economic incentives though. The big tech platforms are largely built and generally speaking innovate from within. Even the start-up app sector has cooled significantly as if there's a good idea, it's probably being done by someone with much more money than you.
Now, social and online media desperately needs an endless stream of content to keep people on their platforms - so people now get hugely rewarded for something that requires less technical skill but is in high demand. Of course it makes sense to be a streamer.
As an aside too, no skill maybe threatened by AI more than coding. As we move to an increasingly AI world soft skills like those inherent in communications may become more valuable than certain hard ones. Companies pay 'influencers' vast sums for a reason. Soul destroying nonsense of course. But simple economics.
The IFS are independent and will be very much on the TV at the Autumn Statement
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
It's not my sentence, I'm just quoting the tweet. But I think there is some merit in the view that the state of the economy in 2028/29 will be the important thing.
The relevant sentence in Labour's manifestion is:
"Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
I am sure Labour will say they are not increasing the NI rate for working people; others will disagree.
I suppose all taxation is a tax on working people, directly or indirectly. It depends on how far you want to stretch the definition.
And technically they stated that they wouldn't increase National Insurance, rather than contributions, so if they net it off against a decrease in employee contributions then they maintain their commitment. Indeed, it might be part of a long term trend to abolish NICs on the payslip entirely. About 2/3rd of NICs are employer, so it's by far the biggest chunk.
A broader question is why do we tax employment at all in this way? Why not transfer it all to income tax, including pensions, investments...land, property, wealth? (thought experiment rather than an actual suggestion).
Surely it's not all in income tax because a previous generation or six of politicians wanted to increase tax on income without increasing Income Tax.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
That's just simple economic incentives though. The big tech platforms are largely built and generally speaking innovate from within. Even the start-up app sector has cooled significantly as if there's a good idea, it's probably being done by someone with much more money than you.
Now, social and online media desperately needs an endless stream of content to keep people on their platforms - so people now get hugely rewarded for something that requires less technical skill but is in high demand. Of course it makes sense to be a streamer.
As an aside too, no skill maybe threatened by AI more than coding. As we move to an increasingly AI world soft skills like those inherent in communications may become more valuable than certain hard ones. Companies pay 'influencers' vast sums for a reason. Soul destroying nonsense of course. But simple economics.
Those number could well result in each of the Senate, the House and the Presidency flipping.
According to ChatGPT (usual caveats apply), there has never been a situation where the Presidency has flipped in one direction, and the House of Representatives in the other.
According to ChatGPT (usual caveats apply), there has never been a situation where the Presidency has flipped in one direction, and the House of Representatives in the other.
Jus5 reminds me of Gordon Brown abolishing Boom and Bust, which later became Tory Boom and Bust…
I know that no one really expects manifestos to be worth the paper they are printed on, but they can be expected to be slaughtered for this lie for a long time. It’s pretty clear that they said they wouldn’t raise NI and intend to do so.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
Did you watch the video, I don't think you did.
We could do the same in any country, at any time in history. Ask enough people a question, and you will get people giving stoopid or funny answers. Particularly if you encourage them to gave an answer other than "Don't know."
Unless you are saying that those responses are the only ones that the interviewer got?
That is a typical clickbait video. They want the hits, so they edit the funniest answers, or even encourage people to give funny or wrong answer.
You described Gen Z as being 'pretty much morons' based on that video. I'd strongly argue that that makes you the moron, not them.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
That's just simple economic incentives though. The big tech platforms are largely built and generally speaking innovate from within. Even the start-up app sector has cooled significantly as if there's a good idea, it's probably being done by someone with much more money than you.
Now, social and online media desperately needs an endless stream of content to keep people on their platforms - so people now get hugely rewarded for something that requires less technical skill but is in high demand. Of course it makes sense to be a streamer.
As an aside too, no skill maybe threatened by AI more than coding. As we move to an increasingly AI world soft skills like those inherent in communications may become more valuable than certain hard ones. Companies pay 'influencers' vast sums for a reason. Soul destroying nonsense of course. But simple economics.
I've watched a few of her videos now - and her take on the AI (especially coding) stuff is dreadfully biased and... well, bad. Which taints the rest of the content on her channel for me as I think "Well, if it's this bad about things I know about - am I just being conned on the other hot takes?".
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
Did you watch the video, I don't think you did.
We could do the same in any country, at any time in history. Ask enough people a question, and you will get people giving stoopid or funny answers. Particularly if you encourage them to gave an answer other than "Don't know."
Unless you are saying that those responses are the only ones that the interviewer got?
That is a typical clickbait video. They want the hits, so they edit the funniest answers, or even encourage people to give funny or wrong answer.
You described Gen Z as being 'pretty much morons' based on that video. I'd strongly argue that that makes you the moron, not them.
It's not based solely on that video. Gen Z are absolutely dumber than the generations that preceded them. We've just masked that by making exams easier so the grades look better. I showed my younger cousin who's at uni my old maths mock exams because I was clearing out my old room at my parents house and she could do about 5 or 6 questions, good enough for a fail she got the equivalent of an A at GCSE maths last summer. That's not me saying she's stupid, she isn't, it's just that the education system has stopped teaching kids anything and gen X parents seemingly don't give any fucks about education.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Indeed, this is NOT 1997 in case leftwing PBers have not realised or even 2001.
Then Blair had double digit leads in post election polls in the former and comfortable leads after the latter election too, now Labour is already down to Brown 2010 levels and Starmer already polling worse than Badenoch and Jenrick on net approval ratings.
Blair was always comfortably ahead of Hague and IDS on net approval polling
The thing that augurs in favour of ditching though is the bar being very low for a challenge and quite a few MPs (roughly a third?) quite possibly being irreconcilables to Badenoch or Jenrick 2.0 if they're not obviously looking like winning. It wouldn't need IDS-style polling to start manoeuvres.
Given 2/3 of Tory MPs voted for Jenrick or Badenoch there simply aren't the numbers for say a Cleverly coronation unless either massively behind which is extremely unlikely given how unpopular Starmer and his government now are
Yeah. It wouldn't be a coronation - you'd imagine it'd be the right v moderate battle we were deprived of this time - with those who backed the last round loser this time finding a reason the incumbent was crap, and a Cleverly caucus around the idea that the party needs wholesale change.
I disagree on them needing to be miles behind. If they are behind pretty much at all, particularly if Reform look a serious prospect as a parliamentary party, there'll be soundings. And in a way understandably so, as they are in a fairly precarious position if Labour are unloved but "given another chance" given both Reform and the Lib Dems will be looking to eat a Tory Party that doesn't look like returning to government's lunch.
And on that front Labour and them bumping around the high to upper mid 20s probably isn't good enough, given that absent mass Reform gains (which would come at their expense to some extent) they are uncoalitionable.
At the moment it is Reform eating heavily into the Labour vote on current polls, the Tories and LDs virtually unchanged since the general election.
Jenrick and Badenoch far more likely to agree a coalition government with Farage than Cleverly could
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
That's just simple economic incentives though. The big tech platforms are largely built and generally speaking innovate from within. Even the start-up app sector has cooled significantly as if there's a good idea, it's probably being done by someone with much more money than you.
Now, social and online media desperately needs an endless stream of content to keep people on their platforms - so people now get hugely rewarded for something that requires less technical skill but is in high demand. Of course it makes sense to be a streamer.
As an aside too, no skill maybe threatened by AI more than coding. As we move to an increasingly AI world soft skills like those inherent in communications may become more valuable than certain hard ones. Companies pay 'influencers' vast sums for a reason. Soul destroying nonsense of course. But simple economics.
I've watched a few of her videos now - and her take on the AI (especially coding) stuff is dreadfully biased and... well, bad. Which taints the rest of the content on her channel for me as I think "Well, if it's this bad about things I know about - am I just being conned on the other hot takes?".
I guess a touch of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect.
Why is it biased? What she says on that video is based on a couple of studies highlighted within, and seems reasonable. True, it's bearish, but it matches my limited experiences with using the tech for (play) coding.
My exponential moving average (EMA) of national polls shows Kamala 2% ahead of Trump. My EC model using 538 moving averages by state shows 268 -270 Kamala to Trump.
But I'm very wary of the polls and the betting. I suspect they are being manipulated.
Based on improving economy and stock market, propensity to vote, money, ground game, trend of Trump rhetoric, Kamala's net favourability versus Trump's - I reckon it is a landslide for Kamala and have bet accordingly.
There is no chance of a Harris landslide or even her matching Biden's popular vote and EC score in 2020.
If she wins it will be scraping home over the line in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Georgia or Michigan in what looks like the closest US presidential election in the EC since 2000
My gut is that the polls are wrong, and that the winner will be clear.
Simply, polling will be out by 2-3%, and that means there will be a relatively clear victory for one candidate or another. Which one, I could tell you. But if you held a gun to my head, I think it is more likely that Trump wins.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
I asked my Dad about the Sixties some years back.
He answered that it was a very depressing time and everyone was talking of emigrating. (So not much change then!).
When you look at the stats on how many Brits did emigrate in the Sixties, I think this may well be more accurate than most on the decade.
Never in the history of the Democratic-Republican duopoly dating back to the last election prior to the Civil War have both the House and Senate flipped in opposite directions. Typically the tides that pull once chamber pull both. But in recent years a new geographical concentration of the parties has given Republicans a big Senate advantage in some cycles that resists national trends.
A double-flip of House and Senate would ensure continued divided control of the federal government and, given the currently extreme polarization of the parties, very likely additional gridlock. There’s a chance of something even more remarkable happening in November, however: a triple flip of House, Senate and the White House, leaving no stone unturned. That has actually happened once in American history: in 1952, when the New Deal era emphatically ended with Dwight D. Eisenhower breaking a 20-year Democratic winning streak in presidential elections, while Republicans also flipped both chambers of Congress (which Democrats had narrowly maintained control of in 1950 despite losing a lot of seats).
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
Did you watch the video, I don't think you did.
We could do the same in any country, at any time in history. Ask enough people a question, and you will get people giving stoopid or funny answers. Particularly if you encourage them to gave an answer other than "Don't know."
Unless you are saying that those responses are the only ones that the interviewer got?
That is a typical clickbait video. They want the hits, so they edit the funniest answers, or even encourage people to give funny or wrong answer.
You described Gen Z as being 'pretty much morons' based on that video. I'd strongly argue that that makes you the moron, not them.
It's not based solely on that video. Gen Z are absolutely dumber than the generations that preceded them. We've just masked that by making exams easier so the grades look better. I showed my younger cousin who's at uni my old maths mock exams because I was clearing out my old room at my parents house and she could do about 5 or 6 questions, good enough for a fail she got the equivalent of an A at GCSE maths last summer. That's not me saying she's stupid, she isn't, it's just that the education system has stopped teaching kids anything and gen X parents seemingly don't give any fucks about education.
Ummm, I'm not sure that's true.
There are decent long-term standardized tests of educational achievement - such as the PISA rankings (international) and the NAEP in the US.
There was a dip in younger kids performance in the immediate aftermath of Covid (reflecting young kids not being in school), but generally the trends have been pretty flattish.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
We had our eldest in 1966 and recognise your father's comments
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
Did you watch the video, I don't think you did.
We could do the same in any country, at any time in history. Ask enough people a question, and you will get people giving stoopid or funny answers. Particularly if you encourage them to gave an answer other than "Don't know."
Unless you are saying that those responses are the only ones that the interviewer got?
That is a typical clickbait video. They want the hits, so they edit the funniest answers, or even encourage people to give funny or wrong answer.
You described Gen Z as being 'pretty much morons' based on that video. I'd strongly argue that that makes you the moron, not them.
It's not based solely on that video. Gen Z are absolutely dumber than the generations that preceded them. We've just masked that by making exams easier so the grades look better. I showed my younger cousin who's at uni my old maths mock exams because I was clearing out my old room at my parents house and she could do about 5 or 6 questions, good enough for a fail she got the equivalent of an A at GCSE maths last summer. That's not me saying she's stupid, she isn't, it's just that the education system has stopped teaching kids anything and gen X parents seemingly don't give any fucks about education.
Ah, okay. You are using a clickbait video to back up your own implicit biases.
As for exam papers: syllabuses change, sometimes rapidly. Here's a question I don't know the answer to: assuming you are (say) 46, so you did GCSEs 30 years ago. Could you go back and do the GCSE equivalent paper from 1964 without preparation and get a good score?
Because I've been helping my son with his maths, I've been looking at recent GCSE papers. I got an A in maths at GCSE in 1989 (the second year they were held...). There's no way I'd get an A at a recent paper without preparation, because the areas of maths covered, the format of the questions, and other things have changed. And, to be fair, I'm more than a little rusty.
With preparation; sure, I should do well. But just showing a kid a paper they've not covered the syllabus of is a little unfair.
There's a fair view YouTube videos of university mathematicians trying to do historic and modern maths papers. They don't always get them right, or find them surprisingly hard.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
That's just simple economic incentives though. The big tech platforms are largely built and generally speaking innovate from within. Even the start-up app sector has cooled significantly as if there's a good idea, it's probably being done by someone with much more money than you.
Now, social and online media desperately needs an endless stream of content to keep people on their platforms - so people now get hugely rewarded for something that requires less technical skill but is in high demand. Of course it makes sense to be a streamer.
As an aside too, no skill maybe threatened by AI more than coding. As we move to an increasingly AI world soft skills like those inherent in communications may become more valuable than certain hard ones. Companies pay 'influencers' vast sums for a reason. Soul destroying nonsense of course. But simple economics.
My friend Giles - who is the best coder I've ever met, and has been on the Python* steering committee in the past - uses it all the time, and regards it as a massive force mutliplier.
Simply: when you're coding there is a massive amount of boiler plate, there are functional and unit tests to write, and LLMs can do that stuff with ease.
They're also amazing at enabling you to find (and correctly use) the right libraries.
Now, are they likely to come up with a novel solution to an entirely new problem? No. (But then again, how much of a programmer's work is that?)
SpaceX requested on Friday that the FCC make “several small but meaningful updates” to its 2nd-generation @Starlink network.
“Together, this modification and its companion amendment will enable the Gen2 system to deliver gigabit-speed, truly low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity to all Americans and the billions of people globally who still lack access to adequate broadband.”
The request includes lowering the altitude of three Starlink satellite shells by 45 and 60 km.
SpaceX also wants the Starlink satellites to harness the E-band radio frequencies to help better deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband to users, including through fixed satellite dishes and mobile equipment.
“The upgraded Gen2 system will feature enhanced hardware that can use higher gain and more advanced beamforming and digital processing technologies and provide more targeted and robust coverage for American consumers – These upgraded satellites can maximize the use of the available bandwidth, enabling more efficient allocation of resources and facilitating a broader range of services.”
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
I asked my Dad about the Sixties some years back.
He answered that it was a very depressing time and everyone was talking of emigrating. (So not much change then!).
When you look at the stats on how many Brits did emigrate in the Sixties, I think this may well be more accurate than most on the decade.
It wasn't for my wife and I
Got married in 1964
Moved to North Wales in 1965 to start a business
Had our first born in 1966
Lots of engagement in sport and the local community
Worked hard and above all else did not have 24/7 social media
They were happy days followed by our daughter in 1971 and our youngest in 1975
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
Did you watch the video, I don't think you did.
We could do the same in any country, at any time in history. Ask enough people a question, and you will get people giving stoopid or funny answers. Particularly if you encourage them to gave an answer other than "Don't know."
Unless you are saying that those responses are the only ones that the interviewer got?
That is a typical clickbait video. They want the hits, so they edit the funniest answers, or even encourage people to give funny or wrong answer.
You described Gen Z as being 'pretty much morons' based on that video. I'd strongly argue that that makes you the moron, not them.
It's not based solely on that video. Gen Z are absolutely dumber than the generations that preceded them. We've just masked that by making exams easier so the grades look better. I showed my younger cousin who's at uni my old maths mock exams because I was clearing out my old room at my parents house and she could do about 5 or 6 questions, good enough for a fail she got the equivalent of an A at GCSE maths last summer. That's not me saying she's stupid, she isn't, it's just that the education system has stopped teaching kids anything and gen X parents seemingly don't give any fucks about education.
Ummm, I'm not sure that's true.
There are decent long-term standardized tests of educational achievement - such as the PISA rankings (international) and the NAEP in the US.
There was a dip in younger kids performance in the immediate aftermath of Covid (reflecting young kids not being in school), but generally the trends have been pretty flattish.
Every generation kids itself that the generation below is dumber, usually without stopping to think what that says about the generation that has been raising them.
It's part of how we generate the Principal Skinner "no, it's the children that are wrong" force field to protect our beliefs.
That's before we get onto the properly old, who would love to cede power, but they can't because the two generations below them just aren't up to it...
But overall, every generation is the same mix of superheroes, supervillans and nitwits that it always has been.
So there’s certainly scope to rise. Maybe we should compromise and cap it at the Dutch rate.
Top tip: if you want to improve your country's productivity, all you need to do is have really high levels of employers' social security. I mean, it will mean that the low skilled won't ever be in the workforce, but it's *really* good for your productivity statistics.
Incidentally for fans of the Swinging Sixties, The Prisoner is being re-run on Rewind TV, on now. I have become a bit of a fan and can see why it has such a cult following.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
I reckon the WW2 generation said the same about the kids in the sixties. And the WW1 generation probably said it about the generation that fought in WW2. The streamers and such are just the visible tip of the iceberg; most just get on with things, unseen.
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
Did you watch the video, I don't think you did.
We could do the same in any country, at any time in history. Ask enough people a question, and you will get people giving stoopid or funny answers. Particularly if you encourage them to gave an answer other than "Don't know."
Unless you are saying that those responses are the only ones that the interviewer got?
That is a typical clickbait video. They want the hits, so they edit the funniest answers, or even encourage people to give funny or wrong answer.
You described Gen Z as being 'pretty much morons' based on that video. I'd strongly argue that that makes you the moron, not them.
It's not based solely on that video. Gen Z are absolutely dumber than the generations that preceded them. We've just masked that by making exams easier so the grades look better. I showed my younger cousin who's at uni my old maths mock exams because I was clearing out my old room at my parents house and she could do about 5 or 6 questions, good enough for a fail she got the equivalent of an A at GCSE maths last summer. That's not me saying she's stupid, she isn't, it's just that the education system has stopped teaching kids anything and gen X parents seemingly don't give any fucks about education.
Ummm, I'm not sure that's true.
There are decent long-term standardized tests of educational achievement - such as the PISA rankings (international) and the NAEP in the US.
There was a dip in younger kids performance in the immediate aftermath of Covid (reflecting young kids not being in school), but generally the trends have been pretty flattish.
This is one of those situations where I trust my senses rather than any official data. Just as I did in the aftermath of COVID when the official statistics said the economy was substantially smaller and hadn't recovered but anyone who stepped outside knew instantly that the economy was doing very well indeed and later the statistics were restated to reflect that and the UK economy went from worst post COVID performance to second best or something like that. Education measurement, standardised or now, just seems to be lacking. I actually think there's a case to be made that at the top there's not an issue and smart/bright kids still achieve well, if not better than ever, but the middle ground seems to have been completely sacrificed and kids are significantly less smart than previous generations.
I see it at work, I closed our graduate/no experience scheme in data and product because the quality of candidates is truly awful. Schools and universities are producing middle range kids who don't have the skills or inquisitiveness for the real world. Everything needs to be spoon fed and they get very upset when they're asked to learn things for themselves using Google, stack overflow or even chatgpt. I've also paused mid level hiring as well and we're now only hiring for senior roles which puts an effective age bar of over 28, it's sad because I want to give people opportunities but we don't have the time or resource to undo 7-10 years of terrible education and low expectations from teachers and parents.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
That's just simple economic incentives though. The big tech platforms are largely built and generally speaking innovate from within. Even the start-up app sector has cooled significantly as if there's a good idea, it's probably being done by someone with much more money than you.
Now, social and online media desperately needs an endless stream of content to keep people on their platforms - so people now get hugely rewarded for something that requires less technical skill but is in high demand. Of course it makes sense to be a streamer.
As an aside too, no skill maybe threatened by AI more than coding. As we move to an increasingly AI world soft skills like those inherent in communications may become more valuable than certain hard ones. Companies pay 'influencers' vast sums for a reason. Soul destroying nonsense of course. But simple economics.
My friend Giles - who is the best coder I've ever met, and has been on the Python* steering committee in the past - uses it all the time, and regards it as a massive force mutliplier.
Simply: when you're coding there is a massive amount of boiler plate, there are functional and unit tests to write, and LLMs can do that stuff with ease.
They're also amazing at enabling you to find (and correctly use) the right libraries.
Now, are they likely to come up with a novel solution to an entirely new problem? No. (But then again, how much of a programmer's work is that?)
Are they revolutionising coding? Absolutely.
* yeah, yeah, it's a real language, deal with it
I've certainly found it a huge boon for the boilerplate stuff and writing set-up for tests. Have a test like 'we can sort and filter a table by surname'. Type out the first set-up user with a surname of 'aaaaaa', press return and it spits out a 2nd user with 'bbbb', then a 3rd with 'cccccc'. Then it gets the idea and will fill in a lot of 'if I type "aaa" into the filter then..." stuff. Huge pita saver.
Comments
The trouble with people like Musk is that they don't want to just be on tap, and have some of the power to try to be on top.
This tends not to end well.
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1845769331444969942?t=HQxEqhEkxzpHR0pbt9cbMw&s=19
@patriottakes
Neo-Nazis joined RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump’s boat parade and yelled, “white power,” “make America white again,” “heil Trump,” and racial slurs.
https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1845880663750394194
Other interpretation is who gives a crap, they will be judged on position of the country in 2028 or 29 not textual analysis of a manifesto from 2024.
https://x.com/Dan1763/status/1845774572303380578
Where is a members poll ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/14/labour-sensitive-demands-slavery-reparations/
I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
And as far as your last sentence I thought we were doing the new politics and this is exactly why the public are disillusioned
So far this means seizing £100,000 in dodgy freebies and now breaking firm manifesto pledges as soon as he can
Its…. not good
Thing is, did they not see this coming? They didn’t even have to make those pledges. But they did. So now they will look like terrible liars on top of everything
It’s a relentless procession of major errors
In which case, Germany has in no way paid enough reparations for WW2. Or Japan, for that matter. And those are much more immediate and much more direct. And I expect Russia to fully pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine in any peace settlement.
I'd also point out that slavery is much more than 'white man's guilt'. Should the descendants of the Barbary pirates pay reparations to us and the other coastal European settlements they devastated? And should the money and expense Britain spent in finally abolishing slavery - e.g. the West Africa Squadron - be taken off our ledger?
And being cynical, I expect the money, if it is handed over, to be very poorly spent, and not help (relatively) many people.
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/tory-1922-committee-double-no-confidence-threshold-new-leader
https://www.youtube.com/@DawnSturgessInquiry/streams
A lie which says “we will not raise National insurance” which is immediately followed by you raising National insurance is neither subtle nor clever
My EC model using 538 moving averages by state shows 268 -270 Kamala to Trump.
But I'm very wary of the polls and the betting. I suspect they are being manipulated.
Based on improving economy and stock market, propensity to vote, money, ground game, trend of Trump rhetoric, Kamala's net favourability versus Trump's -
I reckon it is a landslide for Kamala and have bet accordingly.
I disagree on them needing to be miles behind. If they are behind pretty much at all, particularly if Reform look a serious prospect as a parliamentary party, there'll be soundings. And in a way understandably so, as they are in a fairly precarious position if Labour are unloved but "given another chance" given both Reform and the Lib Dems will be looking to eat a Tory Party that doesn't look like returning to government's lunch.
And on that front Labour and them bumping around the high to upper mid 20s probably isn't good enough, given that absent mass Reform gains (which would come at their expense to some extent) they are uncoalitionable.
If she wins it will be scraping home over the line in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Georgia or Michigan in what looks like the closest US presidential election in the EC since 2000
TIPP
Harris 49
Trump 46
Harris X
Harris 49
Trump 47
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/uefa-nations-league/iceland-v-turkey-betting-33680484
A world where a party can go into an election saying "you're going to have to pay more tax" and not be utterly marmalised would undoubtedly be a better world than the one in which we live. But we don't.
40% of absentee ballots sent out have been returned already. That’s the highest rate in Michigan .
Definitely a postcode lottery.
[I don't think any consultants were involved]
(Available for free via Haaretz.com registration)
The writer lives in the northern Gaza Strip. His name has been withheld;
Opinion | Israel Is Killing Us. But Hamas Is Exploiting Our Deaths
I wish for the release of the Israeli hostages to the same extent that I wish for my own liberation. I call on the world to relate to us just as it relates to them, as hostages, and save us from both the brutality of the Israeli occupation and from our Hamas kidnappers
Anonymous
Gaza
Oct 14, 2024 1:22 pm IDT
GAZA – There is a great similarity between the residents of Gaza and the Israelis being held hostage by Hamas. Both are victims of failed leadership, having to contend with a fate they have not chosen.
The Israeli hostages found themselves in an instant underground, in a way reminiscent to the captivity residents of Gaza have experienced at the hands of Hamas for 18 years, during which they have been brainwashed with an ideology of ruin, leading us to destruction.
The similarity between the hostages on both sides is striking: the two leaders have no intention of rescuing the victims; using the hostages as an excuse for continuing warfare, sacrificing them for their own political considerations.
Hamas claims to be the representative of the Palestinian people, presenting the October 7 terror attack and the ensuing war as benefiting the nation. But Hamas does not represent us, and since 2010 its rule is illegitimate. It sees our blood as fuel for its political ambitions and as a means of imposing its rule over all Palestinian territories. Its insistence on clinging to power in Gaza is causing the deaths of an enormous number of Palestinians.
We, the residents of Gaza, understand the suffering of the Israeli hostages better than anyone else in the world. They, like us, have been deprived of the most basic of rights: to decide our fates. They are being held captive underground while we are hostages above ground, in the big prison of Gaza.
We suffer from the war like they do, paying the price for an insane and lethal adventure. The only difference between us is the size of the area we are held in and its location.
Cut Spending (on the NHS and the State Pension) vs Raise Taxes (on Everyone including You)
I wish for the release of the Israeli hostages to the same extent that I wish for my own liberation. I call on the world to relate to us just as it relates to them, as hostages, and save us from both the brutality of the Israeli occupation and from our Hamas kidnappers. This will only happen by exerting great pressure on our kidnappers and on Israel's government so that they stop colluding against Gaza, and finally let us decide our own fate.
Hamas is aware of this and has sacrificed Gaza in order to raise its popularity in the West Bank and overseas. Indeed, if elections were held now in all Palestinian territories, it would assume power again via a different entrance. I think that one of the undeclared reasons that motivated Hamas to carry out the October 7 attack was its wish to eliminate the Palestinian Authority and take over the Palestinian political apparatus.
Palestinian public opinion changed for the worse in regard to Hamas years ago. Gazans have been the group's hostages since 2006. They cannot express their opinions safely and freely, and they don't vote in elections. I am in my 30s and I've never voted. Despite this, some people insolently claim that Hamas is the people's choice. Is it really?
Due to eased Israeli restrictions before October 7, the number of people seeking work in Israel exceeded 100,000. This fact embarrassed Hamas, which had always opposed normalization with Israel. This may have accelerated the decision to attack on October 7 in order to disrupt the eased restrictions, which undermined Hamas' legitimacy.
Hamas earned its political capital through crises and isolation, which engender hatred and violence. Hamas was the first organization to send suicide bombers to blow themselves up at civilian border crossings at the beginning of the intifada. As a result, border crossings were closed to laborers and to Palestinians seeking medical treatment in Israel.
One year after the calamity of October 7, we are approaching a gigantic war led by fanatics on the extreme right. I am convinced that Hamas, the Iranian axis and the right-wing religious Zionists are two sides of the same coin. They feed on destruction and serve each other's interests. They do not hesitate to trample their people in order to justify their slogans.
Most wars that aim to eliminate the opposing side fail, leading only to destruction and ruin. The strategy of most successful wars is to gain an advantage during final negotiations. Israel's continuing clinging to a sterile strategy of occupation, a particularly bad one for a country situated in the midst of a hostile environment, attests to the fact that its destroyers will come from within.
Israel must finally realize that the Palestinian nation deserve a better life, and that it must be granted its full rights through an agreement that ensures the rights of both peoples to live in peace and security. The Jewish people have paid the highest price throughout their history due to oppression and evil, and they must understand that following in the steps of oppressive regimes that committed mass murder in the last century will not achieve security and stability for Israel.
Recognising the sins of the past is not the same as being ashamed of today’s country.
You can be a British patriot, for example, and be mildly disturbed by some of the actions of the East India Company, for example
Who can then harvest cotton in the fields of England. And wipe the bums of the elderly.
Can I have a statue?
Problem is of course that you are opening an entire can of worms in seeing reparations as a method of righting past wrongs rather than what it has been in the past, a settlement usually imposed by victors on the losers in a war to recoup some of their costs and ensure the losers can't do it again in a hurry.
The relevant sentence in Labour's manifestion is:
"Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT."
I am sure Labour will say they are not increasing the NI rate for working people; others will disagree.
He put it down to the new Labour government.
I think the age of the US being a superpower ends when the current generation die and the workers are Gen Z, they are pretty much morons. Millennials made tech giants, Gen Z seem to want to become streamers on twitch or only fans girls (or both).
Paralells with Brexit were brought out. Anf I think the word "midwit" was used.
And technically they stated that they wouldn't increase National Insurance, rather than contributions, so if they net it off against a decrease in employee contributions then they maintain their commitment. Indeed, it might be part of a long term trend to abolish NICs on the payslip entirely. About 2/3rd of NICs are employer, so it's by far the biggest chunk.
A broader question is why do we tax employment at all in this way? Why not transfer it all to income tax, including pensions, investments...land, property, wealth? (thought experiment rather than an actual suggestion).
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Harvard/Harris Final Poll
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 51% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 49%
FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 49% (+1)
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Battleground States
🟥 Trump: 49% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 47%
——
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 51% (+2)
🟥 GOP: 49%
——
• #170 (1.5/3.0) | 10/11-13 | 2,596 LV
• Battleground States n=898 LV
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1845891933685600463
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Oakeshott
Isobel Oakeshott's seems to be that all the Oakeshott's are all a little .. er .. interrelated :
@alphonselouis
I think all us Oakeshotts are related. There are v few of us. Michael Oakeshott was a cousin...
https://x.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/596451231188520960
My dad had his first kid in 1968. I once asked him if the swinging sixties were as great as they were made out. He said: "I don't know; I was too busy trying to make a living."
Whereas a friend of my parents lived the full life in the sixties, and knew lots of famous people (he was a designer, and designed a wine label that is still use to this day (*)). All the time I knew him as a kid, he was scrimping around for money, and his widow is now quite poor. Whereas my parents are having a comfortable retirement.
So don't take the visible to be the typical. It is most often untypical.
(*) I can't remember which one, but mum gets a bottle out occasionally in his memory.
Now, social and online media desperately needs an endless stream of content to keep people on their platforms - so people now get hugely rewarded for something that requires less technical skill but is in high demand. Of course it makes sense to be a streamer.
As an aside too, no skill maybe threatened by AI more than coding. As we move to an increasingly AI world soft skills like those inherent in communications may become more valuable than certain hard ones. Companies pay 'influencers' vast sums for a reason. Soul destroying nonsense of course. But simple economics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A-gqHJ1ENI
According to ChatGPT (usual caveats apply), there has never been a situation where the Presidency has flipped in one direction, and the House of Representatives in the other.
I know that no one really expects manifestos to be worth the paper they are printed on, but they can be expected to be slaughtered for this lie for a long time. It’s pretty clear that they said they wouldn’t raise NI and intend to do so.
Unless you are saying that those responses are the only ones that the interviewer got?
That is a typical clickbait video. They want the hits, so they edit the funniest answers, or even encourage people to give funny or wrong answer.
You described Gen Z as being 'pretty much morons' based on that video. I'd strongly argue that that makes you the moron, not them.
I guess a touch of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect.
Jenrick and Badenoch far more likely to agree a coalition government with Farage than Cleverly could
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaeVUIA54s8
Simply, polling will be out by 2-3%, and that means there will be a relatively clear victory for one candidate or another. Which one, I could tell you. But if you held a gun to my head, I think it is more likely that Trump wins.
He answered that it was a very depressing time and everyone was talking of emigrating. (So not much change then!).
When you look at the stats on how many Brits did emigrate in the Sixties, I think this may well be more accurate than most on the decade.
A double-flip of House and Senate would ensure continued divided control of the federal government and, given the currently extreme polarization of the parties, very likely additional gridlock. There’s a chance of something even more remarkable happening in November, however: a triple flip of House, Senate and the White House, leaving no stone unturned. That has actually happened once in American history: in 1952, when the New Deal era emphatically ended with Dwight D. Eisenhower breaking a 20-year Democratic winning streak in presidential elections, while Republicans also flipped both chambers of Congress (which Democrats had narrowly maintained control of in 1950 despite losing a lot of seats).
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/a-triple-flip-of-senate-house-and-white-house-could-happen.html
Score another 'win' for AI...
There are decent long-term standardized tests of educational achievement - such as the PISA rankings (international) and the NAEP in the US.
There was a dip in younger kids performance in the immediate aftermath of Covid (reflecting young kids not being in school), but generally the trends have been pretty flattish.
UAE: 0%
Canada: 7.4%
USA: 7.7%
Korea: 10%
UK: 13.8%
Japan: 15.5%
Singapore: 17%
Germany: 19.9%
Poland: 22%
Netherlands: 23%
Spain: 29.9%
Italy: 30%
France: 45%
So there’s certainly scope to rise. Maybe we should compromise and cap it at the Dutch rate.
·
3h
On Indigenous Peoples' Day we honor the immeasurable contributions that Native Americans have made over the years. At the
@ObamaFoundation
, we’re proud to support these seven changemakers in our 2024-2025 Leaders USA program:
https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1845863051196805281
As for exam papers: syllabuses change, sometimes rapidly. Here's a question I don't know the answer to: assuming you are (say) 46, so you did GCSEs 30 years ago. Could you go back and do the GCSE equivalent paper from 1964 without preparation and get a good score?
Because I've been helping my son with his maths, I've been looking at recent GCSE papers. I got an A in maths at GCSE in 1989 (the second year they were held...). There's no way I'd get an A at a recent paper without preparation, because the areas of maths covered, the format of the questions, and other things have changed. And, to be fair, I'm more than a little rusty.
With preparation; sure, I should do well. But just showing a kid a paper they've not covered the syllabus of is a little unfair.
There's a fair view YouTube videos of university mathematicians trying to do historic and modern maths papers. They don't always get them right, or find them surprisingly hard.
e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQVcv-T7IiY
(Edit: he got 73 out of 80)
Simply: when you're coding there is a massive amount of boiler plate, there are functional and unit tests to write, and LLMs can do that stuff with ease.
They're also amazing at enabling you to find (and correctly use) the right libraries.
Now, are they likely to come up with a novel solution to an entirely new problem? No. (But then again, how much of a programmer's work is that?)
Are they revolutionising coding? Absolutely.
* yeah, yeah, it's a real language, deal with it
“Together, this modification and its companion amendment will enable the Gen2 system to deliver gigabit-speed, truly low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity to all Americans and the billions of people globally who still lack access to adequate broadband.”
The request includes lowering the altitude of three Starlink satellite shells by 45 and 60 km.
SpaceX also wants the Starlink satellites to harness the E-band radio frequencies to help better deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband to users, including through fixed satellite dishes and mobile equipment.
“The upgraded Gen2 system will feature enhanced hardware that can use higher gain and more advanced beamforming and digital processing technologies and provide more targeted and robust coverage for American consumers – These upgraded satellites can maximize the use of the available bandwidth, enabling more efficient allocation of resources and facilitating a broader range of services.”
https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1845858409633210751
I thought he was making a Monty Python gag.
Got married in 1964
Moved to North Wales in 1965 to start a business
Had our first born in 1966
Lots of engagement in sport and the local community
Worked hard and above all else did not have 24/7 social media
They were happy days followed by our daughter in 1971 and our youngest in 1975
It's part of how we generate the Principal Skinner "no, it's the children that are wrong" force field to protect our beliefs.
That's before we get onto the properly old, who would love to cede power, but they can't because the two generations below them just aren't up to it...
But overall, every generation is the same mix of superheroes, supervillans and nitwits that it always has been.
She told me that the “Mound Builders” were devastated by diseases brought by the Europeans.
Can’t really argue with that…
I see it at work, I closed our graduate/no experience scheme in data and product because the quality of candidates is truly awful. Schools and universities are producing middle range kids who don't have the skills or inquisitiveness for the real world. Everything needs to be spoon fed and they get very upset when they're asked to learn things for themselves using Google, stack overflow or even chatgpt. I've also paused mid level hiring as well and we're now only hiring for senior roles which puts an effective age bar of over 28, it's sad because I want to give people opportunities but we don't have the time or resource to undo 7-10 years of terrible education and low expectations from teachers and parents.
Cursor is also giving hints at what's to come. https://www.cursor.com/