This is my photo for the day, and it comes with a question.
Here is the photo, Donald Trump channelling Chucky. A pic from a recent video.
Here's the video, which also mentions a strategy called "Red Wave" from 2020, which apparently involved Republicans manipulating the poll averages by generating a large number of opinion polls in the run up to Election Day. Can anyone explain, and compare / contrast?
This is my photo for the day, and it comes with a question.
Here is the photo, Donald Trump channelling Chucky. A pic from a recent video.
Here's the video, which also mentions a strategy called "Red Wave" from 2020, which apparently involved Republicans manipulating the poll averages by generating a large number of opinion polls in the run up to Election Day. Can anyone explain, and compare / contrast?
Interesting focus group accounts of Kemi and Jenrick. Worth a look.
I've a hunch Kemi could be seriously bad news for Sir Keir, if these people are anyway representative. And I'm not really sure how Farage would manage - he could easily look like last week's news compared to someone as assertive, colourful and new. Not sure the odd gaffe would make much difference - in fact may even help. Authenticity and personality count.
Agree. It could go any direction, but new heroine of the right/populist is a possibility. Various cards can be played against her, but not: race, billionaire, Oxford PPE/Lit. Hum., Cambridge lawyer, lawyer, boring.
If I had a vote in this I would be tempted not to use it. OTOH the other candidate is Jenrick and it is difficult to argue he is not worse than any other possible candidate. No, Lee Anderson would be worse.
The focus group outcome is interesting, but it's completely non-quantitative, so it's really only Guardian spin that Kemi was the victor.
That clip of Skyr Toolmakersson’s terrible anecdote - “I kid you not, I learned the flute” - is quite revealing
To believe that this anecdote is interesting you have to be incredibly self absorbed, or really quite stupid. Or both?
Well he is clearly not entirely stupid, but definitely self-absorbed while paradoxically being exceedingly dull. Another piece of evidence too that his cringing claims to be "working class" really are bollocks. No self respecting working class kid would play the flute ffs!
I suspect they wouldn't now.
They may well have done in the past, when striving working class self-improvement was much more of a thing. (As were school music lessons.)
Lest we forget, Starmer is quite old, and a lot of the Britain he grew up in was rather different to today. In some ways that's good, but in others it isn't.
I would have loved to learn to play the flute at school, but I knew my parents couldn't afford it so never mentioned it. I took it up in my mid-twenties.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has just told my colleague Joel that if - as expected - she increases what employers pay to the government in national insurance that would be consistent with the Labour Party's manifesto promise not to "increase national insurance".
The only mention in the full manifesto. I don't see a promise to employers firm enough to prevent wriggle room. Nor do I see a promise not to adjust the cap:
The Conservatives have raised the tax burden to a 70-year high. We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible. Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT. https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
That clip of Skyr Toolmakersson’s terrible anecdote - “I kid you not, I learned the flute” - is quite revealing
To believe that this anecdote is interesting you have to be incredibly self absorbed, or really quite stupid. Or both?
Well he is clearly not entirely stupid, but definitely self-absorbed while paradoxically being exceedingly dull. Another piece of evidence too that his cringing claims to be "working class" really are bollocks. No self respecting working class kid would play the flute ffs!
I suspect they wouldn't now.
They may well have done in the past, when striving working class self-improvement was much more of a thing. (As were school music lessons.)
Lest we forget, Starmer is quite old, and a lot of the Britain he grew up in was rather different to today. In some ways that's good, but in others it isn't.
I would have loved to learn to play the flute at school, but I knew my parents couldn't afford it so never mentioned it. I took it up in my mid-twenties.
Good evening, everybody.
That reminds me that I still have my decent school trumper (Olds Ambassador) upstairs. Value maybe £150 in 2024. Hmmm - perhaps I need to consider donating to a local school.
The government are really letting the rumours of employee NI rise in the budget run. Starmer shot down the CGT will go to 39%, but avoided when pushed on NI rise.
*Employer
It's a weird tax to think about. Interested in PBers take on it - a sort of employment wedge?
For a small business it is awful, it is a tax on jobs. For large companies they can absorb these things a lot more easily.
The problem when it comes to taxing companies is the massive multi-national companies have exploited all the global loopholes to avoid taxes on profits, so governments have increasingly moved to tax operation. The big issue is that small / medium companies can't exploit those same loopholes, so get walloped on the tax operation (and this stops growth) and tax on profits.
It was a bad idea when Sunak was proposing to increase NI, its a bad idea now.
We need to get a model were we are really encouraging small / mid companies to take on employees and grow. The UK particularly bad for imbalance where we have lots of companies, but the majority in two buckets, micro companies and mega multi-nationals. I can't remember the exact stat, but there are very very few companies in the mid bracket with 500-1000 type number of employees.
In large parts of the tax system the level of avoidance and evasion by SMEs is way greater than by large companies. Many of the FTSE100 have effective tax rates way in excess of the headline rates of the countries they operate in.
But you are right, the “SMEs” in this case are very much at the small rather than properly medium. We do lack a proper mittelstand.
As for raising employer NI, I’ve been anticipating it for a while. It does make some sense in its own terms:
- it’s the tax where there is the biggest difference between the UK and its European peers (eg Germany and the NL are 18%, and that’s before you get to the eye watering levels elsewhere). In fact it’s the main reason our tax base is lower than those countries - we have a problem of investment and productivity, which many people put at least partly down to over reliance on cheap labour. This shifts the equation a bit - It’s not directly a “tax on working people” so it’s the only tool in the major tax toolbox not already ruled out in the manifesto
One man bands definitely can exploit avoidance / evasion, and the UK is stuffed with them. But companies of say 100, they aren't able to do that. My point is you want to try to have more of these size companies as they from those you can get some big winners. The UK problem is loads of solo businesses, who make an decent living, all good, then the mega-corp (nearly all foreign), and very difficult conditions to grow that business from 50 or 100 to something more sizable (in no small part lots of turnover taxes).
On point #2, I don't think you shift that needle by adding say 1% on NI. I think you have to shift it by making it very attractive to businesses to invest in new tech. Also, the other obviously approach is for the government to stop importing 1 million people a year and properly cracking down on use of illegal labour. But each government backs down from a position of either setting quotas or setting proper minimum wage levels (the current government already binned off the increase from the Tories).
One effective way of stopping tax avoidance is by making it illegal to pay tradesmen in cash, or for tradesmen to receive cash payments. There is an entire wing of the black economy that is based on cash payments they are never declared... which of course increases the burden for everyone else. "My barber/takeaway only accepts cash": why do you think that is?
Which seems brilliant until people like ahem TSE put you on a list and you can no longer work.
BTW what happened to all the concern about the unbanked from the Telegraph n co?
Wasn't Farage meant to be championing that noble cause?
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
Could you go to an optician in England as an alternative?
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
Could you go to an optician in England as an alternative?
This afternoon my wife's optician confirmed she needed cataract surgery and has applied to Wales NHS by formwork to be placed on the waiting list which is approx 18 months
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
Could you go to an optician in England as an alternative?
Definitely going to plumb whole new depths of unpopularity
They’re doing a great job of taking the hospital pass from the Tories in the face whilst missing the attempted kick so badly that their boot flies off and also kicks them in the face.
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
Last year I had a procedure to correct a cornea issue. From my optician doing a referral to getting the procedure took NHS Scotland just a little over 3 years. Devolution really isn't working for the NHS.
(oh, and I now need the same work done on the other eye. Wonder how long it will take this time...)
The view from just above the chopsticks, as they close in on the rocket that was 100km up only three minutes earlier, is possibly the personal favourite!
That's amazing.
One for the space nerds I think. When I saw your OP I (genuinely) thought it would be a video of someone catching chopsticks in the air and was slightly disappointed that it was space stuff.
Definitely going to plumb whole new depths of unpopularity
They’re doing a great job of taking the hospital pass from the Tories in the face whilst missing the attempted kick so badly that their boot flies off and also kicks them in the face.
12/10 for effort.
Before the election I speculated the reasonable worse case scenario. It was this: that it would turn out Labour actually had no ideas, and they would be easily as incompetent as the Tories, but all this would come with added layers of Wokeness, making them even more annoying
It sounds outlandish, but is it possible that Trump wins the White House, but the GOP lose the House and fall short in the Senate?
There's an orthodoxy on here that any normal sane Republican would win the Presidency at a canter - mainly because right-wing Brits such as the PB Tories would vote for a sane Republican but recoil from Trump. But I rather suspect that isn't so. I think Trump reaches and motivates a lot of voters that the rest of the GOP cannot touch.
Definitely going to plumb whole new depths of unpopularity
They’re doing a great job of taking the hospital pass from the Tories in the face whilst missing the attempted kick so badly that their boot flies off and also kicks them in the face.
12/10 for effort.
Had to read this three or four times, but good analogy.
All three sub-continental team ….. India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka …… are out of the Women’s t20 World Cup after New Zealand get Pakistan out in 11.4 overs.
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
Last year I had a procedure to correct a cornea issue. From my optician doing a referral to getting the procedure took NHS Scotland just a little over 3 years. Devolution really isn't working for the NHS.
(oh, and I now need the same work done on the other eye. Wonder how long it will take this time...)
It matters if you need to drive and I expect to have it done privately before Christmas after my next appointment with our optician
Definitely going to plumb whole new depths of unpopularity
They’re doing a great job of taking the hospital pass from the Tories in the face whilst missing the attempted kick so badly that their boot flies off and also kicks them in the face.
12/10 for effort.
The hilarity comes from PB lefties - who were rightly so angry at Conservative missteps - excusing Labour's.
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
That sounds like fun .
What do you think about middle-aged men dyeing their hair to try and look younger?
Also, cats have been around for millions of years. Why have they not yet learned to retract their claws before pulling their feet back? Every cat I've ever known does this, tugging ineffectually at whatever material it has got its claws into.
As I’ve said before, Labour lacks the big narrative. A “Levelling Up”.
Without that, everything looks haphazard, if not cruel and incompetent.
Although I don’t follow it as closely as I used to, I’m still a million times more interested in British politics than the average person.
I could not tell you what the big narrative is.
That’s because there really isn’t one. The cupboard is bare
The narrative is that Labour spent 14 years in opposition and had no ideas during that time. And all they cared about when getting into office was immediately seizing all the perks and baubles as quickly as possible, and doing it with a sense of hideous entitlement
Policy wise it’s a desperate lukewarm hodgepodge of ill advised greenery, tiresome wokeness, foreign policy calamities, disapproving Puritanism and higher taxes
It is spectacularly bad. This is why Starmer’s popularity has dropped 49 points in 60 days. Almost a point a day, something never before achieved, from +11 to -38 in two months. The British voter is staring at this government in shocked disbelief
New Economics Foundation are left wing but thoughtful - their judgement is worth listening to.
Two thoughts: 1) I wonder if there is a clever game going on - Labour are putting out messages that they are tightening belts everywhere, not putting up taxes etc. This is the narrative in the country. But actually, the budget changes the fiscal rules to borrow more, and IHT, Corporation Tax is hit hard to create space to make improvements on NHS and cost of living. Those who bother listening wail loudly, but it *may* not cut through. (I rate this about a 5% chance of being true). 2) All of the current angst about Labour being shit will be forgotten if within the next four years a narrative takes hold that 'national renewal' is actually starting to happen - investment and growth up, NHS gets a bit better, CoL issues recede. Labour can afford to be hated now if they pull through (I rate them doing this as about 25% at the moment, which may be generous).
If neither 1 nor 2 happen I think we're in dark electoral territory indeed.
Ouch. That looks like a massive blunder. A “deplorables” moment
It’s not quite that bad, but she’s talking to the woke activist 3%, rather than the 97% for whom today is a celebration of how they came to be where they are today, born of parents living the Dream.
Is it ? You still haven't really explained why the US celebrates the Spanish/Portugese conquest of South America.
It’s a good example of the risk asymmetry in this election. Harris must carry a Ming Vase. Anything she says that implies anything less than heartfelt love for all voters is catastrophic. Trump and his VP on the other hand can throw out insults left right and centre including to most minority groups, the entire female sex and anyone owning a cat and its water off a duck’s back.
Nonetheless, she has said a stupid Woke and insulting thing to all white Americans of European descent, on Columbus Day
This isn’t a sensible comment being skewed. She said a very dumb and insolent thing
There’s an interesting sort of symmetry with Trump’s polemic. Both narratives contrast a idealised status quo ante with the dangerous incomer, spreading disease and violence and undermining the native culture. The main difference is where and when they set the story. 1492 or 2024.
I didn't hear anything in that clip about an idealised status quo ante. It's simply history that European colonisation wiped out somewhere between 80 and 90% of the indigenous population, largely through disease. A pretty big wave. That was certainly unfortunate, even if you think 'shameful' a tad hyperbolic.
I think the problem is characterising the whole discovery and settlement of America as “shameful”.
The catastrophic loss of the indigenous population is certainly a vital part of the story, but it’s not the whole story.
There must be few countries on earth without a history of one dominant culture supplanting another in a fairly uncompromising way. In most cases they will have replaced a dominant culture which itself replaced a previous culture, and so on backwards. The USA is hardly unique in this.
Most of the examples you allude to, appear to have been gradual process, with assimilation & accomodation (both ways) being more common, than extermination and genocide.
One notable exception - within the British Empire - being Tasmania:
With respect to (from my perspective*) pretty hilarious PB discussion of Columus Day, and riffing off of Jim Miller's somewhat obscure reference to Gov of OK (the great Sooner State NOT the great PBer)
I vividly remember reading, in biography of Will Rogers about a speech that WR gave to a small audience in his hometown of Claymore, Oklahoma about 100 years ago.
Will Rogers was THE big-name media celebrity of early 20th-century America. Of mixed Indian-White descent, he literally ran away from home to join the circus, he initally became famous as a cowboy rope-twirler of exceptional skill and showmanship.
Rogers then morphed into a New York stand-up comedian (he started telling jokes during lulls in his rope-twirling) who just repeated what he'd read that morning in the newspapers, whatever had struck him as funny (one way or another) in national news, mostly political. Before long, he was pounding out a HIGHLY popular newspaper columnist (top in USA) AND movie star (in movies starring characters closely modeled after himself.
He was critical and funny, but never (overtly) negative. EXCEPT for that speech in Claymore, delivered at the height of his career, when he was being "nominated" for POTUS on regular basis and was the (unofficial) mayor of Santa Monica CA (as leading movie star).
As I vividly recall (but don't have text handy) Will Rogers condemned the crimes of White Europeans against Native Americans directly, bittingly and indeed bitterly. He pulled no punches in stating his strong personal feelings on the injustices, disrespect, degredation and near-extermination of his Native ancestors and kinfolk.
Which like I said was NOT what people expected from Will Rogers, not hardly. NOT from the man who famously said, "I never met a man I didn't like"!
Speaking of politics . . .
"I belong to no organized political party - I'm a Democrat" Will Rogers
Personally, I think Reeves is sticking to her pledge. Call it the Sherlock Holmes strategy…when you rule out the impossible…
Yep. Looks like classic political sleight of hand from Rachel. She has to raise money somehow and this would seem to comply with the spirit of her pledge.
Ouch. That looks like a massive blunder. A “deplorables” moment
It’s not quite that bad, but she’s talking to the woke activist 3%, rather than the 97% for whom today is a celebration of how they came to be where they are today, born of parents living the Dream.
Is it ? You still haven't really explained why the US celebrates the Spanish/Portugese conquest of South America.
It’s a good example of the risk asymmetry in this election. Harris must carry a Ming Vase. Anything she says that implies anything less than heartfelt love for all voters is catastrophic. Trump and his VP on the other hand can throw out insults left right and centre including to most minority groups, the entire female sex and anyone owning a cat and its water off a duck’s back.
Nonetheless, she has said a stupid Woke and insulting thing to all white Americans of European descent, on Columbus Day
This isn’t a sensible comment being skewed. She said a very dumb and insolent thing
There’s an interesting sort of symmetry with Trump’s polemic. Both narratives contrast a idealised status quo ante with the dangerous incomer, spreading disease and violence and undermining the native culture. The main difference is where and when they set the story. 1492 or 2024.
I didn't hear anything in that clip about an idealised status quo ante. It's simply history that European colonisation wiped out somewhere between 80 and 90% of the indigenous population, largely through disease. A pretty big wave. That was certainly unfortunate, even if you think 'shameful' a tad hyperbolic.
I think the problem is characterising the whole discovery and settlement of America as “shameful”.
The catastrophic loss of the indigenous population is certainly a vital part of the story, but it’s not the whole story.
There must be few countries on earth without a history of one dominant culture supplanting another in a fairly uncompromising way. In most cases they will have replaced a dominant culture which itself replaced a previous culture, and so on backwards. The USA is hardly unique in this.
Most of the examples you allude to, appear to have been gradual process, with assimilation & accomodation (both ways) being more common, than extermination and genocide.
One notable exception - within the British Empire - being Tasmania:
Ouch. That looks like a massive blunder. A “deplorables” moment
It’s not quite that bad, but she’s talking to the woke activist 3%, rather than the 97% for whom today is a celebration of how they came to be where they are today, born of parents living the Dream.
Is it ? You still haven't really explained why the US celebrates the Spanish/Portugese conquest of South America.
It’s a good example of the risk asymmetry in this election. Harris must carry a Ming Vase. Anything she says that implies anything less than heartfelt love for all voters is catastrophic. Trump and his VP on the other hand can throw out insults left right and centre including to most minority groups, the entire female sex and anyone owning a cat and its water off a duck’s back.
Nonetheless, she has said a stupid Woke and insulting thing to all white Americans of European descent, on Columbus Day
This isn’t a sensible comment being skewed. She said a very dumb and insolent thing
There’s an interesting sort of symmetry with Trump’s polemic. Both narratives contrast a idealised status quo ante with the dangerous incomer, spreading disease and violence and undermining the native culture. The main difference is where and when they set the story. 1492 or 2024.
I didn't hear anything in that clip about an idealised status quo ante. It's simply history that European colonisation wiped out somewhere between 80 and 90% of the indigenous population, largely through disease. A pretty big wave. That was certainly unfortunate, even if you think 'shameful' a tad hyperbolic.
I think the problem is characterising the whole discovery and settlement of America as “shameful”.
The catastrophic loss of the indigenous population is certainly a vital part of the story, but it’s not the whole story.
There must be few countries on earth without a history of one dominant culture supplanting another in a fairly uncompromising way. In most cases they will have replaced a dominant culture which itself replaced a previous culture, and so on backwards. The USA is hardly unique in this.
Most of the examples you allude to, appear to have been gradual process, with assimilation & accomodation (both ways) being more common, than extermination and genocide.
One notable exception - within the British Empire - being Tasmania:
Battle of Hastings? Frankish invasion of Gaul? Battle of Alesia? To name just three examples close to home.
They were just a new elite taking over. Little genocide took place (obviously I wouldn't say none). The Anglo-Saxon invasion was similar.
I believe 30-50% of the Gauls were killed after the battle of Alesia. Norman invasion: yes, localised genocide only (I think the populations of the West and North ridings were largely wiped out), but 90%+ of all land taken by the incomers.
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Fair.
After all, a row about cats caused Leon to quit the site in anger for several days. And one dares not mention the imbroglio over Boris' weight. Few involved in that dispute emerged without scars.
As I’ve said before, Labour lacks the big narrative. A “Levelling Up”.
Without that, everything looks haphazard, if not cruel and incompetent.
Although I don’t follow it as closely as I used to, I’m still a million times more interested in British politics than the average person.
I could not tell you what the big narrative is.
I mean it's supposed to be 'Rebuilding Britain' - fixing all the stuff that had been left to rot under the Tories with hopefully some nice shiny new stuff.
The difficulty with that is, firstly, it costs money and Labour put themselves in a bit of a straitjacket - and pressures on spending mean it's an uphill battle anyway. Secondly it takes time - if by next summer Labour has some progress to shout about in key areas it'll be the clear message.
Thirdly, and this is entirely avoidable, it needs the public to cut you a bit of slack in the meantime so you have to look solidly competent and avoid needless missteps. You can't hammer home the idea you're quietly getting on with the job if every other interview requires you to justify something daft and self-inflicted.
Personally, I think Reeves is sticking to her pledge. Call it the Sherlock Holmes strategy…when you rule out the impossible…
Yep. Looks like classic political sleight of hand from Rachel. She has to raise money somehow and this would seem to comply with the spirit of her pledge.
A preview of Reeves’ statement:
“It’s time to tax jobs. Companies have been getting away with employing people for too long and the Labour Party is taking action to make it harder for them.”
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
The question today is will any of this move the polls and more importantly will the Autumn Statement?
Probably downwards for Labour !
The public seem very grumpy and unforgiving at the moment .
Increasing taxes and borrowing are not the best recipe to assuage the public especially as labour made a big play on how taxed we are as a nation under the conservatives
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
That sounds like fun .
What do you think about middle-aged men dyeing their hair to try and look younger?
Haha - I think recent discussions on here have shown I'm right up one end of the spectrum in my views on vanity about one's own appearance!
As I’ve said before, Labour lacks the big narrative. A “Levelling Up”.
Without that, everything looks haphazard, if not cruel and incompetent.
Although I don’t follow it as closely as I used to, I’m still a million times more interested in British politics than the average person.
I could not tell you what the big narrative is.
This is the issue. They didn’t get a mandate for anything much. The strategy they had seemed to be to win the election, and they’d worry about the governing afterwards.
I have said it a few times but it really bears repeating - they had a whole summer to do the optimistic change routine, how great we are compared to the Tories, etc. Instead we got ban everything, freeze grannies and, oh, before we forget, everything is going to get even WORSE.
That clip of Skyr Toolmakersson’s terrible anecdote - “I kid you not, I learned the flute” - is quite revealing
To believe that this anecdote is interesting you have to be incredibly self absorbed, or really quite stupid. Or both?
Well he is clearly not entirely stupid, but definitely self-absorbed while paradoxically being exceedingly dull. Another piece of evidence too that his cringing claims to be "working class" really are bollocks. No self respecting working class kid would play the flute ffs!
I suspect they wouldn't now.
They may well have done in the past, when striving working class self-improvement was much more of a thing. (As were school music lessons.)
Lest we forget, Starmer is quite old, and a lot of the Britain he grew up in was rather different to today. In some ways that's good, but in others it isn't.
I would have loved to learn to play the flute at school, but I knew my parents couldn't afford it so never mentioned it. I took it up in my mid-twenties.
Good evening, everybody.
That reminds me that I still have my decent school trumper (Olds Ambassador) upstairs. Value maybe £150 in 2024. Hmmm - perhaps I need to consider donating to a local school.
I'd really encourage you to do so. In my forties I loaned my flute to a friend's grand-daughter, and via her sold it very cheaply to her friend whose parents couldn't afford much. I'd have willingly donated it, but sometimes that isn't the right approach.
With respect to (from my perspective*) pretty hilarious PB discussion of Columus Day, and riffing off of Jim Miller's somewhat obscure reference to Gov of OK (the great Sooner State NOT the great PBer)
I vividly remember reading, in biography of Will Rogers about a speech that WR gave to a small audience in his hometown of Claymore, Oklahoma about 100 years ago.
Will Rogers was THE big-name media celebrity of early 20th-century America. Of mixed Indian-White descent, he literally ran away from home to join the circus, he initally became famous as a cowboy rope-twirler of exceptional skill and showmanship.
Rogers then morphed into a New York stand-up comedian (he started telling jokes during lulls in his rope-twirling) who just repeated what he'd read that morning in the newspapers, whatever had struck him as funny (one way or another) in national news, mostly political. Before long, he was pounding out a HIGHLY popular newspaper columnist (top in USA) AND movie star (in movies starring characters closely modeled after himself.
He was critical and funny, but never (overtly) negative. EXCEPT for that speech in Claymore, delivered at the height of his career, when he was being "nominated" for POTUS on regular basis and was the (unofficial) mayor of Santa Monica CA (as leading movie star).
As I vividly recall (but don't have text handy) Will Rogers condemned the crimes of White Europeans against Native Americans directly, bittingly and indeed bitterly. He pulled no punches in stating his strong personal feelings on the injustices, disrespect, degredation and near-extermination of his Native ancestors and kinfolk.
Which like I said was NOT what people expected from Will Rogers, not hardly. NOT from the man who famously said, "I never met a man I didn't like"!
Speaking of politics . . .
"I belong to no organized political party - I'm a Democrat" Will Rogers
Speaking (as one often does) of Will Rogers, there's an interesting connection (of sort anyway) between him and . . . wait for it . . . Elon Musk.
For WR was also, in his way, a pioneer (broadly defined) in aviation (ditto)
from his wiki:
Rogers crusaded for aviation expansion and provided Americans with first-hand accounts of his world travels. . . . He took a strong, highly popular stand in favor of aviation, including a military air force of the sort his flying buddy General Billy Mitchell advocated. . . . He took a strong, highly popular stand in favor of aviation, including a military air force of the sort his flying buddy General Billy Mitchell advocated. . . .
Will Rogers became an advocate for the aviation industry after noticing advancements in Europe and befriending Charles Lindbergh . . . . Rogers' newspaper columns frequently emphasized the safety record, speed, and convenience of this means of transportation, and he helped shape public opinion on the subject.
In 1935, the famed aviator Wiley Post, an Oklahoman, became interested in surveying a mail-and-passenger air route from the West Coast to Russia. He attached a Lockheed Explorer wing to a Lockheed Orion fuselage, fitting floats for landing in the lakes of Alaska and Siberia. Rogers visited Post often at the airport in Burbank, California, while he was modifying the aircraft. He asked Post to fly him through Alaska in search of new material for his newspaper column. . . .
After making a test flight in July, Post and Rogers left Lake Washington in Renton, Washington in the Lockheed Orion-Explorer in early August and then made several stops in Alaska. While Post piloted the aircraft, Rogers wrote his columns on his typewriter. . . .
About 20 miles southwest of Point Barrow, having difficulty figuring their position due to bad weather, they landed in a lagoon to ask directions. On takeoff, the engine failed at low altitude, and the aircraft plunged into the lagoon, shearing off the right wing, and ended up inverted in the shallow water of the lagoon. Both men died instantly. . . .
SSI - Can testify to the fame and the respect that Will Rogers enjoyed among the generations of Americans alive when he died in 1935. And justly so.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
With respect to (from my perspective*) pretty hilarious PB discussion of Columus Day, and riffing off of Jim Miller's somewhat obscure reference to Gov of OK (the great Sooner State NOT the great PBer)
I vividly remember reading, in biography of Will Rogers about a speech that WR gave to a small audience in his hometown of Claymore, Oklahoma about 100 years ago.
Will Rogers was THE big-name media celebrity of early 20th-century America. Of mixed Indian-White descent, he literally ran away from home to join the circus, he initally became famous as a cowboy rope-twirler of exceptional skill and showmanship.
Rogers then morphed into a New York stand-up comedian (he started telling jokes during lulls in his rope-twirling) who just repeated what he'd read that morning in the newspapers, whatever had struck him as funny (one way or another) in national news, mostly political. Before long, he was pounding out a HIGHLY popular newspaper columnist (top in USA) AND movie star (in movies starring characters closely modeled after himself.
He was critical and funny, but never (overtly) negative. EXCEPT for that speech in Claymore, delivered at the height of his career, when he was being "nominated" for POTUS on regular basis and was the (unofficial) mayor of Santa Monica CA (as leading movie star).
As I vividly recall (but don't have text handy) Will Rogers condemned the crimes of White Europeans against Native Americans directly, bittingly and indeed bitterly. He pulled no punches in stating his strong personal feelings on the injustices, disrespect, degredation and near-extermination of his Native ancestors and kinfolk.
Which like I said was NOT what people expected from Will Rogers, not hardly. NOT from the man who famously said, "I never met a man I didn't like"!
Speaking of politics . . .
"I belong to no organized political party - I'm a Democrat" Will Rogers
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
Watching Starmer’s interview with Bloomberg, he more-or-less confirms to Steph Flanders that the basic rate of capital gains tax is going up, but just not to 39%
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
With respect to (from my perspective*) pretty hilarious PB discussion of Columus Day, and riffing off of Jim Miller's somewhat obscure reference to Gov of OK (the great Sooner State NOT the great PBer)
I vividly remember reading, in biography of Will Rogers about a speech that WR gave to a small audience in his hometown of Claymore, Oklahoma about 100 years ago.
Will Rogers was THE big-name media celebrity of early 20th-century America. Of mixed Indian-White descent, he literally ran away from home to join the circus, he initally became famous as a cowboy rope-twirler of exceptional skill and showmanship.
Rogers then morphed into a New York stand-up comedian (he started telling jokes during lulls in his rope-twirling) who just repeated what he'd read that morning in the newspapers, whatever had struck him as funny (one way or another) in national news, mostly political. Before long, he was pounding out a HIGHLY popular newspaper columnist (top in USA) AND movie star (in movies starring characters closely modeled after himself.
He was critical and funny, but never (overtly) negative. EXCEPT for that speech in Claymore, delivered at the height of his career, when he was being "nominated" for POTUS on regular basis and was the (unofficial) mayor of Santa Monica CA (as leading movie star).
As I vividly recall (but don't have text handy) Will Rogers condemned the crimes of White Europeans against Native Americans directly, bittingly and indeed bitterly. He pulled no punches in stating his strong personal feelings on the injustices, disrespect, degredation and near-extermination of his Native ancestors and kinfolk.
Which like I said was NOT what people expected from Will Rogers, not hardly. NOT from the man who famously said, "I never met a man I didn't like"!
Speaking of politics . . .
"I belong to no organized political party - I'm a Democrat" Will Rogers
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Deltics are cr@p that should never have progressed past their first prototype.
As I’ve said before, Labour lacks the big narrative. A “Levelling Up”.
Without that, everything looks haphazard, if not cruel and incompetent.
Although I don’t follow it as closely as I used to, I’m still a million times more interested in British politics than the average person.
I could not tell you what the big narrative is.
I mean it's supposed to be 'Rebuilding Britain' - fixing all the stuff that had been left to rot under the Tories with hopefully some nice shiny new stuff.
The difficulty with that is, firstly, it costs money and Labour put themselves in a bit of a straitjacket - and pressures on spending mean it's an uphill battle anyway. Secondly it takes time - if by next summer Labour has some progress to shout about in key areas it'll be the clear message.
Thirdly, and this is entirely avoidable, it needs the public to cut you a bit of slack in the meantime so you have to look solidly competent and avoid needless missteps. You can't hammer home the idea you're quietly getting on with the job if every other interview requires you to justify something daft and self-inflicted.
True but there's a fourth point, the most important of all. Labour don't have the slightest idea how to Rebuild Britain, and indeed they scarcely pretend to, and most of the electorate outside the public sector and a few pressure groups, is savvy enough to realise it. For all its emphasis on managerial competence, it is pretty clear that it is actually like a rabbit in headlights when it comes to dealing with reform in the public sector. Its remedy is a few technocratic changes, when much more radical surgery is needed.
And if it is clueless in rebuilding the public sector, its plans for the private sector are actually deeply harmful - more taxes, more spending, more regulation, more stagnation and eventually decline. Starmer says he's pro-growth and anti-red tape, but actually most of his actions suggest the opposite.
If they do survive this term and win another one, it will be because of an incompetent, divided opposition, not because they have a clue how to rebuild the country.
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
As for politics interesting that trajectory for both Ford and Musk, has been from quirky progressive to strident reactionary.
ALWAYS tempered (if that's the word, which I doubt) by economic calculations. AND governmental interventions, both ways.
Am thinking the same is also true (to some extent) re: business and technology (ditto visa versa).
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
I'm sure it's possible to be a visionary entrepreneur (risk a substantial slice of your huge heap of winnings on a game of pitch and toss) and a political non-nutjob (don't take risks, because it's a country you are gambling with), but it ain't easy.
Mostly, when you take people out of their field of expertise, we're as dumb as each other.
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Fair.
After all, a row about cats caused Leon to quit the site in anger for several days. And one dares not mention the imbroglio over Boris' weight. Few involved in that dispute emerged without scars.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Deltics are cr@p that should never have progressed past their first prototype.
H0 scale is more accurate than OO scale model trains
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
Good grief. Did that start with Musk? He went there before with that man who was trying to raise that submarine.
On topic - Last week started well for the Dems but was followed by a series of polls that favoured Trump. The vast majority (but far from all) of them were Rep-affiliated but they were not all voodoo polls. Basically the Dems lost all the ground they gained the previous week and a little more in the Rust Belt (bar Siena in PA). In the South they fared rather better (bar Siena in AZ). Events in North Carolina probably make polling there largely guess-work now - rather as Covid did to the whole country in 2020.
The bad news for Trump is that tightening polls = increased likelihood of a big turn-out. The bigger the turn-out the more likely Harris will win. Putting it simply - if the Dems turn out then the Dems win. That has not changed.
With respect to (from my perspective*) pretty hilarious PB discussion of Columus Day, and riffing off of Jim Miller's somewhat obscure reference to Gov of OK (the great Sooner State NOT the great PBer)
I vividly remember reading, in biography of Will Rogers about a speech that WR gave to a small audience in his hometown of Claymore, Oklahoma about 100 years ago.
Will Rogers was THE big-name media celebrity of early 20th-century America. Of mixed Indian-White descent, he literally ran away from home to join the circus, he initally became famous as a cowboy rope-twirler of exceptional skill and showmanship.
Rogers then morphed into a New York stand-up comedian (he started telling jokes during lulls in his rope-twirling) who just repeated what he'd read that morning in the newspapers, whatever had struck him as funny (one way or another) in national news, mostly political. Before long, he was pounding out a HIGHLY popular newspaper columnist (top in USA) AND movie star (in movies starring characters closely modeled after himself.
He was critical and funny, but never (overtly) negative. EXCEPT for that speech in Claymore, delivered at the height of his career, when he was being "nominated" for POTUS on regular basis and was the (unofficial) mayor of Santa Monica CA (as leading movie star).
As I vividly recall (but don't have text handy) Will Rogers condemned the crimes of White Europeans against Native Americans directly, bittingly and indeed bitterly. He pulled no punches in stating his strong personal feelings on the injustices, disrespect, degredation and near-extermination of his Native ancestors and kinfolk.
Which like I said was NOT what people expected from Will Rogers, not hardly. NOT from the man who famously said, "I never met a man I didn't like"!
Speaking of politics . . .
"I belong to no organized political party - I'm a Democrat" Will Rogers
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
Harris is basically saying white Europeans are evil and the USA is an historical mistake for which Europeans should apologise
For someone seeking the presidency of the USA that seems suboptimal
What's so revealing is how posters like @Anabobazina and @kinabalu completely can't see it.
She'll be surrounded by people and advisors like them.
What I can see is people getting absurdly worked up about an old clip of Harris saying something true and appropriate for her audience.
Meanwhile back at the ranch Donald Trump continues a campaign comprised almost wholly of lies smears and intimidation.
It’s hilarious to see so much being made over some 3 year old clip. Which has gained zero attention from mainstream US media.
Yebbut we once had a massive falling out on here about packet rice. We can feel very strongly about quite ephemeral details. Nothing wrong with that. We're talking about it because we're talking about it, not because it's the main story of the day.
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
Good grief. Did that start with Musk? He went there before with that man who was trying to raise that submarine.
Not the submarine, the man who helped rescue the Thai teenagers from the cave.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
I'm sure it's possible to be a visionary entrepreneur (risk a substantial slice of your huge heap of winnings on a game of pitch and toss) and a political non-nutjob (don't take risks, because it's a country you are gambling with), but it ain't easy.
Mostly, when you take people out of their field of expertise, we're as dumb as each other.
See SKS.
True geniuses are often neurodivergent
Eg Einstein, and Newton. And Musk
They are prone to terrible social gaffes, have a “weird” sense of humour (at best) and very often fail to read the room
I saw that a couple of days ago, saw who was propagating it, and LOLed at the obvious shittiness. It's obviously just been invented to get at Walz. People who believe there is anything in this based on what we've seen so far are the same sort of people who build home-made rockets to prove the Earth is flat...
Particularly when the much better documented (aka 'real') sexual crimes of Trump are ignored by the same people.
The domination, on US Twitter, of the “October surprise”, ie the allegation that Tim Walz is a child molestor, is a good reason to perhaps avoid Elon Musk at your investment summit.
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
Good grief. Did that start with Musk? He went there before with that man who was trying to raise that submarine.
It didn’t start with Musk.
It’s just that X is now algorithmed to boost frankly fascist conspiracy theories, with the occasional bit of OnlyFans porn.
That clip of Skyr Toolmakersson’s terrible anecdote - “I kid you not, I learned the flute” - is quite revealing
To believe that this anecdote is interesting you have to be incredibly self absorbed, or really quite stupid. Or both?
Well he is clearly not entirely stupid, but definitely self-absorbed while paradoxically being exceedingly dull. Another piece of evidence too that his cringing claims to be "working class" really are bollocks. No self respecting working class kid would play the flute ffs!
I suspect they wouldn't now.
They may well have done in the past, when striving working class self-improvement was much more of a thing. (As were school music lessons.)
Lest we forget, Starmer is quite old, and a lot of the Britain he grew up in was rather different to today. In some ways that's good, but in others it isn't.
I would have loved to learn to play the flute at school, but I knew my parents couldn't afford it so never mentioned it. I took it up in my mid-twenties.
That clip of Skyr Toolmakersson’s terrible anecdote - “I kid you not, I learned the flute” - is quite revealing
To believe that this anecdote is interesting you have to be incredibly self absorbed, or really quite stupid. Or both?
Well he is clearly not entirely stupid, but definitely self-absorbed while paradoxically being exceedingly dull. Another piece of evidence too that his cringing claims to be "working class" really are bollocks. No self respecting working class kid would play the flute ffs!
I suspect they wouldn't now.
They may well have done in the past, when striving working class self-improvement was much more of a thing. (As were school music lessons.)
Lest we forget, Starmer is quite old, and a lot of the Britain he grew up in was rather different to today. In some ways that's good, but in others it isn't.
I would have loved to learn to play the flute at school, but I knew my parents couldn't afford it so never mentioned it. I took it up in my mid-twenties.
Good evening, everybody.
I was lucky that music lessons and rental of instruments was free in my local authority area. I wonder if they still are.
It sounds outlandish, but is it possible that Trump wins the White House, but the GOP lose the House and fall short in the Senate?
There's an orthodoxy on here that any normal sane Republican would win the Presidency at a canter - mainly because right-wing Brits such as the PB Tories would vote for a sane Republican but recoil from Trump. But I rather suspect that isn't so. I think Trump reaches and motivates a lot of voters that the rest of the GOP cannot touch.
Might be worth considering.
To an extent, Haley would have won far more Independents than Trump can, even if DeSantis and Pence would likely do worse with white working class and Independent voters than Trump.
Though had Trump gone 3rd party even Haley might have lost had she somehow managed to narrowly beat him in the GOP primaries
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
I saw that a couple of days ago, saw who was propagating it, and LOLed at the obvious shittiness. It's obviously just been invented to get at Walz. People who believe there is anything in this based on what we've seen so far are the same sort of people who build home-made rockets to prove the Earth is flat...
Particularly when the much better documented (aka 'real') sexual crimes of Trump are ignored by the same people.
"Ma, Ma, where's my Pa?" - Republicans before 1884 election
"Gone to the White House, ha! ha! ha!" - Democrats after 1884 election
I saw that a couple of days ago, saw who was propagating it, and LOLed at the obvious shittiness. It's obviously just been invented to get at Walz. People who believe there is anything in this based on what we've seen so far are the same sort of people who build home-made rockets to prove the Earth is flat...
Particularly when the much better documented (aka 'real') sexual crimes of Trump are ignored by the same people.
MAGA-land had been eagerly awaiting sordid allegations against Tim Walz today, reported by internet personality "DocNetYoutube."
But the release has already been undermined by the appearance of a cursor in a witness's key emails— suggesting DocNetYoutube wrote it himself.
Interesting focus group accounts of Kemi and Jenrick. Worth a look.
I've a hunch Kemi could be seriously bad news for Sir Keir, if these people are anyway representative. And I'm not really sure how Farage would manage - he could easily look like last week's news compared to someone as assertive, colourful and new. Not sure the odd gaffe would make much difference - in fact may even help. Authenticity and personality count.
Watched a CPF hustings online with both candidates this afternoon and both performed well. Clear desire for more local candidates and ensuring CCHQ workers all party members.
Kemi seemed to perform well in that focus group too but polling tends to suggest Jenrick narrowly favoured overall but we will see
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
They’re not proposing this.
The problem is that David Lammy is on the record as saying he’s sympathetic to these claims.
NYT (via Seattle Times) - Meteorologists face harassment, threats amid hurricane disinformation
A meteorologist based in Washington, D.C., was accused of helping the government cover up manipulating a hurricane. In Houston, a forecaster was repeatedly told to “do research” into the weather’s supposed nefarious origins. And a meteorologist for a television station in Lansing, Michigan, said she had received death threats.
“Murdering meteorologists won’t stop hurricanes,” wrote the forecaster in Michigan, Katie Nickolaou, in a social media post. “I can’t believe I just had to type that.”
PB MAGA-maniacs please explain?
Rather similar to paediatricians being confused with paedophiles, only more shooting the messenger.
Difficult to argue with this. The political fallout will be horrendous. But are they actually proposing this?
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott · 4h Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
They aren't. Lammy floated it as a possibility a while ago. Starmer has ruled it out despite some Caribbean leaders trying it on a bit.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Indeed, this is NOT 1997 in case leftwing PBers have not realised or even 2001.
Then Blair had double digit leads in post election polls in the former and comfortable leads after the latter election too, now Labour is already down to Brown 2010 levels and Starmer already polling worse than Badenoch and Jenrick on net approval ratings.
Blair was always comfortably ahead of Hague and IDS on net approval polling
Interesting focus group accounts of Kemi and Jenrick. Worth a look.
I've a hunch Kemi could be seriously bad news for Sir Keir, if these people are anyway representative. And I'm not really sure how Farage would manage - he could easily look like last week's news compared to someone as assertive, colourful and new. Not sure the odd gaffe would make much difference - in fact may even help. Authenticity and personality count.
Watched a CPF hustings online with both candidates this afternoon and both performed well. Clear desire for more local candidates and ensuring CCHQ workers all party members.
Kemi seemed to perform well in that focus group too but polling tends to suggest Jenrick narrowly favoured overall but we will see
Interesting focus group accounts of Kemi and Jenrick. Worth a look.
I've a hunch Kemi could be seriously bad news for Sir Keir, if these people are anyway representative. And I'm not really sure how Farage would manage - he could easily look like last week's news compared to someone as assertive, colourful and new. Not sure the odd gaffe would make much difference - in fact may even help. Authenticity and personality count.
Watched a CPF hustings online with both candidates this afternoon and both performed well. Clear desire for more local candidates and ensuring CCHQ workers all party members.
Kemi seemed to perform well in that focus group too but polling tends to suggest Jenrick narrowly favoured overall but we will see
I saw that a couple of days ago, saw who was propagating it, and LOLed at the obvious shittiness. It's obviously just been invented to get at Walz. People who believe there is anything in this based on what we've seen so far are the same sort of people who build home-made rockets to prove the Earth is flat...
Particularly when the much better documented (aka 'real') sexual crimes of Trump are ignored by the same people.
So, let me get this right... the public are in outcry because Elon Musk didn't get an investment summit invite, meaning Starmer is now finished? Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
Quite a lot, judging by Starmer’s appalling personal polling
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
That's largely based on the WFA cut, freebie gate, and *maybe* (for certain parts of the electorate) stuff like the Chagos Islands deal. I doubt barely more than a tenth of the electorate even know about 'Muskgate'.
I doubt 1 in 100 do
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
It might be hard to shift but the Tories seem intent on delivering either the walking slime Jenrick or the in need of anger management classes Badenoch as an alternative.
They will just have to be less bad than Starmer
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
I expect that whoever they pick now will be gone before the next election .
I’m not so sure. For the Tories to drop this leader the polls would have to be really bad for them
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Tories level pegging when basically no discernable figurehead is in charge and Starmer's team have depth charged their first 100 days.
Electing Jenrick will reverse that within weeks.
Badenoch? I honestly don't know. Could go either way.
Comments
I'm calling no.
Good evening, everybody.
In isolation, no. Although it does essentially restore the status quo ante of Hunt’s frankly unaffordable reductions.
The Conservatives have raised the
tax burden to a 70-year high. We
will ensure taxes on working people
are kept as low as possible. Labour
will not increase taxes on working
people, which is why we will not
increase National Insurance, the
basic, higher, or additional rates
of Income Tax, or VAT.
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf
He said the in England the NHS application is all done quickly on line with an appointment within 6 weeks
He said that Wales NHS is all paperwork and no online service and said if it was urgent to go privately at approx £5,500
As it so happens my wife does not drive at present, so she can wait but what an extraordinary difference between England NHS and Wales
Definitely going to plumb whole new depths of unpopularity
Its gone viral on social media
It’s not lethal because it’s old. But it is damaging
This is just be pretence of the worst kind. Gordon Brown pension dividend tactics.
12/10 for effort.
(oh, and I now need the same work done on the other eye. Wonder how long it will take this time...)
A “Levelling Up”.
Without that, everything looks haphazard, if not cruel and incompetent.
Although I don’t follow it as closely as I used to, I’m still a million times more interested in British politics than the average person.
I could not tell you what the big narrative is.
So far, that is exactly what we’re getting
There's an orthodoxy on here that any normal sane Republican would win the Presidency at a canter - mainly because right-wing Brits such as the PB Tories would vote for a sane Republican but recoil from Trump. But I rather suspect that isn't so. I think Trump reaches and motivates a lot of voters that the rest of the GOP cannot touch.
Might be worth considering.
What do you think about middle-aged men dyeing their hair to try and look younger?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/14/taliban-bans-all-images-of-living-things/
The narrative is that Labour spent 14 years in opposition and had no ideas during that time. And all they cared about when getting into office was immediately seizing all the perks and baubles as quickly as possible, and doing it with a sense of hideous entitlement
Policy wise it’s a desperate lukewarm hodgepodge of ill advised greenery, tiresome wokeness, foreign policy calamities, disapproving Puritanism and higher taxes
It is spectacularly bad. This is why Starmer’s popularity has dropped 49 points in 60 days. Almost a point a day, something never before achieved, from +11 to -38 in two months. The British voter is staring at this government in shocked disbelief
Off topic: for those still arguing that Labour has made a good start, this podcast is pretty damning: https://pca.st/episode/96f2fb1f-4435-4cf2-bccf-ee73bae4ed41.
New Economics Foundation are left wing but thoughtful - their judgement is worth listening to.
Two thoughts:
1) I wonder if there is a clever game going on - Labour are putting out messages that they are tightening belts everywhere, not putting up taxes etc. This is the narrative in the country. But actually, the budget changes the fiscal rules to borrow more, and IHT, Corporation Tax is hit hard to create space to make improvements on NHS and cost of living. Those who bother listening wail loudly, but it *may* not cut through. (I rate this about a 5% chance of being true).
2) All of the current angst about Labour being shit will be forgotten if within the next four years a narrative takes hold that 'national renewal' is actually starting to happen - investment and growth up, NHS gets a bit better, CoL issues recede. Labour can afford to be hated now if they pull through (I rate them doing this as about 25% at the moment, which may be generous).
If neither 1 nor 2 happen I think we're in dark electoral territory indeed.
I vividly remember reading, in biography of Will Rogers about a speech that WR gave to a small audience in his hometown of Claymore, Oklahoma about 100 years ago.
Will Rogers was THE big-name media celebrity of early 20th-century America. Of mixed Indian-White descent, he literally ran away from home to join the circus, he initally became famous as a cowboy rope-twirler of exceptional skill and showmanship.
Rogers then morphed into a New York stand-up comedian (he started telling jokes during lulls in his rope-twirling) who just repeated what he'd read that morning in the newspapers, whatever had struck him as funny (one way or another) in national news, mostly political. Before long, he was pounding out a HIGHLY popular newspaper columnist (top in USA) AND movie star (in movies starring characters closely modeled after himself.
He was critical and funny, but never (overtly) negative. EXCEPT for that speech in Claymore, delivered at the height of his career, when he was being "nominated" for POTUS on regular basis and was the (unofficial) mayor of Santa Monica CA (as leading movie star).
As I vividly recall (but don't have text handy) Will Rogers condemned the crimes of White Europeans against Native Americans directly, bittingly and indeed bitterly. He pulled no punches in stating his strong personal feelings on the injustices, disrespect, degredation and near-extermination of his Native ancestors and kinfolk.
Which like I said was NOT what people expected from Will Rogers, not hardly. NOT from the man who famously said, "I never met a man I didn't like"!
Speaking of politics . . .
"I belong to no organized political party - I'm a Democrat" Will Rogers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Will_Rogers
Centuries after the conquest whole swathes of northern England were still deserted because of 1066 and all that
The public seem very grumpy and unforgiving at the moment .
After all, a row about cats caused Leon to quit the site in anger for several days. And one dares not mention the imbroglio over Boris' weight. Few involved in that dispute emerged without scars.
The difficulty with that is, firstly, it costs money and Labour put themselves in a bit of a straitjacket - and pressures on spending mean it's an uphill battle anyway. Secondly it takes time - if by next summer Labour has some progress to shout about in key areas it'll be the clear message.
Thirdly, and this is entirely avoidable, it needs the public to cut you a bit of slack in the meantime so you have to look solidly competent and avoid needless missteps. You can't hammer home the idea you're quietly getting on with the job if every other interview requires you to justify something daft and self-inflicted.
“It’s time to tax jobs. Companies have been getting away with employing people for too long and the Labour Party is taking action to make it harder for them.”
Absolutely desperate stuff. What awareness of the summit does the man on the Clapham omnibus even have?
I have said it a few times but it really bears repeating - they had a whole summer to do the optimistic change routine, how great we are compared to the Tories, etc. Instead we got ban everything, freeze grannies and, oh, before we forget, everything is going to get even WORSE.
Apparently they are already
“blurring the eyes of fish pictured on restaurant menus”
Billy Sunday speaking in surprising detail on the taxation of liquor in, I think, the 1920s. A gem. Warnng: I think a sermon will follow.
https://youtu.be/jliqaw0Dv2E?t=11
For WR was also, in his way, a pioneer (broadly defined) in aviation (ditto)
from his wiki:
Rogers crusaded for aviation expansion and provided Americans with first-hand accounts of his world travels. . . . He took a strong, highly popular stand in favor of aviation, including a military air force of the sort his flying buddy General Billy Mitchell advocated. . . . He took a strong, highly popular stand in favor of aviation, including a military air force of the sort his flying buddy General Billy Mitchell advocated. . . .
Will Rogers became an advocate for the aviation industry after noticing advancements in Europe and befriending Charles Lindbergh . . . . Rogers' newspaper columns frequently emphasized the safety record, speed, and convenience of this means of transportation, and he helped shape public opinion on the subject.
In 1935, the famed aviator Wiley Post, an Oklahoman, became interested in surveying a mail-and-passenger air route from the West Coast to Russia. He attached a Lockheed Explorer wing to a Lockheed Orion fuselage, fitting floats for landing in the lakes of Alaska and Siberia. Rogers visited Post often at the airport in Burbank, California, while he was modifying the aircraft. He asked Post to fly him through Alaska in search of new material for his newspaper column. . . .
After making a test flight in July, Post and Rogers left Lake Washington in Renton, Washington in the Lockheed Orion-Explorer in early August and then made several stops in Alaska. While Post piloted the aircraft, Rogers wrote his columns on his typewriter. . . .
About 20 miles southwest of Point Barrow, having difficulty figuring their position due to bad weather, they landed in a lagoon to ask directions. On takeoff, the engine failed at low altitude, and the aircraft plunged into the lagoon, shearing off the right wing, and ended up inverted in the shallow water of the lagoon. Both men died instantly. . . .
SSI - Can testify to the fame and the respect that Will Rogers enjoyed among the generations of Americans alive when he died in 1935. And justly so.
The voter may not know the deets, but they can spot a dud prime minister
Number 9, here:
https://voicesofoklahoma.com/interviews/rogers-will/
The point is the air of “weird greedy inept hectoring hypocrite” has settled around Starmer. It will be hard to shift
Watching Starmer’s interview with Bloomberg, he more-or-less confirms to Steph Flanders that the basic rate of capital gains tax is going up, but just not to 39%
Like Henry Ford, Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, but a political nut job.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1845864554825125991
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Sunday
Will Rogers and Billy Sunday (a Republican btw) were both true sons of what was then called "the Middle West".
Mix of heritage and values of the East and the South (esp. for WR) with the exuberance and open-mindedness of the West.
And if it is clueless in rebuilding the public sector, its plans for the private sector are actually deeply harmful - more taxes, more spending, more regulation, more stagnation and eventually decline. Starmer says he's pro-growth and anti-red tape, but actually most of his actions suggest the opposite.
If they do survive this term and win another one, it will be because of an incompetent, divided opposition, not because they have a clue how to rebuild the country.
ALWAYS tempered (if that's the word, which I doubt) by economic calculations. AND governmental interventions, both ways.
Am thinking the same is also true (to some extent) re: business and technology (ditto visa versa).
Mostly, when you take people out of their field of expertise, we're as dumb as each other.
See SKS.
The bad news for Trump is that tightening polls = increased likelihood of a big turn-out. The bigger the turn-out the more likely Harris will win. Putting it simply - if the Dems turn out then the Dems win. That has not changed.
And so far that is looking quite easy. We shall see
Really. Must be before my time. I
Bizarre.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50695593
Eg Einstein, and Newton. And Musk
They are prone to terrible social gaffes, have a “weird” sense of humour (at best) and very often fail to read the room
Still monumental geniuses, nonetheless
I saw that a couple of days ago, saw who was propagating it, and LOLed at the obvious shittiness. It's obviously just been invented to get at Walz. People who believe there is anything in this based on what we've seen so far are the same sort of people who build home-made rockets to prove the Earth is flat...
Particularly when the much better documented (aka 'real') sexual crimes of Trump are ignored by the same people.
It’s just that X is now algorithmed to boost frankly fascist conspiracy theories, with the occasional bit of OnlyFans porn.
It still has around 100M users in the U.S.
Though had Trump gone 3rd party even Haley might have lost had she somehow managed to narrowly beat him in the GOP primaries
Right now they have already caught up and are level pegging with Labour, despite reform hitting 20%
It would need Labour to recover (obviously possible) or reform to overtake the Tories (also possible)
Another possibility is that the Tories go into the lead and stay there. And then they won’t have any desire to ditch Jenrick or Badenoch
Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
·
4h
Britain abolished slavery almost 200 years ago. It is completely ridiculous to expect today's taxpayers to pay reparations. If Labour goes down this route, all the while claiming they can't afford winter fuel allowance, they will be absolutely hammered
"Gone to the White House, ha! ha! ha!" - Democrats after 1884 election
But the release has already been undermined by the appearance of a cursor in a witness's key emails— suggesting DocNetYoutube wrote it himself.
https://x.com/willsommer/status/1845636644302426414
Kemi seemed to perform well in that focus group too but polling tends to suggest Jenrick narrowly favoured overall but we will see
The problem is that David Lammy is on the record as saying he’s sympathetic to these claims.
NOT West Point or similar (such as VMI) but rather a high(er)-class reformatory (US for borstal).
For same reason no doubt - as boys, Rogers & Trump were incoragable, at least as far as their fathers were concerned.
Then Blair had double digit leads in post election polls in the former and comfortable leads after the latter election too, now Labour is already down to Brown 2010 levels and Starmer already polling worse than Badenoch and Jenrick on net approval ratings.
Blair was always comfortably ahead of Hague and IDS on net approval polling
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50648-keir-starmer-now-as-unpopular-as-nigel-farage
Tories level pegging when basically no discernable figurehead is in charge and Starmer's team have depth charged their first 100 days.
Electing Jenrick will reverse that within weeks.
Badenoch? I honestly don't know. Could go either way.