The State of the Union, Week 5 – politicalbetting.com

Some movement this week, although still not much – and not very consistent.
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Some movement this week, although still not much – and not very consistent.
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The UK is now the first country to remove coal power from it's electricity mix - beating France..
The reason I ask is that there is a lot of ideology out there today that gets in the way of progress. Lots of entrenched positions and pride. Some people would rather see the ship go down than change their position.
What's interesting is the comparison to 1997. For all the confected nature of "Things can only get better", the activists waving Union flags in Downing St, the music, etc there was a real sense of national renewal, hope and optimism. Arguably it was a bit unfair as the economy that Labour inherited was on the up, and people were just sick of the Tories as much as anything else.
Fast forward to 2024. The Tories lost for a number of reasons, some self inflicted, others external. Any government challenged by Covid and then the energy crisis would struggle, and indeed most have around the world. Where is Jacinta Ardern now? Nicola Sturgeon? But they also failed to get the economy going enough the decline in the NHS is clear to see from the data.
And yet their is no sense of 1997 reborn. Starmer is dull as ditchwater and a huge hypocrite to boot. He takes the lawyers way out of any issues "No rules were broken" whether it is covid rules and a needless cuury and a pint to vast, vast sums of money to buy nice clothes for his wife. His wife, FFS.
And so the whole country is in a bad mood. The press are running things down left, right and centre. People tend to think that the country is more dangerous than ever, with more crime, when the reverse is true, but the 24/7 news culture needs feeding its diet of dismay.
Most people who use the NHS say they get great service from people who care yet also say how bad it is. There is a disconnect somewhere.
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
I guess that's a maybe to a yes with a very high bar.
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
We have unconscionable waiting lists. Millions upon millions. There needs to be some really creative thinking on funding of private treatment and tax offsets. Difficult when they have painted themselves into a £22 billion black hole. No light at the end of a tunnel is ever going to escape a black hole...
https://order-order.com/2024/09/30/simon-case-announces-resignation/
“It is inconceivable that her devotion to doctrine would ever persuade her to do anything which was plainly politically suicidal,” Utley observed.
Compare to
"Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right" Salvor Hardin (a character in Foundation by Isaac Asimov)
The referendum was a tragic forced choice between unacceptable alternatives.
I jest, of course.
(1): https://www.statista.com/statistics/236541/per-capita-health-expenditure-by-country/
(*) I know, I know...
"France's Mr Africa spills the beans on secret cash"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czrm8r1k8nzo
"The 2002 race provided Bourgi with another colourful story, when a representative of Burkinabè leader Blaise Compaoré arrived in Paris with a large sum of money concealed in djembe drums.
According to Bourgi, he accompanied the envoy to the Elysée Palace, where they were greeted by Chirac. They opened the sealed drums using a pair of scissors, upon which a rain of banknotes fell out."
It's not the sort of fudge I'd favour, but it's not impossible.
Does anyone still bother to say “envy of the world”? I don’t think so
We have tariff and quote free trade with the EU and have regulatory freedom so are able to benefit from avoiding any future unknown unknowns that the EU might get wrong. AI already looks like being an area where being outside the single market will be beneficial.
Pro: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWZwHqVOuiw
Con: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZdlH6bh6o0
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
The NHS is astonishing value for money, but sadly we still want more. Too often we want the NHS to heal us of our self-inflicted ills. Obesity treatments? Some are genuinely ill (Prader-Willi) others have no clue about health lifestyles. Extreme sports injuries (including things like skiing, but also rugby, football etc) should require extra insurance. Smoking related illness? Bottom of the list until you give up smoking.
Why not pay in the UK? My father has had a hip and knee done in the last two years, 15K each time.
When I asked him why he was moving he literally said: “shit weather and the NHS”
I imagine lower taxes help as well. He’s married to a nice Thai woman and they’ve two Anglo-Thai kids. He’s built himself a house there
Now we pay about the OECD average for healthcare yet get decidedly below average service and outcomes
But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
What's astonishing is that 1) The Tories increased health spending 2) The NHS is about as efficient as other health systems around the world 3) We spend a modest percentage of GDP on health (and much less than the US) 4) Our demographics are actually pretty healthy due to the massive immigration we've experienced (Korea and Japan are much, much worse).
Folks just need to face up to the fact we're a deeply unhealthy country and don't do enough to deal with it.
I was treated for Leukeamia back in 2012 with drugs that in the US are hideously expensive. Clearly, because its the NHS there was no bill for me.
Its also, sadly, a bit of a lottery. My folks live in a biggish village, have a GP surgery that they can easily get appointments on the day for. I live 13 miles away and struggle. Different hospitals do better or worse too.
Arguably though until you have experienced healthcare elsewhere properly, you can't compare easily. The economic numbers are only part of the picture.
On Kemi, shooting from the hip seems to be a problem with her having a really senior political future. The UK is about 25th from about 28 on measures of European maternity pay, which is even worse than we are on basic state pension.
Is it fair to call this Bercow Syndrome?
In fact, this is the bigger risk to the NHS. I run 40km a week, cycle to work, have a healthy BMI and chuck in loads of fruit and veg. I pay loads of tax to fund the NHS.
Yet when I need a dodgy mole looked at, or a quick operation to get me back to work properly, I'm sat behind months or years worth of people who have effectively maltreated their own bodies (and minds, sadly). It's not always their fault, yet I begrudge them. The social contract begins to break.
The dentistry is insanely good value compared to NHS dentistry. Does NHS dentistry still exist?
Like it or not, fair or not, that irks a lot of people
It’s no worse than the average NHS hospital. And the nurses are slimmer
This is where I go if I don’t want the luxury of private. This is a fair review on Tripadvisor
“I was in Bangkok for two days previously in Singapore for a long weekend. I'm from USA and live in a not sunny area. I haven't traveled to a sunny destination for several years so I forgot that I have a reaction to the sun sometimes. I woke up with a severely itchy rash on my feet and knew that I needed to go in for a steroid injection. I called the number listed for help from my travel insurance from World Nomads. They suggested Bangkok Christian hospital. I and was immediately given an appointment with a dermatologist. I was taken care of in less than 1 hour. Given the injection I needed plus some prescriptions for take along. The staff were courteous and efficient. And it only cost me the equivalent of $45 US. I am a nurse practitioner so I feel that I can give an insider's view of medical care. I worked in acute care settings for many years. I was quite pleased with my experience.”
That’s my experience of the same hospital. Is that better or worse then the average NHS experience?
It reminded me of the joke about an Army officer's review - "His men would not follow him, even out of curiosity."
Napoleon was the man who inspired incredible loyalty and tenacity in his army.
Anyway, the one thing we can all agree on is the US medical system is bad value for money.
Indeed my own family members views on immigration have been moderated somewhat since their health has declined.
What is the root cause of this? No time for exercise?
There should be a huge signs outside each hospital: DO NOT FEED THE
HORSESSTAFFI vividly recall a rather portly nurse at the GP telling me I was overweight, about 10 years ago. I was, but it largely body type (think big frame) combined with genetics (all my family struggle with weight - we tend to be apple shaped). At the time I was running 3 times a week and regularly doing half marathons, 10 miles races etc. My other markers were all excellent.
I bit my tongue rather than say anything, but the message to be healthy is probably better coming from someone walking the walk.
We're back to matters European it would seem. My view has long been it will be a Conservative Prime Minister who will one day (and I'm thinking decades from now) take us back into the European Union and said Prime Minister will only do so when it is unequivocally in the national interest to rejoin.
It clearly isn't now and it may not be for decades and the European Union we rejoin won't be the European Union that exists now - with those variables I could imagine a future Prime Minister seeking to join (or rejoin) a European Union more akin to the much-"loved" Common Market - basically the Single Market minus Freedom of Movement.
The EU is in effect still coming to terms with the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and with huge demographic and political changes on its southern border. It would have been so much easier had the Soviet Union still existed and the strong men of North Africa still endured but that's history for you.
As to this week's Parade of the Unelectables, one big speech, one big idea could flip this contest completely. Does anyone have a big idea? Does anyone have a clue? Redefine Conservatism for the 2030s without all the tired old populist and pseudo-Thatcherite nonsense - redefine Conservatism with a coherent approach to society, immigration, the young and the old in 20 minutes without deviation, hesitation, repetition and interruption?
Kenneth Williams could probably have done it....but then so could Derek Nimmo.
However I’m not sure locals would pay that $45 like an expat. Many would have insurance etc
This morning right-wing red wavers are claiming the PA poll average has flipped to Trump when not a single independent poll taken in the past month has Trump leading. The only polls showing Trump ahead are right-aligned poll working to push the poll average. It's ridiculous.
https://x.com/SimonWDC/status/1840702380414767528
Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Big Village, and Morning Consult, which feature heavily, are all junk pollsters.
https://www.livemint.com/industry/thailand-healthcare-thai-healthcare-public-health-life-expectancy-health-insurance-developing-country-11725530698359.html
(P.S. I didn't realise that MC were a junk pollster but happy to take your word for it)
A practise nurse suggesting I should lose some weight. Now, while that might have been true (in term of 15kgs), she could have literally lost 50% of her own body weight. Without running any risk of vanishing.
Given that I'd come back, the day before, from rowing 25 miles.....
Selzer, Emerson, Siena, Fox, Monmouth, Suffolk, Yougov, Quinnipiac, Pew, are the gold standard.
Second, the decision was taken long ago during the wasted Conservative years - could it have been stopped or reversed by the incoming Labour Government? Probably not as the decommissioning process started in 2022 and was nearly completed when the election happened.
Third, was it the Government's decision or was it EON UK's? Not sure but it's a cheap shot to lay the blame at Ed Miliband's door. One of my friends thinks there will be power cuts this winter - I'm much less convinced. It will be interesting to see what happens if we do get a prolonged spell of still cold weather but it's been years since we've had that and there's plenty of evidence of an increasingly turbulent and mobile atmosphere with plenty of energy to generate wind power.
Fourth, where I probably do agree with some on here is it's foolish to put all our eggs in the renewables basket - we should continue to use coal, nuclear and, dare I say it, investigate fracking to ensure we have other options in case the wind stops blowing or the sun stops shining or the tides stop turning (no doubt if any of that happens, Labour will get the blame).
Turns out 99.5% of Thais have universal health insurance. They get faster and better treatment than we get from the NHS - this is probably why their life expectancy (despite being a middle income country) is about to overtake life expectancy in the UK. Yet they only spend 6% of GDP on health
They also have loads of sunshine and delicious papaya salads, and way less crime
People who don’t travel much don’t realise how Britain is, relatively speaking, turning into a mismanaged toilet, with the 2nd most miserable population on earth
“My God, the nurses are fat”
The only people fatter than British nurses are British coppers
“What do they know of England, who only England know?”
It will be the full works. St Paul's for the funeral. The fourth plinth at Trafalgar Square. The back of the £5 note (lol cash). We'll rename Watts to Milis, and whisper "thanks Ed" when we turn on our heat pumps in the winter.
So yes they may be storing up trouble
Here he is singing “are we human, or are we bastard?”
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1840659469727916246?s=46
Actually quite a reasonably good looking candidate. Could imagine him acting a charming baddie in a crime drama.
Which is the problem with the "everything is a bit rubbish" narrative. It kind of is (especially if you strip London out of the averages), but that's a consequence of decisions taken over decades, not the last eight weeks or even the last eight years.
Completely OT but something of a public service announcement.
ANYONE WITH A PEANUT ALLERGY
Just had an email from my son's school passing on an alert from the Food Standards Agency
https://www.food.gov.uk/news-alerts/news/urgent-allergy-advice-mustard-ingredients-contaminated-with-peanuts
TLDR: If you have a peanut allergy then for now best to avoid food products with mustard ingredients. There is a long list of such products including fast food chain products linked in the article.
The only bit I would disagree with is about fracking. It is not suited to the UK and would not provide any meaningful additional gas supply. Even some of the companies who were previously investigating this now agree on this point.
Hmm. Its a shame he’s dodgy but he might be the best bet for the Tories
Mucarsel-Powell: +7%
Walz: +2%
Trump: -3%
Scott: -6%
Vance: -7%
Harris: -7%
Public Policy Polling / Sept 26, 2024
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1840569385859023358
I think developed societies end up paying a luxury tax on healthcare because companies are far too good at advertising and making lower middle class and working class people believe that unhealthy lifestyles are aspirational.
And if we had voted to remain in the EU, the forces for a full integration into The Project would have been immense.
From the Blob...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/
..Polls now show Vice President Harris leading Trump by about 4 points, according to the average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. But the race in the roughly half dozen battleground states is even closer, and a polling error like the ones in the past could mean Trump is in a stronger position to prevail than the data says.
But polling analysts say it’s not that simple.
“We don’t always see the misses in the same direction,” said Chris Jackson, the senior vice president of public affairs for Ipsos. “I can tell you that the polling industry has done substantial changes to how we do our surveys to try to account for what we think was driving those errors in 2020. So while there undoubtedly will be errors in the future, they’re probably going to be driven by different things and go in different directions.”
Pollsters have had a rough couple of presidential cycles in the Trump era, and it’s led to widespread skepticism of just how accurate their measurements are, even as news story after news story details the latest polling findings.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump was the underdog, first to Hillary Clinton and then to Joe Biden. In both cases, he outperformed most of his polls.
The first time, it was enough to win the Electoral College. The second time, Biden won, but it was a very tight race in a number of battleground states.
Pollsters acknowledge Trump’s rise has posed a new challenge for the industry trying to accurately track voters’ preferences, but they say methodologies have adjusted.
Jackson said the polling industry in 2020 and before looked to “reliable benchmarks” for sampling and weighting surveys, usually based on census data, to ensure pollsters had a representative sample. But pollsters now realize that trends were happening that demographics were not accounting for.
This led to a significant adoption of other factors such as party registration and past voting history for added political criteria for weighing results.
“There’s a bunch of different ways of doing it that are currently being used in the field, but that has been a relatively widespread shift in the last four years,” Jackson said. ..
Has anyone factchecked his claims in it?