Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
What right would we have to reject the Euro if we were going back in? Its surely fully committed if we want to get back in.
There are a lot of countries which are required to adopt the Euro, and they are all still dragging their feet and have not adopted it up to 20 years later.
You see I don't get this argument. We have known for years there are lots of countries in the EU who ignore bits of EU legislation, often very large and fundemental bits. But that is not who we are. It is thoroughly dishonest to say you are going to join an organisation, promise to abide by its rules - particularly when they integral to your right to join - and then plan in advance to ignore them.
I always find it disturbing and enlightenening when this is used as an argument by the pro-EU mob. They think so little of the organisation they are pushing to rejoin that they are already planning how to avoid or ignore its rules.
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Is that a yes or a no?
The reason I ask is that there is a lot of ideology out there today that gets in the way of progress. Lots of entrenched positions and pride. Some people would rather see the ship go down than change their position.
As I said if the evidence bar was met I'd be interested to see what rejoining might bring to the nation. I'm extremely sceptical about it though, the EU has managed in short order to regulate AI development out of the bloc due to simplistic fear mongering by people who don't actually understand the industry.
I guess that's a maybe to a yes with a very high bar.
Losing one small industry, however much of the flavour of the month, is utterly trivial compared with losing control of our monetary and exchange rate (and increasingly fiscal) policies if we rejoined and had to join the euro. The ERM catastrophe in the early 90s was bad enough but we were forced out in time to avoid irretrievable disaster. The single currency would be far more difficult to escape from.
Yes I don't see a future where we ever join the Eurozone. I don't think the BoE has done a very good job since ~2010 but it's still better than being in the EMU.
What I was surprised by was that the UK managed to get a trade deal that didn't force dynamic regulatory alignment in emerging industries. The UK is a huge threat to the EU now when it comes to emerging technology because they can't force us to adopt their shitty regulations.
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
What right would we have to reject the Euro if we were going back in? Its surely fully committed if we want to get back in.
There are a lot of countries which are required to adopt the Euro, and they are all still dragging their feet and have not adopted it up to 20 years later.
You see I don't get this argument. We have known for years there are lots of countries in the EU who ignore bits of EU legislation, often very large and fundemental bits. But that is not who we are. It is thoroughly dishonest to say you are going to join an organisation, promise to abide by its rules - particularly when they integral to your right to join - and then plan in advance to ignore them.
I always find it disturbing and enlightenening when this is used as an argument by the pro-EU mob. They think so little of the organisation they are pushing to rejoin that they are already planning how to avoid or ignore its rules.
I'm not part of the pro-EU mob, for the avoidance of doubt .
I'm probably currently part of the pro single-market, avoid the institutions mob at present.
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
What right would we have to reject the Euro if we were going back in? Its surely fully committed if we want to get back in.
There are a lot of countries which are required to adopt the Euro, and they are all still dragging their feet and have not adopted it up to 20 years later.
You see I don't get this argument. We have known for years there are lots of countries in the EU who ignore bits of EU legislation, often very large and fundemental bits. But that is not who we are. It is thoroughly dishonest to say you are going to join an organisation, promise to abide by its rules - particularly when they integral to your right to join - and then plan in advance to ignore them.
I always find it disturbing and enlightenening when this is used as an argument by the pro-EU mob. They think so little of the organisation they are pushing to rejoin that they are already planning how to avoid or ignore its rules.
Similarly the "it says that but it doesn't mean it" argument made about Ever Closer Union.
Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Total 649
So the only viable Government is a LibDem/Lab Coalition. Enthusiastic LibDem Cabinet Ministers partnered with tired Labour ones. Could work, I suppose,
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
If that film sucked any harder I would have orgasmed in the cinema.
I really want to go see it: that, and "The Substance". But I suspect both will be gone by the weekend...
I realised today that Cineworld was showing The Empire Strikes Back for one day. Yesterday. Dammit...
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Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Total 649
Interesting because absent tectonic plates that's likely to be the Conservatives best case. Which is not nearly good enough and they probably won't get their best case anyway (efficient electoral pact with Reform)
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
If that film sucked any harder I would have orgasmed in the cinema.
I really want to go see it: that, and "The Substance". But I suspect both will be gone by the weekend...
I realised today that Cineworld was showing The Empire Strikes Back for one day. Yesterday. Dammit...
The substance is a memorable watch. Dennis Pennis question to Demi Moore still applies but some of the nudity is not a turn on.
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
If that film sucked any harder I would have orgasmed in the cinema.
I really want to go see it: that, and "The Substance". But I suspect both will be gone by the weekend...
I realised today that Cineworld was showing The Empire Strikes Back for one day. Yesterday. Dammit...
The substance is a memorable watch. Dennis Pennis question to Demi Moore still applies but some of the nudity is not a turn on.
Pollsters: Don’t be so sure Trump will outperform our surveys
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/ ..Polls now show Vice President Harris leading Trump by about 4 points, according to the average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. But the race in the roughly half dozen battleground states is even closer, and a polling error like the ones in the past could mean Trump is in a stronger position to prevail than the data says. But polling analysts say it’s not that simple. “We don’t always see the misses in the same direction,” said Chris Jackson, the senior vice president of public affairs for Ipsos. “I can tell you that the polling industry has done substantial changes to how we do our surveys to try to account for what we think was driving those errors in 2020. So while there undoubtedly will be errors in the future, they’re probably going to be driven by different things and go in different directions.” Pollsters have had a rough couple of presidential cycles in the Trump era, and it’s led to widespread skepticism of just how accurate their measurements are, even as news story after news story details the latest polling findings. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump was the underdog, first to Hillary Clinton and then to Joe Biden. In both cases, he outperformed most of his polls. The first time, it was enough to win the Electoral College. The second time, Biden won, but it was a very tight race in a number of battleground states. Pollsters acknowledge Trump’s rise has posed a new challenge for the industry trying to accurately track voters’ preferences, but they say methodologies have adjusted. Jackson said the polling industry in 2020 and before looked to “reliable benchmarks” for sampling and weighting surveys, usually based on census data, to ensure pollsters had a representative sample. But pollsters now realize that trends were happening that demographics were not accounting for. This led to a significant adoption of other factors such as party registration and past voting history for added political criteria for weighing results. “There’s a bunch of different ways of doing it that are currently being used in the field, but that has been a relatively widespread shift in the last four years,” Jackson said. ..
They guessed at the weights in 2016 and got it wrong. So they adjusted. Then they guessed at the weights in 2020 and got it wrong. So they adjusted. Then they guessed at the weights in 2024...
There's no certain way of fixing the twin problems of differential non-response and differential turnout. People who are going to vote for Trump don't talk to pollsters. We suspect, but do not know, that turnout for Harris will be large, but we don't know. Pollsters fill out the gaps with guesses. They are educated guesses carefully made, but they don't know. They might be right. They may not.
Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
From the outside, Kemi’s maternity pay gaffe and Jenrick’s inability to answer questions on the mystery £75k donation both look petty bad, yet they remain the betting favourites?
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Is that a yes or a no?
The reason I ask is that there is a lot of ideology out there today that gets in the way of progress. Lots of entrenched positions and pride. Some people would rather see the ship go down than change their position.
As I said if the evidence bar was met I'd be interested to see what rejoining might bring to the nation. I'm extremely sceptical about it though, the EU has managed in short order to regulate AI development out of the bloc due to simplistic fear mongering by people who don't actually understand the industry.
I guess that's a maybe to a yes with a very high bar.
Losing one small industry, however much of the flavour of the month, is utterly trivial compared with losing control of our monetary and exchange rate (and increasingly fiscal) policies if we rejoined and had to join the euro. The ERM catastrophe in the early 90s was bad enough but we were forced out in time to avoid irretrievable disaster. The single currency would be far more difficult to escape from.
Yes I don't see a future where we ever join the Eurozone. I don't think the BoE has done a very good job since ~2010 but it's still better than being in the EMU.
What I was surprised by was that the UK managed to get a trade deal that didn't force dynamic regulatory alignment in emerging industries. The UK is a huge threat to the EU now when it comes to emerging technology because they can't force us to adopt their shitty regulations.
In the longer run the issue is not whether we would ever join the Euro (no we wouldn't, and it isn't happening without a referendum) but whether the Eurozone itself is stable enough to survive. The Euro was always a bonkers idea, since it sets 2 entities into logical contradiction - the interests of the nation state (eg France) and the interests of the fiscal state (the Eurozone).
In the end you have to decide whether keep the nation state and abandon the Euro, or keep the Euro and abandon the nation state.
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
Would Joe Public care much nowadays if we did join the Euro? As no-one uses cash anymore I doubt the attachment to 'The Pound' is what is was twenty years ago when people still used coloured paper and scraps of metal as a form of barter.
Point of order
You may not use cash anymore but millions do every day
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
I've seen it. Sadly it's as much of a trainwreck as people say it is.
Even though the message is a sort of utopian futurism the whole thing feels more like someone rewrote The Fountainhead (Adam Driver is a knock-off Roark character who can, inexplicably, stop time), gave it a bit of Blade Runner meets Ancient Rome set dressing, and cut six hours of intended footage into two hours, meaning there's little in the way of character development and plot points are either glossed over or left hanging.
It's a mad hodgepodge of ideas that can only really make sense if you're very, very stoned.
Also saw The Outrun recently. That was a fantastic movie, brilliantly written and acted, and very moving. Well worth watching while it's still in cinemas. It also cost 1/10th of Megalopolis to make...
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
If that film sucked any harder I would have orgasmed in the cinema.
I really want to go see it: that, and "The Substance". But I suspect both will be gone by the weekend...
I realised today that Cineworld was showing The Empire Strikes Back for one day. Yesterday. Dammit...
The substance is a memorable watch. Dennis Pennis question to Demi Moore still applies but some of the nudity is not a turn on.
One of the best reviews of "The Bone Tomahawk" was something along the lines of "people seemed to like it but one man was split"
Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Total 649
Interesting because absent tectonic plates that's likely to be the Conservatives best case. Which is not nearly good enough and they probably won't get their best case anyway (efficient electoral pact with Reform)
A pact with Reform is a message to the millions of centrists who have abandoned the Tories that it is not yet safe to come back. There is plenty of scope for the LDs to work on this.
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
The consensus is that it's a train wreck. The budget is too big, the script too incoherent, the director too stoned (allegedly). Still at least FFC can reassure himself it's not as shit as "Napoleon"
If that film sucked any harder I would have orgasmed in the cinema.
I really want to go see it: that, and "The Substance". But I suspect both will be gone by the weekend...
I realised today that Cineworld was showing The Empire Strikes Back for one day. Yesterday. Dammit...
A tip for The Substance if you do catch it - probably not one you want to take food into the screening for.
Reminded me of Cronenberg with a few little homages to Kubrick too. It was schlocky and extreme, and the messaging wasn’t subtle, but I did admire the fact it just went for it and it was well shot. And Demi Moore was very good.
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
Would Joe Public care much nowadays if we did join the Euro? As no-one uses cash anymore I doubt the attachment to 'The Pound' is what is was twenty years ago when people still used coloured paper and scraps of metal as a form of barter.
Point of order
You may not use cash anymore but millions do every day
And even Joe Public knows that the outfit that controls your currency is in fact the most powerful outfit governing you, and Joe Public wants that to be the outfit he can vote in and vote out again.
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Says it all about the present conservative party and membership
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
Would Joe Public care much nowadays if we did join the Euro? As no-one uses cash anymore I doubt the attachment to 'The Pound' is what is was twenty years ago when people still used coloured paper and scraps of metal as a form of barter.
Point of order
You may not use cash anymore but millions do every day
In our small town we have a weekly toe-nail cutting clinic for the elderly ..... such as yours truly. Cash only. One of these days I'm going to try offering a card. Or my phone. I reckon the folk who run the till will have a fit.
I pay with card down at the pub! Even for single pints (£4.70)
What's interesting is the comparison to 1997. For all the confected nature of "Things can only get better", the activists waving Union flags in Downing St, the music, etc there was a real sense of national renewal, hope and optimism. Arguably it was a bit unfair as the economy that Labour inherited was on the up, and people were just sick of the Tories as much as anything else. Fast forward to 2024. The Tories lost for a number of reasons, some self inflicted, others external. Any government challenged by Covid and then the energy crisis would struggle, and indeed most have around the world. Where is Jacinta Ardern now? Nicola Sturgeon? But they also failed to get the economy going enough the decline in the NHS is clear to see from the data. And yet their is no sense of 1997 reborn. Starmer is dull as ditchwater and a huge hypocrite to boot. He takes the lawyers way out of any issues "No rules were broken" whether it is covid rules and a needless cuury and a pint to vast, vast sums of money to buy nice clothes for his wife. His wife, FFS.
And so the whole country is in a bad mood. The press are running things down left, right and centre. People tend to think that the country is more dangerous than ever, with more crime, when the reverse is true, but the 24/7 news culture needs feeding its diet of dismay.
Most people who use the NHS say they get great service from people who care yet also say how bad it is. There is a disconnect somewhere.
When people finally get treated by the NHS, they are generally happy enough with the serice they get. But many months in pain before they can get the process started is going to wear down the most enthusiastic Covid pan-basher.
We have unconscionable waiting lists. Millions upon millions. There needs to be some really creative thinking on funding of private treatment and tax offsets. Difficult when they have painted themselves into a £22 billion black hole. No light at the end of a tunnel is ever going to escape a black hole...
I agree with this. The evidence is pretty stark that the Tories dropped the bollock way before covid on waiting times. Add in an ever ageing and sicker patient cohort and you have trouble looming.
I have friends emigrating - in part - BECAUSE the NHS is so crap where they live. That’s how bad it is. The NHS is now a reason to LEAVE the UK
Does anyone still bother to say “envy of the world”? I don’t think so
So is their plan to pay privately overseas? Or just take out the required medical insurance?
The NHS is astonishing value for money, but sadly we still want more. Too often we want the NHS to heal us of our self-inflicted ills. Obesity treatments? Some are genuinely ill (Prader-Willi) others have no clue about health lifestyles. Extreme sports injuries (including things like skiing, but also rugby, football etc) should require extra insurance. Smoking related illness? Bottom of the list until you give up smoking.
I disagree on sports injuries - we desperately need more people to be active.
In fact, this is the bigger risk to the NHS. I run 40km a week, cycle to work, have a healthy BMI and chuck in loads of fruit and veg. I pay loads of tax to fund the NHS.
Yet when I need a dodgy mole looked at, or a quick operation to get me back to work properly, I'm sat behind months or years worth of people who have effectively maltreated their own bodies (and minds, sadly). It's not always their fault, yet I begrudge them. The social contract begins to break.
That's interesting. Some of that is covered I think by my Healthcare Cash Plan, and I can go private, which is the one form of medical insurance (ish) that is worth it for me now, given that they do not exclude the impact pre-existing conditions (diabetes can be argued to be affecting pretty much anything serious). I use glasses and dentist every year, so the rest is mainly a bonus.
I pay £31* a month at present, and for that I get £220 per rolling 12 months for optical, £200 a for dental, a personal accident policy (eg £20k if I die, £1000 towards dental trauma if I break my teeth including in sport). There's all sorts of therapists in there too such as podiatrists and chiropodists (£150), practitioners eg physios, osteopath, acupuncture (£450), specialists/investigations (£600), health screening (£300), £600 if I have or adopt a baby, £40 a day when I am an in or outpatient, and other stuff.
My cashplan is linked below, and here is the range of benefits as my photo quota:
They are run by a fascinating set of institutions which existed before the NHS, and were generally "pay a penny a week and get a Dr when you need one" type programmes resourced by medics outside their time spent at paid-for-hospitals treating the well-off. Mine is called HSF- the Hospital Saturday Fund. They have now found a new role, and offer plans tailored to different groups - mine is individual and no dependents.
Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Total 649
Interesting because absent tectonic plates that's likely to be the Conservatives best case. Which is not nearly good enough and they probably won't get their best case anyway (efficient electoral pact with Reform)
The UK is now the first country to remove coal power from it's electricity mix - beating France..
Let's all just remember that it was under a Labour government, a Labour government, that the last coal powered power station in this country closed.
First, it closes at midnight tonight so strictly speaking, it hasn't closed or ceased power generation yet.
Second, the decision was taken long ago during the wasted Conservative years - could it have been stopped or reversed by the incoming Labour Government? Probably not as the decommissioning process started in 2022 and was nearly completed when the election happened.
Third, was it the Government's decision or was it EON UK's? Not sure but it's a cheap shot to lay the blame at Ed Miliband's door. One of my friends thinks there will be power cuts this winter - I'm much less convinced. It will be interesting to see what happens if we do get a prolonged spell of still cold weather but it's been years since we've had that and there's plenty of evidence of an increasingly turbulent and mobile atmosphere with plenty of energy to generate wind power.
Fourth, where I probably do agree with some on here is it's foolish to put all our eggs in the renewables basket - we should continue to use coal, nuclear and, dare I say it, investigate fracking to ensure we have other options in case the wind stops blowing or the sun stops shining or the tides stop turning (no doubt if any of that happens, Labour will get the blame).
That's an incredibly serious answer to an entirely unserious post. I thought the echoes of Kinnock's great speech about a Labour council handing out redundancy notes by taxi was a hint in that direction. I will try to be more po faced in future.
What's interesting is the comparison to 1997. For all the confected nature of "Things can only get better", the activists waving Union flags in Downing St, the music, etc there was a real sense of national renewal, hope and optimism. Arguably it was a bit unfair as the economy that Labour inherited was on the up, and people were just sick of the Tories as much as anything else. Fast forward to 2024. The Tories lost for a number of reasons, some self inflicted, others external. Any government challenged by Covid and then the energy crisis would struggle, and indeed most have around the world. Where is Jacinta Ardern now? Nicola Sturgeon? But they also failed to get the economy going enough the decline in the NHS is clear to see from the data. And yet their is no sense of 1997 reborn. Starmer is dull as ditchwater and a huge hypocrite to boot. He takes the lawyers way out of any issues "No rules were broken" whether it is covid rules and a needless cuury and a pint to vast, vast sums of money to buy nice clothes for his wife. His wife, FFS.
And so the whole country is in a bad mood. The press are running things down left, right and centre. People tend to think that the country is more dangerous than ever, with more crime, when the reverse is true, but the 24/7 news culture needs feeding its diet of dismay.
Most people who use the NHS say they get great service from people who care yet also say how bad it is. There is a disconnect somewhere.
When people finally get treated by the NHS, they are generally happy enough with the serice they get. But many months in pain before they can get the process started is going to wear down the most enthusiastic Covid pan-basher.
We have unconscionable waiting lists. Millions upon millions. There needs to be some really creative thinking on funding of private treatment and tax offsets. Difficult when they have painted themselves into a £22 billion black hole. No light at the end of a tunnel is ever going to escape a black hole...
I agree with this. The evidence is pretty stark that the Tories dropped the bollock way before covid on waiting times. Add in an ever ageing and sicker patient cohort and you have trouble looming.
I have friends emigrating - in part - BECAUSE the NHS is so crap where they live. That’s how bad it is. The NHS is now a reason to LEAVE the UK
Does anyone still bother to say “envy of the world”? I don’t think so
So is their plan to pay privately overseas? Or just take out the required medical insurance?
The NHS is astonishing value for money, but sadly we still want more. Too often we want the NHS to heal us of our self-inflicted ills. Obesity treatments? Some are genuinely ill (Prader-Willi) others have no clue about health lifestyles. Extreme sports injuries (including things like skiing, but also rugby, football etc) should require extra insurance. Smoking related illness? Bottom of the list until you give up smoking.
I disagree on sports injuries - we desperately need more people to be active.
In fact, this is the bigger risk to the NHS. I run 40km a week, cycle to work, have a healthy BMI and chuck in loads of fruit and veg. I pay loads of tax to fund the NHS.
Yet when I need a dodgy mole looked at, or a quick operation to get me back to work properly, I'm sat behind months or years worth of people who have effectively maltreated their own bodies (and minds, sadly). It's not always their fault, yet I begrudge them. The social contract begins to break.
That's interesting. Most of that is covered I think by my Healthcare Cash Plan, which is the one form of medical insurance (ish) that is worth it for me now, given that they do not exclude the impact pre-existing conditions (diabetes can be arguoed to be affecting pretty much anything serious).
I pay £31* a month at present, and for that I get £220 per rolling 12 months for optical, £200 a for dental, a personal accident policy (eg £20k if I die, £1000 towards dental trauma if I break my teeth including in sport). There's all sorts of therapists in there too such as podiatrists and chiropodists (£150), practitioners eg physios (£600), health screening (£300), £600 if I have or adopt a baby, £40 a day when I am an in or outpatient, and other stuff.
My cashplan is linked below, and here is the range of benefits as my photo quota:
They are run by a fascinating set of institutions which existed before the NHS, and were generally "pay a penny a week and get a Dr when you need one" programmes reosurced by medics outside their time spent at paid-for-hospitals treating the well-off. Mine is called HSF- the Hospital Saturday Fund. They have now found a new role, and offer plans tailored to different groups - mine is individual and no dependents.
* Although I'm just about to upgrade the level to reflect my new (private) dentist who has just presented me with an estimate of £500+ for 2 fillings.
This is a good example, in Thailand 2 fillings would cost maybe £100 max and the dentistry would be superb
Dentistry is so much cheaper there, once you get into major dental work - crowns etc - it is better to fly to Thailand and have it done and stay in a lovely hotel and have a bit of a holiday in the sun; the cost of all that will still be cheaper than the dental work alone in the UK
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
The Royal Bethlehem Hospital also used to be box office.
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Says it all about the present conservative party and membership
Further away from office than ever
Quite some distance from reality too, I should say.
Lord Ashcroft has much to say about this in his latest book...or so I hear.
The problem is that all the poll averages are affected by junk polling.
Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Big Village, and Morning Consult, which feature heavily, are all junk pollsters.
Why I’ve said for ages you have to ignore American polling. The run up to the election is about pushing and positioning, not polling. Just before the election there will be a polling competition, to see who gets bragging rights for getting the result. Until then, ignore hard.
What's interesting is the comparison to 1997. For all the confected nature of "Things can only get better", the activists waving Union flags in Downing St, the music, etc there was a real sense of national renewal, hope and optimism. Arguably it was a bit unfair as the economy that Labour inherited was on the up, and people were just sick of the Tories as much as anything else. Fast forward to 2024. The Tories lost for a number of reasons, some self inflicted, others external. Any government challenged by Covid and then the energy crisis would struggle, and indeed most have around the world. Where is Jacinta Ardern now? Nicola Sturgeon? But they also failed to get the economy going enough the decline in the NHS is clear to see from the data. And yet their is no sense of 1997 reborn. Starmer is dull as ditchwater and a huge hypocrite to boot. He takes the lawyers way out of any issues "No rules were broken" whether it is covid rules and a needless cuury and a pint to vast, vast sums of money to buy nice clothes for his wife. His wife, FFS.
And so the whole country is in a bad mood. The press are running things down left, right and centre. People tend to think that the country is more dangerous than ever, with more crime, when the reverse is true, but the 24/7 news culture needs feeding its diet of dismay.
Most people who use the NHS say they get great service from people who care yet also say how bad it is. There is a disconnect somewhere.
When people finally get treated by the NHS, they are generally happy enough with the serice they get. But many months in pain before they can get the process started is going to wear down the most enthusiastic Covid pan-basher.
We have unconscionable waiting lists. Millions upon millions. There needs to be some really creative thinking on funding of private treatment and tax offsets. Difficult when they have painted themselves into a £22 billion black hole. No light at the end of a tunnel is ever going to escape a black hole...
I agree with this. The evidence is pretty stark that the Tories dropped the bollock way before covid on waiting times. Add in an ever ageing and sicker patient cohort and you have trouble looming.
I have friends emigrating - in part - BECAUSE the NHS is so crap where they live. That’s how bad it is. The NHS is now a reason to LEAVE the UK
Does anyone still bother to say “envy of the world”? I don’t think so
So is their plan to pay privately overseas? Or just take out the required medical insurance?
The NHS is astonishing value for money, but sadly we still want more. Too often we want the NHS to heal us of our self-inflicted ills. Obesity treatments? Some are genuinely ill (Prader-Willi) others have no clue about health lifestyles. Extreme sports injuries (including things like skiing, but also rugby, football etc) should require extra insurance. Smoking related illness? Bottom of the list until you give up smoking.
I disagree on sports injuries - we desperately need more people to be active.
In fact, this is the bigger risk to the NHS. I run 40km a week, cycle to work, have a healthy BMI and chuck in loads of fruit and veg. I pay loads of tax to fund the NHS.
Yet when I need a dodgy mole looked at, or a quick operation to get me back to work properly, I'm sat behind months or years worth of people who have effectively maltreated their own bodies (and minds, sadly). It's not always their fault, yet I begrudge them. The social contract begins to break.
That's interesting. Some of that is covered I think by my Healthcare Cash Plan, and I can go private, which is the one form of medical insurance (ish) that is worth it for me now, given that they do not exclude the impact pre-existing conditions (diabetes can be argued to be affecting pretty much anything serious). I use glasses and dentist every year, so the rest is mainly a bonus.
I pay £31* a month at present, and for that I get £220 per rolling 12 months for optical, £200 a for dental, a personal accident policy (eg £20k if I die, £1000 towards dental trauma if I break my teeth including in sport). There's all sorts of therapists in there too such as podiatrists and chiropodists (£150), practitioners eg physios, osteopath, acupuncture (£450), specialists/investigations (£600), health screening (£300), £600 if I have or adopt a baby, £40 a day when I am an in or outpatient, and other stuff.
My cashplan is linked below, and here is the range of benefits as my photo quota:
They are run by a fascinating set of institutions which existed before the NHS, and were generally "pay a penny a week and get a Dr when you need one" type programmes resourced by medics outside their time spent at paid-for-hospitals treating the well-off. Mine is called HSF- the Hospital Saturday Fund. They have now found a new role, and offer plans tailored to different groups - mine is individual and no dependents.
* Although I'm just about to upgrade the level to reflect my new (private) dentist who has just presented me with an estimate of £500+ for 2 fillings.
Interesting.
MInd, when my mum died I discovered she had been paying into some sort of healtdh protection cover scheme, the kind with glitzy paperwork in multiple fonts and frilly borders. Mrs Carnyx had a look at the paperwork and commented that the rewards were in inverse proportion to the probability of the condition happening ...
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Says it all about the present conservative party and membership
Further away from office than ever
Quite some distance from reality too, I should say.
Lord Ashcroft has much to say about this in his latest book...or so I hear.
What's interesting is the comparison to 1997. For all the confected nature of "Things can only get better", the activists waving Union flags in Downing St, the music, etc there was a real sense of national renewal, hope and optimism. Arguably it was a bit unfair as the economy that Labour inherited was on the up, and people were just sick of the Tories as much as anything else. Fast forward to 2024. The Tories lost for a number of reasons, some self inflicted, others external. Any government challenged by Covid and then the energy crisis would struggle, and indeed most have around the world. Where is Jacinta Ardern now? Nicola Sturgeon? But they also failed to get the economy going enough the decline in the NHS is clear to see from the data. And yet their is no sense of 1997 reborn. Starmer is dull as ditchwater and a huge hypocrite to boot. He takes the lawyers way out of any issues "No rules were broken" whether it is covid rules and a needless cuury and a pint to vast, vast sums of money to buy nice clothes for his wife. His wife, FFS.
And so the whole country is in a bad mood. The press are running things down left, right and centre. People tend to think that the country is more dangerous than ever, with more crime, when the reverse is true, but the 24/7 news culture needs feeding its diet of dismay.
Most people who use the NHS say they get great service from people who care yet also say how bad it is. There is a disconnect somewhere.
When people finally get treated by the NHS, they are generally happy enough with the serice they get. But many months in pain before they can get the process started is going to wear down the most enthusiastic Covid pan-basher.
We have unconscionable waiting lists. Millions upon millions. There needs to be some really creative thinking on funding of private treatment and tax offsets. Difficult when they have painted themselves into a £22 billion black hole. No light at the end of a tunnel is ever going to escape a black hole...
I agree with this. The evidence is pretty stark that the Tories dropped the bollock way before covid on waiting times. Add in an ever ageing and sicker patient cohort and you have trouble looming.
I have friends emigrating - in part - BECAUSE the NHS is so crap where they live. That’s how bad it is. The NHS is now a reason to LEAVE the UK
Does anyone still bother to say “envy of the world”? I don’t think so
So is their plan to pay privately overseas? Or just take out the required medical insurance?
The NHS is astonishing value for money, but sadly we still want more. Too often we want the NHS to heal us of our self-inflicted ills. Obesity treatments? Some are genuinely ill (Prader-Willi) others have no clue about health lifestyles. Extreme sports injuries (including things like skiing, but also rugby, football etc) should require extra insurance. Smoking related illness? Bottom of the list until you give up smoking.
I disagree on sports injuries - we desperately need more people to be active.
In fact, this is the bigger risk to the NHS. I run 40km a week, cycle to work, have a healthy BMI and chuck in loads of fruit and veg. I pay loads of tax to fund the NHS.
Yet when I need a dodgy mole looked at, or a quick operation to get me back to work properly, I'm sat behind months or years worth of people who have effectively maltreated their own bodies (and minds, sadly). It's not always their fault, yet I begrudge them. The social contract begins to break.
That's interesting. Most of that is covered I think by my Healthcare Cash Plan, which is the one form of medical insurance (ish) that is worth it for me now, given that they do not exclude the impact pre-existing conditions (diabetes can be arguoed to be affecting pretty much anything serious).
I pay £31* a month at present, and for that I get £220 per rolling 12 months for optical, £200 a for dental, a personal accident policy (eg £20k if I die, £1000 towards dental trauma if I break my teeth including in sport). There's all sorts of therapists in there too such as podiatrists and chiropodists (£150), practitioners eg physios (£600), health screening (£300), £600 if I have or adopt a baby, £40 a day when I am an in or outpatient, and other stuff.
My cashplan is linked below, and here is the range of benefits as my photo quota:
They are run by a fascinating set of institutions which existed before the NHS, and were generally "pay a penny a week and get a Dr when you need one" programmes reosurced by medics outside their time spent at paid-for-hospitals treating the well-off. Mine is called HSF- the Hospital Saturday Fund. They have now found a new role, and offer plans tailored to different groups - mine is individual and no dependents.
* Although I'm just about to upgrade the level to reflect my new (private) dentist who has just presented me with an estimate of £500+ for 2 fillings.
This is a good example, in Thailand 2 fillings would cost maybe £100 max and the dentistry would be superb
Dentistry is so much cheaper there, once you get into major dental work - crowns etc - it is better to fly to Thailand and have it done and stay in a lovely hotel and have a bit of a holiday in the sun; the cost of all that will still be cheaper than the dental work alone in the UK
I like my practitioners to be local !
It is interesting is that my dentist's quote includes a column for "what you would pay under Denplan" to sell me their favourite policy gently. Mum moved from an HCP to Denplan, and eventually it became very expensive indeed compared to the things she actually needed.
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Says it all about the present conservative party and membership
Further away from office than ever
Quite some distance from reality too, I should say.
Lord Ashcroft has much to say about this in his latest book...or so I hear.
Even more to say about Sir Keir, I hear.
True, LG, although Labour not looking for a new leader just yet.
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Or they are paying their shilling to gawp at Bedlam...
What's interesting is the comparison to 1997. For all the confected nature of "Things can only get better", the activists waving Union flags in Downing St, the music, etc there was a real sense of national renewal, hope and optimism. Arguably it was a bit unfair as the economy that Labour inherited was on the up, and people were just sick of the Tories as much as anything else. Fast forward to 2024. The Tories lost for a number of reasons, some self inflicted, others external. Any government challenged by Covid and then the energy crisis would struggle, and indeed most have around the world. Where is Jacinta Ardern now? Nicola Sturgeon? But they also failed to get the economy going enough the decline in the NHS is clear to see from the data. And yet their is no sense of 1997 reborn. Starmer is dull as ditchwater and a huge hypocrite to boot. He takes the lawyers way out of any issues "No rules were broken" whether it is covid rules and a needless cuury and a pint to vast, vast sums of money to buy nice clothes for his wife. His wife, FFS.
And so the whole country is in a bad mood. The press are running things down left, right and centre. People tend to think that the country is more dangerous than ever, with more crime, when the reverse is true, but the 24/7 news culture needs feeding its diet of dismay.
Most people who use the NHS say they get great service from people who care yet also say how bad it is. There is a disconnect somewhere.
When people finally get treated by the NHS, they are generally happy enough with the serice they get. But many months in pain before they can get the process started is going to wear down the most enthusiastic Covid pan-basher.
We have unconscionable waiting lists. Millions upon millions. There needs to be some really creative thinking on funding of private treatment and tax offsets. Difficult when they have painted themselves into a £22 billion black hole. No light at the end of a tunnel is ever going to escape a black hole...
I agree with this. The evidence is pretty stark that the Tories dropped the bollock way before covid on waiting times. Add in an ever ageing and sicker patient cohort and you have trouble looming.
I have friends emigrating - in part - BECAUSE the NHS is so crap where they live. That’s how bad it is. The NHS is now a reason to LEAVE the UK
Does anyone still bother to say “envy of the world”? I don’t think so
So is their plan to pay privately overseas? Or just take out the required medical insurance?
The NHS is astonishing value for money, but sadly we still want more. Too often we want the NHS to heal us of our self-inflicted ills. Obesity treatments? Some are genuinely ill (Prader-Willi) others have no clue about health lifestyles. Extreme sports injuries (including things like skiing, but also rugby, football etc) should require extra insurance. Smoking related illness? Bottom of the list until you give up smoking.
I disagree on sports injuries - we desperately need more people to be active.
In fact, this is the bigger risk to the NHS. I run 40km a week, cycle to work, have a healthy BMI and chuck in loads of fruit and veg. I pay loads of tax to fund the NHS.
Yet when I need a dodgy mole looked at, or a quick operation to get me back to work properly, I'm sat behind months or years worth of people who have effectively maltreated their own bodies (and minds, sadly). It's not always their fault, yet I begrudge them. The social contract begins to break.
That's interesting. Some of that is covered I think by my Healthcare Cash Plan, and I can go private, which is the one form of medical insurance (ish) that is worth it for me now, given that they do not exclude the impact pre-existing conditions (diabetes can be argued to be affecting pretty much anything serious). I use glasses and dentist every year, so the rest is mainly a bonus.
I pay £31* a month at present, and for that I get £220 per rolling 12 months for optical, £200 a for dental, a personal accident policy (eg £20k if I die, £1000 towards dental trauma if I break my teeth including in sport). There's all sorts of therapists in there too such as podiatrists and chiropodists (£150), practitioners eg physios, osteopath, acupuncture (£450), specialists/investigations (£600), health screening (£300), £600 if I have or adopt a baby, £40 a day when I am an in or outpatient, and other stuff.
My cashplan is linked below, and here is the range of benefits as my photo quota:
They are run by a fascinating set of institutions which existed before the NHS, and were generally "pay a penny a week and get a Dr when you need one" type programmes resourced by medics outside their time spent at paid-for-hospitals treating the well-off. Mine is called HSF- the Hospital Saturday Fund. They have now found a new role, and offer plans tailored to different groups - mine is individual and no dependents.
* Although I'm just about to upgrade the level to reflect my new (private) dentist who has just presented me with an estimate of £500+ for 2 fillings.
Interesting.
MInd, when my mum died I discovered she had been paying into some sort of healtdh protection cover scheme, the kind with glitzy paperwork in multiple fonts and frilly borders. Mrs Carnyx had a look at the paperwork and commented that the rewards were in inverse proportion to the probability of the condition happening ...
I haven't got my head around how the finances add up, and I've had one of these since childhood with a break in the middle.
Either there's a tax break in there somewhere, or it relies on quite a lot of people not taking care to measure their costs against their benefits used. Money Saving Expert has good advice.
Before I switched to this one I had one called Westfield which came with a wide set of discounts including 10% off at Wickes, which stacked with the Wickes 10% trade discount (which they hand out like lollipops) and saved me £1000+ since I was renovating a house. The current one only gives 5%.
I can self-certify or self-refer for most things. One difference I have noticed is that my previous one had a full online operation, where as this one have online payments and things but claim and paperwork have to go via email attachments of fill-in-PDF forms. They just run a tighter ship on the hospital based ones and larger claims.
I was hoping to keep the heating off until October. I fear I will have to relent.
I’m not sure if it’s just the fact that the temperatures have changed so quickly, but this cold snap has really hit me for six. I usually rather pride myself on dragging out the knitwear and the extra blanket and holding out for the first heating switch-on but I’m finding I simply can’t get warm. Might have to be an evening sat with the fire lit today.
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
What right would we have to reject the Euro if we were going back in? Its surely fully committed if we want to get back in.
There are a lot of countries which are required to adopt the Euro, and they are all still dragging their feet and have not adopted it up to 20 years later.
You see I don't get this argument. We have known for years there are lots of countries in the EU who ignore bits of EU legislation, often very large and fundemental bits. But that is not who we are. It is thoroughly dishonest to say you are going to join an organisation, promise to abide by its rules - particularly when they integral to your right to join - and then plan in advance to ignore them.
I always find it disturbing and enlightenening when this is used as an argument by the pro-EU mob. They think so little of the organisation they are pushing to rejoin that they are already planning how to avoid or ignore its rules.
I'm not part of the pro-EU mob, for the avoidance of doubt .
I'm probably currently part of the pro single-market, avoid the institutions mob at present.
Yep, I wrote the comment as a reply to you and then went through and changed various 'You's to 'They's in the last paragraph specifically to avoid that accusation.
I was hoping to keep the heating off until October. I fear I will have to relent.
I’m not sure if it’s just the fact that the temperatures have changed so quickly, but this cold snap has really hit me for six. I usually rather pride myself on dragging out the knitwear and the extra blanket and holding out for the first heating switch-on but I’m finding I simply can’t get warm. Might have to be an evening sat with the fire lit today.
That's because it is genuinely and surprisingly COLD
It's been *feels like* 9C in London in recent days
That's the daily max for late February not late September
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Or they are paying their shilling to gawp at Bedlam...
If Harris wins NC then she can probably still win even if she loses Pennsylvania.
North Carolina has an above average percentage of college graduates and African Americans so is probably her best chance of a pick up from Trump 2020 states
If Harris wins NC then she can probably still win even if she loses Pennsylvania.
North Carolina has an above average percentage of college graduates and African Americans so is probably her best chance of a pick up from Trump 2020 states
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Or they are paying their shilling to gawp at Bedlam...
I was hoping to keep the heating off until October. I fear I will have to relent.
I’m not sure if it’s just the fact that the temperatures have changed so quickly, but this cold snap has really hit me for six. I usually rather pride myself on dragging out the knitwear and the extra blanket and holding out for the first heating switch-on but I’m finding I simply can’t get warm. Might have to be an evening sat with the fire lit today.
That's because it is genuinely and surprisingly COLD
It's been *feels like* 9C in London in recent days
That's the daily max for late February not late September
Plus frigid rain, ugh
When I wondered along Piccadilly on Saturday night (after seeing Starlight Express for my sins) it was definitely colder than the coat I had packed for an autumn evening...
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Or they are paying their shilling to gawp at Bedlam...
I'm sure that's part of it. She's an interesting character from recent history, like Boris. Or Corbyn. If I were there all week I think I'd be tempted to queue up to watch her speak.
I did see her speak at a conference a few years ago, before her PMship. She seemed unremarkable and fairly mainstream back then. I recall thinking her speech was at about the level of a good Big-4 partner. Less polished than Damien Green or John McDonnell who also had slots (McDonnell was really rather impressive, in that faintly BBC-drama-organised-crime-boss way of his), but decent. She must have gone all pork-markets and disgracy at a later date.
If Harris wins NC then she can probably still win even if she loses Pennsylvania.
North Carolina has an above average percentage of college graduates and African Americans so is probably her best chance of a pick up from Trump 2020 states
Lots of Evangelicals too though.
Fewer than in Georgia though and Trump may get lower turnout of evangelicals this time after ruling out a Federal abortion ban
I was hoping to keep the heating off until October. I fear I will have to relent.
I’m not sure if it’s just the fact that the temperatures have changed so quickly, but this cold snap has really hit me for six. I usually rather pride myself on dragging out the knitwear and the extra blanket and holding out for the first heating switch-on but I’m finding I simply can’t get warm. Might have to be an evening sat with the fire lit today.
That's because it is genuinely and surprisingly COLD
It's been *feels like* 9C in London in recent days
That's the daily max for late February not late September
Plus frigid rain, ugh
When I wondered along Piccadilly on Saturday night (after seeing Starlight Express for my sins) it was definitely colder than the coat I had packed for an autumn evening...
And dark. Kitchen lights on during breakfast is a feature of autumn I could do without.
Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Total 649
Labour and LD coalition but Tories more seats than 2024 and 1997-2005 and Reform as many MPs as the SNP had in 2015.
The LDs likely would demand a return to the single market as the price of propping up a minority Labour government and maybe PR as well
I was hoping to keep the heating off until October. I fear I will have to relent.
I’m not sure if it’s just the fact that the temperatures have changed so quickly, but this cold snap has really hit me for six. I usually rather pride myself on dragging out the knitwear and the extra blanket and holding out for the first heating switch-on but I’m finding I simply can’t get warm. Might have to be an evening sat with the fire lit today.
That's because it is genuinely and surprisingly COLD
It's been *feels like* 9C in London in recent days
That's the daily max for late February not late September
Plus frigid rain, ugh
When I wondered along Piccadilly on Saturday night (after seeing Starlight Express for my sins) it was definitely colder than the coat I had packed for an autumn evening...
I walked home from Soho that same night, and yes it was proper biting cold. If it had been December I'd have enjoyed it as a cold crisp winter night...
The Wifey worked with Sally Kirkland. She would tell her how Kris Kristofferson would do her at lunch time, shag Barbra Streisand in the afternoon and go home to bed his wife Rita Coolidge.
Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Total 649
Labour and LD coalition but Tories more seats than 2024 and 1997-2005 and Reform as many MPs as the SNP had in 2015.
The LDs likely would demand a return to the single market as the price of propping up a minority Labour government and maybe PR as well
Well, it's all pointless speculation but your usual insights into Liberal Democrat thinking notwithstanding, I'm far from convinced the LDs would want to play the Coalition game so soon after what happened last time.
I suspect the Party would, as a maximum, only offer confidence and supply to a (presumably) second Starmer administration and that would need a lot of negotiation. PR might well be the price for that.
If Harris wins NC then she can probably still win even if she loses Pennsylvania.
North Carolina has an above average percentage of college graduates and African Americans so is probably her best chance of a pick up from Trump 2020 states
North Carolina is also utterly devastated by the hurricane. Impossible to know how that affects voting
After the Sunday Times journo got sued they must either be very brave, very stupid or very confident of the facts
it's twitter so stupid is the default response...
Just had a look to see if *that* hashtag was trending. And it isn't. But trending topics appear to be The Chase, Gullis, Liz Truss, Simon Case, and BreedforBritain(?).
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Liz Truss continues to surprise (on the upside)?
The MP who lost her seat with the biggest swing against of any Conservative MP claims the Party would have done better with her in charge.
"In the state with its smallest operation, Nevada, the Harris campaign has 142 staffers; a Republican operative who claimed to be familiar with the Trump team’s staffing level said there were only 16 campaign staff in Nevada, a figure a Trump official disputed, saying the number was “significantly” higher while declining to share specifics."
What's interesting is the comparison to 1997. For all the confected nature of "Things can only get better", the activists waving Union flags in Downing St, the music, etc there was a real sense of national renewal, hope and optimism. Arguably it was a bit unfair as the economy that Labour inherited was on the up, and people were just sick of the Tories as much as anything else. Fast forward to 2024. The Tories lost for a number of reasons, some self inflicted, others external. Any government challenged by Covid and then the energy crisis would struggle, and indeed most have around the world. Where is Jacinta Ardern now? Nicola Sturgeon? But they also failed to get the economy going enough the decline in the NHS is clear to see from the data. And yet their is no sense of 1997 reborn. Starmer is dull as ditchwater and a huge hypocrite to boot. He takes the lawyers way out of any issues "No rules were broken" whether it is covid rules and a needless cuury and a pint to vast, vast sums of money to buy nice clothes for his wife. His wife, FFS.
And so the whole country is in a bad mood. The press are running things down left, right and centre. People tend to think that the country is more dangerous than ever, with more crime, when the reverse is true, but the 24/7 news culture needs feeding its diet of dismay.
Most people who use the NHS say they get great service from people who care yet also say how bad it is. There is a disconnect somewhere.
When people finally get treated by the NHS, they are generally happy enough with the serice they get. But many months in pain before they can get the process started is going to wear down the most enthusiastic Covid pan-basher.
We have unconscionable waiting lists. Millions upon millions. There needs to be some really creative thinking on funding of private treatment and tax offsets. Difficult when they have painted themselves into a £22 billion black hole. No light at the end of a tunnel is ever going to escape a black hole...
I agree with this. The evidence is pretty stark that the Tories dropped the bollock way before covid on waiting times. Add in an ever ageing and sicker patient cohort and you have trouble looming.
I have friends emigrating - in part - BECAUSE the NHS is so crap where they live. That’s how bad it is. The NHS is now a reason to LEAVE the UK
Does anyone still bother to say “envy of the world”? I don’t think so
So is their plan to pay privately overseas? Or just take out the required medical insurance?
The NHS is astonishing value for money, but sadly we still want more. Too often we want the NHS to heal us of our self-inflicted ills. Obesity treatments? Some are genuinely ill (Prader-Willi) others have no clue about health lifestyles. Extreme sports injuries (including things like skiing, but also rugby, football etc) should require extra insurance. Smoking related illness? Bottom of the list until you give up smoking.
If the NHS is such a good system, why hasn't any other European country adopted it, despite many of those countries being usually more left-wing / social-democratic than the UK is?
I was hoping to keep the heating off until October. I fear I will have to relent.
I’m not sure if it’s just the fact that the temperatures have changed so quickly, but this cold snap has really hit me for six. I usually rather pride myself on dragging out the knitwear and the extra blanket and holding out for the first heating switch-on but I’m finding I simply can’t get warm. Might have to be an evening sat with the fire lit today.
That's because it is genuinely and surprisingly COLD
It's been *feels like* 9C in London in recent days
That's the daily max for late February not late September
Plus frigid rain, ugh
When I wondered along Piccadilly on Saturday night (after seeing Starlight Express for my sins) it was definitely colder than the coat I had packed for an autumn evening...
I walked home from Soho that same night, and yes it was proper biting cold. If it had been December I'd have enjoyed it as a cold crisp winter night...
There’s a lot of prick teasing going on from the likes of Dan Wooton. Just spit it out man!
Edit - supposed to refer to your prior comment, not the one about proper biting in Soho
Looks like the EndTimes, and some nasty chemicals spreading
Ah yes, the Bio Lab fire that lots of right-wing dingbats are taking as being a bio lab. As opposed to a company called 'BioLab' that make pool cleaning equipment and treatments.
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Perhaps this is Labour’s plan. To so comprehensively ruin the country - even more than it is ruined now - we will beg to go back into the EU
But I doubt they’d have us as we’d be a net drain on their resources and everyone in Britain would immediately flee to Poland and Romania for superior lifestyles
We don't meet the debt/deficit requirements in any case, though I guess an exception could be made under a "former member" framework.
I genuinely think we’d get vetoed. France just because. Malta for the lolz. Spain because Gibraltar and they don’t want our obese pensioners back
It just takes one country out of 27
The negotiations would take decades and at the end it might be No, no UKG would spend all that time and capital on such a risk. Not gonna happen
SM/CU - yes possibly
France would put it to a referendum and the temptation for them to say Non unless we also join the Euro would be too great.
What right would we have to reject the Euro if we were going back in? Its surely fully committed if we want to get back in.
There are a lot of countries which are required to adopt the Euro, and they are all still dragging their feet and have not adopted it up to 20 years later.
You see I don't get this argument. We have known for years there are lots of countries in the EU who ignore bits of EU legislation, often very large and fundemental bits. But that is not who we are. It is thoroughly dishonest to say you are going to join an organisation, promise to abide by its rules - particularly when they integral to your right to join - and then plan in advance to ignore them.
I always find it disturbing and enlightenening when this is used as an argument by the pro-EU mob. They think so little of the organisation they are pushing to rejoin that they are already planning how to avoid or ignore its rules.
Similarly the "it says that but it doesn't mean it" argument made about Ever Closer Union.
I don't favour rejoining the EU due to political reasons, because it's a political project.
"I live about 60 miles from Conyers. I can smell the chlorine when I go outside. I cannot imagine what it is like close by. Conyers is a densely populated area. Just stunning."
Looks like the EndTimes, and some nasty chemicals spreading
Ah yes, the Bio Lab fire that lots of right-wing dingbats are taking as being a bio lab. As opposed to a company called 'BioLab' that make pool cleaning equipment and treatments.
Er, they are saying it is spreading chlorine, which is what you might expect in a factory making pool cleaning equipment?
CBC.ca - Poilievre penalized for not withdrawing comments that set off question period fracas
Speaker asked Poilievre to withdraw comments or risk losing three questions during Thursday's question period
[Canadian House of Commons] Speaker Greg Fergus docked questions from Pierre Poilievre on Thursday after the Conservative leader declined to withdraw comments he made in the House of Commons last week.
"The chair has offered the leader of the Official Opposition the opportunity to make amends regarding the words he used," Fergus said just before question period.
"Having not received such a commitment on his part and the member having not withdrawn his comments, I will therefore remove three questions from the leader of the Official Opposition."
During question period last week, Poilievre used his opening round of questions to criticize both the Bloc Québécois and NDP for not supporting his motion to topple the Liberal government.
At one point, the Conservative leader called NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh "a fake, a phony and a fraud." Singh responded by rising from his seat and walking into the aisle to yell at Poilievre.
Two MPs who were in the House told CBC News that Singh said, "I'm right here, bro,"
. . . before Thursday's question period started, Fergus addressed the House regarding last week's incident and reprimanded both Poilievre and Singh for their actions. . . .
SSI - Polls currently show Poilievre eating Trudeau the Younger's lunch/dîner, with next general election anytime between now and October 2025. Note the Conservative leader is reprising strategy that did NOT work in recent Winnipeg federal by-election, namely attacking NDP as enablers of Liberal misrule. Which may OR may NOT make sense, depending on province, riding AND timing of the GE. Yes IF it limits shifts from Tories to Dippers in Con-NDP marginals; but NO if it firms up Liberal vote in Con-Lib marginals.
Timing of CN GE dependent on nexus of Prime Minister's choice AND willingness of the NDP & BQ to pull the plug re: VONC.
BTW (& FYI) wiki says Poilievre is "PAW-lee-EV" for Anglophones up in the Great White North. In many ways his early background is mirror-image of Brian Mulrooney; whereas BM was totally bi-lingual anglophone Quebecker (of Irish heritage), PP was born in Alberta and is totally bi-lingual adopted son of francophone Quebeckers who'd moved to Calgary.
Worth noting that Justin Trudeau is also totally biligual of mixed French/English Quebec/BC parentage. And Jagmeet Singh is tri-lingual, in English, French and Punjabi. Or quadri-lingual IF you include Newfie.
After the Sunday Times journo got sued they must either be very brave, very stupid or very confident of the facts
Wouldn't be surprised if Nigel doesn't use Parliamentary Privilege to question Starmar about it at the next available PMQs, lol!
Which, in a way, is why these ideas of the Tories and Reform UK having some sort of electoral pact at the next election are dubious. Reform UK are going to do Reform UK stuff. If the Tories team up with them, then they’re tied to their whacky shenanigans.
I was hoping to keep the heating off until October. I fear I will have to relent.
I’m not sure if it’s just the fact that the temperatures have changed so quickly, but this cold snap has really hit me for six. I usually rather pride myself on dragging out the knitwear and the extra blanket and holding out for the first heating switch-on but I’m finding I simply can’t get warm. Might have to be an evening sat with the fire lit today.
It might just be you're getting older... Happens to us all! 😭
Would folks be prepared to reverse Brexit if it became clear that it offered a path to economic renewal?
There would need to be solid evidence that it wouldn't do the opposite as the EU regulates our dynamic industries like finance and tech out of existence, if the bar was met I wouldn't be wholly against it.
Is that a yes or a no?
The reason I ask is that there is a lot of ideology out there today that gets in the way of progress. Lots of entrenched positions and pride. Some people would rather see the ship go down than change their position.
If we can get the economics without the politics sure.
After the Sunday Times journo got sued they must either be very brave, very stupid or very confident of the facts
Wouldn't be surprised if Nigel doesn't use Parliamentary Privilege to question Starmar about it at the next available PMQs, lol!
Which, in a way, is why these ideas of the Tories and Reform UK having some sort of electoral pact at the next election are dubious. Reform UK are going to do Reform UK stuff. If the Tories team up with them, then they’re tied to their whacky shenanigans.
I can't see an electoral pact happening while Farage is leading them anyway. There's too much antipathy on both sides.
They'll contest the election as independent parties, IMO but if the election result throws up a hung parliament where a Con/Ref government is viable, then all bets are off.
After the Sunday Times journo got sued they must either be very brave, very stupid or very confident of the facts
Wouldn't be surprised if Nigel doesn't use Parliamentary Privilege to question Starmar about it at the next available PMQs, lol!
Which, in a way, is why these ideas of the Tories and Reform UK having some sort of electoral pact at the next election are dubious. Reform UK are going to do Reform UK stuff. If the Tories team up with them, then they’re tied to their whacky shenanigans.
Rees Mogg says Tories should stand down in 100 seats Reform can win
After the Sunday Times journo got sued they must either be very brave, very stupid or very confident of the facts
Wouldn't be surprised if Nigel doesn't use Parliamentary Privilege to question Starmar about it at the next available PMQs, lol!
Which, in a way, is why these ideas of the Tories and Reform UK having some sort of electoral pact at the next election are dubious. Reform UK are going to do Reform UK stuff. If the Tories team up with them, then they’re tied to their whacky shenanigans.
I can't see an electoral pact happening while Farage is leading them anyway. There's too much antipathy on both sides.
They'll contest the election as independent parties, IMO but if the election result throws up a hung parliament where a Con/Ref government is viable, then all bets are off.
Agreed. What happens after the election can be very different to what people say before.
Kemi could be the Conference choice (she would be mine). But will the MPs swing behind to get her into the final two?
I don't think it will make much difference to the overall Tory strategy whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick is elected leader. They will do a deal with Farage. At the next election, the Tories will give RUK a clear run at the 90 seats where RUK came second to Labour. In return, RUK will not stand in the remaining seats (as in 2019).
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows: Con 209 Lab 255 LD 88 RUK 56 Green 8 PC 4 SNP 9 Ind 3 NI 17
Total 649
Labour and LD coalition but Tories more seats than 2024 and 1997-2005 and Reform as many MPs as the SNP had in 2015.
The LDs likely would demand a return to the single market as the price of propping up a minority Labour government and maybe PR as well
Well, it's all pointless speculation but your usual insights into Liberal Democrat thinking notwithstanding, I'm far from convinced the LDs would want to play the Coalition game so soon after what happened last time.
I suspect the Party would, as a maximum, only offer confidence and supply to a (presumably) second Starmer administration and that would need a lot of negotiation. PR might well be the price for that.
"PR might well be the price for that."
As in a referendum? A sure-fire loss if they try that again.
If Harris wins NC then she can probably still win even if she loses Pennsylvania.
North Carolina has an above average percentage of college graduates and African Americans so is probably her best chance of a pick up from Trump 2020 states
North Carolina is also utterly devastated by the hurricane. Impossible to know how that affects voting
Reckon there will be some negative impact on voter turnout, given personal dislocations and distractions will be LONG lasting in Helene's aftermath. Which outside of Asheville and Boone would tend to affect Republican candidates more than Democrats.
In the month plus some until Election Day, state & local election officials will be working to deal with flood issues impacting early voting, absentee voting by mail, AND also ED poll voting, for example replacing polling locations that got washed out by the flooding.
Also suspect that many voters in areas hardest-hit by Helene, will take extra effort to cast their vote, as part of their civic duty AND community recovery.
Looks like the EndTimes, and some nasty chemicals spreading
Ah yes, the Bio Lab fire that lots of right-wing dingbats are taking as being a bio lab. As opposed to a company called 'BioLab' that make pool cleaning equipment and treatments.
Er, they are saying it is spreading chlorine, which is what you might expect in a factory making pool cleaning equipment?
Another SVR blunder. "Dmitri, your next assignment is set fire to secret NATO bio lab in Georgia".
Comments
https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1840662909002682491?s=61
RUK will gain a considerable number of seats and the Tories will win back some of the Red Wall off Labour. However the Tories will lose some more Blue Wall seats to the LDs.
I've had a go at modelling this scenario, seat by seat (I know it's a bit early) and the result is as follows:
Con 209
Lab 255
LD 88
RUK 56
Green 8
PC 4
SNP 9
Ind 3
NI 17
Total 649
I always find it disturbing and enlightenening when this is used as an argument by the pro-EU mob. They think so little of the organisation they are pushing to rejoin that they are already planning how to avoid or ignore its rules.
What I was surprised by was that the UK managed to get a trade deal that didn't force dynamic regulatory alignment in emerging industries. The UK is a huge threat to the EU now when it comes to emerging technology because they can't force us to adopt their shitty regulations.
I'm probably currently part of the pro single-market, avoid the institutions mob at present.
I realised today that Cineworld was showing The Empire Strikes Back for one day. Yesterday. Dammit...
"List of active coal-fired power stations in the United Kingdom
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_coal-fired_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUMKMeYUP14
There's no certain way of fixing the twin problems of differential non-response and differential turnout. People who are going to vote for Trump don't talk to pollsters. We suspect, but do not know, that turnout for Harris will be large, but we don't know. Pollsters fill out the gaps with guesses. They are educated guesses carefully made, but they don't know. They might be right. They may not.
In the end you have to decide whether keep the nation state and abandon the Euro, or keep the Euro and abandon the nation state.
You may not use cash anymore but millions do every day
Even though the message is a sort of utopian futurism the whole thing feels more like someone rewrote The Fountainhead (Adam Driver is a knock-off Roark character who can, inexplicably, stop time), gave it a bit of Blade Runner meets Ancient Rome set dressing, and cut six hours of intended footage into two hours, meaning there's little in the way of character development and plot points are either glossed over or left hanging.
It's a mad hodgepodge of ideas that can only really make sense if you're very, very stoned.
Also saw The Outrun recently. That was a fantastic movie, brilliantly written and acted, and very moving. Well worth watching while it's still in cinemas. It also cost 1/10th of Megalopolis to make...
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1840725806697337242
The fact that (a) the queue for Truss is so long (b) there remains so much interest in and sympathy for her take on events from conference delegates, and (c) that she seems so unwilling to retreat from Tory politics, would worry me if I were any of the potential Conservative leaders and delight me were I in No 10.
Reminded me of Cronenberg with a few little homages to Kubrick too. It was schlocky and extreme, and the messaging wasn’t subtle, but I did admire the fact it just went for it and it was well shot. And Demi Moore was very good.
Further away from office than ever
Still Labour have to wait until end of the year before he toddles off.
Not a loss.
Cash only.
One of these days I'm going to try offering a card. Or my phone. I reckon the folk who run the till will have a fit.
I pay with card down at the pub! Even for single pints (£4.70)
I pay £31* a month at present, and for that I get £220 per rolling 12 months for optical, £200 a for dental, a personal accident policy (eg £20k if I die, £1000 towards dental trauma if I break my teeth including in sport). There's all sorts of therapists in there too such as podiatrists and chiropodists (£150), practitioners eg physios, osteopath, acupuncture (£450), specialists/investigations (£600), health screening (£300), £600 if I have or adopt a baby, £40 a day when I am an in or outpatient, and other stuff.
My cashplan is linked below, and here is the range of benefits as my photo quota:
They are run by a fascinating set of institutions which existed before the NHS, and were generally "pay a penny a week and get a Dr when you need one" type programmes resourced by medics outside their time spent at paid-for-hospitals treating the well-off. Mine is called HSF- the Hospital Saturday Fund. They have now found a new role, and offer plans tailored to different groups - mine is individual and no dependents.
Worth a look to cover the gap?
https://www.hsf.co.uk/
* Although I'm just about to upgrade the level to reflect my new (private) dentist who has just presented me with an estimate of £500+ for 2 fillings.
Dentistry is so much cheaper there, once you get into major dental work - crowns etc - it is better to fly to Thailand and have it done and stay in a lovely hotel and have a bit of a holiday in the sun; the cost of all that will still be cheaper than the dental work alone in the UK
Make of that what you will.
Lord Ashcroft has much to say about this in his latest book...or so I hear.
MInd, when my mum died I discovered she had been paying into some sort of healtdh protection cover scheme, the kind with glitzy paperwork in multiple fonts and frilly borders. Mrs Carnyx had a look at the paperwork and commented that the rewards were in inverse proportion to the probability of the condition happening ...
It is interesting is that my dentist's quote includes a column for "what you would pay under Denplan" to sell me their favourite policy gently. Mum moved from an HCP to Denplan, and eventually it became very expensive indeed compared to the things she actually needed.
Either there's a tax break in there somewhere, or it relies on quite a lot of people not taking care to measure their costs against their benefits used. Money Saving Expert has good advice.
Before I switched to this one I had one called Westfield which came with a wide set of discounts including 10% off at Wickes, which stacked with the Wickes 10% trade discount (which they hand out like lollipops) and saved me £1000+ since I was renovating a house. The current one only gives 5%.
I can self-certify or self-refer for most things. One difference I have noticed is that my previous one had a full online operation, where as this one have online payments and things but claim and paperwork have to go via email attachments of fill-in-PDF forms. They just run a tighter ship on the hospital based ones and larger claims.
It's been *feels like* 9C in London in recent days
That's the daily max for late February not late September
Plus frigid rain, ugh
Liz Truss blames Clement Attlee for Britain’s ‘woke’ culture.
Hadn’t seen that coming
https://x.com/jonsopel/status/1840727022579904854
North Carolina has an above average percentage of college graduates and African Americans so is probably her best chance of a pick up from Trump 2020 states
I did see her speak at a conference a few years ago, before her PMship. She seemed unremarkable and fairly mainstream back then. I recall thinking her speech was at about the level of a good Big-4 partner. Less polished than Damien Green or John McDonnell who also had slots (McDonnell was really rather impressive, in that faintly BBC-drama-organised-crime-boss way of his), but decent. She must have gone all pork-markets and disgracy at a later date.
Don't worry @TheScreamingEagles I shan't repeat any here
After the Sunday Times journo got sued they must either be very brave, very stupid or very confident of the facts
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/us-states-by-evangelical-protestant-population.html
“They are out-matching us in money, in enthusiasm and in the ground game,” one Michigan-based GOP strategist said.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/republicans-alarm-trump-ground-game-00181577
The LDs likely would demand a return to the single market as the price of propping up a minority Labour government and maybe PR as well
The world has lost a dude.
I suspect the Party would, as a maximum, only offer confidence and supply to a (presumably) second Starmer administration and that would need a lot of negotiation. PR might well be the price for that.
https://www.activote.net/harris-leads-in-wisconsin/
Patriot Polling Pennsylvania Trump 50% Harris 49%
https://patriotpolling.com/our-polls/f/trump-and-casey-lead-narrowly-in-pennsylvania
Trafalgar Pennsylvania Trump 47.5% Harris 45.3%
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-0929/
PPP Florida Trump 51% Harris 46%
https://cleanprosperousamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/CaPA-FL-TX-Poll-Memo-Sept-29-2024.pdf
The MP who lost her seat with the biggest swing against of any Conservative MP claims the Party would have done better with her in charge.
Are any of those reputable pollsters ?
Edit - supposed to refer to your prior comment, not the one about proper biting in Soho
https://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1840741910257840362
Looks like the EndTimes, and some nasty chemicals spreading
One to watch.
It really is that simple.
"I live about 60 miles from Conyers. I can smell the chlorine when I go outside. I cannot imagine what it is like close by. Conyers is a densely populated area. Just stunning."
https://x.com/tenbeerz/status/1840814708686737785
Chlorine is an actual poison gas from WW1...
Speaker asked Poilievre to withdraw comments or risk losing three questions during Thursday's question period
[Canadian House of Commons] Speaker Greg Fergus docked questions from Pierre Poilievre on Thursday after the Conservative leader declined to withdraw comments he made in the House of Commons last week.
"The chair has offered the leader of the Official Opposition the opportunity to make amends regarding the words he used," Fergus said just before question period.
"Having not received such a commitment on his part and the member having not withdrawn his comments, I will therefore remove three questions from the leader of the Official Opposition."
During question period last week, Poilievre used his opening round of questions to criticize both the Bloc Québécois and NDP for not supporting his motion to topple the Liberal government.
At one point, the Conservative leader called NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh "a fake, a phony and a fraud." Singh responded by rising from his seat and walking into the aisle to yell at Poilievre.
Two MPs who were in the House told CBC News that Singh said, "I'm right here, bro,"
. . . before Thursday's question period started, Fergus addressed the House regarding last week's incident and reprimanded both Poilievre and Singh for their actions. . . .
SSI - Polls currently show Poilievre eating Trudeau the Younger's lunch/dîner, with next general election anytime between now and October 2025. Note the Conservative leader is reprising strategy that did NOT work in recent Winnipeg federal by-election, namely attacking NDP as enablers of Liberal misrule. Which may OR may NOT make sense, depending on province, riding AND timing of the GE. Yes IF it limits shifts from Tories to Dippers in Con-NDP marginals; but NO if it firms up Liberal vote in Con-Lib marginals.
Timing of CN GE dependent on nexus of Prime Minister's choice AND willingness of the NDP & BQ to pull the plug re: VONC.
BTW (& FYI) wiki says Poilievre is "PAW-lee-EV" for Anglophones up in the Great White North. In many ways his early background is mirror-image of Brian Mulrooney; whereas BM was totally bi-lingual anglophone Quebecker (of Irish heritage), PP was born in Alberta and is totally bi-lingual adopted son of francophone Quebeckers who'd moved to Calgary.
Worth noting that Justin Trudeau is also totally biligual of mixed French/English Quebec/BC parentage. And Jagmeet Singh is tri-lingual, in English, French and Punjabi. Or quadri-lingual IF you include Newfie.
Properly Box.
Confused
https://x.com/BillyHeathFOX5/status/1840771388535148910
They'll contest the election as independent parties, IMO but if the election result throws up a hung parliament where a Con/Ref government is viable, then all bets are off.
As in a referendum? A sure-fire loss if they try that again.
🔵 Rees-Mogg: Tories should step aside in 100 seats where Reform can win
https://x.com/TelePolitics/status/1840814383993115039
In the month plus some until Election Day, state & local election officials will be working to deal with flood issues impacting early voting, absentee voting by mail, AND also ED poll voting, for example replacing polling locations that got washed out by the flooding.
Also suspect that many voters in areas hardest-hit by Helene, will take extra effort to cast their vote, as part of their civic duty AND community recovery.