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Inevitability, even the MRP says it is too close to call – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,035
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I’m going to refine my “London is the new Anchorage” meteorological meme. It’s hyperbolic, something I abhor. We don’t get the snows of Alaskan winters

    I think we’ve now got the climate of somewhere about 500-1000km north of Vancouver. Somewhere like Haida Gwaii or Dawsons Landing or Whaletown

    London: the Canadian Pacific sub-Arctic of the east

    Not as catchy but closer to the truth. We now have a cold rainforest climate


    This is just wrong, sorry. London has only 40% of the precipitation of Haida Gwell.
    But we’re catching up, aren’t we?

    *stares outside*
    East coast of the UK is frankly rather pleasant. Even Edinburgh has less rain than Lisbon, Rome, Palermo, Geneva. It's the dark winters and cloudy skies that can cause issues, but then we get these glorious weeks in May and June.

    Glasgow is grim though.
    OTOH, 'cos of the rain, our island is gloriously verdant. Bill Bryson once said of Devon that you could be forgiven for thinking its chief industry was the manufacture of chlorophyll.
    And there is a moment when, after a week in Southern Europe when you've gradually become accustomed to the pale washed-out beige and the brightness, that your plane descends through the clouds above Kinder on its descent into Manchester Airport, and you're peering keenly out the window looking for familiar landmarks because your family know how much you love doing that and they always indulge this one, one time where your wants take precedence over those of your children who are in any case plugged into electronic devices and they let you have the window seat, and suddenly there is Tameside; sweet, unremarkable, uninteresting Tameside below you, startlingly close, and the force of the GREEN hits you almost bodily - and the urban form suddenly makes sense again, and everything is familiar, and there's the M60, that must be Bredbury, and look, there's the Pyramid, there's Edgeley Park, there's John Lewis at Cheadle (see? they're not interested; the window seat would have been wasted on them anyway), there's the Heald Green line and we're inches over Moss Nook and the world is green and subtle and British right to the horizon, and man, it's good to be home and as the tears slightly well with the hiraeth that you didn't know you had been feeling but has now been gloriously blown away, that you reflect - actually, there's a lot to be said for grey, damp and mild.
    Beautifully put and so sadly untrue
    I do genuinely enjoy arriving back to a dull grey mild day, and I wouldn't want it any less wet, because I do genuinely love the greenness of the UK and the west of it in particular. But I will quietly concede I wouldn't mind a bit more blue sky - just as much rain, but rather more concentrated.
    I'd also like a bit more snow in winter. Britain never looks better than when covered in snow.
    I genuinely envy your ability to enjoy our weather

    I sometimes wonder if my endless pro travel has spoiled me. ie I’ve been to so many lovely places with lovely climates it’s made me overly critical of British damp and grey, which isn’t THAT bad

    But then I remember my first Mediterranean holiday aged about seven and how that warm consistent sun made me instantly happier, and how I felt - even aged seven - “my God, this is what weather is meant to be like, this is my kind of world” - so maybe I was born in the wrong climate and all my travels since have been at attempt to escape it
    Quite a lot of people like our climate because they dislike heat. This is not a fashionable view, perhaps because it isn't possible to commercialise or advertise the concept of liking rather boring middling weather - outside temperature at say 16-21 C.
    Yes. I once met a Middle Eastern prince in St James’ Park. Just got talking to this guy randomly. He said: “I cannot understand why the English complain about their weather. The weather here is absolutely lovely. I wish we had it.”
    That’s because you met him in summer, when half the Middle East decamps to London.

    They don’t know that London has three other seasons.
    The advantage of London seasons is that they often occur on the same afternoon.

    On one occasion, on the Tideway, I was in a double with a visitor to London. He expressed surprise that we went from nearly unrowable waves, wind etc to calm water and sunshine by travelling round a turn.

    I pointed out this was completely normal and to enjoy it while he could. Waterspouts and excitable dragons undoubtedly awaited us round the following turn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,304
    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,056
    ydoethur said:

    In important news:

    Lalit Modi implicitly accuses the ECB of fraud.

    https://www.thecricketer.com/Topics/the-hundred-premium/ipl_founder_casts_doubt_on_hundred_projections.html?t=638630421707736518

    When even Lalit Modi thinks you're being dishonest, something is wrong.

    Interesting thread about it here

    https://x.com/OutsideCricket/status/1839344407553958167
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,979
    edited September 27
    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,486
    edited September 27
    The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.

    The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/fiscal-rules-and-investment-upcoming-budget

    (The current fiscal rule is based on bogus conjuring tricks already).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    If you really want to get it done, you should be lobbying Jenrick and Farage (as well as Starmer and Ed is crap I suppose).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567
    edited September 27
    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
  • Dame Maggie Smith has died. ☹️
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    Private sector got such a hit during the pandemic. We need as large a private sector as possible in proportion to the size of the public sector - at the end of the day this pays for everything - and Labour is doing the opposite of what we need.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    I've wittered on before about the economic implications of the Hinckley Point break price for UK manufacturing. I accept the need for us to head for net zero but we must be alert to the economic implications of the path chosen. At the moment it seems a collateral consideration at best and the priority is maximising external investment by guaranteeing high returns for the investors. The economic implications of this are horrendous.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,285
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All the council by-elections looking piss poor for Labour. Now it's obviously normal for a Gov't to go backwards in mid-term (And we haven't reached those) council elections, but Starmer clearly wanted to get to mid term unpopularity early :D

    Sir Keir is left with no choice but to console himself with a parliamentary majority of 174.
    Boy oh boy I'm going to bookmark this and buy some massive popcorn to see your reaction come GE2029.

    That's if you've got the bollocks to come on here on election night.
    I'm at a loss as to the point of that quote - the odds of Labour having a majority anything like 174 in 2028 is about zero.

    As the newly elected Labour MPs are finding out they are really social workers fixing things where people have fallen through the gaps because they have zero chance of becoming a minister due to the number of other MPs in the exact same position..
    As I said the other day, though... Tories are making the same errors Labour did back in the 2010s. Nobody loves the Tories/Labour, the public will welcome us back by 2015/29.... the 35% strategy will work. Sure people aren't fond of Ed/Jenrick but our brand is stronger than them.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,912

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,496
    algarkirk said:

    The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.

    The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/fiscal-rules-and-investment-upcoming-budget

    Starmer is Truss in reverse:

    Liz Truss premiership timeline:

    1 - subsidise energy so that pensioners don't freeze
    2 - cut taxes

    Keir Starmer premiership timeline:

    1 - cut WFA and freeze pensioners
    2 - increase spending
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Utter twaddle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,475
    Leon said:

    On the other hand I just made £10k. That's cheered me up. Fuck the weather

    Is that before or after 40% tax
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    edited September 27

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Utter twaddle.
    Of course it is utter twaddle that this is true, but politically the argument is being lost. Milliband will be the cause of the collapse of this government.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Utter twaddle.
    Difficult reading:

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50249-how-do-britons-feel-about-expanding-renewable-energy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    I've wittered on before about the economic implications of the Hinckley Point break price for UK manufacturing. I accept the need for us to head for net zero but we must be alert to the economic implications of the path chosen. At the moment it seems a collateral consideration at best and the priority is maximising external investment by guaranteeing high returns for the investors. The economic implications of this are horrendous.
    UK energy prices to industry are the highest in the world, 50% higher than Germany and France, and 4x those in the US.

    Miliband’s strategy appears to be to cement those high prices in place, to enable his Net Zero Agenda.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/26/britain-burdened-most-expensive-electricity-prices-in-world/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,979
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand I just made £10k. That's cheered me up. Fuck the weather

    Is that before or after 40% tax
    Don't
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Utter twaddle.
    Difficult reading:

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50249-how-do-britons-feel-about-expanding-renewable-energy
    Just makes the fall more precipitous when the implications are laid out. See the green's recent fortunes in Germany.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,979
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    It doesn't really matter. Britain is set on a course for steep economic decline, and possible collapse, and it could arrive exceedingly quickly (cf Hemingway on bankruptcy)

    In fact, Britain reminds me of a cartoon character running off a cliff, the legs are still whirring, for a while it has felt like we were still advancing: we had the momentum of Empire still behind us, the acquired wealth and nous, the global relations and ambitions..

    ... but in reality we are a hugely overpopulated archipelago off northern Europe with a shit climate and struggling industries and a terrible reliance on a ponzi scheme of ill-advised migration which makes everything worse and worse and now we look down and realise we are suspended in mid-air....
  • Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Is there massive support for the Cayman Island employees drafted into the Government?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,728
    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    If it cheers you up at all, the JSO protestors who threw soup at a Van Gogh painting have been jailed.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/27/just-stop-oil-van-gogh-painting-jail/
  • theakestheakes Posts: 929
    "Eight female councillors in Dacorum have left the Liberal Democrat group after accusing the council leader of “failing to deal with allegations of bullying and harassment, including sexual harassment”.

    It means the Liberal Democrats have lost their majority on the borough council, which has now moved into no overall control.

    The councillors, who included two cabinet members and will now sit as independents, announced they were leaving the group during a full council meeting yesterday (Wednesday, 25 September). They remain members of the Liberal Democrat party.

    The report goes on to quote a statement from the eight women and give some of the background to the affair".

    Extract from Lib Dem Voice.

    Another example of power being a dangerous thing, but for all 8 to go looks like there is a real story here.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    This doesn't sound so promising, does it? On Labour's new housing plans


    "the [new Labour] steer away from simplistic ideas of ‘beauty’, fostered by the previous government, at the very least allows us to think about housing as a necessary industrial process, instead of one of choice and taste."

    Yeah, fuck choice and taste, and fuck beauty. Let's reduce housing to a" necessary industrial process"

    https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/opinion/were-not-short-of-great-housing-architects-why-isnt-one-on-the-new-towns-taskforce

    Each time I hear someone advocate Brutalism for other people to live in, I feel a strong desire to see Brutalism practiced upon them.
    The advantage of living in the Brutalist house is that aren't the person looking at it from a window.
    As a student, I lived on the 'wrong side of the* river' in Southampton, in a river-front house share. Which meant, on a Saturday morning, I'd get to have breakfast on the balcony and gaze across at the fancy houses and marina on the other side, while the people living there at twice the rent got to gaze across at the wrong side of the river, with a derelict factory and tired old terraced housing and me eating toast in a tatty old dressing gown :sunglasses:

    *well, one of the two rivers
  • theakestheakes Posts: 929
    Another very good week for the Tories in the local by elections yesterday, Lib Dem vote held up, Labour hammered.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,909

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,221
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    Private sector got such a hit during the pandemic. We need as large a private sector as possible in proportion to the size of the public sector - at the end of the day this pays for everything - and Labour is doing the opposite of what we need.
    As a leftie, I will admit to the seductive appeal of spending money that isn't really there. For example from 2010 until the pandemic I believed, and still believe, we should have used the opportunity afforded by historically low interest rates to borrow for investment as the rate of return on that investment would likely have been higher than the interest rate. We'd have a much stronger, more productive economy now if we did so. Austerity was criminally poor economic policy.

    And right now, I still believe the way out of the dysfunction Leon refers to is to invest in public services.

    But economic prosperity (or, more specifically, market sentiment about the UK economy) is a fickle thing. I wish it were not so, but it is. I genuinely can't see how the Labour party can be promising an end to austerity without committing itself to paying a lot more debt interest, at a lot higher rates than the last decade or so. And that seems a vicious circle.

    Can anyone paint a more optimistic picture?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677

    algarkirk said:

    The treasury is planning conjuring tricks to enable it to borrow billions more (without having paid anything of the current £2 trillion back since before 2008) for our grandchildren to add to their student debt.

    The IFS today outlines various ways in which it will be done.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/fiscal-rules-and-investment-upcoming-budget

    Starmer is Truss in reverse:

    Liz Truss premiership timeline:

    1 - subsidise energy so that pensioners don't freeze
    2 - cut taxes

    Keir Starmer premiership timeline:

    1 - cut WFA and freeze pensioners
    2 - increase spending
    3 (Truss) - dramatic fall in Conservative polling
    3 (Starmer) - dramatic rise in Conservative polling? :wink:

    Not yet seen in the field though...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,979
    maxh said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    Private sector got such a hit during the pandemic. We need as large a private sector as possible in proportion to the size of the public sector - at the end of the day this pays for everything - and Labour is doing the opposite of what we need.
    As a leftie, I will admit to the seductive appeal of spending money that isn't really there. For example from 2010 until the pandemic I believed, and still believe, we should have used the opportunity afforded by historically low interest rates to borrow for investment as the rate of return on that investment would likely have been higher than the interest rate. We'd have a much stronger, more productive economy now if we did so. Austerity was criminally poor economic policy.

    And right now, I still believe the way out of the dysfunction Leon refers to is to invest in public services.

    But economic prosperity (or, more specifically, market sentiment about the UK economy) is a fickle thing. I wish it were not so, but it is. I genuinely can't see how the Labour party can be promising an end to austerity without committing itself to paying a lot more debt interest, at a lot higher rates than the last decade or so. And that seems a vicious circle.

    Can anyone paint a more optimistic picture?
    There is one ray of potential sunshine. The technology-that-must-not-be-mentioned (by me, at least)

    Potential game-changer for the entire world. Might make all this debate irrelevant, and soon
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    Should there be need for one and greenwashing goes out of fashion then I imagine Drax could quickly switch back to coal rather than burning endangered ancient forests sustainable wood pellets :wink:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,909
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    It doesn't really matter. Britain is set on a course for steep economic decline, and possible collapse, and it could arrive exceedingly quickly (cf Hemingway on bankruptcy)

    In fact, Britain reminds me of a cartoon character running off a cliff, the legs are still whirring, for a while it has felt like we were still advancing: we had the momentum of Empire still behind us, the acquired wealth and nous, the global relations and ambitions..

    ... but in reality we are a hugely overpopulated archipelago off northern Europe with a shit climate and struggling industries and a terrible reliance on a ponzi scheme of ill-advised migration which makes everything worse and worse and now we look down and realise we are suspended in mid-air....
    You're just a miserable declinist.
    Admittedly we're struggling with the political and economic aftermath of your ludicrous Brexit vote - which ended up driving you mad enough to vote Labour - but we'll sort ourselves out.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,960
    theakes said:

    "Eight female councillors in Dacorum have left the Liberal Democrat group after accusing the council leader of “failing to deal with allegations of bullying and harassment, including sexual harassment”.

    It means the Liberal Democrats have lost their majority on the borough council, which has now moved into no overall control.

    The councillors, who included two cabinet members and will now sit as independents, announced they were leaving the group during a full council meeting yesterday (Wednesday, 25 September). They remain members of the Liberal Democrat party.

    The report goes on to quote a statement from the eight women and give some of the background to the affair".

    Extract from Lib Dem Voice.

    Another example of power being a dangerous thing, but for all 8 to go looks like there is a real story here.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz6w394051lo

    Their complaint is against former council leader Ron Tindall, who has been accused of harassment and bullying. A fortnight ago, the council’s standards committee dismissed complaints against him. They are also complaining about Cllr England (who was deputy under Tindall and replaced him when Tindall stood down) not taking the complaints against Tindall seriously.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,870
    edited September 27
    Is there any Giftgate revelation that could turn the StarmTroopers, or is not being as bad as the Tories' "billions for PPE fraud" the only relevant marker for them?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    It doesn't really matter. Britain is set on a course for steep economic decline, and possible collapse, and it could arrive exceedingly quickly (cf Hemingway on bankruptcy)

    In fact, Britain reminds me of a cartoon character running off a cliff, the legs are still whirring, for a while it has felt like we were still advancing: we had the momentum of Empire still behind us, the acquired wealth and nous, the global relations and ambitions..

    ... but in reality we are a hugely overpopulated archipelago off northern Europe with a shit climate and struggling industries and a terrible reliance on a ponzi scheme of ill-advised migration which makes everything worse and worse and now we look down and realise we are suspended in mid-air....
    Now now. We are a compact nation, hugely naturally well resourced (look at our energy resources compared to France), hugely efficient compared to the US, with no extreme weather, and formidable cultural and linguistic advantages. We now have greater economical flexibility and less fiscal liabilities following Brexit. That's a great set of cards. We need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot with a 12 boar by ceasing to elect incompetent Britain-hating Governments.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.

    Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,992
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I’m going to refine my “London is the new Anchorage” meteorological meme. It’s hyperbolic, something I abhor. We don’t get the snows of Alaskan winters

    I think we’ve now got the climate of somewhere about 500-1000km north of Vancouver. Somewhere like Haida Gwaii or Dawsons Landing or Whaletown

    London: the Canadian Pacific sub-Arctic of the east

    Not as catchy but closer to the truth. We now have a cold rainforest climate


    This is just wrong, sorry. London has only 40% of the precipitation of Haida Gwell.
    But we’re catching up, aren’t we?

    *stares outside*
    East coast of the UK is frankly rather pleasant. Even Edinburgh has less rain than Lisbon, Rome, Palermo, Geneva. It's the dark winters and cloudy skies that can cause issues, but then we get these glorious weeks in May and June.

    Glasgow is grim though.
    OTOH, 'cos of the rain, our island is gloriously verdant. Bill Bryson once said of Devon that you could be forgiven for thinking its chief industry was the manufacture of chlorophyll.
    And there is a moment when, after a week in Southern Europe when you've gradually become accustomed to the pale washed-out beige and the brightness, that your plane descends through the clouds above Kinder on its descent into Manchester Airport, and you're peering keenly out the window looking for familiar landmarks because your family know how much you love doing that and they always indulge this one, one time where your wants take precedence over those of your children who are in any case plugged into electronic devices and they let you have the window seat, and suddenly there is Tameside; sweet, unremarkable, uninteresting Tameside below you, startlingly close, and the force of the GREEN hits you almost bodily - and the urban form suddenly makes sense again, and everything is familiar, and there's the M60, that must be Bredbury, and look, there's the Pyramid, there's Edgeley Park, there's John Lewis at Cheadle (see? they're not interested; the window seat would have been wasted on them anyway), there's the Heald Green line and we're inches over Moss Nook and the world is green and subtle and British right to the horizon, and man, it's good to be home and as the tears slightly well with the hiraeth that you didn't know you had been feeling but has now been gloriously blown away, that you reflect - actually, there's a lot to be said for grey, damp and mild.
    Beautifully put and so sadly untrue
    I do genuinely enjoy arriving back to a dull grey mild day, and I wouldn't want it any less wet, because I do genuinely love the greenness of the UK and the west of it in particular. But I will quietly concede I wouldn't mind a bit more blue sky - just as much rain, but rather more concentrated.
    I'd also like a bit more snow in winter. Britain never looks better than when covered in snow.
    I genuinely envy your ability to enjoy our weather

    I sometimes wonder if my endless pro travel has spoiled me. ie I’ve been to so many lovely places with lovely climates it’s made me overly critical of British damp and grey, which isn’t THAT bad

    But then I remember my first Mediterranean holiday aged about seven and how that warm consistent sun made me instantly happier, and how I felt - even aged seven - “my God, this is what weather is meant to be like, this is my kind of world” - so maybe I was born in the wrong climate and all my travels since have been at attempt to escape it
    Quite a lot of people like our climate because they dislike heat. This is not a fashionable view, perhaps because it isn't possible to commercialise or advertise the concept of liking rather boring middling weather - outside temperature at say 16-21 C.
    Yes. I once met a Middle Eastern prince in St James’ Park. Just got talking to this guy randomly. He said: “I cannot understand why the English complain about their weather. The weather here is absolutely lovely. I wish we had it.”
    That’s because you met him in summer, when half the Middle East decamps to London.

    They don’t know that London has three other seasons.
    rain, warm rain, rain with leaves, slush.
  • ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,960

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    You mean overcast rather than cold. Cold doesn't matter for solar.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.

    Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
    Yawn. I doubt coal gets a great press in Germany either, but they are still razing towns to the ground to build coal mines because they prefer it to having no economy. Eventually, even the more credulous people here will catch up.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
  • Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.

    Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
    How much of that is because people don't believe the lights will go out?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,475
    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Will it be kept in condition so it can be switched back on in case of emergency?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,772
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Will it be kept in condition so it can be switched back on in case of emergency?
    Nope. It is being demolished.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    maxh said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    Private sector got such a hit during the pandemic. We need as large a private sector as possible in proportion to the size of the public sector - at the end of the day this pays for everything - and Labour is doing the opposite of what we need.
    As a leftie, I will admit to the seductive appeal of spending money that isn't really there. For example from 2010 until the pandemic I believed, and still believe, we should have used the opportunity afforded by historically low interest rates to borrow for investment as the rate of return on that investment would likely have been higher than the interest rate. We'd have a much stronger, more productive economy now if we did so. Austerity was criminally poor economic policy.

    And right now, I still believe the way out of the dysfunction Leon refers to is to invest in public services.

    But economic prosperity (or, more specifically, market sentiment about the UK economy) is a fickle thing. I wish it were not so, but it is. I genuinely can't see how the Labour party can be promising an end to austerity without committing itself to paying a lot more debt interest, at a lot higher rates than the last decade or so. And that seems a vicious circle.

    Can anyone paint a more optimistic picture?
    Austerity ended with May and Hammond and was a response to the financial crash of 2007/8. All Labour seem to know is how to spend in favour of the public sector (and it doesn't matter to them what stage of any cycle we are at).
  • Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
    Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    Should there be need for one and greenwashing goes out of fashion then I imagine Drax could quickly switch back to coal rather than burning endangered ancient forests sustainable wood pellets :wink:
    There are also mothballed plans for a big clean coal station which could easily be dusted down.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,979

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    It doesn't really matter. Britain is set on a course for steep economic decline, and possible collapse, and it could arrive exceedingly quickly (cf Hemingway on bankruptcy)

    In fact, Britain reminds me of a cartoon character running off a cliff, the legs are still whirring, for a while it has felt like we were still advancing: we had the momentum of Empire still behind us, the acquired wealth and nous, the global relations and ambitions..

    ... but in reality we are a hugely overpopulated archipelago off northern Europe with a shit climate and struggling industries and a terrible reliance on a ponzi scheme of ill-advised migration which makes everything worse and worse and now we look down and realise we are suspended in mid-air....
    Now now. We are a compact nation, hugely naturally well resourced (look at our energy resources compared to France), hugely efficient compared to the US, with no extreme weather, and formidable cultural and linguistic advantages. We now have greater economical flexibility and less fiscal liabilities following Brexit. That's a great set of cards. We need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot with a 12 boar by ceasing to elect incompetent Britain-hating Governments.
    I want to believe! I do! But...... eeeesh

    So many warning signs are flashing red. Like Chernobyl two hours before it went Chernobyl

    OK enuff. I shall hurl myself into some work. Later
  • Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Yes, that's correct. It's quite extraordinary how the Left, Miliband in particular, have been able to re-define reliance on fossil fuels as being literally unpatriotic. It's quite a turnaround. At one time it was the Right who thought they garnered political capital from the issue, presenting it as a kind of anti-socialistic battle. The other day I was speaking to a leading IT director from California. He was saying that politically his instincts were Republican, but these days he leant towards the Dems purely because of their environmental stance! The Left have won this battle. No doubt about it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.

    Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
    How much of that is because people don't believe the lights will go out?
    The only reason the lights didn't go out for a lot of people during the Ukraine invasion was because the government spent £67 billion making up for our exposure to global fossil fuel markets.

    That's why public opinion has turned like this.
  • ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    You mean overcast rather than cold. Cold doesn't matter for solar.
    But in December it is only light for about 8 hours a day - less in Scotland.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,960
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Will it be kept in condition so it can be switched back on in case of emergency?
    We have lots of other power stations burning gas, oil, waste and biomass. We don't need to mothball this coal one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,304
    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Will it be kept in condition so it can be switched back on in case of emergency?
    Nope. It is being demolished.
    Quite a sight when they take down the cooling towers:

    https://youtu.be/Wx-V2buLp5s?feature=shared
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,221
    Leon said:

    maxh said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    Private sector got such a hit during the pandemic. We need as large a private sector as possible in proportion to the size of the public sector - at the end of the day this pays for everything - and Labour is doing the opposite of what we need.
    As a leftie, I will admit to the seductive appeal of spending money that isn't really there. For example from 2010 until the pandemic I believed, and still believe, we should have used the opportunity afforded by historically low interest rates to borrow for investment as the rate of return on that investment would likely have been higher than the interest rate. We'd have a much stronger, more productive economy now if we did so. Austerity was criminally poor economic policy.

    And right now, I still believe the way out of the dysfunction Leon refers to is to invest in public services.

    But economic prosperity (or, more specifically, market sentiment about the UK economy) is a fickle thing. I wish it were not so, but it is. I genuinely can't see how the Labour party can be promising an end to austerity without committing itself to paying a lot more debt interest, at a lot higher rates than the last decade or so. And that seems a vicious circle.

    Can anyone paint a more optimistic picture?
    There is one ray of potential sunshine. The technology-that-must-not-be-mentioned (by me, at least)

    Potential game-changer for the entire world. Might make all this debate irrelevant, and soon
    Mebbee. But it'll still be a competition for relative competitive advantage in this new tech.

    That, or our economy will function but as a vassal state of China or whoever develops AI more successfully than us.

    One example - AI is already having big positive impacts on learning maths in school. But its expensive for schools to buy-in. I'm sure we could buy a cheaper Chinese variant but won't that simply lead to us giving away all our data to Chinese servers (and data is, surely, the daffodils/gold/oil of our age).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,909

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.

    Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
    Yawn. I doubt coal gets a great press in Germany either, but they are still razing towns to the ground to build coal mines because they prefer it to having no economy. Eventually, even the more credulous people here will catch up.
    The lack of coal plants doesn't bother me. There are gas power plants, and interconnects with Europe that can help there. What worries me is the lack of coal for the production of steel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,087

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    China seems to have burnt 2.8 billion tonnes of it last year by my calculations :D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    I've wittered on before about the economic implications of the Hinckley Point break price for UK manufacturing. I accept the need for us to head for net zero but we must be alert to the economic implications of the path chosen. At the moment it seems a collateral consideration at best and the priority is maximising external investment by guaranteeing high returns for the investors. The economic implications of this are horrendous.
    UK energy prices to industry are the highest in the world, 50% higher than Germany and France, and 4x those in the US.

    Miliband’s strategy appears to be to cement those high prices in place, to enable his Net Zero Agenda.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/26/britain-burdened-most-expensive-electricity-prices-in-world/
    The man is frighteningly economically illiterate. A real and present danger to our prosperity.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,482

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Yes, that's correct. It's quite extraordinary how the Left, Miliband in particular, have been able to re-define reliance on fossil fuels as being literally unpatriotic. It's quite a turnaround. At one time it was the Right who thought they garnered political capital from the issue, presenting it as a kind of anti-socialistic battle. The other day I was speaking to a leading IT director from California. He was saying that politically his instincts were Republican, but these days he leant towards the Dems purely because of their environmental stance! The Left have won this battle. No doubt about it.
    They will only have won it if they deliver on it.

    There is no sign - yet - of that delivery being a priority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,304

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I don't think anyone on here would disagree with you about that last point.

    But actually, I'm pretty confident we can manage without coal generation. We've already been doing so in effect for five years. And it's not really a useful backup as it takes so long to start up. I think we didn't actually *need* Ratcliffe but it was fired up as a precaution - and then used since it was online anyway even though it wasn't needed.

    A much more worrying issue is, what do we do when our nuclear plants are finally decommissioned? And that day is not far away and I see no plan to replace that base.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,870
    edited September 27

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Is there massive support for the Cayman Island employees drafted into the Government?
    There's a Quadwotsit board member of some kind who now has a government job in some climate department since Quadwotsit donated millions to the Labour Party

    Will Great British Energy be an effective subsidiary of Quadwotsit?

    Quadwotsit has a Cayman Islands subsidiary
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,190
    edited September 27
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    It doesn't really matter. Britain is set on a course for steep economic decline, and possible collapse, and it could arrive exceedingly quickly (cf Hemingway on bankruptcy)

    In fact, Britain reminds me of a cartoon character running off a cliff, the legs are still whirring, for a while it has felt like we were still advancing: we had the momentum of Empire still behind us, the acquired wealth and nous, the global relations and ambitions..

    ... but in reality we are a hugely overpopulated archipelago off northern Europe with a shit climate and struggling industries and a terrible reliance on a ponzi scheme of ill-advised migration which makes everything worse and worse and now we look down and realise we are suspended in mid-air....
    You're just a miserable declinist.
    Admittedly we're struggling with the political and economic aftermath of your ludicrous Brexit vote - which ended up driving you mad enough to vote Labour - but we'll sort ourselves out.
    Not just Brexit, though that managed to be both a symptom of the decline and probably a further twist in the spiral.

    The UK has been doing lots of spending on now and not much spending on stuff for the future for decades. Maybe Macmillan had a point with his family silver speech.

    Context for Rachel Reeves’s investment drive: the UK has had the lowest investment in the G7 for 24 of the last 30 years.

    https://bsky.app/profile/georgeeaton.bsky.social/post/3l554b6jvgn2r

    Because, for decades, that's what we've wanted.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,271
    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    Britain has been heading in the wrong direction for quite a while, and successive governments have kicked the can down the road.

    Eventually you run out of road.

    The Truss Experience demonstrated that the end of the road is close enough to constrain government budgets, but is it so close that a government can't avoid crashing into it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,087
    edited September 27
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    I've wittered on before about the economic implications of the Hinckley Point break price for UK manufacturing. I accept the need for us to head for net zero but we must be alert to the economic implications of the path chosen. At the moment it seems a collateral consideration at best and the priority is maximising external investment by guaranteeing high returns for the investors. The economic implications of this are horrendous.
    UK energy prices to industry are the highest in the world, 50% higher than Germany and France, and 4x those in the US.

    Miliband’s strategy appears to be to cement those high prices in place, to enable his Net Zero Agenda.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/26/britain-burdened-most-expensive-electricity-prices-in-world/
    The man is frighteningly economically illiterate. A real and present danger to our prosperity.
    His stuff on allowing more onshore wind for instance is correct. But the plan to get us 100% renewables by 2030 or whatever is unachievable and bonkers. There is no way on god's green earth we can be 100% renewable during a winter high at night.
    Energy policy seems to be either one thing or the other. The Tories were wrong to stop onshore wind, and Labour are wrong to stop all new north sea oil and gas licenses. The correct answer is to allow both.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567
    maxh said:

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
    I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.

    It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
    It's a genuine concern and shouldn't be dismissed, but in a broader CBA it's a minor issue. It would be a very small percentage of overall costs to turn the new lagoons into something valuable for wildlife, so that could be a mitigating condition.

    It's a bit like HS2 in that respect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,658
    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    I've wittered on before about the economic implications of the Hinckley Point break price for UK manufacturing. I accept the need for us to head for net zero but we must be alert to the economic implications of the path chosen. At the moment it seems a collateral consideration at best and the priority is maximising external investment by guaranteeing high returns for the investors. The economic implications of this are horrendous.
    UK energy prices to industry are the highest in the world, 50% higher than Germany and France, and 4x those in the US.

    Miliband’s strategy appears to be to cement those high prices in place, to enable his Net Zero Agenda.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/26/britain-burdened-most-expensive-electricity-prices-in-world/
    The man is frighteningly economically illiterate. A real and present danger to our prosperity.
    The Tories basically copied everything in his manifesto.

    Which perhaps proves your point... ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,482
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I don't think anyone on here would disagree with you about that last point.

    But actually, I'm pretty confident we can manage without coal generation. We've already been doing so in effect for five years. And it's not really a useful backup as it takes so long to start up. I think we didn't actually *need* Ratcliffe but it was fired up as a precaution - and then used since it was online anyway even though it wasn't needed.

    A much more worrying issue is, what do we do when our nuclear plants are finally decommissioned? And that day is not far away and I see no plan to replace that base.
    It's worse than that - we are moving the nation's fleet of vehicles over from ICE to a requirement for electricity to charge them.

    By 2035.

    I recently read that someone was poo-pooing that timetable. Because it will require two nuclear power station-sized sources of that electricity. Which will be far from being built. The experience of Hinkley C shows this to be true. But by 2035, there won't be ICE vehicles left to buy.

    Maybe I should buy horse futures. It's that - or walk.

    (I know, I know - we'll have to cycle instead...)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,087
    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    As with the notorious facebook poster, I think that's too long personally - And I really am no fan of JSO.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567
    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    I wait in anticipation for the concern about violent offenders being released to make way for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,658
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    As with the notorious facebook poster, I think that's too long personally - And I really am no fan of JSO.
    No about right given it was actual criminal damage with intent to a priceless painting, not a social media post
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,278
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    Apparently everything in Britain - from rails to trams to houses to power stations - to domestic heating - must cost 5 times what it costs everywhere else, meaning we will get poorer and poorer as we can't afford it, and all the rich people therefore flee the chilly, darkening nightmare

    We need a revolutionary government to break us out of this deathly doom loop. Starmer's Labour is certainly not that
    Britain is death by due process.

    It's very very hard to get approval and consent to build anything and then there's a huge amount of regulation and compliance in how it's done.

    Whole thing needs reviewing.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,567
    edited September 27

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I don't think anyone on here would disagree with you about that last point.

    But actually, I'm pretty confident we can manage without coal generation. We've already been doing so in effect for five years. And it's not really a useful backup as it takes so long to start up. I think we didn't actually *need* Ratcliffe but it was fired up as a precaution - and then used since it was online anyway even though it wasn't needed.

    A much more worrying issue is, what do we do when our nuclear plants are finally decommissioned? And that day is not far away and I see no plan to replace that base.
    It's worse than that - we are moving the nation's fleet of vehicles over from ICE to a requirement for electricity to charge them.

    By 2035.

    I recently read that someone was poo-pooing that timetable. Because it will require two nuclear power station-sized sources of that electricity. Which will be far from being built. The experience of Hinkley C shows this to be true. But by 2035, there won't be ICE vehicles left to buy.

    Maybe I should buy horse futures. It's that - or walk.

    (I know, I know - we'll have to cycle instead...)
    The problem with cycling is that cycling fuel (Greggs pastries) has suffered much high inflation than unleaded or electricity.

    This is a serious energy security concern imo.
  • HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    I disagree with them completely and am glad they were prosecuted but really not sure a custodial sentence is appropriate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,395
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    As with the notorious facebook poster, I think that's too long personally - And I really am no fan of JSO.
    Agree. I think a lengthy community service order would be far better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,304

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    I disagree with them completely and am glad they were prosecuted but really not sure a custodial sentence is appropriate.
    Perhaps they could have been put in the stocks for a couple of hours?

    My object all sublime
    I shall achieve in time —
    To let the punishment fit the crime —
    The punishment fit the crime;
    And make each prisoner pent
    Unwillingly represent
    A source of innocent merriment!
    Of innocent merriment!

    All prosy dull society sinners,
    Who chatter and bleat and bore,
    Are sent to hear sermons
    From mystical Germans
    Who preach from ten till four.*
    The amateur tenor, whose vocal villainies
    All desire to shirk,
    Shall, during off-hours,
    Exhibit his powers
    To Madame Tussaud's waxwork.

    *Today, we'd make them listen to @Leon talking about AI on a loop.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,278
    maxh said:

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
    I've probably told this story before but I was briefly on secondment at the RSPB whilst the Severn barrage was being discussed. The chief executive at the time was dead against it because of the impact on bird populations in the mudflats.

    It struck me then, and still does, as a piece of epic short-sightedness.
    The country is a nest of well-organised and well-funded special interest groups.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,954
    @PpollingNumbers
    🚨 New Nate Silver Model - win probability

    🔵 Harris 58%
    🔴 Trump 42%

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839664551177892285
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,658
    'Voters who ditched the Conservatives for Reform UK at the last election may be the most difficult for the Tories to win back, a new poll suggests.

    A Savanta survey conducted in the run-up to Conservative party conference in Birmingham this weekend shows people who backed Nigel Farage's party on 4 July are significantly more likely to say people like them will be most difficult for the Conservatives to win back over.

    Sixty two per cent of respondents who voted Reform at the General Election say Tory-to-Reform switchers will be the hardest for the Conservatives to persuade to return, according to polling shared exclusively with PoliticsHome.

    While that statistic may seem unsurprising, the equivalent figures for people who voted Labour and Lib Dem on 4 July are much lower at 33 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.'
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/reform-voters-hardest-for-tories-to-win-back-new-poll-suggests
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,658
    edited September 27

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    I disagree with them completely and am glad they were prosecuted but really not sure a custodial sentence is appropriate.
    For serious intentional criminal damage like this it is
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    I disagree with them completely and am glad they were prosecuted but really not sure a custodial sentence is appropriate.
    For serious intentional criminal damage like this it is
    Especially with regard to artwork of this importance.
  • HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    I disagree with them completely and am glad they were prosecuted but really not sure a custodial sentence is appropriate.
    What is the number of times that a person has to be arrested and convicted before you'd support a jail sentence? She's a prolific offender and eventually has to serve a decent period of time behind bars. It's what she wants and it's what she gets.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,087
    Maybe the JSO lady will share a cell with the Facebook keyboard warrior lady :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,909
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.

    Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
    Possibly because it's been so expensive to build here.
    I bet the backing would be far higher, were it cheaper.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,185

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    The Mili-phobia from the Right is entirely the wrong take on energy, both politically and in reality.

    Ukraine was a big wake up call to people in the UK. People now link fossil fuels to exposure to global arseholery, and renewables to energy security and good vibes.

    The polling supports this - massive support for renewables, including a large majority of Reform voters! GB Energy is Labour's most popular policy. This is Miliband's department.

    The BBC Scotland phone in when Ukraine kicked off was a succession of people who were apoplectic that their "100% renewable tariff" was going up in line with gas prices. People associate oil and gas with high costs, not renewables.
    Utter twaddle.
    Difficult reading:

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50249-how-do-britons-feel-about-expanding-renewable-energy
    Just makes the fall more precipitous when the implications are laid out. See the green's recent fortunes in Germany.
    Are the German Greens doing particularly badly? They are part of a completely dysfunctional and historically unpopular coalition government at the federal level. They have (according to current polling averages) lost 25% of their support since the 2021 election. Their coalition partners the SPD have lost 40% of their vote and the FDP have lost over 60% of their vote. In a way they are doing least badly of the governing parties.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,909
    It's just becoming comical at the NYT political desk.

    Left excerpt:
    Harris economic policies not detailed enough

    Right excerpt, next day:
    Harris's proposals too complex. Trump's "policies" are shorter, punchier, & easier to grasp

    https://x.com/susanbordson/status/1839498871224869182
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342

    Leon said:

    I begin to fear that @MaxPB's gloomiest predictions are correct. Britain might actually run out of credit under Starmer, or require some IMF intervention. It's like an airplane cockpit and all the dials are heading into the danger zone: flickering into the red

    Put it another way, the dysfunction of Britain on all levels means we will get poorer and poorer, which in turn means we will have to tax more and more; finally that means the rest of the rich will leave

    The UK is NYC in the 1970s, and NYC went bust

    Britain has been heading in the wrong direction for quite a while, and successive governments have kicked the can down the road.

    Eventually you run out of road.

    The Truss Experience demonstrated that the end of the road is close enough to constrain government budgets, but is it so close that a government can't avoid crashing into it?
    Yet we now apparently have Labour about the 're-write the fiscal rules' so they can spend more.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,342

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    As with the notorious facebook poster, I think that's too long personally - And I really am no fan of JSO.
    Agree. I think a lengthy community service order would be far better.
    Agree. Litter picking. It's what they would have wanted.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,074
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    As with the notorious facebook poster, I think that's too long personally - And I really am no fan of JSO.
    Perhaps judges are already taking into account the extra time off of a sentence to clear out the cell bed blockers.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,482
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I don't think anyone on here would disagree with you about that last point.

    But actually, I'm pretty confident we can manage without coal generation. We've already been doing so in effect for five years. And it's not really a useful backup as it takes so long to start up. I think we didn't actually *need* Ratcliffe but it was fired up as a precaution - and then used since it was online anyway even though it wasn't needed.

    A much more worrying issue is, what do we do when our nuclear plants are finally decommissioned? And that day is not far away and I see no plan to replace that base.
    It's worse than that - we are moving the nation's fleet of vehicles over from ICE to a requirement for electricity to charge them.

    By 2035.

    I recently read that someone was poo-pooing that timetable. Because it will require two nuclear power station-sized sources of that electricity. Which will be far from being built. The experience of Hinkley C shows this to be true. But by 2035, there won't be ICE vehicles left to buy.

    Maybe I should buy horse futures. It's that - or walk.

    (I know, I know - we'll have to cycle instead...)
    The problem with cycling is that cycling fuel (Greggs pastries) has suffered much high inflation than unleaded or electricity.

    This is a serious energy security concern imo.
    Perhaps Labour needs to nationalise Greggs....?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,035

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Currently 61% wind and solar.

    If this keeps up for three more days, it's possible coal electricity production has already ended.

    That also depends of course on whether they need to burn off the last stocks of coal.

    Hmm. But a serious question. What happens in December or January if we get a cold, calm couple of weeks? Do we still have enough non wind/solar capacity to keep the system running?

    As I recall we still needed Radcliffe last winter when demand was outstripping other supply. What happens this winter if there is a repeat?

    And a follow up - where is the tidal we should have been building for the last 2 decades?

    I think we could probably come to a PB consensus on that point.
    Oh absolutely. But that still doesn't answer the question. What do we do now?
    Order a couple of

    1) tidal ponds
    2) small modular nukes
    3) ?

    Find out which is best. Then order all of them.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,074

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I don't want to be Old Mister Gloomy-gusset, but this is also quite depressing, and absolutely crucial:

    "Yesterday's data dump from the Government also showed we have the highest domestic electricity prices in the IEA. On a par with Germany, but ~80% above the IEA median, 3.5X Korea and 2.8X USA. Prices like these are an existential threat to the economy. (1/2)"

    https://x.com/7Kiwi/status/1839569654366216407

    Britain is deliberately setting itelf on a path of absolute economic decline. We cannot compete when we cripple outselves like this. Labour will helplessly preside over a stagnant economy (or actually make it worse thanks to Ed Miliband), so they will get booted out in 2029 and we will probably get Farage as PM

    Our nuclear prices are 4 - 6 times those of South Korea.

    We could, however, still build ten tidal lagoon power statons in the next 10 years. They will still be producing power for 180 years.

    Apparently everything in Britain - from rails to trams to houses to power stations - to domestic heating - must cost 5 times what it costs everywhere else, meaning we will get poorer and poorer as we can't afford it, and all the rich people therefore flee the chilly, darkening nightmare

    We need a revolutionary government to break us out of this deathly doom loop. Starmer's Labour is certainly not that
    Britain is death by due process.

    It's very very hard to get approval and consent to build anything and then there's a huge amount of regulation and compliance in how it's done.

    Whole thing needs reviewing.
    Sclerosis by process.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,087
    edited September 27
    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Happily, they're very easy to build.
    ... and expensive to run.
    LuckyGuy is just fantasising.
    No one will ever build another coal fire station in the UK.
    More energy from coal has a 5% approval rating in the UK. Gas is 7%.

    Solar and tidal 74%. Onshore wind 59%. The big shame is Nuclear, down at 30%.
    Possibly because it's been so expensive to build here.
    I bet the backing would be far higher, were it cheaper.
    Hinkley Point C is mahoosively overbudget and late - What's it up to now, £50 Bn and ready by 2031 ?

    And I have to remind myself that is in fact nowhere near Leicester.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,728
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    End of an era arriving - final UK coal power station to close (Ratcliffe on Soar) on 30th September. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq5e4n5z888t

    We still have (at least one) coal mine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberpergwm

    Will it be kept in condition so it can be switched back on in case of emergency?
    Nope. It is being demolished.
    Quite a sight when they take down the cooling towers:

    https://youtu.be/Wx-V2buLp5s?feature=shared
    They should retain them for shooting rock videos. Awesome accoustics.
    https://youtu.be/6rKAMuMYaPM?si=RemQS8yzCNAFYkOP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,658
    Scott_xP said:

    @PpollingNumbers
    🚨 New Nate Silver Model - win probability

    🔵 Harris 58%
    🔴 Trump 42%

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839664551177892285

    @PpollingNumbers
    ·
    2h
    #New General election poll - Arizona

    🔴 Trump 48% (+6)
    🔵 Harris 42%

    Suffolk #B - 500 LV - 9/24
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839631181718978883

    #New General election poll - Minnesota

    🔵 Harris 50% (+6)
    🔴 Trump 44%

    Last poll (8/25) - 🔵 Harris +5

    Survey USA #A+ - 646 LV - 9/26
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839638721731194923

    #New General election poll - New York

    🔵 Harris 54% (+14)
    🔴 Trump 40%

    Emerson #B - 1000 LV - 9/25
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839644011000127902
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,185
    Scott_xP said:

    @PpollingNumbers
    🚨 New Nate Silver Model - win probability

    🔵 Harris 58%
    🔴 Trump 42%

    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1839664551177892285

    Now he's on exactly the same numbers as 538, but his model is much noisier/faster moving - which I suppose gets more publicity but makes him look a bit silly imho
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JSO activists jailed for 2 years and 20 months for criminal damage after throwing paint on a Van Gogh painting
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly7zy3d3exo

    I disagree with them completely and am glad they were prosecuted but really not sure a custodial sentence is appropriate.
    For serious intentional criminal damage like this it is
    What is the painting cut off point for custodial? Is it by artist? Maybe 2 yrs for a Van Gogh, 1 for a Monet and community service for a Vermeer?
This discussion has been closed.